TDI Podcast: Chips and Dips (#979)

26:16But yet, how is the dollar so important to U.S. stocks? I get that we have an export component. I get that we have multinationals that do business in other places. But what they end up doing is they just talk about constant currency and whitewash the whole thing in their earnings. Right. Well, actually, I happen to be an accounting major and I will agree with you. It's an art, not a science. And they can manipulate and hide a lot of things there. So you're right. I'm not an economist, but I do know that it's just history. If you pull up a, the last couple of years have been odd with the dollar and all other assets.

26:54And I blame it on all the stimulus that came in after COVID. But historically speaking, stock market has done, performed well with a weaker dollar and vice versa. It's not always the case, but I think when we're talking about a stock market with valuations where we are, I'm kind of the type of person that looks at things. And if it seems too good to be true, I assume that it is. And sometimes that works against me having that mindset. But, you know, I look at all the things that are going on in the stock market. For example, today, retail traders piling into Wendy's. Is anyone eating at Wendy's lately?

27:30I mean, you know, so these kind of speculative oddities to me are just really a red flag. I've been, for all fairness, I've been saying this for a year, year and a half now, and it just keeps proceeding. But that's what happens when everybody piles on one side of the boat. Everybody that's not on one side of the boat goes, hey, what's going on over there? And they want to kind of pile in. And what I always say with the boat, continuing with this analogy, is all of a sudden that boat starts tipping. And what do they end up doing? They run to the other side, and that creates even more of a problem because the boat eventually tips over.

28:03The fact of the matter is that right now I think what we're seeing is an interesting scenario where something's going to break. Something is going to break. And I thought that the micron earnings this week was something very interesting, combined with the announcement that Apple's raising prices, combined with the fact that Xbox is going up$150, combined with the fact that we're seeing that Dell is going to be about a 28%, I think it's 28 % next week, increase across the board for major computers. Eventually, there's going to be a point, and I shared this before, I'm going to tell you this. I recently, when I say recently, two days ago, I said I want another computer from my office in particular.

28:45Everybody else kind of, you know, our studio is great. The other offices are great. Everybody's like, okay, we're fine. I'm like, you know what? I want one that's about five years old. Still a great computer, but starting to lag a little bit on a few things. I went to price it. $5 ,700 was the first quote I got for nothing fancy, just a computer. Really? That's funny. Holy smokes. Holy smokes. Yeah, that's crazy. So I ended up doing a little maneuvering, and I got some other things done, and I ended up getting for about$3 ,200 a great computer, i9, you know, 64 gigs of RAM, blah, blah, blah, all this stuff, right?

29:19But even$3 ,200, which may sound like a bargain for$5 ,700, is still extraordinarily expensive. And the prices are going up in the next few weeks. People are not going to be able to afford this kind of stuff, which is going to create an oversupply in a lot of areas. The only current buyer right now is the corporations that are raking in money from other corporations, paying them to buy the infrastructure and the compute power. It's a really fascinating time, but I don't know if it could last forever. Could it last longer than we anticipate? I think that's what we're getting at here, probably. But what are your charts showing you on that?

29:58Well, it's already lasted longer than I've anticipated. So, but you know, that's how these things go. And I think you're absolutely right. One thing I'll point out before I talk about the charts is, if you look at what we've seen in the last, let's say, since October of last year, when we had the crypto crash and things started selling off in crypto. All of this money, speculative money, hot money, whatever you want to call it, that's been rolling to different assets. It's really liquidating very kind of pretty rapidly, to be honest. So crypto started coming off. That money, I believe, mostly moved into metals, gold and silver earlier in the year.

30:33Now we're seeing full liquidation of those, you know, asset chasing positions. I think the oil situation is also a liquidation of leveraged funds. I know that there's some USO bearish positions and that complicates things a little bit. But if you look at the futures markets, speculators were long and they've been liquidating pretty quickly. When you see this type of liquidation pattern, it's only a matter of time before it hits stocks. People are raising cash and I think they shouldn't be. I personally have spent a lot of time in the last year and a half raising a ton of cash, hoping that maybe stocks will come back to earth so I can feel comfortable in the market again.

31:15But when I look at the charts, I see just, we'll go to gold and silver. I think I mentioned it on your show last time, but maybe not. Actually, I probably didn't, because I think this happened after. I actually legitimately think that silver was GameStop, not unlike what we saw in some of the meme stocks. We had all these bots on Twitter talking about people, you know, institutions are buying$10 ,000 silver calls. But if you looked at the quote screen on the CME, nobody was buying those options. The volume was zero, open interest zero. So there was like a lot of this fake news pumping and dumping these products, which is super unfortunate.

31:54And it's not a good sign for the health of the markets or the economy, in my opinion. But let's go back to gold for a second. Where is your, you did in this, again, this recent addition. Talk about gold a little bit. Where's your gold mine thinking that you're heading these days? So gold, I believe, is still in liquidation. Again, like oil, it can bounce$300,$400, because that's the type of volatility we're in. But I still think it's a sell the rallies type of market. I think we got so far over our skis that we're going to have to come into the mid to high 3000s before we even have any kind of resemblance of what maybe fundamentals should have been.

32:36In my opinion, we really shouldn't have got like, once we started busted over 34, 3500, I think it just became this momentum monster. They had nothing to do with fundamentals. It was completely detached from reality. In my opinion, I know other people. Well, it's like anything else. When I start getting calls about these things from clients, like, Hey, you know, I own a big chunk of gold. What should I do with it? I'm like, listen, we're at 4 ,200 now. What I think we should probably do at this point from everything that I'm looking at is probably start to think about setting some price targets, taking a little bit off the table.

33:08We could always get back in. We don't have to liquidate all of it. And when they call me back and they say, that's a great idea. And then a week goes by, I'm like, okay, what are we doing? They said, you know what? I'm going to wait until it gets to 5 ,000. I'm like, oh, okay. So it gets to 5 ,000. By the way, it gets to 5 ,000. And now I'm like, what are we doing? you know, I think about a hold on for a while. I'm like, I just don't think that's the best idea in the world. We didn't liquidate any of it. We didn't take any profits off the table. And what happens is this is more of a, it's more of a psychological behavioral finance discussion here where people seem to sell low and buy high, right?

33:51They can't get over it. Is this liquidation of gold and oil also tied to the dollar thesis? And is that going to cause more problems for the shinies and the slicks? Yeah. So I believe it is. I think a lot of the selling that we saw in gold in the last week, let's say week and a half, was almost entirely attributed to the, suddenly the dollar started picking up on the upside. So yes, I think that correlation was, we'll just kind of simplify it between gold and the dollar. There have been times where gold and the dollar go up together or, you know, they don't, they're not always negatively correlated, but they should be in a healthy market.

34:31We've gone through these periods of weird speculation and weird things going on where that broke, but I think we're going back to normalization. And I think - That would be nice. Because cross-market correlations have been shot to hell for years. I know. I know. It's been really, really rough out there for people, people that have been around a while that know how, you know, markets never act as they should, but there's kind of some guidelines that we assume to be true and they've been all broken. But I think we're going to go back to some sort of normalization. And I think that because I am optimistic about the new Fed chair, I'm hoping that he really truly believes that pulling back on the balance sheet and taking some of the liquidity out of the economy is the right move.

35:13I believe that's the case. And I think if he does that, I think it fixes a lot of problems. I think it helps strengthen the dollar, which works against inflation. It should push most assets down, including gold and silver. That said, so if we're going strictly just chart on gold, I've got some pretty good support around somewhere between 3 ,600 and 3 ,700. I suspect those people that were, you know, kind of waiting for a pullback or whatever happened to be on the sidelines, if there's anyone left on the sidelines, I suspect that's where they're going to probably try to buy gold. But I think the the bounces will be temporary.

35:49I believe if we truly are going to go back to normalizing things and pulling money out of the system, gold should probably have a tooth in front of it, not a three. So we'll have to see how it goes. But, you know, you talk about a lot of the work you do is in obviously in futures and options on futures. Can we talk about this for a moment? There's a difference between let's just start with the basics and kind of roll this for a second. You know, you talk about the basics.

36:17Carley Garner:We saw last week, I think it was last week, last week was quad witching, right? We hear of triple witching, quad witching. And when we talk about that, what's important to understand is that those are discussing options and futures, right? We got stock options, stock futures, futures options, futures, and I'm missing one somewhere in there. But that creates a lot of volatility. It does. You know, it does. On the futures side of things, it's really interesting because a lot of green traders get caught up in it. Especially this last one, actually, because of the holiday. It happened on Thursday, not Friday.

36:57Yeah, that was weird. It threw a lot of people off. So on the futures side of things, every quarter when we go into that expiration, the futures contracts stop trading at 8.30 Eastern time. I'm trying to convert the time so most people understand. 8.30 a.m. Eastern, the futures stopped trading. And then the options also expired in the morning, not the afternoon. That catches a lot of people off guard. And it does actually create a lot of volatility. That has kind of been minimized the last five years or so, though. It's kind of been decreasing as far as how much volatility it causes because of zero-day options and those sorts of things.

37:35When we only had options expiring every month or every quarter, it was a much bigger deal than now that we have them expiring. daily hour daily some markets have morning options and afternoon options it's a little crazy right so let's get into the back into this world of options where's where you live um you often talk about in your writings and your discussions and things we've talked about defined risk right that that's a big thing because i don't think i've ever really heard you like hey we're going all in on this, you know, naked put or whatever, you know, just this one-sided, but usually you're dealing with defined risk.

38:15And why is that? So we do, we do sell naked options sometimes. Last year, we were more aggressive in selling naked options than we are this year and probably will be ever again, just because things have gotten so wild that the margins are really, really high to sell naked options. And honestly, the risk is high. What we have done in the past is, for example, I'll bring up gold, even though I have a little PTSD. When gold started making its move earlier in this year, we sold calls against it because heck, the calls were wildly expensive. I'd never seen gold do that. The last time gold behaved that way was like 1979.

38:58I was two years old. So in my mind, we were within the lines and within probabilities. And so we sold calls and we were pretty comfortable with them, but we ended up buying micro futures to delta them out so that we were hedged nicely. So for 99.999 % of market environments, we were doing all the right things. But gold had that day where it was overnight, it was up like$180. And then the next day it was down like 280 or something crazy, maybe even bigger than that. And what ended up happening is our calls never lost value on the way down, but our hedges were slicing through equity as they dropped.

39:38So we're a little bit gun shy as selling naked options, but we will do it. In fact, we did it in crude oil on this big rally here because we felt pretty comfortable. We were able to sell, don't take my word for it. I'm kind of just going off memory. I think we were selling$130 oil calls when oil was at$90 and we were selling them for five or six grand. So we will do that sort of thing if the market just seems out of bounds, but you have to be very aware of your risk. Yeah, you have to be very, very aware of the risk because there's no free lunches in this stuff. When you're structuring a trade, do you start with a market view first or do you start with the risk that you're willing to take?

40:24Does that make sense? Right. No, absolutely. So I actually will start with monthly and weekly charts, looking at seasonals, looking at COTs and seeing what I think as far as probability of a market moving a particular way or not moving a particular way. And then from there, I start shopping for options and kind of guessing what makes sense. If options are really cheap, obviously we're not selling any naked options, but we might do some call spreads or put spreads or something with low and limited risk. Today, we actually were able to, in the wheat market, I don't know if any of your listeners trade wheat.

41:03No, we all trade wheat, yeah. Okay, so we bought a September 5-10. That's just W wheat, right? Just the symbol W? Is the first part of it. It depends on the platform, but yeah, it used to be just W, now it's ZWA on most platforms. Is there a gluten-free version? I wish there should be. But we were buying 5, 10, or I'm sorry, 6, 10, 6, 50 call spreads for a dime, which is like$500. And so you're putting up 500 bucks to make$1 ,500. So we love stuff like that. So when we see that, even if I don't think it's, even if I'm saying, I think it's about a 60, 70 % chance of pay it. I'm not super, super highly convicted.

41:48If it's, if the risk reward is that favorable, we will usually just take it. So sometimes we do. That's a three to one. Yeah. It's hard to be. And if it doesn't work out, what we would probably do is like, let's say wheat sells off the next couple of weeks, we would buy back our short call and just hold it as like a straight call option with unlimited profit potential and hope for the best. So we do those sorts of things. And are you looking at news when this happens? Are you like, okay, all of a sudden and the Straits of Hormuz opened up, the urea is going to be better. We're going to have wheat that's coming out.

42:16It's going to be better props. Or is it something about Ukraine that has a whole, you know, that whole, is it, or is it primarily just the technicals that you're looking at to see how that can be structured and set up? I pay attention to the fundamentals. I've got the TV going and my newsreels going all day, but I very rarely decide to trade on those. If you could just, you mentioned urea, Just scroll back a couple of months ago, most people assumed that higher fertilizer prices were going to cause higher grain prices. And right when that narrative was the loudest, the grain markets stopped rallying and rolled over very sharply.

42:56So it's been I've never really found a way to make money on the news, except for probably, to be honest, I probably lean more towards fading it. I was going to say a contrarian, usually when you have it, it's always too late. We talked about a few months ago, before they really started spiking, we saw that tomato prices were like$20 per case. And then they went to$40,$50,$60,$80 for tomatoes. And there was all these reasons, right? And we talked about, and I said, look, be careful because you're going to see produce prices going up pretty substantially over the next however long. And they did.

43:30And now they're starting to level off. And we got the things with beef, right? Beef prices almost at the top of the range of where they've ever been. and we got the screw worm back in the avocado prices. I mean, just the whole gambit of food issues. And now they're starting to finally get a little bit better. One of the reasons is that people also are backing off a little bit. I will tell you that, and this is anecdotal, totally non-tradable, but I went to the store and there was cauliflower. It was$9. $9. It was not organic either. I'm like, I'm not buying that. when I have that moment of, no, that's not happening.

44:12I believe there's a lot of other people doing the same thing. A hundred percent. I've, I've been saying that, like I've cut back on red meat substantially. I could technically, it's not going to ruin my lifestyle if I buy it, but just, I just can't, I just can't pull the trigger. So I get it. Yeah. So, okay. Okay. When you mentioned when you're structuring this trade, you will look at risk factors and all, and you'll look to do things like offset trades with futures and an option. So when you are dealing with the clientele, your people that you're advising and all that, what are they doing mostly?

44:54Like what are they doing all those same exact trades? So we, our clientele is pretty diverse. We offer a full service brokerage and broker assisted where I, I put out trade ideas on my newsletters and some of our clients, if they see something they like, they say, Hey Carly execute that for me. And I do it. So we do that. And that's pretty old school. There's not very many of us around that still do that service. Sure. But the vast majority of my clients are online traders. So I put out the trading idea. Some of them take it. Some of them don't. Some of it change it and make it their own because they're you know, they're just entering the orders into their computers and others are doing completely different strategies.

45:33Like we're usually position trading with options. I've got people trading with us that are day trading, scalping. I mean, you name it, they're doing it. So we're pretty diverse. But I would say most of our, we kind of attract the similar mindset of people. You know, we're not attracting people that are trying to. Buy money markets and buy and hold. Right. Right. So we're attracting people that are legitimately trying to, you know, base hit and make some progress. So with that, how does that work exactly? So you put out a trade idea. You say, you know, like you mentioned, we're going to buy, you know, a spread of this future and this option to limit our risk and all.

46:19And is that something you put on? But then you put out what requirements do you have or what limitations or I don't know, compliance issues do you have with regard to when you put your trade out for when you could put the trade on? Does that make sense? Does that you understand what I'm saying? Yeah. If you're talking about like for my in my personal account. Yeah. Yeah. There's there's definitely some rules. Basically, we I'm currently not trading a personal account. I'm taking a hiatus because things got a little bit crazy and I've it was messing with my head a little bit. So I decided to take a break from that.

46:52I'll get back to it. But for now, I'm not trading my personal account. The. And I actually find I give my clients much better advice when I'm not because I'm focused just on them. So, you know, we'll see how it goes. But with all of that said, yes, there's very strict rules. So if I were putting out recommendations to people and then also participating, you know, there's rules against me. Like I can't put it in my account and then put it in everyone else's account simply because the regulators are that front running. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you can't cherry pick if there's going to be certain clients who get certain things.

47:26I get that. You know, it's interesting you mentioned that idea of messing with your head and being careful because even advisors that are seasoned can get, things can get to them, right? And you could do things that maybe are emotionally driven. And I will tell you, I know other advisors also that people have said, you know, hey, I actually have clients that are advisors slash manage portfolios because they want someone outside to handle their assets because they can have a clean head for what they're doing. And usually those people, by the way, are not the people in the same exact business, but they're doing something different.

48:05They're trading. There are fixed income traders, right? Or maybe they're, like you said, like a commodity trade or something like that. So I think there's something to be said about trying to every once in a while step aside, because if you think about that, and I'm telling everybody this, if you think about having all your money wrapped up in one particular thing, there's no diversification. If all you're doing is giving advice on something, getting money from that advice, and the exact thing you're investing in, there's no diversification in your business. And if all goes to hell, that could be a problem.

48:34So you may not be making all the right decisions. And so I commend you for, you know, recognizing that point. It's a tough one. It took me a few hard lessons to recognize it, but I did. But yeah, you explained it perfectly. But it's the same thing. You need to be in it also because you need to keep, to some degree, in my opinion, this is my opinion. Oh, for sure. Yeah, absolutely. And I find that because my business, commodities is a lot, we work with shorter timeframes than you should with an investment portfolio. So I've also found that to be a problem, like a conflict of interest for myself, just because I'm thinking of what's going to happen in the next couple of months.

49:14But when you're investing your retirement account, you should be thinking of years, not weeks or months. So it definitely makes it complicated. So do you have a bread and butter go-to, this is like, okay, falls, fails. I like this particular structure, this particular setup on a regular basis. A particular spread, a particular commodity, a particular idea, chart that you're looking at? Because you do a lot of charting. There's a lot of charting you do. So one of our go-to speculations every year is, you know, the grain markets are nice because they're very seasonal. They generally bottom around the same time.

49:57They generally top roughly in the two or three month span. So I'm not going to say they're predictable because nothing is predictable. but they're a little more predictable because of the seasonality of growing seasons and things like that. So what we look at around this time of year, we know that the seasonal low in corn is generally, it's usually August, but sometimes it can be September. Occasionally, it might be a little earlier. But we know if we look for, you know, selling pressure late summer, early fall, that's usually a good place to get long corn. Now, everybody in the world knows that's with the market bottom.

50:30So you'll notice seasonals kind of, they're not perfect. Sometimes they come early, sometimes they come late. So what we do, and we've already done this for this year, is we're going along new crop futures, which is December, which is based on not the corn that's going to come out of the ground this fall, but next fall. So we're buying December futures, and then we're also buying put options beneath it. And so we kind of get the best of both worlds because if we do get continuation of selling, which normally does happen this year, we're hoping we can sell the puts and take a profit. And then maybe just buy a cheaper put with lower coverage and continue to hold that future.

51:04Because at some point between now and December, the odds are corn's probably going to be higher. It's just how we get there. So we like to do futures versus options where our risk is capped. We don't have to stress out because we know no matter which way it goes, we have some sort of skin in the game. So what about a no-go area? Something that over the years you've just like, you know what, it's too thin. The people in the pits are too lunatics. You know, there's too much of an emotional tie to this somehow. It is somehow just never priced right. Is there some particular instruments that meet that condition?

51:40Yeah, I will probably never recommend anybody trade cocoa again. Cocoa. Anyone that's all of cocoa. Oh, my gosh. That was a mess. Cocoa is traded on the ICE Exchange, which is an exchange that only houses a handful of commodity futures. So most commodities trade on the CME group. So ICE does things a little differently. They charge really high fees to get access to live data. So it makes it harder for retail traders to see what's going on. I think that adds to the chaos. They were very, very slow to raise margins when COCO started going parabolic. I think that added to the chaos. But what really got me was when Coco was trading at just wildly elevated levels, like just silly, to be honest.

52:27I don't know what else to call it. We started buying put options because our risk was limited. We knew we had tons of time. We were buying them with six, eight, 10 months to expiration. We knew at some point Coco is probably going to come down. And it did. But when it did, our put options like every day we would look at daily statements and it would the exchange would settle our options based on what they think is the fair value. And then our statement would say that the option's worth three grand or four grand or whatever it was, but we could never actually sell it. There was no one that would take the other side of our trade.

52:59And we would try to give the market makers like hundreds of dollars to fill it. In a couple of cases, we were trying to give them eight, 900 bucks in leeway to fill it and still couldn't get out. So we were just stuck with a position that ended up expiring worthless. On paper, it looked really good for a while, but we just so thin, we couldn't get out. The liquidity factor when it comes to anything is extremely important. That's one of the reasons we get the short squeezes in the regular markets, right? The stocks where you have liquidity is just not there. There was a couple of names like Avis Car, you know, Avis Car, Car Rental, Car.

53:31I went berserk. It went berserk. I'm like, this is, it goes from like$14 to like$600. I'm like, I have to take a little piece of the short here. I knew that the option probably wasn't going to work, to be honest with you, because there was probably so much embedded volatility and there was a known factor. And I looked at it and I said, you know what? This one, let's just take the actual raw stock and short it. I think I made like 350 points on it. All right. And that was great. But the point was that those don't come around that often. And I could tell you names, another name like Carvana, for example, personally, my personal account.

54:13I picked this up a few different times. It was a little bit too wild and loose and illiquid for me to buy for clients. And I said, for me, I could deal with it. I'm not going to buy that much to move the market. But I bought it. I sold it. I sold it short. It moved up. The liquidity was nothing. It moved up like crazy. I'm like, ugh. Their earnings came out. I think it was up like$150 a share. I'm like, ugh, that sucks. I was so pissed off. I sold it. But at the exact moment, I'm like, wait, wait, wait. And I bought the put at that exact moment, right? And I made out like a bandit on the put. and then I've held the stock short ever since.

54:45Awesome. But the point is, I guess my point is, liquidity factors play a major role in how something can work. And then what sometimes looks like it's a good trade can end up being nothing because nobody wants to take the other side. Right. Yeah. Which up until that point in my career, I had traded cocoa options. And I mean, they're illiquid, but the bid-ask spreads wide, but we could always get in and out of them. But during that period, you just let you in, but you couldn't get out. And so that was enough for me. I'll never touch it again. Tell me how people get in touch with you, please. So our website's decarlytrading.com.

55:20It's D-E-C-A-R-L-E-Y trading.com. We are a brokerage firm. As a client of ours, you would have access to our newsletters and trading ideas for free. But if you're not the type that wants to open a brokerage account, you can check us out on Substack. It's decarlytrading.substack.com. And you can subscribe to the newsletters there. That's great stuff. We'll also have the information on the show notes for episode number 979 on thedisciplinedinvestor.com. Always a pleasure to have you. Thank you for coming and sharing all the information. You know what I like? Carly, can I just be honest with you for a second?

55:52How refreshingly, I don't want to say honest. That's not the right word, but how you just lay it out. You just lay it out, good and bad. I can remember many times you're like, oh, that trade sucked. I got burnt on that. But a lot of times people just come on. They just talk about, you know, I call it the golf course discussion. Like, you know, I got all these AI stocks. I'm like, yeah, but what about those other stocks? Well, I don't want to talk about those. Let's just talk about these three stocks I have. But that's really great because I think people need to understand that this is investing.

56:22And investing sometimes means risk, which then translates into losses. And, you know, it is all fun and games when we get all the upside. But the reality factor needs to come in every once in a while. I try to be transparent. Thank you for that. I like it. All right. I'll see you soon. Thanks so much. Thanks a lot. All right. Another episode is complete. It is done. It's in the books. It's in the can, as they say. Looking forward to an interesting second half of 2026 as next week we kick it off as the final quarter, final month of the quarter ends and we enter into July. The summer doldrums could be here for a little bit.

57:04Maybe time to strap on a little bit of protection. when it comes to the portfolio, looking at hedging, looking at options, looking at some things that may be taking some profits off of the top of a few things, waiting for those better opportunities. That's some of the things we're doing for our clients right now and as we do on a regular basis as well. Thank you for joining me this week. Thank you for being a part of this groundswell of education information. Thank you for telling other people about this and making this show what it is since 2007. and seven about to get to our 20th anniversary of the disciplined investor podcast coming out real soon.

57:43So thank you again. I'm going to see you again. Yes, I am. You can count on it. And that's going to be, that's going to be next week. So have a great weekend. Have a great week and I'll see you real soon.

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