Luxury Grocery Retention, OnlyFans Earnings, and the Role of Luck in Getting Rich

0:01So guys, as you can see, I have a bunch of Air One jars in front of me. Now, here's the genius of Air One. What Air One is doing here is they could go with plastic jars with their soup. This is turkey, chili, and then I buy candied walnuts too and things like that, right? But it's smart because they know in California, at least, if they give you a glass jar, they can incentivize. They say, hey, if you return it to us, we'll give you$3. But returning it means I need to go back into the store. So today, Neil and I, we're going to go to Air One and Noah as well. We're going to go to Air One at lunch.

0:31I brought 10 of these jars with me. Guess what? I'm probably going to buy a lot more stuff than just lunch and probably not going to just return this, right? So that's turkey chili. Yeah. And does it taste good? It tastes amazing. 30 ounces of turkey chili. Is it healthy? Yeah. We tend to just get the chicken vegetable soup or chicken noodle soup. Turkey chili. Dude, it's not like a bad thing. Yeah. It's like each jar. Chachi pizza is like 600 calories or so, right? But no one's going to eat a whole jar. It's too much. I do. In one sitting? Yeah. Yeah. Hell yeah, dude. A lot of protein. But the candy walnuts are really good.

1:02Your kids will like that too. But my point is, wait, it has candy walnuts inside? No, no, no. that's another one. So I have another one that says candied walnuts. See, candied walnuts. Oh, that's not a jar of soup. No. So one, some are jars of soup. Some are different jars. Yeah. We have those jars only from the soup. I didn't know that they sell the jars with the point is everyone, everyone's marketing strategy here is smart because they just, it's a retention mechanism. It gets you to come back right there. They, they know that their average order value is a lot higher than other people. So what's the way to get people to come back?

1:31It's just like how, if you work in telecoms, it's the government mandates that you can't call, just churn and cancel on in a dashboard online right you actually have to call so sometimes you take use of you you take advantage of what the mandates are from the government and that's how you end up making more money because again they could just go with convenience and go with plastic containers but they chose to go with the glass and glass is actually very inconvenient like i had so many i have 10 of these actually i brought 10 so 30 yeah 30 i'm gonna get 30 back so i'm very happy about that but guess what i'm probably gonna spend more how are you gonna spend more lunch is like Like maybe like 10 bucks?

2:07Nope. Lunch is never$10, man. Each of my Air One orders. Okay. Each one's like$80,$90. No. Yeah. But I order a bunch of things. I order it for two meals and also like snacks. I order popcorn. I order the overnight oats. I order like, and then I order breakfast and dinner. It's like me ordering for my family. Yeah. So similar costs. But I break it out into three. Yours is in one sitting. In one sitting. Yeah. Anyway, I thought that was interesting because we're going to Air One today. So I was like, I need to finally bring these because my cleaner started packing more of more of these. And so they like contain like a whole like, I don't know, what do you call it?

2:44The pantry. Yeah, it was covered with these. So, yeah. You have another topic in here and I'm curious on the results on this. And I didn't click through to read the results. We say top OnlyFans creators average monthly revenues. What were the average monthly revenues for the top creators? Wait, so where does it say that? 5830. line. 5, 8, 3, oh, okay, great, great. And I'm going to take a guess. My guess is, is it, is that article for the, like, they list out each creator or is it just average? Um, hold on, I'm opening it up. I want to take a guess on what they make. So we're looking at, you're looking at the 0 to 0.1%.

3:22This is monthly revenue that they're capturing. I'm going to go with uh you said 0.2 percent zero zero to 0.1 percent and then 0.1 to 1 percent uh i'm gonna go zero to 0.1 percent is making like 50 grand a month okay and then try for 0.1 to 1 percent 10 grand a month okay so the top only fans creators what they make 0.1 percent zero to 0.1 percent make 146 thousand dollars a month okay that's great that's think of it as recurring That's a lot of cash. And then 0.1 % to 1 % makes$34 ,000 a month. And then 1 % to 5 % makes a measly$200 a month. So we're talking about the fat. There's a long tail.

4:07Yeah, but the long tail barely makes anything. So it's the 1 % that makes everything. It's not the 80-20 rule. It's the 1 % to 99 % rule. Yeah, it's the Pareto principle, right? So Pareto principle dictates 20 % of the effort will get 80 % results. In this case, it's 1 % of effort gets 99 % of results, right? And this is crazy to me because the thing is, dude, 34 grand already per month is a lot of money. That's a lot of money. 146 is like, you're good. That's 1.8 million a year, basically. This makes sense on the German marketer that we met, that kid. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Who has OnlyFans marketing agency when we're doing dinner in, was it Berlin?

4:45No, we were in Frankfurt, I think, right? And he was telling us the biggest issue wasn't doing the marketing and making money. was that because they make so much money, and we weren't getting into the numbers really, but he was saying because they make so much money in a few months, the people he's dealing with, at least I'm not trying to generalize here, but the people he was dealing with, and he had quite a bit of accounts he was working with, they tend to start getting lazy and they stop producing content. Then when they need more money, they do it again. And because it's so easy for them to make money that they don't do it consistently, they're just more so do it when they need the cash.

5:20They start to become entitled. And remember, entitlement is what leads you to a path of what? You need an intervention at the end. Remember that? Remember what I told you? I spoke to that intervention. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Entitlement leads to that eventually. So, guys, don't become too entitled. But when you talk about entitlement, it reminds me of the, is it Jim Simmons who ran, what's that big hedge fund? He passed away. Was it Citadel? Renaissance, yeah. Was it Jim Simmons? Jim Simon. Jim Simons or something like that? I'm getting his name wrong. but um i watched a video with him a long time and i'm paraphrasing he was talking about why he doesn't like hiring people from like harvard and stanford and all those places yeah he's like they're too in his opinion yeah uh he felt that they were too entitled and because they were too entitled they don't grind it out and work as hard as the people who did not you know what's interesting so um there's always edge cases right but we have someone on our team who is from harvard and she works extremely hard.

6:16She cares a lot. So it's like you always get edge cases. But then on the other side, I remember when I was working a dead-end job when I came out of college, because it was after 2008, I was doing data entry and now that job would be totally screwed. But I was only doing data entry. It's going to be 32 grand a year, right? And there's a guy, I was 22 years old. There's a guy who was 30 years old, graduated from Harvard and he was doing the same exact thing I was doing, right? But to your point though, Jensen Huang also says that people, he did a speech at Stanford. He's like, you know, The problem is you go to an amazing school like this.

6:44And the problem is people that go to great schools like this, you have very high expectations. But people don't have very high expectations. You have very low resilience. And when you have very low resilience and you have very high expectations, you have a lot of entitlement. I was talking to Noah about this before you came because I was walking in. And I saw Noah setting up and we were talking about money and making money in business. and I was telling him how, you know, there's someone that I know, Ivy League school, or technically, Stanford's not considered an Ivy League. I'm pretty sure they're not, right?

7:18No, West Coast. I don't think so. Too new of a school compared to Harvard. But they went to Stanford, they put in all this work, and they were complaining how they don't make as much money as someone else that we both know. Not you, but me and the other person. And they're just like, this isn't fair. I graduated from Stanford. I got it. And I was telling him like, you put in the work to get into Stanford and you feel that, and this is not all Stanford students, this is just them. And I'm like, you feel now that you put in all that work and got your degree that everything should be easy. I'm like, that's not reality.

7:54I'm like, the other person that you're comparing yourself to didn't put as much work into high school. They did not get into Stanford or any decent school. They actually didn't even go to college. And I'm like, they grinded it out. They hustled. They did whatever it took to succeed. And they're making millions and millions a year in profit. But I'm like, look at how much they work and look at where you go on vacation and look at where they go on vacation. And the response to me was, I haven't seen where they go on vacation. And I'm like, exactly. I'm like, you just got back from Hawaii and before that you went to Oslo.

8:27And I'm like, they don't go on vacation and they're grinding it out. And I'm like, this is why they're doing better than you. Yeah. How did this person react overall? they were pissed and they still felt it wasn't fair. Well, life's not fair. Yes. Suck it up. I know people who worked way less than me, didn't put as much energy, and they're way more wealthier than I am, and they got lucky with their business. I don't hate on them. I wish I get luck like that too. And I'm like, good for you. Yeah. And I hope I get luck like that as well. You know, there's something worth talking about too. So do you believe that luck plays a minimal factor or a major factor in business?

9:03Major factor. I agree. It's one of the biggest factors that people don't really think about. I was with a meeting with Guy Kawasaki years and years ago. Oh, yeah. This is when he wrote Art of the Start. Uh-huh. And his personal brand helped him become evangelist for Canva. He made a boatload of money from his Canva shares, right? Has he cashed out from that? I don't know if he's probably sold secondaries. He was already rich, but he'll be great from just his Canva shares as an advisor. Yeah. And it was early on. So when I was talking to a guy, and this was in his office back in the day where he had Garage Ventures.

9:39I don't know if he still does. And he was talking to me about entrepreneurship. And he's like, you know, every time investors talk about investing in big TAMs, hard work, resilient entrepreneurs, these are all great things that you need. But he's like, if I had to pick one thing, if I could pick this one thing, he's like, I would pick luck every time. Because he's like, a lot of the companies that have done really well, it's luck. And I'll give you a great example of this recently. You saw Figma stock pop. When I first started my business, the overwhelm was real. I didn't have the tools to help me scale.

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11:32It was easy to use and the end result was polished enough to look like a developer spent days on it. One of my favorite things is that Framer's AI handles translations with a single click. So your site can be up and running in multiple languages almost instantly. And with real-time collaboration, your whole team can jump in and work together. No issues with versions or miscommunication, whether you're starting from scratch or using one of their templates. Framer lets you focus on design while handling the technical side for you animations responsive layouts search optimization and all the things that matter ready to build a site that looks hand-coded without hiring a developer launch your site for free at framer.com and use code ms to get your first month of pro on the house that's framer.com promo code ms framer.com promo code ms rules and restrictions may apply no one knew it was gonna pop that much yeah when you look at it just from a fundamental growth perspective, revenue EBITDA perspective, I'm assuming you would agree they would struggle to sell for$30,$40 billion.

12:31Majorly underpriced. Their IPO. So I agree. No, no, no. But you agree right now the current valuation, if they went to the market beforehand to sell, they would struggle to sell for, what did they become valued at? $60 billion,$70 billion? I don't know how much, I don't remember how much it popped by. A lot. That's all I remember. uh figma order no that's not it figma stock figma inc 79 market cap is 38 billion dollars oh yeah it's actually gone down a lot no i think i so i searched figma stock i don't think that's the right one no this is the right one are you sure inc it's gone down a lot because i was i was saying it was overpriced yeah and because it came out like at 110 or something like that then it went Over$120 is what it looks like.

13:22The 52-week high is$142.92, according to Yahoo Finance. That's not double from where it's now, but you're looking at like a$60 billion company. Now, Figma is worth$38 billion. Wow,$122, you're right. Yeah. No, if you look at the 52-week high, it's$142. It's even higher. Wow. Again, don't know how accurate this is. Yeah. But all I'm getting at is some of it is luck, like people who quickly sold at that price. I don't know if existing shareholders were locked in or what the deal was. I look at that as a luck. It was overpriced. Figma was not worth$120. I don't think based on their revenue, this is not financial advice.

14:05They're worth$79 that it's trading at today. You know, you look at Canva too. I'm looking at Canva. So 2021 valuation was$40 billion. And in 2022, obviously, you know, things dropped. So it went to$26 billion. and then 2024 secondary shares sold at a valuation of$26 billion. But recent secondary share sales, June 2025,$56 billion valuation, right? And the thing is I've spoken to Melanie before on my podcast a long time ago and the story with her with Canva, multi-billion dollar company, but it took her a very long time to find the right idea. It also took her a very long time. A lot of investors said no.

14:43Almost all of them did. Yeah, but she kept going, right? So there's an element, I think it was a Chinese saying that luck is where opportunity meets preparation. But you still have to work hard. But when you work hard, that means you're better prepared for when the opportunity hits, right? Yes. Some people get more opportunities than others. Like that's something you can't control. But you can't control how hard you work. And some people like to think, oh, it's because I'm so good. No, like luck plays into it. And there's one thing from that company in Giants book, all these people, Hewlett Packard, or you have Steve Case, you have Apple.

15:13AOL. AOL, right? they're just like no like luck played a major factor i'm so lucky to be like even when they achieved all the success the billions and billions the hundreds of millions that they got they're just like luck is a major fact and we both agree with it i think if you're listening to this and you think that it comes down to you at the end like it a big part is you but it's oftentimes things that are out of your control too i was speaking at an event yesterday and someone asked me what was the key to success for np digital and i straight up said luck not because were talking about it but I just coincidentally said luck and they're like what do you mean and I'm like I worked hard and built up my personal brand for call it you know 15 plus years more than that 17 ish plus years before I launched NP Digital I didn't realize a personal brand was gonna help me yeah you didn't know yeah I was like it was luck that I did it early on and I just kept doing it and then I was like and then and you know some of the story um got Nick Rochon got lucky there.

16:12He's great. He's great. Critical hire. I think Mike is critical too. Mike came out. Yes. My co-founder is really good. But then Nick got us JJ, which, you know, JJ is no longer with us, but JJ got us Mike G, our CEO, Mike Gullickson, which a lot of it was like, if I never had Nick, I would have never got JJ. If I never had JJ, I would have never had Mike Gullickson. And then Mike brought a lot of amazing people and we brought, We also recruited tons of amazing people globally outside of those two as well. But a lot of it was just timing and luck. I'll give you an example too, and then we can move on from this.

16:48But recently I had a former employee reach out, so he's moved on to do his own thing. He reached out. He's like, hey, how did you find the CTO that you have, right? I was like, it was luck. I can't replicate this because it's like, yes, I invested in his last startup. Yes, to meet him, I met Steve from Prey.com. okay um and to meet this the cto it was i got invited to a dinner from a guy that i met from miami and then steve couldn't make it steve was sick and then so he he subbed this guy in and so the moment this guy subbed in i was like oh i invested in his company i'm like i'm not even going to talk to these other people at this it was like a very la dinner right you had some influencers i didn't give a crap about the other people i just started talking to him and then before you knew it like we just kept testing for six eight months or so and then we we realized we work really well together and that's how that happened i was like you can't replicate that That was being very lucky.

17:35But it's like I had to be at the right place at the right time in so many different situations. Yeah, same for you. But you have to take the opportunity and seize it and actually go to those meetings and do the things that don't work out. And one of them potentially may hit. Yeah. Yeah. You just never know. So luck is a major factor. I think Neil and I are extremely fortunate in our lives. Anyway, that's for today, guys. Bye.