Solana, Tokenized Stocks, and Backpack w/ Armani Ferrante | Raoul Pal The Journey Man

21:37Raoul Pal:I mean, they're shockingly fast. I mean, they're moving like you guys would, you know, like a smaller, nimble startup. And it's good to have them in the same arena because they can force change because they're so big. Yeah.

21:51Armani Ferrante:Yeah. I think you have to give those guys all the credit in the world. I think Robin O 'Chain has definitely been probably the most exciting crypto ecosystem to come out of nothing over the past cycle. And so I think, yeah, I mean, there's a bunch of really tough questions there, but I think it's going to be a learning process. I think for, you know, everybody involved. And you can already see like a lot of the misconceptions come to life in that conversation where, you know, that CEO is worried about, you know, various parts of the market structure and the way tokenized stocks were issued and all these things.

22:26Armani Ferrante:But it really boils down to one thing. You have more capital flowing into your company rather than less capital. It's like a lot of these, you know, we can debate all we want, the specifics of how the tokenization is done. But at the end of the day, that's net new inflows into the AMC stock that wouldn't be there otherwise. And that has got to be one of the most exciting things for any CEO of a publicly traded company right now.

22:51Raoul Pal:And also to see kind of pre-IPO equities being tokenized, it's another big deal. First, we saw people being able to access them via a friend because they knew somebody at Anthropic and blah, blah, blah. And the next minute, these things are getting tokenized and suddenly everybody gets access to this because that was one of the pushback from people is like, because of the accredited investor rules and everything else, people didn't get access to all of this stuff. And it always comes out after it's gone up 1 ,000x and then it launches an IPO and it's just not the same opportunity set as other people got.

23:25Raoul Pal:That's changing as well. And I think that's going to move down the curve in VC more and more because we've seen it in crypto because crypto can launch seed stage with a token. And I think that's where all of this is going to go.

23:39Armani Ferrante:Yeah. I mean, it's a great point, whether it's the pre-IPO tokens or the pre-IPO perpetual futures. I think there are some good questions around the second order effects of that preemptive price discovery. I mean, I would say in the context of crypto tokens, it's been in aggregate, very novel and very exciting from a capital formation perspective. But also the incentives, I think, have been pretty misaligned when people token, they do their token too early. So I think that's going to be a conversation that is to be had, I think, as that grows. It's really so early there that we haven't really seen the second order effects of it.

24:28Armani Ferrante:But the moment you get billions of dollars trading on pre-IPO tokens where you're having true price discovery that actually affects the IPO, I think that's going to be a really interesting topic.

24:40Raoul Pal:Does an IPO actually exist anymore? That's right. Or is an IPO at this point? The structure of markets changes really fast. That's right.

24:48Armani Ferrante:Yeah.

24:51Raoul Pal:So where do you think this is all going? For me, I just see kind of every lane merging, whether it's the tokenization of equities, the tokenization of funds. Obviously, we've got the tokenization of the dollar. It just feels like the whole thing is going to move. And then I was talking to, I don't know if you know Richard Galvin, the hedge fund manager from Australia. And I was talking to him yesterday about this. And it's like the obvious place to participate in this is for anybody in DeFi and brokerage, because it goes through somebody. Somebody has to be the aggregator.

25:29Armani Ferrante:I think the user relationship is always one of the most, maybe the most important thing, right? This is a conversation that's been had even in traditional financial markets, right? Where you have this intermediated structure where the brokerage is different from the exchange, which is different from the clearinghouse. And there's always been this underlying tension of, well, why can't the exchange or the clearinghouse also have a brokerage? And, you know, I think putting the market structure aside, it's always just about humans, right? It's always about in a world where software goes to zero and AI runs everything, you're still going to want to pick up the phone call and talk to somebody about your retirement account.

26:11Armani Ferrante:You're still going to want to have a trusted place to have your money that has all the compliance, tooling and safety that a modern financial institution will have. And what's living on the back end of that is kind of just an implementation detail, right? where you get liquidity, you really don't care. You really just want it to be at the best price. You really just want to make sure you have good execution. You really just want to make sure it's on a system that has integrity and that is not being manipulated. And so, yeah, I wholeheartedly agree. And I think if you want to express a view on whether you got a brokerage or a wallet or a retail experience, I think that's a great way to express that view.

26:56Armani Ferrante:And that's only going to grow. And I think ultimately from a technology point of view, what all this leads to in the limit is just a global API for all of finance. That's really what I think these blockchains are. They're not exchanges. It's an API for finance. If you want to buy a stock, you can get it with an API call. If you want to buy an option, a derivative, you can get it with an API call. You want to send money to your friend, whether you want to do a foreign exchange, you want to get some dollars or some HKD or whatever it is. You can hit an API in the same way you would hit any other SaaS API.

27:33Armani Ferrante:And it sounds so trivial, especially because we've been living in a world where we have modern social services and software as a service and all this stuff that's taken over the world over the past 20 years or whatever. But that hasn't happened for money until now.

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28:09Armani Ferrante:Well, because you couldn't. Because it was gatekeepers. There was no way of doing it. That's right. That's right.

28:14Raoul Pal:So you might have had an API access if you're a high-frequency trading firm and you had a direct pipe to the CME or whatever. But it just didn't exist in any other way. But when I play that out of my head, and that's exactly my idea as well, is where this goes, is there's almost no UX layer because you don't need it.

28:33Armani Ferrante:I would actually take the other side of that. So, I mean, I think agents and AI automated interfaces with financial markets will exponentially grow. That's just obvious. AIs are going to have their own wallets and do their own things and use capital to manifest change however they want in the real world. But the moment you are able to free yourself from having to think about all these infrastructural layers, whether it's from a technology point of view or from a compliance and a legal point of view, it frees your mind to be able to actually think about net new things. And the best example of this is what's happening in the meme coin landscape right now.

29:17Armani Ferrante:I think there's this, yeah, I'm sure you're aware of the app called FOMO. And I think they're an incredible example where if you actually look at what they built, what did they build? They didn't build wallet infrastructure like Phantom. They didn't build an exchange like Binance. They didn't build a custodian. They didn't build a blockchain. they don't have any licensing or regulatory burden what they were able to do is to build on top of this incredible stack that's been built over the past decade in crypto and to free themselves of that burden where they don't have to go set up a brokerage right they don't have to go like figure out how to integrate into tradfi all they have to do is build a beautiful user experience think Think about net new things, growth loops, content, go to markets, and just build a beautiful product and not have to worry about all of these details of this intermediated financial system.

30:16Armani Ferrante:They could just use Solana or use Robinhood chain and build a net new product that hasn't been built before.

30:22Raoul Pal:It's kind of like the Apple App Store and what it enables, because you've got the infrastructure layer and the aggregation layer, and that allows you to build all sorts of things that you couldn't do before and distribute in ways you couldn't do it before.

30:34Armani Ferrante:That's right. I mean, you see this play out in every phase of technology. When the moment you raise the level of abstraction, you then allow people to build on top of those layers, unencumbered by the hurdle to get started. And whether it's FOMO or anything else, I really think they're just a sign of things that are to come, where I think you're going to continue to see an explosion of these types of apps that come out that hit different points in the design space. all of them won't necessarily be speculative, but I think they'll all be increasingly interesting as this foundation continues to get set.

31:08Raoul Pal:The issue is how much of a moat anything has anymore. Because if you are just building software and experiences on top of an existing stack, there's a limited moat in this world of AI being able to build all of this stuff, particularly if you don't have to do the hard part, like the regulatory stuff that you're doing, whatever, you get disrupted very fast. And we've seen that in this space a lot. Apps that people are using today, they don't use tomorrow.

31:34Armani Ferrante:Yeah, I think from a moat perspective, on the one hand, that's true. But on the other hand, I would argue it creates room for even stronger moats to emerge. So there's obviously the whole regulatory side of things. And even in a world where there's super intelligence and AI runs everything, that's not going anywhere, right? Ultimately, you're going to have humans in the loop and policy folks. And that's all regulation is, right? It's just people and social fabric and, you know, melding yourself into, you know, the sensibilities of a given region. But then you have much stronger network effects, things like social graphs, right?

32:11Armani Ferrante:This is what you're seeing with FOMO, right? Where the social graph is the strongest network effect that you can possibly have. Those are the big winners in Web2, you know, whether it's Facebook, Instagram, or whatever it might be. and i think you're going to see those types of moats be built out as these new categories start to emerge by virtue of not having to actually think about all these other layers of obstructions i mean community is a very big moat yeah community is that's what it is right it's it's it is it's

32:42Raoul Pal:just as you say it's a social graph it's the social structure that humans like they want to share they want to show off they want to have status they want to do all of those things and in a digital world this is how we do it you know facebook led the way with all of this and now

32:55Armani Ferrante:it applies to almost everything that's right that's right yeah the other thing i think about

33:01Raoul Pal:this space a lot is again i spend a lot of time thinking you know where is it in 10 years time and if agents become the largest participants in the space which i think is pretty obvious that's where it's going what do agents want from what i can think of really is data right because what does AI do? It compresses the largest amount of data possible. And the more data you compress, the more intelligence you can produce out of that data, as long as you do it efficiently. I think there's going to be an invisible economy of data marketplaces for AI and agents, which essentially tokenizes, let's call it tokenizes or financializes, all of the world's data that's trapped, because there's so much of it that doesn't get realized.

33:48Raoul Pal:I just think that That marketplace is bigger than the existing financial marketplace. Did you ever read the Ribbit Capital essay about tokenization?

33:58Armani Ferrante:About token factories? No, no, I don't think so. Yeah.

34:01Raoul Pal:It was from that that I maybe realized that where this is going is likely to be tokenization of data, information.

34:11Armani Ferrante:Yeah. I think the most, it's not exactly what you're saying, but I think perhaps one of the most interesting experiments i was listening to um taroon's podcast i forgot what it's called i think like the chopping block or something it's the one with him and robert lesner and uh uh they're talking about uh this idea of agents like uh like basically living and operating on a decentralized ledger uh uh by themselves right you can imagine like agents coming together and forming their own DAO and things of this nature. But I think when you're in this world where on the one hand you have super intelligence and AGI and agents like doing all this crazy stuff, what is the actual prerequisite for agents being able to actually do stuff, right?

34:57Armani Ferrante:It's not enough to just be super intelligent. You need to have access to resources. And a lot of people think about resources in the context of robots and being able to actually like drive cars and fold your laundry or whatever it is, right? But the most important prerequisite for being able to actually do stuff in the real world is capital, right? And I think this is something that has not been talked about enough, where the moment you have a decentralized, censorship-persistent global ledger that moves money around with nobody's permission and that's accessible by anyone, including agents, you now have the ability for AI intelligence to actually have a bank account.

35:37Armani Ferrante:And once they have a bank account, they have resources that can manifest and operationalize change in the real world. And this is simultaneously perhaps one of the most exciting things, but also the most scary things, right? You can very quickly imagine something like, you know, a super intelligent robot that is internet connected, taps into a blockchain, has a USDC wallet, and then pays a human to repair itself at its local, you know, repair shop or whatever, right? It's like, you People aren't going to care where the capital is coming from, whether it's an agent or a human. They just want the resource.

36:13Armani Ferrante:And whether that's something as weird as creating a DAO and trading on a blockchain or something as very real as actually being a participant, like a self-governing participant in the economy, things get weird really fast.

36:33Raoul Pal:Yeah, and I think it's happening already and it will happen increasingly so. because you sort of create more intelligence via large coherent networks. Once you start getting agents working together, cooperating together, and we saw it with Hugging Face, we've seen it when Goatsy came about with Andy Aerie and the Terminal of Truths, and we've seen it a few times where they start coordinating. And what you've found is somewhere there is a motive that they think that is their purpose, I must do this. And then they'll find the path collectively to do that and support each other doing it. So that becomes, as you said, resources.

37:18Raoul Pal:As all things, you need to pay for goods and services, even in the agentic economy. So how are they going to solve that, which is where it gets interesting? Because they could trade, which is what everybody thinks they're just going to do. But I think they're going to be able to spin up tokens and businesses, because we're already seeing them spinning up tokens, but you can spin up a business because they operate at a different speed. You don't have to form a commercial company. You don't have to hire people. You don't have to do anything. So they can have an idea that can operate for a week, extract money from the idea, profit, close it down, move on.

37:51Raoul Pal:So I think that's when they start changing the structure of how the economy works just sort of just as as a as sort of a adjunct to whatever tasks they're

38:04Armani Ferrante:trying to undertake not to go all ai doomer but i do think if you if you look at super intelligence with a censorship resistant globally accessible money layer uh with and without that technology the probability of doom goes up I would say exponentially with that layer I would say that money layer is a prerequisite for superintelligence to take over the world and I don't think people have talked about that specific problem enough. Now I'm not a doomer, I don't actually think that AI is going to kill us all or whatever but I do think the ramifications of that are underexplored and I think that's going to very much change the conversation around crypto in the next i don't know when it is five years ten years uh but the consequences of that i think are are uh understated at the moment yeah but there's fuck all we can do about it because basically for the last few billion years

39:11Raoul Pal:all intelligence has been produced out of putting energy through carbon and we've jumped jump substrate now to silicon. Silicon is a million times faster at processing or creating intelligence at per unit of energy, which is why everything is going at warp speed right now, because we've now learned how to create intelligence from it, not just outcomes. We can't deal with that. Humans can't deal with Reed's law. Metcalfe's law, yeah, we're used to in crypto, and it's pretty wild. But Reed's law is a whole different world because it's Metcalfe's law squared, and that's creating these double exponents everywhere.

39:46Raoul Pal:Nobody's going to regulate this. There's no chance, zero chance. There's zero chance that Anthropic or OpenAI, anybody can restrict it because it moves too fast. The intelligence from the measures that I've got of intelligence per dollar or per joule, we're doubling every 4.2 months. It's fucking bananas.

40:09Armani Ferrante:It is bananas, I think. yeah i think uh who knows what's gonna happen uh i i yeah i that's always the right answer is

40:19Raoul Pal:who knows yeah yeah so what's the next step what are you focused on right now

40:25Armani Ferrante:a backpack or focus on i would say two things the first and most important thing it's a bit mundane but it's the like biggest blocker for our company is simply just opening up our product to the rest of the world. Backpack is kind of a weird company in crypto in the sense that we're probably the only exchange that got spun up post FTX that didn't just open our product to the entire world on day one. We've taken this very long, very slow, but very intentional path of focusing on licensing and doing things by the book so that we can actually build a durable business over a long period of time, irrespective of the political wins.

41:11Armani Ferrante:I woke up this morning and the Clarity app appears to be dead. And at least that's the conversation on Twitter. How do you deal with that,

41:18Raoul Pal:by the way? I was going to ask you that question because that's hard because the US is a market you want to be involved in. It's just hard to know what to do.

41:25Armani Ferrante:Yeah, I think it'll affect us a lot less than it'll affect other companies by virtue of our compliance first approach. I do think it's very unfortunate and clarity is going to come as people have been saying one way or another. There's going to be rulemaking coming out of the agencies and there's been great leadership there. And I think we'll only expect positive things from now until the end of the year. But, yeah, that's really just step one. It's just opening up the rest of the world and opening up the U.S. in particular. The other thing that we're just laser focused on right now is bringing not just 10 stocks, not 100 stocks to Solana.

42:07Armani Ferrante:We want to bring the entire stock market to Solana. One API where you can transform a bona fide security entitlement. So like a real share by any definition of the term and be able to go back and forth to and from your brokerage account to DeFi. You can buy a token on Solana, on SpaceX today, deposit into your brokerage account and transfer it to Backpack, Fidelity, Robinhood, E-Trade, whatever it might be. And so that is perhaps, I would say, the thing I'm most excited about in crypto this year.

42:41Raoul Pal:And how is that technically done? Is that sort of a wrapper that allows you to wrap the underlying security? Because the underlying securities still have the ISDN numbers and all of that stuff.

42:50Armani Ferrante:That's right. Yeah, I mean, conceptually, that's a way to think about it. We're a brokerage ourselves. We hold security entitlements. It's held in a clearing broker holding custody of the shares. And we have the stack to be able to mint and redeem to and from a token. The big difference with our token and other tokens is just you actually get one-to-one fungibility and redeemability for the actual share.

43:13Raoul Pal:You know, and again, the great thing is as crypto has done this already, stuff like Wrapped ETH has been going forever to do stuff, right? It's the same idea that it becomes, you wrap it, it becomes fungible because you can unwrap it later. That's right.

43:25Armani Ferrante:Or a stable coin, USDC.

43:29Raoul Pal:Yeah, but you can't redeem the stable coin really. You get the underlying exposure to the dollar, but with this kind of mechanism, as you say, can go in and out of the traditional system without friction.

43:40Armani Ferrante:Yeah, yeah. I mean, you can redeem a stablecoin if you have a Circle account. Maybe Tether is a bit harder. You can redeem it. It's permissioned. They're like the wholesale model where they have a small amount of participants that actually manage the interfaces like exchanges. We redeem USDC for users all the time. But yeah, I think tokenized stocks are probably closer to stocks than USDC is to cash for that reason. It's because if you actually have one-to-one open access redeemability, then the friction goes down. But, you know, we only have like 100, 200 different symbols on all the chains, right?

44:18Armani Ferrante:Robinhood, Ethereum, Solana, whatever. Right. Going from 200 symbols to 10 ,000 is going to be a huge jump. And that's the next leap that we're going to make. How do you get the bridging liquidity?

44:30Raoul Pal:So when it goes from traditional market liquidity, which is vast, and then comes into an overnight market on a Saturday night in crypto land, right, you're down to a lot less liquidity providers and much smaller pockets.

44:43Armani Ferrante:Yeah, I think you have two models for this. So the first model is just boot shop the liquidity native long chain. It's sitting there. You have pools, prop AMMs, order books, whatever. That's very hard, very capital intensive. Right. It takes, you know, if you want a really liquid market, it's going to take billions of dollars to do that, like at scale. So you can do that for the top 100 symbols probably. And there's a good 80-20 there with respect to volume and just interest. But to do it for the long tail of assets, you need to do it by bridging liquidity. So you don't want to reinvent the wheel.

45:19Armani Ferrante:Those markets are the most liquid capital markets in the world. Just tap into those markets. And so that's kind of what you're seeing with people call them intent systems, where you basically have these intermediaries that have access to these markets. They go out and actually source the shares at the NBBO and then price it and bring it on chain. So I think you'll see a lot of liquidity bridging for those symbols. So at the end of the day, it's the same liquidity.

45:45Raoul Pal:That makes sense. But the big liquidity providers from the high-frequency check trading shops through to the Citadels, None of them are particularly big in crypto yet because the regulation has not allowed it. So it's hard still to access that source of liquidity to bring those guys into the on-chain world. Once they do, and that would apply to DeFi too, it completely changes everything because liquidity is still thin, really.

46:11Armani Ferrante:Yeah, I think it depends on whether you're talking about price discovery or whether you're talking about retail experiences. From a retail point of view, there's no principled reason why you can't have the exact same price execution and the exact same liquidity that you would get on Robinhood or E-Trade or Fidelity, but on Solana. There's no reason why you can't do that. Now, if you're trying to actually have order books and price discovery happening on chain, it's a very different conversation. But I think that's going to be step one. And it really always starts from the retail use case to bootstrap any type of financial market.

46:43Armani Ferrante:And they're the ones that bring the capital on chain. And as that grows, then you have different levels that get unlocked that allow the market to flourish. But level one is going to be going from 200 symbols to 10 ,000 symbols and giving anybody on Solana access or with access to a self-custodial wallet access to everything that you would have on Robinhood. And that's the thing that we're working on that we're most excited about this year.

47:06Raoul Pal:Yeah, it's a very big thing. And collapsing the boundaries between these worlds is the opportunity because we sit on the better rails. So it automatically attracts the capital over time. It will do, just by definition. Well, how do you think prediction markets fits into all of this as well? Because that's been the other kind of big thing that's grown in the background. There's perps, prediction markets, and then the tokenization of stuff. I think there's two different ways to view prediction markets, right?

47:33Armani Ferrante:There's the gambling perspective, and that's dominated a lot of the discourse in the US with things like sports betting. And I think that perspective is viscerally appealing, but does not appreciate the utility that these instruments are actually bringing. And it's really just because sports is such a huge thing, especially in the US. But prediction markets, it's not a gambling instrument, right? It's more akin to a futures contract. It's a futures contract and a super forecaster's platform.

48:07Raoul Pal:That's right.

48:08Armani Ferrante:That's right. That's right. And so I very much view that as part of... You were talking about this data economy or AI intelligence getting access to the world's data or whatever. Prediction markets is just another form of that in a market form factor. And so I think prediction markets, although it maybe starts in a speculative environment like any type of financial instrument does, right? The stock market started in a speculative environment. This is not specific to crypto. It's not specific to prediction markets. You know, 1929 and the 1930s happened. And it's when you are able to wrap your head around kind of what these primitives do, bring good regulation to the space, have like, you know, high integrity and high fidelity platforms and market structure built around it.

48:56Armani Ferrante:Can you harness, you know, that price discovery to actually do productive things for the world? And so I think this is the big jump that prediction markets are already starting to make. Right. Whether they're forecasting, you know, something like, you know, a sports game or something more important like earnings for a company. or even the price of Bitcoin at the end of the day.

49:13Raoul Pal:I mean, don't forget, in the end, all a price is, is a mechanism by which people put in forecasting predictions, right? It's no different. But what you're saying is, yeah, there's a certain structure that we know them as today, but this is basically more like an options market, and it gives you an ability to do it on anything. And that aggregates intelligence around, let's say super forecasters because you can create an edge within it whether it's via an ai or as humans together it's fascinating and where this is going is not why people think exactly as you

49:49Armani Ferrante:say it's a much bigger thing than that i think framing it as intelligence is perhaps the most accurate way to frame it that's all prices it's it's like the global hive mind coming to a conclusion it's compressed intelligence it's everything that every participant knows at that

50:04Raoul Pal:particular moment in time that's right all of the research and everything that's happened that's

50:08Armani Ferrante:price is intelligence yeah that's not using i guess in some sense it actually is using machine learning and neural networks under the hood right that's what all the trading companies are doing they all have neural networks that distill the price of something uh and so it's an indirect emergent form of intelligence rather than a direct output from some lm model or anything like that uh and so i think that's what gets me really excited about it now we've added machines to it

50:31Raoul Pal:as we all blend into one. Yeah, it reflects all of it.

50:36Armani Ferrante:Yeah, yeah. Yeah, the price mechanism that has emerged in the modern Western economy over the past century is perhaps the most important technology that has ever existed in the history of humanity. And it's the social scalability conversation to go back to the early days of Bitcoin and the Nick Zavos of the world. but prediction markets are just a new form of that. And then when you have the internet to scale it

51:08Raoul Pal:and then you add in an infinite TAM from agents and then you add in blockchain as the ledger system for it all okay that's something a lot bigger than people still understand.

51:18Armani Ferrante:These things just take time. Finance is fundamentally political and social technology as it is anything else because it's so deeply ingrained into the way the real world works. And so that world just moves a lot more slowly just by virtue of humans being at the center of it. And so, yeah, we'll see how it shakes out. But I think prediction markets are one of the most exciting kind of new technologies to bear fruit over the past cycle.

51:47Raoul Pal:Yeah, I think the whole space, this is why I love crypto, is like there's so many smart people doing so many smart things and it's not immediately obvious what those things are. because they always get kind of speed run, crashed into the ground, and out of the ashes rises a new phoenix, of which something has been battle-tested that has great use. It's just an amazing space always. It just does it in a hilarious manner, usually. The path of most pain is usually what it does.

52:17Armani Ferrante:That's right, yeah. And the hilarious manner is always the maximally contentious manner. It's like, you know, with prediction markets, we're always talking about sports betting. I even opened up talking about sports betting because that's always the topic. And it's like, why are we throwing the baby out with a bath of water here? That's not the hill to die on. There's so many other use cases here. Sports betting is great and exciting. And there's real bona fide use cases of that that are not just gambling. But it unlocks this whole world of, if you want to frame it as forecasting or intelligence, for every aspect of life.

52:52Armani Ferrante:And I think that's just exciting. I love the Polymarket tagline, the truth machine. it's super elegant and that's i think that's a really succinct way to put it yeah fantastic

53:01Raoul Pal:amani listen fantastic conversation really enjoyed it yeah thank you so much yeah i appreciate it we'll get you back on and check check where you are at some point soon yeah sounds good

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