In short
Rule Breaker Investing Podcast Episode Summary: Market Cap Game Show: Bubble Wrap & Sidewalk Robots
Podcast Overview Host: David Gardner Guests: Bill Barker, Matt Argersinger Producer: Bart Shannon Episode Date: December 2025
Description: In this holiday edition of the Market Cap Game Show, host David Gardner guides listeners through a game that connects intuition with valuation. Bill Barker and Matt Argersinger compete to secure a spot in the upcoming Market Cap Madness championships, discussing various companies and their market caps.
---
Key Concepts
- Market Capitalization: Understanding market cap as the product of a company’s share price and total shares outstanding is fundamental to investing.
- Game Structure: Contestants estimate the market cap ranges for various companies and compete against each other and the audience.
---
Episode Highlights
- Introduction to the Game
- David introduces the concept of market capitalizations and how they are calculated.
- The Market Cap Game Show has been a recurring feature since 2017, engaging listeners in a fun and educational competition.
- Contestants
- Bill Barker and Matt Argersinger, both seasoned advisors, are the guests participating in the game.
- The format includes guessing market cap ranges for a series of ten companies.
- Company Discussions
a. Shopify (SHOP)
- Market Cap Guess: Matt estimated $150 - $190 billion; Bill disagreed, stating it was above that range.
- Actual Market Cap: Approximately $217 billion.
b. Vail Resorts (MTN)
- Market Cap Guess: Bill estimated $8 - $21 billion; Matt disagreed, predicting it was higher.
- Actual Market Cap: About $5.54 billion, leading to a point for Matt.
c. Arista Networks (ANET)
- Market Cap Guess: Matt guessed $65 - $90 billion; Bill disagreed.
- Actual Market Cap: $154.74 billion, giving Bill a point.
d. Tesla (TSLA)
- Market Cap Guess: Bill estimated $1.1 - $1.4 trillion; Matt agreed with him.
- Actual Market Cap: $1.583 trillion, resulting in a point for Bill.
e. DreamFinders Homes (DFH)
- Market Cap Guess: Matt estimated $750 million - $1.5 billion; Bill disagreed.
- Actual Market Cap: $1.7 billion, awarding Bill another point.
f. Endava (DAVA)
- Market Cap Guess: Bill's range was $300 - $600 million; Matt guessed $600 - $900 million.
- Actual Market Cap: $300.75 million, giving Bill the point again.
g. Insight Corporation (INCY)
- Market Cap Guess: Matt guessed $10 - $30 billion; Bill disagreed.
- Actual Market Cap: $19.31 billion, leading to a point for Matt.
h. Qualcomm (QCOM)
- Market Cap Guess: Bill estimated $150 - $230 billion; Matt agreed.
- Actual Market Cap: $186.87 billion, resulting in another point for Bill.
i. Sealed Air (SEE)
- Market Cap Guess: Matt's range was $5 - $12 billion; Bill agreed.
- Actual Market Cap: $6.08 billion, giving Bill another point.
j. Serv Robotics (SERV)
- Market Cap Guess: Bill estimated $1 - $3 billion; Matt disagreed.
- Actual Market Cap: $742 million, rewarding Bill once again.
---
Final Scores
- Bill Barker: 6 points
- Matt Argersinger: 4 points
Insights and Lessons
- The importance of understanding market caps and the disparity in estimates based on knowledge and intuition.
- The humorous banter and camaraderie between the contestants add a light-hearted element to the educational experience.
Closing Remarks David Gardner thanks the guests and reminds listeners to engage with upcoming episodes and to explore investing principles, including pre-ordering his new book, "Rule Breaker Investing". The podcast emphasizes the significance of market caps in evaluating company value and encourages listeners to continue learning.
---
Key Takeaways
- Market caps provide an essential measure of a company's size and value.
- Engaging with market cap estimations can enhance understanding of investment dynamics.
- The interplay of knowledge, intuition, and humor makes financial discussions more accessible and enjoyable.
---
This summary encapsulates the essence of the podcast episode and serves as both a refresher and an educational tool for those interested in investing insights and market valuation principles.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00The price per share of a stock tells you almost nothing. It's one number. But how many shares exist? In math, you multiply two factors, price times shares outstanding. Without the second, you can't do meaningful math or understand much of the market. Fools with a capital F know that price times shares equals market capitalization, a company's actual price tag. To make that lesson stick, we invented a game. On August 9th, 2017, The Market Cap Game Show was born. We've played it every quarter since. And you're playing too. Against my guest stars, your spouse, your kids, your dog, can you outscore my talented contestants?
0:45Well, it's that time again. Ten new stocks, three guest stars, longtime Motley Fool advisors Bill Barker and Matt Argersinger, and you, only on this week's Rule Breaker Investing. It's the Rule Breaker Investing Podcast with Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner.
1:08Welcome back to Rule Breaker Investing. This is the Market Cap Game Show played here for the 38th time now in December 2025. Joining us this week are Bill Barker and Matt Argersinger, two longtime Motley Fool advisors, stock pickers, personalities. Is that a fair term, guys? Makes sense to me. Hope so. Sure. I would say at this point, yeah. So two Motley Fool personalities known well by our Motley Fool members, readers, and fans over the last couple of decades. Bill and Matt will be competing for the final seat in our March Market Cap Madness Final Four, joining with returning world champion Emily Flippen, past world champion Andy Cross, and the upstart, the dark horse, Lauren Hurst.
1:52Emily, Andy, Lauren, and one of these two gentlemen. And of course, the third player to us, the most important is you. That's right, you, our dear fellow Foolish listeners. So just a quick reminder to you as we play along, the market cap is a simple way to measure the value of stocks of public companies. You simply multiply today's share price by the number of shares outstanding, and that gives you the market cap. These days, market caps range from$4 trillion at the high end, companies like Nvidia and Apple, right down to, well, it can be quite a low number in some cases. And no spoilers, we might have one or two of those today.
2:33As my producer Bart begins to crank up our signature market cap game show music, let me just remind especially new listeners, new players, how this game works. I'll be mentioning a stock. Neither Bill nor Matt knows what stock is coming. I'll turn to one of them and ask that fool to state a numerical range within which the market cap falls. His best estimate. The other contestant and you playing at home will simply say, I agree, meaning it's accurate. The stock's value falls inside that range or I disagree. I think it's outside that stated range. So you simply agree or disagree. And if you get it right, give yourself a plus one.
3:14That's the Market Cap Game Show. We're focused on the real market caps of real stocks. Nobody knows the next stock that's coming. A perfect score would be 10. All right, Matt Argersinger helped initiate the Market Cap Game Show, having been there with me in 2017 as we debuted the show. So he is the OG. Matt currently works on The Motley Fool's Dividend Investor, Ultimate Income, and Supernova Services. You can also catch him regularly on the Motley Fool Money podcast. He enjoys traveling, collecting vintage comic books, and most of all, spending time with his wife and six-year-old son. Welcome back, Matt.
3:54Thank you, David. Happy holidays. Happy holidays to you, sir, and to all listening. Let's proceed to stock number one. Matt, if you had to start a side hustle this weekend, what would you sell? I feel like I may have just read it in your bio. I just read it. I think if I had to, because I just know the business a little bit and I have some experience in it, I'd probably start selling comic books online. And for the fun of it, Matt, what are some of your favorite or most valuable vintage comic books? Well, I have a growing collection of, if you're a DC Comics fan, adventure comics, action comics from kind of the World War II era is kind of my bag nowadays.
4:30And so I've got a few valuable ones within that era. That's awesome. Have you ever sold some? I have. I have sold some. So you are a trader. You're in and out. A little bit. I would say I'm a very limited trader, more of a long-term holder of comic books. I think we can appreciate that. Yeah. Matt, if you did do this side hustle this very weekend, would you want to sell it on someone else's platform or on a site that's yours? Probably on someone else's platform just because any site that I would build up probably wouldn't have enough of an audience to get a great value. So I think that makes a lot of sense.
5:01And that choice points us to Shopify, ticker symbol SHOP. Shopify provides the software infrastructure that lets individuals and businesses set up and run their own online stores, handling payments, inventory, and logistics. I think it's a lot easier to do this with them than by yourself these days. Sellers can own their storefront and customer relationship rather than relying on a marketplace. It is a Canadian company. I think a lot of us who follow this company, a lot of people listening right now, own some Shopify, I think. founded by Toby Lutka, a lifelong programmer and gamer who originally built the software simply to sell snowboards online.
5:40And it has since grown into one of Canada's most valuable enterprises. Matt Argesinger, what is your stated market cap range for Shopify, ticker symbol SHOP? David, I think I'm going to go with between$150 billion and$190 billion. All right. $150 billion to$190 billion. Bill Barker turning to you. Are you a Shopify customer? Have you used their services? I have not. Not that I'm aware of. How about like the shop pay? Do you ever use Shopify to pay for things on other people's online stores? No. No. Do you buy things online, Bill Barker? I do. Are you familiar with e-commerce? He's on eBay like me, probably.
6:25There's a lot of Amazon, a few other niche places. It is particularly helpful this time of year, I will point out. Oh, yeah. I think you know that. It's going to be a big - I know my wife is a regular Shopify buyer, so she knows it. Bill, Matt said$150 billion to$190 billion. Players at home, Bill Barker, do you want to agree or disagree? I am going to disagree with that. And if you agreed with Bill that you disagreed with Matt, give yourself a plus one. It is a little bit bigger. That was a generous range, Matt, and not a bad call. But Shopify, it's worth pointing out, these prices are all as of noon, Wednesday, December 17th, a week before this airs.
7:07That's because we all have something else to do, I think, on December 24th, probably. So we're recording a week ahead. So the market cap as we speak is 216.79 billion, but who needs an extra decimal? So$217 billion outside Matt's stated range. I feel good about that. Not that I would have had a better range. I was disagreeing, but on the low end, right for the wrong reasons. Yeah, you know, in my head, I was thinking it was somewhere in the high 100s. That was for some reason in my head, but just short. It was recommended first in Motley Fool Rule Breakers by Carl Thiel. The date was February 24th, 2016.
7:44The cost base is$2.10 a share. It has been a mega winner, not just for Rule Breakers, but for many other Motley Fool services and many Motley Fool members. This is one of our most broadly held stocks. It has been a huge winner. How about Toby Lutka with the whole, I'm trying to sell my snowboards online. Let's just start something. I love it. That's similar, similar to the eBay origin story, right? Yeah. Even the Bezos origin story. Yeah. Maybe we should act on those instincts more often. Matt, have you thought maybe this weekend it's time to start, you know, finish comic book business? I think I might have to get on that.
8:19Why not? Use Shopify. All right. I count it as Bill Barker, one. Matt Argersinger, zero. Let's move on to stock number two. Bill Barker has been with The Fool for 26 years in between stints as a trial lawyer and federal terrorist asset investigator. That's for real. but is mostly known in fooldom for inflicting sporadic episodes of Apropos of Nothing on unsuspecting podcast listeners during the days of market foolery. He plays a little tennis and other racket sports, roots for the Yankees, and by his own reckoning, sings and dresses about two standard deviations below the median. Back from helping to start up Motley Fool Asset Management over a decade ago, Bill now writes again for The Fool, working on Hidden Gems and Firecrackers.
9:02Bill, great to have you back. And among your many talents and exploits in this world, yes, you are a serious racket sport athlete. We've talked about that in the past. You're a past winner of the court tennis championships for your age group. Am I right? That is correct. It's a very small pond that I get to be a big fish in. But it's still something I enjoy doing. Fantastic, Bill. Let me tweak that question a little bit. Do you have another sport that you ever turn to, maybe one that doesn't use a racket, that maybe uses a completely different muscle set? I personally? Yeah. No, no, no. It's all racket sports.
9:40It's just all racket all the time. Yeah, yeah. There's constant tennis elbow. There are enough racket sports to keep me entertained, but I understand that others try some different sports. Yes, there are other sports outside of racket sports. By the way, court tennis, which some people call real tennis, I don't know if they do so with attitude, but that was how the game was founded, right? Give us a little bit more on court tennis. Well, for several hundred years, it was the only game known as tennis. And the origins are, I don't know, the 14th century French monastery, something like that. First racket sport, all racket sports are descended from it.
10:16Eventually, the game that most people think of as tennis was created and patented. It didn't even really evolve. It was a single individual who saw the need for a simpler game or saw the money that might be available from creating a simpler game. And for, I don't know, 100 years or so, that game was known as lawn tennis. And then it was not always played on lawns. And eventually it just became known as tennis. Thank you for a little bit of history. So have you ever skied? I have skied. Not well. That line of thinking brings us to Baylor Resorts. I didn't really get my transition. I just figured, Bill, I thought you played some other sport.
10:59Like you've skied some. I have skied some, but because of, as I pointed out, the fact that I don't ski well and don't know how to ski properly and yet do not take those two things into consideration when I ski. Yes. I think, well, I can try the harder slopes. Why not? My friends are doing it. Yeah, can be dangerous. My friends who do ski. Yeah. And you can get hurt probably worse in skiing than in court tennis. Anyway, Vail Resorts is the stock we're talking about here, ticker symbol MTN. Vail Resorts owns and operates destination ski resorts across North America, Europe, and Australia, making its money from lift tickets, of course.
11:45season passes, lodging on mountain spending, all tied to a highly seasonal but deeply habitual sport. The company's leaned into that seasonality through its epic pass, encouraging skiers and riders to commit up front and then return again and and again across its network of mountains. Bill Barker, what is your stated market cap range for Vail Resorts, ticker symbol MTN? It's going to be a wide one. He's staring me down. You can't see it, but he's staring me down, trying to think what's going to trip up Matt over here. $8 billion to$21 billion. $8 billion to$21 billion. Matt, do you ski? I ski.
12:29I love skiing. You love skiing. In fact, I think I saw a picture of you on social media or maybe on Slack and Motley Fool headquarters. I think you're dressed up as a skier. That's right. It's actually up on Park City, and I'm pointing to a sign that says Dividend, which is one of the runs that you can do at Park City. That is awesome. Park City, owned by Vale Resorts. You know that. Seems like Matt might have an edge here. Down 1-0. It would be awfully nice to make this point. Matt, Bill said$8 billion to$21 billion, if I remember it right. Do you want to agree with that or disagree with that range?
13:00I'm going to disagree with that range. I think it's a lot bigger, Bill. Players at home, what do you think? I'm going to give you three seconds. Three, two, one, say it. All right, you said it. And if you, along with Matt, also disagreed, give yourself a plus one. Because sure enough, Bill, despite, according to himself, a somewhat generous range, nevertheless missed it. Vail Resorts has not been a great stock in recent years. It's down to a market cap right now of$5.54 billion,$5.5 billion, which is lower than Bill's rather generous range. Matt, your jaw dropped a little bit. Are you kind of surprised to hear that?
13:35I am surprised. You know, I thought it was bigger, actually. I thought even though Bill had a high number on the high side, I actually thought it was bigger than that. Yeah. I mean, this is a company that owns 42 mountain resorts, Vail, Whistler, Blackcomb, Park City. You mentioned it makes money not just from Epic Pass even or Lyft tickets, lodging, dining, retail. Matt, I see your dividend investor service. If I see this right, I think you have had Vail Resorts on the scorecard and maybe put it on hold last year. Do you know, is it still sitting there on hold or not? It's not on hold. It's kind of a quirk with our site that looks like it's still on hold.
14:13It is back to an active recommendation, but we did put it on hold for a few reasons about a year and a half ago. Well, clearly, you know this company probably better than most. I actually initially recommended this for Motley Fool Stock Advisor at 47 in 2013. It's now over 160. You'd think I'd be pretty happy with more than a triple, but the market is actually more than quadrupled. So this has been an underperformer. Now look back 12 years later. I trust it will return to days of outperformance, Matt. Who knows? That's not the purpose of the market cap game show. We're just trying to nail the market caps, and you just did by disagreeing.
14:48Players at home, if you also disagreed, give yourself a plus. One, I count Bill one, Matt one. Let's move on to stock number three. Matt, here's something that I have noticed. Some of the more important technology companies in the world are run by leaders that most consumers have never heard of. And they seem perfectly happy that way. Not everybody is an egotistical king of capitalism trying to take over the world. What do you make of that? Well, I mean, I think that's the reality of how the market is. It doesn't always have to be the king of anything. And when you encounter a company that's been executing steadily for many years, without much noise or hype, and if you were to mention the company name, most people wouldn't be able to name the CEO.
15:30what are the first things that you would look to to understand more about that company or business beyond just who's sitting in the executive seat? Well, I think kind of where it stands within its industry. It probably has, if it's been doing what it's been doing for a long time and successful, it probably has a significant market share and probably doesn't have a lot of competition chasing it down. Probably has high profit margins, those kind of things. That brings us to Arista Networks, ticker symbol A-N-E-T. Arista designs high-performance networking equipment used inside large data centers, helps cloud providers and enterprises move massive amounts of data quickly and reliably, work that most end users, of course, never see, kind of like its female CEO, Jayshree Ulal, one of the longest-tenured leaders in enterprise tech.
16:19And Arista, by the way, has been a longtime foolholding across multiple services by just quietly doing one thing extremely well. Matt Argesinger, what is your stated market cap range for Arista Networks, ticker symbol A-N-E-T? David, I am going to go with a range of$65 billion to$90 billion. $65 billion to$90 billion. Bill, is this a stock that you maybe own or have ever looked at? It's not a stock I've owned. It's something that was on a watch list at one time for my days in the asset management, but it was never really something that ended up getting bought, at least while I was there. Don't know what they're buying these days.
17:03You mean you don't know all stocks and research all stocks? We don't do that at the Motley Fool? I thought everybody would know something about anything. I mean, now with AI, you can do it. But back in our day, it was harder. You actually had to research things. You actually had to read things. You had to mail away to get the - If we're really going to go to the back in our day line here. You had to find the number for investor relations, call them, probably not toll free, to have them send you their annual report paper. That's true. You had to make a long distance phone call, which cost more.
17:39There are people out there who won't understand what we're talking about. A long distance phone call. All right, Bill, Matt has said 65 billion to 90 billion. Players at home. Bill Barker, do you want to agree or disagree with Matt's$65 billion to$90 billion range? I'm going to disagree. In that case, Bill Barker, give yourself a plus one. That was the right call because Jay Shri Alal and Arista Networks, Matt, just quietly cranking and growing well beyond your own expectations. $65 to$90. This company is now up to$154.74 billion for its market cap as of Wednesday, December 17th, smoking. I tried to say my range with such confidence that I thought I could trip up Bill.
18:26I have really no idea. At least this time for the first time, I was right for the right reason. I did think that was low. You know, most consumers, I would say, probably have never heard of Arista. If you survey the proverbial man on the street, I'm thinking maybe they know cloud services. They stream some video. They probably rely on AI workloads increasingly, but there's a good chance, even though their data has traveled through Arista-built networks, they would really not know the name Arista. Am I right? Am I wrong in thinking that, again, back in our day, and I'm looking more at David than that, this was a record label name for some reasonably well-known...
19:02I think that's probably right. Does that feel good? You guys have your internet turned off, so you can't look that up right now. But yes, we have a lot of knowledgeable listeners who right now are nodding their heads going, Bill called it, even though neither David nor Bill can really give any of the artists. Unless, Bill, you're about to throw to Lionel Richie. I don't know. I don't know. I mean, in our era, I think I'm going to go with Captain and Tennille. All right. Just to really date myself. All right. Well, this stock, by the way, first pick for The Motley Fool in Rule Breakers by David Kretzman of Gardner Kretzman Continuum fame.
19:35Yes. The date was November 25th, 2014. Stock was at$4.61. So 11 years later, thank you, David Kretzman. This stock is a 27 bagger for Motley Fool Rule Breaker members. I would just say awesome. Speaking of awesome, the company has been led since 2008 by CEO Jay Shreeulal, one of the longest tenured CEOs, as I mentioned, in enterprise tech. Really one of the few women thus far to found and scale a major networking company. So kind of a phenomenal story, ticker symbol A-N-E-T. And I'm counting it as Bill 2, Matt 1. Let's move on to stock number 4. Bill, think about the things that you own that actually get better over time.
20:19Can you name one? Things that I own that get better over time. That actually get better. I've got that amazing brandy collection that you always tell me about. That theoretically would be one if I actually did have an amazing brandy collection. I have a few fairly cheap bottles of wine that I suspect don't get better over time. But there's hope, given how little I spent on them. Matt, would you say your vintage comic books get better over time or they just get older? Well, some can get more valuable over time. But if you don't take care of them, they can get old and brittle. And the content never changes.
20:55The content never changes. The art, the funny lines. Oh, yeah. The stories. They don't change. There are some things I've planted in the backyard that get better over time. There you go. That counts. Is that where we're going? Not quite. I don't suspect. I don't know where we're going here yet. Well, what about like apps on our phones? You download the app off the app store and then, oh my gosh, it just got patched. Oh gosh, three weeks later, it got patched again. They added content. Would you say that technology, Bill Barker, technology can get better. You buy the stuff, but it gets better. AI might be getting better.
21:30It's supposed to with every passing day. Yeah. Yeah. I think it is getting better. I don't own it, though. I would like to own AI. That would be fun. Then I would have everything one of these days. How about cars? Do you have a car that occasionally gets updates? They do not get better over time. My experience with my car is I've never owned one that got better over time. All right. Well, some people who bought a Tesla at any point of the last 10 years probably initially bought something that was designed and manufactured in a certain way. But then through software updates, it unlocked or did something new and it was just still your car.
22:07I'm guessing you don't you don't own a Tesla, Bill. I do not. No. Are you offering one? Because I'm willing to accept one and experience it getting better. I believe that if some of our listeners come together in sort of a kumbaya moment after this, if you were to win, there's a chance there might be one of those crowdfunding pages that might start and Bill Barker ends up with a Tesla. I thought your listeners were smarter than to do something like that, but I'll take your word for it. Let's go fund Bill's Tesla. Come on, everyone. Well, Tesla, the company, designs and manufactures electric vehicles, but also energy products, perhaps one day robots.
22:41It's always going to be a controversial company because I won't say what the market cap is. I'm going to let Bill do that, but it's always traded at a real premium. And some people say, this thing's just a car company. What's going on here? Bill Barker, what is your stated market cap range for Tesla, ticker symbol TSLA? It's been moving up in the last couple of days. So I'm going to say$1.1 to$1.4 trillion. $1.1 trillion to$1.4 trillion. Matt, have you ever ridden in a Tesla? I've ridden a Tesla. I've driven a Tesla. I actually own, we bought a Ford Mach-E Mustang, which is the Ford electric SUV.
23:23And like the Tesla, software upgrades have made it a little bit better. Yeah, it's funny because it would have sounded bizarre 30 years ago. But when you really just think about downloading an app on your phone and how a lot of apps, if they maintain them, do kind of get better. That's just been increasingly true of more and more cars these days. So Bill said$1.1 trillion to$1.4 trillion. Matt, players at home, do you want to agree or disagree? I am going to agree with Bill. I think he gave just enough of a range where I think it's inside there. All right. Well, if you also agreed with Bill, with Matt, you don't get a point.
24:01Because unfortunately, while Bill made a good call, he kind of whispered askance. He said something along the lines of, it's been going up the last few days. As it turns out, it has at least the week before Christmas, as we record. And it's now up to$1.583 trillion, but who's counting? Which is very close. I mean, in some ways, it sounds very close. In other ways, you missed that by over$100 billion, Bill and Matt. I think if you go back like day before yesterday or something like that, maybe. I'm very happy to be wrong here. I thought it was going to be at the high end of your range, but I thought you had it.
24:38It is volatile, and it's had quite a volatile 2025. And obviously, CEO Elon Musk is often in the headlines, and some people really, really don't like him these days. And some people may think he's the next coming, and he wants to die on Mars. There's a lot that we could say about Elon Musk. I will say that he came to Fool HQ. I was checking it, guys. September 29, 2011. Were you there that day? Oh, yeah. I'll never forget it. Yeah. So he came to Fool HQ, and he just gave kind of a stump speech. He was interviewed by Bill Mann, our colleague. And I was just sitting there going, OK, he just said this company, his company, Tesla, Emergent, the Model S hadn't shown up yet.
25:14He was saying, you know, we're the third most shorted stock in the Nasdaq. And at that point, the contrarian, the capital F fooling me, was like, I think I'm going to make that my next stock pick because the guy helped found PayPal. He's pretty bright. He's got a good vision for the future. And he just told me they're heavily shorted. So I'm very happy that it came to Motley Fool Rule Breakers. And 218 times later, it's been a fantastic investment for a lot of people. And there are still a lot of doubters. And I understand it. And I think a lot of Tesla's valuation is premised on what will come next, not what is.
Read the full transcript
25:45Whether that works out or not, we can't really know. So it's a fascinating company. It's also a pretty valuable company these days. This company is now worth$1.5 trillion. Phenomenal story. Amazing. Yeah. I mean, I would say that in comparison to other car manufacturers, 90, 95, 98 percent of the value is from things beyond cars, you know, priced into the stock at the moment. Tesla does design its own batteries, by the way. It writes much of its own software, builds its own factories, even operates its own charging network, which is an unusually integrated approach in the auto industry. Let's move on to stock number five.
26:24Now, Matt, I don't want to put any pressure any more than you're already feeling on you, but you're down three to one. I've got some ground to make up. We're sort of in an inflection point right now. You probably need this one. I do. All right. Let's go to stock number five. Matt, you've owned and managed rental properties over the years. What surprised you most about being a landlord once you were actually in it? That no matter what you do, you can't account for all contingencies. Something always unexpected is going to happen. Can you tell a brief story, anecdote, throw something our way? Well, I mean, there's the midnight HVAC goes out, the tenant gets locked out, all those things that just pile on and will drive you crazy.
27:04And then you try to build systems and processes to guard against. Yeah. But they're never good enough. Okay. Something always happens. Am I right that you're no longer doing that as much? Are you out of that game or are you still in it? One remaining rental property in D.C. We're probably going to be selling that this year, hopefully. But that's almost out of the game. You should have a lot more. Okay, Matt. So based on your experience, let me ask this. Where do you think most value in housing really gets created? Is it in owning and operating existing homes or in building new ones the right way from the start?
27:34I'm going to go with the former owning and operating existing assets only because of the era we're in where it is so much more expensive to build and so much more capital intensive. Whereas an existing property, as long as it's got good bones and relatively newer systems, it probably is less money to operate that and make it profitable than it is to build new. I'm going to ask you for a tip. We have many a landlord listening right now, I think. So I'm going to ask you for a tip based on your experience for aspiring or present day landlords. But this conversation is taking us to DreamFinders Homes.
28:07All right. Ticker symbol DFH. DreamFinders is a home builder focused primarily on entry level and first move up buyers, operating with an asset light model that emphasizes lot options rather than heavy land ownership, which helps keep capital needs lower and returns more flexible across the housing cycle. National Builder of the Year 2025. It says on its website homepage, which I just checked a couple of days ago, Matt Argersinger, I believe it may even be an active wreck in dividend investor. Am I right? It is. So if I don't get this, wow. But the thing is, here's where we get into the Princess Bride mental game of the Market Cap Game Show, because Bill now knows that this is an active recommendation on your scorecard as do our listeners at home.
28:57And so sometimes you might not want to be fully honest with your response, otherwise too predictable. Am I right? I think you're right there. All right. And I need a point. All right then. Matt Argersinger, what is your stated market cap range for Dream Finders Homes? Ticker symbol DFH. David, I'm going to go$750 million to$1.5 billion. $750 million to$1.5 billion. This is a small to micro cap company, Bill Barker, according to Matt. Have you ever come across DreamFinders Homes, Bill? I have, yes. Not as much as Matt. So he does have the advantage over me on this one. Did you come across it from a stock research standpoint or are you just a dreamer?
29:46It was from a stock research standpoint, but more looking over the lists of stocks that I might research more rather than the list of stocks I actually did research on. The company, by the way, has grown largely across the southeast and Texas, quietly scaling by staying disciplined about where and how it builds. I don't mean to be swaying listeners or Bill at all with that. I just want to give a little bit more info. Bill Barker, listeners at home, do you want to agree or disagree with Matt's stated range,$750 million to$1.5 billion? I'm going to disagree with it. All right. Bill just disagreed.
30:25Listeners at home, what about you? Bill was right to disagree. It's a little higher. Just a little higher. $1.7 billion. And for our own accounting, it's now Bill 4, Matt 1. Again, Matt, chin up. You know this company pretty well. Well, you were awfully close on the market cap range, but just not quite close enough. Not quite enough. Oh, yeah. How closely do you follow this one? As fellow advisors, Motley Fool over the years, we know some of our stocks better than others. Is this one that you really know well, Matt? I don't know as well as some of the analysts who've worked on Dividend Investor.
30:58And by the way, what's interesting is DreamFinder's Home doesn't actually pay a dividend, even though it's on the Dividend Investor scorecard, because it came over from our old real estate winner service, which was merged into Dividend Investor a couple of years ago. So it was one - Fun fact. Well, we carried over because we like the company and we like the management team. And we thought at some point, like a lot of home builders, it probably will pay a dividend. So we kept it on the scorecard. Yeah. DreamFinders Homes was founded in 2008 by Patrick Zulipski, who still runs the business today.
31:25So we've got a founder-led company that scaled through multiple housing cycles. That means, by the way, DreamFinders Homes was founded during the global financial crisis. That couldn't have been easy. Probably not. But it's worked out really well. It has grown steadily coming out the other side. The company concentrates on high-growth sunbelt markets like Florida, Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee. It seems like that's where people are moving these days. Strong population growth. And yeah, the company is$1.7 billion today, ticker symbol DFH. Some people actually listen to this show for stock picks, and this might be one of them.
32:00Let's go ahead and push it forward to halftime now. I'll mention we have a new form of halftime entertainment. We've done many forms of halftime entertainment in the Market Cap Game Show over 38 quarters. but recently we've kind of settled on tell a joke. I'm going to turn first to Bill because Bill, you're leading, and I'm going to ask you for our listeners' benefit and maybe Matt's and mine too, would you please tell a joke? Halftime. Sure, and I will confess that I don't carry a backlog of jokes on hand. I try to come up with them in the moment. Beautiful. You know, you get what you pay for there.
32:32But so I went to AI and I just said, what are the five best jokes? Okay, sure. This is Gemini. Is this one of them? I won't inflict all of them on you. Actually, this may have been from round two where like, yeah, those were good, but they're not going to translate quickly enough. But yeah, I'm going to tell you a standard joke courtesy of AI. I don't know actually whether it made this joke up or just came up with the old stuff, but it amused me. So a monk joins a monastery and takes a vow of silence. The vow specifies that he can only speak two words every 10 years. After the first 10 years, he goes to the head, abbot, and he says, bed hard.
33:17The abbot nods and sends him back to his cell. 10 years later, the monk returns and says, food cold. The abbot nods and sends him back. Another 10 years pass. The monk returns and says, I quit. The abbot looks at him and says, I'm not surprised. You've done nothing but complain since you got here. All right, that definitely works for me. That's AI. Well, I don't know. Maybe I actually, since I was asking it for great jokes, I think when I asked it to come up with its own jokes, it didn't do as well. I will just say, when I imagined that the market cap game show halftime should have jokes told, you outperformed my personal expectations as to what we would produce.
34:03Thank you, Bill Barker. Well, again, I could take no credit. I wanted to be very upfront about that. I actually think you can take a little bit of credit because you prompted in such a way. Like part of our future as humanity is prompting and getting good at prompting and better prompting. You have agency. You have a role to play. You did play a role, Bill Barker. That is true. That is true. I feel like I am at least a B, B plus at prompting. I've gotten there. Allow me to underperform that. Matt, a joke, please. David, have you heard the joke about the roof? I have not. It's okay. It's over your head.
34:37All right. All right. There it is. You know? That's a terrible dad joke. And the reason I love telling it is because my son, when he was three, he heard that joke and he told his grandparents and he somehow just nailed it. I mean, as a three-year-old and the comedic timing was perfect. Oh my gosh. That's a shocker from a three-year-old. Grandparents were belly laughing with it. Yeah. And so ever since, it's been my favorite joke. Thank you. He tries to tell it all the time when you meet someone new. As we now move into the second half of the game, Matt, I had said to listeners, I was promising a tip that you would provide landlords to be and present landlords.
35:13Throw some out. Sure. I would say you cannot do enough due diligence on your tenant. So get to know your tenant, or prospective tenant, I should say, as best you can, whether that's doing a credit score or even just having a nice conversation, getting to know them, why they want to move into your house, why they're coming to this neighborhood, all those things. And the more you know, the better experience you're probably going to have. Keep going. So I'm not a landlord and hope to never be one. But I mean, what would the three aspects of what you have learned you must do before having a tenant?
35:48Well, I would say then, do they have a good job prospects? Are they friendly? I mean, that sounds just interesting, right? But I think the friendlier the person is, the less likely they're going to potentially do damage or not care about your property while they're living there. And then there's things you can do, like Zillow has a great application process that you can have tenants go through that gives you a lot of interesting information, credit score, job history, recommendations from previous landlords, all that stuff. So I just think the more information you have, the better. All right. All right.
36:20The score as we enter the second half is Bill 4, Matt 1. Turning now back to you, Bill Barker. Bill, you've spent a lot of time reading company websites. Am I right? Too much time. How much weight do you put on the words the companies use to describe themselves? I'm kind of cynical. So I would say it's seven out of seven out of 20. Yeah. So when a company tells you, and I quote, technology is our how and people are our why, what goes through your mind as an investor? They probably aren't as zen as they think they are. And I'm wondering if you recognize that line from any time in your past, Bill Barker.
37:02Was this from the last show that we did together? Sounds really familiar. Amazingly, this company, and I randomize what shows up every market cap game show. Amazingly, this small cap, spoiler alert, company has now reappeared with Bill Barker here in front of me. And we were making jokes about this a year or so ago because this company, its tagline is, technology is our how and people are our why. And I think I was sort of laughing because to me that's a little too generic. but the reason it got even funnier was that bill himself was writing it up as a stock pick from motley fool members and couldn't comment on that in the market cap game show in respect of our members and we actually had to not even air that part of the show and back comes endava ticker symbol d-a-v-a yep bill it's back so totally randomly once again and it's just perfect now Now, Endava is a technology consulting and services company that helps large enterprises design, build and modernize software, often working behind the scenes on complex digital transformation projects rather than selling a product that you can point to the stock while I'm about to turn back to Bill, except.
38:18Oh, my gosh, it's throwdown time. Okay, so pencils out, fools. Bill and Matt are now going to write down their best market cap range for Endava, ticker symbol D-A-V-A. Once they share their ranges, players at home, you're just going to pick the contestant that you think made the better guess. You simply say, Bill or Matt. And if you're right, score a point. Now, if only one of them gets the market cap range right, of course, the correct guess is going to get that person. and you the point. But what if both are right? Well, then the contestant with the tighter range takes the point. And what if both of them are wrong?
39:02That obviously would never happen on this show. I don't ever remember that even happening once ever. But anyway, supposing this ever should happen, whoever's closer to the actual market cap with one of their parameters gets the plus one. So we do this twice every show. Let's do it. Throw down stock number one is stock number six and DAVA ticker symbol D-A-V-A. Okay, Bill, I'm turning to you first. It did happen once. It happened with me where we were both wrong. But the tiebreaker was – I'm glad you've specified what the tiebreaker was. Yes, we did have a bit of a dispute. I remember. Yeah, yeah.
39:43Market cap gain show lore pass. You were disputing because – So one parameter was closer. That's right. But the median, you know, would have - Yeah, it got very mathy. I wanted to change the rules. As a game show, we're all about ratings, and our ratings were getting killed for about 30 seconds there as we had a little bit of dispute. But yes, if both of you are wrong, whoever has their parameter that's closest to the actual market cap will get the point. Bill, what is your range? All right, I'm going$300 million to$600 million. All right,$300 million to$600 million. Matt, what did you write down?
40:16I wrote down$600 to$900 million. So, wow. All right. Huh. It has been on a tear lower. I feel like I knew that. I didn't think it got investment. I don't know if it has. All right. Well, I know the answer, and we're all about to hear the answer. Players at home, do you want to go with Bill, who said$300 to$600 million, or Matt, who said$600 to$900 million? Say it. All right, you just did. And if you said, Bill, give yourself a plus one. Now, Bill is holding up his arms in victory, but I will also say, unfortunately, this has not been a great pick for Motley Fool members. So in a lot of ways, we're all a little sheepish on this one.
40:57Yes, yes. I'd like to point the finger anywhere but at myself and find it impossible to do so. I've never raised my arms in victory over something that has gone as badly as this has. And do you want to share a little bit more there, Bill? No, I want to move on. I don't want to think about this. This is the only, in some vague sense, positive reward that there has been from suffering through this. At least you got a little redemption. I will say that, and I regret to say this as well, it's not just Bill. A number of Motley Fool services have taken a shine to this one. I see over 20 picks of this stock, including some humdinger prices like November 2021.
41:35It was literally at 166. Today, the stock is around six. Oh, my God. So this has been an incredibly, unfortunately, bad pick. Now, I am the king of bad picks of The Motley Fool. So nobody can pick more bad stocks than I did over my years of The Motley Fool. And I don't fear loss in a society where I feel like people too much fear loss and don't enough recognize that our great gains wipe out our losses. But, Bill, what is happening at Endava? It keeps saying that this backlog that it sees that is going to be the commitment of new contracts is blaming its customers for being too cautious. And the market is really, really, really tired of that story.
42:20I can't imagine a winning business model is to blame your customer. I don't want to say it's blaming, but we feel everything's going really well. Our customers just decided to take another quarter before they adopt a higher contract. David, you might have said it, but what's the actual market cap? I never did. I neglected to say thank you, Matt, and players at home. The market cap today is$300.75 million. So it's just inside the very lowest end of Bill's range,$300 to$600 million. It's basically a$300 million micro cap at this point. Let's move on. And yet it is point number five for Bill Barker, who now has a commanding lead.
42:56And in fact, Matt, we're at a point now where you're going to need to win out as we go forward to claim that final four seat in March. We are cheering you on, though. I'm cheering you on. I love the underdog. You know, there's a chance. What are the slaughter rules in this game? We always play out. We always play out. Doesn't tennis still have a skunk rule? We're just going to lean into some unnecessary trash talk here, and everybody will now root for Matt. There's no question about that. We have four more stocks to talk through, and we're going to have fun with that. And Matt, you're up next.
43:27Let's go to stock number seven. Matt, in medicine, some companies try to be everything to everyone. Others focus deeply on a narrow set of problems. Do you favor either of those approaches over the other? I think finding companies in any industry or sector that do one thing really well and focus on that thing generally works out better, at least in my experience. And what makes you confident that that focused approach can still support a durable business? I think if it's a big enough market, a big enough product, and it's the company's main bag, that's the key. And you've got a passionate management team and culture behind it.
44:05That's when it can all come together. Very well said. Well, I don't know if you've ever looked at Insight Corporation. I have not. Big or simple, I-N-C-Y. Apparently, they didn't get the patent or trademark or intellectual property around the proper way to spell the word insight with, I think, with an S and a G-H. They're going with I-N-C-Y-T-E, Insight Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company focused primarily on oncology and inflammation. Its business is built around discovering, developing, and commercializing prescription medicines with revenue driven by a mix of wholly owned drugs and partnered therapies that generate loyalties.
44:46But they do have kind of one big dog drug that tends to dominate its results. This is not a company I know well at all. Looks to me, Matt, body language, it's not a company you know well at all. Definitely not. It's tagline, by the way, guys. Speaking of the words we choose to define ourselves, solve on. And I think there might be a pun with oncology, I'm thinking. Solve on. Bill, before we go to Matt, have you ever looked at Insight Corporation? I'm not 100 % sure that you aren't just making this all up. We're all going in a little blind here on Insight Corporation. But since I, as the Alex Trebek figure who's done all the homework, already know all the answers, even though I wouldn't have known this unprompted, unaided, I actually know the truth here.
45:31And we're all about to learn it. Matt Argesinger, what is your stated market cap range? You need this one, Matt. You need this one. For Insight Corporation, ticker symbol INCY. Go ahead. I'm tempted to just tell you ahead of time that I'm going to disagree. Although that would give you such a wide range. You should not give Matt that information. I'm tempted. But I understand how I would be hurting myself by doing so. I'm going to say$10 billion to$30 billion. $10 billion to$30 billion inside Corporation. Bill, I don't know if you're a man of your word or not. No, you said you were tempted. You didn't put it forward.
46:11But I'm going to turn now to Players at Home and Bill Barker. Matt said$10 billion to$30 billion. Do you want to agree or disagree with Matt's assertion? I think it's good range, and I'm going to disagree. All right. Well, in that case, it keeps the suspense going because plus one for Matt. It was within his rather generous range. Well done, Matt Argersinger. The market cap for Insight Corporation,$19.31 billion. Guys, its largest product, I'm never good at pronouncing drug names that I've never looked at before, but I'm going to go with Jakafi, J-A-K-A-F-I. Jakafi. Couldn't do better myself. Continue to believe he's making this all up.
46:55It's a drug used to treat rare blood cancers. For years, it's generated the majority of the company's revenue, making insight unusually dependent on a single medicine. But then again, it just reported your coffee net product revenue last quarter, Q3 2025, at$791 million. So we're talking about a pretty substantial business. By the way, our biotech breakthrough service at The Motley Fool first recommended the stock in February of 2022. It was at 68 then. It's at 98 today. Not bad. But considering how biotechnology companies have done over the last few years, that's not a bad result. Yeah. It's been a tough time for the industry.
47:29Yeah, I've not done particularly well in any of my biotech companies the last few years, so I get it. Matt, what is it like to fly blind, hands off the driver's wheel? Your destiny is basically fully connected and accounted for by what you're going to say, and yet you don't know what you're going to say. Right, and so that means there's really no pressure. And I just can sit here and try to confuse Bill the rest of the game. I think there was a little hint that it had a drug that was doing well. I was trying to help you guys a little bit. Because before that moment, I was like, I don't know, like zero to two billion.
48:01Well, it keeps the game interesting. Let's move on to stock number eight. Turning back to Bill Barker. Bill, think about how much of your life runs through your phone now compared to 10 or 15 years ago. What's the biggest change you've noticed, Bill Barker, in Bill Barker over the last 10 years or so with his smartphone? I'm asking you to go third person in case you're not figuring that out. Got it. As an athlete. Barker seems to spend too much time on his smartphone and is no longer willing to suffer boredom, even for microseconds. I remember, and again, this is a little bit of back-of-the-day talk, but before there were smartphones, which some was, I mean, obviously the iPhone 2007, but I mean, I had my Palm Pilot, Palm 1, 2, 3, 90s.
48:49But before that, I remember going to like Best Buy and there'd be like the line to buy your thing. And it would be like eight people long. And you would just sit there and wait for people to check out one at a time with no entertainment. If there's somebody fun next to you in line, there's a conversation. But I mean, we were standing in lines doing nothing for long periods of time, for decades. Think about how productive we are now in those microseconds where we're staring at our phones and like, did anybody send me an email in the last eight seconds? I better check again. I will say there are some great articles and videos you can watch about trying to embrace boredom because that's when we have more creative thoughts.
49:31I just remember standing in line or waiting for a train or bus. You kind of have, you know, you go through mental exercises that you don't do these days because you're constantly just stimulating yourself with non-important things usually. It is true. And I am noticing an increasing number of people writing books about things like digital exhaustion, a phrase that I think is a little bit au courant these days. We are constantly stimmed, maybe over-stimmed, and we're kind of doing it to ourselves. Back to this company, though, which I don't think we can really blame this company for that necessarily.
50:01but Qualcomm does design and license its semiconductor technology sitting at the core of modern wireless communication, including the standards that enable smartphones to connect to cellular networks. So this is not a company that sells finished consumer products. This is, well, Qualcomm's economic power comes from its intellectual property and its licensing model, earning revenue when others build devices that rely on the standards that Qualcomm helped create. Now, this is a company I've never recommended or picked this stock, but this is a pretty big dog. Spoiler alert, I think we all know that.
50:39This is a company a lot of us have heard of. There was a San Diego Stadium, if you're a sports fan, that had Qualcomm's name on it, and yet really the business is a little bit opaque. This is intellectual property lawyer Bill Barker. Yes, I don't want to let Matt know how much or how little I know about this great company that I've followed. He's exuding knowledge. I have followed closely at times in the past. Well, since you're mentioning it, Bill Barker, what is your stated market cap range for Qualcomm, ticker symbol QCOM? $150 to$230 billion. $150 billion to$230 billion now. Matt, I probably don't need to remind you, but a single misstep here, and you will not advance to our final four.
51:28You're on a comeback here, Matt. You said initially you're kind of liking the range. I am liking the range. It's kind of where I was thinking about going, if I had to guess or if I had to create the range. So with that said, I think I'm going to agree with Bill. All right, so players at home, Matt has agreed. What are you going to do? Because we're playing this game for you, not ourselves. Are you going to agree with Bill 150 to 230 or disagree? All right, you're locked in. And if you with Matt agreed with Bill, give yourself a plus one, because sure enough, it was almost right at the median of Bill's range.
52:05$186.87 billion Qualcomm these days. That's pretty big. That was pure luck. I think I would have disagreed with my range because of how little information about its market cap I was bringing into the equation. I was locked in on$200 billion as the market cap. So if you had that, if that was going to be in your range, I was going to agree with you. It was. Do you guys know where the name of the company came from? It's short for something. Not Quaaludes. Quality Communications? You nailed it. You're on fire, Bill. Well done. Do I get half a point for that? I'll give you another half point. And I couldn't have done this myself, to be clear.
52:41So Qualcomm's played a foundational role in developing what the world calls CDMA wireless technology. Bill, give yourself another half point if you can give me the acronym. What CDMA stands for? Can you give me the four words underneath CDMA? Controlled digital methodological association. I'm going to go with 0 for 4. Nice try. But what's funny is, and I think a lot of us at The Motley Fool may do this. I've done this before. I say things like, yeah, CDMA technology. But I'm the person who kind of likes to know what the acronym, what the words are. And yet I couldn't have nailed this. And I've said CDMA a lot myself.
53:18It's code division multiple access. There you are, people. All right. And that is responsible for huge value creation for Qualcomm shareholders. Over the decades, this has been a monster winner. Qualcomm Stadium, ever been? San Diego, California, guys? Love San Diego. Never been to the stadium. No, haven't been to the stadium. It was built in 1967. It was San Diego Stadium back then. Then they renamed it Jack Murphy Stadium. Baseball fans may remember that. From 1997 to 2017, it was Qualcomm Stadium. It was demolished in 2021 and yet built on the same site. The new stadium is Snapdragon Stadium.
53:58I'm not keeping up. I needed to research this. Snapdragon, by the way, one of Qualcomm's brands. Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California. All right. I was thinking it might be like a brand of popcorn or something. Probably is, too. All right. Let's move on to stock number nine. Matt, you are on your horse right now. Barker 5, Argosinger 3. How are you doing at home? All right, then. Let's move on to stock number nine. Matt, can you think of a company that has an iconic product and yet the company has not taken that iconic product name as the company's brand name? Can you think of a company like that?
54:39I can, and it's one that drives me crazy. But there's a company called Kenview, which has a horrible name, I think, but has some of the most iconic products and brands that we use almost every day. Like Tylenol. Tylenol. Right? Band-Aid. They should just call it Band-Aid. I agree. Why Kenview? I have no idea. I don't either. How about a company or stock that just has a really, really dull, literal name? I don't know. Something like Muller Industries comes to mind, which I think makes hydrants. That is dull. And yet what I was looking for here is a literal meaning of a word, not a name, not someone's name.
55:14I see. But like Acme blank kind of a thing. Can you think of a company like that? Illinois Toolworks. Okay. That's a pretty good one. Bill, anything come to mind? That's pretty good. Canadian Railways. All right. There we go. Sure. Pretty straightforward. This is not the stock we're about to talk about, but I was thinking about Pool Corporation. Ticker symbol Pool, the largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies and equipment. Pool Corporation. So this company is kind of like that. The company's original breakthrough product was bubble wrap, which works, by the way, by trapping sealed air inside plastic bubbles, creating cushioning.
55:56And when Alfred Fielding and his pal Mark founded the company in 1960, the core idea was that air itself, when sealed, could be a protective material. Sealed air is the company, Matt. The ticker symbol is S-E-E. This is not, by the way, a stock that the Motley Fool has ever recommended. We have very little research background in this company. I picked this one again, kind of randomizing ticker symbols, and here we go. Sealed air. Now, Matt, right now you're down five to three, as I think we all know. So this is kind of big. And we're looking for your stated market cap range for Sealed Air Corporation.
56:36David, I'm going to go with$5 to$12 billion for Sealed Air. All right. $5 billion to$12 billion. Listeners at home. And Bill Barker, Bill, before you agree or disagree, any thoughts just about bubble wrap? Fun. It's always fun to have some bubble wrap around, isn't it? Crackle it. I kind of agree. I kind of wish they'd named themselves Bubble Wrap Corporation. The kids like it. The cats like it. It's fun. Yeah. This time of year, it's even more relevant. A lot of packaging, a lot of shipping going on. You know, sometimes you get a lot of packaging and you get those little styrofoam peanuts. Those peanuts are terrible.
57:13What are you going to do with those? I like the bubble wrap. I'm a bubble wrap kind of guy. I totally agree. That's a peanut. Out with the styrofoam. I don't know who's making that. I don't think it's sealed air, though. Not throwing this away until every single one of these bubbles is popped. Yeah. You know, the kids. Come on. The kids. It's for the kids. All right. Players at home, Bill Barker. Matt said$5 billion to$12 billion. Bill, do you want to agree or disagree with Matt's assertion? I think that last time he gave a good range and neither one of us really knew that much. And I disagreed with it, but thought the range was good.
57:45And I feel like I'm in the same spot here. And so I know I'm going to agree. All right. Bill is going to agree. Players at home, agree or disagree? Okay. You've locked that in. and we have our final four participant for March Market Cap Madness because that was the correct decision. The market cap for this company is$6.08 billion. Matt, surely, this always feels a little bit wrong about this game. I mean, you kind of killed it, Matt. You did a good job with the good range, and yet somehow Bill and everybody else gets the point. He just stole it. I mean, that's what it feels like right now. It feels stolen.
58:21I know. I feel like someday in the future, You know, the game may be perfect or you may say, yeah, what if, you know, you got. No, I think the game is perfect. The game is perfect. But you just said it feels a little unfair. For 38 quarters, we have evolved to this point. Maybe we need to evolve again. It feels like he did a better job in that moment than I did. No, I love it. I love the game. That was important. It's kind of like, you know, AI is doing a lot of the work. Maybe Matt was sort of your AI build doing the work for you. But ultimately, you chose that monk joke. You chose to bring that to halftime.
58:51And you chose to agree with his market cap range. So give yourself a pat on the back, champ. I'm going to take the victory, and I feel a little bad about it. Don't get slaughtered by Emily Flippen and Marsh. All right. Well, we still have a company. We're going to play this one out. But I want to mention, by the way, over time, Sealed Air has expanded far beyond bubble wrap, even though it's its iconic product that it kind of started with, and I think it should be called that. But they're now in food safety, protective packaging like Cryovac. But anyway, I just want to say, guys, this has not been a great stock.
59:23The company's been public for more than 40 years, just to a$6 billion market cap today. And that's sitting out there in the New York Stock Exchange for an awfully long time. Not really compounding. I checked it 25 years ago, year 2000. It was at$25 a share. Today, it's at$41. So, you know. What if it's paid a dividend over that time? Maybe that's helped a little bit. Maybe a little bit. But it's not a huge, recent market cap. Really not in the business of rewarding shareholders, but of providing fund to. That's true. It's all about the kids. Cats and children of all ages. I will say, just checking in now, the dividend, the yield on this stock is 1.95%.
1:00:05So about 2 % yield. So probably that's a huge contributor to the returns. Kind of an also rant. But we love our bubble wrap. Let's move on to stock number 10. It is Barker 6, Argersinger 3. As I often point out at this point, Matt, human beings tend to remember it like the last thing that happened. There's a recency bias to how you close out that could really change, I don't know, the calculus. Right. Well, it's like when I play a game with my kid, it's whoever wins last is the winner. There we go. So if I can get this last one. Next shot wins. Next shot wins. There's a chance. Let's turn to Bill Barker here as we close with stock number 10.
1:00:43Bill, here's something else I've noticed. We've gotten used to automation inside buildings. but it's still surprising when it shows up on sidewalks. Have you had one of those moments yet? One of those moments where automation is on the sidewalk? Technology is moving into public spaces, and I don't know whether people are resisting or accepting. Robots are starting to proliferate in some of our neighborhoods, sometimes doing last mile deliveries for even companies like Uber or other partners that are trying to ship something to your door. Have you seen one of those? Other than, you know, the driverless cars, I've seen those.
1:01:30That is an example. Bill was thinking about Segways. I was thinking about those. Two years ago, they were hot. They were on the sidewalk. Those things that look like the villains from Doctor Who that go around Heathrow and, I don't know, terrorize people. Have you ever looked at Serv Robotics? I have not. All right. The ticker symbol is S-E-R-V, and Serv Robotics develops small, autonomous delivery robots designed to handle short, last-mile deliveries. Yeah, pretty much on sidewalks. The stretch between a restaurant or store and your front door. The company is focused on making local delivery cheaper, more reliable by automating simple trips that don't require human judgment while operating in public spaces where trust and safety and acceptance matter just as much as the technology itself.
1:02:24So I think we can all picture this product, even if we haven't benefited from it yet. And whether or not it reaches full societal acceptance, only Bill Barker probably knows. Bill, what is your stated market cap range for Serve Robotics, ticker symbol S-E-R-V? $1 to$3 billion. $1 billion to$3 billion. Matt, have you looked at this one? I have not looked at this one. I don't think they're paying a dividend. Probably not showing up on my radar. That's a good range because I feel like it is in the small cap range. I will mention they're not making money yet. Wait, you're just helping them now. Hey, you're just helping them.
1:02:59I mean, I think a lot of us feel a little bit for Matt at this moment. So I'm trying to give them something. Everything I can get. I'm going to disagree. All right, so Bill, you said$1 billion to$3 billion. Players at home, Matt has just disagreed. What do you think? All right, you thought that. And if you disagreed with Bill's range, give yourself a plus one, because sure enough, this company is even smaller than the$1 billion low end of Bill's parameter. Serve Robotics, 742 million.23. Good range, though. I mean, if you hadn't had that helpful hint at the end. Yeah, and this is an interesting company.
1:03:36Bill, I know you've done some work with Firecrackers. Motley Fool Firecrackers put in a buy last September, not 2025, but 2024 at$7 a share. And I have seen our TMF Moneyball portfolio and tool on the site take a shine to the stock in the single digits throughout 2025. Stock's now at 10. So an interesting one to keep track of. This is a micro cap company. We're talking about a sub$1 billion company, as Matt now fully appreciates as he closes out with a fourth point, which I think was just one away from overtime, which would have been dramatic. Yeah, I mean, I feel OK about my performance today.
1:04:18And to lose to Bill, who I think has bested me in the past, it's always an honor. It's always an honor, Bill. What would have been the overtime stock? Maybe Mac gets to tighten it to 6.5. I will admit that often I know what it is, but I had not prepped that. And I was going to pause the show if you guys were in overtime and then randomize right then. In front of you, of course, you wouldn't see. We'll just have to leave that to the mists of time. It's in part of the multiverse, I think. It's been done. You got it. It's 6.5. A better version that nailed it. I do want to note, guys, this is a little sad for me.
1:04:52This week, which again, for holiday listeners around Christmas time, would have been last week because we recorded on Wednesday, December 17th. So this week that I'm speaking right now, speaking of robots, my former Rule Breakers pick of iRobot announced bankruptcy, which I'm kind of sad about. At different points, iRobot was a serious winner for our Rule Breakers members. Just didn't finish out well. Roomba, right? But not a lot after that. And, you know, we interviewed Colin Engel, the CEO and co-founder at, gosh, it was CES 2013, 2014, somewhere in that era. And that was when it was just the room was on fire.
1:05:30It had the big market share within. And they were launching the Scuba and all these other products. And it really felt like that was their time. And since then, it's. I think they got a buyout offer. I think Amazon said, we're going to buy you out at blah, blah, blah. And then it fell through or it wasn't approved. And that really hurt this tiny company. Yeah. All right. Well, we'll wish better things for Serv Robotics. I realize some people may have mixed feelings about robots going past them down the sidewalk, delivering somebody their fajita. But, you know, that's the world we're moving into, guys.
1:05:59Yeah. I look forward to actually the first time I see. Yeah. I'm still waiting for the drone deliveries, too. I know we're supposed to get those at some point. You're right. That's kind of like the scuba. Yes. Like, when is that going to happen, actually? Do you still find it cool when there's a driverless car going by you? I am still, yes. I saw an image this week of, and somebody took this, a video of a Tesla that had no driver at all. It was literally out on the highway just driving itself. Perhaps a show of confidence, obviously a test and learn for Tesla, but there was literally nobody in the car at all, and it was out there going.
1:06:32Yeah. Well, I've seen plenty of that in cities. Yeah, you're right. Waymo, they're out there mapping. Not on the highway, so I haven't seen that yet. It's out there. All right. Well, holiday greetings to all on this holiday edition of the Market Cap Game Show, and I want to thank especially my two talented guest stars, Bill Barker and Matt Argersinger. The final counting then is this, Bill 6, Matt 4. But Bill and Matt and I know that we're not playing this game for each other. We're playing it for you. How did you score, dear fool, dear listener at home? We hope that you outscored all of us. The purpose of the Market Cap Game Show is to make more popular, and I'm never going to say as popular as Jeopardy, but to make more popular market caps, the real value of stocks on the market that most people don't understand.
1:07:22Except that you do understand because you just listened to us for an hour, and I hope you scored at least a few points this week and maybe beat one or both of our talented competitors. Bill and Matt, you both distinguish yourselves and help make the world a little bit smarter, happier, and richer this week. And Bill, I will see you, sir, in March. next week is our year-end December mailbag I hope you're able to enjoy a lovely holiday dear listener wherever you are before we go a last line from you Bill I want to just plug the most recent episode of Money Unplugged with Chris Hill where Bill Mann and I revisited the apropos of nothing stupidity of the past I love that you did that we just had Chris Hill on our besties last week so a delight to have his name rocked again And I've always enjoyed you and Bill Mann and Chris Hill together.
1:08:15And that, no doubt, is worthy holiday podcast listening. Thank you for mentioning that, Bill. It's a holiday edition, of course. So that is my attempt to wish people a happy holiday is with that show. Excellent. A last line from you, Matt. Read David's book, Rule Breaker Investing. Read 1929 by Andrew Ross Sorkin as well. Excellent. Books on very opposite spectrums, but just also very so illuminating. You will absolutely get smarter. and I think richer by doing so. Thank you very much. Again, Bill, Matt, thank you guys. Fool on. And to our listener, thanks for hanging with us. Hope you had fun.
1:08:49Happy holidays. Fool on.
1:09:11Thank you.
From the publisher
It’s time once again for the Market Cap Game Show Holiday Edition, where intuition meets valuation and everyday life meets market caps. Bill Barker and Matt Argersinger take the stage, vying for the final spot in our 2026 March Market Cap Madness World Championships, as they test their mettle—and yours—across ten public companies. From Bubble Wrap and sidewalk robots to semiconductors, ski resorts, biotech pipelines, and online commerce platforms, the matchups span the familiar and the delightfully unexpected, with plenty of raucous banter along the way. Play along at home, challenge your market-cap intuition, and see whether you can outscore Bill, Matt… or both.
Companies mentioned: ANET, DAVA, DFH, INCY, MTN, QCOM, SEE, SERV, SHOP, TSLA
Host: David GardnerGuests: Bill Barker, Matt ArgersingerProducer: Bart Shannon
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
