In short
The AI Spending Trap discusses how businesses can lose deals when buyers ask AI for solutions and the company doesn’t “show up,” plus how to manage AI token/compute costs without wasting money.
Guests
Neil (runs/works at an agency; uses Claude heavily; discusses HubSpot AEO and marketing/ads) and Eric (co-host; runs Single Grain; discusses token maxing, ROI metrics, and ad/landing-page strategy).
Key claims
“Token maxing” (spending as much as possible) creates perverse incentives unless paired with ROI metrics (churn, LTV, repeat purchases). Unmanaged token spend can explode costs; tokens can be reduced via long-lived tokens and CLI/OAuth. Examples: X/Twitter “mid-form” horizontal video clips driving hundreds of thousands of views; Gröns selling for $1.2B by message-match landing pages and personalized funnels; Anthropic’s $1.5B Wall Street-backed AI services JV and OpenAI’s $4B services JV.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOUnderstanding Token Maxing
0:26 to 2:30
Discussion about token maxing and its implications in marketing.
“So I'm going to show it to everyone and then show kind of what's working for me on Twitter right now.”
Analyzing AI Spending
2:30 to 6:40
Exploring the challenges and logic behind AI spending in marketing.
“So I think it just depends on what you see.”
The Race in AI Models
6:40 to 9:20
Examining the competition among AI models like Anthropik and OpenAI.
“What do you think is like the model that's ahead in the world right now?”
The Importance of Distribution in AI
9:20 to 12:30
Discussing how distribution impacts AI success for companies like Google and Microsoft.
“I don't think they're going to be leaps and bounds better each new cycle.”
Funding Trends in AI
13:23 to 14:01
Discussing the recent funding trends and their implications for AI companies.
“This has never been a better time to do business, I believe.”
OpenAI's Recent Growth and Revenue Shift
14:01 to 14:24
Learn about OpenAI's significant revenue growth and investment strategies.
“So OpenAI has raised over$4 billion for a new joint venture focused on helping businesses adopt software.”
Groon's Billion Dollar Exit Strategy
14:25 to 16:19
Discover how Groon achieved a $1.2 billion acquisition through targeted marketing.
“So I think we thought like, at least I was like, oh man, OpenAI is really falling behind.”
Lessons from Groon's Marketing Approach
16:20 to 17:51
Explore the importance of message alignment and effective ad strategies.
“You know, one thing to mention is, is he's also ex-Unilever.”
Understanding Acquisition Structures
17:52 to 19:16
Gain insights into how acquisition deals are structured and incentivized.
“But one thing about Grunz is I'm pretty sure, and when I say pretty sure, I'm guessing.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Eric Siu:When a buyer asks AI for a solution like yours, does your business come up? Most companies have no idea. And by the time they find out, they've already lost the deal to someone who did. HubSpot AEO helps you show up in those moments with the right answers buyers are looking for. Before the first click, before the first form fill. That's the moment HubSpot AEO is built for. Check out HubSpot.com, the agentic customer platform for growing businesses. Remember I was talking how TVPN does the ads at the end? So this time I found the ad. So I'm going to show it to everyone and then show kind of what's working for me on Twitter right now.
0:34Eric Siu:And then we can move over to Token Maxing.
0:37Neil Patel:TBPN's daily newsletter has op-eds that are written by Jordy and I, in addition to top tech headlines and the timeline's best posts. Sign up for free at tbpn.com.
0:47Eric Siu:Okay. So I want to explain what I just played over here. So we did the eBay video first. There's that interaction. And then they basically clipped that part. And I call this a mid-form clip where it's like three to ten minutes or so. and it's horizontal, it's not vertical. These tend to do pretty well on Twitter or X. You see this one has 644 ,000 views. So that's 644 ,000 impressions that you have for a post roll over here to get people onto their newsletter and it kind of advertises their show too. And so I think we're gonna see more of this and I wanted to test this as an example for kind of the work that we're doing right now, right?
1:21Eric Siu:So if you go to, I'm looking at my page right now. um i think this one is maybe it's with you as well not bad okay look neil so there's a there's a video of neil here with his kid's uh laptop decorating it and then this is us talking about anthropic as a single growth market this is from this podcast neil okay two minutes over here 54 000 views that's not bad right yeah it's not bad yeah so you got you got two here so my point of saying this is like you have 1100 bookmarks 535 likes um i think there is this one's 1.7k i'm looking over here 9 10k over here uh 2.2k in fact whoever wants to advertise on this podcast the next advertiser will have to pay for these impressions as well because we will also stack these on so um 18k on that one not bad right so my point of saying all this is that um if you're trying to grow on like x for example the reason i think tbpn did so well is because they were selling these impressions especially on x and you know you have very tech forward people listening
2:19Neil Patel:to this stuff right so uh what do you think about this it's not a bad way to monetize but with when their ad, I always saw go subscribe to their website. I didn't hear them pitch another company or product or service. I saw other companies.
2:31Eric Siu:So I think it just depends on what you see. Like last
2:33Neil Patel:time I tried to show it, I couldn't find it. No, no, no. The one you just played right now, it wasn't a pitch of another company. It was just subscribe to their own channel. I've seen them pitch other companies. Oh, I got it. You're saying they rotated up. So it's random.
2:44Eric Siu:Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So we should definitely do that. You know, what's funny for this podcast, Neil, I have to record the podcast for you or the podcast ads for you promoting your company because you won't do it for yourself. So if you would ideally do it for yourself, we can include yours as well. I can do it. Just tell me what you want me to record. Uber Suggest. I'll just tell you right now. Uber Suggest, Answer to Public, and MP Digital. Yeah. You can just make like 3.30 seconds at the end. Please don't do it when you're traveling. Do it in like a nicer... 3.30.
3:18Neil Patel:Okay, I sent myself a note. Oh, with video or no video?
3:23Eric Siu:I think you should do video because we want it to be horizontal.
3:26Neil Patel:Okay. Cool.
3:27Eric Siu:All right. Because I think we're going to get a lot more views this way. Anyway. Okay. So let's talk about the next topic here. So a lot of people are talking about token maxing. Okay. So, you know, I've been watching some videos. Everyone's like, yeah, you should token max. What token maxing is first and foremost is spending as much as you can on tokens. Okay. So here's the uncomfortable truth about token maxing. Simple execution beats clever strategy when timing is right. So what that means is if you spend on token maxing, like let's say Neil says, oh, Eric, if you work for me, you have to spend as much as possible.
3:57Eric Siu:I would just run my tokens on stupid tasks all day. I may just have an agent just to hit that number so I don't get fired. Okay. But if you say just token maxing alone is pretty stupid because it creates perverse incentives. When you create a metric like this, you have to have a pairing metric. And so a pairing metric means, sure, you can try to token max, but maybe every time, at the end of every month, you have to go to your manager and say, hey, here's all the things that we built. Here's how it helps customers or here's how it gets us customers. Because if you don't have a pairing metric there, it's going to just drive a bunch of compute up.
4:29Eric Siu:You're going to pay an arm and a leg and you're going to get nothing from it, from your organization.
4:34Neil Patel:Dude, I totally agree. I don't understand why people would want to just juice up their cost. Like it doesn't make any logical sense other than their bosses looking at it as a way of, did you use AI? And we can see based off of your spend, I think that's just a terrible way. They should start looking at things like, what tasks did you actually complete? What were the results from it? What's the ROI? Did it reduce churn or increase LTV or repeat purchases? And I genuinely believe that's what a lot of the data and analytics teams will start looking at or CIO or CFO. They'll start grinding into the numbers because you can't just say in marketing, oh, we're all spending 5 % or 10 % more of our marketing costs in total because of AI.
5:18Neil Patel:Oh, what are we getting for that? Who knows? But look at this spend. People are just going to be pissed. Yep.
5:24Eric Siu:So again, I don't think we're saying don't look at your tokens. I think we're both saying that look at your tokens, absolutely, but your token spend. But you have to make sure that you're working closely with your team because if unmanaged, it's just going to go all over the place. speaking of which neil um my my token cost got up to basically like a twelve thousand dollar a month run rate um and i was like oh my god this is crazy so what i did was i literally all you have to do now for neil if you want to cut it to zero for yourself is you're paying for the cloud max subscription two hundred dollars a month you can even pay for the chat she'd be two hundred dollars a month the important thing is you create a long-term token which will last for a year and use the cloud cli command line interface for that you literally you can just go to your cloud and say, how do I make a one-year token?
6:05Eric Siu:You create that token, and then you just run your whatever you're using, like an open claw or whatever, and that will basically cut your cost. I cut it down to 87 cents, from$400 a day, Neil, to 87 cents a day.
6:18Neil Patel:Yeah, that's awesome. You shared that last week, or was it the week before? Where the issue, for a few-day period, it started, or one-day or two-day period, it started rising again. It's not up to$400, so I fixed that,
6:29Eric Siu:and now officially it's on the clawed CLI, or you can use OpenAI OAuth. I will say another thing, Neil, that's funny about this stuff is, let me just ask you right now, let's see where you're at. What do you think is like the model that's ahead in the world right now? The number one model, AI model.
6:46Neil Patel:I would say it's Anthropik who's winning right now, just based off of your valuation and how many people want to buy their stock and how many people in my organization use Claude versus any other company's products. Like they have access in my organization, You have access to Microsoft's products, Google's products, OpenAI's products. But yeah, majority of my employees are using cloth.
7:11Eric Siu:Yep. So here's the thing. Would you would also agree that in the world, there's a little bit of a lag when it comes to adopting like the internet or email, things like that? Yes?
7:20Neil Patel:Yes, but the lags have gotten shorter and shorter over time. So for example, when it comes to AI, the reason, or let's actually go with e-commerce. The reason it really started picking up is everyone started having these devices and it made it easier to buy. If you start looking at things like AI, well, you don't have to get people on the internet as or when people had to get on the internet, not a lot of people had computers. Now everyone already has devices that plug right into the AI. So it's easier for human beings to adopt the technology at a much quicker pace. Yeah.
7:54Eric Siu:So let me tell you where I'm going with this, Neil. So a couple like very until very recently, everything was about Claude. There were marketing very quickly. It's like they could do no wrong, right? Mythos came out, you know, Opus 4.7, amazing, right? Oh my God, they're shipping constantly, co-work, all this stuff. Here's the thing, Neil, in the past couple of weeks or so, because I tend to live in this world, OpenAI is slowly taking the crown back, right? Everyone now on X is talking about Codex, they're talking about chat, TPT 5.5, they're talking about the slash goal commanders, all these things.
8:24Eric Siu:And so I think it's pretty funny that in AI, we're very promiscuous. There's a tug of war. All that matters in this world when you're talking about trying to stay at the cutting edge of intelligence is the product itself, right? Nothing matters more. One or two weeks, three weeks ago, I would just be talking about Claude all day. And now I'm like, oh, man, this OpenAI has made a comeback. I will gladly switch over to it. So it's like there isn't really a defined moat quite yet.
8:51Neil Patel:I'm not seeing it yet. It's coming soon. I genuinely believe it's coming soon, and I think the winners are going to be Microsoft and Google. because if you look at the technology right now, it's improved over time. When AI first came out, it's drastically improved from then to now. But in the earlier days, you saw much bigger leaps in the technology. You give it two, three, four years, the versions that keep changing, I don't think they're going to be leaps and bounds better each new cycle. and I believe the Microsofts and the Googles are going to be like, it's included with your subscription for your company and it's free.
9:32Neil Patel:And I believe that they will just dominate and take over a lot of the corporate spending, which is where Anthropic is growing extremely fast due to the fact that they already have the customer base and they'll take free overpay.
9:43Eric Siu:Real quick, if acquiring customers has been a struggle for you and you are trying to figure out how AEO works, Answer Engine Authentization or the new version of SEO, how paid works, how all this AI stuff is going to play into your customer acquisition strategy then check out my ad agency, Single Grain. It's singlegrain.com. And if it looks like it's a good fit, we'll help you with a free marketing plan. So again, go to singlegrain.com and we'll see you on the other side. Yeah, I'm trying to pull up a chart where it shows AI intelligence compounding over time, where basically it's right now at genius level and it's gonna continue to get stronger and stronger.
10:13Eric Siu:So I'll try to pull that up in a little bit, but let me just show you something, Neil. So we're talking about, Neil talking about Microsoft and Google being the winners in AI. There's a big reason why that's important, because when you look at Google and you look at Microsoft, they have the most distribution, right? It's distribution that matters, especially distribution is getting harder and harder in an AI-driven world where you can make whatever you want. You want to be able to control that distribution. And Microsoft, they have those enterprise contracts locked down. Google as well. In fact, Google kind of has the whole stack.
10:45Eric Siu:They have the Tensor processing units. They have Search. They have Android. They have Gemini. They have what else do they have, Neil? They have Gmail. They have YouTube. They just have all the distribution in the world. They have all the data in the world, and they're going to make use of that. So obviously, they have Google Ads too. And then Microsoft, not too bad themselves. They're both multi-trillion-dollar companies. So you were just speaking about, Neil, Anthropic and OpenAI. I just want to call something out here. So you look at this here. I'm going to share my screen real quick. So let me share my screen.
11:16Eric Siu:Let's go over here. So Anthropic has decided to start a$1.5 billion joint venture with multiple Wall Street firms. So you got Blackstone in there, you got Goldman Sachs in there, they're all major investors. And basically, this is from Wall Street Journal, Anthropic Nears$1.5 billion joint venture with Wall Street firms. So Anthropic, Blackstone, Hellman, and Friedman and Goldman Sachs announced the formation of a new AI services company. The organization will work with mid-sized companies across sectors to bring Cloud into their most important operations. Applied AI engineers from Anthropic will work alongside the firm's engineering team to identify where Cloud can have the most impact, build custom solutions, and support customers over the long term.
11:57Eric Siu:So the company is backed by these leading companies. Oh, look, Apollo's in here. Sequoia's in here as well. These are General Atlantics in here. These are major firms, okay? So why is this important? People might be thinking, oh, well, first of all, first and foremost, Anthropic and OpenAI are doing this. That means that everything still comes back to services at some point. And you might be thinking, oh, I run an agency. Now I have no chance. No, this actually reinforces that people need agencies. They need services companies to help with implementation here. So I think this is a net positive thing.
12:28Eric Siu:It's not a negative thing, right? There's a lot of things that I see online right now where people are talking about building these single brains or company brains and all these things. and that reinforces the path that I'm on. But also when I look at Neil's agency as well, it's not like this stuff is going away. In fact, they're going to need it more because I think Anthropik and OpenAI, they're going to try to go with, their engineering resources are going to focus more so on the enterprise market, right? It could be a lower market enterprise or higher enterprise, but there's still a lot of room.
12:56Eric Siu:There's still more customers than ever. And there's going to be a lot more entrepreneurs, I believe as well. So I would try to double down, triple down, especially if a services business.
13:04Neil Patel:Yes. and services now, I think, is going to explode more and more because of all the noise that's around it right now and all the announcements, right? Like it's becoming, quote unquote, sexier, at least temporarily.
13:17Eric Siu:Yeah, I mean, look, what is it? Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Ycommoner, talk about this, the new$1 trillion company is a services firm, right? Services as a software. So that's why I'm more excited. I'm excited for Neo. I'm excited for myself. This has never been a better time to do business, I believe.
13:34Neil Patel:yeah and uh what was the amount that they all raised open ai did a joint venture with someone i forgot what the dollar i forgot how much they raised yeah but it was in the billions and i'm assuming i think anthropic was five right five billion uh for the joint venture one point one point five oh one point five maybe the other one was five billion yeah let me see so open ai raises money for services yeah that's right anthropic was one point five the other one was which you just covered but the other one was five billion i think i could be wrong the deployment company
14:01Eric Siu:Okay, yeah, I see it over here. So OpenAI has raised over$4 billion for a new joint venture focused on helping businesses adopt software. So who's in here? You got the other side, TPG, Brookfield Asset Management and Bain Capital, all the biggest companies, right? In terms of investment companies. They're spending. Yep. Enterprise growth, by the way, enterprise revenue for OpenAI now makes up over 40 % of total revenue with targets to reach parity with consumer revenue by end of 2026. So I think we thought like, at least I was like, oh man, OpenAI is really falling behind. And then boom, before you know it, they're back.
14:31Eric Siu:Right. Let's just see how that lawsuit goes. Yeah.
Read the full transcript
14:34Neil Patel:Yeah.
14:35Eric Siu:All right. So let's here. I'm going to pick another one here. I'm good at the screen shares guys when we're on the go. So I'm just going to keep calling these out. I'm going to let you pick one. Which one do you like to pick?
14:47Neil Patel:All right. So let's go with. Oh, I want to do the Groon's one. Right. The ad strategy that helped Groon sell for 1.2 billion. or using your hook in the sheet, this brand sold for 1.2 billion off of landing pages.
15:05Eric Siu:Yeah, here we go, Neil. So this is Groons. This is Chad Janus or Chad Janus. Dude, I'm calling this out again, Neil. Look at this. This mid-form video, 367k views, okay? So the Groons founder, Chad, sold his three-year-old company, Groons Unilever, for 1.2 billion dollars. And here's what he did that most brands don't. Most brands send every ad to the same generic homepage. That's why they bleed cash. Chad builds an entire world around every winning ad angle. The system is you test hundreds of ads per month to find the unlock. Once an angle sticks, so gut health, energy, focus, you rebuild everything around it.
15:43Eric Siu:If someone checks a gut health ad, landing page is 100 % gut health. A pop-up asks about their gut concerns, emails, SMS, tailored to gut health. His team is 30 people. That's pretty crazy. 30 people, five to six creative strategists, four to five media buyers, three on retention. Look, the media strategists or the creative strategists outnumber the media buyers, right? Three on retention. The tool is you use Replo, which is a Shopify plugin. Chat says they don't charge enough. You can now build a funnel, build a new funnel today. So I guess it's a funnel builder. Winners don't just test ads. They rebuild the entire experience around each winning message.
16:13Eric Siu:Message match is the difference between$10 million and$1.2 billion exit. I'll let you go first.
16:19Neil Patel:You know, I think Gruden did an amazing job marketing. You know, one thing to mention is, is he's also ex-Unilever. So he understands marketing really well. They're one of the bigger spenders of marketing globally. And he came from there, built a good product. And it wasn't hard to get that product to go viral because that category just tends to do well. He grew really fast. And, you know, I think it was a smart playbook.
16:44Eric Siu:Yeah. So by the way, I don't know if you know this, Neil, but he, when he started the company, his goal was to sell it to Unilever because he knows their playbook. Right. And the other thing, I mean, let's, I think it's always a lot of marketing stuff. We haven't seen a lot of new marketing channels in the last 10 years or so, but a lot of, we often forget about the fundamentals. If someone sees an ad, let's say it's a green colored ad talking about, you know, your gut health, and then they land on a landing page that's orange and it talks about sleep. That's, it's not going to be aligned and you, you lose trust that way.
17:16Eric Siu:Right. And people have very short attention spans. So whether you use something like a Replo for Shopify or on the B2B side right now, we still have Carrot, K-A-R-R-O-T. Carrot allows you to personalize your LinkedIn ads. And then the landing page is also personalized as well because you want those things to look relatively the same. And in this case, we kind of personalize the company name, the name, and things like that. But I think this is smart. Good job on him. I think he can ride off into the sunset. And sometimes when you work at a company, you know their strategy, and you're focused on it, and look, only 30 people, this, again, reinforces that you don't – the rise of these small teams, big businesses.
17:51Eric Siu:You also look at perplexity, only 30 people on the team.
17:55Neil Patel:There's only 30 people at perplexity? Yeah. I did not know that. But one thing about Grunz is I'm pretty sure, and when I say pretty sure, I'm guessing. I don't have any inside information. Oh, no. I'm wrong. It says 1 ,500 employees. That sounds about right with perplexity. Because it's an AI company. I'm like, that just sounds too low. But with Groon's, that$1.2 billion number is the flash number, like what they go out with the release with. Majority of these deals, what happens is you get X amount of dollars up front. The rest is hit on earnouts based on the company performing and hitting A, B, and C milestones.
18:33Neil Patel:That's typically how almost all acquisitions work.
18:36Eric Siu:Yeah, I'm looking at it right now. So here's a breakdown of the structure. Reports suggest it's a cash acquisition designed to scale the brand under. So yeah, there's probably a mix of multiple things.
18:47Neil Patel:Yeah, it's usually not simple like, here's a$1.2 billion. Because then people can just leave and then you don't have the founding team. And a lot of people are just like, I got my check, I'm done. So they incentivize. Incentivize not by just having you sign a piece of paper saying that you'll stay for two or three years. Incentivize on which you need to keep pushing harder to grow this thing. And that's how you'll unlock more money. If not, you won't get the full 1.2. With that being said, yeah, we'll talk to you guys later. Bye. Thank you.
From the publisher
Neil Patel and Eric Siu break down the rise of “token maxing,” why AI token spend without ROI is dangerous, and how companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft are battling for AI dominance. They also cover TBPN’s X growth strategy, AI-powered advertising, enterprise AI services, and the marketing playbook behind Grüns’ $1.2B exit. A must-watch for marketers, founders, and AI operators looking to scale with smarter distribution, AI adoption, and performance marketing strategies.
Key Takeaways:
⬛️ Token maxing without ROI creates dangerous incentives
⬛️ Google and Microsoft may dominate AI through distribution
⬛️ Grüns scaled to a $1.2B exit with message-match funnels
Chapters:
(00:00) TBPN’s X Ad Strategy
(00:33) Mid-Form Content Growth
(01:41) Monetizing Podcast Impressions
(03:00) What Is Token Maxing?
(04:08) AI Spend vs ROI Debate
(05:10) Cutting AI Token Costs
(06:16) Anthropic vs OpenAI
(09:50) Why Distribution Wins AI
(10:49) Anthropic’s $1.5B Venture
(12:03) Why Services Businesses Win
(13:32) OpenAI Enterprise Growth
(14:21) Grüns’ $1.2B Marketing Playbook
