The economic opportunity hidden in the climate transition | Marielle Remillard

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1:49In fact, according to LinkedIn, those hiring with LinkedIn are 24 % less likely to need to reopen a role within 12 months compared to the leading competitor. Join the 2.7 million small businesses using LinkedIn to hire. Get started by posting your job for free at linkedin.com slash tedbiz, spelled B-I-Z. Terms and conditions apply. Whenever I hear about some startup company that's IPO'd for some eye-watering amount of money, I think, how did someone come up with that? Even after decades in the business world, that alchemy still blows my mind. Most entrepreneurs would tell you that they recognized a need that was important at that particular moment or anticipated what was going to be important in the near future, and they threw their heart, mind, and soul into it.

2:43One particular industry that continues to innovate in fascinating, effective ways is the climate space. So much of our future remains uncertain, but we know one thing for sure. A cleaner, more efficient energy grid requires a whole lot of stuff, for lack of a better word. And with that stuff comes a whole lot of opportunity.

3:09I'm Madupa Akinola. This is TED Business, a podcast from TED. Our speaker today, climate strategist Mariel Remiard, takes us through the literal nuts and bolts of what achieving net zero could look like. The supply and demand issues that still need to be resolved and how entrepreneurs can rise to the challenge of meeting those needs. Then after the talk, I'll reflect on Mariel's call to action. But first, a quick break. This episode is brought to you by Paka. You know those pieces you'd wear every day if you could get away with it? For me, it's my Paka hoodie and crew sweater. Made with the same care and unmistakable softness, Paka creates outdoor and lifestyle apparel from alpaca fiber, one of the most sustainable natural fibers on the planet.

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5:02find a car they love. It helps schedule a test drive, get pre-approved for financing, and estimate trade-in value. Advanced, intuitive, and deployed. That's how they stack. That's technology at Capital One.

5:19And now, Marielle Remiard takes the TED stage. Do we have what it takes to reach net zero? I don't mean this in a philosophical way. does humanity have sufficient grit and creativity? Do we have the political will? I mean, quite literally, do we have enough stuff, cement, steel, glass, nuts, bolts, needed to achieve net zero? Because this is no small undertaking. Over the next 30 years, we're going to need to build 42 billion solar panels, 1.3 million wind turbines, 476 nuclear reactors, establish a hydrogen economy, overhaul our electrical grid, and transform our transportation networks. This is a lot of money and a lot of labor, yes, but it's also just a lot of stuff.

6:11So as governments set increasingly ambitious policy targets and businesses overhaul their operations, whether by carrots or sticks, we can't forget a fundamental question. Is it even feasible? I've been working on climate and sustainability topics my entire career. I started as a policy advocate and activist, lobbying for stronger policy interventions, and later as a scientist and an engineer, only to come to the conclusion that those industries, while very important, move so slowly. I'm not a very patient person, and climate change demands urgent action. So I made my switch to the business sector, where we have both the resources and the agility to affect climate change on the necessary timescales.

6:58Among the highlights of my career has been working at the BCG Henderson Institute, BCG's think tank. There, our research team studies how to increase the speed and scale of the energy transition by looking at the transition economy as a system. Underpinning our research is this idea that it's not just one sector that's going to need to transform, but all of them. You know, it's not just wind or automotive industries. these sectors are transforming in parallel, and we need to look at this holistically. So let me give you an example. If we wanted to answer this question, can we achieve net zero?

7:34Do we have enough stuff for just the wind sector? Classically, you might approach this question by looking at all the materials you need to make a wind turbine, and then comparing supply and demand. And what you would see is that maybe through 2030, you'd see some scarcity in carbon fiber, possibly terbium, but it's really unclear once you get to the bottom of the list. Once we start factoring in the rest of the economy, the picture looks like this. There are 14 materials that would face scarcity in the wind energy supply chain through 2030 once we account for the full economy. I don't know about you, but I found these results staggering.

8:15It's exactly this type of perspective that we need to bring to policymakers to make informed decisions and to bring to investors so that they're investing in clean technologies that will actually have meaningful impact. Now, you may be wondering, you know, isn't this just one scenario, right? There are many pathways that you could take to reach net zero. And in fact, there are hundreds of design choices that go into each of these individual technologies. So what happens if we start factoring in actual design choices. Our team wanted to do this, so we ran a modest 6 ,000 experiments where we varied not only the amount of solar and wind in our net zero scenario, but individual design choices.

9:01So for our solar panels, we looked at whether they were made from crystalline silicon or thin films, whether they were framed in aluminum, whether they had a glass backing and whether they were mounted on the roof or on the ground. And we varied similar parameters for the wind sector. What we found was that 45 % of the materials needed to build solar and wind panels could face scarcity through 2030 under every scenario we tested. Some of the materials we expected, right, things like cobalt or rare earth metals have been in the news for a long time, but others were a lot more surprising. No one's talking about aluminum or carbon fiber.

9:41For every decarbonization pathway, the mix of technologies down to small design choices can sway our ability to achieve net zero. And for businesses, what this necessarily means is that they're going to look for substitutes as they try and overcome these scarcities. But those substitutes and those transformations can lead to more scarcity. So we can do a thought experiment. Say we had a scarcity in carbon fiber. It's used to strengthen the wind turbine blades. A logical substitute here is fiberglass. The fiberglass market is quite large. It could easily absorb additional demand coming from the wind sector.

10:21But to make fiberglass, you need boron. and boron is becoming increasingly used throughout the energy transition. It goes into rare earth magnets that are used in EVs and wind turbines. It goes into boron steel in the automotive industry. It goes into borosilicate glass in certain types of solar applications. So as we increase demand for fiberglass, we may put strain on boron supplies. So maybe we just increase the supplies. Well, as it would turn out, there's only a few countries that mine boron, 73 % of known reserves exist in Turkey. And to open a new mine, that's a 20-year process. So yeah, we could replace carbon fiber with fiberglass, but it could have implications for the entire economy.

11:12And this is just one material. For all of these technologies, there's hundreds, maybe even thousands of components to consider.

11:24So, I could give you another example, right? So if the wind example didn't resonate, we could talk about lithium-ion batteries. They're skyrocketing in demand, driven by electric vehicles and grid-scale storage. The anode material that goes into a lithium-ion battery is typically graphite. We would pretty much need to double graphite supplies by 2030 to achieve net zero. The graphite anode supply chain is dominated by China. They control 100 % of battery-grade graphite. So there are a lot of people looking to expand supplies of graphite, but there's also substitutions that are under research. Scientists are exploring the alternative of using silicon as an anode material, but this not only creates a new opportunity for silicon producers, but could put pressure in semiconductor and solar panel industries.

12:18Okay, thrown a lot at you, so just to check that you're following. Achieving net zero is going to take a lot of stuff. That stuff is going to increase our demand, could lead to scarcity, and businesses will respond through substitution. But there's one more thing I'm not sure you caught. somebody's going to get rich. That somebody could be you. For businesses big and small, the energy transition creates the single largest industrial growth opportunity since the Industrial Revolution. The energy sector that was once dominated by two fuels is now experiencing fierce competition among a broader range of climate technologies.

13:05The materials and components that go into these could gain a share in a trillion-dollar energy economy. And it's not just rare earth metals and clean tech. We're talking about commodities. I mentioned aluminum a little bit earlier. This is an industry that has been stagnant since the 1980s. But if we take our approach to net zero seriously, they will see a boon in their industry. It's used in solar panel mounting hardware and frames. It's used in conductors for the electric grid. It's used to lightweight electric vehicles. It can also replace other scarce materials like copper, thereby seeing increased demand through substitution.

13:48And it's not just aluminum. We're seeing this trend for certain grades of steel, for silver, for epoxy resin. There's also opportunities that exist by entering new markets. So we could say, for an example, perhaps you are a manufacturer of automotive parts. You may think that the electric vehicle industry is going to be the death of your industry. But the same skills and labor that go into manufacturing parts for a gas car translate incredibly well to the wind energy sector, where wind turbines require thousands of mechanical parts. Getting a foothold in that supply chain could diversify your product portfolio and lead to new revenue opportunities.

14:36Or say you make lubricant. There's an opportunity for you too. There's two drivetrains that are common in wind turbines. One uses magnets that are becoming increasingly rare, and one is mechanical design. As rare earth magnets become more scarce, the industry will likely shift to mechanical alternatives, which will need more lubricant. We'll also see an expansion in infrastructure. The offshore wind industry is going to need ports that can store enormous components. It's going to need ships that can erect skyscraper-sized wind turbines in the ocean. Those ships are going to need new engines that can burn alternative fuels like methanol and ammonia.

15:17In fact, ammonia demand is expected to double through 2030 and triple by 2050. That extra ammonia is going to need storage. So if you're a chemical storage tank producer, this is an opportunity for you too. And I haven't even touched the surface on the finance sector, the education sector, construction, logistic services that are all going to experience increased opportunities as we achieve net zero. Now, I think it's important to take a pause here to note I'm not advocating for more consumption on our pathway to net zero. And I think it's really important to acknowledge that clean technologies can come with their own environmental and social costs.

15:59We're going to need to be really thoughtful about how we do this. But these opportunities can also lead to innovations in new and different ways, right? better processes, better use and recycling of materials. The LED light bulb is a really good example here. This is a technology that reduces our energy use, but also saves consumers money and uses a fraction of the materials that go into a CFL or an incandescent bulb. Achieving net zero is not going to be easy. The timelines are incredibly tight, And given the complexity involved, it's going to require collaboration from both the public and the private sectors.

16:43But this also provides an opportunity for innovation and for growth. I mentioned at the beginning of my talk that I am interested in the business sector. I really do believe that this is where we are going to see solutions to climate change happen. I want you to get rich and to innovate and to grow because this is how we reach the speed and scale we need to achieve the energy transition. After all, someone has to make the stuff needed for net zero. So I'll leave you with one final question. What opportunities lie ahead? Thank you. Thank you. Advanced, intuitive, and deployed. That's how they stack.

17:57That's technology at Capital One.

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19:03T's and C's apply.

19:11That was Marielle Remiard speaking at TED at BCG. There was a lot going on in that talk. I'll admit, at times it's a little overwhelming to think of the sheer logistics needed to overhaul our energy grid. But it's also super helpful to hear her break down just a couple of examples of what needs to be done. I think it's so important that Mariel underscored the point that more consumption is not the way we're going to solve this particular issue. That's partly how we got into this mess. And what we really need are more thoughtful materials and processes that will have a meaningful impact. What's clear to all of us, even now is that entrepreneurs will be a critical part of the solution.

19:54Will you be one of them?

19:59That's it for today. TED Business is part of the TED Audio Collective. This episode was produced by Hannah Kingsley Ma, edited by Alejandra Salazar, and fact-checked by Julia Dickerson. Special thanks to Maria Latias, Farrah DeGrange, Daniela Ballarezzo, Tansika Sangmanibong, and Roxanne Hylash. I'm Madhupa Akinola. Thanks for listening.

20:31This episode is brought to you by Capital One. Capital One's tech team isn't just talking about multi-agentic AI. They already deployed one. It's called Chat Concierge and it's simplifying car shopping. Using self-reflection and layered reasoning with live API checks, It doesn't just help buyers find a car they love. It helps schedule a test drive, get pre-approved for financing, and estimate trade in value. Advanced, intuitive, and deployed. That's how they stack. That's technology at Capital One. This episode is brought to you by ServiceNow. I get to spend my days studying how people think and what it actually takes to change our minds.

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