What’s Next for the Consumer… And Metals and Materials Surge 8/5/26

20:41Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of SanDisk and Western Digital both dropping after the bell, even after the memory chip stocks beat revenue and earnings expectations for their latest quarters. Christina Parts Nevelis is covering both the stocks. That's some details from the call. And listening to both, reading and listening.

20:55Stephen Yalof:Let's start with Western Digital, the hard a drive maker. It topped earnings and revenue, but the guidance just came in good, not great. And the stock is sinking. Part of the unease came from the earnings call where Western Digital Management told investors it can keep growing supply without spending to build new capacity. They didn't actually give the CapEx numbers, but that's good for margins, yes, but it nudges that one fear hanging over memory, that if supply is this easy to add without spending more, today's shortage could one day flip into a glut. Then there's Sandus, the flash memory maker, which posted one of the biggest numbers of the season, revenue up 372 percent.

21:31Stephen Yalof:Stocks still falling. These are two of the hottest stocks of the year. Western Digital up more than 200 percent in 2026. Sandisk even more. What is it? Closer to 400 percent. Record results. But they have to clear a brutal bar. And these two are closely tied. There were once one company until last year when Sandisk spun off from Western Digital. And both now feed the same boom. The data center's bottomless need for storage. For Sandisk, that's a transformation. On the earnings call, too, the CEO said data centers are now its fastest growing market on track to double their share of the business in just one year from about 30 percent to nearly half.

22:07Stephen Yalof:The CEO put the shift this way just on the call now. Sandisk used to see only four months ahead on demand and now it has visibility several years out, even three. Demand is outrunning what Sandisk can make, though. That was in their earnings slide deck. And it expects to ration supply to customers beyond 2027. Something that we've also heard from all of the memory suppliers. This is a different type of memory, but it's a common theme. Christina, thank you. Christina Bartz-Nevelis. Tim, are we at the point where all the good news is factored in and the bar is just too high? Well, I think the question is, are you going to see those price to sales ratios ever again?

22:42And so those peak numbers and certainly the peak levels on the stock, I'm not sure. I think we've seen a nice rebound. We've seen a nice rebound in the COSP, which is a good barometer for what you should see here. You know, Sandus points out, hey, you know, we've got mid-80s gross margin. That's pretty good. We're pretty happy with that. They're even talking about a$14 billion addition in buybacks, which I realize doesn't look that significant anymore relative to the size of the market cap. I think the story is very good. I'm not chasing this one. Yeah, there's also a question. I spoke to Mehdi Hosseini of Susquehanna in the last hour, And he basically said, you know, we want to see also how they're going to preserve gross margin.

23:21Is it going to continue to be able to operate at 80 percent or so in that range as the move from training to inference happens? So there's some questions about the out years and some of the margins. Bono and. This company is essentially being priced as if there is no cyclicality in the business. And we have seen that historically. I think that's a concern. I think I'd be nitpicking. I mean, the quarters were tremendous. So there's really nothing to knock there. But the guides, I guess, were less than stellar. And I think at this valuation, that essentially is what the bar is. You have to have stellar results and you have to continue growing at a rate that supports the current price range.

24:01Sandisk was interesting in terms of it had its worst month in July on record for the stock. It was down today going into earnings and it's down on the release of the earnings report, Katie. You know, it's a correction, undoubtedly, but right now we actually have improved short-term momentum behind this complex. The way corrections tend to unfold, they have this ABC pattern where the A wave is the initial down wave. I think we've already seen that. This could actually still be the B wave. We've seen a bit of a bounce. This is, of course, a retracement for SanDisk and Western Digital. but we feel that it could be overdone in the short term because we have daily MACD buy signals across this space and oversold conditions.

24:42Stephen Yalof:The company guided down. I mean, that's it. So in what circumstances should the stock go up? And even after it's been cut in half and, you know, there isn't an analyst day next week. I think it's on the 13th. And, you know, that's something to keep an eye out. And especially if the stock were to kind of really fall off from here, get back towards those recent lows from last week, then the company's probably saved a little something to tell investors next week. So, again, it's probably a hard press, like you're saying, to the downside. Coming up, charting the course for markets, the key levels Katie Stockton is watching for the S &P 500, and whether to break out to 8 ,000 is in the cards.

25:13You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ MarketSite in Times Square. Back right after this.

25:32quarter on up to$1 ,500 in purchases. That's 5 % cash back at different places each quarter, like grocery stores, on gas, and at restaurants. It pays to discover. Terms apply. See discover.com slash five for details. Support for this podcast comes from Progressive, America's number one boat insurer. We've all made mistakes on the water, but there's one mistake you shouldn't make, being uninsured. With Progressive Boat Insurance, you can choose coverage for most mistakes you or other boaters could make, helping you float carefree all season long. Quote today, Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates.

26:09Number one rating based on 2024 filings with state departments of insurance. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short, and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Fast Money.

26:46Stocks finishing the day mixed, the Dow adding 250 points to close at records, the S &P ending just below the flatline after hitting intraday records, and the Nasdaq falling nearly 1%. SpaceX sinking almost 14 percent the day after its first report since going public. Elon Musk's rocket company reporting a six-fold increase in CapEx, most of which the company says is going towards AI compute. SpaceX's lockup period also ends tomorrow. And some more stocks on the move after results. Elf Beauty falling even as profits doubled thanks to a tariff refund windfall. Zillow shares down. The company's swing to a loss on restructuring costs.

27:20Figma dropping even after beating earnings expectations. and AppLovin sinking on a mixed quarter and Q3 guidance below estimates. Tim, what would you like to trade? I'll trade Zillow. I'm long Zillow. I think the company's actually pretty attractive here. I think on valuation, I realize there's economic ties and correlations here to what's been going on with the stock. But I think after a period of consolidation for a long time, the chart actually is kind of interesting even after this pullback. How does the chart look, Katie? I'm pulling it up now. I would love to talk about SpaceX, though, meanwhile.

27:57So we're about to get our first buy signal on the chart based on the DeMarc indicators in probably two days. It may or may not happen, but it's likely. And so I think that's interesting. And the response to earnings is obviously not good, but it's a minor retest of the lows. Zillow is one of these turnarounds, right? We are seeing actually a lot of these in the software sector. And you don't want your entire portfolio to be turnarounds, but there is upside potential when they gain momentum. like Zillow has. So I'm intrigued by the chart. I think, you know, coming off the lows in response to oversold conditions is promising.

28:30Stephen Yalof:Yeah. I think the SpaceX is really interesting because of the lockup and how poorly the stock traded. But if you are an early investor or you're a shareholder or employee, you might not sell here. So that might not have this sort of pressure. You consider the fact it was trading above 200. Now it's trading at 110. Coming up at Tail to Markets, the mixed messaging our next guest sees from stocks and bonds and whether the path of least resistance can lead equities higher from here. Fast Money's back right after this.

29:01Welcome back to Fast Money. The S &P today again hitting fresh intraday highs before settling slightly lower. Katie has been watching some key levels on the S &P. Katie, what are you seeing? Well, we do have a breakout, and today it was confirmed despite the weak action from the market. What we require for confirmation is two closes above resistance. The resistance was right around 7620, based simply on June's highs. And when you see breakouts, it relieves the chart of that resistance, and it tends to foster additional upside momentum. So it seems like, oh, well, you don't want to chase it. But oftentimes, rallies do continue when that breakout occurs.

29:40So it is a bullish short-term development. It's only a short-term development because the consolidation phase that preceded it was about two months in duration. So this is not a long-term level that we're talking about. But it does bode well for a better third quarter. There is some reason to be treading cautiously. We feel like the VIX was up when we had the S &P 500 going down. That's normal. But when we saw this breakout, the VIX was also up. And that does give us some pause in chasing things. So we want to make sure that we're seeing these breakouts confirmed and looking for positive catalysts.

30:18The price objective that we can get from this breakout, if we move on to the next chart, we can take the width of the consolidation phase and project it higher from the breakout point. And that does get us right to about 8000. And that would be an objective that would be relevant for the next few weeks. So, again, short to intermediate term, not long term. So we have to go below 76.20 or so and then go back to test the highs that we just hit? Well, as long as we've closed already above the resistance twice, so the breakout's already locked in and confirmed. Even if we see a pullback below the breakout point, the breakout's already been confirmed.

30:57So that is bullish for the next few weeks. OK. Katie, come on back. For more on where markets go next, let's bring in Michael Farr, chairman of Farr Crest Capital. and a CNBC contributor. Michael, pleasure to see you. Pleasure, Melissa. Thank you. So it is an interesting market that we live in, Michael, because stocks are revved up on earnings and the bond market is worried about inflation. So who wins? Earnings are winning right now and earnings are kind of winning biz big time, except, of course, for sort of like Western digital today. But I think Microsoft really turned markets around. Those earnings were real.

31:34The numbers are strong. This isn't like, you know, the dot-com phase, and I was there for those dot-coms, of course, where it was more optimism. These numbers are real. They're coming in. The earnings are there. The problem is the bond market isn't buying it, and yields have been going higher. Yields have gone higher all year. The Fed has said, you know, maybe the bond market is doing our work for us, and we can sit back and watch. I kind of have a different take on that because I think optimism is now confronting economic reality. And if I even go back further to 1987, the bond market started to fall in August.

32:11Stocks kept going up and they didn't crack until October. Bond market always wins. So I think the really important action that we need to see is from the Fed. I'm glad we've got the technicals in our favor. But I think if the Fed takes action here and steps in and actually raises rates, it will take over the responsibility from the market. It will show an assertive Fed, an assertive Kevin Warsh, and I think yields ultimately on the longer income down on that short-term hike. So it's an old argument, but right now it's tough to argue with these earnings. Hey, Michael, it's Tim. I agree with you.

32:49I actually think that if the Fed hikes in September, given kind of where we are in the economic environment, let's just say the status quo, that could relieve a lot of pressure, upward pressure, at least on the long end. What do you do once we have that out of the way? Let's assume that's what happens in September and we have the same economy that gave us strong ISMs this week and a solid payroll expected for tomorrow. What subsectors now make some sense? And there certainly have been a couple that would be more defensive and might be just that then. It's a great question. I think it'll be great for the markets if the Fed actually does step in and lets us feel like they've got their hand on the tiller again, if you will.

33:29And then when you listen to the technicals that we heard, they continue to be strong. Earnings continue to be strong. I think within tech, you still have to own it, but you really can't chase it. And you have to buy those companies with really strong balance sheets that are not all that rate dependent, right? They don't have to refinance a whole lot of debt coming up. So because that's going to be a higher hurdle for a lot of companies, that cost of debt and cost of refinancing. I continue to like health care. I love Eli Lilly's report this morning. It's a big position of mine already. I'm not selling it.

34:05I'm holding it. I think you probably buy it on a pullback and not to get too technical, but the 100 day moving at 200 day moving average is about a hundred dollars lower than we are today. I think patients will be rewarded there. Other places in health care. I know I mentioned it before. I continue to like Pfizer with that 7 percent dividend. Their earnings numbers were good. The balance sheet's good. Nothing exciting is going to happen with Pfizer, but it's a good place, I think, to park money. And I think the long term story works. uh michael i'm i'm assuming just a quick question on elizabeth lily i'm assuming you you maybe once took a look at novo i mean given they're in the same what is what's wrong with novo in your view i don't get it melissa i've been arguing my son is is my business partner in farcrest i've been arguing with him all the way along i said this stock is too cheap they have a glp1 and he comes back and says two things he says dad clearly they don't have the right glp1 they don't have the right delivery.

35:03Their numbers are going down on the Ozempic. Their balance sheet is great. I think the stock is cheap. And the second thing that he says to me is you have enough exposure to GLP-1s in this industry with this position in Eli Lilly that you have. Don't screw it up, stick with Lilly. He's probably right, by the way. My son Robert's probably right. Don't screw it up, stick with Lilly. But boy, when I see a stock that gets as cheap as Novo's gotten, I mean, I'm licking my lips. I buy them when they're cheap. All right. Well, we'll check in with you and maybe Robert as well next time. Michael, good to see you.

35:41Thanks, guys. Coming up, Disney gets some magic back while shares are jumping on the back of a mixed quarter and what could signal for key media reports still on deck when Fast Money returns.

36:00Welcome back to Fast Money. Disney shares jumping almost 4 % today after the company topped earnings estimates in its latest quarter. The company is seeing strength in both its parks and streaming businesses. But our next guest sees an issue under the hood. Tom Rogers is CNBC's founder and a current contributor. Tom is also senior advisor to our parent company, Versant Media, and the former NBC cable president. Tom, always great to be back. So what is the issue at Disney here in your view? Well, I don't want to take anything away from the first two things that they had. The first thing they had to prove, which was Disney Parks was not affected by anything going on with Universal and the consumer and gas prices.

36:39They passed with flying colors, parks as steady as could be. On the second issue they had to prove, which was what is the new CEO's strategy when it comes to streaming growth? And that's where high growth is going to come from. That's where they're going to have the impact on improving their multiple if it's going to happen. And interestingly, on the surface, they had a really good quarter on the entertainment streaming side. Revenue was up 11 percent. Margin was up 13 percent. Slow, steady, clear growth there. But they don't give much information anymore on subs. They don't give much information anymore on engagement.

37:20The one thing they give information on was advertising and advertising on the entertainment streaming side was up two and a half percent. Netflix, remember, made a huge deal that their advertising was going to double over the course of the year up 100 percent. They're not in the same universe when it comes to that. Now, Disney's no slouch when it comes to advertising, even in streaming. They've led other than YouTube in terms of absolute advertising dollars. They have sports rights to leverage. They have the linear business, which is still getting rates at 60 percent CPMs higher than streaming CPMs to leverage.

38:01And 70 percent of their new subs presumably are taking the ad supported service and they're doing two and a half percent ad growth. That tells me something is really off in engagement or sub growth or both. And that's going to have to be fixed. The fact that they didn't really address it at all tells me that the growth strategy of putting more TikTok verticals in there and talking about maybe a fast channel, that's interesting. But it's not going to solve a core issue that must be underlying that. Do you think using Disney Plus as sort of a portal to the Disney experience, enabling purchasing and things like that could offset that pressure that they have to fix or improve advertising?

38:49I do. But even by their own words, Disney Plus is at the heart of that and content strength has to be at the heart of that. And if you look at their content budget of 24 billion or so, half of that is sports. Now, they said they were going to pour money into tripling the number of shows in international programming. Well, then how where's the money going to come from for more entertainment program? They're already spending three billion for every one percentage point of television time that they get. The average for the industry is spending two billion for every one percent they get. And the top 25 shows, Paramount had 40 percent of them.

39:36Netflix had 28 percent of them. Disney only had 16 percent of the top 25 shows this last TV season. So they got to spend more on Disney plus entertainment, entertainment more broadly, pressured by sports, pressured by international programming. Their current spend is way above industry trends in terms of what they're getting for it. They have some real pressure there.

39:58Stephen Yalof:Tom, you're at the forefront. A lot of media as you go back, you know, to when you conceived of CNBC, I want to say decades ago. I'm not going to age anybody here. It was decades ago. Tell us what's going on. You have this really cool AI movie coming out. We're really excited about it. We've seen the trailers. Like, what does that mean for the landscape? You just said Disney needs more quality programming. From your experience making AI movies, putting them out into the world, is that an answer for some of these companies that need content? Well, they talked about AI, and I don't believe any of the traditional media companies really are focusing on how quickly really high quality AI productions can come into the fore doing full feature movies as we are.

40:42And yes, if your content budget is strained because you've got sports rights and other things, it is a great answer. But the answer comes with downside for the big media companies, because if you're Disney or your Netflix, what's your leverage? Your leverage is that you are the companies that can spend the big budget money on big TV series and big movies. If that leverage goes away from the process and anybody can, not anybody, but quality AI producers such as ourselves at Fountain Zero can produce and enter, that takes away their standing and their leverage in the content production world in a huge way.

41:22So it's a double-edged sword there, but I don't think the industry is focused enough on just how quickly an AI, high-quality opportunity is going to present itself that is really difficult for them to contend with. We are showing the trailers of the movie, and you told us during the break, you show this movie around, and even professional critics, people who are in the industry, they could not tell the difference. I showed it to somebody who is CEO of a very well-known franchise that has been involved with more independent movies than anybody else, talking about Dreams of Violets, our first movie, not Odysseus, The Fall, which is about to be released at the end of the month, and did not tell him it was AI generated, had no clue.

42:12And so that just tells you what level we are going to be able to produce at. Whether others are able to do that, we'll see. But it's certainly coming at the industry fast and furiously. Neither of those trailers, I don't think you could tell, is AI. Amazing. Tom, thank you. It's always great to get your insights into everything. Thanks for having me. Tom Rogers. Tim, I mean, it sounds like AI could be not a solution, but could help the industry in terms of getting more for their content spent, or it could just be huge competition? Well, AI's certainly never going to be the end of fast money. I can tell you that.

42:50I won't let it happen. I know you won't. But I think it's always fascinating to listen to Tom. I think Disney needs a catalyst. And as he pointed out, Disney's Hefton studio and where they sit in the industry, they're probably hoping that they continue to dominate and that the barriers to entry don't come down. I think the sum of the parts on Disney is finally really attractive. It's amazing to think about a time when people thought they were going to give ESPN away. I think it's an incredibly undervalued asset. Whether the ad growth and what's really being delivered there is disappointing, OK.

43:25But I think this is a case at 13, 14 times forward. It's finally grown back into a valuation after COVID. And it took some time. This is pretty attractive here. I don't see the catalyst, however. All right. Coming up, Uber shares hitting the brakes after earnings this morning. We'll drive into the numbers on that and other big movers during the session. More Fast Money in two.

43:51Welcome back to Fast Money. A couple earnings moves catching our eye today. Let's start off with Uber. Shares driving more than 5 % lower after the company gave weak bookings guidance for the current quarter. Earnings forecasts also missed estimates. Shares are down more than 16 % this year. Tim, what do you make of Uber? Well, I think they're also dragged down by CapEx on RoboTaxi. And it seems to be the trend where we're not really excited to hear about that kind of CapEx on a relative basis for Uber. It's a big number. But again, the guide on bookings isn't great. I think the company is very interesting on valuation.

44:28I think there are some questions about their core business model and where they sit in the middle of Robo. non-spectacular, probably overdone to the downside today. I mean, basically, it's going from asset light to asset heavier. What's your take on the chart, Katie? You know, we need it to hold up around current levels in order to preserve support. It's obviously a downtrend, but it is long-term oversold. So if it can hold in here and see momentum improve, that would be positive. And finally, FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment plummeting more than 11 percent after the company missed earnings estimates and cut EBITDA guidance for the year by more than 20 percent.

45:04The sports betting company also announcing CEO Peter Jackson will step down on October 1st. Bonwin, what do you make of flutter? Well, this is really disappointing. I mean, this stock has continued in a downtrend and you're kind of looking for a point where they might turn that around. Clearly, earnings disappointed. And I think in the context of, you know, the World Cup boom that we just got, that's got to really sting. I would say the one positive is that the international CEO is stepping in and that is their most profitable unit vis-a-vis United States. So that might be a spark there. Yeah.

45:35How does the chart look? You know, there is long-term support going all the way back to 22. So this is an opportunity perhaps for it to hold up. All right. Up next, final trades.

46:00Final trade time. Let's go around the horn. Bono and Isis. If you're looking for a boring low beta compounder, I'd look at waste management. Dimbo. We talked gold. We talked copper. How about iron ore? How about aluminum? Rio Tinto integrated miners is the way to go. Katie Stockton, a fair lead. I'll stay on that theme. We'll go with the copper miners ETF COPX. It has a triangle formation. Thank you for joining us tonight, Katie. Appreciate it. Dan.

46:28Stephen Yalof:Yeah, Katie used that term, coiled spring, as it related to gold. And SpaceX could be setting up like that. You have that big lockup coming out. Maybe you don't see the sort of selling pressure. But if you see a huge volume load, you probably see a really sharp rally towards the end of this week. Thank you for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

46:58or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. Snoring, gasping for air during sleep, daytime sleepiness. I'm Shaquille O 'Neal, and this shouldn't be anybody's experience.

47:28Ask your doctor about ZepBound Trisepatide, the first and only FDA-approved prescription medicine for moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea in adults with obesity. ZepBound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea, OSA, and obesity to improve their OSA. ZepBound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. ZepBound contains trisepatide and should not be used with other trisepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children.

48:04Don't share needles or pens or reuse needles. Don't take if allergic to it, or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer, or if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. Tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. Stop ZepBound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction. Severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems. Tell your doctor if you experience vision changes before scheduled procedures with anesthesia. If you're nursing, pregnant, plan to be, or taking birth control pills, taking ZepBound with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar.

48:38Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. Talk to your doctor. Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit ZepBound.lily.com.