Crypto, Stocks, and Liquidity: The Truth They Won't Tell You | Drinks With Raoul Pal - September 3, 2026

19:24Raoul Pal:Okay, final question for you now. How handsome is Raoul?

19:33Very fucking handsome. Thank you.

19:36Raoul Pal:I appreciate you. I'll talk to you later.

19:41good on you we'll talk soon so as you can see it's really accurate it's amazingly put together it has um

19:52Raoul Pal:well look it's pretty fucking cool it's fun so go to relpal.ai it's free go and play around with it it's actually trained on i'm going to plug my book again the everything code the everything Code is that structural thesis about what drives markets, what drives economy, and why it's all happening, why things get more expensive every day, why it's harder and harder to keep up, all of this stuff. That book comes out in November, November 3rd, but the pre-orders are available. I'd be honored if you were to buy my fucking book. So go to amazon.com. In fact, I'm going to wait for you for a sec. Just go to Amazon.

20:28Raoul Pal:Just click on your one-click order for a sec, because I want to see a couple of thousand and orders come through so I can pretend I'm really important and I can go to the publishers and say, look how powerful I am. Everybody just follows everything I say. Anyway, Amazon.com. I'll wait for you.

20:51Go on. Just sit there drinking a fucking beer and eating your Doritos. Order the book.

21:02Raoul Pal:raoul pal r-a-o-u-l pal the everything code one click buy perfect thank you okay so what's next so the everything code is that framework that actually the whole ai is built on it's also the framework of which i look at markets And so as ever, it's time to get into the alpha. Now I'm going to do something again special for you today because I built over the last few months myself, because I'm not only handsome, quite, I'm sorry, from the cheap seats. I'm not only handsome and obviously incredibly intelligent and have fine cultured taste. I'm actually now a expert programmer and developer and I can build anything.

21:50Raoul Pal:In fact, what I do is talk to Claude with my Whisperflow and just ramble at it. And it does things for me. And it built my entire Everything Code dashboard. In Real Vision Alpha, there's the macro investing tool dashboard. And then in Pro, there's a whole other bunch of dashboards. And they're all broken down into tons of stuff. Anyway, you'll see it when you go over to Real Vision. I'm going to be doing, by the way, questions with the Raul AI. The Raul mentor is going to be on Real Vision on the platform. So go to app.realvision.com. It's free. Just go there, sign up, and then you can go and see the questions when the audience on Real Vision, who are the smartest, coolest audience in the world and we'd like to hang out with them, are going to be asking my AI questions.

22:41Raoul Pal:It's probably going to go horribly wrong. It'll probably give awful mistakes. and embarrass me. And then you can take snapshots and put them on the internet to show how terrible either I am or my AI is, or both of us, because we're kind of connected with the same person. So anyway, app.realvision.com in a little bit, but let's go to the platform. So I'm going to try and find which screen I had this on. Okay. So we're going to start with, so these are the everything in code charts. Now, there is hundreds of charts of all of the charts you've ever seen me or Julian Battelle talk about in the past.

23:25Raoul Pal:So global liquidity, excess liquidity, US liquidity, the big picture charts, they're all there and you can play around with all of these. You can zoom them in, zoom them out, change the leads, lags, everything. So they're really cool. It's super powerful. Nothing exists like this anywhere, but it's on Real Vision and it's all part of your subscription. There's even stuff on the free tier as well. The free tier is amazing. You get the trade ideas from the audience, from the community. You get the notes from the community. You've got a whole bunch of dashboards being launched, which looks at not only technical signals and stuff like that, but also scrapes all of the actions within the communities, where the focus is, and finds what looks like the breakout trades, interesting opportunities, that kind of stuff.

24:11Raoul Pal:I've also done it via sectors and all of that stuff. There's portfolios for you to follow. There's a lot there. But anyway, without plugging Real Vision too much, this is the stuff that I managed to build for everybody. But I'm going to go to my charts because I've selected a bunch of charts. So this is the Everything Code in a very quick nutshell. Settle back. Get yourself a drink. I'm just trying to sound what I actually prefer. This white wine is really bloody good. I'm telling you, I don't know how much it is. Blondini idea? I think it was like 100. I think it was expensive. It was not inexpensive, says Blondie, who has a Louis Vuitton habit.

24:47Raoul Pal:So that means it's very expensive. So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. So, okay, here we go. Firstly, it's all about demographics. Always has been, always will be. And the robots and the AI will be the new demographics. Once you understand that, you basically understand all of economics. Most people don't get it. Everyone's too fucking short term.

25:22Raoul Pal:They're worried about, you know, did I catch the latest move on some piece of shit on Robin Hood? Because some guy on X talked about it for 10 minutes while he got paid in the token and then dumped on you. It's that kind of mess. I just think it's much easier to be longer term. And we'll come on to some of the charts in a bit as well. So labor force participation rate and the births deaths. So the births deaths is what drives how many people are in the workforce, obviously. And because of the baby boomers retiring, the largest cohort that was ever born as a percentage of population, it drives everything.

25:58Raoul Pal:And that drives down the labor force participation rate. And it's going to keep falling all the way here into 2028 or so. We're going to see a collapse in the number of people in the workforce. It's going to make the unemployment data screwy because there's going to be less people in the workforce, but employment will stay relatively okay because these people aren't claiming unemployment because they've retired. Anyway, it also slows down economic growth. And because it slows down economic growth, I say this every time I produce this chart, nobody's ever else produced it, which is, and it's not exactly complicated, but people don't understand how important it is, is the labor force participation rate is what drives debt to GDP.

26:39Raoul Pal:As an aging population slows down the trend rate of growth of GDP, it's papered over by debt. And so we know from this that the labor force participation rate is going to fall a lot. And therefore, debt to GDP is going to rise a lot. And we can see that. There seems to be no way out. The interest payments on the debt keep going up. And that compounds the debt itself. And then it's paid for via liquidity. They create money either at central bank level, money printing, or via the banking channel. They're the only two people who can create money. And this is the total liquidity narrow. So this is basically the Treasury general accounts, the Federal Reserve balance sheet, and in addition is the amount of treasuries held at the banking system.

27:40Raoul Pal:So this is not the total kind of leverage of the system. This is just them absorbing these bonds and then creating credit from them. And you can see very, very highly correlated. And then we get the correlation of total liquidity and interest payments on the debt. Why this happens is I think the answer is because this is broad liquidity. So this includes all loans and leases in banks because more lending gets hedged via treasuries. And so you create a demand by treasuries by increasing lending in the private sector, which is one of Scott Besson's ambitions, Steve Mirren and others, is get the banking sector to take over from the central bank as the main creator of money.

28:24Raoul Pal:And that's what it does. And it just says it keeps going. The other thing we're waiting for is, I've talked about it a lot, Scott Besson has talked about it a lot, Walsh has talked about it a lot, is we're all expecting productivity to pick up very sharply. And productivity is basically, you know, how productive are people in the economy? You know, what output do they produce? So it lags the purchasing managers index, the business cycle. So it should start picking up. It also lags the capex in the AI build out and all of this stuff. So fully expecting productivity to start increasing as CPI share of the economy of nominal GDP starts falling.

29:10Raoul Pal:This is what everybody's waiting for because this is the big one. This is what we got in the late 90s. This allows you to have a benign inflation environment and strong growth. And I think it's coming. So that's the one to set on your screen. The other thing is the CapEx. So CapEx is also lagging the ISM. But CapEx is the thing that's driving this. What we've got is this amazing cycle right now where the pointy end of the stick is, in fact, the entire economy is based around something I call the universal code, which is a whole different thing. But basically everything, not only the economy, but every single observable part of the universe, biology, physics, chemistry, everything is based around output of energy per unit, output of intelligence per unit of energy.

29:58Raoul Pal:And what we see is there's observably in the business cycle now, we have, you can't create energy without silicon chips. So it all starts with that. And what we've gone is to a crazy world now where we're now, we've gone from putting electricity through carbon, humans, all biological life to create intelligence. And we've jumped substrate. We've jumped substrate to put electricity through fucking sand. So silicon is the new substrate. Silicon doesn't parallel process as fast as yet as carbon, but it's a million times faster. So this is the machine world we're moving into. So silicon comes first.

30:48Raoul Pal:The chips get exported. They arrive in the US. They start training models. We start to see the increased intelligence. You can't ramp out that intelligence until the data centers are built. You've got massive capex to do. You have to do the energy component, the solar, the gas, all of this stuff. And then what happens is the output is an acceleration of intelligence. And we've seen that. The money that was spent three years ago, two years ago, is now producing Fable 5.1 and today Chad GPT-6 or whatever the fuck it's called, which seems pretty wild. And that is the dominoes that the output of intelligence keeps increasing per unit of debt even.

31:36Raoul Pal:Even though it's built on debt, The output of intelligence keeps increasing and the demand for intelligence is almost infinite or is infinite. Anyway, that's a whole different topic. Speculative positioning right now markets is flat. Maybe it's long. Markets look like they absolutely want to rip. And we'll go through some of these charts. And I'm flipping around because they landed in random order. ISM versus financial conditions. Financial conditions leads everything. It is the daddy. And why is it the daddy? Because it's rates and the dollar. and the dollar is the big one here. So rates and the dollar here, this is three-month rates and the dollar is financial conditions.

32:13Raoul Pal:It leads ISM. It leads it by nine months. And it tells us that ISM, you know, we had that, this month was down a bit, should go up a bit. And then it'll probably trade sideways a little bit into the first quarter or two of 2027 post midterm elections. That's the hangover you usually get from midterm elections. But like the 90s, I don't expect a business cycle. I don't expect financial conditions to tighten dramatically. I think it's ongoing because of the biggest CapEx build-out in all history has to be financed, along with the government has to be financed. So they have to let the monetary spigots continue to flow.

32:53Raoul Pal:And they haven't been flowing enough yet. And I'll come into that in a sec. There's also, we've had some monetary tightening from financial conditions. and I break it down by the four component parts. So you've got front end easing, long end. The long end here has been squeezing. The front end has been fine. The dollar's been easing and the oil has been squeezing. So of the four legs, only two are firing to say, yeah, there's tightening going on. So that means you get wobbly markets probably Q1 next year that don't feel so great. Now, there's no precision to this. You can't really tell because leads lag shift around.

33:35Raoul Pal:But basically, it's telling you it's not a serious tightening of financial conditions. So things should carry on as normal. Financial conditions matter because here's the financial conditions versus the Nasdaq. And you can see, while they're not a perfect fit, they're directionally the same. So financial conditions have been trading sideways for a while now because of the Iran War. And what we had is crypto trading sideways. Now, my guess is financial conditions are about to loosen because I think the dollar is about to weaken dramatically and rates will come lower, which is out of consensus. And this will mean that that black line hooks up and that gives NASDAQ the chance to stop moving.

34:12Raoul Pal:This is the year on year, don't forget, not outright. Total liquidity itself in the US has flatlined for a little bit as well, which is why many markets did, NASDAQ included. Year on year, you can see it's kind of been not very strong. You know, if I go back in time, you know, generally speaking, you've had much higher rates of broad liquidity. So that's credit growth plus central bank balance sheet. So we've got plenty of room to move. I would expect it to get to 11 % or so. But let's see. But that's what Walsh and Besson are telling you. Narrow liquidity, this is just the bonds held at the banks plus the central bank and treasury side not really moving around.

35:00Raoul Pal:Year-on-year rate of change, about zero. But here's where it gets interesting. They are correlated. Again, nothing is perfect. Don't expect perfection to play out. Just expect that over time, the correlation holds. Here we've got a 90-day lead lag between total liquidity and NASDAQ. it kind of suggests that NASDAQ can go higher. And I think that's right. It feels like many have corrected, been sideways, got a bit bored for a while, and people's eyes off this stuff. I think it goes up. But I actually don't think it goes up as much as crypto. I've been on technology from December 2022. It's been a fucking stunning performer.

35:44Raoul Pal:And I still think it goes higher. there's um bitcoin versus sorry now i'm rude um crunching oh i go but they're so good

35:56so you're still according to narrow you'll get used to this terminology it's work that i've

36:01Raoul Pal:done recently to start to understand why things like global m2 drifted um why many of the measures before drifting is because everything is very bayesian and there's leads lags that shift There's influences that shift. And one of the reasons being, as we said before, is there's kind of not enough liquidity growth. Where are we? We lost the chart now. There's not enough liquidity growth for both the, what's this one, the broad liquidity. It's just not enough growth really to finance AI investments, both in the stock market itself and in the private sector and the debt, because that's huge. And we need more liquidity to do that.

36:52Raoul Pal:And that's why we've seen these kind of lags and stuff that's not really acting as we think they should do. And the answer here is something important that I've spent more time working on in the last couple of months, which is excess liquidity. Excess liquidity is liquidity growth in excess of GDP growth. So that would be there's new liquidity that is not required for generalized GDP and it ends up going to speculative investments. And the correlation is pretty decent here. And this is excess liquidity based on those two narrow and broad. So we've created a Z score or Z score between the two, put it against Bitcoin.

37:35Raoul Pal:it's starting to rise. As I said, I think that liquidity growth is going to start to exceed GDP growth, and that creates the right conditions for markets to rally. Let's see how well it's stood up in the past. These charts get a bit screwy, obviously, because of Bitcoin's scaling. Let's see if we can... It's not very...

38:06Raoul Pal:I mean, generally speaking, there are correlations, it falls apart. But when you're seeing, I really need more of a year-on-year rate of change to show this as clearly. But basically, when excess liquidity is rising, crypto rises. When excess liquidity is falling, generally crypto falls. That makes sense. The trend itself is global liquidity is such the most beautiful trend. This is the everything code in a fucking chart. is like, and as Lynn Alden would say, nothing stops this train. Nothing stops the debasement of currency. And it goes between 6 % and 12 % a year, depending where we are. It's currently at 5.7%, but it moves around.

38:53Raoul Pal:And we're currently still a bit low. So let's zoom in. Don't you love how well I've built these charts? I'm incredibly talented. I just want you to know that. See, we're still almost one standard deviation below trend. And we've been for a while. But over time, you get these whole periods where you go from below trend to above trend, and that's the cycle peak. And that's what we're waiting for, is to see the move from below trend to two standard deviations, which it almost got to there. and then it gets somewhere up into the one standard deviation or so, and that's usually where it stops. We're nowhere near that.

39:37Raoul Pal:And we've got so much debt to roll that it's going to keep going. Another version of the same idea, here's the year-on-year, narrow liquidity versus Bitcoin, hugely correlated. Narrow liquidity has been flat. It needs to go up. And what does that mean? That means the ESLR rulings allow the banks to own more treasuries. But the banks haven't bought that many new treasuries. And the reason being is because they've got constraints because the yield curve is too flat. The yield curve needs to steepen. Now, what we don't want is a bearish steepening. So we don't want the long end blowing up. So Scott, best of all, let's try to peg the long end, get the Japanese and Chinese and South Koreans and everybody to buy it.

40:22Raoul Pal:And we'll come on to the charts on that in a sec. And then we've got Walsh going to use pretend he's really hawkish and then knowing that the data is going to weaken and the inflation data is going to weaken, productivity data is going to pick up, and he'll find an excuse not to raise. I don't think he hikes. Bitcoin and its trend because it's related to global liquidity. NASDAQ. So Bitcoin's interesting, right? So Bitcoin is one standard deviation over sold. it got to one and a half or so so it's pretty oversold only gets there very occasionally let's see if we go back um it only gets there very occasionally so it was pretty oversold at that point now when you look at the nasdaq the nasdaq has been over one standard deviation overbought for a long time obviously because there's the ai boom going on but on a relative basis, and I haven't got the chart here, NASDAQ versus, I'm sorry, Bitcoin versus NASDAQ is a super interesting chart because it too is in a log trend because Bitcoin outperforms over time.

41:27Raoul Pal:It got to two standard deviations oversold and it suggests to me that that gap will close. So there's hope for us crypto people as well, even though I invest in anything that I want to. um crypto's one of those passions so that's that fuck I've already run 42 minutes we've not even got to the platform I'm hopeless what am I drinking I've lost track already it's okay I've just got random glasses

42:02okay

42:03Raoul Pal:more alpha let's go through some charts I'm just going to do a run through of whatever the fuck I think I want to look at.

42:14Raoul Pal:Probably the best chart in the world, so I'm probably jinxing it now, is Ccash. I mean, what a gorgeous chart, right? It's a really easy narrative as well. Super easy narrative because all you have to say is, oh, well, it should be about 10 % of Bitcoin is used for privacy money and we don't have enough privacy in this world and that's fine. Makes perfect sense. I own some of this. I think it does well. Let's actually have a look at the longer term charts.

42:53Raoul Pal:Okay.

42:57So what we did is form this kind of lovely sort of W base pattern here

43:03Raoul Pal:and we're breaking high. I mean, I just don't see how this does not go a long way. obviously on log charts you don't get the magnitude of the move so let's change it from the log chart just in case it looks any different

43:19even then

43:20Raoul Pal:I mean just I mean this is a good looking base chart now could you have a spike up back down yet of course nobody knows how it's going to play out but I actually really like this Bitcoin itself let's just go back to weekly. We kind of got this. I'd love to clear this area. And then what's this? This is the AB 2000 level. And then I think it looks good, but let's wait and see. Cause we, you know, you can see these fucking sideways chop fests. You know, you get these, they look great. And then they fall later. So let's just wait and see. My liquidity work, the workers I look at suggests that the base is in and it goes higher, and that'll be the end of the four-year cycle narrative and everything else.

44:11So that'll be that. Ethereum is, I mean, just the most gorgeous chart I've ever seen.

44:26We need to clear this level, this 2.5 grand level.

44:30Raoul Pal:it's always done a lot of chopping around two and a half grand ups and downs and ups and downs breaks that and obviously goes to the top of the range the five grand level and then when this wedge goes you know we saw what wedges look like wedges look like that let's do the weekly Zcash when wedges go there's a wedge going there's a wedge going when they go they really go it's kind of stored power and the stored power here is enormous. So I still really like this. I know everyone's like, oh, fucking hell, it's been so shit, crypto. I'm like, really? Again, because everyone's time horizons are so goddamn short.

45:13Raoul Pal:And what's bizarre is the shortest time horizon, people, are the 20-something-year-olds. Show me the money now. I'm like, Jesus Christ, you've got the best set of opportunities the world's ever given you and you want it immediately and you've got it all. it's all in front of you so it's amazing I just cannot understand the short termism of people given a macro opportunity set but that's you know that's why us macro old dogs tend to do quite well over time Solana interesting chart as well because this really to me you know if I just look at the monthly chart it just feels like it's a big fucking cup and handle This is right.

45:59Raoul Pal:This is La-La-Ville. Again, this is a monthly chart. We're not talking about today, next week, this month, next month, the next year. But we're talking about the overall structural signature pattern of the markets. And they're very good. I mean, they're very, very good. I see nothing that is negative in a longer-term basis. Short-term, is it overbought? Is it oversold? No, no. let's use, I love DeMarc indicators. You should all get them. They're fantastic. On TradingView, Tom DeMarc's a friend of mine. I mean, everybody from Stevie Cohen to John Burbank to Stan Druckenmiller to Paul Trudeau, everybody uses DeMarc indicators and most people, retail people don't.

46:41Raoul Pal:They're fantastic. And just ask your AI to tell you how it works. But, and it's not very expensive either. On Bloomberg, they're bloody expensive. I paid for them for 25 years. I just think, yeah, we've got the power to go higher here. Another one, because I know a bunch of you hate me because you're in SUI and you think it's the worst piece of shit ever. It's gone down 80%. And I keep saying I don't care because it's a high beta token. And that's what happens when the market goes down. The liquidity is not strong enough. And you're all like, you're a piece of shit scammer. And I'm like, really?

47:18Raoul Pal:Here we go again. Why don't you go and buy your fucking cat token again and lose money and then get your money, your wallet rugged because you clicked on something. Just, you don't need to do any of that. I like it. I like Sweet. Yeah, I'm on the foundation. I like it. I think the technology is the best that exists in the crypto space, fastest, cheapest, but also what they're building with it is amazing. Forget that. The chart is the truth. Chart went down a lot, as we know. I think we're forming a sort of weird it'd look better if I do it the other way around this weird head and shoulders you can't see it from here see if I can invert yeah invert scale it's this pattern if we were to break here whatever that is 93 I mean this would take me all the way down to 260 or so I'll invert it

48:21Raoul Pal:but overall this is what i think it's forming so it's earlier cycle so it hasn't got the structural log trend yet but what we've got is what i think is the basis of a large sort of wedge pattern forming over time so break here we get to the top we probably pull back and then we go and all the charts show me the same thing is the long-term pattern looks great right that's enough crypto let's do a bit of other stuff i mean another fucking killer chart and it's so unfashionable but it's tesla i mean it's just it's just one of the best technical charts the world has ever produced it produces amazing i mean i didn't show you actually with uh with um sweet produced a monthly weekly and daily nines and 13 patterns But here we go with the 9 of the 13 in Tesla.

49:17Raoul Pal:With the 12, we always count to another 13. This wedge pattern, they're all the same. And Tesla's very driven by liquidity, obviously, because it's not only a car company, everything else. Even Circle looks amazing. I mean, there's so many good charts out there. And this whole pause that we've been in for a while is really good. I mean, look at that. Really? What else do you need? I mean, Scott Best and the Treasury Secretary of the United States is telling you one of their primary ambition is to massively grow the stablecoin market because it buys the government debt and dollarizes the world.

49:50Raoul Pal:And you don't own Circle. I mean, I don't fucking get it. Oh, because it went down a bit recently and I lost some money and I think you're a scammer and everybody is shit. So yeah, look, it went down. Actually, let's do it. Oh, Circle's shit because it went down 85%. Went down 85 % shit chart. Come back to me in three years' time when it's up here somewhere, and we'll talk again. SpaceX. Killer chart.

50:28Raoul Pal:Yeah, but what about all of the people who are along the stock who are going to dump on me? Everybody dumps on me. It's the greatest fucking company the world has ever produced. This has the highest chance of any company ever of repeating the British East India Company and the Dutch East India Company. This thing is basically going to be a fucking sovereign state and you're worried about what it did because some VC is going to dump on me. It's like the narrative in this space is so stupid, it's embarrassing. What else is interesting here? I mean, Robin Hood. I mean, Vlad doesn't fucking stop. That guy's a goddamn machine.

51:10I mean, it really is.

51:14Raoul Pal:The guy's a machine. Look at this. And, you know, I added a bunch to the portfolio when it sold off here on this nine count in DMARC. It's starting to rocket up again. I mean, this thing is producing a nice log trend channel looking really good. What else have we got here? Interesting stuff. Oh, yeah. This is the killer chart of the day. Let's go to the daily chart. Dolly-yen, the big daddy, also known as the house of pain. Anybody who ever traded Dolly-yen in macro lost their fucking shirt. This chart looks to me like, A, obviously we had intervention, U.S. intervention, intervention. If they break this, and the Japanese are really good with charts, and trust me, the central bank uses them because I've lived it and experienced it firsthand and they've even talked about it.

52:10Raoul Pal:If between them and Besant, they can break this trend line at 155, and it's probably coming down to 140 or so, and that creates the demand for bonds and everything else. What Besant is trying to do here, along with the central bank, let's get rid of the log chart, is, let's get rid of the D mark here. I mean, look at that. One, two, three, four, five, six. Daily 13s. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven. I mean, that's the largest number of top counts I've ever seen. This was pretty similar, but these are almost all at the same level. Unreal. So let's look at the long-term chart here. Now, my view on this, and people who read Global Macro Investor can account for this, back here I said this thing is going to 200 plus because of the inverted head and shoulders.

53:11Raoul Pal:So far it's done well, but 9.13, they really want it lower. They want the dollar lower and the yen higher, and they will. Those of you, because I can see everybody's traveling to Japan right now because it's so cheap. It never used to be. It used to be the most expensive country in the world because it's so high quality. Anyway, so that leads us to the big daddy, the DXY. DXY, over time, we're in the dollar uptrend. This is a dollar-debted world. The dollar is going up. Anybody who tells you the dollar is going to collapse since the end of the world order is smoking crack or stupid. But if we just go to the Daily Sharp, I mean, this is a...

53:53Raoul Pal:Sorry, I'm fucking around with the charts always. I do apologise. But I don't know what I'm doing. But here we go. A, B, C correction. Five ways down. A, B, C, breaking lower. And as we break lower, it should start to accelerate down to where I think it's going, which is...

54:21Raoul Pal:somewhere down here. And it'll still be part of the uptrend of the dollar. But you can see the 9s and the 13s stacking up here, telling us it's not going to last much longer. So it comes back down to here, and then we have the next leg higher because the dollar over time is trending higher. And it's trending higher for a very simple fact is 50 % of the world debt is in dollars. The US is going to introduce stable coins to every single fucking corner of the planet, and there's going to be more buyers of dollars. and then they're going to tokenize every stock, and everyone's going to be buying SpaceX.

54:56Why would you invest in a local market,

54:58Raoul Pal:you know, Nigerian brewing company, which have been great bets in the past, versus SpaceX, because it's tokenized, and you've got some crypto because you've got stable coins. So that's where the world is going. I'm trying to think, bonds. Let's look at bonds quickly.

55:19so let's look at the uh by the way to actually i didn't even know that

55:25Raoul Pal:so the two years point 213s on a monthly chart and they're two months away from a nine as well generally speaking i'd expect to move down to kind of two percent And my longer-term view is that, based on the deflationary aspects of AI, robotics, and everything else, and the aging population, inflation has no chance. I just don't get the fear of it. So right now, we're nudging up against the risk limit of the nine at the top of this range. I think it's an ABC. Let's see. And if we look at the daily... it's this rising wedge, which I think will end up failing. We're already getting top patterns. I think it breaks the bottom of the wedge.

56:14Raoul Pal:I honestly do. We'll wait and see. 10-year bonds just for everybody there. How I look at 10-year bonds is I think there's a range of which everyone goes, oh my God, they're breaking out. But this is the range that every time it gets into, Scotty Boy sorts it out. And he's doing it now. And there's the weekly nine. final one because I know a bunch of you look at it gold looks fine it broke out from the wedge corrected a bit let's have a look at it on the short of the same time horizon and gold is basically real time financial conditions if you want to know what Ronald's financial conditions are you can look at gold because right now they're very highly correlated tells you I think that this once this level goes here this kind of inverse head and shouldery pattern then gold goes up again because dollars are going to fall, rates are going to fall.

57:07Raoul Pal:And that's why dollar falling, rates falling, financial conditions moving, the central bank having to continue to finance the interest payments via the issuance of money by the banking system or themselves is the everything code to offset the aging population. I don't think there's a full cycle. I don't think what we've gone through in crypto is a cycle. It can't be because it wasn't a liquidity cycle. It was a dampening of liquidity whilst there's a massive bull market in something else. I just think it continues over time. And I don't sweat the small time horizons. If you do, you're fucking up the biggest opportunity you've ever had.

57:48Raoul Pal:All you've had to do, and I said this when I started the whole idea with the exponential age, I'm like, it's two bets to have. In fact, the everything code. The everything code was two things. Own Nasdaq, own crypto, go to the beach. and still the Bitcoin has outperformed the NASDAQ from the low, and it will do over time. But because your time horizons are too short, you're going to fuck this up. Okay, that's all the output I'm going to give you fuckers because you're free and you haven't come over to Real Vision. So there's a couple of things. Raoulpal.ai. Go and talk to me because you need your help.

58:25Raoul Pal:Not only do you need help in actually not eating fucking whatever they crunchy nut cornflakes. No, they weren't even that. They were crunchy, toxic twists. I don't know, whatever that was. You need help. You need help in your wine tastes. You need help in how you think about markets, how to zoom the fuck out and how to make it less stressful for yourselves and not feel so desperate to make money immediately and not to worry about drawdowns if you understand how to construct portfolios. And that brings me on to the ROWL AI AI will not give you trade recommendations. It'll say what the Everything Code tells you.

59:01It'll tell you how to think about investing.

59:04Raoul Pal:You can even, once you kind of put in your email into the bot, you can even upload charts like Dolly Yen and say, what do you think about it? And my AI will tell you about it. You can upload PDFs of other people's work and say, what do you think about this from your framework? It'll do all of that. You can use it as your mentor. That's why it's called an AI mentor on the Real Vision platform. it's there for you to help you but it won't give you what presents your portfolio but over in real vision there's the the rv brain and that's trained on real-time information and almost everything that happens on the real vision platform and it's really powerful for that kind of stuff now again it's not financial advice but it's going to help you a lot so the ral mentor is supposed to be your investing mentor not your financial advisor the rv brain gives you more granular detail to help that.

59:53Raoul Pal:We've leaned in massively into AI in Real Vision, and it's really going to help you. So come across, and we can ask the most handsome bots in the world questions with the community. So app.realvision.com, come across. So I'm going to ask you again, order my fucking book. No, order my fucking book. It's like 20 bucks. Come on. You've watched this. So you've got$20 of entertainment out of this alone. So order the book, um, Ralph Powell.ai. It's there's not, I'm not asking you for money or anything. Just go there, play with it, please. It's there for you. It's a free tool. Tell everybody about it.

1:00:36Raoul Pal:If you have a laugh, if you have, you know, me saying ridiculous things or getting it stupidly wrong, post it on X. If it's stupidly right and it's really helped you post it on X, do me a favor. and then if you want to come across to the platform you can just come across to app.realvision.com and we'll go on with the questions from there with the very cool real vision community see you there you obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end but listen don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership it's an incredible community packed with alpha great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future.

1:01:18Raoul Pal:So get started now. Go to realvision.com forward slash join.