The Best Trade Is Still Ahead with Jordi Visser | Raoul Pal The Jounry Man

25:42Raoul Pal:You have to. And so it's going to suck in every single piece of information that is possibly has some informational value. And they'll trade at different prices and who gets the monopoly on the data, who doesn't. And that'll all be a hidden market. We won't even see it. There's no prices on a screen. It just happens. Yeah. Luckily for all of us, it'll take such a long time to get to that because of the video side, meaning the ability of taking in everything that we see and comprehend, which is far more data than the actual data in a computer screen. We're just not at the data center side of the video side.

26:19We don't have pure humanoids ability to navigate through everything in the street. And it's going to take a lot of data. It's going to take a lot more compute. Only reason I bring it up is I have started to recognize that the merging of these two, if it wasn't for the compute shortage that we have right now, relative to the capabilities and the acceleration of the intelligence, it would be a much more dystopian world. I'm becoming less worried about the world merging together because of the friction of politics, because of the friction of human beings, because of the bottleneck frictions of physics.

26:54All of these things are actually making it more comfortable for me that we won't get to the point of AGI happening too fast. It'll happen. It probably already has happened, or it already has happened, depending on your definition. But the merging of the worlds of humans in this, it's giving us enough time to actually think about it and go through the thought process while we're worrying about how it's going to play out. And so I'm getting more comfortable that the frictions are good, not bad.

27:19Raoul Pal:Yeah, I agree. And we're seeing the rise of world models versus LLMs. And I think the whole thing verges. But I'm here in Napa, I've rented a Tesla, and I haven't actually driven once. I haven't touched the pedal. It just drives you around. So a lot of it's here already, and people don't realize it. What Google's been able to train off video itself, there's a lot there. And then you're seeing, there was yesterday, I think it was called Atlas. Did you see that? There's a video generation model. I mean, these are wild now. You cannot tell what's film, what's not film. So you can see all the component parts are just blending together.

27:58Raoul Pal:But as you say, I mean, it's a lot of compute, and we just don't have it. Yeah, we don't have it. And that's why from an investable standpoint, we're, we're, we're never, we're not going to get to the point that we can overbuild because we're just, I mean, we can make short term, we could overbuy things and we could have inventories grow up, but we're not going to use all the compute because we need so much of it for everything. and whenever you come up with, oh, I guess there will be enough compute because we've reached this point. And you realize, no, the world models and everything else. And then when you hear how much more compute, I just think that the part, and it was probably Imad that I heard speak recently, who you've had on a bunch of times and I know you know well, where he was a little bit more concerned.

28:43And I don't know how much of this was the book he wrote and how much is actually what believes, but humanoids are going to take some time. And they're the ones that I focus a lot of the attention on. Yes, I know we will have humanoids. Yes, I know by 2030, they might be more than is in my head now. But before they're driving their own car to the delivery, before all of these things, politicians and human beings have to get comfortable with this. And full self-driving is already here, but it's not accepted. You don't see these cars on the road. And that should be the easiest one that argument of less people will die should be enough but because of that i don't know how humanoids don't take a lot longer to be integrated into society yeah and if you think

29:28Raoul Pal:about how long it's taken elon to train the cars to do what they do yep and he's got to get optimus out and yes there's you know abilities have increased but they'll only be putting specific things first you know on a factory line or in a service center or whatever it is at first because they just don't have the compute capacity to have the intelligence because they've got the LLMs, but they don't have the visual spatial awareness that they need to navigate the normal world, the human world. So they have to be in restricted environments. They can still scale massively there. But as you said, we're a long way from robots walking down the street, you know, delivering coffee in humanoid format.

30:11Raoul Pal:It's already happening in, you know, in other robots. You see them in streets everywhere now, delivering stuff. So where I've started, this point is really important for people to hear when they start thinking about the concept of PPI and input costs. Because I've started to think more and more about how humanoids, their most important function over the next five years is going to be in mines. It's going to be in all parts of dangerous jobs related to manufacturing. There's no doubt about it. China's already doing this. If you go look up mining, and the reason I was doing this is because when I get in discussions and people go gold or Bitcoin, I go Bitcoin every single time.

30:48And they go, well, but you believe in gold. And I went, you didn't ask me that. If you ask me what I think will outperform, it's because, and actually one of the most famous macro investors, we got to a long discussion about this in the last 48 hours. So my video came out. He wanted to talk about Bitcoin. He wanted to talk about tokenization, but then it migrated. And I said, but don't you understand that if we can find more gold and get it easier because of humanoids, then the capacity of gold goes up. The reason I'm more interested in Bitcoin is because it's chosen by human beings like gold.

31:22There's a community of people that believe in it, but it's the digital side and there's a scarcity element to it that is real. He wanted to talk about the disruption of hacking and things like that. And I got him to the point of AI will hack everything that your brain can think of, including gold. It will hack it. It already has hacked it at CERN. It's only a question of can we get enough hacking in there to actually change the ability of the supply side of anything? And he agreed by the time the end that you can't pick one and say AI is going to hack this but not hack something else. So I think humanoids is going to have a bigger impact on the input cost of commodities, and that's getting us closer to abundance of cheaper commodities.

32:02So I've started to believe, especially with things like oil and copper and all of these things, people might be underestimating how we're going to grow in these, but I don't think it's ever going to go parabolic.

32:12Raoul Pal:So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. 30. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. So let's just go back to the bottleneck of energy, because this is something we all need to think through. I agree with you. One of the things I think we have, we might have talked about this before, an extended or super cycle here, is because you can't have the excess, because you can't build the data centers fast enough and then you've got this the political weird slant in the u.s that people don't want to data center i don't know what they think data centers are apart from just fucking buildings i mean it's the it's the weirdest thing so i'd love to hear about the energy bottleneck and the u.s political slant all of this which i just can't get my head around so i my head has gotten to the point on this that I'm less, I've become much less worried about the data center side in terms of it being a political issue because it has forced, just like with China, the way DeepSea came out of innovation.

33:29I don't think people give enough credit to how much the behind the meter innovation has been out of control in the US for building the data centers. We have more natural gas than we need. We have pipelines in many, many locations that don't have to deal with the data centers. So I think a lot of these issues are because data centers were going to be built in places that were probably more vulnerable to this. And since that time, since when you start and announce a data center and you're going to do it somewhere near a town and it takes a year to get going and go through all the, well, since then with Colossus and all of the behind the meter solutions that have come out.

34:08I just think whether it's taking turbines from old airplanes and then turning them into gas turbines, whatever the case is, the innovation has been through the roof. And so I think we've solved, let's say, the ultimate problem, which is we just move to areas that are better. The demand for it still grows exponentially, but that fits back into the problem of if it was able to be built, we'd have more data centers being built right now without the bottlenecks of turbines and all these problems. So again, I'm going to err on the side that we don't want it to go too fast. I just think it would be a much bigger negative for the capital markets.

34:43Then you'd really see the pressure on the bond market. I think too much too soon is probably a bad thing and we probably get an overbuild. So I'm going to view the data centers again. The friction is being a positive.

34:54Raoul Pal:Yeah, I'm of the same route there. So what else are you looking at right now? Let's go back to the tokenization conversation, jumping around a bit. So you initially, when you came into crypto, you were very focused on Bitcoin. And once it becomes understandable, it's a very logical asset. Now, when you're seeing through the world of tokenization, where's your head going to here in what that future world looks like? Because I think that's important because a lot of people don't understand this because it used to be a world where they were like competing things and they're not really anymore. No, I, this, this journey, and I get, I think starting as a, as a, let's say a Bitcoin as an asset and a maxi type person and just not believing in at the time in the innovation side.

35:45And I still have that belief that if you ask me over the next 20 years, what am I most certain of? It's that Bitcoin will still be here and it will be the best asset. I don't know if any of the other tokens will still be growing at that point in value, but there will be innovations along the way. And that's what I've kind of come to the conclusion of. And this goes for public equities as well. So where I've got with tokenization is just the importance of it. I spoke at the New York Stock Exchange to just a grouping of Korean brokers, retail, like a hundred of them that were there. Tokenization is real.

36:19It's going to happen. And it is a race. And this is one of the things that I recognize that I don't hear enough people talk about. We all hear about AI as a race and the pressure it's putting on. But I don't think people realize that tokenization and having it in your country, having everything on chain is going to become more critical. So if you're lagging and you're not on chain, your assets are not there, it hurts your market. It hurts the ability for people to buy it because they're going to be using their wallet. This stuff is all going to happen. It's much cheaper to do. They can invest quickly.

36:50The programmable nature of it has become something that I've spent enough time on and just realized the value of it from so many different things, how it should be. So when I've thought about just what a portfolio will look like in the merging of the way old school public equities and debt is with tokenization. The fact that to actually get to tokenization of real world assets, you actually had to get tokenization first of the cash and collateral. You needed money market funds. You needed treasury. So you kind of go through the evolution and you realize, whoa, we're there. And some of the new products, and I think this is because of Robinhood in particular, I just think Robinhood is a perfect place for the merging of what's kind of crypto and not kind of crypto i think they're a perfect middle ground to have the community they have a i don't know if you've been to any of their events they have a strong community like people love their community and people love the real vision real vision community like communities are really important but having a community where their chain is growing rapidly on the tokenization side in a short amount of time and you're seeing those volumes i just think people are underestimating the importance of globally people wanting to trade 24-7, hoping that liquidity is around the clock and that it is being, and I think this is all part of the way the world is going to be.

38:07So I have been completely taken back by it. And the questions I'm now getting asked by macro people are really good ones. What happens to the dollar in tokenization? Like that question, I don't know if you've thought about it. It's a great question to have.

38:22Raoul Pal:I wanted to raise, let's talk about this for a bit, because where my head is at, with all of this, is there's one country has the most attractive assets in the world right now. It's the United States. The moment you put it on chain, the equity market, it just attracts even more capital. It crowds everybody out. And the dollar is the same because the dollar now goes to the end of the line, to the individual. When it had to go through the euro dollar markets before, that's all gone. So if I think when people talk about the collapse of the dollar, whatever. My view has been, and the same with Brent Johnson, is that it dies of its strength.

39:01Raoul Pal:Because if you do that, the dollar will be so strong. It's already been strong over the last decade and a half over time, just cyclical. But if you're going to get every investor, because why would you bother to invest in some European, whatever it is, packaging company, when you can buy NVIDIA. It's very hard, or SpaceX, it's very hard not to attract all of the capital. So although I agree from a, so I've broken this down into two parts. You're bringing up the transaction part and if people have to invest. The issue is right now, 75 % of the investing dollars of the world via MSCI world are in the US already.

39:50So from an equity basis, they're already there. I have viewed public equities as being an issue relative to entrepreneurs. So 10 years from now, I don't think U.S. equities, the growth perspective, is going to be the same that way people see them now. I think entrepreneurs around the globe who use AI, of which countries that are poorer, in my opinion, are adopting AI faster. They're using AI faster. And the reason is because they want to and they have to. And so I know you remember this. I have viewed the Axie Infinity example as something everyone needs to go study and just realize that that example of how an economy grows virtually, people need to think about that with tokenization, in my opinion, because I studied that.

40:39That's what originally got me so interested in crypto. The ecosystem was what was happening with Axie Infinity. The other part of the dollar is control. So from a geopolitical basis, tokenization and all of these things, I think the control goes down because of stable coins and all this. So I agree that there's a positive force of the dollar. I think there's a negative force, which is the more that everything goes on chain, the less control the U.S. has over SWIFT, the less the U.S. has control over sanctions. And then it just becomes something where over time there's no such thing as a collapse.

41:10I view everything as dollars will migrate and distribute around the globe. And it'll take a while for entrepreneurs to compete with Google, but they will. They'll compete with everyone. So it's a gradual kind of growing of the private entrepreneur market and a shrinking of the enterprise market.

41:26Raoul Pal:It's the old trend of bundling, unbundling, centralization, decentralization. And that's what's happened. I mean, look at what you and I are doing ourselves with AI. We would have hired a company to build these things for us. It would have taken us six months, nine months. It wouldn't be perfect. And now we're just doing it on the fly. And that's showing you the direction of travel is that the centralized approach in everything is about to go. Now, there's going to be some centralized players. I mean, good luck trying to disrupt SpaceX, but, you know. Yes, but I agree with you. I think AI and crypto, those are the two most powerful parts of it is they are truly decentralizing.

42:11They are borderless. It allows people to not think about things the way that we all think about them because of the way we grew up. And I already think kids are down that path because of the way things have been with video games, the way things were with every single part of kind of the growth of crypto in 2021 and 2022 during COVID. We will all look back on that as the beginning of really this move into the virtual world for the younger generation in a very big way into crypto. I know with my son, that's when he first got into it. And it drove me into it because I didn't think the metaverse made sense other than the fact that I watched him play video games.

42:47And he was already in the metaverse in 2016. And this was just another extension of it. So we forgot all those things. I know you're heavy into NFTs. NFTs fit into that as well. I just think that it will take some change. But the one thing that has always lasted with all human beings, regardless of their age, at the end of the day, if nothing is growing except for the digital world, then people will invest in the digital world. That's it. Like, if you want growth and investing, that's where you'll be.

43:14Raoul Pal:I'll tell you, I was just thinking, this morning was a great example of how the world has changed so much. So I've built this kind of huge GMI portal within Real Vision that has charts and analysis and AI compression to make sense of it all, all of this stuff across the different tiers. And my AI checks the inbox, the bugs at globalmacroinvestor.com. And it pinged me this morning and said, there's a couple of really good ideas in there that people should be able to go around all these dashboards and tick their favorite charts. And it should create a new page with their favorite charts and whatever.

43:47Raoul Pal:I said, it's a great idea. let's build it and i from getting that email to shipping it to everybody was 40 minutes of which i wasn't doing anything apart from occasionally talking into my whisper and it's launched on real vision and i'm like holy fuck imagine what that would be like before you'd have to call up the company you'd have to have meetings with them you know i want to develop this they come back and And you just, I mean, the collapse in time and cost of developing stuff is stupid. Yeah. And obviously learning. And that's really been my, that's been my big thing has been how quickly I can learn a particular topic because of YouTube, because of the ability of going into X and now not having to search and not know what's there, but actually going to Grok and say, give me the best posts on this particular topic and have it give it to me.

44:44Using and creating a knowledge brain and connecting into the YouTube API and creating the last 20 video transcripts of Jensen Yuang or of Raul Powell or whomever, and then to really get through this. It has gotten to the point where since I launched my subscriber side and I get so many questions, I don't want to give people the answers. I want to give them basically the ability of doing it themselves. And so my, my thought has been empowerment. And with GrokBot, it hit me so hard when I started to use it. And so this, you know, the past week I'd had so many people reach out after a video where I showed them all my age.

45:21And so like, should I really get started? And I literally said, here's the deal, guys, I'm going to give you a five page thing that all you have to do is literally paste this into GrokBot. You will have your chief of staff. You will have different components of it. He will set up all the agents and then you can just start conversing and all you got to do is copy paste copy paste copy paste let it go through its thing and by having the ability of having a youtube that gets enough people having subscribers and getting through it your point's valid it's like i'm trying to empower people to make sure they use ai and to feel like they're growing but the ability of not only giving them answers giving them homework to do on their own and then realizing that the amount of people have reached out saying i never thought i could do any of this type of stuff you know how because I remember when you came to my office and you asked me a question about how I was using it and you're like oh my god we I got to do that too and we were kind of exchanging information on how we were using it so having a community community of of empowered users is just great yeah and but so many people have this fear barrier it's like and grokbot is really good because you can

46:25Raoul Pal:just in very natural language say hey read my x feed and tell me what i've missed on ai every day and give me a summary and it just does it you don't it just says oh do you want me to connect to this and you go yes yes yes done you don't have to do anything no it's um it it as far as i'm concerned um other than see chat gpt all you had to do was kind of do what you did in google search and it didn't take much learning. This situation where you recognize the power of having people working for you and being able to say, hey, put together the newspaper for me of what I care about and have it ready for me at five in the morning, which I have it due for me in crypto.

47:11And then I give it the websites that I want it to go search on and just give me the most important things, match them up with X and make sure these are trending stories as well. Like, I don't think people realize that like customizing the news that you want, have it delivered to you from overnight. It's just a very powerful thing to be able to do using something like that.

47:32Raoul Pal:And that's one of the most simple things to do now. Exactly. It's really not that complicated. But how do you deal with, we briefly touched on this in the beginning. How do you deal with all of having all of the agents and all of the scheduled tasks and all of the things? Because I find if I'm not careful, it's like two hours of my morning is fixing shit that didn't happen. The Google Drive connector went down. This happened. And then I've spent the last two days working with my COO to go and automatically fix all this stuff. And then that doesn't, it's like, it's not, it's not simple all the time.

48:06Well, OpenClaw was what you described to me was what I went through with OpenClaw. Eventually Hermes, exact same thing. So whenever anyone says this is perfect, it was never perfect, ever. um, you had to deal with errors that would pop up and you did have to deal with your computer, you know, and a true story, uh, cleaning lady comes over and closes my, my, my, my laptop. And all of a sudden I'm like, wait, where's my agent? And I'm like asking him, there's nothing going on and I can't get anything now. I don't have to deal with that with GrokBot. And so it still makes errors, but I've only been using it for less than whatever, three weeks.

48:48and it's not perfect, but I will tell you the ability of going in and signing into my actual logon on Twitter and it being able to go through my lists of stuff is very powerful. To do that with anything that I want software wise and have it on a virtual computer that it's going in, it does a lot of things where I think the more important thing is the getting used to it, knowing how to use it, what it can be good for. And that way, when it actually gets better, which you know it will, and a year from now it'll be completely different than it is today, you have to develop the brain set of knowing how you'd use it.

49:21Raoul Pal:Yeah, but now I've got the problem is I've got agents on GrokBot, agents on Hermes, agents on Claude. You know, and now I need a COO across all of my agents. I've migrated some of my stuff over already, but I don't think I went as far into it as you did. I will tell you one of the best things that I use them for is something that is very similar to my days at Morgan Stanley and at the hedge fund, which was using them as a team of people, calling a meeting. We all get together. I tell the chief of staff, let's get together. I have this problem that I want to solve for. And I had a situation last week where the way that I did my videos, the company that the software I used basically said they were going out of business on a Wednesday.

50:10Now, I do my video recording on a Friday. So I had to put this together in a completely different way. So I called a staff meeting and I went into GrokBot and I literally went through it and I said, all right, how are we going to solve this problem? What's the best way to get through it? And I'm telling you, Raul, it was literally like being a Morgan Stanley, being a managing director, having everyone come into the room. We got a problem to solve. Let's solve it. And we got to the point and literally it was, okay, you should use Google Slides to do it, which is what I did, ended up doing over the weekend.

50:41And in the end, when I asked them, okay, is this going to save me time? And they said, it'll definitely save you time. Now, along the way to learn Google Slides. So it's one thing for them to say, you should use Google Slides. Well, if it's not something I use all the time, I needed them to help me along the way of, okay, will you make sure you're on top of this? Who's the expert on Google Slides? And so that agent, I worked with one by one by one until I was able to do it. And it took me, I want to say a few hours to honestly not be an expert at Google Slides, but now I can do 100 video slide video.

51:16And I was able to do that switch over from a Wednesday to a Thursday morning. And you know how stressful that type of stuff can be when you're wanting to get something done that you do regularly.

51:27Raoul Pal:It's just, it's amazing. I've had many people now ask me, I wrote about it in GMI. actually i'm like this is what i'm using ai for and this is what i've built and i'm in the middle of building and people are like holy shit i'm like yeah it's a lot it's a lot now i got a question for you how many people do you meet because we're right around the same age our age so straddling the 60 uh area that are not technology people like i always had people working for me you had people working for me you didn't need to be an expert how many people do you meet our age non-technology people that you see using it as actively and in the ways that we are zero they have to be running a business even then yeah you're right think of your friends yeah you've kind of the people you grew up with not friends that you know from x and this world but even when you go to your trading friends and people who work at hedge funds they might have an analyst who's using ai to do stuff nobody's doing what we're doing but then everybody the other group around me everybody's doing this but in the world in the traditional world they're not it's like it's really weird i it's it's impossible for me to describe and And so my business, so we've been talking like every three months.

52:59So I launched my subscriber side in February of this year. And the amount of things I put up every week. Is that all?

53:07Raoul Pal:It feels like it's much longer. No. Well, the YouTube started two years ago. That's right. I didn't actually start a subscriber wall until February. And what has happened, and this is the most unbelievable thing, forget the growth in the community. That's great, and I appreciate everyone doing it. I'm more how much work I do a week that gets uploaded to there for them. It's anywhere from 7 to 12 things a week that I build. I upload in there. These are from code that I write or have built for me. They're ideas that I come up with. I'm starting a crypto portion that will be part of the site as of the end of this month, and that's why I'm spending so much time on tokenization, and I built out.

53:51and you i don't know if you've done this i i have talked to jamie a bunch of times we've converse we've you know shared information on this but my whole belief has been that if you take an equal weight of the ecosystem of the best tokens covering a diversified in my case 10 sectors with inside crypto and you put in any public stocks like circle i even have robin hood i have PayPal into this, into the different verticals of the merging, the correlation between that equal weight basket with Bitcoin is close to one. There's not much difference when you go through it. And the reason I wanted to do that, as I've said to people, you have to understand from my perspective, the S &P 500 is this amorphous thing.

54:34It doesn't mean anything. It has innovation that gets rid of the losers and keeps the winners and it changes. And if you believe in hyper competition and hyper speed, that means growth companies will be leaving it faster than they've ever left it before because you will be disrupted. You will be moved out. And we've obviously seen that fears over the software names. And you've seen it even with Anthropic. And people get worried that their ARR is stalled. And I do believe that we're in this hyper-competitive world. So my endgame has always been the same, which is what Bitcoin ends up representing is the only true scarcity thing of a store of value.

55:07So if your job investing is to pick things that are growing and then they stop growing, your job is to get rid of that and find the next grower. Well, while you're looking for the next grower, you need to put your money into a store of value. So Bitcoin theoretically should equal all of that. And it does. And that's what makes me feel good. And that's what, again, brings me back to the point of when you're using AI and you're on top of how fast the world is changing and that Bitcoin is directly related to the disruption from AI. It's related to the fact that in a world of abundance, you need to find things that are truly scarce that people believe in.

55:40And there's not many things that are truly scarce that people believe in. And there's plenty of things that are scarce right now, but I don't believe they'll be scarce in the future. And that's where it always ends up as Bitcoin ends up being here. And along the way, we pick and choose innovations that we think are going to do well. I think Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin over the next year because of the tokenization boom and the stablecoin boom. And what we said about the volume, the velocity and people understanding, theoretically, Ethereum is a commodity related to the blockchain. And if there's only a certain amount of places, we're going to run into compute.

56:09And so I've kind of said to people, it's not a direct relationship, but I view Ethereum because of the trust factor of this merge. And I'd like to hear your – because I know you've been into other – into Solana, Insui, and other places that have gone through. My belief has been that for the banks and all these people, Ethereum, because of its size, because of the time it's been there, and because of how difficult it is for people to trust something new, that the trust factor is going to be a very important part of the financial guardrails. And so I've started to accept the fact that I want to be on top of the innovation related to tokenization.

56:42I want to be on top of what's going to happen. But that's where I've kind of gotten to with this whole subscriber thing on this. I think we spend far too much time, everybody, in choosing stuff to buy and sell. Agreed.

56:58Raoul Pal:Really? You could own Bitcoin, the NASDAQ. I'd probably do nothing else. And you'll be fine. If you want to own a bit of gold, but you've got, you know, it doesn't really matter because it's, you know, Bitcoin does roughly the same kind of thing. But, you know, that's all you need to actually do. And you never need to turn on your screen again. And in crypto, I've got it down very simply is obviously Bitcoin. I also like the Zcash privacy narrative. So you have a little bit of that and a big bit of that. Okay, fine. But then you've got the whole smart contract there. and that doesn't represent it at all.

57:37Raoul Pal:They're correlated, but they're not the same thing. And simply, I just used cloud and other big networks and said, well, there's generally four or five that are dominant and one is more dominant than others. And so you just look at that and say, okay, well, what are they? Well, the two clear ones right now are Ethereum and Solana and then you've got others and let's see. Hyperliquid's different because it's sort of more of a business built on blockchain. and a lot of the others are businesses built on the technology. What did cloud enable? What did all of these things enable? And that's a harder bet right now because we're still early in the infrastructure bet.

58:19Raoul Pal:So that's all I just think is like you just buy a basket of three to five smart contract chains. You can even market cap weight them for now. It's fine. And a bit of Bitcoin and a bit of Zcash and you just don't have to do anything. Or the other level of the portfolio is you just buy some NASDAQ Buy some Bitcoin, buy some ETH, buy some gold. I just don't do anything else for a long time. And yet we write so much, and people want dashboards and business cycles and technical analysis and all of this stuff. And actually, you don't really need to. You weren't going to say stuff. I know what you're going to say.

58:57So wait, let's go back then because another comment. By your face, you're like, yeah, it's true. um we uh we both love studying the human brain we both love understanding um psychology consciousness so let's go back to what you said at the beginning why do you think people do this because i agree with you that it's completely unnecessary so why do you think people do it

59:21Raoul Pal:i have my own thoughts it's a sense of control of agency it's like you have some control over your financial future. If you have a set it and forget it portfolio, it's like you have no control. It just does it. And yes, it probably works. But people feel like they feel a desperate need to get ahead. And we've talked about this before. Speculation, prediction markets, sports betting, it's all part of the same trend, which is people don't have enough money. Debasement of currency kind of screwed people over and they want to take control so but people turn themselves into knots over this stuff i mean i see it on the real vision platform you know they're desperately searching for a guru or a system or a products or a something and it's like it doesn't exist guys it's like the markets are an amalgamation of all of us and that's what's in the price bizarrely

1:00:21so i think um it doesn't mean say you can't outperform or under you know all of that stuff

1:00:27Raoul Pal:you know the gmi track record is you know one of the best that's been but because that's time horizon really but yeah i don't know there's just some horrible truth to all of this so the reason people are willing to put a hundred percent of their money it also doesn't sell newsletters correct that is true well see now we're getting to the difference that i'm more so i've thought about why people complain and i live in williamsburg i see the building chat everyone complains everyone in this this place voted for mom donnie like it's it's a it's a unique place so they vote for mom donnie they complain about how expensive things are but then i see them all traveling to the hamptons and i see them all going on flights and i see them all spending money so So there's some disconnect because they say they're poor, but they live in a building that costs a lot of money and they're traveling over the place.

1:01:19So I've kind of come to the belief that people are all looking for the next big thing. And it's this hope that they found something that no one else found and they're going to make money and go through it because nobody, the S &P 500, you're investing in 500 companies. So if you put all of your money in the S &P 500, you've invested in 500 companies. but if someone said i have all my money in the sp500 like we should put more in the nasdaq you should put it here by the time you're done it's like well you've diversified into such a level but if you say i've invested all my money in bitcoin people think you're crazy and the reason is because it can it would be gone and i view it as being all things but it's compounded it you don't need the next big thing like it's compounded to your point nasdaq same thing why are you searching to compound at a higher level than two things that if you did them 50 50 have compounded at such a high level if you make it a third a third a third with the s &p 500 guys since the bitcoin white paper you don't need to do anything else you're outperforming everything that needs to happen i just think people are never happy and i think we're in this world where it's kind of playing out where the you're fighting you're you're going upstream because you're comparing yourself to people that have made so much money and it's in this world of assets going to the level they are,$180 trillion in the US of net worth, I think it's this mystical thing that people believe they're going to get into that$180 trillion by just buying something at a penny that'll go up to$1 ,000.

1:02:45It's just not going to happen. And I think they should just compound in the things that work like you. Yeah, and focused on increasing your income. Exactly.

1:02:53Raoul Pal:That's the thing that actually makes the difference, because you have more ability to invest. You can dollar cost average. You can compound over time. People forget that bit. But if you figure a way to just take the compounding and you take the NASDAQ, S &P, and Bitcoin since the white paper came out, and you do a third, a third, a third, and you just go through and you're like, okay, here's the compounding number. And let's assume by going through that, it's 33%. And you're like, okay, if I compound at 33 % and you go, okay, now go do your income, compound it at 33 % and see where you'll be in 20 years just by taking 20 % of that income, 15 % of that income, letting it grow and always taking 15%.

1:03:35You'd be shocked at how much money you have in 20 years.

1:03:38Raoul Pal:So here's a question. Of our theoretical idiot-proof portfolio, do you rebalance? Because if not, you've got 97, 98 % Bitcoin. And I don't believe in rebalancing, but you've got no diversification now at all. So the Nasdaq can outperform for five years and not move the dial at all. It's still all Bitcoin returns. I don't know how to think about that. So when people have asked me, and I guess now that I've been a part of the community long enough, I've never sold a Bitcoin. I've never sold anything in it. And it's just amazing. You haven't either? I've switched, but I've never taken money out of digital assets ever.

1:04:24Raoul Pal:I've never had a transaction that brings money back into the bank. It's always a bigger number. And part of it is appreciation. But part of it is as I get more money and I don't need to buy anything else in my life. So I have what I want. Everything is to me about a trip that I want to take or this and that. So I'm one of the lucky people that's made enough money in life where I don't need to go out and spend money. I'm not buying more. I own a home in Maine. That's it. Like, that's it. I don't need anything. I have a Tesla from 2021. I'm just not a spender. I never have been. I just don't care.

1:05:01I have no interest in rebalancing because I don't need to. And I'm not thinking about it in that way. and I do view it as if that money continues to grow, that's a better life for my kids or a better life for me giving away or whatever the case is down the road. But it's something I believe in. And I wrote a sub stack, which I still believe. I was trained at the racetrack by my father. I started going on the racetrack, according to my mother, way before I can remember. But from the time that I can remember, which must be four to five years old, he was teaching me how to handicap a horse race. And I wrote this sub stack about the greatest odds I've ever seen on something.

1:05:41And the building of the digital asset rails, the belief that AI will disrupt the fiat system, and that more and more people will migrate that money over to here, which you believe in and I believe in. And it's funny, I heard you say, because I get asked the question all the time, so what's your price on Bitcoin? And I go, okay, I'm not going to do this anymore, but here's what I will do. I think the size of the digital asset world will be at least a hundred trillion dollars. And I do that not as like a random starting point, but if it's 700 trillion on one side of the equation, and I believe that that money is going to grow over there and it'll be a combination of that side, either not growing or going down to some degree and this side growing, it has to get to that level.

1:06:28There's no other way that that can happen. It's the digital economy, and it has to grow that way. So when you get back to it, and I go, well, then what do you think? I'm like, well, then it gets back to how much you think Bitcoin will be as a percentage of that number. And if I say it'll never go below 33%, which is what I believe, then I can come up with a number that I can make an argument towards. That's the way I think about this whole thing and kind of the migrate. It's always funny that you and I trained in a similar way, thinking of markets in a macro perspective, completely different in terms of the way we kind of, I'd say, get to the end game.

1:06:59And we end up with similar numbers.

1:07:02Raoul Pal:But the thing I think we both appreciate the most is, you know, the most exciting time of our entire career is now. And we've gone through all sorts. We've seen some really amazing stuff. And now it's like this is, I mean, the most concentrated you've ever had to be. Diversification kind of means nothing at this. and it's the most exciting time to be alive and to be part of this is amazing. And to help people in their journey as well of this is really special. Can you imagine if you would have said five years ago, the S &P will be growing 33%, job hiring will be zero, profit margins will be going parabolic, not just in the US, but globally.

1:07:51we'd be having a cancer vaccine come out we'd be you can go through and people would be worried about whether 10-year yields are five and three quarters or 5.8 percent or 5.9 percent like i just i think the social media world i think the it's too good it can't possibly be this good i didn't think i would feel this good i'm going to be 60 years old in march i didn't think i'd feel this good at this age. I didn't think I'd be able to work out every single day and think about anti-aging and going through this. So I just, I'm, I agree with you. It's the best time, the most enjoyable time, and I'm learning more than I've ever learned in my life.

1:08:29So I feel younger and in almost every way I can possibly be younger.

1:08:33Raoul Pal:Fantastic. Geordi, as ever, my friend, fantastic conversation. And I always look forward to our next one. Same here, Raul. Get out of Napa. And don't forget to pre-order of my book of course what's the name of it the everything code because it's actually written with ai it's the first major book that a major publisher so it's pan mcmillan um and harriman house they trained their ai on all of my content and i gave them content and then they built the narrative of the book and i helped craft it with the editor yeah but it was it collapsed the the time to write a proper book from however long to a much shorter period of time.

1:09:16Raoul Pal:It's been an amazing thing. So anyway. You're not worried about the Wall Street Journal and the drug AI op-ed fiasco? You're not worried about that? At least you're disclosing it. Well, the whole thing is disclosed as this is the first book ever done this way. And it's written by me. It's all my content and crafted, but yeah. Let's see how it goes down. It'll be interesting. But it's the first one ever. I'm looking forward to it. I obviously have seen the everything code uh i i've probably listened to more podcasts with you talking about it and i i believe that hearing this hearing a person talk about the same thing multiple times i always absorb more because there's something either i missed or something that went through so i will certainly get the book all right my friend well good to see you as ever and i'll see you soon see you soon well another great conversation with geordie now remember if you want to carry on the conversation with me about any of my content, any of the videos, any of the conversations, or my investing frameworks, just go to ralpal.ai, and you can talk to me in my own voice.

1:10:19Raoul Pal:And that's trained on all of the information that will help you in your journey. So see you there. Token 2049 Singapore, the world's largest crypto event, returns to Marina Bay Sands on the 7th of 8th of October. On stage will be myself, Jeff Yan from Hyperliquid, Shane Copland from Polymarket, and the Real Vision community gets 10 % off tickets. Claim yours using the link below. See you there. You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas, and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future.

1:11:03Raoul Pal:So get started now. Go to realvision.com forward slash join.