In short
Fast Money (5/19/26) centers on rising bond yields, upcoming NVIDIA earnings, and signals from housing and tech.
Topic
Government borrowing costs surge (10-year near 4.7%; 30-year highest since 2007), a global move also seen in Japan and the U.K. Panelists argue the key risk is the speed/trajectory of yields, which can pressure AI infrastructure spending (asset-heavy, power/energy/water bottlenecks) and reduce the cushion from declining buybacks. They cite a Wall Street Journal point: MAG-7 buybacks down sharply (Q1 ~$17B; 55% below prior quarter; 71% YoY). They also discuss commodities/EM: higher inflation and commodities (aluminum/copper) could benefit Latin America; DRAM is treated as a “commodity” tied to AI CapEx.
Guests
Stu Kaiser (Citi head of equity trading strategy); Alistair Pinder (HSBC, EM focus); Robin Shaw (TimeCare CEO); Julia Borst (TimeCare); plus CNBC’s Mackenzie Sigalos (Google I/O market alert) and Diana Olick (Toll Brothers earnings).
Notable examples/claims
Japan “powder keg” inflation; 30-year tail risk above 6.6% (BofA survey); gold could snap higher if central-bank selling is overstated; Toll Brothers margins 26.2% vs 25.3 and guidance raised; TimeCare claims >5% medical expense reduction and uses AI-powered oncology care navigation for 120,000 patients.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Update: Bond Yields and Stock Rally
1:45 to 3:09
Discuss the impact of rising bond yields on the stock market.
“In for Melissa Lee and coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ.”
Analyzing Global Bond Market Trends
3:09 to 4:30
Explore the significance of rising global bond yields and their implications.
“And why our audience, your audience that you love dearly, cares.”
The Effect of Higher Yields on Equities
4:30 to 6:00
Evaluate the relationship between rising yields and equity market performance.
“I mean, you can make an argument that we're turning Japanese.”
Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth
6:00 to 7:20
Discuss how rising yields are affecting infrastructure investments and growth.
“Yeah, to me, when you look at this rise in yields, I mean, I go to the things that's drivers of the equity market, right?”
Impacts of AI on Buybacks and Spending
7:20 to 8:50
Analyze how AI influences corporate buybacks and spending strategies.
“if we do get to levels that folks are not expecting to.”
Emerging Markets and Inflation Trends
8:50 to 12:00
Explore the effects of inflation on emerging markets and investment strategies.
“to be bullish in the bond market, I said it last night, I'll say it again.”
Emerging Markets and Inflation Impact
14:00 to 15:54
Explore the dynamics of emerging markets in the context of rising inflation and bond yields.
“And historically for EM, they were the death melt.”
Gold's Market Reactions
15:54 to 17:24
Discuss the relationship between interest rates and gold prices within a volatile market.
“MAG-7 had choked the oxygen out of the room.”
Central Banks and Gold Trends
17:24 to 18:30
Examine the actions of central banks regarding gold and the implications for investors.
“I think if it gets there and holds, get out of the way, because then gold's going a lot higher.”
Google's AI Innovations at I.O.
18:30 to 19:38
Get insights into Google's announcements and strategies at their flagship AI event.
“Anyway, if they're selling, why would gold go up?”
Show all 22 chapters
Market Reactions to Google's Performance
19:38 to 24:10
Analyze the market's response to Google's recent stock performance and AI developments.
“Introducing the Total Solutions Advantage only from Comcast Business.”
Toll Brothers Earnings Report
27:39 to 28:00
Review Toll Brothers' latest earnings and implications for the housing market.
“My community gives me the confidence to ask myself, what would you like the power to do?”
Toll Brothers Earnings Report
28:20 to 29:50
Discussion on Toll Brothers' strong earnings and market position.
“Shares of Toll Brothers, the high-end home builder, they're higher right now.”
Market Analysis and Home Depot
29:50 to 30:28
Analysis of Home Depot's earnings and its implications for the housing market.
“Guy Adami, do you find it shocking that Toll Brothers did not reference mortgage rates?”
NVIDIA Earnings Anticipation
30:28 to 33:06
Discussion on upcoming NVIDIA earnings report and its market significance.
“Brother, do you mind if I talk about Home Depot for a second?”
NVIDIA's Market Challenges and Expectations
33:06 to 38:48
Exploration of NVIDIA's challenges and high expectations before earnings release.
“Stocks falling as long-term interest rates we led the show with hit nearly 20-year highs.”
Interview with TimeCare CEO
38:48 to 42:04
CEO of TimeCare discusses their innovative oncology platform and business model.
“I'm making all this up because I assume those will be the topics.”
Interview with Time Care CEO Robin Shaw
42:04 to 43:16
Gain insights into Time Care's growth and patient support strategies.
“You have about 85 ,000 patients right now.”
Transition to Breaking News
43:16 to 43:28
The show transitions to breaking news from Washington.
Senate Votes on War Powers Act
43:28 to 44:42
Learn about the Senate's actions regarding military action in Iran.
“Got some breaking news out of Washington.”
Market Update on Bank Stocks
44:42 to 45:28
Discussion on the performance of major bank stocks and economic indicators.
“The State Street Bank ETF, KBE, has been testing a key support level over the last week, finishing the day just above its 50-day moving average.”
Final Trade Insights
45:28 to 47:52
Market experts share their final trades and perspectives on investments.
“No, the music's playing when we come back.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Melissa Lee:Say you always wanted to have a backyard oasis. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the most out of your money so you can go out and live a little. Isn't that why we work so hard? To have some fun with our money? Like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one. So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 19 million customers today at Empower.com. Not an Empower client paid or sponsored. Never bet against American grit or American energy.
0:35Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's venture global. That's unstoppable energy.
1:01Live from the NASDAQ market site right here in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is Fast Money on tap. Borrowing costs blowing up. The 30-year bond hitting levels last seen during the financial crisis is that what could ultimately break what has been an amazing stock rally. Plus, we're all getting ready for NVIDIA. Those numbers out in less than 24 hours. Bank stocks, supporting with what some call key support. And Home Depot, giving a read on you, the American consumer and housing. Plus, let's disrupt it. CEO of number 18 on our exclusive CNBC Disruptor 50 list. And now his company is shaking up the experience and outcomes.
1:41People living with cancer. Hi, everybody. I am Brian Sullivan. In for Melissa Lee and coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On your desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Stu Kaiser. He is head of equity trading strategy at Citi. Stu, welcome. Good to see you again. All right. Stock markets ended the day down, but we're going to start tonight's show with a different market, the bond market, because that is the big news today. Government borrowing costs, they just keep going up. Ten-year yields closing in on 4.7%. But the 30-year Treasury is now yielding more than at any time since 2007, nearly 20 years ago in the subprime crisis.
2:26But let's be clear, this move in bonds, not just an American issue. You want an example? How about two? Japanese government bonds, they're yielding their highest rate in nearly 30 years. And U.K. yields also higher as well. This is truly a global story. Now, back to stocks. Stocks did try to make a comeback today. The Dow briefly positive around 230 this afternoon, or the Nasdaq was. But then fatigue and the sellers rolled in. The S &P and Dow did end down, in fact, near their lows of the session. But context is always is key. The Nasdaq is still up nearly 4 % this month. All right, Guy Dami, it's a big night.
3:09Talk to us about this move in yields. How significant is it? And why our audience, your audience that you love dearly, cares. First of all, welcome, Brian.
3:20Melissa Lee:It's a big night because you're here. It's a big night because Brian Sullivan is here. I doubled the poundage. By the way, look at this team. I think we would take the halftime report panel with Sully. How many points would we give him? In what? In basketball. How many points? Honestly, respectfully, the halftime, we'd take him in everything. We'd have to give him like 15? We'd have to spot him on everything. I just want to say, because this is not for nothing. That was before Brian got here. This is a squad. Why do we care about the bond? You know, Jerome Powell, you're familiar with Jerome Powell?
3:50Some people call him Jay.
3:52Melissa Lee:And years ago, when asked about valuations of the equity market, he said in a zero interest rate environment, valuations don't matter, which I was appalled by. But it turned out he was right. And maybe it was true. Well, guess what? They matter now. And for a while, we've been saying collectively that rates here, regardless of what the Fed is going to do, matter. And as interest rates go higher, to your point, borrowing costs go higher and valuations actually begin to matter. And for whatever reason, the last couple of days, the market, the equity market, has woken up to the fact that the bond market here is deteriorating, as you mentioned, global bond rates.
4:26Melissa Lee:And by the way, Japan is just a powder keg waiting to happen.
4:30Karen Finerman:I mean, you can make an argument that we're turning Japanese. That's right. I mean, the vapors. Yeah. Anyway, but I will weave as much music, folks, into this show as we can. I really think so. I think it's a case where, as we've said on the show many times, the Fed can control the short end. They can't control the long end in Japan. What's happening, I was I was on the air earlier today and I said something with Kelly where I feel like it's 2021 in Japan right now. I think they're having their moment where inflation is so far out of control and they're going to have to make a drastic policy move.
4:59Karen Finerman:Now, I think that's coming at a time when you have leadership and you have a prime minister in Japan that's actually looking to increase deficit spending and do stuff that may be fantastic for equities. But ultimately, a higher dollar and higher global yields are not going to be great for equities. And what's interesting, too, is if you look at that Bank of America fund manager survey, which is often excellent at reading at least where positioning is, it's not going to tell you about tomorrow. But it does tell you that most fund managers out there think that there's a 4 percent chance that we're actually going to necessarily have a hard landing.
5:34Karen Finerman:But they think there's a 40 percent chance that the biggest tail risk is a second wave of inflation and that the 10 year, excuse me, the 30 year gets above six, six percent, which it hasn't done since all the way back to the Asian financial crisis. So I just as we say, there's there's a disconnect here. Equities aren't necessarily listening to the bond market. They don't have to listen to 465 or 470, but it's the trend. It's the velocity of the move, and it's the breakout that has to feel different.
6:00Melissa Lee:Yeah, to me, when you look at this rise in yields, I mean, I go to the things that's drivers of the equity market, right? And we know what that is. It's the AI infrastructure build. And we know what the contribution is to the performance of the S &P 500, but also to the earnings contribution, but also the earnings growth. And what is interesting to me now is that all of these asset-like businesses historically are really asset heavy. All of these companies that have been using their cash flow and their balance sheets to finance that first trillion dollars, which we got probably from 23 into 25, are now looking for other creative ways to finance the continued build, another trillion dollars over the next, call it, 12 to 18 months or something like that.
6:38Melissa Lee:So now higher yields actually puts a lot of stress on that, right? It puts stress on those sorts of investments. And if we do have some sort of pullback in economic growth, well, then you're likely to see a pullback in the sort of infrastructure spend. So there's a lot of henwinds to me. And it's also assuming that you're going to have all of this demand in the near term for this compute. And so that's how I put it together. I think if we start to see a 10-year at 5%, the borrowing costs going up considerably to build out these projects that are not going to actually be operational for three, maybe four years.
7:13Melissa Lee:And there are other bottlenecks as it relates to energy and the likes here. So to me, I think there's a lot of things that actually have the potential to kind of go haywire if we do get to levels that folks are not expecting to. So what are those levels? I don't know. I'm like the dumb infrastructure guy. You know what I mean? Well, you're not because a lot of that's borrowed money. So your point is well taken. But my point, Stu, is this, is that, yes, I understand today there was a little bit of wobble. But let's be clear, NASDAQ was briefly positive. The NASDAQ is up 5 % this month. It's up 16 % this year.
7:48Yields have been rising all year, and the stock market has gone up even as yields have gone up. Well, I think if you look back at the last couple weeks, you have multiple weeks you had oil up, yields up, equities up. But what was happening during that two weeks, we were printing one of the better earning quarters we've seen in a while. We're now past earnings. We've lost that umbrella. And you have risks kind of reigning from both oil and race. And I think that's why you're seeing equities respond to it more. So it's a rich uncle walked away and now we're kind of exposed a little bit, you think?
8:15Yeah, I do think that's part of it. For what, another three months until the next round of earnings? Well, we do have a couple of key ones coming up. But yes, I mean, it isn't, I don't want to say an issue, but it helps you be more insulated from those external shocks when internally you're generating a significant amount of EPS growth.
8:31Melissa Lee:Listen, I think the concern, people say energy was the catalyst to this, and maybe there's some truth, the oil price. But this was happening long before, in my opinion, was a slow motion thing that's maybe just sped up a little bit. The bond market will continue to deteriorate, in my opinion. And I will say this. Fed, as Tim said, does not control anything. As a matter of fact, if you want to be bullish in the bond market, I said it last night, I'll say it again. The best thing they can do at this point is hike rates, not cut rates. But I think to Dan's point, I don't know what the level is, but we're getting precariously close.
9:01Melissa Lee:And at Tim's point, it's the speed with which we're getting there.
9:04Karen Finerman:I think you have a case, though, where the move in the bond market, much like when we talk about equities, I mean, I think we've had an extraordinary move in a week. OK. And what I heard was at least some of the fund flow today or the flows in what was going on in the markets, there was some block sales of tertiary futures, five years, 10 years, things that really pushed the market around and kind of show some capitulation. So, I mean, at some point, this isn't a one way trade higher. And I don't think the fundamentals warrant it. I mean, again, at least what we've been evaluating in slow motion.
9:34Karen Finerman:And yes, it's been obvious there's there are deficits. There are refunding issues. There are global rates. They're pulling everything higher. And last week was the week of all weeks for PPI, for hot PPI. Not everywhere. So but let's let's get a breath here. I mean, I don't think we're going to five percent on the 10 year overnight. I think there's going to be a win there. I think is it. Could we touch it? I don't know. Yeah, maybe. But, I mean, I'm just saying there's going to be a real struggle between 465 and 5 % on the 10-year.
10:04Melissa Lee:I don't think – we're not going straight there. Yeah, well, we're going up 10 basis points a week. I mean, we could be there in a month or something like that. We have in the last two. Yeah. Well, one thing – it was an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal this morning. It's talking about buybacks, right? So we just kind of talked about the infrastructure build and how that's kind of putting strain on free cash flow that a lot of these MAG-7 companies have been using to buy back their stock. And they've been doing it aggressively for years and years. You know, if you look at Q1, I think the number was 17 billion from, at least this is from the article, from the MAG-7.
10:29Melissa Lee:That's now 55 % below the prior quarter, and it's down 71 % from last year. Just think about that. So you could say, well, if, you know, Apple is buying back, you know,$50 billion worth of stock on a$5 trillion market cap, it doesn't really mean a whole heck of a lot. But that is a cushion that's driven a lot of the market performance over the last, call it 10 years, and a lot of these big names because they hadn't been investing hundreds of billions of dollars in data centers. They've been buying back their stock hand over fist. Look, to your point, I think people are reevaluating a little bit what the impact of AI is going to be here on buybacks.
11:02In what way? Well, look, it was, I think, considered a very deflationary impulse because I'm going to increase efficiency, I'm going to reduce labor costs, et cetera. But what we've seen now is the tokens have gotten so expensive that the cost savings from laying off a person aren't as attractive as they were. And secondly, it creates massive demand for real assets. And that real asset demand is sort of translating through to higher inflation expectations. I'm not saying we're going there full stop, but you're starting to, like, balance the scales a little bit in investors' minds. So quickly, Sue, and everybody jump in here.
11:33It's a fascinating question because you've got$700 to$800 billion in capital spending per year planned, OK, whatever the estimate is. Everyone's got their own numbers. That's one and a half times the GDP of Singapore. I mean, this is the biggest number we have seen in 25 years since the Internet was literally built out. Will that power the market higher or will the inflation caused by that ultimately send rates up and markets down? To me, that's the only question. I think it continues to power the markets higher. But I think the fact that this was 100 percent positive is sort of being re-evaluated to some extent.
12:08And if you look at this, this is a global phenomenon. I mean, our commodity strategists are max bullish aluminum, for instance. Well, aluminum is an input to a lot of stuff. I saw that. They say 4 ,000 a ton with a bull case to 5540. Yes, I read the research. There's a new guy on the desk. Let's bring in another voice in this conversation, Alistair Pinder of HSBC. Alistair, thank you very much for joining us. You tend to focus more on the emerging markets. I've got to imagine that the inflation story that we just talked about, which, as we said, was global, not just domestic. What's that going to do to the markets that you talk about every day?
12:40Well, I think, you know, Stu was talking about the commodity aspect here. I mean, for me, you know, the higher inflation, the higher oil prices, the higher commodity prices, that's massively bullish for Latin America. It's one of the reasons why we've been overweight. Brazil, you know, playing that aluminum trend, playing the copper trend as well in places like Chile. And I think the one thing that we don't talk enough about EM and when it comes into, you know, AI and tech, which is that DRAM and semiconductors are also a commodity. Right. And they are the players that are benefiting the most.
13:08You're talking about that$900 billion of CapEx, which is creating that inflationary environment. I mean, with DRAM prices up, what, 10 times over the last few months, and 20 percent of that$900 billion CapEx number going straight into memory. To me, it is that Asia tech space, which is the best way to play the AI theme at this point. Well, EWZ, which is the Brazil ETF, that was red hot, went from 22 to 40. It's backed off a little bit. It's down a couple of bucks. From that, do you remain bullish on Brazil? I think we remain bullish on Brazil. I think within Brazil, you're going to be a bit selective where you're going to be.
13:39You're talking about the inflation impulse here. One of the issues for Brazil is that it basically has reduced the likelihood of rate cuts. But in the commodity space, in the energy and the material space in Brazil, that to me feels like a very attractive place to be right now.
13:54Karen Finerman:Alistair, as a kindred EM spirit here, we also see inflation and we see higher interest rates. And historically for EM, they were the death melt. Now, EM's at all-time highs, and because the weightings, especially attached to memory and Taiwan Semi alone, these are the greatest trades that we've had anywhere. But are you worried about this? Because, again, 25 basis points in the 10-year from last week to this week has meant underperformance of 3.5 % of the EEM or pick your emerging markets index. So I think you just have to be selective within emerging markets. I think the issue that we have inflation is that there's some countries in emerging markets that are really punished by this.
14:34ASEAN is a clear one where they are the big importers of the oil, where the consumer, you know, 40 to 50 percent of that consumption is things like food, oil. They get squeezed. India is another area that gets squeezed by this inflation shock. And they're also getting hit by the fears that that economy gets disrupted, not benefited from AI here. The one thing that I would say, though, you know, comparing emerging markets, developed markets in this context of higher inflation, higher bond deals. You know, in developed markets, you take the U.K. and its budget deficits and its current account deficit.
15:05It's worse than most emerging markets at this point. So actually, we come into this situation where the fiscal and the current account situation for EM is much stronger than other developed markets. And I think that is what is new for EM compared to, you know, previous. Does that just benefit those markets because the capital that would go to maybe some of those markets, the U.K. or Germany, whatever, is now going to filter out to Brazil and other markets like that? I mean, that's what we've seen so far is that money still continues to rotate into select emerging markets. Rotate from what into what?
15:35Well, I think it's out of areas like Europe, which, again, is a oil importer, a gas importer and going into the areas which are less impacted by that. So I do think you start to see a global rotation, maybe not out of the U.S., but out of other international markets into EM right now. Alistair, really appreciate you coming on. Fascinating stuff. I mean, Tim, going back to you, the kindred spirit of emerging, as we say, break out the incense, which is this idea, this battle, which kind of got to us too here, which is this idea that inflation is going to hurt those markets more, but at the same time, it may benefit them because people are going to pull their money out of developed markets.
16:10Karen Finerman:Well, we were seeing that pre-war. OK, there was a reallocation trade. MAG-7 had choked the oxygen out of the room. And by the way, it's foreign investors getting back to equal or overweight their own markets. It's less about U.S. investors who, by the way, look yourself in the mirror at home and look at your portfolio. And I bet you're underweight international. And I bet you have been for a long time. And by the way, that's probably worked. I think Alistair's key points are that the fundamentals, it's less about fund flows, that the macro and EM in a lot of these places has never been better, at least relative to the developed world.
16:41Karen Finerman:And so when you get the fundamental story, when the fact is the same thematic secular trades that have been heroic in the United States that also exist in emerging markets, we're also talking about power utilities. We're talking about money center banks. I mean, these are some of the names that we are along. I run an international ETF. I'm biased on this. But I mean, I think things look very good, not just because it was a trade, but because the macro warrants it.
17:04Melissa Lee:Just to segue real quick, because he brought up commodities. I mean, gold to me, it's something going on here. Higher rates are not bullish for gold. And I think there's some liquidation going on in the back of risk off. But I will tell you, if what is happening, what we've all been talking about in terms of debt and global yields, if it continues to sort of manifest itself, the snapback to the upside in gold is going to be violent. And I think we're close. We traded almost down to the 200-day moving average. I think if it gets there and holds, get out of the way, because then gold's going a lot higher.
17:29Higher, even though central banks have reportedly been selling. But you know what? There's no selling.
17:34Melissa Lee:We've heard that. We've heard, obviously, out of the Middle East when the war started. I have no verification of that. Why would they reverse that trade? So we'll see.
17:40Karen Finerman:Why would you reverse that trade here? Why wouldn't you be buying weakness? I mean, I think the same reasons you were buying gold when you had some of the dynamics that were great tailwinds for gold are even more in play now. You've got fiat currencies that look like, I don't know, you're looking at me like I'm, Brian, I'm sorry. Anyway, the point is, I think strong dollar, fear of inflation, these aren't good for gold in the short run. But if you're telling me that central banks are going to start selling gold because there's inflation out there, they're the ones that are driving this train. I guess the reason I was looking at you.
Read the full transcript
18:13Karen Finerman:You were looking at me funny. Well, I was. I was debating whether to call you pal or buddy. Because you were asking me the questions. You're asking me the questions, pal? You know what I mean? Look, we could. Chief, if you want to do this, we can do this. I mean, I could call you champ. I could call you governor. We could do this all day long. I could call you ambassador. This is why Melissa takes a day off every once in a while. Anyway, if they're selling, why would gold go up? I guess that's my very average question to you, Guy, Donnie.
18:43Melissa Lee:Listen, you're assuming that they are. I don't know that that's happening. To Tim's point, listen, the Chinese have been buying gold hand over fist for the last four years. 25 years. Yeah. Have they stopped? Maybe. Maybe they slowed down. It's not going to stop because what I have said, and I think Tim would agree, Tim is sitting right there, that central banks are now hedging their own ineptitude, and they're seeing it play out in real time in terms of what's going on with rates globally. You know what I think?
19:04Karen Finerman:I think Alistair is a cool name. I think.
19:07Melissa Lee:Yeah, that's a badass name. Yeah, I feel like. What would you call him if like as a nickname? Can I call you guys GTD? Just Guy Tim Dan? I don't know. That's kind of a cool. It sounds like a car. I might take that on as a name. I might take it on. All right, coming up. Google's flagship AI show kicking off today. Hey, does it have the answer for Anthropic or has it already won the AI battle? Plus, Toll Brothers earnings, they're out. We're going to dive into the moves and what they are telling you about the housing market. Don't you go anywhere, pal. Fast money is back in two.
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20:14Taxes and fees extra. Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.
20:45I'm honored to make history and to make my community proud. Oh, what a brilliant tackle from Naomi Kerma. What would you like the power to do? Bank of America, proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer. Bank of America and A member FDSE. Back to Fast Money, Google I.O. kicking off today. That is considered Google's most consequential AI event of the year. We just don't hear about the inconsequential ones. Shares of parent company Alphabet hitting an intraday record yesterday, down a little bit with the market today. Mackenzie Sigalos has a market alert from the event in Mountain View, California.
21:23Mack, what's going on? So, Brian, Google came into I.O. with the total backing of Wall Street. But the product story that it told on stage today was more about practical use cases for the consumer, which was not what investors wanted to hear. The headline was Gemini 3.5 Flash, a faster and cheaper version of its flagship model. Google says that it gives users frontier-level capabilities at a fraction of the cost. That's now going to be the default inside of the Gemini app and AI mode, something that search chief Liz Reed told me that she's very bullish on. But investors came in looking for a more obvious generational leap, something closer to Gemini 4 that would put it ahead of Anthropic on the leaderboard.
22:04And instead, it got a message around cost, speed and distribution. But walking around the demo stations here shows that this lighter model does enable some pretty compelling agentic features. There is a new personal AI agent inside of Gemini. Meanwhile, Search and Chrome are being totally redesigned around AI. And perhaps the biggest talker today, a first look at Gemini-powered smart glasses, a category which has become a surprise hit for Meta with its Ray-Bans. Brian? Yeah, I mean, was there like one sort of super hot take today? I saw the great interview. We had it on Power Lunch as well. But like, what was like the McKenzie-Sagallo's hot take of the day?
22:45wearables are where it's at in terms of their next stage of the generative AI well I know I think that I think that everybody wants to win wearables and meta has seen this unprecedented success in the last two and a half years and they now have this heads up display and the right lens of your glasses and Google wants in and Apple and open AI reportedly do too because it is not decided at this point who's going to be the ideal or what's going to offer the idea ideal physical hardware to be that ideal interface for the generative AI era. And so you have Johnny Ive, a former Apple alum over at OpenAI, reportedly working on this family of devices that combines glasses and a necklace pendant and headphones, because we just don't know the best way to optimize on that.
23:28And to kind of thread the needle here, Brian, what Google has is Maps. It has Gmail. It has all of your data for decades. And if you can integrate that experience into glasses, it could be pretty huge. Could be. We'll see if it's a little better than the Google glasses. Mackenzie Sagalos, thank you very much. I mean, let's go back to the stock. Dan, this was a$92 stock two years ago. It's now$315.
23:51Melissa Lee:Well, forget that. I mean, six weeks ago, it was trading at$275, and here it is at$387. It's gained a trillion and a half dollars in market cap. So that move, I think while a lot of investors are excited about the vertical integration, the distribution that they have, the progress of the models that they've made. You know, really the uptake of TPUs and their ability to kind of rent out compute today. They announced a deal with Blackstone where they're building a new company. It's basically a neocloud, right? So they had so many things going on right here. So the undisputed winner at the moment.
24:23Melissa Lee:Now, we don't have a great look through on what's going on at OpenAI and Anthropic to some degree that we do. And I think they benefited from the fact that it's probably the best story as Microsoft has actually kind of laid down a little bit over the last six to nine months or so. So to me, expectations were really high. I think what I saw from there and what I read there is that it's all good, man. And they have this great distribution and they have models that are clearly as good as the others. But I'll go back to how they're monetizing it. Open AI would love to be able to monetize through selling ads for consumers because people are not going to be paying subscriptions.
24:58Melissa Lee:Google has that ability. The winner, Dan, is Google the winner. They are right now. And again, I mean, I think that OpenAI is probably going to be like a third at some point in the next year or so. Look, I think the challenge you mentioned is just very, very high bar. I mean, this is a consensus long. They had the best model coming in. Everybody knows the TPU story. Look, the best thing they have to talk about is new glasses, which is sort of an old theme. It just suggests that, you know, they're a little bit later in this sort of bullish cycle, I think, you know, Google is. And it's a big challenge.
25:27And this is fair, Stu. I mean, to Dan's point, they added two Walmarts in value in a couple of months. Yeah, but it's a lot even for Alphabet. I agree. But you think of like even going into the video print. I mean, there's there's so many headlines out there, so many GTC, so many earnings. It's a consensus bullish position that it's just very hard to kind of surprise to the upside. And I think Google is sort of suffering from their own success to some degree the same way. Well, the stock and investors certainly have not been suffering from 92 to 387, from 275 to 387. in a couple of months. All right.
25:58Big interview tomorrow morning. 8 o 'clock Eastern time. Jeff Bezos live. That is going to be a big one. That's actually from his Blue Origin rocket factory. Come on. Yeah. What do you mean, come on? No, that's incredible. Look at Bezos. He's totally changed in the last couple of years. He's all swore. And swore jacked. He also changed his wife.
26:18Melissa Lee:That's a fair point. She did. 8 a.m. Eastern time tomorrow right here on CNBC. Jeff Bezos, Blue Origin. There's a lot more Fast Money to come. And up next, we're tracking the After Hours moving Toll Brothers on its latest earnings report. You're watching Fast Money Live from the NASDAQ. We're back, we hope, right after this.
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27:49My community gives me the confidence to ask myself, what would you like the power to do? So every time I'm on the pitch, I play for more than myself. Oh, what a tackle from Naomi Gurma.
28:03Melissa Lee:Absolutely brilliant. Bank of America champions U.S. Women's National Team member Naomi Gurma and everyone who dares to ask, what would you like the power to do? Bank of America, proud to be the official bank of U.S. soccer. Bank of America and a member FDSE. All right, welcome back. Shares of Toll Brothers, the high-end home builder, they're higher right now. After posting better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the latest quarter, more importantly, Toll Brothers lifting its guidance. Diana Olick joining us. Diana, what's going on? Well, Brian, it was a very strong beat across the board for the luxury home builder.
28:38That led CEO Carl Mistry to say in the release, based on our year-to-date performance, we are raising our full year guidance across all key home building metrics. Now, I want to highlight margins specifically because Toll stands out here. They reported adjusted home sales gross margin of 26.2 percent. That was versus estimates of 25.3. Toll does not have the margin pressure that the other builders do because they don't rely as much on incentives for buyers, the high-end buyers. They also don't worry as much about mortgage rates and buying down rates since their buyers have much more cushion and many don't even use mortgages anyway.
29:12There's actually no mention at all in today's release about mortgage rates, although they will likely field questions on that on tomorrow's analyst call. You remember, of course, rates spiked higher in March at the start of the Iran war. Now, tolls average home price rose to one million nine thousand dollars. That's from nine hundred seventy seven thousand dollars in Q1. Orders were up 7 % in units and 8 % in dollars year over year. So, again, it's that luxury end of the market, Brian, that's really doing well. We saw it in the Realtors Report. That's where you're seeing sales higher, not so much in the rest of the world.
29:43No mention of mortgage rates. Nothing. Not one word. I was looking for the quote to put in there. Nothing. Nothing. Wow. I kind of find that shocking. Diane Olin. Well, thank you. Guy Adami, do you find it shocking that Toll Brothers did not reference mortgage rates?
29:57Melissa Lee:Diana just broke it down extraordinarily well. Higher end consumer. I'm sure a lot of these deals, as crazy as it might sound, are all cash deals. Now, again, north of a million dollars. Their margins are hanging around. So good for Toll Brothers. But I don't think if you'd say that's good for all the homebuilders, I think you're making a big mistake. And I get the bounce in Toll Brothers. But in a world where the consumer is worried about his or her job for, I think, a lot of different reasons, not least of which AI, in a world where rates are going higher, where the consumer is probably strapped, I don't think you can be long homebuilders here, in my opinion.
30:29Karen Finerman:Brother, do you mind if I talk about Home Depot for a second? Just want to get earnings out. Yeah, they had Home Depot. And while we're talking about housing, I just, you know, I think it's important to note that Home Depot came in with the same store sales number that actually missed consensus a little bit, but beat a bar that it needed to beat. And kind of de-risked what I think also is a read through into Walmart and Target and some other big box. But, I mean, I think those Home Depot numbers were interesting. And as someone that would like to be nibbling at Home Depot here, I think this was a print that gave you the confidence.
30:59Karen Finerman:By the way, the stock at one point traded down, you know, four or five percent and finished flat to up small in the day. So I said interesting. You said interesting. There's two ways to use that word. Interesting. All right. It's like, oh, that's interesting. Or how's dinner? It's interesting. Yeah, no, that was a half full. Interesting. OK, because the stock is the same price it was five years ago. We're not talking about five years ago. We're talking about the price action in Home Depot, which got to a point where it's actually gone from 400 down to 300. And it looks like it actually might be turning and interesting.
31:33Karen Finerman:Anyone can look at that chart going backwards, Chief. Whoa! 96 degrees outside. It's humid. The temperatures are hot. Temperatures are high. They're high inside. Everybody's fired up. I got to apologize for that. That was absolutely fine, buddy. And the commercial break is in this. You're asking a probing question, and there I was. I tried to probe. You got deprobed. Stu? Look, I think both those reports kind of hit on key themes, which is K-shaped economy, impact of interest rates, impact of higher oil and gas prices. Frankly, I think we really get the answer to this on Thursday morning when we get Walmart earnings, and they're going to talk about both the strength of the lower-end consumer and also potential trade down.
32:11Are we actually seeing incremental progress on high and middle income? So these are both, I think, good previews to that, but to me it's still— So how closely are you and your team watching Walmart? Very closely. I actually think it's more important than NVIDIA this week in terms of the signaling. Hold on, Brian. Don't say that. Hold on.
32:27Melissa Lee:Dan Nathan last night led the show with Walmart being more important than NVIDIA. So maybe you should watch our show more often. I was off yesterday. Excuse me? I was off.
32:36Karen Finerman:What do you mean off as in not working or actually just not on your game? I was a little off. It happens. Like your Razor took the day off. Your Razor took the day off. It's all good. Coming up, we are going to set the table for the biggest earnings from the most important company. Nothing is more important than NVIDIA earnings. I mean nothing except for Walmart, apparently. We're going to talk about what the traders are watching out of NVIDIA's report less than 24 hours from now. More Fast Money right after this. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast.
33:17We're back right after this.
33:24All right. Stocks falling as long-term interest rates we led the show with hit nearly 20-year highs. The Dow down about 300 points. The S &P and the Nasdaq did close out their third straight day of losses. That is actually the first time that's happened since March 30th. Meantime, stocks in the move include Cava. The restaurant chain jumping, had a top and bottom line beat, also raising its full year guidance. All right. So NVIDIA, we just talked about it, said to report their quarterly earnings in less than 24 hours. Company has beaten profit estimates at 18 of the past 20 quarters. That's almost all of them, Tim.
34:02And analysts are expecting revenues of 80 billion dollars or more. investors will be focused on the new Blackwell and Rubin production. That's their next generation of processor, as well as any guidance on where margins may be headed. Shares of NVIDIA hitting a record last Thursday. It's got a market cap of$5.7 trillion, though stock down about 7%. Stu, you said that you're watching Walmart maybe a little more than NVIDIA, but I got to imagine NVIDIA still a big deal on the Citi desk. Yeah, it's hugely important. Obviously, it's been a big market leader. It's underperformed a lot of its semiconductor peers, which I think kind of speaks to a little bit of the fatigue in the stock.
34:44You know, Dan Tushner, I think buybacks is going to be a huge part of this report as well. Folks are going to want to see what they're going to do in terms of returning that cash at a time when other MAG7 stocks are doing the opposite. So it's going to be important. But, you know, the implied move is about 6 percent. It really has not been realizing its moves the last few quarters. You know, people are long the stock, but I don't think they're over their skis long the same way they might have been two or three quarters ago. So an important print. But again, I think the bar is pretty high. We might be a little oversaturated on NVIDIA headlines and information lately.
35:13So at this point, I think they need to deliver on margins. They need to deliver on sales. But the incremental trade here might actually be the buybacks.
35:20Melissa Lee:Yeah. To your point about the implied move, it has not been matching that. And it's actually been trading lower on pretty decent quarters, good guides. I think expectations, if you're looking for 70 % earnings and sales growth year over year, that's what it's expected on like a$360 billion base. I mean, you're getting to a point where it's just going to be hard to really beat those sorts of expectations. And, you know, we've been waiting for a print where they actually guide down. And at some point, that's going to happen. And so the question is, it's such a crowded trade. I mean, does it absolutely get murdered and take the whole sector down?
35:53Melissa Lee:Who knows? Maybe that's just not it. But at some point, they're going to guide below high expectations of 73 % up year over year. Not to talk my own book, but, Guy, what's amazing about NVIDIA, when you look at the Rubin Blackwell chip and you look at the Rubin and then after that, I think it's called Feynman, the power demands, the cooling demands, the water demands are so high. There's so much exponentially higher than Blackwell. There is a part of me that kind of goes to the Dan Nathan camp a little bit, I think, which is where's the power going to come from? Will the power be there? Will the cooling be there?
36:24Will the water be there to meet the market's earnings demands?
36:29Melissa Lee:You reported on the deal yesterday, I'm sure. I mean, that's why names like Bloom Energy and all these other names. Caterpillar, to a certain extent, is exactly what you're talking about. They're a power gen business. So, yeah, with 100 percent without question, that should be concerning. The market has not cared. We'll see if it cares now. I'll say this. Revenues are coming around$80 billion, so probably guide to 90. to me, it comes down to margins, anything north of, excuse me, anything south of 75 % gross margins, then we can start having a different conversation. 75 % is your bogey.
36:58Karen Finerman:Something we haven't really talked about is also just the H200 China impact, what we've heard over the last week or so. I mean, it's significant. And I think there's been a massive headwind China-wise for NVIDIA, the stock. It's not stopping their business and demand. But again, we heard that their hyperscalers, ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, you name them, now have clearance. I think this is going to be a meaningful part of the commentary tomorrow. I don't have any problem with the valuation here. And I'll also say that, yeah, the stock's underperformed some heroic names out there. But I don't sense sentiment in NVIDIA is anywhere near where it has been.
37:35Karen Finerman:I don't think the bar is that high going into this print. The bar is obviously the one that's set by the real bottom-up stuff in terms of a margin profile. But I don't think the market needs something heroic tomorrow.
37:47Melissa Lee:Yeah, you know, one thing I'd say, you remember when Satya Nadella was on Brad Gerser's podcast, I think it was like late October, maybe the first week in November, and he said they're no longer capacity constrained. He said that as it relates to chips, it was really a power constraint. Go back and look where Microsoft closed on October 31st or November 1st or something. It was basically with a few percent of its all time highs. And look what happened afterwards, right? And there's a whole host of the things that have happened. But if we get a whiff that these guys are able to fill these guys being Nvidia, a bunch of these orders, well, that's when things probably start to deteriorate a little bit.
38:19Melissa Lee:And that was going on about six and a half weeks ago. That was really what the sentiment was like. And then you have a 45 percent move in the largest market cap company in the world that's now five and a half trillion dollars. I think it's priced to perfection. And that valuation that folks were really focused on when it was really cheap, it probably doesn't look as cheap right here, right now after that big run. And I will say they can only meet those orders that the customers can fill the energy, can fill the cooling, can fill the water, and the power demands just keep going up, up, up. I'm sure these will be topics for NVIDIA CEO Jensen Wong, who will join CNBC Thursday morning to talk about their quarter, sales, China, power demands.
38:59I'm making all this up because I assume those will be the topics. We're going to find out Thursday morning, 10 a.m. Eastern, 7 Pacific, 8 a.m. Mountain Time. All right, coming up. Mountain Time? What? You still use that term?
39:14Melissa Lee:I mean, honestly, God. It's a real thing. Coming up in Boise. Coming up, we're going to sit down with the CEOs of one of the year's Disruptor 50 standouts. There it is. It's called Time Care. It's got a really important and interesting story. I'm going to find out. All right. Welcome back to Fast Money. CNBC's annual Disruptor 50 list is out, spotlighting the most innovative startups, driving breakthrough technologies. TimeCare, coming in at number 18 in its D50 debut. It's an oncology company, and it's transforming cancer support through its tech-enabled platform, connecting patients with personalized care to improve treatment outcomes.
40:02For more, we're joined now by TimeCare CEO Robin Shaw, as well as Julia Borst. Julia. Thanks so much. And Robin, thanks so much for joining us here, and congrats on being named to the Disruptor 50 list for the first time. Why don't you start off by explaining to us what is Time Care's business model? Because treating cancer is so complex, so costly. How are you approaching it? Yeah, thank you, Julian. Thank you for having me on the show. Sorry I'm not there in person. I had our second child six days ago and would be there if it weren't for that. But just thinking about Time Care, we're an oncology platform focused on people that are living with cancer.
40:40And our business model is centered today around partnering with health insurance plans and taking risk along the cancer patients that they have or their members that they have that have cancer and providing a better experience, a better outcome at a more efficient cost in collaboration with their local providers. When you say better outcome, how do you measure that and what kind of impact have you seen since you launched six years ago? Yeah, when we think about outcomes, we think about access. We think about getting to your physician as fast as possible. We think about the patient experience throughout that entire journey.
41:12And the outcomes that we've seen in our business today, we are driving greater than 5 % medical expense reduction for many of our health client partners and expect that to grow as we invest in more areas that drive value to our patient population. And so how does AI play into this? And how are you making sure that by helping providers cut costs, you're actually improving the quality of care, not giving patients less care? Yeah, so our platform is really centered around a virtual care navigation system powered by humans. We have over 500 care navigators. These are oncology nurses, nurse practitioners, physicians, lay health navigators.
41:49That entire team is powered by a software platform, an AI system that we built in-house that allows our care team to be surfaced the right information at the right time when they're guiding people through their journey and collaborating with their physicians. We're having millions of interactions with patients and we're sitting on all of this data to make sure that we can support cancer patients the best way throughout their journey as they're navigating through treatment and thereafter. You have about 85 ,000 patients right now. What's your plan to scale? And ultimately, what's your goal in terms of outcomes for these patients?
42:25Yeah, so we've actually scaled the business pretty meaningfully since the end of last year, where we ended with 85 ,000 cancer patients that had access to our platform. We now support over 120 ,000 patients, which represents nearly 8 million Americans across the U.S. of those, that percentage of 120 ,000 or so, those that are diagnosed with cancer. We expect to continue to grow the platform in 2026 and expand the new service lines, meaning other insurance types, that our program is going to be accessible to patients. Well, certainly a very important time to be helping both improve outcomes for patients and also manage costs.
43:03Thanks so much for joining us, Time Care CEO Robin Shaw. Thank you so much, Julia. Doing good work there, Julia. And by the way, also a new father as well. So congrats to him. Julie Borson, thank you very much. Thank you so much. All right, take a short break. More Fast Money right after this.
43:28Got some breaking news out of Washington. The Senate just voting on the War Powers Act. Emily Wilkins has more. Emily. Hey, Brian. Well, the Senate has actually gone ahead and advanced that War Powers Act that will put some limits on the strikes that Trump can do in Iran without further congressional approval. Now, it's not fully passed yet. This is just a process vote, but notable because this is the eighth time the Senate has voted on this and the first time they actually have the votes to advance. And that is in part because Rand Paul, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski were joined by Senator Bill Cassidy, who lost his Senate primary over the weekend after Trump endorsed one of his opponents.
44:10And several other members that Trump has also spoken out against wound up missing that vote. So we'll be keeping a close eye on what happens yet. I mean, this entire thing is about sort of whether Congress is going to exercise their ability to put a check on the ability for Trump to have military action in Iran. And we are slowly seeing now more and more Republican senators joining with Democrats saying, yes, we want to put that check in place and we want Trump to come to us if he wants any further military action. Brian? All right. Emily Wilkins, thank you very much. All right, back to the markets.
44:45The State Street Bank ETF, KBE, has been testing a key support level over the last week, finishing the day just above its 50-day moving average. Bank of America closing just$0.07 off its 50-day moving average. J.P. Morgan has been trading below that for the better part of the week. Tim, you flagged this earlier.
45:03Karen Finerman:Yeah, I just, I look at Money Center banks, and I do think that their charts are telling you something more about the conversation we started with tonight. Credit spreads are at all time tights. I think we had a great set of bank earnings. It's going to be a while since we hear it will be a while till we get to hear more about this bottom up story. So I would be pausing here. I think there's a lot of cyclicality in that sector, even though I think U.S. money center banks are to be owned long term. All right. That's it for that. Coming up next, though. Oh, we're going to keep going.
45:30Melissa Lee:No, the music's playing when we come back. Your final trade, something like that. That was a good tease. Solid.
45:44All right, it is time for the final trade.
45:46Karen Finerman:Let's go around the horn. Tim Seymour, kick it off. That was a compelling oncology story in the Disruptor 50. J &J, more than 25 % of the revenues are coming from oncology. Very defensive in this tape. I like Jan Jam long. Stu Kies, I'll stick with the AI bottleneck trade through SMH and the semiconductor sector. What is the bottleneck trade? The bottleneck trade is anything that is undersupplied to AI, whether that's power, memory, chips, et cetera. So I'll use SMH to reflect that. All right. Dan?
46:12Melissa Lee:You know, I'll take the other side of that, and I don't know what your time horizon is on that. I just think that the expectations are so high in NVIDIA. The SMH is so heavily weighted towards NVIDIA and Taiwan Semi. So I'd be a seller of the SMH into the NVIDIA. You're going to put a bet on it, like a little bit of money there? Just did it. The original Protect This House model, that would be Eric Abagawa. Well, his brother and mom and his niece and his grandniece are watching the show right now in California. So hello to the Ibogu family. Big fans. Grew up in Cronon-Hussell, moved to Irvington, which was a mistake.
46:42Melissa Lee:Is there a final trade in this? APA Corp, Brian. Thanks for being here. Thanks for being here, Brian. Great job. Formerly known as Apache. We appreciate it. Guys, thank you very much. It was both interesting and informative. Thanks for watching Fast Money. Matt with Jim starts right now.
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Yields on long-dated Treasuries hit their highest level in nearly 20 years and stocks ended the day lower across the board. Are equities finally starting to reflect the risks in the market? Plus Nvidia reports earnings after the bell tomorrow. What investors will be watching and how to position now.
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