In short
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong discusses what happens to U.S. crypto regulation after Congress failed to advance the Clarity Act, why regulatory clarity is still coming, and how crypto (especially Bitcoin and stablecoins) could reshape finance and payments.
Guest backgrounds
Brian Armstrong is CEO and co-founder of Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange and the first crypto company in the S&P 500. He invested heavily in the Clarity Act. Host is Nicole Lapin, a financial media personality.
Key claims
The Senate may revisit the Clarity Act, but regulators (SEC and CFTC) will publish rules under existing authority. Bitcoin should be a small portfolio allocation (about 1% to 10%, starting near 1%). Stablecoins enable near-instant, low-cost global payments and can pay “rewards” backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries. Offshore crypto growth (Armstrong cites ~80% trading offshore) risks U.S. “soft power” and financial leadership.
Notable examples
FTX as an offshore consumer-harm case; USD Coin (USDC) for payments; Coinbase’s stablecoin rewards debate; using Bitcoin as mortgage collateral via Better; Bitcoin’s four-year cycle leading to a $400,000 target by 2030; tokenized equities and “agentic finance” (AI agents managing accounts).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOImplications of the Clarity Act
0:00 to 1:14
Brian discusses the implications of the Clarity Act and its bipartisan efforts.
“If you're a small business, the right hire can be make or break.”
Implications of the Clarity Act
1:18 to 2:29
Brian discusses the implications of the Clarity Act and its bipartisan efforts.
“Then this is a job for Indeed-sponsored jobs.”
Implications of the Clarity Act
4:04 to 4:50
Brian discusses the implications of the Clarity Act and its bipartisan efforts.
“Brian Armstrong, welcome to Money Rehab.”
Bitcoin's Future and Investment Advice
4:50 to 6:23
Exploring Bitcoin's potential and investment strategies for newcomers.
“But even if the Senate doesn't decide to act, the regulators have made clear that they're willing to move forward under their existing authority to publish clear rules for crypto.”
Impact of Crypto on Financial Systems
6:23 to 8:21
Brian explains how crypto is transforming the financial landscape.
“The second thing is that crypto is not just about Bitcoin anymore.”
Regulatory Framework and Consumer Protection
8:21 to 11:52
Discussion on the regulatory roles of the SEC and CFTC in crypto protection.
“And that's why it's important that we get this built here in America.”
America's Financial Leadership and Future Risks
11:52 to 14:00
Brian emphasizes the importance of maintaining U.S. financial leadership in crypto.
“I think everybody can 100 percent get on board with that.”
The Importance of Clear Crypto Regulations
14:00 to 18:40
Learn why clear regulatory frameworks are crucial for the U.S. to maintain its financial leadership in crypto.
“So now it just means we have to focus on the second path.”
Ethics in Crypto Legislation
18:40 to 20:24
Explore the ethical implications of the President's family involvement in crypto while discussing regulations.
“But I think a lot of people are also confused and there were some new updates to the bill as well around the president's involvement in crypto.”
Stablecoins and Banking Competition
20:24 to 24:38
Delve into the conflict between stablecoins and traditional banks regarding rewards and deposits.
“You alluded to stable coins and the beef there with the banks.”
Show all 21 chapters
The Debate Over Regulation and Innovation
24:38 to 28:00
Understand the nuances of how crypto regulation impacts innovation and competition in the financial sector.
“You know, Coinbase is actually powering stablecoin integrations for many of the largest banks as well.”
Competing in Crypto: A Level Playing Field
28:00 to 29:50
Learn about the importance of competition in the crypto market and regulatory clarity.
“What they should do is just compete, compete on the level playing field.”
Democratizing Financial Services Worldwide
29:50 to 32:06
Discover how Coinbase is expanding access to financial services globally through tokenization and educational efforts.
“And so every year you just kind of have to be persistent and you want to be an educational resource.”
The Future of Payments: Agentic Finance
32:06 to 34:08
Explore the concept of agentic finance and how AI may change financial transactions in the future.
“On our stock or Bitcoin or what do you mean?”
Bitcoin Price Predictions and Market Cycles
34:08 to 36:42
Understand the historical patterns of Bitcoin prices and predictions for future growth.
“crypto company, we've got a lot of room to run.”
Using Bitcoin for Mortgages: A New Approach
36:42 to 39:59
Learn how Coinbase allows Bitcoin to be used as collateral for mortgages, enhancing financial options.
“And if people just go Google, you know, Bitcoin for your four year cycle or something like that, they could probably find some different thoughts people have on it.”
Stablecoins: A Solution for Payments
39:59 to 42:00
Discover the role of stablecoins in the financial system and how they can facilitate payments.
“I think that would be good for the world.”
The Growing Role of Stablecoins
42:00 to 43:56
Discover how stablecoins are evolving in payments and finance.
“And so that's a pretty cool feature as well, where not every merchant in the world obviously accepts stablecoins yet.”
Impact of Legislation on Crypto
43:56 to 46:22
Explore how recent legislation affects Coinbase and stablecoin usage.
“like that happens in the way that people move money around the world?”
Navigating Crypto Cycles
46:22 to 49:59
Learn strategies for managing investments in volatile crypto markets.
“So that's what we'll do in the wake of the Clarity Act.”
Psychology of Investing
49:59 to 51:40
Understand the psychological factors influencing investment decisions.
“And that's a thing that I'm really bullish on with the AI is not as emotional as us.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Nicole Lapin:If you're a small business, the right hire can be make or break. Hoping the right people see your job posting isn't the best growth strategy. When the pressure is on and you need the right hire, this is a job for sponsored jobs. Indeed, sponsored jobs gets you quality candidates when you need them most. Stop struggling to get your job post even seen on other sites. Sponsored jobs boosts your job post in search results so you can reach the people that can help your business thrive. Plus, with Indeed Sponsored Jobs, you only pay for results. People are finding quality hires on Indeed right now. In the minute I've been talking to you, companies like yours made 27 hires on Indeed, according to Indeed data worldwide.
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1:21Nicole Lapin:Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring now? Then this is a job for Indeed-sponsored jobs. Here's a stat that really stuck with me. Sales teams spend up to half their time on admin, not selling, not building relationships, not closing deals, on admin. And that got me thinking, what if you could get that time back? That's where today's sponsor, Pipedrive, comes in, an intelligent AI-powered sales CRM loved by growing sales teams. With their new pre-meeting brief, Pipedrive automatically pulls deal history, email records, and previous conversations into one place ready for you before every call.
2:01Nicole Lapin:During the call, it also takes notes so you can stay in the conversation. Afterward, it drafts the CRM updates for you to review and approve. Less admin, more selling. Switch to a CRM built by salespeople for salespeople and join the over 100 ,000 companies already using Pipedrive. My link gets you an exclusive 30 days free instead of the usual 14 day trial. No credit card or payment needed. Just head over to Pipedrive.com slash MNN to get started. That's Pipedrive.com slash MNN as in Money News Network. And you can be up and running in minutes. 80 % of crypto trading has actually moved offshore because the U.S.
2:45is a bit late on this. If the U.S. doesn't kind of get clear rules out soon, the future of financial services goes outside the United States. It's essentially a loss of American soft power.
2:55Nicole Lapin:Brian Armstrong is the CEO and co-founder of Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the U.S. and the first crypto company to crack the S &P 500. He joins Money Rehab on the day the Clarity Act is being voted on. That's a bill he's invested millions of millions of dollars in to see pass. It's disappointing that the Senate didn't vote for it after so much bipartisan work went into it. The reality is that regulatory clarity is coming for crypto either way. Why he thinks Bitcoin could reach$400 ,000. If you look at the history of Bitcoin, it tends to go through these four year cycles. If it follows a similar pattern again, I could see a path for us to 3x its prior all time high by 2030.
3:33Nicole Lapin:Whether or not you can use your Bitcoin to buy a house. Bitcoin was the best performing asset class of the last decade. I don't want to sell my Bitcoin. I'm bullish on it long term. I want to use it as collateral to see if I can get a better rate on a mortgage. What kind of regulation crypto will be getting in the future and why we should care. If you want me to go out on a limb and make a wild prediction, if the U.S. doesn't get these clear rules soon enough, this industry will... I'm Nicole Lapin, the only financial expert you don't need a dictionary to understand. It's time for some Money Rehab.
4:13Nicole Lapin:Brian Armstrong, welcome to Money Rehab. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it. Well, you're here on a really, really big day. This is a day that we just got word like five seconds ago that Congress failed to move forward with the Clarity Act, which has been your baby for years and has massive, massive implications on how crypto is classified. How are you feeling? Well, obviously, you know, it's disappointing that the Senate didn't vote for it after so much bipartisan work went into it. But the reality is that regulatory clarity is coming for crypto either way. I mean, the Senate, by the way, they might revisit it here in a week or two.
4:47There's still some negotiation happening. There could be another vote. But even if the Senate doesn't decide to act, the regulators have made clear that they're willing to move forward under their existing authority to publish clear rules for crypto. So the SEC and the CFTC in this case are both very much wanting to see clear rules for crypto in America. And that's something we've wanted for a long time, too. So we're going to get it either way. It's important because, you know, we want to have consumer protection. We want to make sure that bad actors can't use crypto for something. We want crypto to benefit everyone around the world and update the financial system, which 80 % of Americans say is out of date.
5:22It doesn't work for them. It's too slow. It's too expensive. And so we've got to get this right here in America.
5:28Nicole Lapin:Why should a person, why should a newbie investor with like 500 bucks in their Bitcoin care about any of this? Everybody's just thinking about how do I create financial freedom? How do I build wealth over time to benefit my family and myself and my future generations? And so, you know, there's lots of historical advice that people can can go to on this with financial advisors and they can try to build the classic portfolio of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds or something like that. And what we've realized over time is that, you know, people need to diversify a little bit more than that. Bitcoin was the best performing asset class of the last decade, even with the volatility.
6:06And I'd say most financial advisors at this point, they say that anywhere from 1 % to 10 % of people's portfolios should probably be in Bitcoin as an example. So that's step one. It's part of every diversified portfolio out there to help people build wealth over the long run. The second thing is that crypto is not just about Bitcoin anymore. It's also helping people update all aspects of the financial system, including payments. So we mentioned stablecoins before. We now have a clear regulatory framework and law in the United States to have these digital dollars. And they're backed one to one by dollars sitting in a bank account or in short term treasury bills.
6:45So they're very safe. And what they allow people to do is make fast, cheap payments anywhere in the world. you know why doesn't money move at the speed of information right we're all used to using text messaging or whatsapp and you can send a message anywhere in the world it arrives within one second it's basically free why doesn't money move like that you know banks are closed over the weekend and on holidays right when you have actual time to go in there and and talk to them every time you swipe your credit card at a merchant you may not see it directly but they're paying 2 % to 3 % in fees for that.
7:19And that fee gets passed on to you as the consumer. So it matters to you as well. There's lots of people who are trying to send money home to their family overseas, and they're paying 5 % to 10 % in remittance fees. So payments should flow at the speed of information. And stablecoins now allow that. So you can actually send, for instance, USD coin, or USDC is the largest regulated stablecoin. And you can send it anywhere in the world for less than one second and less than one cent. So it's starting to move money at the speed of information, which is great. And then, you know, we can talk about all the other areas that crypto is updating, whether that's borrowing and lending, making that getting an instant answer on a loan or a better rate.
7:59It's working on things like prediction markets. It's making things like tokenized equities to help the 4 billion people in the world who don't have access to any kind of brokerage account. How do we make sure that they can get access to high quality investments, build their portfolios. And for people here in the U.S. to be able to trade 24-7 or easily send a share of stock to your friends and family. So these are all examples of how crypto is updating the financial system. And that's why it's important that we get this built here in America.
8:26Nicole Lapin:Yeah. And I want to definitely dig into all of that. But let's double click on your first point for a second. What percentage of someone's portfolio do you think should be in crypto? I'd say as part of a diversified portfolio, a lot of wealth managers, and I would agree with this, are now saying anywhere from like 1 % to 10 % should be in Bitcoin. I think it's anti-correlated with other things you might have in your portfolio. Like if let's say that there's high inflation, people are worried about that, or government spending, people tend to rally to Bitcoin in times of uncertainty like that. So it's an important part of any diversified portfolio at this point, I'd say.
9:04Nicole Lapin:I'd say maybe 1%. It's been pretty correlated lately. Well, it's been correlated to stocks recently, you know, it goes through different periods, but sometimes it's correlated with stocks. Sometimes it's not. You know, generally, if interest rates go up, Bitcoin price will go down and the opposite. But all around the world, we're seeing democracies kind of struggle with deficit spending and printing too much money. And when that happens, we see Bitcoin go up. So maybe more on the 1%, maybe you're closer to the 10%, it sounds like. Start with 1 % and see how you feel about it. Fair. And yeah, learn more.
9:41I'd say that's a good place to start.
9:42Nicole Lapin:Let's double click on the second part because I want to break it down very simply, even though it sounds cuckoo wonky with all of the Clarity Act stuff. There are different watchdog agencies, right, looking over different kinds of investments that people make. So right now, major coins, Bitcoin, you mentioned Ethereum are classified as commodities. Commodities have the CFTC over them. That's the less stringent agency compared to stocks that have like the big bad SEC watching over them. But there's now some confusion, right, over other coins. So right now, Brian, if I buy crypto, who is actually protecting me?
10:18So you're right. The CFTC regulates commodities like gold and oil and now Bitcoin and Ethereum. The SEC regulates what are called securities, which are basically stocks. And there's been a lot of debate about which one crypto assets fall into. And the reality is you can do both. So Bitcoin, Ethereum, they're decentralized, kind of like gold. There's no one country or company that controls it. And so they are really commodities. I think in the future, we'd like to see a clear framework. And this is what the regulators are now, I think, going to publish rules on about how companies could raise money with crypto assets.
10:52And those would be securities under the SEC. So there's a role for both agencies. And the way you characterized it was the CFTC is lighter touch. The SEC is big and bad. I think if you asked the CFTC, they would say we are a very serious and rigorous regulator. And I would agree with that. So I think they're both very important and serious and have an important role to play. Honestly, even at the state level in the US, there's a there's a money transmission license. You know, we can go down the alphabet soup if you want, even just under like unfair deceptive practices act. And like there's lots of rules in the US that if you issue or create a product that harms people, you're liable for it.
11:31And so the U.S. has very strong protections against this already. Where people have gotten in trouble in the past is where U.S. people have kind of used these offshore, unregulated platforms. You probably have heard of some of them, you know, FTX and things like that, that blew up and did cause consumer harm. And that's why I think it's important to have these companies be built in the U.S. under U.S. regulatory perimeter and U.S. law.
11:54Nicole Lapin:Yeah, for sure. I think everybody can 100 percent get on board with that. I think the question is like crypto, obviously$2 trillion. This SEC has$2 billion budget. The CFTC has like 500 people down 21 percent from last year,$365 million budget. So I'm just saying it's much smaller. And so what people who were criticizing this bill were saying was that they needed to be with the bigger dog, not the smaller dog. Yeah, that's fair. The CFTC does have a smaller budget. They have a narrower scope. I think they're just as serious on the scope that they do regulate. But it's important to note that in the Clarity Act, there was a very clear role for both the SEC and the CFTC.
12:37So I would disagree with the characterization that it was trying to give more of the responsibility to the CFTC. I actually think it was very balanced on that.
12:44Nicole Lapin:If a regular person, though, if we bring it back to earth gets scanned under this bill or what the actual regulations look like without the bill, do they have less protection than if they get ripped off by a stock? I mean, you mentioned FTX, for example. That's what people are really nervous about. So I think it's important to distinguish there's no investment return without risk. So it's not that these regulators, in my understanding, are trying to get rid of all risk. That wouldn't make sense because then there would be no real returns or upside. But what they do want to get rid of is fraud and people misrepresenting something or failing to make adequate disclosures.
13:23So investors should have all the information in front of them that's true to make a good investment decision. And then it's up to them to decide how much risk they want to take. And, you know, I think that's an appropriate balance and distinction to make.
13:38Nicole Lapin:You know, certainty is definitely needed here. and it keeps crypto in the United States instead of pushing it overseas. That's, I think, where everybody hands down agrees. And that's hard to do. So do you worry that the U.S. will lose dominance here? Am I worried about it for the U.S.? I mean, yes. I think that, again, we have two pathways to get there. So the Senate can either pass legislation or the regulators can publish clear rules. I think both are viable paths. So now it just means we have to focus on the second path. And there is a real risk, though, I think that if we don't get clear rules via one of those two paths in the US, that America will fall behind.
14:16I mean, one of the greatest strengths of America from, you know, creating jobs and tax revenue and economic growth is that we are a financial hub. We are the largest financial markets in the world exist in the United States, classically out of New York. Right. We have the deepest liquidity for people to raise money and our stock markets are kind of the envy of the world. And it's this great fuel for capitalism to help people start the next business, which hopefully grows the economy and tax revenue and pays for all the services that we need in our society. So without economic growth, a lot of things start to look worse off.
14:54Education, health care, deterring conflict with other countries, like all kinds of things, right? So I do think it's really critical that America stays as a financial leader and a technology leader. And crypto is really at the intersection of both of those. I would argue it's probably the most important technology updating the financial system writ large today. And so, yeah, the clear rules will ensure that these companies get built onshore under American regulatory purview so that folks don't get harmed. Like if someone wants to build a company offshore and attract customers from the U.S. or anywhere else and they do something bad, The U.S.
15:31government really has no authority to go after them in most cases, right? Whether you love crypto or hate crypto or whatever, it's like we got to have clear rules so that people don't get harmed. And it's better to have it under U.S. law than offshore in a way that we can't control, such as being built out of China or something like that.
15:46Nicole Lapin:Is there an actual cost that we can quantify around the lack of clarity, I suppose, pun intended, without clarity? Can we quantify that in dollars or even delayed innovation? For sure. I mean, just one stat is that something like 80 % of crypto trading has actually moved offshore already because the U.S. is a bit late on this. A lot of the biggest companies, famously FTX was founded out of Bahamas. Some of the other big ones are out of the UAE. In some ways, this lack of clear rules has done wonders for the economic development of foreign countries. You know, if you're one of the leaders of those foreign countries, you probably should be thrilled about this delay that the U.S.
16:30has encountered. But, you know, ultimately, the U.S. is the largest economy in the world, and they're going to be a major player in this. And I think with the regulators that we have now, they'll force some clear rules out that will hopefully allow a lot of this to be these funds to be repatriated. I mean, just imagine for a moment, like when the internet came out, what if the largest internet companies had been built overseas, right? I mean, I know sometimes people in the US, we have our gripes or quibbles with Google or Meta or, you know, the major internet companies, the Netflixes of the world that, you know, could they all could be doing something a little bit better.
17:07But I can tell you that when I go meet with governments overseas, we have different offices all over the world. We have served customers in 100 countries. They would kill to have these trillion-dollar companies. They drive so much economic growth, jobs, tax revenue, soft power in the world. They would kill to have these companies based out of their country. They all are running these innovation programs to try to think about how they can grow more startups and how can they get the next generation of companies. And the U.S. has this incredible gift that we have these things built here. Even if they're not perfect, we can always, you know, the benefits far outweigh the drawbacks.
17:47So the biggest concern here with crypto is if the U.S. doesn't get these clear rules soon enough, this industry will move offshore, just like most of the chips are created in Taiwan. The US invented a lot of that technology, but chip fabs are now mostly happening out of Taiwan. We're trying to repatriate it now. There's a massive effort underway to bring that manufacturing capability back on shore. Or the same thing happened with 5G, if you remember that. A lot of that technology, China got really good at it. And then it created all these kind of national security issues. And we had to make a huge effort to bring it back on shore.
18:23So if the U.S. doesn't kind of get clear rules out soon, which I think they will, that's the risk is that the future of financial services goes outside the United States. We don't have the ability to police bad actors. And it's essentially a loss of American soft power in the world. You could think of it that way.
18:41Nicole Lapin:But I think a lot of people are also confused and there were some new updates to the bill as well around the president's involvement in crypto. Do you think the president's family should be in the crypto business while he's signing law about it? I know that there was an ethics provision that was included in this bill, and that was something that was very important in the Senate. A lot of people on both sides of the aisle were actually debating that. It's a little above my pay grade. You know, I was focused more on the rules that would affect our customers. I don't feel like it's my place really to comment on what the Senate should or should not do there.
19:11But, you know, I was pleased to see that a really strong ethics provision did make it into the bill that the White House signed off on. It sounds like there was willingness to put that in the bill on all sides. And so I didn't see that as a major blocker.
19:24Nicole Lapin:Yeah, I think Republicans toughened it. Right. But it covered their spouses, the officials and then their spouses, but not their kids. So the question was, are his sons going to run the company? And so if the president steps back and his sons keep running it, does anything actually change? These are all these are all big open questions that people have to figure out, because on the one hand, I can see why someone could be influenced by what the children would do. But, you know, it's also like if you have adult children, they're their own person. You know, some people are not even in touch with their children.
19:56Right. So they may go generally in America, like if if one adult does something that, you know, untoward, it doesn't come back and affect the parent or something. So in some ways, how would you even force your adult children to do something different? Right. You don't really control them at that point. But these are complicated legal questions and even constitutional questions, I would say, about the checks and balances of power in the United States between the administration and Congress and the judicial branch as well.
20:23Nicole Lapin:OK, so definitely not something above your pay grade here. Let's dig into the big banks. You alluded to stable coins and the beef there with the banks. Some big banks, not all of them, are upset because they're worried that giving interest on stable coins is going to pull deposits out of the banking system. The banks wanted to ban people paying on stable coins. And then you tweeted MarkitUp back in May. So what changed here? And what would you want to say to the banks today after the news? You're right that earlier this year, there was a draft of the Clarity Act that had a number of challenges in it that one of them was rewards.
Read the full transcript
21:03But there was several others around tokenized equities and DeFi, et cetera, that I thought were non-starters. And so, you know, our overall goal is to try to make stand up for our customers rights and make crypto trusted and safe and easy to use in the United States. So we can just improve financial services, even if people don't know that they're using crypto, they can benefit from it. And so I felt that the first draft of that Clarity Act missed the mark. I did say that publicly. I'm proud that we stood up for our customers in that moment. they subsequently iterated on it. And the latest draft actually fixed all of the things that I mentioned in that post, including the stablecoin rewards, but also the DeFi, the tokenized equities.
21:42And I believe the last one was around spot market authority for the CFTC. But so, you know, it was definitely the bill was in a much, much better place. Now, just I guess to answer your question about stablecoin rewards, I just just zooming out for the average person here. I mean, our goal is that Americans should be able to earn more money on their money. Pretty simple. And that if you want to hold a stable coin, you could actually earn rewards, which is basically if the underlying dollars are stored in short-term US treasuries, which today pay 3 % to 4 % or so, why shouldn't consumers be able to benefit from that?
22:18Seems like a pretty logical thing. Some of the bank lobbying groups came out against this early on. And I think mainly the reason is competition. They just didn't want to have to compete with stable coins that were paying these higher rates. But they sort of ginned up a lot of fear out there about this somehow creating deposit flight from community banks. It was really the big banks who were pushing this behind the scenes. But of course, people don't have as much sympathy for the big banks as they're making record profits, et cetera. And so they sort of pinned it. They said, it's really for the community banks.
22:52So we did a bunch of research on this to try to see, is there any shred of truth to this or evidence? You know, my skepticism radar was up, but we actually commissioned some studies on this, which found as stable coins have grown, consumer bank deposits have also grown. There doesn't seem to be any correlation. The White House Council of Economic Advisors published their own report, which indicated that there was no correlation between these two things. And in fact, it would be a net harm to society to prevent rewards on stable coins. It kind of defies this simple logic. If you think about it, there's already things like money market funds, which people can put their money into and earn these rates on short-term treasuries.
23:33So money market funds are now like$7 trillion, yet plenty of people store their money in banks as well. And so it sort of defied credulity. And I think it was essentially misinformation published by the bank lobby to try to prevent their competition in the market. So in my view, that was an unethical thing. And most of the Senate got wise to this very quickly and realized what was happening. The last thing I'll just say, there was a couple things that came out at the last minute, which I think was the final nail in the coffin on this argument, which is, number one, we actually came out and said, we're going to provide technology to community banks to integrate stablecoins.
24:10Despite some of the negative reaction from a couple of the big banks, many of the banks, B &Y Mellon and Goldman Sachs and, you know, I think Citi and organizations like Fidelity and like some of the biggest financial institutions in the world came out in support of the Clarity Act, including the stablecoin rewards. And we actually came out and said, well, we're going to provide this technology to community banks if they want to integrate stablecoins. Because I want community banks to win. I want the big banks to win, even the ones who fought against it or lobbied against it. I want them to win too.
24:39You know, Coinbase is actually powering stablecoin integrations for many of the largest banks as well.
24:44Nicole Lapin:Help me understand, though. When I hold USDC on Coinbase, you pay me a reward. So is a reward the same as yield or interest? Is this a tomato-tomato situation? So this gets into lots of legal questions. But for the average person, what it means is that if you're storing a balance on Coinbase and underneath that, the dollars are being put into short-term treasuries that are earning 3.5 % or 4%, some of that can be passed back to you. We call it a reward in the sense that it's like a loyalty program. There's been various debates about the nuances between yield and interest and reward. Interest is something that people typically think of more in a bank account where the banks are doing something called fractional reserve.
25:31They're actually lending out your money underneath, even whether you know it or not, and they don't actually have all of your money there. And so they might pay you interest. So there's different legal definitions of these things. Just to make it super clear that it was not interest on deposits, we call it rewards. And it's just passing along some of the economic upside of where your dollars are being stored underneath.
25:52Nicole Lapin:Some of the banks that you mentioned, like Goldman, you did not mention JP Morgan. You've had some kerfuffles with our friend Jamie Dimon in particular. His beef essentially, or you tell me if I'm missing this, is that if a crypto platform walks like a bank and quacks like a bank, then it needs FDIC insurance and capital requirements and liquidity rules and all that jazz and the Clarity Act elect crypto. What would you say to Jamie today? Obviously, I can't speak for him. But what I would say is that, you know, we we believe in level playing field and we're not engaging in fractional reserve lending.
26:27That's what you need a bank license for. Part of the reason banks are so heavily regulated is it's very risky what they're doing. You know, they're lending out your money. And sometimes banks go insolvent, they go under, you know, we saw that with like Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank recently, people say, well, it's FDIC insured, okay, but that's only up to 250k. If people are storing more than that, they're not guaranteed to get that money back. And because banks engage in such risky behavior, that's why they have bank licenses. Stablecoin issuers, uh well certainly coinbase but we we're not an issuer of any stable coin stable coin issuers they don't do fractional reserve so under that genius act which is now the law of the land for stable coins um they're not allowed to do fractional reserve it's a is a 100 reserve so there's no such thing as like a run on the bank in in these regulated stable coins um the money is sitting in short-term u.s treasuries say less than 90 days so it's extremely liquid worst case scenario if everybody wanted to withdraw their stable coins or convert them back to dollars at the exact same moment, they could basically wait 90 days and have all of it back.
27:31Or in reality, there's a super liquid market for short term US debt like that. I think that at the end of the day, a couple of the big banks who happen to have key business lines around this, they frankly just didn't want the competition. And the part that bothered me was that I think they they really kind of went to the government to try to kill their competition. And to me, that's that shouldn't happen in America.
27:53Nicole Lapin:So who should they go to? It sounds like you guys had a little run in at Davos or something like that came to you directly. What they should do is just compete, compete on the level playing field. That's how consumers win in America. You shouldn't go to anyone to try to kill your competition. So I think that's that's not how the game works in the U.S. So the beef has been settled with Jamie. You're ready to hug it out. You know, I don't mind like a little, you know, heated rivalry. I posted like a funny meme about that. But, you know, the reality is We're working with JP Morgan on a variety of things.
28:22I like Jamie Dimon. I've learned a lot from him as a CEO. I think he's been incredibly successful. I don't like his stance on this one particular thing, but that doesn't stop me from overall having admiration for them and being willing to work with them as they've been very willing to work with us.
28:36Nicole Lapin:How does this affect Coinbase stock, if at all? Well, I haven't looked at our stock today. I try to think about these things over the long term. But first, I think we're on a clear path to get regulatory clarity in the US, either through the Senate or these regulators. One or the other, either one works for us. So I think that's going to be fine. But we're also an international company. So, you know, we have offices in the UK. We're the largest provider of crypto services in the UK. We operate out of Singapore for the Asia Pacific. We have an office or some folks in Brazil serving Latin America.
29:12We have an office in the UAE as well in the Middle East, where we've just started issuing for example, tokenized equities, which I think is important. So, you know, the 4 billion people in the world who don't have access to these, a brokerage account, they can actually trade US stocks. And we've started tokenizing US stocks to make them available 24 seven to people all over the world, as long as they have a smartphone. So we're going to keep democratizing access to financial services, making better financial services, both here in the US and abroad. And if there's one thing I've learned, you know, over the last 14 years, starting Coinbase, when we first started out, there was like zero clarity and people didn't even know what crypto was.
29:53And so every year you just kind of have to be persistent and you want to be an educational resource. And every year that I've run Coinbase, somewhere in the world, there's a country that's leaning in and they're ready to embrace it and you can kind of grow your business there. And then every country there's somewhere in the world that's leaning out and they're skeptical, they're not ready yet. And so you basically, and by the way, it keeps flipping. And so any given year, you basically grow your business in the countries that are welcoming it. You basically just try to maintain your business in the countries that are leaning out.
30:24And then you wait a few years and the governments and the attitudes change. And then you go grow in the ones that were reluctant previously.
30:32Nicole Lapin:How often do you check your stock? It's hard not to look at it every couple of days or so. I think it's dangerous actually to get too caught up in short-term stock price fluctuations. What you want to be doing is thinking about what can we be doing that is going to serve our customers better a week from now, a month from now, a year from now, and five years from now? The key things that they want are they want financial services that are simpler, that aren't filled with lots of complex jargon. They want an app that's simple and easy to use. So if you need to update your address or reset your password, it just works.
31:08Don't bother me with the details. They want to have a human being they can contact. Well, I should say, first, they want just to get an answer right away in the app, and they can talk to AI if they want. But they also want to, if they can't get their thing answered right away by AI, they want to be able to talk to a human anytime, 24-7. We offer that. They want to be able to trade every asset class, right? So it's not just about having a boring portfolio with an index fund or something. They are interested in having a balanced portfolio with some crypto assets, some stocks, some commodities, the ability to trade prediction markets in the same app and learn about what's going to happen next in the world.
31:47To have a financial advisor right in their phone and have like a modern day interface for that. And to be able to make payments all over the world instantly, you know, if they need to send money to friends and family. So these are the kinds of things that I try to focus on. And the stock price over the long term takes care of itself.
32:05Nicole Lapin:What do you think the long term prices? You said you have a long term. Do you have a number in mind? On our stock or Bitcoin or what do you mean? Well, I'd love to get into what it is for Bitcoin on your stock. Let's start there. Well, I think we're in very early days. You know, Coinbase is a 40 to 50 billion dollar company, depending on the day. I can see a path for us to 10x from here, which is just we're in the early days of a couple of really big cycles. You know, stable coins, it's still super early. We're seeing massive growth of that year over year. There's something in crypto trading called perpetual futures.
32:38We're in the very early days of that. And we've started to really grow our trading volume share on that. This is all in our part of our, you know, as a public company, you can read about it on our investor website and earnings. Prediction markets, we launched those recently, and they're growing really incredibly quickly. Something like 100 % every quarter recently, you can go look at our financials about that. And there's a big one on the horizon, which I would say is not really priced in yet, which is what we call agentic finance. So everyone is kind of trying to figure out in the world of AI, how are payments and financial services going to work?
33:13And so we're making it easy for anybody to connect their favorite chat AI agent into their Coinbase account if they want to manage it that way, including for trading and payments and all these things. We're also building the infrastructure for any AI agent to have its own financial account. And so we want to bank the AI agents, if you will. And I think there's going to be more AI agents than humans at some point in the not too distant future. And so I think I saw some recently some stat that stablecoin payment volume is now like 17 % of Visa's volume. So it's growing very rapidly. So I think that could be bigger.
33:49If you look at all GDP globally, about half of 1 % of it is flowing on crypto rails. So we're still in the very early days. It would not surprise me if that's 10, 20, 25 % in the coming years, kind of like the early adoption of the internet, how it spread eventually to half of the world. And so in that scenario, I think over the next 5, 10 years, Coinbase as the most trusted crypto company, we've got a lot of room to run.
34:16Nicole Lapin:So not so distant future means what, 2030? earlier than that, that agents will surpass humans? Yeah, I mean, it's always tough to predict the future. But I guess if I had to estimate, you know, some of these agents are ephemeral, right? They may only be up for five minutes, and then they shut down. So it's, it's going to be tough to get like an apples to apples comparison exactly. But I think one way you could look at it is the number of transactions taking place in the economy between agents and and between humans. Now, the average transaction size for agents might be much smaller. So I think then you would look at total transaction volume for agents versus humans.
34:59I mean, if you want me to go out on a limb and make a wild prediction, I think within certainly within five to 10 years, I think the agentic economy could be larger than the human economy in terms of payment volume. That would be an interesting thing to go see. Okay, let's keep with our crystal ball for a
35:16Nicole Lapin:moment and go into Bitcoin. You said that Bitcoin hits 400 ,000 by 2030. Is that still your price? I think I have said that publicly before. Yes, I would stand by that. I mean, it's at near 63 ,000 this summer, down by half of its high. Can you help me with the math? How do we back into the 400K number? Okay, so obviously, past performance does not predict the future or any of that. So these are all speculations, right? I mean, I think anybody who tells you they can perfectly predict these things, you shouldn't listen to, right? So this is just me hypothesizing. But yeah, I think if you look at the history of Bitcoin, it has been the best performing asset over the last 10 years or so.
35:56And it tends to go through these four-year cycles. I won't get into the details of this, unless you want to, but there's something about the supply of new Bitcoin that's created, which gets cut in half roughly every four years. And And what we see is there's periods of run up around those dates. We also see periods of contraction, which usually last about a year. This last cycle, it's been about a year so far. And it was down at 63. And now it's starting to tick back up. So if it follows a similar pattern again, I could see a path for us to get to, say, 3x its prior all-time high by 2030, something like that.
36:35Is it guaranteed? No, for sure. It's not. But I think that's a if it follows a similar pattern, you know, you could you could imagine that. And if people just go Google, you know, Bitcoin for your four year cycle or something like that, they could probably find some different thoughts people have on it.
36:50Nicole Lapin:Yeah. Some back of the napkin math. Bitcoin has to grow. Sounds like 50 percent a year on average for four years to get there. So that's 2030. You're staying with the 400 ,000 number. What about the end of this year? Oh, man. I mean, shorter term is much harder to predict. I would say, I don't know. I think my guess, again, these are all guesses. My guess is we've hit the bottom of this last cycle and that we could be trending up a little bit, I don't know, 80 to 90 or something like that by the end of the year. It's hard to say. And do you do any price targets or do you think about what the price target would be for other coins, Ethereum?
37:27In general, we don't publish price targets. You know, if you're asking me just for fun on a podcast, I don't mind riffing on it.
37:33Nicole Lapin:Let's riff. Love to get your thought. Like, where would you see Ethereum or Solana or XRP? I don't think I have such a clear thesis on that. And also, you know, we work with all the different chains out there. So I have to be a little bit careful. We're a neutral platform in terms of which blockchains we work with. And I probably will offend somebody no matter what I say on that. Bitcoin is considered more neutral, right? Because there's not a specific team behind it. But yeah, I'll decline to answer that one. Oftentimes, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana may move somewhat together. And like I said, my guess here is that we've hit the bottom of this current cycle a little bit earlier this year.
38:11But yeah, we'll see what happens by the end of the year. Hopefully it's up a bit. OK.
38:15Nicole Lapin:Something else that I wanted to ask you about was Bitcoin for mortgages. You have a product now that lets you use Bitcoin to buy a house. Why do you think like first time homebuyers should pledge Bitcoin instead of selling some of it to make a down payment? So we have lots of customers and probably many of your listeners have a little bit of Bitcoin and it's become a material part of their net worth. And so they were asking us, how can I use this as collateral to, you know, I don't want to sell my Bitcoin. I'm bullish on it long term as I am, but I want to use it as collateral to see if I can get a better rate on a mortgage to buy a home.
38:54And we partnered with a company called Better, which has a mortgage product. And we allowed people to pledge their Bitcoin as collateral to do that. So it's been a good success so far. We've had a number of people out there using it. I don't think we've disclosed the exact number publicly. But what's great is that you can get a very quick answer. You know, any of your listeners who've gone through the process of getting a mortgage, you know, in the old fashioned way, it can be a little bit of a difficult experience, right? There's lots of paperwork. There's insurance. There's appraisals. There's a lot of huge stacks of forms to sign.
39:31And it does feel a bit antiquated. And so I think Better has done a good job of making this product where you can get a pretty clear answer back relatively quickly about what rate you would get. And we've integrated with them to allow people to use their crypto assets. So it's just one more example of how crypto is helping update the financial system. And my hope is that anybody can actually just on their phone, you know, almost like put it in an address or take a picture of this house and like get a quote back within a few minutes with a with a fair and reasonable rate. I think that would be good for the world.
40:00Nicole Lapin:Should we also, though, clarify that, you know, volatility can hurt you to have coins drop, you still owe that higher rate. It seems risky to me. I get a little concerned for a first time buyer in that way. So who's the type of person that this actually works for? It's a relatively conservative loan to value ratio there. We don't want people to take any unnecessary risk with it. But obviously, like like any financial product, you know, read the read the terms closely. There's so much reading that you're assigning to us, Brian. We've got some S1s to read. We've got a lot of terms and conditions.
40:33Nicole Lapin:I want to, before we thank you for joining us on this really important day, stablecoins, you've talked about growing into this huge$300 billion plus market. It's become the part of crypto. It feels like to me, you tell me if I'm wrong, that both Washington and Wall Street actually got pretty comfortable with. So if I'm listening and I'm scared of crypto's volatility, what does a normal person actually do with one? How to get started? Well, you're right that stable coins are, as the name would indicate, they're not volatile. They're just linked to an underlying dollar that's held securely. But of course, you can get these rewards, which are attractive to many people.
41:14And then the other reason people want it is that they can make payments anywhere in the world. again, instantly less than one second, less than one cent to any country in the world. And there's no other payment rail that can actually do that, all three of those things. So the easiest way to get started is really just create a Coinbase account. And you can, from your debit card or your bank link, you deposit some dollars and convert it into stable coins. And now you're operating in this new economy that things are fast, cheap, and global. And so that's usually the best way for people to get started.
41:43We also offer Coinbase One Credit Card, for instance, which I think is the best card on the market. If people want to spend their crypto at various merchants and get rewards back that way, they can get up to 4 % back on every purchase and get it in stablecoins, in Bitcoin, and hopefully eventually in stocks or whatever other asset they want to save in. And so that's a pretty cool feature as well, where not every merchant in the world obviously accepts stablecoins yet. But if you have a Coinbase One card, you can spend your stablecoins. And from your point of view, it's great. Maybe eventually we'll be able to go convince that merchant to accept stable coins directly and benefit themselves as well.
42:20Nicole Lapin:I mean, right now, it seems like a lot of the volume is traders shuffling money between exchanges for stable coins. People aren't paying rent with it. When do you think that actually happens? What has to change there first? It tends to be with every new technology. The early adopters of it are people who have the highest unmet need, you might say, right? It's basically the people who have the biggest pain point. So actually, the biggest area of growth for stable coins has been business to business cross-border payments, which is kind of a mouthful. But what that basically means is there's somebody who's running their shop and they need to buy goods.
42:57Sometimes it's from another country like Asia or Europe. And this is a very antiquated, slow, underserved area of the market. And so they've actually been the biggest adopters of stable coins early on. there are people moving it between crypto trading venues and exchanges that that is true there's people using it in defi um there's actually one of the one another really big area of growth has been stablecoin backed credit cards you can see some of the graphs for that online that's been that's been growing really fast so yeah i think that um payments are kind of like water they flow to the path of least resistance and so stablecoins are just more efficient rails speed cost and and the number of countries they can reach.
43:38And so I would expect over the next five to 10 years, you're just going to see a larger and larger fraction of global GDP run on stablecoin rails. It's just better for everybody involved.
43:48Nicole Lapin:So in the next five to 10 years, I know I'm trying to get you to be a fortune teller, but if stablecoins become the default, when do you think something like that happens in the way that people move money around the world? And then what happens to traditional banks then? Yeah, well, I think that there's not going to be one moment where it happens. It'll be gradual. But I think stablecoins have been growing something like RITA5X over the last few years. And so they're growing quite quickly year over year. I think banks are going to integrate stablecoins. I mean, it's already happening. We're helping community banks do it.
44:20We're helping the biggest banks in the world do it by selling them technology solutions like custody and payment rails and APIs and things like that. So I think the banks are going to be major innovators and users of stable coins.
44:36Nicole Lapin:So here's what I'm curious about. The piece of the bill that threatened your USDC rewards just died with it. So in a strange way, today protected a massive Coinbase revenue line. How do you actually feel about that? It survives because the Genius Act for stable coins did pass through Congress last year. And actually, that act was even slightly more permissive than what was in the latest Clarity Act. So not only does it survive, it thrives under the existing law of the land. Yeah. I mean, you've spent, what, hundreds of millions, at least$100 million on this. With this disappointment today, what do you think is next?
45:19Well, we're going to keep showing up on policy and advocacy. Part of it, money definitely helps. We have an amazing team. We've donated to some groups like Fairshake that have helped elect pro-crypto candidates in different places around the world. But I think more and more impactful has actually been the grassroots movement. These organizations like StandWithCrypto.org, they've got millions of voters now who are raising their hands and saying they want clear rules in America for crypto. There's something like 50 million Americans who've used crypto at this point. So it's a massive voting block.
45:51And we're helping them get organized by funding groups like StandWithCrypto.org. People should go there if they want to help elect pro-crypto candidates or find out which of the representatives are pro or against crypto. So the answer is we're just going to keep doing what we've always been doing, which is standing up for our customers' rights, trying to get clear rules. We're not really deterred by short-term setbacks. Like I said, in every country of the world where we operate in any given year, there's someone who's leaning out, who's someone who's leaning in. We just have longevity and we keep showing up and eventually things get to the right place.
46:22So that's what we'll do in the wake of the Clarity Act. I think the regulators are going to publish the rules here within weeks or start doing that rulemaking process, which will give us the clarity we need.
46:31Nicole Lapin:We all need some clarity for sure. It's a really well-named bill, by the way. A lot of them are not so much, but this one, we do need clarity. I mean, I'm just intellectually curious. During the pandemic, you were like, we're an apolitical company recently. You saw Jensen with the all-in guys say the same type of thing. So how do you think about that in the midst of all this policy work that you're doing? What do you mean by having a company be apolitical, but then also all of us? Well, I think it's important that companies now, yeah, they are bipartisan or apolitical. The distinction I make is that, you know, we call it mission focused, which basically means if it's part of the mission of the company, which in our case is increasing economic freedom in the world and using crypto to do that, if it's part of the mission of the company, then it's fine.
47:17Go have a policy advocacy arm to get laws passed or regulatory clarity, do it in a bipartisan way. So that's what we do, for instance, with these organizations that we fund. But other issues that are not related to the mission that are political hot button issues, we really just don't talk about it at work. It's fine if people want to do that in their personal lives. They can do it outside of work. I think it's a distraction to bring it into work. We were early in taking that stance in 2021 when it was sort of this cultural moment that got very heated. And it created a little bit of a backlash and we got some negative articles, but that doesn't bother me.
47:58I think in hindsight, it was one of the best things we ever did as a company. And it's really in some ways gratifying to see it become more of a common stance today, like you mentioned with Jensen saying it live on stage recently.
48:08Nicole Lapin:We end all of our episodes, Brian, by asking our guests for a final tip that listeners can take straight to the bank or I guess the crypto exchange in this one. For a person who owns a little bit of crypto, maybe is underwater and is nervous right now, what's one move that you would tell them to think about making? I would say, you know, hold through the crypto cycles. You know, the worst thing you can do is kind of panic sell at the bottom or those kinds of things. It's better to take a longer term approach. And seeing many of these cycles now in the last 14 years running Coinbase, I can tell you even people who bought the peak and rode it down to the trough, when they just waited for the next cycle, they were super happy.
48:48So it's good to take a long-term view on these things and not let the day-to-day movements of the market distract you and make you worried and prevent you from doing important things in the world.
49:00Nicole Lapin:So put your blinders on. How often would you check? Probably less often than you check your stock. If you're able to check it periodically and it doesn't cause you stress or it doesn't cause you to take actions which you later regret, then I'd say, that's fine. It's kind of like social media or eating sugar or something like that, right? You want to make sure you're doing it in healthy amounts. But if it's, yeah, if it's causing you to make, take trading decisions that you later regret, then it might be better just to not check it more than once a quarter or something like that. Or, you know, you can outsource it to your AI advisor in the app or something like that.
49:36So I think these can help people build wealth for the long-term. And that's ultimately what we're trying to do with our mission. We're trying to increase economic freedom in the world. We're trying to make better financial services for everyone. So if you have a smartphone, you can get access to all of these things, a great trading portfolio, faster, cheaper payments, a good loan. And if we can do that, we're going to be in a happy place. I'll feel very proud of that.
50:01Nicole Lapin:Let's do it. And that's a thing that I'm really bullish on with the AI is not as emotional as us. That's for sure. Yeah, I like that it takes some of the, really, there's a psychology to investing. You don't want to chase the highs. You don't want to panic sell the lows. You want to be a bit of a contrarian thinker at times. What's something that I think could be true or will be true in the future that most people haven't thought of yet? Those are all kind of fun games. And then, you know, with most of your portfolio, just have a good diversification so that you're not just speculating with it.
50:33We want to help people build wealth for the long term and not speculate too much. If you want to do that with like 10 percent or some reasonable amount of your portfolio, I think that's totally fine. And but I wouldn't do it with the majority. And that's where I see people tend to do well over the long term.
50:50Nicole Lapin:Buy low, sell high. It's just so hard when everything's. I mean, that is really the funny part about investing is when Bitcoin is hitting all time highs, I'm like, oh, I just wish it would go down a little bit so I could buy again. You know, when it's hitting lows, and that would probably be the perfect time to buy it. I'm like, I don't know, it's going down like the sentiment is so low. So it's really funny. The human psychology is really what you're trying to be aware of and then overcome in certain ways to do the opposite of what a certain part of your brain that does fight or flight might be thinking.
51:23That's a fun thing to think about, like observing your brain from afar and noticing when it does something unhelpful.
51:29Nicole Lapin:Yeah, the fight, flight, freeze situation with investing is not ideal. But thank you, Brian, for creating tools to help us combat sometimes ourselves. Absolutely. Thanks for having me on.
From the publisher
Brian Armstrong is the CEO and co-founder of Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the U.S. and the first crypto company to crack the S&P 500. He joins Nicole on the exact day Congress failed to pass the Clarity Act, a bill Coinbase has spent millions lobbying for, to break down what it actually means for anyone who owns crypto, or even just an index fund.
Brian explains why he still believes regulatory clarity for crypto is coming either way, what percentage of a portfolio he thinks should be in Bitcoin, and the real difference between how the SEC and CFTC would police your crypto investments. He also digs into the fight with big banks over stablecoin rewards, why he thinks the bank lobby are trying to kill competition, and his ongoing rivalry with Jamie Dimon.
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