In short
Fast Money episode covers: Kevin Warsh being sworn in as the new Fed chair and what it means for inflation, interest rates, and the yield curve; OpenAI’s upcoming IPO filing (5/22/26) and other major IPOs; market signals from semiconductors (NVIDIA underperformance), Bitcoin/crypto options activity, and earnings catalysts (Dell and Salesforce); plus Memorial Day travel demand amid higher gas prices.
Guests and backgrounds
Ben Emmons, founder/CIO at FedWatch Advisors; Oliver Rennick, options reporter at SIBO Chicago; Laura Rippey, managing partner at Alumni Ventures (early investor in Aura).
Key claims
Warsh may prioritize shrinking the Fed balance sheet to keep rates unchanged; a balance-sheet approach could steepen the yield curve, benefiting banks and “AI-adjacent” sectors like utilities. Bitcoin’s implied volatility in the IBIT ETF fell below 40 and options enthusiasm is weak, suggesting the trade is “fundamentally broken.” NVIDIA is underperforming because investors rotate to other AI chip beneficiaries (e.g., Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, power chips). IPO demand could be strong, with venture-backed retail access and “unlock” energy.
Notable examples
10-year Treasury near 4.7%, VIX ~16; Qualcomm and Texas Instruments strength; MicroStrategy call sale; Aura valuation growth (under $100M to ~$11B); Dell shares up ~17% ahead of earnings; Salesforce down ~32% YTD; AAA/Sojourn data on Memorial Day travel and hotel softness.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Overview and Fed Chair Transition
1:07 to 1:40
Discussion on recent market performance and the swearing-in of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair.
“Kevin Warsh officially taking the reins of the central bank today.”
Implications of Rising Inflation
1:45 to 2:26
Analyzing the pressures of inflation and its implications for Kevin Warsh.
“On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Braxtonworth, Steve Grasso, and Bono and Eisen.”
Expectations from Kevin Warsh
2:27 to 3:05
Insights on what to expect from Warsh and his approach to the Fed's policy.
“President Trump, who has long been calling for lower rates, suggested he wouldn't put the pressure on the new central bank chief.”
Market Dynamics and Rate Speculations
3:05 to 5:12
Discussion on the dynamics of the market and speculations on interest rates.
“at least long term inflation readings went up to the highest they've been in seven months.”
Balance Sheet Strategy and Market Reactions
5:13 to 6:39
Exploration of Kevin Warsh's balance sheet strategy and its potential market impact.
“And all of a sudden we're going to we're going to get a peak of that June 17th in the first Fed meeting.”
Volatility in the Market
6:40 to 10:01
Analyzing the current volatility in the market and potential future trends.
“I mean, he has plenty of cover not to do anything right now.”
Yield Curve and Financial Implications
10:02 to 14:00
Discussion on the implications of the yield curve and what it means for financial institutions.
“So hedge in terms of I'm not willing to just solely be extremely beta levered to high beta, high growth, non-revenue type of names.”
Volatility in the Rates Market
14:00 to 16:40
Discussing the current volatility in the rates market and its implications.
“I guess this is just getting to the conversation of how much volatility is in the rates market today from here.”
AI Trade and Financial Sector Benefits
16:40 to 19:30
Exploring how AI and financial sectors could benefit from a steepening yield curve.
“Ben's a thoughtful guy, and I'm thinking about things.”
Ongoing Negotiations and Market Impacts
19:30 to 21:30
Analyzing the implications of the U.S.-Iran negotiations on market dynamics.
“Although, as I understand it, he actually got married in Florida.”
Show all 21 chapters
Sponsor: 99% Invisible
21:30 to 22:38
Ad spot for the new podcast 'A History of the United States in 100 Objects'.
“This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee, right here on CNBC.”
NVIDIA's Market Performance
22:38 to 28:00
Discussing NVIDIA's underperformance relative to its peers and overall market trends.
“broken expiration, and max wager amount.”
NVIDIA's Market Performance
28:11 to 29:04
Discussing NVIDIA's underperformance relative to its peers and overall market trends.
“Just buy any four, any size, and get the fifth one free.”
Bitcoin Under Pressure
29:17 to 33:23
Discussion on Bitcoin's recent decline and options market sentiment.
“Bitcoin under pressure ahead of the long weekend, even as risk appetite, at least for tech, sends stock markets higher.”
IPO Euphoria and Market Trends
33:26 to 39:44
Analysis of upcoming IPOs and the impact on market dynamics.
“Stocks higher across the board to close out a winning week.”
Earnings Season Outlook
39:45 to 42:01
Preview of upcoming earnings reports for Dell and Salesforce.
“A lot of exciting areas that she's investing in and has invested in, for sure.”
Market Trends: Dell and CRM Insights
42:01 to 42:58
Learn about the contrasting market performances of Dell and CRM, and the factors influencing their stock movements.
“Well, they're equal and opposite of one on the right.”
Memorial Day Travel Projections
42:58 to 43:30
Discover projections for Memorial Day travel amidst rising gas prices and inflation.
“This weekend marks the unofficial start of summer, and millions are projected to travel in what could be a record-setting Memorial Day holiday.”
Consumer Behavior Shifts in Travel
43:30 to 44:30
Explore how rising costs are altering travel plans and preferences among different income groups.
“At this quick check, it's right off the New York State Thruway a few months ago.”
Travel Uncertainty and Economic Factors
44:30 to 46:02
Understand the uncertainty in travel bookings due to economic conditions and consumer confidence.
“The Bank of America put out a summer travel note saying 40 percent of lower-income Americans have no travel plans, and their credit card data shows lower spending on travel so far this year.”
Final Trades and Sign-off
46:02 to 46:34
Catch the final trades shared by the hosts and the closing remarks of the show.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Say you always wanted to have a backyard oasis. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the most out of your money so you can go out and live a little. Isn't that why we work so hard? To have some fun with our money? Like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one. So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 19 million customers today at Empower.com. Not an Empower client paid or sponsored. The wrongs we must right. The fights we must win.
0:38The future we must secure together for our nation. This is what's in front of us. This determines what's next for all of us. We are Marines. We were made for this.
1:02Tim Seymour:Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. The new Fed chair sworn in. Kevin Warsh officially taking the reins of the central bank today. But what awaits him as inflation pressures continue to dominate and what could he mean for policy and the markets? And countdown to IPO. OpenAI about to become the latest mega unicorn to file its prospectus. What we can expect from the stock when it finally hits the market, and what's in store for all the other heavyweights filing this week. Plus, is there trouble lurking in the Bitcoin market?
1:33Tim Seymour:Dell soars ahead of earnings next week, and a chip ETF posts solid gains without the help of its biggest component. What NVIDIA's underperformance this week says about the state of the semi-trade. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Braxtonworth, Steve Grasso, and Bono and Eisen. And we start off with a strong end to what has been a volatile week, The Dow gaining about 300 points, setting a record close for a second straight day and hitting an intraday high for the first time since February. The S &P and Nasdaq also with solid gains.
2:04Tim Seymour:The S &P notching its eighth straight week in the green, its best run since the end of 2023. That seemed well out of reach just on Tuesday when the yield on the 10-year treasuries were closing in on 4.7 percent, the highest level in over a year. Inflation fears putting pressure on rates. And while yields pulled back by some on Friday, this morning's final read for consumer sentiment in May came in at the lowest level on record. That is the kind of economy being inherited by Kevin Warsh, who was officially sworn in as Fed chair earlier today. President Trump, who has long been calling for lower rates, suggested he wouldn't put the pressure on the new central bank chief.
2:39I want Kevin to be totally independent. I want him to be independent and just do a great job. Don't look at me. Don't look at anybody. Just do your own thing and do a great job.
2:51Tim Seymour:So what can we expect from Warsh and the Fed and what will it mean for the markets? Tim, what do you think? I think we can expect him to do what needs to be done. I do think we can also expect him to not really be able to do much. And we had also an additional, you know, the consumer readings were also on inflation out one year, at least long term inflation readings went up to the highest they've been in seven months. We have all kinds of dynamics in terms of what we're getting from the inflation readings. I'm sure we'll talk a lot more about that. But I just look at the market going into a long weekend.
3:24And the fact of the matter is we hit fresh new highs on semis tells me where the risk appetite is. Again, this would be a place to be pairing. I have a VIX down with a 16 handle on it. I have a dynamic where we have nothing new in terms of an Iran U.S. settlement. And yet equities, especially the parts of the trade that we've been talking most about over the last couple of weeks, that rotation within the AI innovation trade continues to work. And other parts of the economy, I thought it was a very interesting day for industrials. It was an interesting day for the fundamentals around health care.
3:54There's a couple of drivers there we'll probably talk about. So I thought it was a very strong week. We were in a very different place last Friday. You're right. We were talking about yields.
4:02Tim Seymour:Was it a strong week, Carter? Well, I mean, the key thing about yields, of course, is that while the 10-year pulled in, two-year closed out or near the high, right? So the 2.10 spread coming down. And that's really the tell, right? if indeed, and it speaks to, obviously, there's a new person in the seat. It's unclear how, you know, politics aside, how you want you to be independent, but maybe you didn't want the last guy to be independent, holding that aside. And so the question is, from here, are higher rates the boogeyman? I mean, that is ultimately it, right? Because if you have the nirvana of I can always count on a 10-year cost of money at four and a half, I can play with my multiple.
4:42I, as an analyst, I, as an investor, a PM, an individual, I can make it any multiple I want. And so we have had that Goldilocks experience. And for now, you know, rates are still quite benign at the long end.
4:54Tim Seymour:Even when we tested 4.7 percent? Well, I'm just saying, you know, it's rate of change, right? If we kept going and we pressed on, but pulling in from almost, you know, what was looking kind of scary, noticed the market all of a sudden shook it off. Right. That's true. You know, there's some unknowns about Kevin Walsh. I mean, he hasn't expressed his views on the economy or interest rates for very long, for months now at this point, Steve. And all of a sudden we're going to we're going to get a peak of that June 17th in the first Fed meeting. And I'm just wondering what you think, if he has marching orders or the impact on the markets here.
5:29So I think that President Trump is going to be OK with Chairman Walsh. It's hard to get used to say a different name. if the markets continue to rise, I think the president will be OK with rates where they're at. And if the if the market does fail, then he'll then he'll look back on interest rates. But let's look at where Kevin Warsh started. 2006 or so, I believe the Fed's balance sheet is what his real target is. He wants to shrink that. How does he shrink it without raising rates? That's the problem that he's going to run into. But I think we're going to be focused more on the balance sheet and how he goes about it than the actual headline rate.
6:16And as long as the headline rate stays here, companies have been growing earnings by the tune of 12, 18, 25 percent, depending on which ones that you count, the biggest mega cap names or down to the smaller names. So I think the market's OK right now. And I think the Fed is OK right now. And I think Trump's OK.
6:38Tim Seymour:Maybe the ability to use a balance sheet instead of an actual outright hike is sort of, you know, his out, Bono, in terms of complying with what President Trump wants. I mean, he has plenty of cover not to do anything right now. Correct. I mean, given the data and the uncertainty, et cetera. But if you go ahead with the balance sheet maneuvering, you could accomplish a rate hike effectively by doing that and still be able to say, I'm not hiking rates. Yeah, I tend to agree. And it seems to be, you know, given its history and some of previous statements, the most likely path forward. With that said, I would like to remind everyone that we did have the whole 2019 incident.
7:17So just the pace of QT and whether or not those reserves are withdrawn at a rate that the interbanking system can deal with and sustain is going to be, you know, the way forward without creating an additional need for volatility there. So I do think that that is a kind of way of threading the needle. But I do want to emphasize that that is not a foolproof method either, harking back seven years ago.
7:46Tim Seymour:You mentioned the interesting market dynamic. I mean, I'm just wondering if you think the Fed is just going to be sort of background noise right now because we have so much macro, just economic inflation pressures in the forefront to deal with in terms of the markets. This has been an interesting discussion because, I mean, what Carter said is really true. And Bruce Kasman, who's the chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, who's been doing this forever, and I think he's one of the best. He has his piece is Goldilocks is leaving the building. and Goldilocks really is that at least inflation was somewhat tethered around a level that people felt good about.
8:17I think the Fed has a much bigger voice here than we might want them to. And, you know, the fact that Scott Besson has given our new Fed chairman the chance to, you know, given Walsh a chance actually to have some cover to really do nothing. But you had Chris Waller out there, another Fed governor that really basically says remove the ease and bias. Yeah. So so I think the Fed is is a lot more in play. But I think the Fed's a lot more in play because we have bottleneck inflation. We have input price inflation from higher commodities that didn't just start this year. And again, the dynamic in Silicon Valley around some of those bottlenecks, I don't think we've even yet to feel.
8:55Tim Seymour:Yeah. I mean, the Fed being in play, I mean, in terms of like the uncertainty surrounding what the next move is, because you can make an argument that it is almost equal. The odds of a hike or a cut at this point, who knows? Futures have done it. I mean, the futures markets have told you we've got a height coming. So, I mean, that dispels volatility. I mean, that sounds like volatility to me in the markets. Yes, and in fact, and it's obviously been a very volatile equity market has had, despite VIX, right, because that's not really measuring volatility as you imply here. It's the huge run-up, the equally impressive collapses, and then the ricochets that take you on to new highs in individual areas of the market.
9:35That's very volatile. And the question is, of course, which we all ask, is are we due for some sort of volatile pullback? Because continuing higher here for a ninth week, that's not volatility, right? It's if you get drawdowns, as we saw in semis, as we saw in certain banks over the past three, five weeks. My hunch is that the volatility in the market is higher and you get a higher VIX.
9:57Tim Seymour:Baudoin, I'm curious, how hedged are you at this point in time with the markets where they are and where we are in the Iran conflict? um heads in terms of option contracts not very um just because i don't see the point in spending premium at this present moment but heads via barbell approaches i.e i definitely am active in the treasury market on the front end of the curve i own some of the ai and ai adjacent i have broadened out into some of the more industrial type of complex names utilities. So hedge in terms of I'm not willing to just solely be extremely beta levered to high beta, high growth, non-revenue type of names.
10:40I find myself not really chasing trends. So hedge in terms of that. Yeah.
10:46Tim Seymour:Steve, how about you? Yeah. So if you think about it, right, so the market has done what the Fed could have done with raising rates. So I don't think they have to raise rates of the market did it for him. So I don't think they have to pile on there. But also to Carter's point, well, volatility. We're going to go from MAG7 to MAG3 names that are coming out in IPO. So if those names, it's a zero-sum game to a large extent in the marketplace. You're going to have to make room for those names in your portfolio. There's got to be some forced selling because there's going to be passive buying right after those names come out.
11:30You have to make room in them. And that could come as early as the next week, week and a half, making room for those. So that could be pressure on everyone's portfolio. All right.
11:40Tim Seymour:Let's bring in Ben Emmons, founder and chief investment officer at FedWatch Advisors. Ben, great to see you and good to get your take on this new Fed chairman. What do you think his biggest priority is at this point coming in? Good to see you too, Melissa. His biggest priority will be to try to strike this balance between those who want to potentially see the Fed raise rates because of inflation concerns against him actually trying to push forward the reform, which will really be, I think, the hallmark of that is that balance sheet that you were just discussing. and I think he's going to try to get to a point where he's got the committee on his hand to say, let's continue to shrink that balance sheet and try to keep rates unchanged to press against inflation.
12:26And that's a tightrope. That's a real tightrope policy. So we'll see if he succeeds. If he does and inflation moderates, it would ultimately be a Goldilocks opportunity for bonds and stocks together. So we'll see how it plays out. I think for June, the Fed meeting, quite contentious meeting, I guess, but it will keep the cars close to its vest and not make too much statement on rate increases particularly.
12:50Tim Seymour:Do you think the statement changes as Governor Waller was advocating in terms of taking out the bias, the easing statement? There's a good chance that that happens. And because it will be probably worded that it becomes more like neutral, neutral enough that he has the option to go either back to rate cuts or if needed, then raise rates. I guess that's what it comes down to. But it's not an easy discussion, right, because for him, I don't know if you saw this headline, but right before the show, President Trump was out there like we're going to bring down rates quickly. Now that this indicates to me, again, he has high expectations as worse follows through on that on that particular part of the mandate.
13:28So it's a tough decision, but I guess I guess they will take it out. Ben, so it's Tim. Thanks for joining us. And I both reading your notes and this conversation. so we know that the curve flattened this week. It was kind of a bear flattening, although maybe you could argue that the long end actually just came down off of oversold levels. Thinking about for investors who probably care less about what's going on with the yield curve, but they know possible implications for banks and other cyclical parts of the economy. Do you think that we're going to see the yield curve steepen or is there really not a lot of room?
14:00I guess this is just getting to the conversation of how much volatility is in the rates market today from here. Actually, I think that you could steepen if Walsh gets sort of his consensus around that balance sheet policy. Because what that does is actually you drain the reserves and kind of replace reserves with short term treasuries, which brings those yields down. At the same time, you're putting pressure on the long end of the curve because the Fed owns more than 35 percent of the outstanding of 10 and 30 treasuries. So that will be the steepening part, and that will actually benefit the banks.
14:35We know that banks trade well on steepening yield curve. So I would say that it could happen. What you saw this week was more of a, I guess, a bit of a counterreaction, because the rate hike itself is now fully priced at the end of this year. That wasn't really in the yield curve. That's in the yield curve now. So I think we can potentially see the steepening again, if particularly worse gets its way with this balance sheet strategy.
14:59Tim Seymour:And so you're actually saying belong financials. I mean, you're sort of positioning around that scenario. Yeah, I do. I mean, I think that it's not only the financials that could benefit. It's also actually indirectly the AI trade because, you know, utilities, power companies, they actually benefit from a steeper yield curve too and maybe even some of the cyclicals. So a steeper yield curve is not necessarily negative. It could actually be for the markets a signal of like you're bringing the balance sheet down. You're trying to press on inflation and actually support growth that way. And that, too, will be reflected in the yield curve, you know, higher growth expectations.
15:35So I think it's ultimately a signal to markets of like we're not slamming the brakes here. We're trying to keep the economy going, which was the message from the president to watch today. Don't get in the way of the strong economy. If you don't do that, then it's actually a broadening trade.
15:51Tim Seymour:How does the AI trade benefit from a steepening yield curve? Well, I mean, many of the, Melissa, of these companies, particularly if I think of indirect companies, right, like utilities or power companies or related infrastructure companies, they tend to be performing better when the yield curve gets steeper, just like the banks. I guess they are able to fund themselves more favorably and therefore rally in that way. That's, I think, the indirect way of the AI traders benefiting. On top of that, growth expectations are driving the economy. I think is good for the semi-trade in itself because it's really driving the economy.
16:28Tim Seymour:Ben, good to see you. Thank you. Thank you. Ben Emmons, do you agree with that assessment in terms of a steepening yield curve? I mean, I always think of the borrowing aspect for the AI trade. Ben's a thoughtful guy, and I'm thinking about things. That was a pretty bullish interpretation of what Warsh could mean, the guy that was supposed to be, yeah, you know, now independent and typically a smaller Fed balance sheet and less Fed is our tighter conditions typically. But that's that is very bullish in a sense to the market that there's a commitment there to to essentially get the balance sheet under control.
17:02However, they do that. I do think that banks look very interesting here. I think in a world where we can actually go at least hold serve in terms of where the economy is growing and actually get some of this under control. what we've seen also just on the levels of the charts. I don't know if cars are going to view that. A lot of the banks, the money center banks, actually had a chance to sell off a lot more, and those were uptrends that have kind of held. Yeah, I mean, a very sort of mixed bag, right? So Citi's been sort of the standout, but yet Bank of America, Wells Fargo, really have rolled over hard, JP in the middle.
17:31The two best standout charts absolutely would be Goldman Sachs and Warren Stanley. But I think it's important to state this, of course, that the sector overall, financials, over the past year is up 3%. I mean, it could not be worse. Obviously, there are big things like Berkshire and the big insurance companies. To be up 3 % when the market's up, you know, 30, that's a problem.
17:51Tim Seymour:Oil prices settling slightly higher today, but down for the week. Markets continue to look for signs of progress and talks between the U.S. and Iran as we head into the long weekend. CNBC's Eamon Javers has the latest developments. Eamon. Hey there, Melissa. a news agency affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, is quoting a foreign ministry spokesman pouring cold water on the idea that negotiations with the United States are close to a deal. The spokesperson saying, we cannot necessarily say that we have reached a point where an agreement is close, this report said. Now that comes after the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said yesterday that Iran was reviewing the Trump administration's latest proposal for bringing an end to the war.
18:38President Trump has said that he was prepared to wait a few more days to get answers from Tehran. Now, earlier in the week, he said he was holding off on additional U.S. strikes on Iran in the hopes that these negotiations would bear fruit. Still, the latest comment seems to indicate that the protracted stalemate in the war continues for now, with the U.S. military unable to force a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranians unable to force the U.S. to stand down on its own blockade of Iranian shipping. Now, one indicator that is raising eyebrows in Washington is that President Trump said today that he's not going to go to his son Don Jr.'s wedding this weekend, citing the ongoing situation in Iran in his comments to reporters yesterday for that.
19:23So whether that means he expects a breakthrough over the weekend or not is a little bit unclear, Melissa. Back over to you.
19:31Tim Seymour:Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers. Although, as I understand it, he actually got married in Florida. I mean, legally married in Florida. But anyway, it is something to sort of like what is behind that? Could there be a breakthrough coming? Could there be strikes? I don't know. You could look at it the other way. Bono, and it is amazing, though, that the markets tend to look at everything optimistically. Yes, but as Carter mentioned earlier, we're coming from a Monday and Tuesday that had an uptick in volatility. So I think coming from that place, we're establishing that as key zero. We've transitioned.
Read the full transcript
20:05We haven't had a blow up. We haven't had any additional volatility around that. We've had some statements that seem to be coming out of Iran that suggest that they're going to put together a governing body over the Shade of Hormuz. But we haven't had an exacerbation of the situation. And I think the longer we go with this being here and we see the implications, I think the latency of that allows people to focus on other things to a certain extent.
20:30Tim Seymour:Yeah, Steve. Well, first of all, if by President Trump's comments, I see that as there'll be an escalation because he could take a victory lap in the Bahamas a lot easier than he could call for strikes from the Bahamas. So I think you're going to see an escalation potentially. I favor that, those odds a little bit better. When you look at the overall market, though, the broadening out to me, healthy, but still, for me, it's people just betting on the fact that we have 18 percent on average earnings growth. And until that subsides, people are still going to rush into this. Coming up, chipmakers rallying to records, but the biggest of the big, is sitting out the move, why NVIDIA isn't getting in on the party, and what it spells out for the semi-trade next.
21:22Tim Seymour:Plus, Bitcoin bumbling along, what's behind the crypto's meandering move lower, and why options traders say this trade could be fundamentally broken. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back in tune.
21:37This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee, right here on CNBC.
21:44A History of the United States in 100 Objects is a brand new podcast from 99 % Invisible and BBC Studios. Each week, we're looking at a different object from across American history with a unique story to tell about who we've been, what we've built, and what we've allowed ourselves to forget. Some of these objects are well known, many are not, but all of them carry the story of how we got to this moment. Find a history of the United States in 100 objects on the 99 % Invisible Feed, wherever you get your podcasts.
22:38broken expiration, and max wager amount. See full terms at fanduel.com slash sportsbook. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. The wrongs we must right. The fights we must win. The future we must secure together for our nation. This is what's in front of us. This determines what's next for all of us. We are Marines. We were made for this.
23:36Tim Seymour:And that, of course, would be Nvidia closing out the week down four and a half percent. The stock failing to get off the mat even after reporting another blowout quarter on Wednesday. So what do we make of this? We all sort of pointed to relative. I mean, it had run into it, but before that underperformance relative to the sector. And then we have the performance this week. Yeah. So this is curious here. Look, I don't I don't think we should vilify Nvidia for even how it's traded to this point. I mean, it's just a big underperformer relative to peers. I mean, it had had a nice run. These numbers, I'm not going to rehash them.
24:09We all know what was going on there. And I just think it's more about the move in Texas Instruments and Qualcomm that makes NVIDIA look so astounding. But this is the same rotation. I mean, Qualcomm now has basically got three product categories where suddenly there's fresh new life. There's the industrial chip part of their business. and it's global in nature, but that the CPU offering is something that's going to continue to kind of expand across those two or three different product lines. So I think it's more about that. By the way, you could have bought Qualcomm for all those people that have been watching this.
24:45Qualcomm traded below$200 as of some point intraday on the 19th. So it is a case where you've had some big moves in some of these names. I'm less here to say NVIDIA is a failure than I am to say that there's just other stuff people want to own.
25:00Tim Seymour:Yeah, they're looking for the next sort of AI play. I mean, take a look at the upgrade for Texan today. The analysts at Seaport saying it's power chips now, right? Controlling the electricity distribution is very important now. So Texan is going to win from that. So, Steve, we're just seeing this sort of again and again where people are fanning out looking for the next AI pop. Yeah, they're looking for beta in the marketplace. So NVIDIA has run and it's been a stellar name, but everyone is making their own chips and sort of diversifying away. And NVIDIA is still crushing it and still has market share there.
25:36But to your point, they want to see where they could capture lightning in a bottle. A lot of these names have also run already. I find the valuation on ARM a little suspect, though. But I do appreciate that they have 99 % market share in phones. And that's 50 % of their revenues. So they're not going to lose phones. So any of the incremental that they get is another tailwind. But I would not be a buyer of NVIDIA. But I've been saying that for the last year. I mean, I think it gets back to some of the classic rules of investing, which we know are, well, not infallible. Please remind us what those are.
26:17Yes, but not infallible, but reliable. And we know that the foreshadowing is a real thing, just as it is in life in NVIDIA. As we've talked about, it was foreshadowing. I've not kept up. I'm the big one. I'm the champion. I'm the most valuable enterprise in the world. But I've not kept up for one month and six months and eight months. And that relative performance is a factor. It's what Alpha is all about, is key. And momentum. and Dell's been very strong and it's stronger today. I mean, these are some of the most, and the second thing, of course, is that there's no such thing as good or bad news, right?
26:50There is only news. Bidia came out with good news, not always, it was just news, but no, no, it was good. The dividend, they went from a penny to 25 cents. They did a buyback. The thing was better on the top line, better, well, if the stock is down, then it's bad news. There is no such thing as good or bad news. It's how the market ran. Right away after the print, the market said, not good enough.
27:10Tim Seymour:So is this a pair of twos or worse than a pair of twos? Well, in and of itself, it's a poker game here. That's right. It's a perfectly healthy chart, right? But if given choices, it is not keeping up. And that's what the job is, is not only keep up, but to beat the competition in any endeavor. And so whether it's getting great inflation or in anything you do, if you're the last in the group, but you're still up, it doesn't that doesn't mean anything. You underperformed. OK, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Bitcoin going broke? Why options traders are souring on the crypto and whether a policy pivot in Washington can reignite this stalled out trade?
27:53Plus, IP opening the floodgates, the wave of big name companies racing to go public. What early filings are revealing and how a trio of trillion dollar listings could reshape the market. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ Market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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29:16Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Bitcoin under pressure ahead of the long weekend, even as risk appetite, at least for tech, sends stock markets higher. What's more concerning for crypto investors is how this notoriously volatile asset now seems to be stuck in a rut. In fact, some options traders think Bitcoin is fundamentally broken. And Oliver Rennick is at the SIBO in Chicago with more of this. Oliver. Thanks, Melissa. A lot of things went right for the market this week. VIX fell back below 17. The Dow made all-time highs. Software stocks back in a bull market. But what's not going right is crypto.
29:51Bitcoin shed another$3 ,000. And Michael Saylor's strategy dropped 9%. Here's the options angle. The market's biggest movers lately have been propelled by heavy bullish options trading. And we're just not seeing that kind of enthusiasm in the crypto names. One big tell is that implied volatility in the IBIT Bitcoin ETF just slipped below 40, an all-time low since options traded on the product starting 18 months ago. For an asset whose volatility was its main appeal, that's a bad look, possibly fundamentally broken, especially when Bitcoin's down, when stocks are up. And then there was one final gut punch before the weekend, a$100 million deep in the money call sale in MicroStrategy, MSTR, five minutes before the bell.
30:43That's big capital. Just giving up on this name. Or in crypto parlance, perhaps a beached whale, Melissa.
30:51Tim Seymour:Oliver, thank you. Oliver Rennick at SIBO. Bonwin, you're the options expert tonight. So I go to you. Is that how you would interpret the verdict on Bitcoin? Well, I agree that it's a high beta play or historically has been a high beta play. And that is the appeal of options traders. And the fact that you're seeing implied volatility collapse means that we haven't realized that volatility. I'm not sure if I can tease out directionally whether that's good or bad. In fact, I would likely, given the history of the name, I'd probably be a better buyer of options, given the fact that you typically want that insurance when you least expect that you'll need it.
31:31Tim Seymour:That is a good point there. Steve, you're pointing out Bitcoin. I mean, Oliver's point is, you know, as a measure of risk, it doesn't work either anymore. And it used to. Yeah, nor does gold, quite frankly. So the two things that we thought we sort of quasi figured out, we have no clue what they're doing. I think the stablecoin topic has really sucked a lot of air out of the room. If you think about it, you have two stablecoins that are probably 80 % of the market, and you have Bitcoin and Ethereum that used to be 80 % of the market, and they gave up probably about 10 % to stablecoins. The way I look at it is I'm staggered owning Ethereum now because the infrastructure that stable coins are built on are on Ethereum's infrastructure.
32:19So Bitcoin can be broken and Bitcoin can have a tough time and a tough slog. But it's usually when everyone is betting against it where you see a massive face rip rally. You know, I'm hoping for that. I'm hoping it's not what he said, that it's broken. I'm hoping for a rally back. But I don't really see that happening anytime soon. What do you think, Carter? Well, so many things come to mind. The first thing is, listen to everyone, what happened to all those people, those laser eyes? Remember the laser eyes, all those Bitcoin people, the laser eyes?
32:52Tim Seymour:What happened? I don't know. Lasers went out. Lasers went out. The enthusiasm's gone. Fads are fads. Now, as to whether this thing is a fad or whether it has enduring, unknown to all, of course. But my own hunch is, look, it's a bad chart here. and other things that offer better opportunities. Why fool with it here and now? Coming up, euphoria, building on Wall Street as a slate of private heavyweights. Gear up to go public. We'll dig into the head-turning valuations and why this could be the biggest test of investor demand yet. Fast Money is back right after this. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go.
33:29Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
33:38Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks higher across the board to close out a winning week. The Dow rising to fresh records, adding nearly 300 points. The S &P gaining almost half a percent and notching its eighth straight weekly gain, while the Nasdaq eked out a gain of two-tenths of a percent. Apple rising over a percent to fresh records. Stock closed out with a ninth straight week of gains, now on its best stretch, going back to 2017. China tech stocks coming under some pressure after Beijing announced a crackdown in illegal cross-border securities trading. The K-Web down almost 3 percent. PDD, Tal Education and JD.com among the biggest laggards.
34:11Tim Seymour:And Goldman Sachs shares hitting a milestone, topping the thousand dollar mark for the first time ever, though closing just shy of the level. The stock getting a boost amid investment banking enthusiasm after SpaceX selected the company to lead its IPO. Bono, when you flagged Goldman today, you like it here? I do. I still think it's best in class in terms of execution on trading and asset management fees. And listen, I think Ben Emmons makes a very compelling case for the banks. And I want to be in a bellwether that can produce beta to the upside. All right. Well, speaking of IPO euphoria, SpaceX, just one of the high profile names, getting ready to make its debut, wearable tech company Aura filed confidentially to go public yesterday.
34:55Tim Seymour:And OpenAI could be next on the list. Our next guest is an early investor in Aura, Alumni Ventures managing partner. Laura Rippey joins us now. Laura, it's great to see you. Good to see you again, Melissa. And you've also been an investor in recent IPOs. I'm wondering how you think about SpaceX and the impact on the IPO market, or is it such a unique issue that how it trades, how it's placed, that doesn't necessarily impact the likes of an Aura? Yeah. Well, I think any time a venture firm has four companies file to go public or go public in a three - or four-week period, we're excited about the unlock that it represents.
35:31Tim Seymour:And you mentioned Aura. We are very excited about that prospect, and I hope we get a chance to kind of come back to it. But your question was around SpaceX, of course. And, you know, our point of view is that it is very exciting because of the energy that it represents in the market for space, but then also afterwards for the startups that will likely follow, both the ones that have come right behind it and are going to be the new sort of up-and-coming space players, but also all of the new innovation that's going to happen as a result of the IPO, where there's employees who are fiery founders and with new capital and new excitement, they can come out with their own startups and that re-energizes the entire space opportunity.
36:16Hey, Laura, it's Tim. Thanks for joining us. And boy, huge, huge congrats because, yeah, this is an extraordinary time. And I guess in terms of the seat you sit in and both the competition for kind of the next wave of these, I'm just curious also just about what you're seeing in terms of the demand from your investors and really how rabid it feels out there, because independent of what we're talking about every night in the public markets, my sense is there's a whole new wave of investors, a lot of wealth that's been created in the market, and they want to be also on the leading edge of where they should be investing.
36:50I'm just kind of curious about on the fundraising side.
36:54Tim Seymour:I love that. That is a great question. So just as a level set, Alumni Ventures is a top 20 VC. We're the only one in the top 50 that caters to those individual retail investors. And we've raised about$1.6 billion from them. So this is dear, dear to our hearts. So I think what you have to understand is when you get in and the price you get in matters. And that is really relevant when a company comes up to that IPO. And I'll use Aura again as an example. So we got back into Aura in 2019. The valuation was literally less than$100 million. They're now valued at$11 billion. So simple math, that's 111 times our money, which is really promising, but only will come to fruition in this case when they go public.
37:41Tim Seymour:And candidately, it could be even more, right? All of the workings of Aura seem very, very promising. They have 4X their revenue in a couple of years. They have five and a half million rings out there in the market. Folks stay with Aura so they can understand their sleep. 80 % of the people stay after that year renewal rate. So they are doing exceptionally well. So the key thing of your question is, what's coming next and how can you be a part of that?
38:15Tim Seymour:And They come in as an individual accredited investor so that you can get the$100 million valuation, not the$11 billion valuation when you first come into a stock. On the other side of things, Laura, I mean, we're talking about fantastic exits, but when it comes to putting your money to work for the next sort of wave in your portfolio, is it a tough time now because valuations get lifted for all these hot areas? So, again, most of our entry points are C'd and A, Melissa. So we come in at that early days. We are looking around the corner at what the next trends are. What does it mean when we reshore so much manufacturing?
38:54Tim Seymour:What does that mean when 25 % of the population of manufacturing employees is retiring in the next couple of years? That means you have to bring AI to manufacturing. And the people who are going to bring AI to manufacturing are startups that have innovative solutions. We enter those at the early days. And yes, we need to be patient for when that fully comes to fruition in terms of their exit, either through M &A or IPO. But by investing early when innovation is happening, you get lower valuations. And there couldn't be a better example than in TechBio right now. That's a great opportunity at Series A.
39:29Tim Seymour:And we are taking a lot of advantage of the spectacular companies that are coming to market and coming in at relatively low valuations. It's a very exciting time. Laura, thank you. Great to see you. See you soon. Nice to see you, too. Take care. Laura Rippey of Alumni Ventures. A lot of exciting areas that she's investing in and has invested in, for sure. Yeah, and I think the investor community is also trying to look around the corner, and I think the venture community is only going to continue to grow. This is the structure of the markets that we're in. I can't tell you how many investors come to me and are looking for not only access to the IPOs that we were talking about and they're asking about them.
40:05They were asking about them two years ago. I mean, they know what's going on out there. So it's putting pressure on public markets.
40:11Tim Seymour:Coming up, Q1 earnings season largely in the rear view, but tech investors are gearing up for a couple of big reports still ahead. What to expect when Dell and Salesforce report next week. More Fast Money after this.
40:28Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. We've still got a couple of big tech names reporting earnings next week. Let's start with Dell, which spiked nearly 17 percent to a new record today. Several analysts raising their price targets ahead of Thursday's report. The company also benefiting from optimism over fellow PC maker Lenovo's results overnight. Salesforce, on the other hand, has struggled this year, down 32 percent as the software sector struggles. That company scheduled report on Wednesday. I don't know, Steve, where do you want to start here? Yeah, so so, well, if you look at where you said Lenovo gave a little bit of a hat tip to what Dell can expect.
41:02Dell's been growing revenues right upwards of 40 percent. If you look at it on a year to date performance, it's up over 130 percent. So things don't go grow to the sky and never come back down. Look at the point of entry. They had a conference a couple of weeks ago. The stock is up 30 percent since then. So I think the bar is pretty high for Dell. Even if they knock it knock it out of the park, knock the cover off the ball, you could see the stock sort of run flat to a touch higher. So I wouldn't be disappointed. You've had an incredible year. And CRM, really quickly, when you think about software or AI stealing from software, they're in the target zone.
41:46We haven't seen whether the CFO is going to say, let's buy this or we can replace this. They're not the infrastructure that a service now is or that a workday is for that matter.
41:59Tim Seymour:Yeah. Carter, what do you see in these charts? Well, they're equal and opposite of one on the right. Dell is up into the right and exhibiting incredible relative strength. The other is down 55 percent from its high. And it's the opposite. Momentum is a powerful thing. One has bullish momentum. One has bearish. I myself would not chase Dell, especially since the re-rating today ahead of earnings. So long only a trim and I wouldn't touch CRM. Yeah, I think with CRM right now, there's just not a pathway to visibility. I mean, ultimately, this is a case where you need to see some kind of organic acceleration in the second half.
42:33And this, look, they may be able to communicate enough on the kind of the post earnings call that will actually give the market some comfort. I don't think there's going to be anything in the numbers. Yeah, 23 times, you know, really cheap relative to itself for a reason.
42:47Tim Seymour:Coming up, a potentially record-breaking Memorial Day travel weekend lies ahead. But with gas prices rising, where are consumers cutting back and what it signals about the summer travel season? That's next. Back in two.
43:08Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. This weekend marks the unofficial start of summer, and millions are projected to travel in what could be a record-setting Memorial Day holiday. But with rising gas prices and persistent inflation, not everyone's travel plans are seeing the same impact. CNBC's Contessa Brewer has more on this. Contessa. Well, Melissa, look, you've got drivers filling up this Memorial Day weekend. And on average, they're shelling out$1.50 more than they were a year ago. At this quick check, it's right off the New York State Thruway a few months ago. It was two bucks cheaper a gallon. And still, it's not keeping people off the road for this long weekend.
43:44AAA says the vast majority of the 45 million Americans expected to travel are going to drive because, look, it's still cheaper than flying. And this will be another new travel weekend, barely. In fact, we haven't seen year-over-year growth this flat in a decade. That small bit of growth is really driven by Gen Z and millennials who are prioritizing experiences over stuff. Now, maybe they're camping, maybe they're sharing Airbnbs because the hotel bookings look softer for this weekend, too, according to travel intelligence company Sojourn. They say it's down 8 percent. And its data shows that travelers are not just downsizing international trips to regional trips.
44:28They're just sitting it out altogether. The Bank of America put out a summer travel note saying 40 percent of lower-income Americans have no travel plans, and their credit card data shows lower spending on travel so far this year. It's really the middle and the upper income spending more on travel. And in fact, MGM told me that Vegas, Melissa, is totally booked thanks to BTS. Nothing like a Korean superstar boy band to bring them in.
45:01Tim Seymour:Right, right, exactly. Yeah, no, Tim's a huge fan of BTS. I'm wondering, Contessa, though, when the decision is made to travel, if there are other ways where they cut back. And I don't know if you can speak to the, you know, in the casinos and sort of those resorts. if they get there, if there's less gambling or if there's less, you know, going on property and spending at restaurants, for instance. About those booking windows, it's so interesting because MGM's CFO said on its most recent earnings call that the booking windows are really short. So they're having a hard time looking out toward this summer and trying to decipher what the trends are going to be.
45:40I'm also hearing the same thing about World Cup travel, that a lot of the people, even if they've bought tickets, they have waited and waited to book their travel. And that's why we've been seeing this real low, far, far less than expected in terms of hotel bookings across the host cities, 16 host cities.
45:59Tim Seymour:That really speaks to the uncertainty out there in the economy. Contessa, thank you. Have a great weekend. Safe travels to you, Contessa Brewer. Up next, Final Trades.
46:11final trade time bono in better seller tlt steven jay frog on a dell collaboration carter alcoa large wall timbo have a rainy happy memorial day weekend
46:26Tim Seymour:ewz thank you to all who serve thanks for watching fast mad money starts right now all opinions expressed by the fast money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
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Markets higher today, and the Dow setting a fresh record, as Kevin Warsh is sworn in as the next Fed Chair. We dig into the moves, and how the central bank is positioning its policy under the new head. Plus we’re all waiting for OpenAI to file to go public. What one top VC sees in store from the slew of incoming IPOs.
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