The Influencer Follower-Count Era Is Ending

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0:38hello and welcome to the debris from the business of fashion where each week we delve into our most popular bof professional stories with the correspondents who created them i'm senior correspondent sheena butler young for years the clearest sign that an influencer had made it was the number sitting at the top of their profile, follower count. More followers meant more reach, more brand deals, and usually more money. But social media doesn't work that way anymore. TikTok's For You page, Instagram's suggested posts, and other algorithmically curated feeds mean creators can reach huge audiences without those people ever following them.

1:18At the same time, affiliate marketing is giving brands a clearer picture of who actually drives engagement and sales, with smaller creators often performing particularly well. So if follower count is no longer the defining measure of influence, what replaces it? BOF's U.S. editor Diana Pearl has been reporting on how brands and creators are rethinking the value of an audience. Welcome back to the debrief, Diana. Thanks for having me. So we should start probably with the metric itself, follower count. For a long time, that was the defining shorthand for a creator's value. Why was that so important?

1:53You have to remember, influencer marketing is still a relatively young industry. Like it's only been, you know, a thing at all, I'd say for like a little over 10 years. And then it's really only become this huge behemoth in the last, you know, five to six years. So because of that, they're just at the beginning, there wasn't many like options available when it came to determining who the best creator was to partner with, how effective a certain creator could be. the follower count is like right there. It's at the top of your profile. And, you know, advertisers do a lot of times think about reach.

2:25You know, you think about, you know, television advertising, and obviously you think about the demographics of the audience you're trying to reach. But like, there's a reason the Superbowl is the most expensive ad slot in a novel of advertising. It's because it's a big audience. So usually it just sort of goes with the standard thinking of big audience means they make more money, more success, et cetera. So really, it was more a product of, you know, the fact that the industry hadn't really matured yet. And obviously, it's still going through that maturing process. But we're in a very different place in the industry now.

2:58And I think it's just caused influencer marketers, brands to just think differently about, you know, how do we really determine and judge success? And there's probably a more basic factor at play here. It's like being in high school, the popular person. Like even if there was, there were probably a lot of people that never thought they were going to make a business out of it to your point that it's about 10 years into being a full on industry. It was just, you looked cooler if more people were paying attention to your page, regardless of anything else. And fashion and retail obviously care a lot about who's cool and popular.

3:28Totally. There's, and I don't think that's fully gone away. Like there's a cachet in having a lot of followers and that, that still exists. But now I think that just the business reasoning behind just choosing, you know, for a partnership or a campaign, choosing the influencer with the most followers. It's just a little weaker now that there's so much more data that brands can look to to determine who to partner with. And that's sort of a nice segue into my next question, because something I've been saying sort of anecdotally to friends in the industry, but also just like in my personal life, there's a lot of people with a lot of followers now.

4:03At some point, you've got to start to filter out what kind of, or the value of each number across the board. Like if 10 people have a million followers, you have to now qualify that one million. So the chatter around a macro influencer versus a micro influencer, I remember that existing very early on, even if we weren't labeling them as such. It was based on conversion. Like someone can have millions of followers, but if you are a fashion brand or retailer, that million doesn't mean that those people are going to convert. What's actually new today about, you know, making the number less important?

4:37What are some of the things that are newer? You know, for a long time, it was just hard to determine which influencers were the top converters for you. You know, LTK, which is the incumbent influencer monetization platform, for a long time, they didn't offer a ton of data around who was driving sales for you, just that influencers on the LTK platform were driving sales. But you couldn't see which individual creator that was unless you were running a paid partnership with them. And ShopMy really changed that. They offer brands a lot more insight into which creators are actually driving sales, even if they're not running a paid partnership.

5:09So you can just notice, oh, this one girl is linking to us a lot. She's driving a lot of sales. She only has 40 ,000 followers. It's maybe not someone that you would have come across organically or found on your own. But she's a really big, strong advocate for our brand and an effective advocate for our brand. The other thing that's a factor here is the affiliate marketing of it all. For the uninitiated, assuming that everyone listening is not an influencer, what is the TLDR definition of affiliate marketing and what's the role of that in all of this in this shift, I should say? Yeah, affiliate marketing, I would say, has always really been the backbone of the influencer industry, the creator economy.

5:47You know, it's when you share a link to a product, someone clicks on it, they make a purchase and then whoever's link that was, they get a cut of that purchase. So I think that that availability of data, you know, ShopMy really changed the game. LTK now offers a lot more data to brands because, you know, ShopMy kind of just changed the standards and the norms. But there's so many more platforms out there now that allow you to get a better picture of how effective an influencer marketing campaign is. And I think that that has just opened things up a lot in terms of, you know, what brands are looking for in terms of who they want to partner with.

6:20I think creators now also have more data to back themselves up and say, like, I'm worth the investment, even if I don't have, you know, 100 ,000 or 500 ,000 or a million followers, which I think is really important. And then also, of course, you know, the TikTok of it all. Like you said, there's just so many more people now who have a ton of followers. You think about especially in the early days of TikTok, you know, during the pandemic, there were people who racked up followers and followers and followers. But that doesn't necessarily always translate to actual influence or even, you know, like relevancy and the cultural zeitgeist.

6:52One of the marketers I spoke to for this story mentioned, you know, the parallel of you look at someone like Dixie D 'Amelio, who has almost 54 million followers on TikTok. But she was one of, you know, the first people who really popped off on that app and, you know, obviously had her moment. But I would not say now is as culturally relevant as someone like Alex Earl, who has not even nine million followers on TikTok. Follower count can be a product of so many different things. You even think about like someone else mentioned, you know, you think about a Sports Illustrated model. They might have millions of followers, but they might mostly be men.

7:26So if you're a fashion brand that's trying to, you know, reach women and sell women's wear, that's probably not the best partner for you. You know, the follower count number, it just it can be a product of so many different things. It can be a product of a viral moment. It can be a product of you join the platform at exactly the right time. So I think brands have realized they just need to dig a little bit deeper. Some brands, I think some brands are still waking up to this a little bit. Yeah, exactly. And it's funny because I think there was a time someone said in the newsroom this phrase that I've been using over and over again, which is like the algorithm giveth and the algorithm taketh away.

7:55So there's been so many changes over the course of social media and these platforms from Instagram to TikTok and then obviously the world of YouTube that affects how any of this shakes out over time. One of the things that's newer is the For You page on TikTok. So you have all these followers that may never see your content or you have someone that has not a lot of followers and people are just gobbling up their content. How has that sort of thing changed the game, especially the For You page and Instagram suggested videos? Because I think we all just look at that now. Yeah, definitely. I think that the For You page and the suggested posts, like that combined with the greater availability of data, that has just completely changed the game.

8:37Those are the two primary factors that have really diminished the importance of follower count. Because like you said, you can have someone with 300 followers who goes viral and gets videos seen by everyone. I also think that just the habits of social media users have changed. Gen Z because, you know, they're really the generation that grew up on TikTok, they might not even hit the follow button for people they like. They just, you know, like the videos and trust that they're going to come back in their algorithm. And like you said, now there are people I follow on TikTok and it's like, I'll go a year without seeing one of their videos just because it, you know, it falls off your algorithm.

9:11It falls off your for you page. So followers really aren't representative of who's actually seeing your content. And it's not necessarily representative of who actually has influence, you know, and I've talked a lot about the difference between influencers and creators and, you know, somebody who has 50 ,000 followers, but there are really loyal 50 ,000 and people are super invested and they're able to get people, you know, I think about someone like Brett Chody, who she started on TikTok and now, you know, has Instagram too. And she has like a big audience. I don't know how many on TikTok, probably 150 ,000 on Instagram, but she does these run clubs and she can get all these girls to meet up with her in person.

9:48You know, if you can do something like that, that's hugely valuable. So I think that just the For You page has really democratized, you know, who can go viral, who's a star on TikTok. And also it means that, you know, you can go viral and get a gazillion followers in a matter of days. But if you can't maintain that, that doesn't really mean much. I think, especially with the introduction of ShopMy, like I said, it's always really been the backbone of the influencer industry since LTK launched, I believe as reward style, I believe in 2011. But it's just, it's really changed with ShopMy because A, there's just more people on the platform or LTK I'm sure has more users, but shop, like the invention of ShopMy has really just brought more people into the fold who weren't necessarily doing affiliate marketing before.

10:33And there's a lot of people where that's their primary source of income now, but a lot of of times those people who do really well on ShopMy are not necessarily the people with the most followers. And because like I said, there's so much more data available now, brands really realize, okay, this person is converting for me and this person isn't. And brands are also being a little bit more experimental in the way they partner with influencers. So it's not just about, you know, cutting a check, writing a creative brief and, you know, an influencer does a post in their feed with the hashtag ad, you know, a lot of brands, especially smaller brands are doing these big gifting campaigns where they gift product to a bunch of different influencers, you know, in the hopes that they'll share the product on their feeds organically and then share an affiliate link.

11:17They can drive sales that way. The brand gets to see who exactly is driving their sales and being the strongest advocates for their brand. And then they could work with that influencer on a more, you know, longer term partnership or campaign or something like that. So I think now just the availability, and I know I've said it a zillion times, but the availability of that data and really being able to measure and know exactly who is driving sales for your brand. I mean, that's ultimately like why you're advertising. So I think having that knowledge has really just completely changed the game. We'll be back with more of The Debrief right after this.

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12:29so if we were going to think about what might be more important today than follower count it sounds like one is conversion actual conversion but what are the other things that have risen in importance alongside follower count or even maybe trumped it a little bit yeah definitely and i was actually going to say that exact thing of now it's really one of ten it's not like follower count doesn't matter but you can't look at it in a vacuum i think first the thing that matters is the quality of those followers? Are they in the demographic that the brand is trying to reach? You know, like I said, with the Sports Illustrated model, if you're a women's wear brand, you shouldn't be working with a influencer whose following is predominantly men.

13:07You know, also the quality of the follower really depends on the platform. So, you know, a sub stack subscriber who pays an influencer every month, that probably has more value than a TikTok follower who just, you know, very passively clicked follow after a viral moment. There's also the idea of like, what's the quality of your content like? I think especially for luxury brands, that's something that really matters. Like, are you creating good content? A lot of brands now are putting paid spend behind UGC. So they want, you know, the best quality content or the content that just fits their brand the most.

13:38So you need to look at what is actually the quality of the content like, you know, I think also there's the sentiment, you know, engagement has also always been a metric that brands look to and care about, you know, what kind of likes are they getting? What kind of comments, you know, how are people actually engaging with their content? But, you know, people could be commenting a lot on an influencer's post, but it's all negative and hate comments. And, you know, I guess all press is good press, but at the same time, those comments can tell you a lot. So if the comments are all like, you're so inauthentic or, you know, you're, you're lying to us or, you know, maybe that's not the right person to work with.

14:11If you're looking to have someone who has really has trust in their audience. And I would say trust is the number one most important thing that an influencer or a creator can curate today is to building that trust with their audience. And really, that trust is not something that necessarily can be measured by metrics on a spreadsheet. It's really more sort of a gut sense. Looking at, like I said, the sentiment in the comments, looking at, is this someone who's built a big sub stack newsletter with a bunch of paying subscribers? That is somebody who probably has a lot of trust in their audience?

14:45Is this somebody who can get people to gather at an event and meet offline? You know, that really matters as well. So I think just looking for those signs, even the style of content, you know, somebody who talks to the camera a lot probably has a deeper connection with their audience than someone who is totally faceless. People don't know them. They make beautiful content, but they might just not have that sort of deep connection. And look, you can use different influencers and different creators for different purposes. You know, maybe that person who doesn't talk to the camera and just makes beautiful content, that's someone to hire for their content creating abilities versus an influencer who talks to the camera and has that deep connection with their audience.

15:23Maybe that's someone that you want to hire more because you know they're going to sell product and convert sales. It's so fascinating. I was actually going to ask you because so much of this stuff is hard to measure, like what you want out of an influencer today, if you're a brand, comes down to trust and cultural relevance and their relationship with their audience, it's kind of hard to suss those things out, but you just sort of gave some examples of how. I wonder then what does it mean for an influencer today to constantly have to shapeshift? Maybe they all don't, but like, how is this maybe put into a tailspin, the career definition of what these people are building?

16:00Does it feel like every other month you have to change your strategy if you're an influencer or is there value to playing the long game and staying the course. Because if I had started out as an influencer five years ago, what I thought I had to do would be so different than what I had to do, what I would have to do today. I think a lot of people rode the waves of follower accounts. I'm thinking of people that got on a TikTok early or an Instagram early and they still have that bright, shiny number at the top. And that was doing a lot of work for a long time. And now it's, it seems like there's a lot of recalibration.

16:31I imagine that has to happen. Yeah. You know, I think that playing the long game is really the best strategy and staying true to yourself, staying true to who you are. That's how you build that community. That's how you build that trust in that community. You know, not just hopping on every trend, you know, an attempt to go viral, or if you do do it in a way that feels very authentic to you. You know, I feel thinks about some of the recent TikTok trends of like the, you know, kind of chic too, or, you know, the Netflix documentary and things like that. Like there are creators that have been creating forever and I saw them do those trends, but what they said in the video was very reflective of their content.

17:10You know, I do think there also is a fine line. If you're just hopping on every viral trend, even if you're putting your own spin on it, like people want to see innovation. They want to see something interesting. Like they don't want to just see the same thing done by a gazillion different people over and over and over again. So I think there's a fine line of deciding like, when is the right moment to participate in a trend? When is it not? But yeah, I really, I think about the influencers that I've followed for years and years who have always sort of just, they've stayed true to who they are.

17:37They're not shape shifting. And obviously you have to adapt your strategies, whether it's, you know, launching a sub stack, maybe getting on YouTube, finding these new, deeper ways to connect with your audience. But I think just at the, at its core, your content and the message of your content should always reflect who you are. And that's not saying that you as a person have to stay the same forever. We all grow and evolve. But if you explain where that evolution is coming from or why your style has changed or how your life has changed, you know, there's people who I started following when I was in college and they were college students and now they're married with kids, you know, and obviously their lives have changed a lot.

18:13But you still feel like you know them and you've been on that journey with them. And I think that's really what builds that deep community and that deep community connection. And those are the followers that you really want to like bring along for the ride with you. The people who know you, feel connected to you and again, have that trust in you. Is there a case of the kind of scenario where a brand would actually see an influencer's large follower count as working against them? You know, I don't know if they would necessarily discount someone, but I think that brands look to different types of influencers for different purposes.

18:48You know, if you're running a big campaign and you want it to be really focused on driving sales, you're probably more likely to work with a greater number of smaller creators than work with a smaller number of bigger creators. You know, I think the thing that we're being a bigger influencer, having a bigger following could potentially be a downside is that oftentimes those people charge more money. So if a brand, you know, if it's a smaller brand doesn't have the same sort of budgets or that sort of thing, then, yeah, maybe they're not going to look to those big people. You know, I think that there is still an obviously an argument and a real place for macro creators in the creator economy.

19:24I also think that there are some macro creators like I think about someone like Julia Berolsheimer. She is definitely one of like, if not the top or one of the top converting influencers on ShopBuy. And she has over a million followers. She's been doing this forever. So she kind of is that perfect sweet spot of like she's got a big following, but also she can convert. she has that deep connection with her audience. So there are people who can do both. And then there are people who they have a huge audience. If you want to just get your brand name out there, you know, that's, that's the way to do it.

19:55But I think that there's a sweet spot in the middle. And, you know, if I were a creator, that is, would be my goal of, you know, okay, try to grow your audience. And, you know, I don't think any creator is like, oh, whatever, you know, I don't care about growing my audience. I think they all would like to see that number go up, but they don't want it to go up in a way that isn't actually going to add to their community, isn't going to actually, you know, make a meaningful difference in their business. We'll be back with more of the debrief right after this.

20:34Back to the brand point, there was something in your story that talked about maybe, maybe it's an emerging strategy, maybe it's becoming the norm, but a lot of brands are spreading out the love across nano to micro influencers rather than taking a big financial bet. A lot of the macro influencers are very expensive. And so what they found to be a better bang for their buck is to spread out that spend across nano to micro influencers. Is there anything else that's sort of emerging as the dominant strategy that brands are employing now, now that follower count is not the leading proxy? You know, I think brands are just being more, they're putting more money into influencer marketing, but they're being smarter about how they do it.

21:11So maybe they're starting off with a gifting campaign where, you know, they're like, okay, we're going to gift product to a thousand creators. We're going to see then who shares us, who is actually driving sales for us. And then maybe looking, okay, let's take the top 100. And then we'll do, you know, a paid campaign with them or a paid ad or a paid spot. We'll take the top 15 and maybe we'll take them on, you know, a trip or, and have them create content for us on, this sort of trip and deepen that relationship. And that's why, you know, you see sometimes now influencer trips, you could have someone with a million followers and someone with 50 ,000 followers, but that those people in this could be driving the same amount of sales for a brand.

21:50They could be equally as important despite the fact that one has a bigger audience. So I think that it's really just about evaluating like who is the right fit for you. Who's an actual fan of your brand? You know, you, somebody who's an authentic advocate, somebody who would talk about your brand, even if you weren't paying them or gifting them free product. And I think that sort of thing matters a lot more than just how many followers they have. So I guess my last big thought is sort of where does this all go? As you were speaking about, you know, the influencer side of it, but also the brand side of it, I've seen you have this conversation outside of this podcast, you know, on panels and elsewhere.

22:25It's like the little creator economy is growing up. Like it's growing up on all sides. Like it's maturing beyond its, you know, its earlier nascent days. Where do you think we go next? Where does this go from here? You know, for years, I have talked about seeing this blurring of the lines between influencer and regular everyday social media user. And that has just continued and continued. Now, there's so many people who have shot my accounts who they have full time jobs. This is just a little side hustle and a way to make a little bit of extra money. I think we're seeing a lot more, you know, social media users with 3 ,000, 5 ,000, maybe even a thousand followers sharing products they like and behaving more like a creator.

23:06And I think we're just going to continue to see that line blur. And people who have influence online probably also have influence in real life in their social circles. You know, they're probably the people that their friends text and say, like, you know, which sweater should I wear to this event or, you know, what dress or what have you. So I think that we'll just continue to see more people, you know, monetize their influence and brands be able to take note of, OK, this is somebody who has influence and we can use them in our marketing. And maybe one day we can all be macro influencers in our own right.

23:38Right. I feel like we are looking to a world where like everyone is kind of an influencer a little. I would agree. I would agree with that. I absolutely agree with that. Diana, thank you so much for joining us. Thanks, Sheena. please be sure to check out diana's article why follower count matters less than ever at business of fashion.com these and other stories are available to bof professional subscribers only and you can find the links in the episode notes you've been listening to the debrief produced and edited by olivia davies and angel nemov i'm sheena butler young we'll be back next week with a new episode thanks so much for joining us and be sure to follow us wherever you get your podcasts

24:19Thank you.