TDI Podcast: Profit on Predictions (#943)

28:19They're just like, just let my money. Most people don't. Most people don't. Let my money do its thing. Meanwhile, by the way, this is a year, 2025, where some of the concepts that weren't supposed to be happening, like your emerging markets, doing incredibly well. You talk about quantum. Most of these don't have any business to speak of. Of course. You talk about some of our best investments are our small modular reactors. Those companies, holy crap, those are out of control. Right, and you're not going to hear about those on CNBC or Wall Street Journal or even on Twitter. Well, that's because every single analyst, what they do is, What's your best idea?

28:54Meta. I mean, Apple. You don't get fired for saying that. And by the way, they're getting rid of analysts because you can do all this work on Claude. Oh, they should. I mean, analysts have been terrible for years. The economists have been even worse. But, you know, there's a lot of things that are changing. You know, one of the fascinating things about our current investment world right now is this merging and blurring of the lines between not only Silicon Valley, but also the investment world, corporate America and the White House or the administration or the U.S. government. You know, this is, it seems to me, you know, we saw the Intel deal, the MP Materials deal, you know, and others.

29:42And what's fascinating to me is I was under the impression, wrongly so, because, you know, I just, I guess sometimes don't think through that it's only going to be a temporary issue. that state-owned enterprises is when a government takes a position to favor that particular company for some reason, whether it's domestically or internationally, and that was something that we were always really pissed off about. Yeah. You know, like a Kyle Bass. Guy hates China. Let's just get that on the table. There's no question about that, right? But one of the big things he talks about is a whole state-owned enterprise issue and how they popped up the real estate markets and all this.

30:23And they've done it. I don't know if we've come to the conclusion that, you know what, that's a good idea, or were we jealous about this? Or I don't understand what's happening because it's been embraced by investors. Wow, this is a great idea. Let's have the government-owned piece of these companies. Well, you're overthinking it, okay? I like to think of people as not that sophisticated. I think Trump is all about enrichment. And we could argue all day about the politics, but I take the politics out and go, let's look at the history of the person. He tends to blow up. He tends to brag. But he now has power.

31:03So what is, you know, in this case is he's easiest way for him to trade is not have instance, just to be a part of every startup. So think about what Silicon Valley did. They went, it used to be Wall Street. that we were worried about, right? We all hated, it was so much fun to hate Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan and Bank of America because they were kind of stupid, evil and stupid and mean and charged exorbitant fees. And you knew they were the criminal in the room. But you didn't expect them to blow up with leverage. You just didn't know what to expect because they had such good business. Why do you need to cheat?

31:46Okay, so we hated the banks. But I long for the day. We are going to long for the days that Wall Street and Goldman Sachs were partners with the White House, right? Because we knew, because with Goldman Sachs, we knew their deal. We'll take 2%. We're going to screw you. We're going to take our fees. The deal may or may not work, but we're in for that. That's what we do. We come in with our suits and we pillage you for our 2%. Some deals work, some deals won't, right? Right? Transaction-based world. Along comes Silicon Valley. And these people are hedonists. They have so much money. They think they're smarter than everybody.

32:28And again, not all of them, but I'm saying this is Silicon Valley. And they have incredible wealth. And they also have different values. Like as libertarians or like the world could end, they don't care. Like if you think about Peter Thiel. Like everything's a game. And so now they have taken over the White House So Silicon Valley, we have two things going on We have Silicon Valley partnering with the White House Married to the White House, integrated with the White House And there's some good and bad with that Yes, Trump is getting rich And yes, the Trump family has money now And every great startup, trust me From nuclear to infrastructure to space That family is going to have Putin-like wealth because they don't even have to do insider trading.

33:15They are literally in the seed and A rounds of every great energy and infrastructure and data company and Chinson Huang's walking in there and cutting 50. It's just pillaging. It's not Wall Street pillaging. It's absolute enrichment of insiders at the White House. I don't know what to tell people. That's what's going on. You can, I don't know what to do about it, but that's what's happening. At the second order of this is Wall Street missed, like, totally disregarded retail forever, right? They treated them terribly when they had the power over them with 20 minutes delayed news. And then they ignored Robinhood and Coinbase and let Silicon Valley make all the money off the reimagining of trading.

34:04But they're not going to let that happen this time. So we have this incredible era where both Wall Street and Silicon Valley are booming together and in cahoots with the White House. So the Wall Street is embracing retail. If you think about Polymarket and Kalshi, they're very early backed. You know, ICE just put$2 billion into Polymarket. They're not going to mix the next Robin Hood. And so Wall Street is much smarter this time and is embracing retail. They don't want to blow up retail. They realize retail is going to be 30%, 40%, 50 % of trading volume. And then thirdly, you still have for the 90 % that want to just invest, there's never been a better time to just low-cost, dollar-cost average invest into index funds or direct index.

34:59So there's something for everybody right now. If you want to be mad all the time, there's something for you. If you want to be out of the market, cash is earning 4%. You can go buy commodities and it's a bull market. If you want to start a company, it's never been easier to start a company. But if you want to get mad, there are so many things that will get you mad right now and get you out of the market. And I think that's an important point too. It's never been a better time to get invested or it's never been easier to get invested. And it's never been harder to hold on to your investments because of all the news and misinformation and aggravation out there.

35:39So that's what's going on. That is truly what's going on. And the people that love investing, the people that love investing, it's a great time to be a degenerate because you can bet and trade on anything. You know, it's interesting because you make a really good point there that it's almost right to be involved. It's almost right not to be involved, depending on who you are, right? And where we are right now, you know, we look at whether you want to look at the fundamentals or the technicals. You want to look at this or that. You want to be, like you said, be mad and angry that we're getting ripped off by it was just Pelosi and a few of those guys.

36:18Now, everybody seems to be in it. But here's what I always say. I always say, you know, Howard, go play that slot machine over there. And you're like, why? I'm like, well, it's rigged. I'm not going to play the rigged slot machine. Howard, it's rigged in your favor. That slot machine pays out every single time that you go to it. And some people are like, I'm not going to do that. I'm like, why not? Just go over there and put a quarter in, see what happens. Kind of where we are. Yeah, we're at this incredible moment, and we're not going to be able to fix it, right? Like my kids, 27 and 26, really, one's into investing, one's not into investing.

36:54Like you can't, they're not all going to be into this language of investing that I've been harping on for the last 20 years. But it's only going to get easier to onboard and it's only going to get easier to make a bet or to make a trade or to speculate. And it's only going to be more free time, not less free time. Now, this is barring war or some catastrophic events. There's always some issues that I'm, you know, you know, a swan out there that I can't predict. But overall, you need to focus on keeping distractions away. And the good news is this is all just, you know, mind over matter, right?

37:39If you don't want to use the Twitter app, which I don't, and I love Twitter, it'll take you about three days to get rid of the habit. There's nothing on there that you're missing. and so you've it's up to us in a distraction-based world it's up to our parents to teach the kids it's you know we have to get people web 2 and and zero percent interest rates and zurb created a lot of bad habits embedded a lot of bad habits and then you have bad leadership on both sides and COVID and distrust. I don't know what fixes that. So instead of complaining about it, it's up to parents and young people to just take control.

38:21Stop blaming. Yep. Stop being upset about everything. Just put the phone down. Like there's so much opportunity for people that just put in the work right now. And you know what I said? It's also easier than ever. Do you remember a time? Easier than ever. Do you remember a time? I mean, we can talk about the stock market too, but I remember a time relatively recently that somebody said to me, you know, I want to, I want to start buying Bitcoin. I'm like, okay. It seems really hard. I'm like, Oh, Oh, well, okay. You know, this is before Coinbase and all that. I'm like, yeah, well, you got to do this.

38:51You got to, it's like the old days of, do you remember way back when, when you wanted to like play poker online, you had to like send your money to some international place and it had to move over. Then this one, and then if you ever want to take your money out, it was a whole process. That was like the initial Bitcoin cryptocurrency stuff, right? It was like, really, how do I do this? How do I get money? But these days, stuff is so easy. They make it so easy. You just take a picture of a check on your phone, and yeah,$10 ,000 lands in your account within a day. No, but like I said, never been easier, never been harder to stay invested.

39:26So what people have to do is have a plan, and they have to surround themselves with people that help them do the right things, right? These are healthy habits. It's for long, it's, you know, there's all this talk about longevity. You and I, you know, I'm 60. So all I think about, I don't think about longevity like the crazies are thinking about it, but I think about longevity like, hey man, there's enough information out there that am I supposed to be doing more weights than cardio? Like diet, so sorry, nutrition, weights. Pickable, that's what I do, pickable. Yeah, no, but I'm saying there's so many new, two real good ways to get information and take control of your own life on your own and put that time back in your pocket, both during the day and longevity, that it really is an empowering moment for people.

40:18And at the same time, if you're caught up in the wrong products and in the wrong algorithm and the wrong state of mind, it's never been easier to get distracted and mad. Right. We see this all day, every day, because that's what selling clicks. And so people need to take control of this free time that they were given and put their 10 ,000 hours. It's never been easier to put your 10 ,000 hours in to something, but it's also never been easier to waste 10 ,000 hours. So, again, these are just freedoms that we've been handed to that we're not we're not really taking them as freedoms. And it's really, I think it's up to me as a parent, like our kids grew up so much faster, you know, even though there was no war because of the internet.

41:08And what we're learning is they grew up faster, but they also got off course. And if you don't step in, so these kids need mentoring, you know, and then COVID came along and these kids aren't getting mentoring at really that university era between 2020 and 2021. 23, they lost serious amount of time at a very key age. So, so, so there's boomerang effect and there's a lot of 25 to 35 year old kids that really need to still get mentored. And so there's that little weirdness going on in the economy too. And so, you know, there's, it's not like it's all, it's all bubbles and balloons. There's a lot of trouble out there, but it wasn't like they had to go through trench warfare like world war.

41:55Exactly. Yeah. So it's like we've got to, but you also can't be mean to these kids and say, oh, you didn't have to go to trench warfare. They had COVID. COVID was at a young age like that. That was their version digital trench warfare. Misinformation and like, you know, so they got fucked over. Yep. And parents have got to step back in here because you're not going to get it from the government and you're not going to get it from China. And you're only going to open yourself up to misinformation. information so you really got to surround yourself with people and and mentors that and groups that really add value to your life and you got to tune out more than you've ever had to tune out which is a great saying that someone said to me is there's no such thing as information overload only filter failure oh and so in a world where overload is not going to solve itself you're only going to get more more more you know with ai you have to have good filters and you know I don't know what to tell people.

42:54That's it. Like you have to filter things. Everybody every day is trying to make it so that your filtering isn't good. I mean, you look at Instagram. I never buy anything on Instagram, but you know what? Correct. That's what I'm saying. Like it's no longer the product that they originally shared with us. So get rid of it. It's a lie. I'll tell you a quick story. I have a pickleball elbow, tennis elbow. It really gets very severe, very, very severe, like problematic. Not just your normal problematic. Like I'm on the edge of, do I have one more thing to do And then I have to go to surgery. But meanwhile, now, all of a sudden, everything on Instagram is curing your pickleball elbow.

43:28And I found this one. I'm like, all right, I'll buy. You know, I bought this like 10s unit that was this portable battery, whatever, and whatever it cost and whatever. But it just came in a couple of days ago. But the point is that they're very good at all that. Let me switch gears with you. I want to ask you something and ask this question. I'm going to give you mine and then I want to hear yours. is there a trend or buzzword in finance that you think is totally overhyped? Mine is a, maybe it's not a trend. I guess it's a trend at this point. It's a trend of open AI committing hundreds of billions of dollars over 10 years or so when they're losing billions annually and they have no idea what this company is really going to be in the future.

44:15And you're quite into what's your, That's my overhyped issue that really is like a, it's starting to piss me off and bother me. Again, if it's starting to piss you off and bother you, that's a signal that like you are right, but you're also overthinking it. It shouldn't piss you off. The signal was early and it's already correcting itself. Google is probably going to retain the throne, right? I think people just need to understand one thing. Eventually in the stock market, you have to flip a switch and make money, right? Eventually, like especially when rates aren't zero. So eventually OpenAI has to charge, right?

45:01Or has to sell ads. And if you charge for a product, your customer base that was 100 million becomes 2 million or 5 million or maximum 10 million. You have this incredible product that needs like vaping. Okay, but OpenAI isn't vaping. It's a beautiful reimagining of how you consume information. It's a magic trick, and it's a beautiful magic trick for people that struggled with writing or reading or comprehension, right? And the 10 blue links that my son would stare at as a non-reader, you know, curious person, but as a non-reader, looking at 10 blue links on Google is not getting an answer. That's getting anxiety.

45:46So the magic trick for my son and people like him that can go to OpenAI and just get the answer they want, whether it's true or not, forgetting that argument. For a reasonable kid that can go read and get a well-thought-through answer without clicking links, genius. But here's where OpenAI falls apart. And believe me, I know this because I talked to the team and they're not. Let's give you the simplest example of where OpenAI falls apart for me or where it becomes an advertising business. Let's look at Mark Cuban, one of the best entrepreneurs of our time. He has a product called Cost Plus Drugs, right?

46:19And he's the best entrepreneur. He knows what he's doing. He'd fight with anybody on the internet. He can take the arrows in the back. He started companies. He's a billionaire. He can go spend the money. And his idea is, fuck these drug deliveries, not the pharmaceutical, but whatever the intermediaries are. Like the Express Grips and all those guys, the PBMs. Okay. He goes, screw those guys. I'm just going to market up 10%, right? Right. And anything that's off patent is cost plus. Now, he's got to go market that site. But what a better place to market that site than supposedly a truth-telling AI products.

46:58Meaning, if you're going to search, hey, where do I get this drug off patent? Shouldn't the first answer from a system that's supposedly, you know, curating the web for you? Cost plus drugs. Right. Right. But right there, not having cost plus drugs in any of those searches telling you where OpenAI is going to go. They're going to be in an ad-based pay-to-play model. Yeah. And so in that world, Google still wins. That's the way I'm playing that bet. Now, OpenAI has a huge advantage. It's a great product. My son loves the UI. My wife likes the UI. So, you know, 20-year-olds are using it and 80-year-olds are using it.

47:40So that's why it's being talked about every day. You got a product that in two years, 700 million people are using and a huge age disparity, right? Across four generations, right? So that's why it's worth what it's worth. But the real trick comes is how you monetize that because eventually you got to pay for all this. And so that's what's frustrating you. That's what's making everybody curious. The good news here is, again, you're right. I'm right. It doesn't matter who's right. What their true understanding of what you have to understand is we all win. Because this time the company is paying for it or paying for it with their cash.

48:23Right. So NVIDIA, Oracle, they have cash for now. Facebook, Google, their money is good. So NVIDIA is someone's everybody's going to get paid. The only people that may not get paid by this are the customers that open AI may not be able to pay one day. So it is a developing problem, but it's only just starting to develop now because cash has been good so far. Unlike 1999 when Cisco's customers really couldn't pay after about two months and the bubble came crashing down. So I think history is rhyming, but it's not exactly like the 1999 bubble. But I am a skeptical like you, and I'm just avoiding AI other than, you know, Google.

49:10I will tell you that from a user standpoint now, I use a couple different ones. I use actually the mobile. Claude's great, too. Claude's great. I use the, I use, I use open, you're probably not going to like this, but I use Copilot, Microsoft's. Of course you do. You're old. Look at you. Yeah, well, of course. Well, if AOL had one, I'd use that one, right? Right? So, so, but it was interesting. I was in Italy. I was in this town called Orvieto and I was in front of the Duomo and I'm like, oh man, I wish I was, seriously, this is not, this has happened last week. I'm looking, I'm going, oh, I wonder what, I wish I had a guy telling me what this, I'm like, wait a second.

49:48So I picked up my phone. I put on the microphone. I said, I am standing in front of the Duomo and Orvieto, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Tell me about the edifice. Tell me about how it was built. Tell me about what I'm looking at. It was unbelievable. It's unbelievable. Unbelievable. It's a magic trick. We are talking about a magic trick. And what I said, stop worrying about, yes, there is going to be a crash. But again, I think the crash will be eaten by different people this time, right? Because the cash is in the system. And in 1999, that cash went to Porsches and all the stupid stuff. And in the Zert bubble, we went to apps and all this stupid stuff.

50:31But right now, as much as I hate leadership around the world and how stupid it is, I'm feeling a self-correction coming from just tech, from good spend, like defense, space, robotics. There's enough good investing going on combined with the stupid investing. that I feel pretty optimistic. Now, it's up to you to not make stupid investments. And like we just talked about for the first hour, the easiest way to do that is to direct index or do dollar cost average. But I also would say it's never been a better time to be an independent thinking stock picking investor if you want to do it, because there's just so much dispersion in the system because you can go do the work yourself from anywhere in the world.

51:29I want to close on one thing because you're a forward-thinking guy. I've known that since I've known you how many years, 20-something years I've known you when we were both young at 40.

51:41Tokenization of stocks. I'm still having a little bit of a hard time wrapping my head around this, maybe because back to I'm an old guy, supposedly. but is this something that you see as anything or, and what is it that I need to be aware of? I'd say nothing. I'd say some things like are exciting, like NFTs, they're exciting to the people playing it because it's so interesting and it's so doable, but the world doesn't need it quite yet, right? Like buying a stock on Robinhood, you can't improve it for me, right? Like, unless you wanted to say, oh, Citadel, if they wanted to come on and say Citadel sucks and we're embarrassed that we ever did business with Citadel and the only way to get around Citadel people is if we tokenize.

52:33Like, you know, the amount of like heavy lifting Robin Hood would have to do to do that. Now, at the same time, Vlad's on TV every minute right now saying tokenization's everything. You know, God bless. But like, he has a much longer term horizon than you need to have. And right now it ain't broke. But if you live in Europe, systems, you know, tokenization makes a little more sense. Or if you live in, you know, it's kind of like landlines versus, you know, I'm on Coronado and it's gross that like the most beautiful island in America and Navy has land, you know, power cables everywhere versus not.

53:14But so we live in a world where the landlines still pretty much work. And you've got the devil we know with Citadel, et cetera, and Goldman. And so I'm like not even thinking about tokenization. Now, I have some tokenization investments because I own certain companies that are involved in that space. But my expectations are those are startups and they could take 10 years. And look at StockTwits. It's like I thought in 2007 and 2008 when I started it that real time was the only thing that mattered. And because there was an AI and it was so new. And it turns out it was the only thing that mattered, but you had to have the one.

54:00It was only Twitter. Like you had to have the one main network or you weren't real time, right? You needed scale. And now StockTwitch is relevant in a post real time world. And the key was just surviving. So I would say to people investing in tokenization, it's going to take longer than you think. So you better not run out of money. And for the average investor, disregard it. And if you really want to invest in tokenization, you can buy Coinbase on a dip or Robinhood on a dip because that's what they say they're working on. But in terms of like getting distracted by it, absolutely not. I don't feel like the government, as bad as, yes, and I'm friends with a lot of securities attorneys.

54:41We talk about just what you just asked me all the time. And the good securities attorney will tell you that we really, all we've done is gone from an SEC, whatever the idiot's name was in charge, who was just kicking the can down the road and like being very like. Oh, Gensler? Gensler. Yeah, Gansler. He was very obscure and like it was terrible because he just didn't give you any signal or mixed signal. And we've only gone to a thing that's like not giving you mixed signals, but they haven't really greenlit it much. Right. And so I don't think tokenization has any real decisions there. I think the real thing is prediction markets.

55:23I think the greatest thing to come along since Robinhood is prediction markets. And I wish I could tell you I was early into that thing, but I wasn't. I'm an investor a small amount personally in poly markets, so I'm talking my book. But the idea that my son, who will never trade, and I don't want him to trade. I want him to do what he loves to do. Like, why, you know, why learn a language you're not interested in? You know, my son will say, Dad, you're doing a great job. Why do I want to learn the market? So in a world where you don't, you can just index. In a world where my son can learn trading without thinking he's learning trading.

56:10So with a prediction market, the way I see the world going versus tokenization, and they do eventually merge. in a prediction market, I can bet on Tesla beating earnings. The hardest part about saying a stock's going to beat earnings is predicting the direction of the stock. So you have to get two things right in your prediction. The idea that I could unbundle that and let people learn that, you know, I love Tesla. I think they're going to ship a lot of fucking cars this quarter. And Elon's sandbagging it. The fact that he can handicap it that way and just make a bet on Tesla beating is pretty cool.

56:50And so I think, you know, when options and futures came around in the 80s, you know, I still don't trade options and futures. And I've been doing this forever because I don't really like the idea of time value of money and leverage. And so I've never traded options. And I know that makes sense for a sophisticated investor because you're tying up less capital, but I just don't do it. But in a world where prediction markets make sense to me on day one, that's exciting. And in a world where I've never, Andrew, I'm telling you this as a signal here, I've never made a bet. I'm six years old. I think betting's stupid, but I think it can be fun.

57:25But I think it's stupid. I think DraftKings is stupid. I love the people. Appreciate all the work they've done. I don't think it's good for society, but I don't begrudge anybody. It's better than fucking semi-automatic weapons in many ways and bullets at Walmart. So I don't want to get into that argument. But, like, come on. parlays and like kids betting and like everything's wrong with it okay but god bless the idea that this can be broken out further and taught as a language and the secondary effects of prediction markets is that news will be much more digestible and real where we won't have to go to twitter for news you'll just be able to go look at the stats um i think that's that's a huge secondary other order effect of prediction markets.

58:16So this, again, I call it the degenerate economy. It's just, that's the theme that makes the most sense to me. And it's the theme that is kids are going to have more time. And what are they going to do with that time? They're not going to get their third gig and their fourth gig. They may start a little side hustle and they may have like a YouTube channel and they may do this and they become a middleman and make an honest living and doing, you know, small business, but they need, they're going to need to invest to keep up with inflation and prices. Right. And so the sooner they learn to do that, the better.

58:53And, and that's the world we're heading into. So the more you can get your kids down this path of, of investing and putting their money to work and making good decisions, um, the better. And I don't like the idea of doing that by betting on a sports game. I like the idea of that by getting in a group, doing the work, and getting good at predictions and reading the market. So I'm super bullish on that part of the world. But at the same time, I'm also very much rooting, as much as I hate the idea of Silicon Valley merging with the White House, because I don't trust Silicon Valley. I mean, I don't trust the White House, but I definitely don't trust Silicon Valley.

59:29And as we've seen with Instagram, and as we've seen with all these products that like, are free, but they're not really free, is you can have both going on. Like, I don't trust them, but I do like the idea of, like, the investments that they're making. I'm not saying I like the style, and I'm not saying I think they're all going to work, but I like the idea of the government protecting me and investing in things that will protect us, whether it's an iron. Like, I want Israel's Iron Dome in America. Yeah. I want it. I think it worked for Israel. I think if they're getting inter-ballistic missiles sent from Iran, the ocean means nothing.

1:00:11So the faster we can put New York and San Francisco and Phoenix and big cities and protect people with a dome, I'm all for that. Yeah, I would agree. So if Silicon Valley can pull that off with the White House, I'll put up with Peter Thiel. I hear you. I mean, there is that fine line, though. We've got to be careful about, I mean, going back to - You can't have it all. We're at a high-risk situation here. But I'm hoping that the smart people are realizing by watching the drone attacks and by watching what happened in Israel and the hand-to-hand combat war and tunnel war that we're taking the lessons from that and are going to apply them to our borders.

1:00:57Perfect. Right. Because if if if borders mean nothing, then we better be able to protect ourselves from the sky. Said well. And we're going to close it on that. Howard Lindzen, always a pleasure having you on board. Make sure I have all the links to where people can find you, find your stuff and stock twits and all the good things out there that you have created and shepherded. And not only that, that you will continue to over your lifetime. Appreciate you. Thanks, Andrew. Great to see you. Thanks. And that's going to wrap it up for this episode of the Disciplined Investor Podcast. Please stay tuned for next week.

1:01:34We have, oh, what do we have coming on? Manuel Bled, Ross Gerber in a couple of weeks. We have Danielle DiMartino Booth, the Fed Insider, going to talk to us about what's going on, maybe her prediction on who actually will be the Fed chair, the pick for the Fed chair, and what does that mean. Talk to you soon. Go over to DisciplineInvestor.com and see all that we have to offer, find out more about what we do for our clients, et cetera. And thank you for joining me this week. Every week, I'll see you again next week.

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