TDI Podcast: Conviction vs. Courage (#967)

31:37And pardon me, I have a neighbor with his gardener doing the blow outside. If it gets a little loud. Doesn't he know we're doing a podcast? Can you, can you hear me? Okay. I can hear you fine. I can't hear them. Okay, good. I just, I apologize. So a couple of things, you know, we had humongous inflows into the equity markets over the last year and flows continued from October through January. really unabated and just massive amounts. And the markets didn't really go anywhere. They went into this narrow range. And the positioning, I think, has a lot of people holding stuff higher. Now, you can look at the, for example, everybody's talked about the MAG-7.

32:28The MAG-7 is down, that group is down 12 % year to date. And the S &P is down about 5%. 4 % right now. Qs are down 5%. So you have a lot of people that have been crowded into a lot of stuff. It was narrow. And I think it's the longer we go on without these performing, that's when we're going to start to see real money come out of the market. And I've seen the Goldman data. And I think you had a lot of fast money that shorted stuff. And I've been really good at identifying places in the market where people are off sides with positioning. Now, last Thursday, I forget, it was in late March, we had a really awful day.

33:21And I was chatting with one of my institutional traders, Dave Lutz, who's with Jones Trading, who's just a phenomena. He said, Tom, it's the second lowest volume day of the year next to January 2nd. And I thought, well, that doesn't seem like capitulation. And he handles a lot of large mutual funds, the ones that are based in Boston, the Fidelities, Putnam's, you know, the usual suspects. And he said he has not seen them do much. They're not selling. They're sitting on their hands. They're not necessarily in a giant rush to buy. It is, you know, the first quarter and they're not necessarily desperate to panic, even though all those funds are down on the year.

34:07I think it's just it's, you know, we've had this like buy the dip mentality. And last year, the buy the dip mentality was to buy every one percent dip. And now we're starting to see the dips not work as well. And, you know, it's sort of mindless when you have a market that's just sort of more in tune watching what the president is saying on his social media. And it's that's, you know, inconsistent as well. We don't know necessarily what's going to happen. But I think that the more he does that, the less the market's going to respond favorably. And let's just, you know, what's the elephant in the room is that you have the average price of unleaded gas in March is up from March, the beginning of the Iran war.

35:04It's up almost 40 percent. A 40 percent move in the average price of unleaded gas is going to move inflation higher. And it's also the number one trigger point for consumers to get really nervous. And they're talking, you see it on the news, you see everybody, you know, showing the prices in California or wherever. That hurts. And that's going to cause consumer slowdown in spending on other things, on consumer discretionary stuff. And, you know, I had someone yesterday say, well, the retail sales weren't bad. I'm like, those were February. And you didn't have a 40 % spike in unleaded, you know, the average unleaded gallon of gas.

35:49And that, to me, I think is really going to be a tell. And the longer it stays higher, it takes more money from consumers' wallets away from other things. And that's, you know, that is a concern. That, you know, macro 101 is, it's a huge, huge issue. Well, we know that there was also a lot of an uneven amount of pain and gain in the markets, right? When I say the markets, I'm talking about economically, the big picture, right? Where we see that this K-shaped economy, which is real, by the way, and we see that there's people that are in the lowest strata of income get hurt disproportionately more because what's happening here is they're on a fixed income.

36:32and with a fixed income when you go from$2,$3 to a gallon to$4,$5 a gallon, all of a sudden you are required to go to work, pay for that gas. You're not at the point where you're starting to do the carpooling thing yet, right? Where are you going to start doing that? Because right now it's temporary. It just went up. I could deal with filling my car up this week. Next week becomes a problem. When you have$20,$25 per week of excess in cost for a gas, I mean, talk about$100 a month to$1 ,200 a year. That is like a reverse stimulus. That starts to hurt. And now you have to pick what you're doing.

37:08Maybe you're not traveling to go on a vacation. Maybe you're not buying something that you would have bought a discretionary item. You would have bought maybe a new iPhone. You're not buying it. Maybe you're not buying the clothing. You're buying your food. But now you have the double problem with food. So I talked about this a couple of weeks ago, Tom, with regard to what we're seeing with food costs right now. Now, I'm going to concern. I'm going to just restate it for you and then I'll let you take off on it, okay? The problem is that we saw a really horrible situation in the beginning of this year with the cold snap in Florida.

37:39Many of the parts of the nation, they are, the Florida citrus and vegetables are a big part of what they buy during their early parts of the year when it's cold elsewhere. And that was a real problem because we saw yields on like corn and other vegetables go down to virtually zero. So strawberry prices are through the roof, fruit prices are through the roof. And now we have the next stage, which is the spring planting season. And in the spring planting season, one of the things that we're reliant on is like nitrogen and various fertilizers like urea that is stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, which is going to be a problem for yield again, moving into the second part of the year.

38:21So now, whereas we have higher gas prices, the potential for higher prices on all sorts of not only agriculture, but foodstuffs is going to be a problem. Now, put that into your calculus of, let's say, second quarter, third quarter consumer operations. Well, you're absolutely right regarding the fertilizer. And that's a global problem where there could be, you know, food shortages, not necessarily in the U.S., but in other nations and nations that really depend on higher yielding crops. And so that, to me, I think is a global concern. It's going to raise prices. I think that that is a really big problem that I hope, again, I hope this whole war ends quickly.

39:24I was hopeful that, and trust me, I have a lot of Iranian friends that I grew up in Los Angeles, And I knew, you know, I was close with some friends that were expats from Iran, some that were close to the Shah's family. And, you know, they're thrilled. They're like, we just want that regime gone. They're an awful regime. And so I'm not necessarily a fan of Trump. I'm still lock limit short Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. I'm lock limit short most politicians. But, you know, the thing is, I was hoping hopeful that there'd be regime change and real change with an oppressive country. But the longer this goes on and if we don't get the resolution fast and the Strait of Hormuz opens, I think there's going to be a real problem.

40:19And the other thing is, you know, regarding the markets, you know, I've been pretty good as far as, you know, being net short from January. I'm still net short. I've covered some things. I have about 20 percent in cash. I look for opportunities to buy when things get oversold. There's capitulation. Market sentiment gets really weak and market sentiment is weak right now. I just don't have all my indicators lined up. The DeMarc indicators show downside countdowns still in progress on the S &P, NASDAQ, the Dow, the Russell, and others. The other problem is that, and this is really where I get very nervous, is that when you've had a stock market that goes down, usually you have bond market gets inflows.

41:16And the bond market has seen rates move higher and the bond market going down. And that is a double whammy. Well, the problem, Tom, would you agree that Tom, the problem right now is a trust factor. You know, one of the things that the markets go on is, you know, in God we trust, backed by the full faith of. You know, things like this that are some of the core basic philosophies that we have now where there is no backing of, let's say, our currency. And in an environment that, well, every environment, what is the backbone of a stock market? It's confidence. When you lose the confidence, that's a problem, right?

41:59Because if you think, if you're confident that 10 years from now, 5 years from now, things will be good. You'll be buying. You'll be doing fine. Short term, you need the same thing. The lack of, let's just say, honest reporting, information, the true social stuff The clear and present and very obvious constant saying things just to prop up markets Let's not even talk about what happened last week with the$1.5 billion buy-in to index futures and shorting of oil 15 minutes before the announcement was made by President Trump, right? That's not just a little note to a friend. That had to be a board-based, big position move.

42:44Yeah, there's been a lot of that. And it's awful, and it's just sort of what the situation that we have currently. And I think that you had both sides of the aisle doing a lot of that type of stuff. Clearly, yeah. And it's pretty just much in the open today. And by the way, there's an ETF that's dedicated. The Unusual Whale Subversive is an ETF dedicated to finding what insider politicians are buying. All I'm saying is that we're not instilling confidence right now, which is a bigger problem. On top of the fact that things are already coming out of markets, where we're having prices that were increasing when they were supposed to be going down.

43:26And now we have this war and the oil and all this going on. Right, by the way, in the front of midterms. In the front of midterms. This is being done. So, you know, it's not good. Does this environment, right now we have oil clearly over 100 sticking around there. It's going to impact consumers, you said. Does this remind you right now, snapshot, more of 1973 or March 2025?

43:55I would say I've written about parallels with the 1970s where you had a double rip with inflation. And it was caused by some things that were different. But it happened to be with the Middle East and oil prices going higher and inflation going higher. I think it's very clear that the Fed, with all of this going on, they can't do anything. And with a new Fed chairman who probably said, you know, the first thing I'm going to do is cut rates, I think that that's going to backfire. And the long end of the Treasury, the rates will move higher. And, you know, the problem with Trump is that he thinks that the Fed is going to lower rates and that will lower mortgage rates and the long end.

44:55But the Fed really only has control over the two year. And if you have a huge deficit and you have a huge full national debt and both parties can take full blame for that. But that's going to, you know, keep rates elevated. You know, the one thing that would probably get the bond market to rally is if the equity markets really took a further dip down and you really had consumer confidence weakened. Because I don't think we've seen, again, I don't think we've seen capitulation. I don't think we've seen enough pain in the market. I think it's just become more an annoyance. I think people have a political fatigue that is rampant.

45:41I do. I mean, I just want to bury my head, you know, in my pillow at nine, just go, I can't take it anymore. But it's, and most, you know, portfolio managers, I can tell you from being one, it's very difficult to have any trust. Like you're saying, you just don't know what to trust and what's coming around the corner next. That's what I'm talking about. I'm talking about the trust factor, the confidence. That's why bonds have been going higher. That's why the dollar has been going lower, except for in the war, because the safety trade between the Swiss franc, the yen to a degree. Well, not the yen, not the yen anymore, actually.

46:16They're selling off the yen, but the dollar has become the safety trade. And that's only in a very strange time. But before that, the dollar was weakening precipitously. Well, the dollar is something that typically when there's market turmoil or geopolitical turmoil, the dollar rallies. And the other times you had the bond market rally as well. But one thing that a lot of people also don't understand is that as you started the talk today, a lot of people are leveraged. A lot of people are super long this market and they have been and they need liquidity. So there's a lot of, you know, what happens in markets that have these problems, they're going to portfolio managers or, you know, large funds or sovereign wealth funds.

47:12They're going to sell whatever is not nailed down and gold and silver can get thrown into that as well. And you had huge, huge inflows into those not too far back. And I actually, I shorted gold. And I told everybody, I said, I just think positioning is way off sides. And I covered it, made 10%. I bought it last week and sold it yesterday. And I made 4 % on the upside. But gold, a 4 % move used to be a whole year. Oh, my gosh. That was astounding. Now you have silver that's moving 10 % in a day. Yeah, it's pretty crazy. And it's become more of a meme-type trading vehicle. And again, I thought it was just positioning was offside.

48:04So I have no position in the metals right now. Again, you also have this private credit problem that you're losing confidence there. I happen to be pretty good friends with the founder and CEO of Blue Owl. And I haven't seen him for a bit, but there's very little confidence in private credit right now. 21%, 21.5 % repurchases that they just announced this week. Yeah. You know, that happens. Well, the problem is it shouldn't have happened because they sold everything to retail on this dream that this would be a great opportunity. And I talked about this and I don't want to talk about this because I've talked about this to death.

48:44But the bottom line is you told retail in passing that it wasn't able to be gotten to. Your money would be locked up. But you really didn't do that. You sold them on this dream. They can get an extra 200 basis points over normal, you know, with a period of time. And the bottom line is that because they don't really mark to market on a regular basis, you don't see any kind of sway in your valuation. And now what's happened is because there's a rush to the exits. But I literally don't want to talk about this. Seriously, let's stop that. I want to ask you this. When you look at today's markets, what stands out to you as the biggest risk that most investors are probably underestimating?

49:28That's a great question. Well, first of all, I think people have been accustomed to seeing their portfolios go higher. And if they're just patient, they go higher. But one thing that might happen is that they may go sideways for a year. They may go down more and they'll start to look for other things of what, you know, what, where can I put my money other than the spiders or cues? Where can I go? And that happened in the 70s. That happened after the tech bubble popped. You didn't have the NASDAQ make a new high for a decade. And there were a lot of trading opportunities. and certainly there'll be, I like this environment.

50:23I'll just say this because I like trading opportunities. I like seeing dispersion. I like seeing things get crushed down to places where people panic and I can buy them. And that's what I'm looking to do. I'm looking to be a buyer of really high quality. So what I try to tell people is when you do have these dislocations in the market, it's the time when you want to add quality to your portfolio that you couldn't buy. You couldn't stand buying at the higher valuations. And the same thing happened last April when everybody panicked in Liberation Day. Everything was getting to my levels that I wanted to see.

51:10I thought the S &P would be under 5 ,000 at some point in 2025. We got 4 ,800. Everything was oversold. Market sentiment was at 10%. We're at 15 % right now. And sentiment can stay down. So it's not necessarily - By the way, we're at 15 % with only a total like 7 % drop in the S &P 500. Now, mind you, a lot of things held up like the energy, but that's a small part of the S &P 500, healthcare, utilities all held up, staples. But the tech came down pretty well. But still, that was only down, if you look at just tech only, it was down probably, what, 12%, 14 % maybe from the high. You have the biggest weight.

51:55NVIDIA is down 5 % for the year. It's basically in line with the S &P. Apple is down 6%. Microsoft is down pretty good. Yeah, they've got a problem with their cloud. And I think ChatGPT is not necessarily turning out to be great for them with Copilot. I'm hearing not necessarily great things. I would probably be a buyer of Microsoft a little bit lower. Great company. I agree. I agree. Steady, but it's got to get to my my levels. So I think that you're going to have to wait and see a little bit further down if we get a capitulation. And for people that one of the things that I want to see is, of course, on the websites and newspapers, when they always show a trader on the New York Stock Exchange, which I don't even know if there are any there anymore other than CNBC.

52:51But when they're holding, you know, the face to the hand. indicator. Or better, better. No, no, the other one, the CNBC markets in turmoil. Yeah, that's, that's usually a pretty good sign of, or when they start bringing Jeremy Siegel out on a regular basis more often, when they bring out all the bulls, they just march them out there and they start doing that. But how, let me, when it comes to that, first of all, the obvious question, and I got a secondary question, how do we know? Is that the signal really that investors should look for about capitulation? What is that? What is it? Is it the high volume day that's maybe two times the average volume on a stock or maybe something on an index?

53:35I mean, what is really, how do you know? Well, there's a lot of different things. You know, one thing I like to look at, real high put call ratios. So if I'm seeing put buying off the charts versus call buying, and I run a five-day moving average of the equity put call ratio. If I see that spike higher to levels where it's like people are buying insurance on their house, it's on fire. It's too late. It's not going to work. That's kind of what I want to see. I like to see when the percentage of 50-day moving average within the S &P gets under 20%. It's moving towards there. I like to see DeMarc indications of buy signals, which I show on my site every day.

54:22I like to see an overwhelming amount of buy signals within the S &P. If I can get 10 % or even 20 % within a week of signals within companies, that's a good sign. I like to see when you see, again, it becomes front page news and it's on the nightly news. The stock market got killed today. That's the kind of stuff I want to see. But again, I think it's something to consider for people. It's a long year. If you're nervous, you can move to cash. You can always buy back anything, or you can buy better quality if things go lower. I just think that right now there's so much uncertainty. It's a frigging war with an adversary who's not necessarily waving the white flag.

55:21And I just get worried that they could do something that stands out a little bit more. and that's my concern. Obviously, we all don't want that. So how do investors, how do you get involved? If you pull your money out, this is a big problem. So investors will say, I'm going to cash. Get me out. I'm going to cash. I don't want to deal with this, right? The problem is that it never looks like a good time to get back in. Well, it's going up. Oh, well, it's a false breakout back up. It's too high. I want it to go lower. It goes lower. And what do they say? Oh, my God, it's going lower from here. So my question on that would be like, how should your average person that is not simply riding it out, how are they dealing with position sizing, not overexposing themselves?

56:16We do something here called one foot in, one foot out. It's a very simple and very basic concept where we don't have investors that are in cash, let's say, fully exposed anytime. We do a multi-pronged dollar cost averaging approach to get them back into the market. And then, by the way, full disclosure, Tom, we actually reduced positions this week in equities for the first time in a while. I have no problem with that at all. I think that one thing I try to stress to people is to, if I'm initiating a position, there's a lot of times where I'll just put a 2 % weight of what in my portfolio in a particular idea.

57:02And if I like the idea and I've done my fundamental work and the technical work lines up and I get a little bit lower or even goes higher, I can add up to 5%. And I keep my position weights there. I don't try to, you know, if I'm down, I don't try, you know, one thing I don't do is I don't try to make it back up in one trade. I don't if I'm wrong in something, sometimes I'll just take that off my board and say, I never want to be involved in this stock again. Or I'll see you months from now. I don't need to be here. A lot of people will try that blackjack type of thing where they lose three times and then they put more money down and try to make it back in one hand.

57:48And that is ill-fated. It could work, but it's ill-fated most of the time. So the best thing to do is when dollar cost average yourself in by the highest quality by the companies that you wish you could have owned when they were at the highs that are solid. They're not going anywhere. You know, if Apple went to 200 or below, you buy it. you know, last April I was buying Nvidia under 200. I was buying Apple under 200. I tried to just get into every possible thing I could at levels that I figured were good enough to own. And obviously it's a trade-off, right? It's the whole, but what about position sizing?

58:34You don't go in full bore, right? And explain that in a very easy to understand, because I know we talk about it and you and I will talk about it, we get it. But I'm telling you, for some people, it's like, OK, what exactly do you mean? Well, one thing that I try to not have more than 20 percent in one sector, I try to not have more than, you know, I don't have more than 5 percent weight in one particular idea. I don't recommend, you know, people trying to buy options, call options to make it back. you know sometimes when you get hit kind of hard and the market could get hit hard the worst thing you could do is try to make it back so fast and and if you give yourself the diversification in the best quality companies that have gone down because of the market and not necessarily because of some uh problem that that you know it's your blackberry and all of a sudden the iphone comes out, you know, I'm going to buy BlackBerry.

59:35You know, you want to stick to those solid quality names that get beat down and do your work, do your valuation work and just be, you know, somewhat patient. You know, it's easy. You lose money a lot faster than you make it. And I think people have the wrong idea these days that they want to make their money really fast. And it's It's frustrating for me because I've always lived in that realm of making money slower. And today it's the zero dated, you know, zero date to expiration options. There's triple levered stuff and people are trying too hard to make money and gambling. And I find that to be a troubling problem in the world.

1:00:26One of the other things that's really difficult is doing nothing. A lot of people think you have to do something. And I think this whole idea of doing nothing is kind of interesting where most people get it wrong on this whole doing nothing. Doing nothing doesn't necessarily mean taking everything out and putting it into cash, right? There's a doing nothing wrong and doing nothing right, doing nothing correctly. What does that look like for you and maybe some things that you can impart to investors? if you agree that there's maybe we don't agree with this i don't know yeah i know i i 100 % agree i think it's very hard for people that are staring at their screens or their phones or whatever and seeing other things go up or you know and they think oh i'm missing out on that sometimes it's like a psychological boost to take some time off um and and do nothing sit in cash Everything's going to be there a week from now or it's better opportunities.

1:01:28And forcing trades can be dangerous for your portfolio. And just look at the back and forth that we've seen. We've seen these incredible gap downs, gap ups. These can just chew people up. So I'm more than happy to tell my people I'm sitting in 20 % cash and I just don't have the confidence to be reversing and turning net long at this point. I think there's still more downside ahead. I would love to say we got the all clear. And when I do, it's usually when people say, are you sure? They think I'm crazy. But all the indications that I have, and I've used these for decades, they line up. And I don't need to get 100 % of all the indicators on the buy side.

1:02:25If I get to 75%, I'll start moving into the long side. But we still have a lot of unknowns out there. And I'm okay with some unknowns, investing into unknowns, but valuations are still elevated I'm not quite there yet. And I'm more than happy to miss an opportunity rather than lose money. You know, as you were talking, I was thinking about something. There is a huge difference between confidence and courage. And what I mean by that is when you use the word, I don't have confidence in the market, so therefore I don't have confidence in that investment right now. I don't have confidence at this level, right?

1:03:08That's how we describe it. Would you agree? but it's not, Tom, it's not you don't have the courage to do something. That's a whole different discussion, right? This is confidence that utilizing your fundamentals, your technicals, whatever it is that we particularly use to get a level that we believe is the right thing is the point. The courage needs to be there to act once that gets there. Confidence and courage, totally two different things. They do overlap at given times, but I think there's an important distinction that has to be made for that. Yeah, I, you know, I, it's, it's, it's funny, because usually when I, and Stan Druckenmiller said this recently in an interview that he did with Morgan Stanley, there's a lot of times where I'm buying some, you know, I'm turning that long.

1:04:00and it's still, I don't have the highest amount of confidence of exactly this is it, you know, everything's going up from, you know, right after I buy them. And if I have too much confidence, then I'm probably going to be wrong. So I like to have a little bit of nervousness of when I'm doing something. I know that sounds like, oh, you know, take all your emotion out, But, you know, the bottom line is it's money and you're making a call on something that may or may not work. You just have the probability of, you know, when, what's my time horizon? What's my sizing? What's my risk level? And if you have that in mind, you do have a bit more confidence.

1:04:49It certainly worries me when I have way too much confidence in something and it doesn't work. But with Drunken Miller, what he's saying is he has the courage to his conviction, but he may not be confident in the exact pricing. He has the courage to do what he needs to do. Well, I think it's partly, and I get it because I'm sort of on the same mindset, where you do your research, you do your fundamental work, you look at the technicals, you look at, you know, how people are positioned. and it gives you the confidence to make that call and say, at this level and at this price, with everything that's going on and everybody nervous and panicky and it's oversold, you can start to inch your way in and you're one foot in, one foot out type of thing.

1:05:47I'm very comfortable doing that. Yeah, good stuff. Thomas Thornton, Hedge Fund Telemetry. Tell us where we can get information about where you have your wonderful newsletters and your discussions and your ideas. So hedge fund telemetry is an offshoot of the work that I did at the firm that I was a partner at. And it has a lot of market sentiment stuff. We look at 40 different markets. We have charts on 40 markets every night. So you don't have to wait a week and figure out what the sentiment is. it's charted. It looks great. And it's really helpful. It's part of the process. I look at DeMarc indicators.

1:06:29I screen within the S &P each day and a bunch of ETFs of buy signals, sell signals. And we have a trade ideas portfolio, hedgefundtelemetry.com. We do have something new that I don't even think you know about, but it's coming soon. It's already out, but it's in beta version right now. It's called the big picture. And for people that don't necessarily want the day-to-day noise, which my stuff can be noisy and sometimes difficult to follow every day. It's a monthly note that looks at big picture themes and it has a risk score. It has the base case, bull case, bear case for levels for the S &P. And from the people that have seen it and people that have already subscribed that are only hedge fund telemetry subscribers now, I've had some of the best people that I know say that it's the best work I've ever done.

1:07:30So it's called the big picture. It's underpriced, which I've been told that too. Value, it's value, not underpriced, it's value. Listen, it's something that it helps having this, you know, having hedge fund telemetry helps my, you know, pay for Bloomberg's and, and, and funds my research and what I do and what I love to do. So it's, it's going to be good. And it's not for day traders. It's more for portfolio managers, registered investment advisors, and serious investors that don't want the day to day nonsense, but more, what's the big picture? Where am I going to make money over the next 6 to 12 months.

1:08:14Right. Good stuff. Thanks for joining us. I appreciate it. Thank you, sir. Thanks for joining me this week and every week. That was a great conversation with Thomas Thornton from Hedge Fund Telemetry. As I mentioned, we have some great guests coming up. We have Claire Flynn Levy coming up. We have Thomas Thornton. We also have lined up at Easterling coming up as well next month and a whole host of other people throughout the year. So I'm pretty excited. Next week, I think next week, I'll be actually a guest on the Wall Street Unplugged show with Frank Curzio. So I'm looking forward to that. Thanks for joining me this week and every week.

1:08:51Go over to thedisciplinedinvestor.com. If you want to understand more about getting back in, one foot in, one foot out, the lobster trap theory that we have on investing and exactly how we do things. plus our TDI Managed Growth Strategy, which is a long, short strategy, which may be just right for you if you're looking for both sides of the equation right now. You really should check it out. Love to work with you. Love to make sure that you are taken care of for your future. See you soon.

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