Would You Rather?: Goldman Sachs or The Mag7… And Structure Therapeutics CEO 1/15/26

15 Jan 2026 · 44 min · 20 chapters

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In short

Fast Money episode centers on “Would You Rather?” between Goldman Sachs and the Mag 7, arguing cyclical bank exposure versus mega-cap tech growth.

Guests

Tom Michaud, CEO of KBW (Stifel company), focuses on bank stock relative performance, deregulation, and credit normalization risk; Ray Stevens, CEO of Structure Therapeutics, discusses its oral small-molecule GLP-1 obesity pipeline and M&A interest; plus Emily Wilkins reports on Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s stance on a stalled U.S. crypto regulation bill.

Key claims

Goldman’s sales/trading and risk management could outperform if tech softens; regional banks may catch up as money-center banks re-rate; chip demand is being questioned after TSMC guidance and AI capex timing; the crypto bill is blocked over stablecoin rewards and tokenization of equities; Structure Therapeutics has runway to 2028 and aims for “best-in-class” eleneglipron (Phase 3) and oral amylin (ACCG2671).

Notable examples

S&P/KBW bank performance gap, TSMC earnings/spending, Spotify subscription price hikes, OpenAI investor letter, yen near lows, and GLP-1 FDA delay for Eli Lilly.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Opening Discussion: Would You Rather?

0:02 to 0:22

Panel introduces the main topic of Goldman Sachs versus the Mag 7.

“Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand.”

Opening Discussion: Would You Rather?

1:41 to 2:19

Panel introduces the main topic of Goldman Sachs versus the Mag 7.

“On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Worth, Steve Grasso, and Guy Adami.”

Debate: Goldman Sachs vs. Mag 7

2:19 to 4:50

Panelists discuss the performance of Goldman Sachs in comparison to mega-cap tech stocks.

“How long have we been doing this show for?”

Market Analysis: Cyclicality vs. Growth Stocks

4:50 to 6:49

Discussion about the cyclical nature of banks versus the growth trajectory of tech.

“I would go with Goldman because I think – No, I think I took the other side.”

Insights from Tom Michaud: Regional vs. Money Center Banks

6:49 to 10:42

Tom Michaud shares insights on regional banks vs. big banks and current market conditions.

“Okay, well, that's funny mentals, Carter.”

Deregulation and Its Impact on Banks

10:42 to 16:20

Discussion on the effects of deregulation in the banking sector and emerging risks.

“He is the CEO of KBW, a Stiefel company.”

Regional vs. National Banks

16:20 to 18:40

A discussion on investment strategies focusing on regional banks versus larger institutions.

“Yeah, so regionals, I think this is the time to be in regionals, the smaller banks.”

Taiwan Semiconductor's Growth and Investments

18:40 to 20:59

Insights into Taiwan Semiconductor's recent earnings and its impact on tech investments.

“The objective is to bring 40 percent of Taiwan's entire supply chain and production to domestically bring it into America.”

Taiwan Semiconductor's Growth and Investments

21:04 to 21:30

Insights into Taiwan Semiconductor's recent earnings and its impact on tech investments.

“Come have a listen at transunion.com slash extracreditpod.”

Crypto Regulation and Market Reactions

22:44 to 26:56

Discussion of the latest developments in crypto regulation and market implications.

“Now, banking groups have said that allowing certain rewards will mean billions less in bank deposits and less lending ability.”
Show all 20 chapters

Energy Sector Predictions

28:32 to 29:38

Discussion on the future of energy stocks and market dynamics in the sector.

“premium subscriptions, making it the most expensive major music streamer out there.”

OpenAI Investor Letter Insights

29:38 to 31:06

Analysis of OpenAI's recent investor letter and implications for the company.

“It's addressed here to investors and to bankers.”

Eli Lilly's Obesity Drug Delay

31:30 to 32:58

Discussion on Eli Lilly's stock drop following FDA decision delay on its obesity pill.

“Eli Lilly dropping almost 4 % for the stock's worst day since August.”

Structure Therapeutics CEO Interview

32:58 to 34:38

Interview with Structure Therapeutics CEO discussing their drug development and market position.

“Well, remember, it ran out of gas in 24, and so did Novo, but then it recovered, and Novo just kept bombing out.”

Market Dynamics in Obesity Treatment

34:38 to 38:28

Insights on competition and market strategies among obesity drug manufacturers.

“pharmaceutical companies are looking at this very carefully.”

Acquisition Potential in the Pharma Sector

38:28 to 39:50

Discussion on the potential for acquisitions in the obesity drug market and implications for investors.

“So during this conference, did you have talks with Merck or Novo?”

Trader Acronym Picks Overview

39:50 to 42:00

Preview of the upcoming segment focusing on trader acronyms and stock picks for the year.

“This stock, although it's rallied already, could go for a premium of 40 to 70 to 100 percent more than it is.”

Investment Insights: Cybersecurity and 5G

42:00 to 45:06

Discussion on cybersecurity companies and the growth of 5G technology.

“When they turn profitable, I think there's no looking back.”

Analyzing the Japanese Yen's Decline

45:06 to 46:31

Chart analysis of the Japanese yen's performance and potential future movements.

“Well, so in this case, it's higher in the chart, which is lower.”

Final Trades and Earnings Expectations

46:31 to 47:59

Panelists share their final trades and expectations for Netflix earnings.

“Are we still – we have acronyms next week, too?”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:02Mazda has been named Consumer Reports' safest new car brand. It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features. So you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead, and ready before problems ever start. Mazda. More of what matters most to you. Go to mazdausa.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product. At Edward Jones, we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest. It's also taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward.

0:51The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, member SIPC.

1:02Tim Seymour:Live in the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A semi-surge results from one key chipmaker helping boost the entire group. What's it say about the state of the AI trade? And is it too late to get in? We'll debate that. And crypto crunched a key bill on regulation hitting a major roadblock in Capitol Hill. What happened? And what's it mean for the future of the industry? Plus, digging in on the moves in the yen. The CEO of Structure Therapeutics gives us the latest in the GLP One race. And Stephen Carter ready to lay out their 2026 acronyms.

1:33Tim Seymour:One's a bit of a puzzle. The other might be heading for retirement. We'll explain later on this hour. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from the studio. Be at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Worth, Steve Grasso, and Guy Adami. And we'll get to the moving chips in just a minute, but we will start with the ultimate game. Oh, boy. And I mean ultimate game. Oh, boy. Of Would You Rather, of course. Goldman Sachs Surging to new records on the back of earnings this morning, shares of the investment banking giant have gained more than 11 percent already this year. Meanwhile, the Mag 7 has largely struggled in 2026 with only Alphabet and Amazon outpacing the broader market.

2:07Tim Seymour:Meta, Microsoft, Apple all down 5 percent or more this year. So even though mega cap tech has helped indices get to record highs, would you rather Goldman Sachs or the Mag 7? It's an interesting question. Guy. How long have we been doing this show for? Oh, you know, 19 years. Last week was 19 years. This is the first time we've ever had this would-you-rather, a Goldman Sachs versus a Mag 7. It's a stock that is performing. And the first time in the A block. Wins at its back. A lot of firsts. Versus a big part of the market that had been growth. I'll play your reindeer game because I like doing this.

2:43You know, with 17%, 18 % EPS growth, I think despite the move, Goldman Sachs is still a stock that's going to perform. And, look, I'm not going to play which one of the Mag 7 I don't like. But in the aggregate, I think Goldman can outperform them in 26. Valuation is not ridiculously stretched, and the world is sort of lining up for exactly what they do. So my answer is G.S.

3:03Karen Finerman:Well, boy, I'll just take the other side just because I should take the other side of Guy.

3:09Tim Seymour:You can agree with Guy. Here's what I think.

3:11Karen Finerman:I think the news flow for the banks is extraordinary right now, and that's everything from the macro. I mean macro in terms of D.C. I mean macro in terms of the economy. I mean macro in terms of the yield curve. You know, you listen to DJ Saul. Goldman's telling you that actually it's going to be another incredible year in terms of what I think is probably only begun to to really spread its wings, which is the investment banking in the capital markets business, which I think, you know, it feels like it's been a bonanza. it's going to be a bigger bonanza. And especially given there's some sense, I think there's some sense of urgency to get as much done in the next 18 months as possible.

3:49Karen Finerman:And for whatever that means, whether it's going to go away poof or not, yield curve steeper, dynamics with DREG, the fact that banks have predictable earnings flow and the fact that banks can give capital back means there's a lot of people that want to own banks for different reasons than they could for a long time. I just think if we look at Microsoft and if we You look at, for the better part, Meta and even Amazon and Apple. These are names that have done nothing for a year. And I still find it hard to believe that the earnings growth that they've given us and supported. So I'm going to have to take the other side, even though I get why we're doing this.

4:23Karen Finerman:Would you rather today? It's fascinating. And I think it does make some sense.

4:27Tim Seymour:I mean, Solomon effectively said that parties are rushing to do their deals because there's, as you said, sort of a feeling of got to get it done quickly while the environment is right here. And barring a big macro sort of event, things are going to be great this year. That's what he said. Yeah, I think M &A, for all the reasons Tim just laid out and Guy laid out, I think I would go with Goldman. Wow. Three so far. I would go with Goldman because I think –

4:51Karen Finerman:No, I think I took the other side. I hedged it very well. But, I mean, I basically said I think that the MAG-7s have underperformed so much and the move Goldman's had that the charts tell me – What did you go with? You went with Goldman Sachs. So you took the other side. So you went with MAG-7. Yeah. I'm going with gold. I'm going on the same side. It's amazing how confused the three of us got on this. I wasn't confused. Not really. I wasn't really confused. I guess it was my own confusion. I apologize. I was trying to give cover to Tim. Tim seemed confused on this. I would go with M &A. I would go with D-Reg.

5:22Clear his day. I would go with that aspect of it. I think the MAG-7, in large part, commoditized business, those prices do come down. I think we're in for prices coming down. Revenues come down. Earnings come down.

5:37Tim Seymour:Prices for cloud? Prices for what? Yeah, chips. I think that chips will come down. I think prices for chips will come down. I think prices for cloud will come down. I think as a whole, you're seeing peak pricing in MAG7 names that are involved in cloud.

5:55Guy Adami:Well, obviously very different. And as Guy said, this might be the most extraordinary. Phil Carter's coming onto my team. Unseen sort of would you rather. But here's the thing. It's really not about Goldman. That's the status quo. Yes. Right. It's about one thing. This is a highly cyclical business versus the growth that are implied in the true marquee growth names that otherwise called MAG7 and that ilk. We know that Goldman in 07 made almost$25 a share. And in 09 it made four. That's called cyclicality that you're never going to see in mature growth stocks in the tech specter. So it really gets down to one thing.

6:32Guy Adami:if we are heading into any sort of contraction or period of economic softness or volatility or the leverage that can go the wrong way implied in any financial institution, then by definition, it's tech. And if that doesn't happen, the better bet is to just ride the ride with Goldman.

6:50Tim Seymour:Okay, well, that's funny mentals, Carter. Yeah, I was going to say, no, no, no, but no, but all the charts

6:54Guy Adami:and funny mentals, same thing. Remember, I started as a fundamental strategist at the highest level possible, right? And then I realized that was nonsense, so then I went over to charts. Exactly, funny mentals. But I can still talk about them like everybody else. But do the charts correspond with that view? Yes, because guess what's acting better? Now let's talk about the charts, just the charts. Which player on the field right now is acting better?

7:16Karen Finerman:There's no question.

7:18Guy Adami:There's no question. Golden Sacks. Thank you. That was straightforward. Yep. Okay.

7:23Tim Seymour:So there you have it. There you have it. But I'm glad you distilled this would you rather into these sort of bigger issues, which is why we pose the question. And that is, you know, do you go with the highly cyclical, right, leverage to the economy? Or do you go with the group that has this growth trajectory? And also, do you believe in that growth trajectory still? I mean, there's question marks about this AI trade now in terms of the investment. You see it in today's trade. TSM comes out, great guidance, great quarter, et cetera. Who wins? Picks and shovels. Not Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Apple.

7:56Tim Seymour:And he was questioning it. He was questioning the trade. He was questioning the$52 to$56 billion investment in CapEx because it takes two to three years to build a fab. So right now, he's worried about an oversupply of chips in AI, and he's worried about the demand two to three years out because that's TMC's wheelhouse.

8:16Karen Finerman:Okay, so because I'm the one guy that made this a good segment because, in fact, I took the other side. Thank you, Tim, for saying that. It would have been everybody on the other side of the boat. I'm just going to argue that there's nothing commoditized about any of their businesses. You think Meta's got a commoditized business? You think Google's got a commoditized business? I don't either. So I'm just pointing out that... Anything in chips is a commoditized business, but those two are not. When I hear Mag 7, I don't think they're seven... NVIDIA has dominated Mag 7, but I hear you.

8:44Guy Adami:But given that the whole thing is determined by something that would be exogenous, right, that would affect Goldman, these investment banks have matured, if you will, to the point where they're much better risk managers, right? So you're not going to get that kind of drawdown typically in the earnings stream unless something truly exogenous would happen, which would bring down everything. And then the question is, would the beta implied in the financials just make them go down more than the gross stocks? And you would have to say that's the case.

9:13Karen Finerman:And if you truly believe, sorry, that they are better risk managers than they've ever been, and I think there's an argument for that. There's no question about it.

9:20Tim Seymour:The cash and the balance sheet for all of these banks make them sort of more. They've had to be. They've had to be.

9:24Karen Finerman:But what usually happens when you have some type of a pullback, I mean, there's no question that there's always leverage in the system in places you don't expect it. And there's certainly exposure that these banks have. It's not pure and clean and easy. The businesses that we're talking about that were on display today, this week, were sales and trading. Sales and trading on some level has become more of a riskless business. It doesn't mean that they're not taking positions, but I think that's part of the reason why it's an exciting time for these banks. Sorry, Guy, go ahead. You're 100 percent right.

9:54And if there were to be a downturn in the tech stocks, oddly, well, not oddly enough, I think Goldman actually wins to that for the exact reason Tim just talked about. Their sales and trading business will continue to do well, which they're now, by the way, being rewarded for for years. They're not being penalized for it, but they were not getting the valuation on the back of fixed income currency. So then we are talking about a re-rating.

10:16Tim Seymour:I mean, if anybody is saying that these bank stocks are expensive, what you all are saying implies a re-rating of the stocks.

10:22Karen Finerman:It's already happened. Yeah. Yes.

10:24Tim Seymour:That it's a valid, durable re-rating, I guess I should say.

10:27Karen Finerman:I think so. And again, which then means you might want to look to the regional banks, which haven't re-rated the same way that the money centers have. You know, but you know what would be great to get on the show? It would be like a banker that's immersed in these types of things. Yeah, you think so. That can speak intelligently about it.

10:42Tim Seymour:Today's your lucky day. It's like Christmas here on Fast Money. For more, let's bring in Tom Michaud. He is the CEO of KBW, a Stiefel company. He's that guy, exactly. I'm going to start off with what Tim had posited, and that is regionals over the money centers now for the difference in performance. Would you go with that, given where we are? We would. That is actually one of our calls for this year.

11:04Karen Finerman:We would agree with Tim. Right again. Historically, the regionals have traded at a premium to the bigger banks, but the bigger banks, frankly, have gotten better. So they used to trade, like I said, at a premium. Now they've been at a 20 percent discount to the bigger banks. and we believe that that gap's going to close, but that doesn't mean the bigger banks won't do well. We think the regional banks are going to catch up. You even already see it. S &P's up 1.5 percent-ish. The big banks are up three year-to-date, and the smaller banks, regional banks, are up six. So that sort of movement is already underway this year.

11:39And M &A in the space, Tom, you talked about it, I think, last time you were here, but you're going to see it in spades in 26, which we are now just beginning. So speak to the till when that goes.

11:47Karen Finerman:Well, I heard the discussion earlier. The way I would describe it is you're on the clock. You know, I think a lot of a lot of corporate America feels like they're on the clock. And so especially financials, because the stark difference in the regulatory approach from the prior administration, this one is so wide that you feel like if you want to do something, you should do it right now. And also, you know, stocks are an all time high ish. We've got an economy that's going well. So there are a lot of good reasons to take action now. Okay.

12:16Tim Seymour:What kind of how do you think about the exposure of particularly the money center banks to the AI boom when it comes to the debt that they're helping to underwrite the money that they're lending directly? I mean, should we be concerned if we're worried about an AI bubble? What is the extrapolation back to these banks?

12:34Karen Finerman:Well, look, first of all, one of the one of the potential negatives is that the industry is over earning on credit right now. Now, we're thinking that charge offs are around 25 basis points. I mean, that could be 35 or 40 basis points pretty quickly. So credit has been one of the really bullish parts of the story, but it could normalize, right? But the banks, so I'm sure along the way someone may hit a bump in the road. But the banks are still pretty cautious, I believe. I don't believe they've changed their risk metrics much. So private credit has been willing to step in more where there's more leverage involved.

13:10Karen Finerman:That doesn't mean that a bank might not make a mistake. But I think the industry has been tried to sharpen their pencil and stay pretty conservative. So, Tom, that's fascinating. So because much in the way after the financial crisis, it seemed like the credit issues were transferred from the private sector to the public sector. At least the balance sheets were cleaned up, given to the public sector to then deal with it. I think a money center banks is kind of like the public sector. What you're now saying is that there's a lot more hair in the private sector. Does that mean, and I don't hear you saying you see a major bubble or problem coming, but does it mean that there needs to be more regulation there at a time when there's less regulation everywhere else?

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13:51Karen Finerman:I mean, is the private credit world getting a little bit over its skis? I mean, I think there'll be winners and losers in both categories. I mean, there are some really fantastic non-bank players. So I think like we have one on this week, you'll have winners and losers all around. But but I think there's I heard you talk about re-rating for bank stocks earlier. Right. I think we're in a jet, notwithstanding the 10 percent credit card cap. We'll put that aside. But when you look at the big stuff that's happening, we are in a generational moment of deregulation, which is two things. One is since the global financial crisis, regulators use perimeter regulation.

14:30Karen Finerman:Banks can and can't do things. They also regulated banks by asset size. It's now switching to they're going to regulate the business model, and they're willing to take innovation into the system. I think that means that banks are going to level the playing field a little bit with the competitors you said, not all the way. I think banks are going to be able to be on their front foot more. And so I think the playing field is going to level, which could allow these banks to continue to re-rate higher.

14:56Tim Seymour:Is there any concern, though, about this deregulatory tailwind, given some of the proposals the administration has come out with recently highlighting affordability? Particularly, you mentioned the credit card rate cap, for instance. So there's something else. There's a fine line here.

15:12Karen Finerman:Just as somebody who's been doing this for a long time, I used to think that the political season got hot in a midterm year in July. Well, assume it's January this year and it's game on. I mean, the number of proposals you're hearing, whether it's defense companies not paying dividends or it's the governor of New York saying insurance companies should reward profits back to their policyholders. You're going to see a lot of progressive proposals all around. And the question is, how much of it is the market going to believe? I think the primary reason why the bank stocks did poorly earlier in the week was I would say it's two parts.

15:48Karen Finerman:The credit card cap, 10 percent. Maybe it was one part. the traders really had a lot of momentum into them before the earnings. And while the earnings were really good, maybe they weren't good enough. But also it's the macro issues of the election season. So I think there's a chance for investors, you're going to see a lot more proposals. All I can say is that if it takes an act of Congress, it takes a long time to happen, and there'll be lots of chance to debate it. And a credit card cap, for example, is one of those things we believe.

16:19Tim Seymour:Tom, great to see you, as always. Thank you, Tom Michaud, KBW. Thank you. We're on the bank trade. Yeah, so regionals, I think this is the time to be in regionals, the smaller banks. And if you look at credit cards, credit cards have a 5 % impact to portfolios on regional banks' balance sheet. Commercial real estate is a lot bigger input for that. So that credit wall, that rate wall that we talked about last night on the show, I think has a bigger impact. And as long as we can mitigate that, they've outperformed by 500 basis points. The larger banks, I think you stay regional. How do regions look versus Money Center?

16:51Guy Adami:Well, that's the temptation. So it's trade. Let me put it in the context. The KRE is relatively new, only has history back to 2006. There is something called the NASDAQ Bank Index, and it goes back to 1976, 2006, 76. It has 250 names versus the KRE at 120. If you look at the NASDAQ Bank Index and its relative performance to the Russell 2000, which is the small cap, it is at 50-year lows. So the question is, can you catch it for a trade or catch carry? But it's not a good area to make money. Regional banks are the simple, most at risk. You manage it wrong, you go upside down. We've had the S &L crisis.

17:31Guy Adami:We've had all sorts of – and also, remember, what was that thing about a year and a half ago where everyone just with their phone withdrew all the money? What was that thing? Remember that? Run on the bank. Yeah. I mean, so a trade, yes. But as an investment, 50-year lows, small-cap banks to the small-cap index?

17:47Tim Seymour:But some of the regionals, maybe the ones that you're talking about, are not necessarily small-cap stocks. They are super-regionals. They're not small-caps at all.

17:53Karen Finerman:They're 20, 30,$40 billion companies that are under up.

17:56Guy Adami:So I like PNCs and U.S. Yeah, exactly. Well, those are super-regionals. Super-regionals, yeah.

18:00Karen Finerman:But I think this re-rating has been going on for two years. It didn't just happen. And part of this began when banks were able to start giving more capital back. And I think that's such a big part of this buybacks and divs. They're only going higher.

18:12Tim Seymour:All right. Meantime, Taiwan semi-shares jumping after the chipmaker said earnings grew by 35 percent in its latest quarter, said it expects to increase spending this year. The move helping names like ASML, NVIDIA and AMD post outsized gains today. The U.S. and Taiwan also announcing that Taiwanese chip and tech companies will spend at least$250 billion to boost U.S. production capacity in exchange for relief on tariffs. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was on Power Lunch earlier to talk about the deal.

18:40Karen Finerman:The objective is to bring 40 percent of Taiwan's entire supply chain and production to domestically bring it into America. And here's the goal during President Trump's term.

18:55Tim Seymour:This is fire right now. That would be extraordinarily fast in terms of the timeline for construction. Three years left. I mean, I don't know how they make that timeline. But it's ambitious. You've got to be ambitious. So good for them if they pull it off. I don't think they will. But you mentioned ASML, which reports, I believe, on the 28th. I mean, pull up a chart of this stock. You got a huge move today, but it's on the back of a number of huge moves. Now this is a stock that I think, not that valuation matters, and Carter will say it's not a timing tool, it's gotten itself a little expensive in the earnings.

19:29It got the bump today. I don't know if it gets another bump in the back of earnings.

19:32Tim Seymour:Yeah. Does this reinforce the notion that it's the picks and shovels that are going to be the winners, at least for the here, for the now, until the ROI is proven?

19:40Karen Finerman:I think it reinforces the demand in the space. I'm not ready to say that, you know, the leaders in technology and innovation are washed up. I mean, Taiwan Semi's been in this place for a long time. People just happen to know the company now. But for 20 years, this is what they've been doing. They've been white labeling for the rest of the world. I think, you know, decisive CapEx, fantastic margins are showing that this commoditized business is also becoming more profitable than ever. So I think this is a demand story. I think it's reinforced. I'm very long TSMC.

20:10Guy Adami:Well, essentially, I think the most immediate thing is how well the equal weight Sox Index is doing compared to the actual weight. And that's, of course, because NVIDIA has been dragging. But what we do know is a very cyclical area of the market. And semis only in the past six to eight months have recouped all their relative losses since the dot-com peak. And semis relative to the tech sector peaked in 94. It's tough.

20:36Tim Seymour:Coming up, the next move for Bitcoin as a key crypto bill stands in limbo. While the Coinbase CEO pulled his support and the changes he needs to see before backing it. Plus, turning up the volume and the prices, the price hike coming for Spotify customers and how it's become the most costly way to get your Taylor Swift or bad bunny fix. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.

20:59This episode is brought to you by Extra Credit, TransUnion's financial services podcast. Each episode features subject matter experts who discuss topics that matter most to today's industry leaders. From fraud trends to the state of consumer credit and plenty in between, Extra Credit was created as a way to share unique perspectives, industry happenings, and data-backed insights to help leaders like you adapt to changes in this unpredictable market. Come have a listen at transunion.com slash extracreditpod. That's transunion.com slash extracreditpod.

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22:26Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares at Coinbase and Robinhood sinking today after the Senate Banking Committee postponed a vote on the long-awaited crypto regulation bill. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong polled his support at the 11th hour. Emily Wilkins spoke with him earlier today. She joins us now with the latest. Emily. Hey, Melissa. Well, look, one senator told me today that there were 1 ,000 cuts that killed this vote today on the crypto bill. And Armstrong's tweet was the 1 ,000th. But Armstrong's tweet, it hit on a lot of the issues that senators are struggling to resolve with this bill, main among them this battle over whether crypto exchanges can offer rewards to stablecoin holders, much in the same way that banks offer their customers things like interest.

23:06Now, banking groups have said that allowing certain rewards will mean billions less in bank deposits and less lending ability. But Armstrong told me that he thinks crypto groups should be able to make loans as well. I think the high-level principle here is that we can't really have banks come in and try to kill their competition at the expense of the American consumer. In addition to the banking issue, Armstrong wants to see language removed that would ban the tokenization of equities. And other lawmakers tell me that they're going to need to see some ethics language that could limit how lawmakers and the president can profit from crypto.

23:44So a long way to go still, Melissa, but negotiations are continuing. This thing is not quite dead yet.

23:50Tim Seymour:All right. Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins. We certainly saw crypto run up into this until Armstrong pulled his support. Steve? Yeah, I think the takeaway is you're going to see a bill with better language for the crypto community. So it's net net. I think it's a buy longer term for cryptos. And it's obvious the banks don't want to see those deposits be drawn out and sit on a crypto base. So this is direct competition. But I think judging by they squashed the bill because it didn't have his support, a crypto backer support, crypto CEO support, you're looking for a much better bill going forward, which is much better for crypto.

24:28You look at Coinbase, it's almost down 50 percent since the high of last summer, which is extraordinary, except that it's happened before, twice before in the last couple of years. And each time it's bounced back, it's off cycle when they report. I think they report mid-February. So you don't have that as a catalyst. But I think this is just me. I think you're looking to start to build a long position in Coinbase here.

24:49Guy Adami:Pair twos for me. Bitcoin. Yeah. Coinbase. Don't really like that.

24:55Karen Finerman:I would I would say it's a pair of jacks.

24:58Tim Seymour:I mean, is that better than a pair of twos? What do you think? Obviously, you don't play poker. It's better, right?

25:08Karen Finerman:Coinbase is a pair of jacks. We're rolling the bones here. I mean, I just I also think I said what I said. OK, there's nothing more to it. I realize there are other things that go on sometimes in the show. I think tokenization firms, a lot of them believe that this bill is good and affirms their core business. I think at the end of the day, CFTC is going to be very involved and more regulation means it goes higher.

25:30Tim Seymour:There is a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Pop music, podcasts and price hikes. What's weighing on shares of Spotify today? And should investors turn down the volume on the music streamer? Plus, weight loss drug competition heating up. What one pharma CEO sees in store for the space as the race to bring GLP-1 pills to market heats up. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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28:07Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks rebounding today after posting back-to-back losses. The Dow jumping nearly 300 points. The S &P and Nasdaq both climbing about a quarter of a percent. Crude getting crushed today. WTI settling down 4.5 % after President Trump signaled the unrest in Iran seems to be cooling off. And shares of Spotify 4 % lower today. Analysts at Jeffries lowering their price target on the stock to 750. That's down from 800 but maintaining a buy rating. The music streamer also announcing price hikes for U.S. premium subscriptions, making it the most expensive major music streamer out there.

28:41Tim Seymour:I know that you guys were hot on oil on the call today. So where do you see it going at this point? Commodity, I don't think, goes really anywhere. I mean, it's sort of status quo. It's been that way for a while. I mean, it goes up and down a couple of bucks. But here we are, the same price as we've been for the last six months. The equities are a completely different story. You know, Carter can speak to the charts and Tim has been talking about it. But I think that energy stocks across the board, services, refiners, big cap integrated, go higher in 26. What do you think?

29:09Guy Adami:Agreed. So the service names all came to life earlier, and now the big integrators are catching up. It's still a very small sector, less than 3%. But look what can happen. Materials have come to life aggressively. You see this in truckers, a lot of chemical names. The cyclicality, Alcoa, is a triple off the bottom. The cyclicality implied in this kind of thing can always come over to the energy space and you can get a lot more.

29:31Tim Seymour:We've got a news alert here on OpenAI. Kate Rooney's got the details. Hey, Kate. Hi, Melissa. So I just got a hold of an OpenAI investor letter that was sent out this afternoon. It's addressed here to investors and to bankers. The company reporting in this record high chat GPT usage, both weekly active, daily actives hitting an all time high, they say, in January. momentum also around codex. That's a system that can write code for you. Essentially, it's roughly up 25 percent week over week. Comes as Anthropics Cloud Code is getting a lot of buzz out here and there's some competition there. Finally, a legal update on the ongoing lawsuit with Elon Musk from Elon Musk, OpenAI leadership telling investors it feels, quote, confident in its legal defenses, believes the case is worth no more than$38 million that Musk had previously donated when he was a founder of OpenAI.

30:21Says that outcome isn't guaranteed, though they do warn investors to expect what they call attention-grabbing claims from Musk as that trial approaches. It's set for April. They do reiterate that they've used the lawsuit as baseless. OpenAI did decline to comment on the letter mill.

30:36Tim Seymour:Again, Kate, though, this is to investors as well as bankers. And bankers. Interesting that it's to both, as people have been speculating about a potential IPO, but clearly they're right now in conversations with bankers. All right. Kate, thanks. Kate Rooney.

30:51Karen Finerman:Who writes a letter to investors and bankers?

30:53Tim Seymour:I don't know. I mean, that's the first thing that jumped out at me. Very strange. Nice

30:55Karen Finerman:to have it slip out, you know?

30:57Tim Seymour:Especially when Claude Code is getting a lot of the buzz this guy. I know you're all over Claude Code. No, no, no, no. I'm all about Claude Code. I like that you two are in alignment with that. You were in each other's heads. What, in terms of the bankers and investors. It's strange, no? I've never heard such a thing. Yes, it is.

31:12Karen Finerman:And you both were right to bring it up. But great reporting by Kate. It's not an implication on that.

31:17Tim Seymour:Coming up, small molecules and big opportunities. The CEO of Structure Therapeutics joins us straight from the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference to discuss this company's weight loss pill portfolio as competition stiffens in the obesity space. Fast Money's back right after this.

31:34Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

31:46Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Eli Lilly dropping almost 4 % for the stock's worst day since August. The FDA delaying a decision on whether to approve Lilly's obesity pill until April 10th, according to Reuters, though no reason was cited for the lag. We should note that this was going to achieve fast approval because of the national priority voucher, but a lot of the other candidates for these vouchers, they were also delayed. So this is part of a broader picture here. Lily, I know, is not in either of your acronyms. Novo is in junk. Novo is in yours as well. So, Timbo. Yeah, it would be Timbo.

32:21Karen Finerman:It would be Timbo, and it's not, sorry. But it could be. But you own Novo. If I wanted to break the rules of play the way Karen does, I could call Timbo a name, and I could swap it in. You could go Timbon. I could. Anyway, you own Novo. I own Novo, and I don't need it in an acronym to be excited about it. And I think with Eli Lilly, again, I think there's been a dynamic where the news flow has actually been a little bit of the changing of the guard. It doesn't change the leadership and certainly what seems to be kind of the pricing and margin position. But again, and I'll leave this to Carter because, you know, that chart on Lilly kind of ran out of gas a couple months ago.

32:57Karen Finerman:And today it broke through that 200. So, I mean, if you're, excuse me, the 50, and if you're looking for at least some change in character, we may have started to get that over the last couple weeks, even though I don't think this news flow is any, I don't think the market was that surprised.

33:10Tim Seymour:Is it out of gas?

33:11Guy Adami:Well, remember, it ran out of gas in 24, and so did Novo, but then it recovered, and Novo just kept bombing out. I like Novo here of the two.

33:19Tim Seymour:All right. Well, Structure Therapeutics is another hopeful entrant into the obesity pill space. shares have soared 146 percent since December 8th when the company came out with data on its small molecule oral GLP-1, showing a weight loss profile that's competitive with pills from Lilly and Novo. The company, which is nearing$6 billion in market value, has also been closely watched as a potential M &A target. For more structure, Therapeutics CEO Ray Stevens joins us now. Ray, welcome back to FAST. Thanks for joining us. Thank you, Melissa. It's great to be here from the San Francisco studio this time.

33:51Tim Seymour:Yes, exactly. Your stock has had quite a run. And I'm not just talking about last year. I mean, this week alone, the stock is up 24 percent so far. And a lot of that is on this M &A buzz. Earlier reports indicate that Merck at a dinner from the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference had indicated interest in small molecule oral GLP-1s. Novo has indicated that it wants to do deals to expand its obesity portfolio. And your stock each time went higher. Is that the correct interpretation? Are you a target? We don't comment as a company policy in terms of market speculation or rumors. What I do think is being here at JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, there was a lot of activity, a lot of discussions that were taking place.

34:36With an annual market between$100 and$150 billion, that's an area that many different pharmaceutical companies are looking at this very carefully. And it's not just that it affects obesity. It's that it impacts cardiovascular, liver disease, chronic kidney disease, even certain parts of oncology. And so there's a lot of interest in the obesity space this way and in the adjacencies that we see as well.

35:01Tim Seymour:You must have been the bell of the ball, though, Ray, at this conference. I mean, that that is one of the top topics, right? Obesity and how companies can get more exposure to the obesity drug space. Is that a fair interpretation of what you heard at J.P. Morgan this year? Melissa, it is. And what's really good is obesity is a pandemic. It's finally getting recognized as a pandemic. You know, they say the estimates are by 2030, 3 billion people will be overweight globally. 1 billion, you know, will be obese. In the United States, we're talking about more than 100 million people in the United States alone.

35:37And yet right now, today, they're only being served around 5 million people based on script data. And so there's a real big unmet need to address this pandemic. And as mentioned, all the adjacent diseases that come around with excess weight. Ray, you priced it, I think, an eight and a half million share secondary in December at 65 bucks. The stock never looked back. I guess that's almost$600 million you raised. My question is, do you have the balance sheet runway to go it alone? We do. So we raised$750 million back in December. Now we have about$1.5 billion pro-pharma capital. So that does give us the runway until the end of 2028 to complete our Phase III chronic weight management study.

36:21Tim Seymour:So that Phase III, that's for eleniglipron, Ray? That's correct, for our eleniglipron molecule. Okay, and then for the rest, because you've got a lot of other in study right now, ACCG2671, another small molecule, first in human Phase I at this point, That's got a lot of runway. So that's only the money that you're talking about is only for Eleni Gliperon. No. So let me clarify for that. Thank you for that question, Melissa. So the$1.5 billion that we have right now in capital, that'll take us all the way through completion of Phase 3 with Eleni Gliperon in chronic weight management. It also gives us the runway to continue advancing our, you mentioned ACCG 2671.

37:02That's our oral amylin small molecule, the only one that we're aware of that's currently in the clinic. Very excited about. Amylin is one of the next hot targets in the obesity space. So it'll allow us to advance that to phase two. And then we also have a broad portfolio of obesity medicines based on our structure-based drug discovery platform that's proven to be very, very effective at generating these medicines of going from a peptide medicine to an oral small molecule.

37:30Tim Seymour:How do you see the market shaping up, seeing that Novo is already in the market with an oral, that Lilly will be in the market with its own oral before yours will make it to the market? Are you worried at all that it's going to be sort of a, you know, first out to market, will gain the most share and that there's going to be less for you? No, I don't think so at all. If you look at the history of drug discovery, it was, you think about the statins, you know, it was Mevacor and Zocor from Merck that really, they were the first, number one and number two. It wasn't until Lipitor came out years later, and then Crestor as well, that won the lion's share of the market.

38:04So, you know, what we have is what we call a best-in-class strategy. There's room there. And based on the data that we released in December, we think that we have the potentially best-in-class profile based on efficacy, based on safety, manufacturing, and one of the futures, I think, for this field, combinability, when we combine these medicines with other medicines. So for four reasons, we think we have a best-in-class molecule.

38:28Tim Seymour:So during this conference, did you have talks with Merck or Novo? We don't comment on specific discussions. Not going to comment on specific interactions. It was a very busy week. It was a wonderful week here in San Francisco. A little bit tired now. I live here, so looking forward to getting a little rest as everybody departs San Francisco. I'm sure everybody wanted to talk to you, Ray. Thank you for your time. We appreciate it. Thank you very much, Melissa. I really appreciate the time. All right. So GPCR, real winner in this space. It's in Karen's acronym, we should say, whatever it is. It's either the S for structure or the G for GPCR.

39:11Tim Seymour:Dang. Dang, yeah, yeah. So where would you stand?

39:14Karen Finerman:Well, what's fascinating about this in the context of Lilly and Novo is there's competitions coming. And, you know, this is the whole argument you just framed, Melissa, which is and he spoke to, which is that there may ultimately be a case where there are best in class players that come through. And but that either way, this is not a two horse race and that at some point this becomes somewhat commoditized. And I think that's something investors need to think about with Lilly. Novo is looking for somebody. You've talked about that. The whole group is looking for somebody else. And with the patent cliff coming, there's a whole host of other buyers potentially.

39:50This stock, although it's rallied already, could go for a premium of 40 to 70 to 100 percent more than it is. They're looking for assets just like this. Even after the run that it's had, it's a$5 billion market cap,$5,$6 billion market cap. It could be taken out without the acquirer burping.

40:08Tim Seymour:It's up 5 percent right now in the after-hour session. Burping. Burping. A burping hire? You know, we've been talking about structure forever. We've been talking to Ray for a long time. And Ray can go it alone for a while, but this is just a matter of time before they get acquired. How's the chart look?

40:23Guy Adami:It's fantastic.

40:24Tim Seymour:Oh, fantastic. Wow. Not a pair of twos, not even a pair of jacks.

40:28Karen Finerman:And what a quick study, Mel. I tried.

40:32Tim Seymour:Coming up, we've got two more trader acronyms coming your way tonight. Will Carter redeem himself after an unfortunate short bet last year? And why is Grasso so puzzled this year? They'll spell out their top names in two.

40:50Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. It is day four of our 2026 trader acronym reveals. Steve Grasso and the chart master Carter Worth have been hard at work on their picks. But first, a look back. Steve's 2025 acronym was BOXER. With Bitcoin, Okta, U.S. Steel, which was bought by Japan's Nippon, Ethereum and Reddit, he finished fifth, up nearly 19%. 15%. Steve went crypto heavy last year. So that strategy again this year? So I'm going partial crypto heavy. It's Enigma. Do we have that graphic on that? So I'm sticking with Ethereum. So Ethereum was up 54 % before it finished the year down 10%. So that would have been a win.

41:28October really crushed me on that. And then I'm going with Navitus Semiconductor. So they were in the charging for mobile phones. Now they're pushing into AI data centers, higher margin business, but they're not profitable. So this could be one that really turns out as an outsized gainer. So that's the theme of this. I'm looking for real moonshots on these. IonQ, another one, which is a quantum play. They're unprofitable now. So is the rest of the field in quantum. When they turn profitable, I think there's no looking back. Gen Digital. I did not know that they own Norton antivirus. They own LifeLock.

42:12They own Avast. So there's cybersecurity. There's an angle with the government policies or government contracts. But there's also really just mom and pops that are buying this. I have LifeLock. The residual or the re-up rate is 85%. And then Max Linear, which is the base stations for 5G. 5G is expanding. They make the chips for 5G and Wi-Fi. Allegro, which is Allegro Microsystems, they are your car systems, so your chips and your sensors. They predominantly work with EVs, but they can work with ICE cars as well. High margin business, soon to be profitable on all of them. Allegro is actually profitable now.

42:53I feel good about this acronym.

42:56Tim Seymour:Okay. Well, next up. Enigma. Chart master, Carter Worth. Carter took a unique strategy going short the names in PLOP, but the markets rally with particular strength in Palantir meant he ended deep in the red. So what are you doing this year, Carter? What's your strategy?

43:12Guy Adami:Yeah, so my acronym is, well, let's see. I turned 60 this year, so I picked AARP. No way. Now, they start sending you the mail when you're like 50 or even 48. So we get it. But actually, in any event, here are the tickers. It's A for Affirm. That's a financial services, a sort of online digital affair. It's A for Amazon. And then, of course, the R is a biotech name. It's Rhythm. And then the P is a big staple, Procter & Gamble. So AARP.

43:45Tim Seymour:So do the charts individually look good for these stocks? Well, that's the thought. You did the backwards. No, no, no. I don't do it. No, no.

43:53Guy Adami:These are all picked from bigger baskets, even last year. The idea is always that you have longs and shorts. Shorts are supposed to underperform the market, even if they go up, and then longs outperform. These are just from broader baskets. But you do have to find an acronym. This is not really an acronym. It's an acronym of an acronym. Exactly. I know. This is all so non-polling. I'm glad you said it. I mean, I would thank you.

44:12Tim Seymour:I mean, rule number one is that it is a real word. Rule number two. Rule number one. Rule number one. Rule number one. ARP is not a real word. It's an acronym of an acronym. It's done. Wait a second. It's done. I know. How many have been released? Like six? How many? A lot. Carter didn't play by the rules. Karen never plays by the rules. Julie was marginal. And Julie, what was that? DeLulu. It's not a real rule. It's ridiculous.

44:36Karen Finerman:It's Zuzu.

44:37Tim Seymour:Anyway, Kami, I'm charting the yen. Japan's currency trading near 18-month lows. What's behind that move? What are the implications for barter markets? More fast money in two.

44:54Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. The Japanese yen trading near 18-month lows against the dollar as traders watch for potential intervention by the Bank of Japan. We asked the chart master, Carter Worth, to chart the yen's next move. Let me see for it.

45:06Guy Adami:Well, so in this case, it's higher in the chart, which is lower. But let's get right to it. I've got five charts, different time frames of the Japanese yen. The first is a five-year chart, and that standoff has been resolved up, which is weakness. Next one is a 30-year chart. And again, this is just now starting to move above former highs from a long time ago. Let's keep going, pulling it back even further. And here, this is going back some 50, 60 years. It has all the elements of an important bottom, or again, a further weakness implied. It has been much weaker in the past. Next iteration, just another way to draw the lines.

45:46Guy Adami:And final iteration, same thing yet again. To my eye, going up. which is weakening.

45:53Tim Seymour:Tim, what do you think? I mean, the prime minister, there's reports that she's going to call for a snap election.

45:57Karen Finerman:Because she's got a chance to cement her position. She's talking about deficit spending. This is, as someone who's very long Japanese equities, this is very equity friendly. I know it sounds scary, but, you know, a weaker currency, first of all, is fantastic for Japanese exporters. But the idea, and you see bond yields go higher because there's a bigger credit problem and the currency goes lower, one leads the other. But in between our equities, which, by the way, Japanese companies have never given more money back in buybacks. Their earnings growth is fantastic. Takeichi has a mandate. There's going to be a fiscal stimulus coming.

46:29Karen Finerman:Stay long, Japan.

46:31Tim Seymour:Up next, final trades.

46:42Tim Seymour:Final trade time, Timbo.

46:44Karen Finerman:Are we still – we have acronyms next week, too? Where are we on this? Still some. There's still some left. This is ratings. I think there's still some. Ratings gold. Speaking of ratings, Netflix has earnings next week. I think the expectations are way too low.

46:57Guy Adami:CBW. Affirm, a$20 billion financial services company. Get it higher. The A in your art. That's right.

47:04Tim Seymour:Steven. Navitus, semiconductor, the NMI enigma. Guy. We were listening to a little Skinnered in the break, Mel, and Mel was commenting just the genius. We love Skinnered. Of what was Leonard Skinner. Billy Powell. She hearts Leonard Skinner. Let her see. All right. Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5 for more Fast. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

47:47or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. Trimphia offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start. Tremphaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks.

48:26If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Tremphaya, proper training is required. Tremphaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them, and liver problems may occur. Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms, or need a vaccine. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphia today. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphiaRadio.com.

From the publisher

Goldman Sachs surging to fresh records as earnings top estimates, while some Mag7 stocks continue to struggle against the broader market. So will the big bank keep bumping, or can the big tech trouble make a turnaround? Plus the weight loss drug wars are heating up, with focus turning to the GLP-1 pill. The latest data from one pharma company, and what the CEO sees in store for the company as competition continues to climb.

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