What Spiking Mortgage Rates Do to Homebuying, And Russian Propaganda Hits Home in Ukraine

0:00Taylor Swift: So it almost feels like maybe it's signaling like the death of a showgirl moving into a new era. So maybe that's some of the music that some fans have been craving.

0:12Jane Lytvynenko: Hi, everybody, and welcome to Here's the Scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Basugin. Okay, the mystery has been solved. Taylor Swift has released, it was midnight last night, four new songs. We're going to review them and figure out how fans are feeling about them. There is also going to be a new music video released at the VMAs this weekend. And will she or will she not show up at the VMAs? That's all coming up. Also, we are discussing these Russian propaganda videos that have been disseminated quite widely at this point on social, in which Ukrainian prisoners of war are being coaxed into denouncing their country.

0:52Jane Lytvynenko: And then when released by the Russian military, they are then subsequently returning home and being rejected by their own communities, their hometowns. So we're going to get into how it is these videos are kind of driving more mistrust and hurting morale inside war-torn Ukraine.

1:13Jane Lytvynenko: Up first, though. So mortgage rates hit a troubling peak this week, closing in on 7.5 percent, according to Mortgage News Daily. That is the highest since April of 2024. This steady increase has been going on for weeks, straining the housing market, which was already pretty fragile. And it's coming alongside the broader economic uncertainty, driven largely, of course, by the war with Iran. So to get more insight into what American homebuyers and consumers need to know about all of this, I want to bring in NBC News Chief Business Correspondent, Christine Romans. Hi. Hi, Yasmin. It's great to see you.

1:48Jane Lytvynenko: You too. Okay. The most common home loan that many of us have, I have one, is the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, right? It's been two or three days of just racing higher. What is driving this increase? Because that's high. Three things. Inflation because of two major wars that are disrupting energy flows around the world. Government indebtedness. Governments around the world are spending way more money than they bring in and issuing a lot of debt. So that's another reason. And the third reason is the U.S. economy is stronger than a lot of people think. All this AI data center boom, all of this private investment in the economy overall, the economy is running a little hot, which is inflationary.

2:32Jane Lytvynenko: And so interest rates are rising. All of these factors make investors sell bonds, which drives up yields, which makes borrowing costs higher. I'm going to put myself in the shoes of all the listeners right now that heard you say, the economy is running like hot. It's actually stronger than you think. And they're looking around going, what are you talking about? I'm talking about the stuff that's not touching you on Main Street. It's everything else. Yeah. You had these huge tax cuts, right? So those are putting money in companies' pockets. And then those companies are spending the money by building factories and fabs for semiconductor manufacturing and AI data centers and all this AI spending in general.

3:10Jane Lytvynenko: That's what's keeping the economy kind of hot. I mean, I was just looking at one gauge from the Federal Reserve that it kind of monitors real-time what GDP or economic growth is, and it's putting the third quarter at 5.1%. That's hot, which means the Fed may have to keep raising interest rates, which Wall Street, Wall Street, Wall Street, that's Main Street. because when the Fed raises interest rates and when these market rates rise in anticipation, it means the stuff that we borrow money for becomes more expensive. What does this mean for like the real estate market? What does this mean for home buying?

3:46Jane Lytvynenko: Especially when, I mean, we've done this on this show. We've had this conversation where the younger generation feels like buying a home is completely out of reach in most places. So you couple that with high interest rates. Where are we? So with interest rates rising, That means if you're borrowing money, you're losing. If you're saving money, you're winning. Right? So for those young people who are squirreling a little bit of money away, thinking someday they want to have enough money for a down payment on a home, put it right into a high yield savings account or in a fixed income, you know, low risk kind of fixed income exchange traded fund or something.

4:21Jane Lytvynenko: Get money for your money. And I've— Make your money work for you. A record—people under 40 hold a record amount of stocks. So they're not buying houses, they're investing. And the last five years have been amazing in the stock market. So I haven't really written them off completely yet. But, you know, housing wealth, gosh, that's really steady. That's when you're putting your money in a house and you're living in the house and you're growing in it over time. Does this do anything to our home values? So far, home values have held in there. Now, remember, in the real estate market, you've got all these people who are sitting on paper gains of a lot of money.

4:52Jane Lytvynenko: There's a great amount of wealth. You've heard the president talk about he wants to lower interest rates, but he doesn't want to do anything that is going to hurt people's home values because he knows that there are a lot of people who are millionaires because of the value of their home, because what real estate has done. But it's just these new buyers that just don't have that way in. So then what are we looking at the Federal Reserve the next time they meet? What's going to happen with interest rates? So they meet just before the midterm elections. so the Fed could pause and suggest that it might raise rates again when it meets in December.

5:27Jane Lytvynenko: But even in the last few days, the conventional wisdom is shifting that the Fed may need to raise rates one after another after another, maybe one, two, three little rate hikes. So they could potentially raise rates right before the midterm elections, which they have not normally done because they don't want to necessarily influence the elections or be an influence to the election. When they need to, they will move rates before an election. So let's talk about the feels, right, that you and I have to talk about, the feels versus the reals. So, okay, the strongest economy, things are running hot.

6:01Jane Lytvynenko: You got all the investment, trillions of dollars investment in AI. But people are feeling the economic pain right now, right? We're hearing it in our polls. There's the housing crunch. The rate of inflation is outpacing wage growth right now. We're 38 days out, if you can believe it, from the election. I can't believe that. Early voting is starting soon in some states. What is the messaging now coming from both Republicans and Democrats with this kind of, you know, tough spot? Here's what I think is fascinating. The president started talking about a$5 ,000 check, right, that he was going to give a$5 ,000 check.

6:34And I have asked people in the administration, so is this the White House response to the affordability problem?

6:42Jane Lytvynenko: Yeah. I'm just going to give you some money. Yeah. Or is there a plan to lower prices? And they tell me our policies will ultimately lower prices. Just be patient. We're going to get there. What we're doing are big things, keeping Iran without having a nuclear weapon. Like, we're going to make sure that America depends on its own energy. We don't need this global energy market. They're trying to paint a big picture. They're trying to paint a big picture and just say, just, I'm just being patient. American public is not patient. At the end of the Biden administration, when inflation had come off from 9 percent and was going down, it was like 3 percent.

7:13Jane Lytvynenko: You know, that is a historic improvement in inflation. But people didn't say they felt it. People were angry with the Biden administration. And when the Biden administration would try to message, you know, here's what's going right, they were just nailed for the vibe session. Remember someone coined the vibe session? And President Trump said, I'm going to lower prices on day one. I can end the war in Ukraine on day one. That never would have happened if I were president. I'm going to fix that. Everything's going to be fine. Be fine. But that hasn't happened. Tariffs, tax cuts, there's another war.

7:47Jane Lytvynenko: People are still in that vibe session, but for different reasons. Christine Romans, thank you. By the way, everybody, you need to tune in to my friend's new show called Current, daily, Monday through Friday, 10 to noon Eastern time on NBC News Now, wherever you stream. It's a fantastic show and super smart. Thank you, Esmint. Thank you, Christine. All right, we're going to take a very quick break. And when we are back, an NBC News report found that Russia has coerced thousands of Ukrainian prisoners into denouncing their country for propaganda videos. That's next.

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9:49Jane Lytvynenko: Hi, I'm Angie Hicks, co-founder of Angie. When you use Angie for your home projects, you know all your jobs will be done well. Roof repair? Done well. Kitchen sink install? Done well. Deck upgrades? Done well. Electrical upgrade done well. Angie's been connecting homeowners with skilled pros for nearly 30 years, so we know the difference between done and done well. Angie, the one you trust to find the ones you trust. Find a pro for your project at Angie.com.

10:22Jane Lytvynenko: And we are back with Here's the Scoop from NBC News. So as fighting in Russia's war in Ukraine rages on, a more insidious battle has been taking place online. So Russian social media accounts are posting videos of Ukrainian prisoners seeming to denounce their country and its leaders. Thousands so far based on NBC News reporting. But former prisoners of war who spoke with NBC News say they were forced by their captors to make these statements. The videos have been filmed inside a Russian detention system that has a history of abuse, according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission to Ukraine.

10:56Jane Lytvynenko: And after the videos go viral and the prisoners return home, some are being treated like traitors. NBC News senior technology reporter Jane Litvinenko spoke with some of these former prisoners and their communities in Ukraine, and she is joining me now. Hi, Jane. Hi. Can you kind of explain exactly what we are seeing in these videos?

11:19Christine Romans: So these videos have been being posted for the nearly five years of the full-scale invasion now. And as the former prisoners explained to us, they are part of the prison protocol, essentially. The prisoners who are very badly mistreated, the UN report that you referenced, found that 96 % of the prisoners that they've spoken with have faced torture, beatings. Wow. And essentially, propaganda crews come in, and one of two things happens. Either the prisoners are given a script or told what to say, or if it's a more official propaganda crew, maybe a state agency, then they try to get for the prisoner to say something against Ukraine in their own words.

12:13Christine Romans: And these videos are then posted online by the dozens, hundreds, thousands. And part of what they do is they undermine trust in the Ukrainian army, which is the most trusted institution in the country.

12:25Jane Lytvynenko: You actually spoke with a man, Yevhen, who was taken into captivity, who says he was, in fact, tortured and filmed for one of these propaganda videos. Of course, I remember that I still have guards behind the door and actually my intelligence interrogator, who time to time, very slowly, threatening me to return me to those bad guys who worked with me before.

12:55Christine Romans: So I try to be very careful. What did those careful threats sound like? He said, you know, Yevhan, if you wouldn't get an agreement and you won't be cooperative, I will have to return you to those bad guys who worked with you before.

13:14Jane Lytvynenko: So what is his experience, Yevhan, what has it been like since he's returned home?

13:21Christine Romans: So Yevhan is a really interesting character. He actually lived under a Russian occupation back in 2014 in Donetsk in the east. for two years. And so he kind of watched original Russian propaganda crews come in and pretend to be locals and not know where it is they're pretending to be from. And he's a former journalist, so he really understands the media environment. The reason why we spoke to Yevhen specifically is because he has not himself experienced so many negative consequences of the video that he filmed, but a former cellmate of his did. And so when he returned home, he was really surprised that there were people who labeled his former cellmate as a traitor.

14:17Christine Romans: and as a result he lives in the same town and he doesn't speak to locals very much he and his wife sort of keep to themselves and this is something that for him even without having experienced direct consequences psychologically it's it's difficult this

14:38Jane Lytvynenko: isn't necessarily something that is new that is happening but the new element to all of it is the way in which it is disseminated, right, on social media. How has that changed the kind of the reach and the reaction?

14:52Christine Romans: Yeah, there's sort of two sides to this coin. On one hand, relatives are generally happy to see these videos because it means that the person filming it is alive. And that's a very big point here. Russia doesn't report all of its prisoners to the International Red Cross. Plus, sometimes you don't know what happened to your loved ones. So just to be able to see them for many of the family members that we spoke with, it's a big relief, kind of. But the other side of it is these videos are disseminated on Telegram, on Facebook, and they can really divide communities. Communities who might not fully understand that this is propaganda.

15:37Christine Romans: for one of the characters in the video. His village refused to bury him after seeing this video, but he died in captivity after his cellmate told us that he was tortured. So it's something—

15:50Jane Lytvynenko: He died in captivity and then was sent back to his village, but they refused to bury him? Yeah, they refused to bury him. Because of the videos that were released and what he said in them?

15:56Christine Romans: Yeah, some people in the village believed that he was a traitor and didn't want him buried along other service members in the village cemetery where his mother is also buried. And that wasn't a uniform opinion, but it divided the community. What's the difference between the videos that they film of Russian POWs, the Ukrainians? Ukrainians also film these videos, and it's important to say that international organizations have called on them to stop. The difference is that Ukraine allows unfettered access to the prisons where it holds Russian POWs, And all the major international organizations, the UN and the International Red Cross, have said that those places follow the Geneva Convention.

16:37Christine Romans: So if there is mistreatment, it just happens at the point of capture rather than a systematic, concerted system of torture, which is what Russia has.

16:51Jane Lytvynenko: So amidst all of this, the war is still ongoing. Ukrainian President Zelensky was here in New York for the UN General Assembly. He met with President Trump. He spoke with him. Coupled with the president also inviting Russian President Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit in Miami. Is there any clues, you know, potential of a diplomatic end to this war anytime soon?

17:22Christine Romans: If you look at what President Zelensky is saying and at Russia's attitudes, there doesn't seem to be a path forward at the moment. But that could change. Right now, what is being worked on is an energy ceasefire. Ukraine attacks Russian oil refineries. Russia attacks Ukrainian energy grids and electricity production. And so that is what's on the table ahead of the winter. But we've seen that there have been negotiations on and off for the last four and a half years, and generally they haven't reached consensus. Russia, other world leaders have shared with me that Russia is very set in their goals.

18:06Christine Romans: They are not looking to back down from this war. They're in it for the long haul. And so the chance for peace, it's always there, but there doesn't seem to be a very clear path. Jane Litvinenko, it's incredible reporting, and we are very thankful that you brought it to us.

18:25Jane Lytvynenko: Thank you. Thank you for having me. By the way, you can watch the full video of Jane's reporting filmed in captivity inside Russia's prison propaganda machine at NBCNews.com. All right, up next. The life of a showgirl has become the life of a married lady. what fans are saying about Taylor Swift's latest drop ahead of the VMAs this weekend. And before you queue up Taylor's new songs, make sure that you're also subscribed to our podcast and then share it with a friend who you also love talking about Taylor with. I'll see you on the other side.

19:04Jane Lytvynenko: Ever notice how every new AI tool asks you to explain your business to it all over again? Google Workspace with Gemini skips that. You get Google's AI built right into the premium versions of Gmail, Docs, Sheets, and more. No new tools. No extra logins. Just one subscription that gives you personalized AI right inside your actual workflow. Make work less work. Try Google Workspace with Gemini at goo.gle slash workspace with Gemini. I'm Livy Dunn, All-American gymnast and Viore athlete. When you travel and train as much as I do, you find happiness where you are. On the mat or on the sand, movement and comfort are essential.

19:48Jane Lytvynenko: That's why I live in Performance Joggers by Viore. Made from DreamNet fabric that's made of 89 % recycled materials. Effortlessly soft and made to move as much as I do. My happiness starts here, in the softest joggers on the planet. Get 20 % off your first purchase at viore.com slash Libby. That's V-U-O-R-I dot com slash L-I-V-V-Y. Exclusions apply. Not only will you receive 20 % off your first purchase, but enjoy free shipping on U.S. orders over$75 and free returns. Go to viori.com slash Libby and discover the full versatility of Viori clothing. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions.

20:30Christine Romans: Hi, I'm Angie Hicks, co-founder of Angie. One thing I've learned is that you buy a house, but you make it a home.

20:36Jane Lytvynenko: For decades, Angie's helped millions of homeowners hire skilled pros for the projects that matter. Angie, the one you trust to find the ones you trust. Find a pro for your project at Angie.com.

20:49Jane Lytvynenko: And we are back with Here's the Scoop from NBC News. So, guys, Swifties are buzzing everywhere. Taylor Swift dropped four new songs this morning, what she's calling an encore to her last album, The Life of a Showgirl. The songs are supposed to come with this new star-studded music video. It's going to debut this weekend at the VMAs, where Taylor is up for a bunch of different awards. So we got new songs. We got new music videos. Swifties. No, all of that is always come with a couple of Easter eggs as well to decode. So that is why we are bringing in our in-house expert, NBC News correspondent Emily Akeda.

21:24Jane Lytvynenko: Hi. Hi. Okay, so tell me about these new songs and also the reaction from the fans. Because these are kind of, these are the first songs that have been released since Taylor and Travis got married at MSG.

21:39Taylor Swift: Yes, that's right. And so it feels like we're definitely still in the Life of a Showgirl era. Thus, Encore, get it, like all kind of goes together. And we're almost a year out from the original album, The Life of a Showgirl, that release. So it's these four extra songs, if you will. She even says that it's really to show her gratitude to fans. And she went back. She's working with the same collaborators, Max Martin, Shellback. So it's very glitzy, I think, vibrant Taylor Swift that we saw with The Life of a Showgirl. So the four songs, Patient Zero, Cleveland, Pink Clouding, and Babylon. Patient Zero is the one that she kind of—she dropped this, like, teaser for the music video that we're going to get during the VMAs.

22:20Taylor Swift: Okay. And that, I think that that is kind of like as if the tortured poet's department and the life of a showgirl had a baby. Like a combination of those two types of sounds. Okay. It's kind of reflecting in the lessons learned from a toxic relationship. When the toxins tick, they'll hold you by the dot and let it go. But if you're sick of him, I got you. I was patient zero.

22:47Jane Lytvynenko: I like patient zero having listened to it. I thought it was, I think it's good. I think it's catchy. It's super catchy, yeah.

22:52Taylor Swift: And then there's Cleveland, which is another catchy one, and Earworm for sure. And I think it shows off her bit of humor. Like, she's kind of making fun of herself. She's acknowledging all the comments from haters. And with all of that money, why is she dressed like trash? When she smiles, it's annoying. And have you seen her stumbling? And then Pink Clouding, Babylon. Babylon, I feel like it's kind of like very much more traditional Taylor Swift in terms of like this visual storytelling, that kind of lyrics. She's using like the city of Babylon as a metaphor for something. So that's something very familiar for Swifties.

23:29Taylor Swift: But to your point, there's been a lot of mixed reaction. Have you seen any of the reaction? Some isn't good. Oh, for sure. Yeah. Yeah. Same with The Life of a Showgirl, the original album. Okay. So, okay. I wrote down a couple headlines. Business Insider wrote, they range from inspired to indefensible. Indefensible. Indefensible. Yep. So USA Today wrote, they deserve an ovation. I think some of the criticism that I've seen from critics, but then also Swifties in general, it feels forced. Like, oh, okay, we didn't need these songs. It feels surface level that maybe she's focusing too much on, like, the public perception of her relationship with Travis Kelsey.

24:07Taylor Swift: What more do they want then?

24:08Jane Lytvynenko: What do they actually want?

24:09Taylor Swift: I think people are craving a little bit of—

24:11Jane Lytvynenko: If I was Taylor, I'd be like, why don't you try and write a song?

24:13Taylor Swift: Yeah, I know. And it's very much—she's in love in this moment. And to your point, just a couple months ago, she got married at Madison Square Garden.

24:20Jane Lytvynenko: Is that at all coming through with these songs? Or are people criticizing her, I would say, in that way? Like now that she's in love and like her life is settled and she's married Travis Kelsey and she's found her soulmate. Like she's not like the tortured like female. The tortured poet. Yeah, like the tortured poet, like the tortured girl who's being like wronged by all these men.

24:37Taylor Swift: Well, I do think that there is a cohort of people that are missing some of kind of the heartbreak songs. Right. However, I think that— I mean, that's what made her. There are new, like there's so many, the whole thing about the eras is like she's constantly going through different eras. And I don't think every era is marked by your partner. Right. So we'll see what's to come. And I think the other thing, if you look at the music video, which is 13 seconds long, by the way, her lucky number. And her next album would be her 13th album. So it's all, you know, the Easter eggs, the decoding, all of that.

25:09Taylor Swift: it's a very different vibe, if you will, than the life of a showgirl, which is like the turquoise and bright sparkly orange. Well, this 13-second teaser, it's very moody. It's dark. There's black roses. So it almost feels like maybe it's signaling like the death of a showgirl moving into a new era. So maybe that's some of the music that some fans have been craving. But some fans are loving these four extra songs. But I think people have different opinions and different favorites and there's a big spectrum of feedback.

25:39Jane Lytvynenko: So VMAs are this weekend, as you mentioned, right? They're going to debut this music video for Patient Zero and Dakota Johnson and Colin Farrell are in this video and you've seen 13 seconds of it, right? That's the teaser that's out. Do we know why releasing it at the VMAs? Do we have any idea?

25:57Taylor Swift: I think she loves the big premiere. She loves the debut. Also, it feels very like the cinematography of it. It feels almost more like a short film than a traditional music video. And she's always got something planned. Like she's got a song, she's always masterminding her way through things. Like I will point out Dakota Johnson, who they've been longtime friends, who's in this music video. She's also hosting SNL on October 3rd, which is the one year anniversary. That's my birthday. Oh, is it? Yes. Anyways. You and the Life of a Showgirl. That's when Life of a Showgirl was released. So it's the see if there's like more layers here in terms of future announcements, what else we could get.

26:39Jane Lytvynenko: Wait, do you think that we could see Taylor Swift on SNL on October 3rd with Dakota Johnson? Is that a thing? Is that what you're alluding to?

26:44Taylor Swift: I'll be hopeful. I think that just like all of the dates lining up and the people lining up, there's probably some kind of announcement or acknowledgement. And then I think also keep in mind that like Grammys voting starts in a couple of weeks. And so even though these four songs won't be in consideration for next year's Grammys, it does kind of like move the original album of Life of a Showgirl to top of mind, top of conversation. So there could be some strategy there too.

27:09Jane Lytvynenko: Emily Akeda, thank you.

27:10Taylor Swift: Thanks, Yaz.

27:13Jane Lytvynenko: All right, that is going to do it for us. Here's the scoop from NBC News. I'm Yasmin Basugin. We'll be back on Monday with whatever the weekend may bring. And if you like what you heard, subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And you can also subscribe to our daily newsletter, The Inside Scoop. It is a deeper dive on the main stories of the day that comes out every weeknight straight to your inbox. You can sign up for the Inside Scoop as part of our paid subscription at NBCNews.com. We'll see you Monday.

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28:15Jane Lytvynenko: Your gutters have waited long enough. Find a pro at Angie.com.