In short
Fast Money episode focuses on three market themes: (1) White House pressure on data-center electricity costs, (2) early earnings and a software selloff tied to AI disruption fears, and (3) biotech pipeline planning amid a patent cliff.
Guests
Lawrence Golub, CEO of Golub Capital (middle-market private credit; doesn’t fund hyperscaler chip/data-center bets; emphasizes floating-rate debt, SOFR, and productivity-driven unit labor cost gains). Bill Murie, CEO of Incyte (targets replacing Jackify’s ~2025 $3B revenue after 2028 loss of exclusivity; highlights 7 prioritized programs and 14 phase 3 trials; says 2–3 winners plus M&A firepower). No other external guests.
Key claims/examples
Microsoft pledges not to seek subsidies and to ensure communities aren’t “left holding the tab,” with utilities/data-center electricity prices rising (e.g., Virginia +14% YoY; Illinois +16%). Traders favor utilities/nat gas/nuclear alternatives (Vistra, Bloom Energy, Constellation, LNG). Software names (Salesforce, DocuSign, Adobe, Snowflake) drop on AI replacement concerns; Adobe viewed as potentially undervalued near 2022 lows. Netflix/WBD deal discussion and Insight’s Jackify cliff are also covered.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOWhite House Affordability Push
0:00 to 0:22
Discussion on the White House's focus on electricity costs and data centers.
“Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand.”
White House Affordability Push
1:47 to 3:32
Discussion on the White House's focus on electricity costs and data centers.
“Microsoft among the laggards today after pledging to pay higher utility bills that come from powering its AI models.”
Market Implications of Energy Costs
3:45 to 4:50
Analysis of how rising electricity costs affect tech stocks and utilities.
“The reality, though, is that it takes a long time to bring the power online.”
The Impact of Data Centers on Consumers
4:51 to 6:20
Exploring how data centers influence electricity prices and consumer expenses.
“up 16 percent year-on-year as of the fourth quarter of last year.”
AI Industry Challenges
6:21 to 8:06
Discussion about the AI industry's profitability and competition with China.
“The other thing is Brad Smith also had an interview today with the FT, and he was saying that the Chinese have a lead here.”
Stock Market Dynamics
8:07 to 9:51
Analyzing the performance of the Nasdaq 100 and implications for investors.
“So financing will be a little more expensive.”
Middle Market Insights
9:52 to 14:00
Insights from Golub Capital on middle market trends and economic outlook.
“where compute power needs are going to be.”
Analyzing Middle Market Hiring and AI Impact
14:00 to 18:08
Learn about the current state of job creation in the U.S. and how AI is influencing productivity and hiring practices in the middle market.
“Lawrence, in the middle market, obviously this is a big hiring component, right, here in the U.S.”
Deregulation in Lending and the Role of Big Banks
18:08 to 22:26
Explore the effects of deregulation on private credit and how large banks are navigating the evolving lending landscape.
“I mean, a lot of interesting comments on the middle market.”
Concerns Over Fed Independence
22:26 to 22:49
Discuss the implications of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's independence and the potential risks posed by political influences.
“Coming up, we'll have much more in the J.P.”
Show all 22 chapters
Software Sector Decline and Market Conditions
24:01 to 28:30
Examine the recent downturn in the software sector and the implications of AI disruptions on major companies.
“The software trade getting hammered today.”
Netflix's Bid for Warner Brothers
29:16 to 30:28
Discussion of Netflix's potential all-cash bid for Warner Brothers Discovery assets.
“Netflix is reportedly working on revised terms for its Warner Brothers Discovery bid, and it has discussed making its offer all cash, this according to a report in Bloomberg.”
Shares and Market Response
30:28 to 31:35
Analysis of Netflix's share performance in relation to its acquisition bid.
“Yeah, I've got a question for you, Julie.”
Insights on the Biotech Sector
31:35 to 32:54
Preview of insights from a biotech CEO at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference.
“I mean, the appeal of the speed of the transaction, I get, but...”
Interview with Insight CEO
32:54 to 38:04
Insight CEO discusses their growth strategy amid a looming patent cliff.
“Stocks pulling back from records as earnings season kicked off.”
Market Trends and Challenges
38:04 to 39:09
Discussion on current market trends and challenges in the biotech sector.
“Bill Murie, the CEO of Insight, again, up 45 % or so in the past year.”
Trader Acronym Picks
39:09 to 39:46
Traders reveal their picks for the 2026 acronym unveiling segment.
“Morgan Healthcare Conference on Mad Money.”
Discussion on Trader Strategies
39:46 to 42:00
Hosts discuss their trading strategies and choices for various stocks.
“But before we begin, we thought we would revisit the rules.”
Discussion on Stock Performance and Predictions
42:00 to 44:33
The hosts analyze various stocks, discussing performance and future prospects.
“I am sorry to hear what Tim's acronym is.”
Telecom Stocks Under Scrutiny
44:33 to 46:32
The discussion shifts to the performance of telecom stocks and their market positions.
“Telecom stocks in the red today and hitting some multi-year lows.”
Final Trades and Closing Thoughts
46:32 to 47:11
The hosts share their final trade recommendations and conclude the show.
“I should ask some guy, what's the M in Timbo?”
Final Trades and Closing Thoughts
47:46 to 47:59
The hosts share their final trade recommendations and conclude the show.
“I'm honored to make history and to make my community proud.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:02Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand. It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features. So you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead, and ready before problems ever start. Mazda. More of what matters most to you. Go to mazdausa.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product. At Edward Jones, we believe rich isn't about having life all figured out. It's opening yourself to all the possibilities. That's why your dedicated financial advisor provides long-term planning built around you, meeting you where you are, and helping you get closer to where you want to be.
0:47So no matter where you're starting from, you can move forward with confidence. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich. Edward Jones, member SIPC.
1:02Tim Seymour:live in the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square this is fast money here's what's on tap tonight powering up utility stocks on the move as the administration takes aim at rising electricity costs what the latest focus on affordability means for these names and the broader markets and jp morgan kicking off bank earning season with a big move lower is the pullback justified or is this a time to buy in we'll debate that plus software stock slump on A new AI concerns. Insight's CEO joins us to break down the pipeline at the biotech firm. And more trader acronyms. Will Tim and Karen follow the rules to score a win this year?
1:36Tim Seymour:They'll reveal their pick for yourself later on this hour. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. We start off with the big data center builders pulling back amid the latest demands from the White House. Microsoft among the laggards today after pledging to pay higher utility bills that come from powering its AI models. Meta and Oracle also dropping. President Trump last night posting on Truth Social that he, quote, never wants Americans to pay higher electricity bills because of data centers. It's the latest line of the administration's focus on affordability.
2:11Tim Seymour:Let's get to Eamon Jabbers for more on the White House's demands. Eamon.
2:14Melissa Lee:Yeah, Melissa, interesting to see the one-two punch there. The president's social media post last night, And then Microsoft this morning announcing their five principles around data centers. And the idea here is, from Microsoft's perspective, not to jack up the cost of water and power and other things in these areas where they do business. So they're pledging on five specific points. I asked Brad Smith, the Microsoft president, exactly what the conversations with the White House have been between Microsoft and the White House. Here's what he said. I think they are also quite properly pushing the tech sector, including us, to do right by local communities to ensure that we pay for our electricity costs and don't leave consumers picking up the tab.
3:01And that's one significant part of what we're doing today, providing that kind of reassurance to the public where we are operating these.
3:10Melissa Lee:So Microsoft also saying they're not going to ask for subsidies in some of the areas where they're doing business. All this, Melissa, seems to me to be sort of a reflection of political reality here, which is that if the AI data center build out is going to continue, the AI industry has to make sure it doesn't make political enemies everywhere it's doing business. And so they have to come up with a way for this to be a big win-win. They understand, says Microsoft, the reality that these tech companies are so profitable, they can't be seen as pushing these costs off onto individual communities.
3:41Tim Seymour:All right. Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javros from Washington for us. The reality, though, is that it takes a long time to bring the power online. So what are the solutions at this point? And are there trades based on this? Or is the timeline too long at this point?
3:56Melissa Lee:There are no solutions in the near term. I mean, the fact that Microsoft—listen, this is actually one that I agree with. I mean, the community shouldn't be saddled with the burden of all these costs. So, you know, good for the administration for finally addressing it. But it's been known for a long time. If you live in northern Virginia, you absolutely know what's going on. With that said, it's a long fix, and Microsoft seems to be on board. What does it mean for the stocks? Well, it doesn't mean anything in terms of negative to downside. I think Vistra wins to this. I think names like Bloom Energy, which is ridiculous valuation, continue to win to this.
4:26Melissa Lee:And I'll say this. Microsoft, I think, into earnings on the 28th, this is as good a setup as you've seen in a long time. Minnstock has been awful now for the last six or seven months. This level is the prior all-time high from the summer of 2024. I think you want to get long Microsoft into their release.
4:43Tim Seymour:Virginia, the state with the most data centers in the United States, has seen electricity prices go up 14 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter. Illinois, the second most data centers in the United States, up 16 percent year-on-year as of the fourth quarter of last year. So consumers are already feeling the pinch. Open up your bill, and you know what I'm talking about. I think they're feeling it everywhere. The places you're highlighting may be data center concentrated, but who's not getting that notification from your utility company telling you when you should actually optimally use your appliances and whatnot, Guy?
5:14Melissa Lee:Well, Tim, you have a smart refrigerator. You mentioned that. I don't even know what that means. What else would I have? So I do think back to the trades that when you see a headline like this, I go back to NatGas and I go back to nuclear. I know the lead time on nuclear is a lot longer, although there's no question this administration has already talked about fast tracking. But I think about a Chenier Energy. I think about LNG. I think NatGas is absolutely, especially those utilities that have targeted NatGas. And I would go to Constellation Energy with their Calpine acquisition. I mean, these are places where I actually think people are underestimating where NatGas is a solution of at least alternative, cheaper, cleaner power.
5:51I do think that the utilities overall and XLU look very interesting here. We've had a nice pullback in the XLU. And over time, even independent of this AI trade, this is, I think, an interesting opportunity.
6:03Melissa Lee:Yeah, you know, on the trading front, I mean, this can't be good for the neoclouds, right? So if the idea is that these, you know, big cloud operators are going to use their profits, right, to kind of reduce the cost for everyday citizens on the energy front, I just think those companies, the neoclouds, are very unprofitable. And we know that, right? So they've got to hit the debt markets. The other thing is Brad Smith also had an interview today with the FT, and he was saying that the Chinese have a lead here. And if you think about the Chinese and the lead that they have, with the models in particular outside of obviously the U.S.
6:37Melissa Lee:And they're taking over in Africa and some of these other places. It's a digital belt and road. And if you think about it, the Chinese have the cheapest cost of capital and they have the cheapest cost of energy, right? And those two things are really, I mean, this is why Microsoft is warning against this. And I do think it's interesting that, yes, the regulation has been very favorable to these companies. But if you get caught in this kind of populist sort of situation where it's going to be very hard for a lot of these companies that are happy about the deregulation but are building out these data centers with closed models versus the Chinese, again, with open source models.
7:15Melissa Lee:So this is where this, I think it's a battle. This is where this battle is going. We're going to hear a lot more about it in the next couple of years.
7:21Tim Seymour:Yeah, I mean, the cost of compute is much lower as we learned from DeepSeq in terms of the efficiency. But maybe that also plays into Nvidia, whose latest chip is a lot more efficient in many ways. Right. So, I mean, you could look at it. Were you going to get a lot more bang for your buck, right, in terms of huge power? Or was it just cheaper? But, I mean, I do think this, I agree with all of you. I think that this is a smart thing. It does play well. And it does seem fair, actually, right? So, and Microsoft is saying all the right things, including, well, look at China. and I don't know if that's a plea to the U.S.
7:54You've got to help. You've got to even the playing field. I think it's going to be difficult to even the playing field because of this populist message. It does seem fair to me. So what are the implications of, on the margin now, data centers are more expensive, right? So financing will be a little more expensive. Does that mean that demand becomes, is there an inelasticity there? I think at the moment there is a demand will go up regardless of price. right now. So, and also, as you all said, it takes a while for this to play out. So I don't know that we can calibrate it so easily, but it's definitely not a positive.
8:30And I don't know who's going to get the cost. I mean, AWS, who are they going to pass the cost on to? Their customers? Do they eat some of it? I don't know.
8:37Melissa Lee:Well, it comes at a time where a lot of these companies are having a hard time monetizing, right? So if you think about OpenAI, the longer they stay unprofitable, this gets harder for them if the cost of compute goes higher. Now, Microsoft, obviously, and AWS, They're in Google Cloud. They're in different positions here. But, you know, the other thing that you just mentioned in video, you know, the information article this morning and we know we've been going back and forth between these export, you know, like charges, whatever you want to call it, taxes that the Trump administration is putting on video.
9:05Melissa Lee:Right. To sell these chips to China. The information article today, China restricts video chip purchases to special circumstances. And to your point, they are making do with less. And when these models are spreading the way they are, this turns into a very difficult situation for, I think, our model makers.
9:22Tim Seymour:Are we to think, though, for a name like a meta, which also traded lower today, that because they have different purchase power agreements with various utilities, they have, you know, SMRs, small modular reactors, you know, on the build to come. But they're off the hook from this, that they've already satisfied the demands. Are we in some way talking about the same thing? I'm not sure. I mean, again, I think there's a scramble that we're seeing in the headline and the attempts and what they've locked in versus where we don't even know where the demand is going to be. We don't know where is currency and where some of the efficiencies, as you indicated, where compute power needs are going to be.
9:56I would just bring it back to the stock and I would bring it back to the Nasdaq 100 versus kind of if your barbell trade is you want some growth and you want some value. You know, you've got semis that are outperforming the entire market this year. And then you've got small cap and you've got equal weighted also outperforming. The Nasdaq 100 hit a peak in October, late October, and has not made new highs while the S &P continues to. I think the market is telling you exactly where you want to be positioned. And I think that will continue to be the case, which is that those that are benefiting from AI, that EPS expansion is part of what the market is rewarding right now, not the companies that were yesterday's trade.
10:35Melissa Lee:Karen looks remarkably radiant this evening, more so than usual, which is a high bar. I'm not quite sure. Because it's our acronym night. It's our acronym night. But I think there's something else that's about to happen that I think is going to captivate our audience. Well done.
10:47Tim Seymour:Maybe, maybe not.
10:48Melissa Lee:Well done.
10:50Tim Seymour:All right. Well, Golub Capital is out with its quarterly middle market report. It finds a steady growth trend with middle market private company earnings up 3 % year-over-year in Q4. Revenue increased by 2%. Golub Capital CEO Lawrence Golub, a.k.a. Mr. Karen Feinerman, is here to give us an early look at the report, which will be released in full later this hour. Lawrence, it is always nice to see you. Welcome. Nice to see you, Melissa. Thanks for having me back. I think everybody is extra radiant tonight. That's a good one to clap. We'll clap for it. The last time I clapped for it, not now. I said we can't not now.
11:24Tim Seymour:So the middle market looks great. Is that in contrast with what you're seeing in the other parts of the economy? I wouldn't say it's in contrast, but let's roll the clock back a year. A year ago, there was a consensus the economy slowing down, high chance of a recession, problems in all different directions. And the consensus was wrong. And we've seen quarter after quarter in the middle market real economy, not the hyperscaler AI topics that you all were talking about. Nice, steady progress, growth, profits. Q4 for the consumer. U.S. consumer is about 69, 70 percent of the U.S. economy. Strongest quarter of the year.
12:00And I think this is consistent. I don't think the message is this is instead of what's going on in the rest of the economy. I think the message is, hey, the real economy, sometimes with a little bit of the benefit from AI, but the real economy separate from all the news about AI is actually doing pretty well.
12:16Tim Seymour:We talk about AI constantly, especially AI in the credit markets. Are you lending in that area at all? What kind of exposure, if any, does Gallup Capital have to AI? We do not do any hyperscaler chip kind of money. Is there a reason behind that? Yes. You tell me what data centers are going to be doing four years from now. You tell me what kind of chip, whose chip is going to be used. You tell me what the price of an NVIDIA chip is. You let me lock that in for four years from now. Then I'll think about lending there. Now, we have many other players in private credit are making a lot of loans. And I'm not saying the loans will turn bad.
12:53But ultimately, compute is a commodity. It's a commodity with constantly changing technology. I think that if you get the equity play right, if you're the right owner of the right piece of it, you can make a fortune. As a lender, you're just waiting to get your head chopped off. It's like the railroads in the 19th century.
13:11Melissa Lee:Lawrence, the other thing we talk about all the time is the bond market and the Federal Reserve. I mean, I know it's important to you, but do you think we talk about it too much? At what point does it start to get on your radar screen? Well, we're focused on floating rate debt, floating rate loans. So we care a lot about the interplay of short-term interest rates and inflation. The Federal Reserve issues, issues as it relates to independence are much more about what does that do to inflation a year from now, two years from now, three years from now. We've got SOFR at about three and a half percent, 3.6 percent.
13:45The forward curve show it coming down 50 or 75 basis points over the next 18 months. And it may. The question is, what does that do to the 10 year? Because the 10 year drives capital spending. The 10 year drives mortgage rates. I think that we're in a period now where we're talking a lot about the Federal Reserve, about executive action, but really what's going on is this is about politics and this is about the November election and this is about different parties maneuvering to try to turn out their base.
14:16Melissa Lee:Lawrence, in the middle market, obviously this is a big hiring component, right, here in the U.S. And if you think about it, if you keep reading about this as a no-fire, no-hire sort of situation, what are you guys seeing with the companies that you're close to about just this and productivity and maybe how they're using AI yet? Because there's a lot of really conflicting sort of stories about that. So job creation in the U.S. economy has slowed down. That's been a plus for inflation. It's taken some of the pressure off. Wage growth is still pretty good. Same job wage growth is running about 4%, which is higher than inflation.
14:53And that's because of productivity. We had a Q3 print on unit labor costs down about 1.9%, best in years and years and years. That comes from more careful hiring. It comes from use of AI. It comes from not just AI, but software in general, you know, efficiency producing. It's really important to the health of the middle market economy. I would think about it in the way our borrowers and the private equity firms think about it. They don't think about hiring first. They think about how do we improve productivity? How do we improve capacity? How do we grow our revenue? and then hire for what they need.
15:30In a period of time where hiring's lower, it's easier to grow productivity. But unemployment's also 4.4%. That's not bad. Lawrence, let's talk a little bit about the business that you're in, which is middle market lending, but the private credit world that's exploded. And you've been there. You've been in the space for a long time. We're in an environment where banks seemingly have a tailwind from deregulation. What does this mean both for the particular corner of the lending world you're in, the customers that are, you know, or at least the investor base that is now broadening for you? And it seems like it's a wildly exciting time.
16:08Are you just as much of a beneficiary from DREG as Citibank is? Yes. And I think that the deregulation where it benefits us and it benefits the banks is as it relates to capital charges for banks actually being lenders to firms like ours. We are not going to see Citibank or what's that other big one? Yeah. We're not going to see them as actual lenders be giant players. There'll be players in their lending activities, whether it's buying AAA securities and CLOs or doing bank lines. And the deregulation is helping that quite a lot and making that market grow both here and abroad. And the big banks, through their wealth management arms, also do a lot of capital raising for the equity piece.
17:01Really, there have been significant inflows into private credit, and it's a market with supply and demand like anything else. the bank piece of it is very healthy. So J.P. Morgan on their call today, that other big bank, said they're going to be active in the space as lenders as well. Do you see them as frenemies? Frenemies is a good word, but they're being a little loose with their language. So J.P. Morgan has been very aggressive in raising money through the private wealth channel to do lending and to invest in lenders. They have not been especially aggressive in actually putting loans on their regulated bank balance sheet.
17:40Now, from a shareholder's point of view, maybe that's all the same thing. From our point of view, it's not. They're trying to be a little bit of a competitor with us, but really in the very largest deals, the deals that compete with the broadly syndicated loan market. And, you know, they're important business partners. They raise money for us. They lend money to us. They had a bad quarter. Wham, wham.
Read the full transcript
18:03Tim Seymour:It was a good quarter. We'll discuss that later on. Lawrence, great to see you. Thank you so much. Thanks, Melissa. Thanks. We love Lawrence. Of course. What's not to love? Yeah. Well. More on that later. I mean, a lot of interesting comments on the middle market. I love the comments on what he's seeing through and the unique position Gallup Capital is in to actually see 120 private middle market companies in their index. And the correlations, he's saying, the predictive quality of what's going on in the strength of those business to the S &P. We had a parade of analysts coming on the last year, month of the year, talking to us about EPS growth rates that were as high as I've heard in a long time.
18:46And what Lawrence said largely was consistent with that, that there's a lot of health there. And we're going to see some of this in the S &P.
18:53Tim Seymour:Meantime, President Trump just making some comments about Fed Chair Powell and more. Let's listen to what he had to say. He's done a bad job. We should have lower rates. Jamie Dimon probably wants higher rates. Maybe he makes more money that way. On Tantuary City, sir. He also was talking about the 10 percent credit card. The House Speaker said that it could have negative side effects if it was imposed to Congress. Are you concerned about that? No, I'm not. I think that people that are paying 28 percent interest should be protected. We're talking about for a one year period. But when you have a bank, whether it's Jamie Dimon or anybody else, charging people 28, 32 percent, 30 percent, 31 percent, one case, 35 percent.
19:39No, I'll help those people. That's all right.
19:42Tim Seymour:So there are two pieces of that. One, what Jamie Dimon, the CEO of J.P. Morgan, had to say about Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the threat to the independence of the Fed, which he then said, Jamie Dimon said, would stoke inflation, would be inflationary, basically. And then there's the credit card piece of this.
19:59Melissa Lee:Let's take the Fed piece first and let us attack, because we talked about credit cards last night. I mean, the Fed piece is extraordinarily important. You know, once again, I think Jamie Dimon is right. Obviously, it does not make the president happy, but it doesn't mean it's without merit. The independence of the Fed is why this system works. If you lose it or if it's somehow vulnerable to the, you know, the attacks from outside, then our bond market's in jeopardy, which puts the entire stock market at jeopardy as well. Well, it's also a strategic conversation within Congress. And, you know, pushing out on this and really fighting in this direction against the Fed is something that is going to at least the rhetoric referred and the headlines from key members of the Republican Party that are legislators and can sway.
20:45I mean, it just feels like this is a an area to be pushing that's running into more unanticipated opposition. And we've even heard. I mean, you know, the idea is that Scott Bessens behind the scenes has made some things. I don't want to put words in his mouth. I realize this is a very unified administration and team. But there's no question that there's been outspoken reaction to this Fed probe.
21:08Melissa Lee:When you talk about the disruption in the bond market, I mean, all you have to do is go back to September 24, right? You saw yields come down significantly into that first 50 basis point cut in September. Then there were 225. So we had 100 basis points of cuts in that last quarter, essentially, of 24. What did we see? We saw the 30-year yield go from 4 % to 5%. So we cut Fed funds, or they cut Fed funds, 100 basis points. But then over the next few months, we saw the 30-year. Wouldn't you think the 10-year yield and the 30-year yield are really more important if you're talking about credit card rates, if you're talking about just debt in general, and then obviously mortgages?
21:46Melissa Lee:So the idea that you're going to hire somebody or put somebody in place at the Federal Reserve that's going to do your bidding and dramatically lower interest rates, I think this is exactly what you guys are saying. I don't think there's any debate about the value of an independent Fed. I mean, we can talk about what's going on here. But if there's anybody out there that thinks having the Fed not be independent and be totally aligned with the White House in any administration, if they think that's good, I'm having trouble finding that person. So I don't think this is a question about, you know, Fed independence being being a critical piece of how our economy and how our reserve currency works right now.
22:25Tim Seymour:Yeah. Coming up, we'll have much more in the J.P. Morgan quarter as well as a sellout that we saw across the board in software stocks. Fast one is back in two.
22:37Introducing the total solutions advantage only from Comcast Business. It's the largest, fastest fiber-powered network for small business. Gig speeds with equipment and security included, and a five-year price lock. No one does business like Comcast Business. Switch today. Get started for$60 a month for 12 months when you add an advanced solution to a qualifying internet package. Limited time offer. Restrictions apply. New customers only. Requires 300 megabits per second internet, security edge, and additional qualifying service. One-year agreement, paperless billing, and auto pay with bank account required.
23:06Taxes and fees extra. Hi, Diva. It's Rachel. And Jordan. Yeah, hi. Quick question. Why are you not spending your Venmo balance? Yeah, we're concerned. You can like buy stuff with it. You love buying stuff. And earn cash back on eligible purchases.
23:18Melissa Lee:You love purchasing eligible things. So the money your friend sent you yesterday, that's today's ramen or ride share or eye patches. The skincare kind, not the pyro kind. Spend with Venmo and you can earn cash back with Venmo Stash. Venmo Stash bundle terms and exclusions apply. Max$100 cash back per month. See terms at Venmo.me slash slash terms. ID verification required to use a Venmo balance. At Venture Global, we think about what can be done, not what's usually done. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time.
23:56So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.
24:08All right, good.
24:09Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The software trade getting hammered today. Salesforce tumbling 7%. That's its worst day since May of 2024. DocuSign, Adobe, Snowflake also taking a significant leg lower. Adobe trading around November 2022 lows. AI-driven disruption worries sparking the latest weakness in software names. Adobe is in your stash, Dan, and you actually flagged the weakness here.
24:32Melissa Lee:Yeah, I mean, it is pretty interesting how these are just being thrown out. wholesale. And I think that some of these names were actually initial good beneficiaries of the narrative back in 2023, if you think about that. And how many of them are down 50 % since then? I have a hard time believing that the loss of market cap, you know, relative to what we've seen as far as earnings, makes a lot of sense here. Because I just think that the valuations are getting cheap. I think a lot of stuff is being discounted. And at some point, some of these companies with, you know, really widely used products right now are going to kind of get the narrative and they're going to have a couple moments here that I think are going to cause investors to rethink it, especially when you think about the strength that we've seen for three years now out of the semis and obviously some of the cloud players.
25:18Melissa Lee:So, yeah, it's not like, you know, Microsoft is part of that, right? Meta is part of that, too. But I think at some point these stocks catch a bit.
25:25Tim Seymour:But there is an existential sort of risk to these stocks or some of them in particular. I mean, CRM today was specifically because of concerns that AI is going to replace some of what they do.
25:37Melissa Lee:Now, 100 percent. But then you say, OK, is the valuation discounting everything? And in terms of Adobe, I think you're pretty close. You just mentioned the levels we're trading down to. And this was a stock that made its all-time high in November of 2021. So you're looking at Adobe here. Even if you sort of give them a bit of a haircut on earnings, it might be trading 11.5, 12 times next year's numbers. So Adobe reports, I believe, on March 12th. So it's off cycle. But this is one 285 or higher, you know, in this area. I think you start to add to a long position. Yeah, I mean, Adobe is one that, you know, certainly in hindsight looks a little bit like a value trap.
26:14And it wasn't terribly cheap a couple of years ago, but it's now three years of you can see that chart. Some of the headlines today were just around Apple beginning to kind of get into their space. And this was some of the some of the concerns we've all talked about with some of these, I think, folks that have had a core business that there's different ways to chip away. Salesforce, to me, is value that I think is very interesting. I think we're at a place here where there's it's it's very underappreciated, the different pieces of this puzzle. And I think we just got done talking about how we don't really know where some of the commoditized parts of the world are going to be.
26:49Software is such a high margin business. I would tend to be looking at things that look really cheap here.
26:54Tim Seymour:All right. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Two big stock moves catching our eye today. What's behind the jumps in Target and Structure Therapeutics and how those names factor into our trader acronyms this year. And speaking of the pharma space, the latest action out of the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. insight into one biopharma's drug pipeline and what the CEO sees in store for the industry. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
27:32How much growth could your 401k be missing right now? Did you set it and forget it? That could be expensive. Studies show professionally managed 401ks could add hundreds of thousands by retirement. That's where Bison comes in. Our advisors actively manage your existing 401k. No transfers or rollovers. Helping power your retirement. Try the no-obligation calculator at powermy401k.com. Bison Wealth is a fiduciary SEC-registered investment advisor. See powermy401k.com for additional information.
28:03Melissa Lee:For the first time since 1994, the FIFA World Cup is coming to the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. And while you can't be in three places at once, you can watch all the galazos, backheels, and drama with Sling TV. Sling gives you instant access to the World Cup without overpaying or overcommitting. Watch the games starting at just$24.99 a month. And with games happening stateside, you won't need to quietly sneak into your living room for a 3 a.m. kickoff. Yep, Sling lets you do that. Visit Sling.com to learn more. My community gives me the confidence to ask myself
28:37Tim Seymour:What would you like the power to do? So every time I'm on the pitch I play for more than myself Oh what a tackle from Naomi Gurma Absolutely brilliant Bank of America champions U.S. Women's National Team member Naomi Gurma And everyone who dares to ask What would you like the power to do? Bank of America Proud to be the official Bank of U.S. Soccer Bank of America, NA, member FDSE. Welcome back to Fast Money. Netflix reportedly weighing a change to its bid for Warner Brothers Discovery assets, potentially making it an all-cash offer. Julie Borson's got the details. Julia. Hey, Melissa. That's right.
29:18Netflix is reportedly working on revised terms for its Warner Brothers Discovery bid, and it has discussed making its offer all cash, this according to a report in Bloomberg. Now, we have no comment from Netflix and we have not heard back from Warner Brothers Discovery that we have reached out. Now, currently, Netflix's offer is 84 percent cash. The rest is in stock. Going all cash would aim to speed up a sale that is expected to take months to close and, of course, faces regulatory approval as well as competition. Paramount Skydance has offered an all cash offer for its bid for all of Warner Brothers Discovery.
29:58Just yesterday, Paramount Skydance sued WBD and CEO David Zaslav as part of its hostile takeover attempt following WBD's board recommendation that shareholders reject Paramount's amended offer. Now, Netflix reports its quarterly earnings a week from today, with Netflix shares down about 12 % since this deal was announced late last year. We do expect how they manage this going forward to very much be in the spotlight. Back over to you. Karen's got a question. Yeah, I've got a question for you, Julie. I don't know if you'll be able to answer, but this still leaves the question of the rest of WBD and how that trades.
30:36And so the cash part, obviously we can compare cash to cash, but we can't quite compare cash and a stub to whatever Paramount ultimate bid might be. That's right. So that's absolutely important to point that out, Karen, because Netflix is only buying the studios and streaming division. That leaves the linear networks, what you might think of as the legacy discovery assets. And of course, you have Paramount Skydance, which is looking to buy the entirety of it. Now, if this were to go forward as it is now with Netflix just buying the studio and streaming, you would see those old assets, those old legacy discovery assets continue to trade as a separate company.
31:19But of course, they might be subject to some M &A activity as well. So as you look at shareholders trying to decide what to do here, you're right. It's not apples to apples. But at least now, if Netflix doesn't make this change, it would both be cash versus cash.
31:35Tim Seymour:All right. Julia, thank you. Julia Boorstin. What's your take? I mean, the appeal of the speed of the transaction, I get, but... I don't get that, actually, because I think the speed of the transaction isn't due to the stock part. You just need to file a proxy. The shareholders need to vote. I don't think that time frame is longer than what approval would take. So if they went through that and got the approval... They could do it concurrently. So I'm not, unless I'm missing, maybe I'm missing something there, but that part I don't quite understand. What I'm missing is why the all-cash offer. Like, you know, what...
32:13What does it gain? Yeah, if they've already won this, My sense is that you're already deep into breakup fees and things that looks insurmountable. Why do this?
32:24Melissa Lee:Yeah. Netflix reports on the 20th, and this is not going to be resolved. I don't think it's going to be resolved by then. But I think you're going to see a pretty significant relief rally on the earnings release. So I think the average price target, according to street accounts,$127-ish from analysts. This has gotten itself to levels where valuation, regardless of outcome, is very compelling. All right.
32:45Tim Seymour:Coming up, Insight in Focus. The biotech CEO joins us from the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference with more on his company's growth strategy in the face of a huge patent cliff looming. Back right after this.
33:03Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks pulling back from records as earnings season kicked off. The Dow falling nearly 400 points. The S &P down two tenths of a percent, snapping a three-day winning streak along with the Dow. And the Nasdaq also with a small loss down a tenth of a percent. Silver continuing its climb, hitting a fresh all-time high in today's session, settling about one and a half percent higher, up more than 22 percent this year already. Shares of Shake Shack higher again today. The stock now on a nine-day winning streak, up more than 23 percent in that time, mowing up two percent after saying it delivered 63 planes in December, bringing its 2025 annual total to 600 aircraft, outselling rival Airbus for the first time since 2018.
33:41Tim Seymour:And Intel jumping another 7 % today after analysts at KeyBank upgraded the stock to an overweight with a$60 price target, citing AI data center demand. The stock is up nearly 30 % already this year. Well, Insight is one of the big winners in biotech over the past year, surging 43%, adding over$6 billion in market value in that time. The company, though, faces loss of exclusivity of its bestselling blood cancer drug Jackify in 2028 and is increasing its focus on commercialization and R &D to offset that patent cliff. For more, Insight CEO Bill Murie joins us now from the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference.
34:15Tim Seymour:Bill, great to have you with us. Thanks for having me, Melissa. How should we think about how those revenues, which were projected to be around$3 billion in 2025, Jackify, how you will replace those revenues? You've already laid out a plan. You started laying this groundwork in October, I believe, of the prioritization of seven products that you will then find two or three blockbusters. How confident are you that you'll be able to replace that$3 billion when the time comes? Yeah, we've made a lot of progress in 2025. As you know, you can't cut or buy your way through these LOEs. And I think there's two parts to the solution.
34:55One is to continue to perform in terms of our core business, X-Jackify, which will be up almost 40 % in 2025 over 2024. And that's an important part of the solution. And the other is we advanced, you know, seven programs in 2025, and they're being supported today by 14 phase three trials. I think that people have much greater visibility into the growth trajectory of the business and the breadth and depth of the pipeline. And I think we're going to be able to navigate this cliff in a way that's acceptable to everybody.
35:26Tim Seymour:You've said you only need two or three winners out of the seven. So how should we think about when you do deliver those phase three results in terms of total addressable markets and potential revenues? Sure. You can never be perfect and you have to assume some attrition in your pipeline. I think the outlier opportunities and insight are the three targeted therapies we're developing for blood cancer. And that is the central identity of the company. There are no targeted treatments today for people with blood cancer. We have three in development. Our monoclonal antibody targeting CalR, which is sort of a rogue protein that produces problems in the bone marrow, is number one.
36:07We also have two solid tumor oncology programs, a G12D inhibitor for pancreatic cancer and a TGF-beta-bipD1, which is a bispecific for colorectal cancer. Those are two high-incidence cancers that have essentially missed the IO revolution. I think those are the outlier opportunities. And if we were successful with those compounds, I think we'd set up a high watermark for insight and go way beyond Jackify. And there are others that are relevant, too.
36:34Tim Seymour:Are you completely focused on what is in your pipeline? You had mentioned you can't buy your way out of LOE, but some other companies are trying to do exactly that. So how do you view sort of strategic M &A or possibly, you know, selling some compounds yourself? It's a really good question. We have a balance sheet that at the end of the year is roughly$3 billion. It'll grow to roughly$5 billion by the end of 2026. And so we have firepower. It'll be an important part of the growth strategy, and it'll be used to either strengthen or extend the core. We're not going to chase deals or try to fill a revenue gap.
37:09We'll look for assets that are high fit in terms of insights, sort of capabilities, and where we have a great deal of knowledge and expertise and assets that can produce, over the long term, durable revenue earnings and cash flow. So definitely part of the growth strategy that will complement what we have inside the company.
37:31Tim Seymour:And in terms of getting that pipeline to commercialization, are you going to attempt to use or obtain a national priority voucher from the FDA in order to move some of these products through the finish line faster? It's a good question. I think there are a lot of options for accelerating the development and ultimately the approval of these compounds. We're evaluating all of them. As you know, our job is to convert science into FDA approvals and ultimately business results. And so that'll be part of our consideration. All right, Bill, great to speak with you. Thanks so much for your time. Thanks, Melissa.
38:08Tim Seymour:Bill Murie, the CEO of Insight, again, up 45 % or so in the past year.
38:13Melissa Lee:Yeah, it's had a great run. I mean, not that it matters. You go back historically, we're nowhere close to where we've been. With that said, I mean, this is real earnings with real revenue, with real meaningful valuations that I think are reasonable in this environment. I don't know if this becomes an acquisition target. It's probably sort of maybe at the upper end of value in terms of market cap. But I think there are a lot of reasons like the stock, especially this phase three study that's about to happen.
38:39Tim Seymour:Yeah, the interest just in biotechs overall and health care, this conference seems to be very different. The flows into the sector have been, you know, remarkable from the general's community for the first time in many years and also venture capital going into this area. Which is kind of surprising given what you think the administration wants to do. And, you know, for the last year, for certainly the last year, it felt like, all right, there is a bullseye on this industry. And it's a very different feel right now. There's a lot more from the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Mad Money. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEOs of Amgen, Regenron, Novartis, and Cardinal Health.
39:16Tim Seymour:Catch the full interviews top of the hour. Next up on FAST, day two of the 2026 acronym unveiling. Will the chairwoman follow the rules this time? Could this be Tim Seymour's year? We'll get their picks in a few minutes.
39:38Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. It is time to unveil two more 2026 trader acronyms today. Karen Feinerman and Tim Seymour lay out their picks. But before we begin, we thought we would revisit the rules. The acronym number one must spell out a real word or name. Each letter must match the first letter of the ticker and one letter per company or ETF. Now, last year's third place finisher, Karen, was up almost 34 percent with CARBED, although A stood for BABA. Easter for oil, OIH, and somehow R was for United Rentals, O's for rentals, R for rentals. Somehow. All that said, Karen, what is your 2026 acronym?
40:18Tim Seymour:Well, what's your point there? My acronym is I'll be dang. Be dang. That is my acronym. Wait, what? Yes. I'll be dang? Listen, if you go to a doctor and you want their opinion, do you say, please give it to me in haiku? No, you just want to know what they think. So this is mine. Boeing, again, I like it. We all the reasons we know why. Cash flow positive coming up. Dell, really disappointing last year. Up mildly, should have been up way more. I think they'll get it together this year. Amazon, when you look at where Walmart is trading and when you look at their AWS, this is just too cheap. N is Novo.
40:55I love that they're in front now. They're ahead in the oil GLP space. A related one, and I did not come up with this acronym today. I came up with it last week. It's obvious you were thinking about this. G, which clearly means structured therapeutics. I don't want to hear it why it isn't. Today was a good day. This is, you know, but that has, because I do think they're a takeover target. It is a land grab in the oral GLP-1 space, and they have some land.
41:22Tim Seymour:So basically, you did follow many of the rules, except for making it an actual word, because obviously B-dang is not a word. And can structured be G? I mean, I know.
41:36Melissa Lee:All year this has to go on.
41:38Tim Seymour:Be dang, yeah. Okay, let me come up with a word that's easy where I don't care how the stocks do. Is that what you guys are saying? No.
41:46Melissa Lee:Couldn't you have gone to ChatGPT and just seen if it comes up with another word? I love the fact that Karen continues to break the rules and is absolutely without. Couldn't you be as simple as guys joke? Without remorse. No, I can't. I am sorry to hear what Tim's acronym is.
42:03Tim Seymour:because band was in the green. Or bland. Or Blysep even. Or 2 % was the gain. Better than Bicep or Blysep. Being early in the case of a couple of my other acronyms on stuff like Alibaba and, you know, anyway. Let's get into Timbo. That's right. What is Timbo is a word? What's not a word? You can make an argument. The Brazilian tree, apparently. That was my nickname growing up. Or it's a West African surname that means strong. Anyway, the bottom line is Target. This is a company, change of character, but it's classic how I like to pick them. Bombed out names that I think actually have turned the corner.
42:40We know management change. We know there's actually different segments that they're moving into. I like it. iDevo, International. This is my ATF. International has outperformed. It's already done it again this year. I think it will continue to be a place investors want to be, however you choose to invest there. M is Melco. This is, of course, Macau. This is, of course, gaming. And I don't think I'm rolling the dice on this. I think this is a case where this one gross gaming revenues have underperformed over the last couple of months. This stock has pulled back 35 percent in a blink. I think we're starting to see China normalize.
43:13B, I could have been like Karen. Actually, Biogen could have been biotech. But instead, I chose Biogen and I chose it because they've got five, at least five to six drugs in phase two or three in their pipeline that could be major catalysts in 26, including Lakembi. I think this is going to be a big performance. It's already had a big move off the bottom. Oracle also fits the name of, look, I don't love Oracle here. I just think this thing's so beaten up. I think it's a world-class company. I don't even know if they're going to get to any of those AI contracts. Right now, valuation, they're not in the price.
43:45It's Timbo, folks, and it's here. Did you toy with Best Buy for Bimbo? Is that ever on there? I mean, look, what we haven't said is that the rules could change at any point. This could be Bimbo. I mean, by the end of the year, it could be. There's all kinds of things it could turn into. Yes, all year, Dan. Yes, we're here every night.
44:05Melissa Lee:I have a haiku to take us out since Karen mentioned haiku. Karen's acronym, heads exploding everywhere, FM rule breaker.
44:17Tim Seymour:Nice.
44:17Melissa Lee:That's a haiku.
44:18Tim Seymour:That's a beautiful haiku. We do haiku. Wow. I don't even know what haiku is.
44:22Melissa Lee:575. 575, brother.
44:23Tim Seymour:All right. Coming up. 6-6-7. 6-7-9-0. 6-7-6-7. Travel in telecom spots. There we are. The group hitting multi-year lows. Are traders dialing in for a rebound? Or is it time to hang up on this trade? Fast Money's back in two.
44:47Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Telecom stocks in the red today and hitting some multi-year lows. AT &T at its lowest level in nearly a year. T-Mobile trading at lows not seen since August of 2024 and Verizon also falling 2 % today. Dan, I believe you brought this up on our call. You were the only trader actually who dialed in to her.
45:06Melissa Lee:Karen was busy coming up with an abomination of an acronym. It takes a long time. You think these things write themselves? Come on. You know, one of the things about T-Mobile, I got to go with the landman here. You know, Billy Bob Thornton has been all over these commercials. Now, expected to have 15 % earnings growth, 7 % sales growth this year, better margin structure than that of Verizon and AT &T. And if you think about how much the stock is down from those all time high, it just started to look interesting here. I mean, it just seems like baby with the bathwater in all of these wireless names.
45:34The telecom stocks. But in June of last year, even midsummer, we were saying, oh, my gosh, are these A.I. names? I mean, a lot of these names were actually well, well into multi-year highs. T-Mobile has been doing this for many years. So I agree. I mean, I think that's the highest quality name with the best growth prospects. I sold out of AT &T whatever fall of last year. I don't see myself coming back. I don't know why you'd want to own it here.
46:00Melissa Lee:I'm looking at T-Mobile, always going to trade at a premium to its peers without question, but it should. And to your earlier point, it sold off significantly over the last few months. I mean, they report on the 4th of February. I think this is a name like over the next couple of weeks, you're looking for a spot to get long into earnings.
46:15Tim Seymour:Up next, final trades.
46:31Tim Seymour:Final trade time. Timbo. I should ask some guy, what's the M in Timbo? Melco. That's my final trade. Thank you, guy. Thank you. Karen. Yes, so J.P. Morgan. I thought this really was overdone. So I like J.P. Morgan here better than yesterday with this news. Sam.
46:49Melissa Lee:Yeah, I'm a guy. It's not in your junk guy, but T-Mobile getting kind of interesting here.
46:54Tim Seymour:A lot in his junk, though.
46:55Melissa Lee:There is.
46:55Tim Seymour:Yeah. Guy?
46:56Melissa Lee:No, that's true. Truer words have never been spoken on this show. Yeah. A lot going on. Have you seen before Mac Moran, Mellie? You should take a look at it.
47:07Tim Seymour:All right. Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5 Mad Money. Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
47:40To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer.
47:46Tim Seymour:I'm honored to make history and to make my community proud. What a brilliant tackle from Naomi Kerma. What would you like the power to do? Bank of America, proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer. Bank of America and a member FDSC.
From the publisher
Another affordability push from the White House, as the Trump administration targets power costs associated with the AI buildout. The companies in focus, and how they could help offset the electricity costs. Plus The latest from JPMorgan’s Health Care conference. What one bipharma CEO sees in store for the industry.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.