Fed Predictions & Tech Expert Dan Ives on Bitcoin and Bull Markets

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3:06It's time for some money rehab.

3:16Hey, Money Rehabbers, it's Morgan, the producer of the show. And today is the last day of Peter Tuchman's week of guest hosting Money Rehab. Peter Tuchman is a broker on the New York Stock Exchange. He is also a host of one of Eminence podcasts called Trade Like Einstein. He's a really sharp thinker in this space, and he also has more energy than anyone I've ever met. So if you don't subscribe to his show, please check it out. He's really wonderful. In today's episode, Peter starts by doing what he's done every day this week, which is giving a breakdown of what happened in the financial markets today.

3:51He has a really special point of view because he is there in the heart of it on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. So he explains what's moving and shaking in the market today and why he thinks a Santa Claus rally is about to happen, which is a typical sort of upswing in the market that we see around this time of year historically. And then in the second part of his conversation, instead of hearing one of his favorite interviews from the year, you're actually going to hear an interview that he taped today with Dan Ives. Dan is a managing director and senior equity research analyst at Wedbush, and he is one of the most sought after analysts and specialists on tech.

4:33He really has his finger on the pulse in this space. I pay very close attention when he talks. And Peter and Dan just have a really fun dynamic. They tape together a lot for Peter's show. So if you love that, definitely subscribe. And then next week, I will be guest hosting the show. I'm really excited. I'll tell you more about that on Monday. But for now, here's Peter. Three, two, one. Hey, everybody. It's me, the Einstein of Wall Street. We are here with Trade Like Einstein. I am Peter Tuchman, and we're here on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in the balcony. History is made in this building every single day.

5:11Somebody with my long-term experience, I've been here for 137 years, it is my responsibility to help teach you how to navigate this market successfully. Boom! Everybody, it's me, the Einstein of Wall Street from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. The ceiling, the floor, the greatest financial institution in the world. We're talking S &P 6 ,000. And what a great week. We are now, amazingly enough, I can't believe it, I'm still back in July. But we are literally two weeks away from the end of 2024, a year that has given us 27 % on the S &P. It has hit records in the NASDAQ of 20 ,000. I think we came super, super close, but surely broke through 6 ,000 on the S &P.

5:51The Russell trading at record highs and the Dow at 45 ,000, right? Pulled back a little bit this week, but that's not that important. We actually had on the day that the market broke 20 ,000 on the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ 100, I believe, broke 20 ,000. That was a day that we had a record high in Netflix, Amazon, Google, Apple, and Meta. Can you imagine that? Not 52-week highs, but record highs. So these are real numbers, real money being put to work. really, you know, while the valuations seem to be a bit frothy, people are paying them, right? It feels like today's highs, tomorrow's low. I mean, that's the way it is.

6:30If everybody's been sitting around not wanting to pay top dollar for these stocks and not wanting to pay record highs, well, they've missed the boat. They've missed that whole year. That's why I always say there's no bad time to buy this market. Think about that. We've seen Nvidia. We've seen Nvidia go, you know, go off the charts. Every one of these pullbacks we've seen in 2024 has been a screaming buying opportunity for tech, for so many different sectors and stocks on the exchange. So anyway, the last couple of weeks, obviously, we did a little bit of a flatline here, okay? So look, eight times out of eight, now it's nine times out of nine when you've had a presidential election cycle, right?

7:08You've got a nice rally into the election, a bit of a follow-through rally the couple days after the election, a sort of flatline with a slight pullback until November 22nd. Then you see a nice rally into the Black Monday, Black Friday of Thanksgiving. This year we had amazing Amazon and nationally we had the greatest Thanksgiving season of all time. And then a little bit more of a bit of a flatline into middle December and then Santa Claus rally into the end of the year. That's happened eight times out of eight times within the presidential political cycle and this time it happened the ninth time.

7:40So that was that little bit of a flatline we saw last week until Friday when we had those economic numbers, the payroll numbers that came in that were right in line, if not better than year over year, and the market loved it. And we closed on last Friday, a week ago at record highs across the board in every indices. Then we came in on Monday. We came in on Monday and the market pulled back a little bit because NVIDIA, the Chinese government attacked NVIDIA for monopoly practices, right? And that took NVIDIA down and it took the baby out with the bathwater and it knocked the whole market down. Look, the bears have been sitting in their caves dying and waiting to come out and they've only been able to come out seven times this year.

8:21They've been sitting there with their Pepsi slushies and their Doritos dying to come out. Every time they came out, they came out in April, came out in July, came out in August, came out for small bits of time, maybe a day, a two, a week. They've been rebuffed by way stronger bullish markets after the fact and they kept saying, I told you so, I told you so, but that never came to fruition right and once again monday tuesday this week they were seeing it one more time like okay i told you this is going to happen yet it didn't happen because monday wednesday cpi number came in and it was right in line 3.3 three point read just what the market expected and the market rallied and once again closed at record highs up 55 handles on wednesday thursday sort of anemic at best probably a little bit of a sell-off because the ppi number was disappointing but what did that mean that was where bad news equals good news that negative data that came out is what's going to probably give that last bit of powder for the fed to cut interest rates in next week's meeting it's a beautiful thing so that's probably what's probably going to catalyze the santa claus rally that will bring us in at the end of this year over the next two weeks into a record close for 2024.

9:30that's how i see it you know what look i can I may be wrong, I've been wrong before, there could be something that completely dislocates this whole story in a big way, but I don't see it happening that way. This week was extraordinary in so many ways. We did have the soon-to-be President of the United States come down to the floor of the exchange, first president since Bush I that came down, and the most notable was Ronald Reagan who came down on March 28th, 1985, which is the first day that the Einstein and Wall Street got a job on the floor of the exchange. That was the first day I got down here and what a day it was.

10:03What an amazing time, an amazing life it's been for me. He came down to the floor, security was absolutely insane. He gave a speech up in the boardroom. Apparently, the US has these reserves of petroleum. We are most of our oil partners throughout the world are not our friends, right? Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia. So we have these petroleum reserves in the hundreds of millions, perhaps hundreds of billions of barrels of oil that we need in gasoline that we need in case of a confrontation. Well, now Mr. Trump announced down here on the floor of the exchange that we are going to create a reserve in Bitcoin in the same mindset.

10:43Right. Besides the fact that he announced that we are going to be the kingdom of crypto. Now we are going to have a prudent reserve of Bitcoin in the U.S. basis of the U.S. economy. That's a cool idea, right? So if you're in that name, then that's probably going to give it a little bit of boost. I think it did. It probably helped take it off to 100 ,000 a coin where we live right now. He then did come down to the floor. He did ring the bell. You know, he talked about a number of different things, tariffs in China, blah, blah, blah. But the people that showed up for him were as extraordinary CEOs of all the biggest brokerage firms, Goldman Sachs and whatnot.

11:19You know, Bill Ackman, CEO of some of the largest hedge funds in the world. Vice President was here. So look, unfortunately, I thought it was going to make the market pop, but it did not do that at all. The market kind of faded into the day and yesterday. Was that yesterday? That was yesterday. And then today we had a little bit of green on the open because we had some economic data. It was reasonable, nothing that exciting. And we closed out the week. Probably, I don't know, net, I think we were up on the week. We closed down six handles. You know, the Dow has been under a lot of pressure, probably just one or two individual stocks.

11:50But where does that leave us? That leaves us with the Fed meeting next week. My gut is, it's 88 % chance we're going to cut interest rates. Anyway, I'm out of breath. I got to get out of here. It's been like the longest month for a week I've ever seen. I love you all. Bing, bong, Shotzi, have a great weekend. Trade like Einstein, Money News Network. Shout out to my beautiful friend, Nicole Lappin, who's on maternity leave. May she give birth to a beautiful, healthy child. And we love you all. And that's all I got to say about that. Hold on to your wallets. Money Rehab will be right back. And now for some more Money Rehab.

12:32Now, here's Peter's conversation with Dan Ives. Hey, everybody. It's me, the on-site wall street. From the balcony at the New York Stock Exchange, we are sporting, even though he is, as per the New York Post, the best dressed man on Wall Street. We are sporting the same kind of duds. We got cool sneaks. He's got some cool colors. I got my recalls thing going on. We got a very cool hitty. You know why we do this? We want to be accessible to the general public so that we can share with you everything we know about tech, the volatility, earnings, the stock market, and the New York Stock Exchange.

13:03Thank you for joining me today, sir. Great to be here. You are the man. So let's go back. Yesterday, obviously, we had Mr. Trump here on the floor, the first president since Bush won. And then obviously the most notable visit was Mr. Reagan. That was the first day I actually worked on Wall Street. It was March 28th, 1985. And it was wild and crazy here back then that we had 8 ,000 people on the floor then working here. So you can imagine when the president come and then we had, there wasn't as much security because you didn't need that much security back then. Bush won though, we did do. There was an old prank that used to happen always on the floor of the stock exchange when a celebrity or a dignitary would come down.

13:38somebody when they were engaged in a conversation and overwhelmed by the room someone would come up behind them and dance their shoes with baby powder right and everyone on the floor would start banging their feet saying it's snowing in new york they would suddenly look down and see baby powder all over their shoes we even did it to the president anyway yes it was extraordinary that was one of our greatest clues the only one who actually got upset was i think he was an italian uh uh uh someone in the foreign service for Italy, he was wearing purple patent leather velvet shoes and we doused him with the baby powder.

14:12He was probably never able to wear those shoes again. Anyway, let's get down to business. Yesterday, Mr. Trump was here. He talked about a couple of things. He talked about setting up, you know that the U.S. has a prudent reserve for petroleum, right, in case of war, in case of any kind of a problem. We've got hundreds of, I think hundreds of billions of barrels or millions of barrels of oil on reserve in case of a war, in case of a confrontation. at some point because you all know that a majority of the nations that are oil producing nations are not our friends venezuela iraq iran and saudi arabia the law and russia of course the largest producers so yesterday he did say that he was going to set up a prudent reserve for bitcoin right which is obviously extraordinary and i think it's probably given a little bit of the boost to bitcoin since the same day that microstrategy adds in the asdaq one time exactly isn't that extraordinary that came this morning yeah right and then yesterday he announced the the prudent reserve of bitcoin what does that mean that means that the u.s as a nation there are 25 million bitcoin that he is going to start collecting bitcoin and we're going to hold it on as a nation as part of our uh economy so that should be a cool thing and i think now do more this is going to be the big question on next year do more public companies right start to not as aggressively micro strategy but do they start to put at least a percentage of what they have in treasury right from the cash in bitcoin in bitcoin so we know like apple's got hundreds of millions of dollars in cash and a lot of public companies obviously how do they end up just just uh displaying our earnings or whatever whatever the word is i can't giving out earnings is by having cash on hand some hold cash it was one of the problems back in the day that everyone was saying why is Apple holding so much cash, right?

15:56Why don't they give some back to the shareholders? Anyway, not what we're talking about today. So that's fascinating. So yes, MicroStrategy, Mike Saylor, Mike Saylor's company, obviously is one of the largest holders, I think all their holdings are in Bitcoin. I mean, and they continue to raise capital, convertible by Bitcoin. So their view is basically, this is really going to become just a full Bitcoin play. Remember, MicroStrategy is still data analytics. It's a real company, but the way that this company is now being valued is really as a Bitcoin derivative. Okay, so if you are looking for exposure to the Bitcoin game and you don't have$100 ,000 to buy in a coin, there are other ETFs, I believe Beto, that trades here on the floor.

16:44Obviously, Mara is one, and obviously MicroStrategy. It's expensive. It's trading for hundreds and 400 bucks, I think, to share. But if you believe Bitcoin, which we do, if you believe Bitcoin could be 250, 300, go to a million, whatever. Then you'll see more and more bet on microstrategy as a derivative play. As a derivative play. In terms of playing that matter. So that's exciting. Take heed of that, right? That's coming from the man who knows everything about derivative play. We've heard about that as respect to AI and the derivative plays that are respect to doing. I was getting those NASDAQ 20 ,000 hats, right?

17:19I mean, the point is like - You've been, let's think. When we started having this Einstein and Ives conversation, you said two things to me. Get your 20 ,000 NASDAQ hats out, and there's gonna be a six in front of the S &P by the end of the year, and you have been boom, shaka-laka right on that, both of them, amazing. Look, and I think - He's not just another pretty face, forget about it. No, but I think it also speaks to like the market now I'm just starting to realize that AI, it's just starting to multiply. Because we always talk about for every dollar spent on video chip, eight to$10 multiplier across the rest of tech.

17:58Now you're starting to see some of that in terms of software, infrastructure, and build outs. And that's going to be in the second, third derivative of other companies. Give us a couple of... Look, if someone said to you Avago, if you get Broadcom. AVGO, right. Look what that stock's done today. So it's showing you that this second, third, fourth derivative, it's not just about MAG7 infrastructure, in terms of the chip ecosystem, in terms of software, names like Salesforce, of course, Palantir and others. And then the consumer AI revolution that goes to Apple. Which is why we've out. Right, and didn't they just say they're putting ChatBGVT into the iPhone?

18:40Exactly. So that's the first step to ultimately what's going to be hundreds of apps that are built on an Apple device that are going to be AI driven. Extraordinary. So the revolution that Dan has been talking about for months now is actually happening. We are in the midst of it. We started eight months ago in the second inning of this game. Now we're probably in the third inning. In terms of the party, it started off at 9 p.m. in that party. And now it's 10 p.m. 10 p.m. In a party that goes to 4 a.m. Okay. And as… Who's invited to this party? Now, go look. Now, Software, Benioff, they were waiting.

19:18Their name wasn't on the list. Two weeks ago, without earnings, Velvet Ropes, they got with… They got into the party. Now they're on the Danforth with Jensen, they're on there with Musk and others. Software is starting to get invited. So now we're going to see more and more tech players get invited to that party. And that's how this broader rally continues to spread. And again, with Trump in the White House, deregulation, finally early Christmas or Hanukkah present, Khan out at the FTC. That means more and more deal-making is going to happen. That's why it just continues to be what I view it during the second year of what I view as ultimately a five - to six-year bull market.

19:57It's so extraordinary. So think about it. When Dan and I were talking a couple of weeks before the election, we were talking about what is the market? How is the market? Look, that was everybody's question. How is the market going to respond to a Kamala presidency or a Trump presidency? And obviously, look, I believe that this administration, whether Kamala had anything to do with it or not, has to take full credit for where the market is today, right? Mr. Trump cannot take any credit for where we are today, trading at record highs across every indice, some of the best four years, right? We know it.

20:27COVID, up 20%. 21, up 28%. 22, down double digits. We know that. It was a function of inflation and the interstate story. 23 and 24, now up 27%. So this administration has, obviously, is responsible for that incredible market across absolutely every indices. But we were talking about what does it look like on either side, depending on who wins this election. Your question was that, you know, look, a continuation of the past four years, if that goes forward, if Kamala becomes president, then that's not a bad thing. Our fear was with Trump coming in was obviously tariffs in China, right? And you said to me, initially, we both agreed that that was the wild card that could cause a problem.

21:10Go ahead. And I think to that point, he right away, and again, having Musk at his side is very important too, because some of that rhetoric now has been toned down to where you'll have tariffs. But in terms of impacting the chip trade, AI revolution, Apple, Tesla, it's not going to happen. And the deregulation is a huge problem. Because now you look at, like, from FTC to what we're seeing in terms of, you know, I think across the beltway. That was probably the biggest limiting factor to maybe tech over the coming years. So just to break that down to somebody who doesn't know really what Dan is talking about, A couple of things.

21:53FTC, the people who are the regulators out here, are ousted by Mr. Trump, and you're going to have people more friendly to M &A. So we are going to see a lot more mergers and acquisitions. Number two is, by bringing Elon Musk into the inner circle of the Trump family, you are sort of padding, you're carving out any potential disaster. Look, you're not going to have Mr. Musk in the inner circle representing Tesla, and the other Mag 7 are going to now be protected, a carve-out around those companies, because you know he's not going to raise himself up in Tesla and let everybody all fall by the wayside.

22:29By having him in there in the inner circle, that's going to carve out a protection mode for all the rest of the Mag 7 and tech and AI. And autonomous. Right, which has not been accepted that well. That's been the wild card. today like i think like in switzerland like they just actually like said like you they actually proved autonomous right now so we're gonna not be in norway and scandinavia in a few weeks like the point is like you're now gonna see around the world autonomous that's something that's and i could argue that that continues to be by the best use case of ai for tesla i think autonomous is worth a trillion dollars alone so think about it what was the one thing that took Tesla down to$350 about four weeks ago was the meeting they had about the autonomous cars that was not received well.

23:23They knocked Tesla down$70 at that point and it sat there for three or four weeks. Remember that? We talked about it. And I said to you, what's going on with Tesla? Is it going to come out of this dull drums? And you said, don't worry, earnings are next week. People are going to get on board with the autonomous vehicle story. And they did. Once number two, number three for Dan Oives, because earnings did come out. The stock went up$13 after hours,$50 the next day, and it's up$100 since then. But that's also because of the bears. Just because the bear - Where are the bears? Bears, are there any bears here?

24:00The problem is because the bears wearing their fleece and their sleeves. Right. They can't - Full body suits. They can't find AI in the spreadsheet. Right. And I think it just comes down to like, what's gonna happen more and more in tech, you're gonna see across all different subsectors streets still massively underestimating what I believe you know AI is gonna do the fundamentals. Okay so where does that leave us? That leaves us in the midst of a revolution the second third inning of an amazing ballgame that's all about tech AI gents and best-of-breed it's also you're talking about four o 'clock and a party that's going to 10 p.m.

24:38and a party that's going till 4 a.m. with yet a lot the derivatives of the ai story microsoft google amazon have yet to be let in through the red rubs and there i don't expect that 4am it's a crashing the party because because now it's like you're not the leverage is not in the system you have six trillion right of money still in money on the side imagine that still on the side that's why i'm not a believer if you go back to dot-com Bob, okay? You had the average tech company training about 30 times revenue. Okay. Today, it's 30 times earnings. Right. I'm just trying to explain, like, this is what, I believe this, I'm not, we're gonna definitely have some dips.

25:20Right. As we've seen. Like, Tokyo Black Flats, Black Monday, you have it five or six times. But the opportunities will be there again. I think we sit here a year from now being like, another market year in terms of tech, because it's a fourth industrial revolution. You're building, you just got back from Dubai, you're building Dubai, Vegas, from the ground up, from a technology perspective. So look, how exciting is this? It's absolutely unbelievable to think about what Dan is talking about, this amazing revolution. And look, at the end of the day, I kind of blocked my train of thought, but look, at the end of the day, now, come on, bring it back, Pete, where are you?

26:02you know what i'll just keep going um no but but it does speak to like as you were saying like where we are like when we're talking about things like dubai or vegas ground up right choose the amount of infrastructure energy derivative plays and now con done in the ftc deal making walks okay so whatever i wanted to remember that that's a great part of this story but at the end of the day also think about it this market if you had seven fingers on your hand that is the amount of times I'm a seven finger hand like like Bruce Almighty remember that great scene in in that funny movie at the end of the day we've had seven opportunities this year look this market is a 27 % for the year we've had seven times this year where you've had where the major the mainstream media has called recession depression dogs and cats living together all that craziness right we saw it in April right after the best quarter since 2019 we saw in July for about a 7 percent pullback for the first week there we saw it on August 5th right which was that devastating day we came in on a Monday after Black Monday in Japan with all that story the carry-on trade we've talked about it many times then September the first week the worst week for Texans COVID the second week the best week for Texans COVID October 5th so that is about six or And then this week, we had two days where the market came off its highs last Friday, record highs across all the indices.