Have Sneakers Lost Their Cool?

0:07Hello and welcome to the Debrief from the business of fashion where each week we delve into our most popular BOF professional stories with the correspondents who created them. I'm senior correspondent Sheena Butler-Young. And I'm executive editor Brian Baskin. 15 years ago, the concept of office sneakers was brand new. Google records virtually zero searches for the term before 2011, and the idea didn't really take off for another decade after that, when companies started calling employees back to work after the pandemic. Sneakers are the symbol of a decades-long trend toward more casual dressing.

0:43In most workplaces today, spotting someone in Nike or Adidas, maybe even the CEO, would be unremarkable. But new analysis from Bank of America suggests that sneaker sales have peaked. Sportswear sales growth has decelerated, once hot styles like the Adidas Samba are cooling, and analysts are questioning whether the category and maybe the whole casualization trend has reached a natural ceiling. Joining us to discuss is BOF reporter and resident sneaker expert, Mike Sykes. Mike, welcome to The Debrief. Thanks for having me. All right. So my inbox is full of reports like that one from Bank of America.

1:18Why did this one cause such a stir? This one was the first one in a while, in a really long time, that sort of seemed like it spelled a bit of doom and gloom for the industry. And I feel like everyone has been on pins and needles for the last couple years as Nike has been in its downturn, just because people seem to be sort of over this whole trend of wearing sneakers to the office, wearing sweats and with different fashionable items. Like everyone is like, is this really the end? And Bank of America is kind of like, yeah, like it's over. Like people are trying to wear cool stuff now. They also zeroed in on one brand, right?

2:01They downgraded Adidas. Double downgrade, I think is what they call that, a double downgrade. Yeah, Adidas got the double downgrade, which again, like Adidas for the last few years has been the hottest brand in the industry behind, like you mentioned, Sheena, the Samba. That has been the issue for these last few years. So if Adidas is getting the double downgrade here, what does that mean for everyone else? Is the industry in trouble? That's what this report made it seem like. That's what struck me as so dramatic about this report is that I alluded at the beginning that this trend of more and more sneaker sales has been going on for literally decades.

2:45And throughout that time, you have times when Nike's up and they're down and Adidas is up or someone else is rising. And this report basically said, this is the cliff. And once Adidas and the Sambas fade, there's nothing following that to carry this trend further. Is that right? I don't know if it's right, but I also don't know if it's wrong either, which is like a really roundabout way of saying I'm honestly unsure. Because look, here's the thing. Like there are people who are, like we are going into a period where people are wearing different things, right? And you even see that in sneakers.

3:23I would look at something like the sneaker loafers that New Balance has made over these last few years, or even going back to 2023 when everyone was wearing the mischief big red boot. And like people are just willing to wear - Was everyone wearing those boots? Everyone really? Listen, when I went outside on the weekends, on those rare weekends where people would see me, I saw a lot of pairs of those. And whether they were authentic or not, I don't know. But just the fact that people are wearing these big red clown shoes just said to me that like, hey, like the the Jordan ones, the Nike dunks, the things that we're used to, people aren't as into them as they once were.

4:05And if that's the case, then it makes you just wonder like, okay, where is this thing going to go? But at the same time, while you're wondering that there's not really anything that has come in and sort of replaced the sneaker, right? There's not really any sort of apparel that has come in and replaced the active wear that people like to wear casually now. Like there just is no next thing. And so if there's no next thing, then how can we really be moving on from the previous thing? That's the sort of question that I think we're all left with after reading this report. What I thought Brian was going to say that I found interesting is like these big investment firms and banks that do these ratings, they're not looking at hype, right?

4:50They're looking at true data here. So they're talking like a 1.3 % growth in the sneaker category this year compared to like growing 3.5 % or higher over the last couple of years. But they're not the only ones that's rating a brand like Adidas. They're sort of alone in this negative tilt. Or maybe there's one other investor, I think, that your story talks about that's saying Adidas is signaling the end. Everyone else is pretty upbeat, no? Yeah, everyone else seems to feel like things are going at least OK, maybe not perfect, but nothing is perfect in this economy. Well, Matt Powell says he sees nothing close to that.

5:25He's very positive. Yeah. So in speaking with the people that I spoke with for this story, like there was just a sense of like, it's not great, but it's also not bad either. And saying that it's bad or that the trend is reversing, it's way too premature to say that. And then the following week, I think it was Bernstein that came out with a report that showed they launched a consumer survey that showed that people are still into sneakers. They are still planning on buying sportswear in 2026. And they bought in 2025, maybe not at the levels of 2020, 2021, when everyone was was buying sneakers, partially because they were good for resale at that time.

6:14I mean, you could maybe make a nice profit off of buying the right pair of Jordan 1s or something. But the trends right now just say to me that we are in a period of sort of returning to normalcy. That's such a great point about a return to normalcy. And I think also just to pull in what you said, Sheena, about Matt Powell. So he's an analyst and a longtime sneaker expert. I mean, he's almost half analyst, half culture critic when it comes to that world. And he's looking at it much more from that perspective. And Bank of America and these other banks are weighing the share price of these companies versus the expectations for their future profits.

7:01And, you know, from that perspective, Bank of America might be right in saying Adidas can never live up to the hype that's been built around it and their past rate of growth. But that's very different than saying sneakers are over. We're all going to be wearing, I don't know. And to Mike's other point, what is that next thing? Big red boots, Crocs. I don't know what it's going to be. Yeah, that's kind of the thing, right? Is that like, okay, so Adidas may not get back to that level that it was at in 2021 or whatever. But I mean, if you think about the place where Adidas was just like two years ago, three years ago, I don't even think that I thought Adidas would get to the spot that it's currently in right now.

7:45I don't know. Maybe that's a bit too much of an extraordinary circumstance, considering the fallout with Yeezy and everything. But I just feel like if the progress that we've seen from the company has gotten to this point, then I don't really see why I should be that worried about the company. Let's step back here. I mean, why have sneakers been so enduring? I mean, it's pretty rare for anything. I mean, maybe skinny jeans had an upswing that lasted this long, but it just seems like it does only go in one direction. And that's pretty rare for any item of clothing. And you're right. It makes it hard to imagine how that trend could reverse.

8:27There are two things in my mind that sort of drive this trend, right? It's the fact that sneakers are generally just accessible for people. Like, it's an easy trend to follow. Everybody knows what the next coolest pair of Jordans would be. Or, like, even now when you look at, like, some of the Asics that people are wearing or the New Balance or whatever, like, you can easily spot, like, which ones are cool. And it's not necessarily, like, it's sort of an inside baseball thing. Like it's a, if you know, you know vibe, but like, it's very easy to sort of hop on the bandwagon and follow the trend.

9:08And so I think that's part of it. But, but also the next part of it to me is the, the accessibility that, that comes with this stuff, right? Like when you look at sneakers and even just from a broader perspective, sportswear, like a lot of this stuff comes in at, at a, a cheaper price that is like, you can, you can go out and find a cool pair of sneakers. like an ice white pair of Air Force Ones for, I think,$100 now. It used to be$90, right? And that was one of the coolest shoes out, and you could just walk into your local footlocker if you had one around you and buy one. You can find a nice pair of leggings to match with a nice top and a nice coat.

9:53Or you can style a pair of sweatpants with a cool sweater. It's just more accessible and easier to figure out than, you know, some of the more fashionable items out there. Like if you were going to go for a nice pair of corduroy trousers or something like that from like J.Crew, like you, you know, there's a bit more of a barrier of entry there for people. And I think that sneakers and more broadly sportswear just give people that access a bit more, which is especially important now as a lot of people are trying to determine, like, do I want to buy this next outfit or do I want to buy groceries?

10:32And I would also argue that over the years, every time that there could have been a moment that sneakers could have decelerated, it wasn't the brands that were probably giving it the second wind all the time. It was like other trends, like the pandemic, like people wanting to be comfortable. It wasn't that a brand necessarily put out an amazing shoe during the pandemic. We were stuck at home. We wanted comfortable shoes. We were walking more. So they got a lot of help over the years. They're probably not. There's nothing in the over the horizon that shows that they'll get another boost naturally either.

11:00And Sheena, I mean, potentially the reverse. I mean, your last story was about how fashion companies are basically saying, get back to the office five days a week. I don't care what you think and how comfortable you are at home. Can I just say I was the whole time I was typing that I was like, can art not imitate life? Every sentence I was just breathing that into the atmosphere as I typed every sentence of that. Bad news for you about BOF's work from home policy. Just kidding. Just kidding. But I mean, it does. That does speak to, I mean, maybe that is one of those pivot moments if everyone's back in the office.

11:31You know, if there's other cultural forces out there pushing back against more casual dressing, maybe something takes hold. Sneakers aren't going anywhere. But I do think that maybe Bank of America has a point that everything is not a tailwind right now. Yeah, for sure. And I think one of the more interesting points that I think was made in the story, when I spoke with Elizabeth Simulhek of the Bata Shoe Museum in Toronto, I wanted to get like a historic perspective on like trends that have sort of shifted out and changed over time. And she made the point that she thought that we were in a space where it would be like the Roaring Twenties and the 1920s, where it's post-World War I and there's this big bustling industry that's going everywhere.

12:18And she thought that we might be headed for that in the early 2020s. And it hasn't necessarily manifested itself yet, maybe partially because of the pandemic. But as you're saying, Brian, like maybe there is a moment where like now that back to the office culture is coming back, people are getting tired of seeing the same styles over and over again. And maybe people are going to be like instead of sneakers, maybe it's hard bottom loafers that are that are cool again. I don't know. Another not art. Let's hope art doesn't imitate life or that that is not true. But you're hinting or circling another point that your story mentioned, which is that in order for this trend to go in either direction, there needs to be a replacement either or like something new or exciting that comes out.

13:05So either Nike or Adidas or some one of the sneaker brands puts out a shoe that is exciting and rejuvenates the category. or another footwear category emerges with a hot item or a hot trend that tilts it in the other direction. Nike recently gave us a hint at how this could shift. They put out a shoe that is not a sneaker, but is their hottest shoe arguably right now, right? Yeah. So you're talking about the React X Rejuvenate, which is a very long name, but it's also like not a formal wear piece either. This is a recovery clog that Nike made. It launched the shoe in January of 2025. And even skipping a year ahead here in 2026, its hottest shoe right now is the Nike Mine 001 and 002, which one of those is a sneaker technically, but the other is a mule.

14:00And that's the one that people are more interested in now. And it's a telepathic sneaker, if I understand correctly. Yeah, there are 22 nodes in the soul that are supposed to like sort of sink your mind and get the athlete ready for competition. I haven't worn a pair, so I don't know if it works or not. I don't know. But regardless, this is something that people are into. This is something that people want. And it's not because it's, you know, necessarily like the most different thing. what I've, in speaking to people who have wanted this shoe, it's mostly about the comfort. They just want something that's a bit more comfortable.

14:40And so like, I would say like, as far as ending the casualization trend, like this is not a shoe that would do that. This is a shoe that would entrench it a bit more, I think, which is honestly fascinating to me coming off of the Bank of America report. The rejuvenate, I mean, it really, it's almost redefining what a shoe is. It's just so different from a sneaker, but still, like you said, it still definitely falls in that category somehow.

15:10We'll be back with more of the debrief right after this.

15:17So there was another interesting stat that was not in the Bank of America report, but it was in Mike's newsletter this month. And it said that Nike's non-sneaker footwear sales were up 5 ,811 % on StockX. So you talk about this at length in the newsletter, but what does that tell you? It tells me that, again, like people are interested in wearing different things, but it doesn't signal to me the end of a casualization trend. It signals to me that people are looking for more comfortable alternatives. They're looking for cheaper alternatives because I mean, let's, let's be honest about sneakers here.

15:57Like things are getting a bit expensive. Like there, there are shoes that if you're looking to buy a pair of Jordan ones, which like, I guess are out of style now, but they can go up to$180 now and maybe even higher, which is not the case. It wasn't the case five or 10 years ago. Right. And so like when, With increasing prices on some of the hit sneakers that we have out there, people are looking for cheaper alternatives. People are looking for more comfortable alternatives. And that huge percentage of sales on StockX's platform was driven by that React X Rejuvenate shoe that we just talked about, where it's not a sneaker.

16:37It's not any sort of traditional Nike thing, but it's like a clog. And it's closer to something like a Croc, right? And like we saw the Crocs rise over these last few years and we're seeing all these these weirder like Mary Jane sneaker fusions and loafer sneaker fusions that are happening. And it just shows me that like people are are looking for these alternatives that that aren't necessarily what we're used to, but are still something that they might consider to be cool and hip from from the brands that they love. I looked at Foot Locker to see the Rejuvenate sneaker and they have all these like style look pictures.

17:16And one is with a bucket hat. The other is with like basketball shorts. And the third look is with sweatpants. So if you want the picture, whether this signals the end of casualization, it's the exact opposite. You're not wearing this to the Met Gala. Exactly. I think they'd go great with my tux. I don't know. Well, you could pull it off, Brian, but I don't know if anyone else could. if anyone else could. I love what you said though, Mike, about this desire for experimentation. And there was another shoe you, I'll throw in there, which is the Zellerfeld 3D printed shoes, where you just wrote about how they're putting out their first multicolored 3D printed shoe, which is an, you know, it doesn't sound like a huge innovation, but it actually is a big deal in that world.

17:57And it's another great example that people definitely want something different. I don't think, it sounds like they haven't landed yet on what that different might be, or at least there's no consensus. Exactly. There's no consensus for what different is. I think people are just in a phase where they're trying things and maybe it is a multicolored 3D printed sneaker. Like you said, Brian, that is a big innovation. Like usually with 3D printed footwear, it's all one color and the color is of the material that was printed. And now like Zellerfeld has come up with this thing, this technology where they can print multicolored, which is like the first time this has ever happened.

18:34And they're doing it in the Air Max 1000, which is a Nike 3D printed model made in partnership with the company or whatever. But like, I don't know, will that be something that people are into? I'm not sure. I don't know. Like, I know that people were interested in the Air Max 1000, but it also wasn't one of Nike's best sellers by any means. And so So like maybe this is something that ends up unlocking a new door and opening a new path for the industry. But it could be something else. Maybe everybody's just going to be wearing clogs in 10 years. I don't know. That sounds terrible to me. Let's hope not.

19:13And by the way, I mentioned earlier that like a lot of these brands, even if they were going to see a cooling off like these sneaker brands, there was always some kind of cultural moment or a pandemic even. that sort of gave them a second win. There is something coming up. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is where I think brands like Nike and Adidas are expecting. They're fully investing in that, giving them, I don't know if they'll call it a second win, but giving them some new momentum. Mike, do you see that adding anything? What's your verdict? I think that the World Cup will be a huge event for the industry.

19:47Nike is going full bore with this. So is Adidas. They have these different collaborations that are coming. They have these different partnerships like Travis Scott is going to be involved in the World Cup for Nike. And it doesn't even stop at the World Cup, honestly. Like in a few weeks here, we have the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan. And that's going to be a really big event, too. Maybe not as big from like a sportswear perspective because it's the Winter Olympics. You got to make your opera ski gear and like you got to come with the warm stuff because nobody's wearing sneakers in the snow. But 2026 is going to be a very big year for the industry.

20:29I was thinking the Super Bowl halftime show is another opportunity. I mean, that's become such a launch pad for fashion trends. And I could see there being some kind of sneaker or not a sneaker moment that helps accelerate things, too. Absolutely. I mean, Bad Bunny is Bad Bunny. And you know he's going to pull out something. There's going to be something. And I would be shocked if Adidas didn't make sure it was a part of that moment. Okay, to wrap things up, we're going to do a quick lightning round. We're going to get Mike's take on five sneakers, whether they're hot or not, in 2026. And basically have these styles peaked, Mike.

21:03So I'll start with the Adidas Sambas. Peaked or still hot? Still hot, but it's cooler. Onetsuka Tagre. Wait, what's the opposite of hot? I like how much he's deliberating here. I think you just answered that question. I mean, people like them, but it's not my bag. The A6 gel, 1130? Hot. Why are they hot? What's the criteria for hot? The criteria is if I walk outside and go down a city block in DC, do I see this shoe at all? And if the answer is yes, then it's probably hot still. If the answer is no, then... And just to calibrate people's expectations, in his neighborhood, everyone's wearing the mischief clown shoes.

21:47So you know how it goes out here. It's not great. I wouldn't say that this is the peak of fashion at all, but this is what I'm seeing. Close enough. All right. We got two more for you. They're both Nikes. Nike Air Rift. That's hot. Surprisingly hot. I did not anticipate this being hot. But people, I mean, Mary Jane's had a moment in 2025 generally. And I think in 2026, especially with the Skims collab, like this one is going to be one that we see a bit. I can be wrong about this, but. I can confirm I've never seen them on my block. I have not walked outside. I'm looking and they have not been worn on my block.

22:26But that's not saying much. My neighbors are like 80 years old. They're not wearing any of these sneakers. I can guarantee it. They're wearing some nice Keds Pia-pedia, you know, prescribed sneakers. I think it's interesting, though. We've mentioned several hot Nike shoes. I mean, when was the last time they were this much in the conversation? I mean, that's, I think it's a meta-narrative here. I don't know. It's been a while. Yeah, yeah. All right, last one. Nike Air Force One. Always going to be hot. Always going to be hot. 2026 in particular is going to be a very hot year for the Air Force One.

23:01All right. You heard it here. Well, that's the only one that I have from the list in my closet. So that makes me feel good. Yeah, Mike, how many of those do you own? And you got your wall of sneakers behind you usually. One. One? Yeah. The Jell 1130. Air Force Ones look great. I look stupid in them. I'm sorry. I can't wear them. I'm sure that's not true. It's true. Just take my word for it. Mike, I think you could pull off any sneakers. And on that note, I want to thank you for joining us today. Thanks, Brian. Thanks, Sheena. Please be sure to check out Mike's article, Have Sneaker Sales Finally Peaked?

23:38and sign up for his sports and fashion newsletter, The Kicks You Wear, at businessoffashion.com. These articles and Mike's newsletter are available to BOF professional subscribers only, and you can find the links in the episode notes. You've been listening to The Debrief, produced and edited by Olivia Davies and Eric Bria. I'm Sheena Butler-Young. And I'm Brian Baskin. We'll be back next week with a new episode. Thanks so much for joining us and be sure to follow us wherever you get your podcasts.