TDI Podcast: Stock Market Maestros (#968)

12 Apr 2026 · 1 h 8 min · 30 chapters

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In short

The episode uses a geopolitical “whiplash” market moment (ceasefire headlines tied to Iran and oil/volatility swings) to argue that investors are often trading headlines and timing rather than fundamentals. It then pivots to behavioral research on how top investors actually win—less about stock-picking hit rates and more about managing winners vs. losers, decision timing, and disciplined process.

Guests (who)

Claire Flynn Levy, CEO and founder of Essentia Analytics. Background: previously a fund manager for 10 years (active equity and hedge); Essentia uses decision-attribution analytics to identify investment skills and biases for equity fund managers and allocators. She is author of Stock Market Maestros.

Key claims

  • Even best managers have median hit rates around 49%; skill shows up in payoff ratio and behavior, not just accuracy.
  • “Alpha decay” analysis can reveal when a thesis stops generating incremental excess return.
  • Behavioral tribes: connoisseurs (run winners), assassins (cut losers), hunters (double down at the right moment); plus Essentia’s “lumberjacks” category.
  • Discipline and systems reduce emotional errors (e.g., fear-driven decisions when prices fall).

Notable examples

  • Just Eat (Gorm Thomason): success came from not letting losers run.
  • Carvana and other holdings: the system overrode the host’s instinct; later profits then a rollover validated the process.
  • Bank of Ireland chart (2019–2024): scaling down/up and re-engaging after exits can matter.
  • Annie Duke is referenced for “Quit”/folding-loser parallels to investing.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Market Overview and Major Events

1:25 to 2:55

An analysis of recent market movements and geopolitical influences.

“Well, we have kind of a ceasefire, depending on who you ask.”

Oil Market Dynamics and Price Fluctuations

2:55 to 4:28

Understanding the recent drastic changes in oil prices and their implications.

“We'll be happy to look at your portfolio.”

Government Influence on Markets

4:28 to 6:44

Discussing the impact of government announcements on market movements.

“WTI, West Texas Intermediate, cratered like, I guess it was about 16 % at one of the low points.”

Behavioral Finance and Market Psychology

6:44 to 12:20

Insights into behavioral finance and how it affects trading decisions.

“And in public, they're saying, you know what?”

Early Career and Unique Background

16:45 to 17:36

Discover Claire's early career starting in the mailroom and her journey into finance.

“You've been on since, first time on was in 2019, we recently discovered.”

Gift Wrapping and Personal Insights

17:36 to 20:06

Claire shares her experiences with gift wrapping and personal habits.

“You started your financial career, as is told, and is out there, I think, or maybe not as well known, in the mailroom of Gabelli.”

Myths About Stock Picking

20:06 to 21:56

Exploring the myths surrounding stock picking and investor behavior.

“You did a – you have done an incredible amount of research into the habits of investors.”

Behavioral Insights in Investing

21:56 to 24:46

Discussing how skilled investors behave when winning or losing.

“That's what we've talked before and we've talked about this, but I'm still like a little bit squishy on this.”

Analyzing Investor Performance

24:46 to 27:19

Learn how to analyze the performance of investments and identify patterns.

“because your one data point can't be, well, the price went down, so therefore I'm wrong.”

Investing Strategies and Perspectives

27:19 to 28:05

Examining different investing strategies through Claire's research.

“Like, does it all happen in the beginning and then not a lot after that?”
Show all 30 chapters

The Nature of Investment Strategies

28:05 to 28:50

Understanding different investor mindsets and their strategies over time.

“It depends on what your strategy is and how long term of an investor you are.”

Behavioral Tribes in Investing

28:51 to 30:00

Exploring how different investor behaviors affect decision-making and success.

“This is, uh, your coauthor of the book, who is Lee Freeman Shore, wrote a book called The Art of Execution.”

Lessons from Lee Freeman-Shore's Insights

30:01 to 31:30

Key lessons learned from analyzing top fund managers and their decision-making.

“Well, so Lee's first book was, as you say, The Art of Execution.”

Understanding Winning and Losing Behaviors

31:31 to 33:19

How to effectively manage winning positions and cut losses in investing.

“on average were they more right than they were wrong when they were wrong so that that was about How do you behave when you're winning?”

New Investment Behavior Types: The Lumberjacks

33:20 to 34:50

Introducing a new investor type and the rationale behind their behavior patterns.

“that it hits a point i'm out i'm done move on just don't look don't look back don't look back you're done um the hunter is somebody who's actually going to double up they'll the price might be falling, it's not working.”

Behavioral Alpha Score and Decision Making

34:51 to 37:00

Analyzing decision-making processes to identify what adds value in investing.

“We want you to share your daily holdings data so that we can analyze it.”

Impact of Streaks on Trading Behavior

37:01 to 39:38

Exploring how winning and losing streaks influence trading decisions and outcomes.

“Because the point isn't to tell you how bad you are at everything.”

Annie Duke's Influence on Trading Decisions

39:39 to 40:56

Insights from Annie Duke on decision-making and the importance of knowing when to fold.

“I need to take control of my really bad trading right now and continue doing it.”

Distinguishing Wizards from Maestros

40:57 to 42:01

Understanding the differences between stock market wizards and maestros.

“But one of the people you have on your book that has put a little note on here, and I guess you know, is Annie Duke.”

Understanding Cutting Losers in Investing

42:01 to 42:41

Learn why cutting losers is a critical investment skill and how it's similar to poker.

“Yeah, but she's written some really good stuff.”

Distinguishing Wizards from Maestros

42:41 to 45:24

Explore the key differences between stock market wizards and maestros.

“that you're trying to make a differentiation and a distinction between stock market wizards and stock market maestros?”

The Importance of Discipline in Investing

45:24 to 46:07

Discover why discipline is essential for successful investing and how to cultivate it.

“And they didn't all read, they didn't all study economics or finance or go to Wharton or, you know, any of that.”

Emotional Decision-Making in Investing

46:07 to 48:54

Understand how emotional responses can impact investment decisions and the value of a systematic approach.

“By the way, we have part of our one of our portfolio strategies that is this quantitative base, right?”

Evaluating Investment Performance and Skill

48:54 to 53:09

Learn how to assess investment managers' skills beyond just performance metrics.

“Because if they didn't, it would be a lot lower because he'd be spooked out.”

Leveraging Daily Data for Investment Insights

53:09 to 57:22

Explore the benefits of using daily data for better investment decision-making and analysis.

“First, you said and you've discussed that recent performance is often an extremely poor proxy for skill because it doesn't accurately attribute the outcome to specific decisions.”

The Importance of Data for Smaller Funds

57:22 to 58:48

Learn how smaller funds can utilize basic data for enhanced analysis and decision-making.

“I did, you know, uh, like a week after the book came out, I got a LinkedIn request from somebody who said, I've just been reading your book.”

Inspirational Stories from Investment Leaders

58:48 to 1:00:48

Hear about the inspiring journey of Josh Goldberg and the perseverance of investment leaders.

“and start scraping that email because you could make a data file, I bet, by doing that.”

Lessons on Discipline in Investing

1:00:48 to 1:02:05

Understand the critical role of discipline in becoming a successful investor.

“is continuously improving and that is his nature.”

Challenges in the Publishing Industry

1:02:05 to 1:02:54

Explore the complexities of publishing a book and the experience of narrating your own work.

“Like, look, you know, I'm like, you know what?”

Reflections on the Podcast and the Book

1:02:54 to 1:04:24

Reflect on the insights shared during the podcast and the impact of the discussed book.

“So I could have probably got away with reading.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00This episode is sponsored by Interactive Brokers. Where could quantum computing take your portfolio? Investment themes from Interactive Brokers, well, they help you find out. Start with a trend like quantum computing or clean energy and instantly see which companies are most connected based on revenue and strategic focus and product relevance. You can explore competitors, global exposure, and business relationships across more than 500 themes. Built on AI-powered insights from reflexivity, investment themes turns complexity into clarity and helps you move from trend to trade faster. Available now across IBKR desktop, mobile, and trader workstation.

0:44The best informed investors choose Interactive Brokers. Remember SIPC. Check it out right now at IBKR.com slash themes. The Disciplined Investor is all about you, your money, and the markets. Sit back and get ready for this edition of The Disciplined Investor Podcast.

1:07Clare Flynn Levy:This episode of The Disciplined Investor is sponsored by Horowitz & Company. If you're looking for a portfolio manager, look no further. Horowitz & Company, from seed through harvest, cultivating financial success.

1:25Well, we have kind of a ceasefire, depending on who you ask. The Fed's still thinking of a rate cut this year. The best day for the market since April 2025. Worst day for oil in six years. Government's heavy hand is all over it. And we're talking stock market maestros with our guest, Claire Flynn Levy, CEO of Essentia Analytics. All this and much more on episode number 968 of the Disciplined Investor Podcast.

2:04And welcome to the crazy place we know affectionately and call it Wall Street, where the tide turns on a dime these days, doesn't it? I mean, that can often turn a fortune into ruin and ruin into a fortune in more than, less than, I should say, a blink of the eye. And welcome to the Horowitz Company Studios. Here is where we produce both the Disciplined Investor Podcast and DH Unplugged. And I am Andrew Horowitz, the founder of Horowitz Company, which is an investment advisory firm for people just like you. So if you're looking for a little help in this madness of what is going on right now and a little bit help meandering, wandering and making sure you're set straight, give us a call, find us, go to the website, thedisciplinedinvestor.com, drop me a line.

2:55We'll be happy to look at your portfolio. It is that time of the year for, you know, when we start doing a little spring cleaning, right? And no better time to a spring cleaning than on your portfolio. By the way, if you are listening in Europe, I don't know if you know this, but in Europe, you are not allowed to trade U.S.-based mutual funds. You're not allowed to trade U.S.-based ETFs. The good news is we can actually do some of that for you. So if you're in the U.K. or in the Eurozone, European Union, we can actually manage your money using our global allocations and our managed growth strategy.

3:32So something to consider, whereas you can get access to the ETFs in the U.S. that you can't get access to on your own. Impossible to do so. Something that I thought I'd let you know and let you in on. So last Wednesday, what was that, April 8th, the markets delivered one of those classic geopolitical whiplash moments, right? where it was like, oh, you know, we all of a sudden have a ceasefire. Because remember the night before we had something happened. The Dow surged, we'll get to that, Dow surged 1 ,300 points, closing up almost 3 % on the day. The S &P 500 jumped more than 2.5%. The NASDAQ moved up about 3%.

4:21At the same time, the VIX, this is Wall Street's, the official fear gauge plunged, dropped about 20 % as this panic pricing basically evaporated overnight. Oil took the opposite route. WTI, West Texas Intermediate, cratered like, I guess it was about 16 % at one of the low points. That was the biggest one-day drop since 2020. And dare I say, we know what happened then when, in fact, oil went negative for a little while there. Brent oil, interestingly enough, also fell about a similar amount. But interesting divergence of pricing where Brent is actually less money than WTI, something we haven't seen in a long time.

5:12The problem is that the futures markets are predicting a lower value than the present day. I want to buy right now oil market. The spot price of what you get for oil right now, somewhere in the 120 to 130 range for Brent in Asia and other markets outside of the United States. And I think what's happening right now is that that is pushing up WTI as well. We had a moment that I think WTI fell below, I think it fell below 95, 94. It was at 92 at one point. Why? Well, the spark that ignited all this was President Trump announcing that there's now this two-week ceasefire with Iran. And this came in just, I don't know, minutes, maybe an hour before his own deadline.

6:05The deadline that said we were going to basically incinerate an entire civilization. Now this also was coming with an understanding that would be a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. I'll tell you what we're calling this, by the way. This happened on Tuesday. This is a different kind of Taco Tuesday trade. Taco, T-A-C-O, formerly known as Trump always chickens out. This one is Trump announces a ceasefire option. taco we got a ceasefire option here now i don't know who is agreeing to all this we saw the pakistanians come in and beg for this to happen who knows if we were begging the pakistanians to do this i don't know who knows the truth is somewhere between here and there right now what we're hearing from the iranians in supposedly they say things in different in private in public because in private they're saying they want to do a deal supposedly of course we don't know that from anyone but one source.

7:08And in public, they're saying, you know what? You broke one of three of the 10 already. We're not interested. And you did this with Lebanon. We're not interested. We're not letting anybody through the Straits of Hormuz. But somehow, magically, markets are elated. We've seen this movie before. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We've seen this before. We've seen these similar sharp reversals play out during the earlier tariff pauses. Tariff on, tariff off. Miyagi say, wax on, wax off. Tariff on, tariff off. We're on, we're off. Pause. We're going to obliterate. Pause. We're going to do this. Pause.

7:53It works, it seems. Markets get all excited. You know why? Because a lot of shorts get wrong-footed, just like the longs get wrong-footed. So things move tremendously. The heavy hand and the fingerprints that are all over this by the government enacting various different modes throughout is very tough on markets. Takes a toll on investor confidence.

8:22Now when the tension is building and the threats are looming and oil premiums spike on sudden supply fears, and equities get all crazy and upset and wobbly and investors are all upset, and then we see this last minute de-escalation, and then a flipping of the script that triggers this huge rally.

8:48because when a single government announcement can swing the Dow by over a thousand points and crush oil in hours, it clearly highlights this heavy hand. Some people call it the invisible hand. It's not invisible. It's not invisible by a long shot. It is clear as anything that you could see that how impactful the government can be when it comes to markets. This policy that dominates pretty much everything throughout the day because the 24-hour news cycle is now like a 15-minute news cycle. It's unverifiable, but information comes out from governments, including our own, at such a breakneck speed that it's impossible for anybody to keep up.

9:40You watch the algos grab this well before the news really hits the media. And what we're seeing, I think, right now is less of a fundamentally driven market and more like investors trading the timing, the tonality, and clearly the headlines that are coming out of Washington. and with these well-timed trades ahead of these moves, we're starting to wonder about questioning about influence and undue influence in the markets, and when it crosses into something closer to, dare I say, manipulation, this has been a theme that is now coming out. As a matter of fact, there's some lawsuits and there's some Congress that are doing some looking into some of this, and it would seem likely that some of what we've seen the potential for us to find out is actually a lot better than was expected.

10:50Each future contract has a footprint, a fingerprint, an ID of what and who traded. We should be able to get this. But right now, where we are with all this is we still don't know. We have a two-week pause. We don't, you know, over the weekend, they said that who knows, because we haven't gotten all the information, but over the weekend was the time period that was going to get this going. And, you know, we look back on the last couple of days and we see, well, yeah, I mean, something's going on, but who knows what? We don't know if it's genuine or just maybe another temporary pause. with plenty of these unresolved issues that are still on the table.

11:35And Iran already signaling potential pullbacks to what they had, well, nobody's agreed to anything, but what's in some of this ceasefire and how fragile the ceasefire is. We can see fresh spikes in the VIX. Another round of oil whiplashing if tensions flare again. It's a reminder how quickly sentiment can shift when government action keeps on rewriting the narrative. That's exactly what's going on. So I think with that, it's important to understand there's a big psychological impact. And the question is how to stay ahead of this and how to master this and how to make sure that you don't fall prey to getting whipsawed, not from a trading standpoint, but from an investing standpoint.

12:25And I think we're going to do that today because we have a great guest. We have a great guest coming on. And she does a lot of work in the area of, I would say, behavioral finance to a degree, studying. Studying great traders. Actually, studying good and bad traders. Okay, if you read her work, you know that what has happened is that she has done a great deal of work in analyzing the trading and the process utilized, helping investors, I mean institutional investors, understand more about themselves, what they do, how they're doing it, and how they can better themselves. where they make mistakes and how they can stop doing so, where they do have great outputs and working that angle to refine that.

13:23Hone in on exactly what it is that made it for this investment to go well and that one not. to train, retrain, teach, to extract the information about what was the mood, the mode, the moment, the backdrop that made that successful of an investment idea, an allocation, a portfolio transition, and what didn't. Her name is Claire Flynn Levy. We've had her on before. And she's really great. But before we go any further and I introduce her, and I have her book right in front of me, by the way, and we'll talk about that. Let's take a moment and let's talk about interactive brokers, shall we? Because interactive brokers, or IBKR as we call them, has key competitive advantages for sophisticated investors just like you.

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15:16Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC. Again, it's IBKR.com slash compare. All right, so Claire Flynn Levy, she is the founder and CEO of Essentia Analytics, which is a fintech firm that uses decision attribution analytics to help both equity fund managers and allocators of capital to identify investment skills and biases and continuously improve their decision-making process. They lead the field in behavioral analytics and work with many of the world's largest investment managers. And prior to founding Essentia, she spent 10 years as a fund manager, both active equity and as hedge. So that's great.

16:02She's also author of the book that I have in front of me, Stock Market Maestros, the winning habits, strategies, and mindsets of the world's best investors. This just came out, and this is a great book. It has, you know, chapters on how to handle winners. Each, there's a number of specific masters, maestros, that she identified and look at their behavioral alpha scores, their hit ratios, their payoff ratios, and takeaways from each of them looking at what has happened. But let's bring her right on. Claire Flynn Levy, how are you? I'm fine. How are you? It's been a while. Last time you were on was 2022.

16:51You've been on since, first time on was in 2019, we recently discovered. So thanks for coming back. Well, it is a pleasure to be here. A lot has happened since 2019, hasn't it? It's a wonderful book. I'm rubbing the cover right now. It has one of those covers. You just want to, it's one of those like comfort covers. That's funny because I've been doing that too. but I thought it was just me. No, there's some certain books that you just like kind of put under your palm of your hand and you just like, it just feels good. The covers, that's a great thing. So the stock market maestro is the winning habits, strategies, and mindsets of the world of best investors.

17:27But we're going to start out a little bit differently. I want to start out finding more about you because what I've learned, I want to find out something unique about you. This is kind of a thing we've been doing with the show recently. You started your financial career, as is told, and is out there, I think, or maybe not as well known, in the mailroom of Gabelli. That's true. That's true. It is not well known, but I did. You were in college. Yep. Tell me a little bit before that. You had jobs as you were growing up, maybe in high school? Yeah. Yeah. I went to boarding school. So in high school, I had jobs at like break time.

18:09I worked first. I worked in the local bookstore, gift wrapping. That was my first job. And then in their book ordering service. And then I did get interested in economics at in high school. I mean, this is obviously another time. So kids didn't have the opportunity to really explore that kind of interest at this in the same way that they can today when I was in high school. But I did, you know, I did what reading of Forbes magazine and other other Wall Street Journal type things that I could do. And I ended up getting in a summer job in, as you say, in the mailroom, filling, putting mutual fund prospectuses in envelopes at Gabelli Funds.

18:54Wow, that that's pretty cool. I mean, the thing is that, you know, with regard to the idea that you got interested so early in economics. But I'm more curious about one more thing. To this day, can you wrap like a banshee? Can you do those corners really nicely on gifts and things like that, what you learned in the bookstore? I actually can, but the question is, do I? I think I do a calculation about return on energy expended and decide like, eh, this person's not even going to notice. If I think they're going to notice, I can pull out the big guns. My wife is like very much in the groove of when you go somewhere and you bring something, it has to be wrapped.

19:38If you bring wine, you cannot bring wine to somebody's house in just a bottle. It has to go in a gift bag with tissue and a card. It has to. There's a whole industry of gift bags that relies entirely on that belief. Yeah. And I mean, I'm kind of with her. I think maybe women have been trained to do this. Maybe. It's nice. But the thing is, I'm like, are you sure we're using the bag that they didn't give us when they came here? You know, I'm going to feel awkward about this. Let's talk about some things. You did a – you have done an incredible amount of research into the habits of investors. and there's a lot of myths out there in equity investing that it's all about stock picking or it's all about Princeton, B.

20:32Bauer and Hood. We look at the efficient frontiers and Markowitz and how 92 % of the portfolio's effective return based on the variability, blah, blah, blah, but you know all these things, right? So why is that a myth about this whole issue about stock picking and maybe even market relation statistics? Well, in the end, it turns out that most people don't get it right more than 50 % of the time when it comes to stock picking, if you're comparing that to buying an index fund. If you think about it in absolute return terms, sure, you can pick stocks that go up more than 50 % of the time, hopefully.

21:14But the question is, could you have just put your money in an index fund and got the same result? That's what that's the question that people are asking themselves who are running the big funds. And that's who I've been studying this whole time. So what we found is that even the very best fund managers have a median hit rate. That's like your batting average of forty nine percent, which means that actually that they don't make their money by getting it right more often than they get it wrong. at least not in terms of the stocks they're picking. What the research shows is that the way they differentiate and what makes an investor actually skilled beyond do they pick the right stocks is how do they behave when they're winning and how do they behave when they're losing.

22:00Can I stop you? How do you quantify that? That's what we've talked before and we've talked about this, but I'm still like a little bit squishy on this. I mean, the way that we do it at Essentia Analytics, which is my company, you know, I used to be a fund manager myself. So in trying to answer these questions, like how would you measure how I behave when I'm winning? I'm coming at it from the point of view of a fund manager. And I mean, the first thing with all of this sort of analysis is that there's not like one right answer that's the only right answer. So we end up looking at it in lots of different ways.

22:38But for that particular question, the way we found most effective is to say, OK, let's look at every trade you've ever done. Let's divide them into trades where you were increasing your exposure. So we do this for long only managers, but we also do it for long short. So, you know, the short side means that I'll speak in more generic terms, but you're increasing your exposure. And then you have trades where you were decreasing your exposure. And then we're going to categorize those trades by ones that you did when you were when the stock you were trading was already making you money and ones that you did when the stock you were trading was losing you money.

23:18So therefore, you can see, you know, how do you do when you've been adding to winners and how have you done when you've been adding to losers? And yeah, I mean, different people have different habits. It's not that there is one right way to do it, but in Stock Market Maestro is actually my new book. You can see there's a variety of different sort of attitudes towards it. But the key is understanding whether what you do works, because often people will buy losers. You know, they might have very high conviction about a stock and the price is falling. So they think I'll just average down. but actually you can end up blowing a huge hole in your P &L by doing that.

24:04For example, on page 138, I just happened to grab this right here. I couldn't have opened the book and thumbed to something more perfect than this, by the way, for this conversation. This is Gorm Thomason, and it's about Just Eat is on page 138 and how you wrote, although he built a success on a few major wins, he can't afford to let his losers run too, but he did on Just Eat, for example, right? Yeah. Well, he - Well, he got out at a good time at that, but he just wouldn't, he wouldn't, I should say this differently. He wouldn't let his losers run. That was my point. Yeah. I mean, it's all about recognizing when you're wrong.

24:45And that can be really hard to do because your one data point can't be, well, the price went down, so therefore I'm wrong. But when the price has been down for like some sustained period, it's not behaving the way that you thought it was going to be behaving. You might come up with explanations for it. But what often happens, particularly to people who have done a lot of research on a stock, is that they end up succumbing to the endowment effect where they're just so convinced that they know, you know, this thing is worth more than that. And it's only getting cheaper. So therefore, I'm not getting out.

25:21I'm, you know, I'm totally convinced about this stock. And then before you know it, you've given up all the money that it was once making you. And now you feel like an idiot. And that's happened to a lot of people recently in particularly who invest in like the quality

25:36Clare Flynn Levy:growth space where that's just stopped working. And it's taken people a really long time to sort of realize this is not necessarily a short term thing. It's not to say quality growth will never outperform again, but I think the role that momentum has to play is not a temporary thing. That's in my opinion. I think that's about the fact that there are a lot more computers involved in a lot more mathematical models driving things and they feed off like momentum is is a standard part of that sort of a system. So having to take that sort of price movement, shorter term price movements into account when you're not used to doing that because you've always been a very long term investor has been really hard for a lot of people.

26:24Well, and then it's interesting because there's also there's the whole thing of the concept that the efficient market in the market is correct. And those that are out there saying, no, at first, the market got it wrong. You know, a lot of people do that. Or I know better the valuation of where we are, let's say it's on the way up or it came down, it doesn't matter, is different than what the market is putting the value on. That's a lot of the edge that a lot of people think they can have with that, right? There's that. And I think that could cloud some people's view on reality sometimes. Yeah, well, I mean, one of the most powerful analyses that an investor can do, and you have to have held a number of different stocks to have enough data points to do this.

27:18But if you can go through and do what we call an alpha decay analysis, but look at how long, like over the life cycle of the typical stock that you own from the day that you bought it to the day that you sold the last share of it, how has the excess return typically unfolded? Like, does it all happen in the beginning and then not a lot after that? Or does it go down typically first? Like if you're a value investor, you may find that you're early and so things tend to go down and then they go up. What does that pattern look like? And once you can identify that pattern, you can say, OK, well, looking at my winners, I can see that they tend to run out of incremental alpha generating steam after, let's say, 18 months.

28:05It depends on what your strategy is and how long term of an investor you are. But there's a point where you can say, OK, so if something's going to work, it will definitely have worked by this point. If anything, it will probably be done working. Yeah. So actually I can, I can put a stake in the sand where I say, all right, I might be convinced even more convinced than I was 18 months ago. And yet I've done the analysis and I know that I am probably wrong. Yeah. And because I know I'm wrong half the time anyway. So the chances is I'm only 50, 50, right or wrong on the wrong, my, my, my thinking that I'm wrong.

28:45So then it's higher probability. The, um, let's talk about assassins, hunters, and connoisseurs. This is, uh, your coauthor of the book, who is Lee Freeman Shore, wrote a book called The Art of Execution. And he proposes that there are these distinct, I think he calls them behavioral tribes, right? Mm-hmm. That, that are, um, about how they handle winning and losing positions.

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29:17Clare Flynn Levy:Mm-hmm. And now you, by the way, you filtered, you took down all these different possible stock market maestros, which I also want to talk about the difference between Wizards and maestros in a moment. But just hold that thought. Hold that thought. Jack Swagger is a good friend. Uh, so we, we, we look at this and, and it, and it can be, um, broken down into various kinds of behaviors. Go through those three and how that shaped how you were actually working on, uh, creating the finalists for the Maestro book. Yeah. Well, so Lee's first book was, as you say, The Art of Execution. Great book. If you're interested in this stuff and you haven't already read it, I highly recommend it.

30:09That's how I met him in the first place. I read his book and I thought it was so aligned with the work I was doing that we needed to meet. And that was 10 years ago. So funny how that was the moral of the story is if you really like a book, why not reach out to the author? You don't know what will end up happening in 10 years. But in that book, he had he was running money. He was running a fund of funds and he had parceled out assets to a series of different managers who were all very highly decorated, you know, award winning managers. And and he this is, you know, a long time ago now. But even back then, he did have access to their daily holdings data because they wanted the mandate and the mandate would be run in a separately managed account anyway.

30:55So the data was contained. And so he had access to this data and he put together this best ideas fund where he said to each one of them, give me your 10 best ideas and I'll create a fund out of everybody's best ideas. and he learned a lot of lessons that I won't do I won't spoil here but one of the the main one was that what predicted whether the manager would make him money wasn't did they get it right more often than they got it wrong wasn't the hit rate it was about their payoff ratio when they were right on average were they more right than they were wrong when they were wrong so that that was about How do you behave when you're winning?

31:39Do you run those winners so that they get big? And how do you behave when you're losing? Do you cut those losers so that they stay small? That's how you get a good payoff ratio. And what he found was these three tribes of people. The connoisseur is the person who runs winners. You know, they've done all the work. They keep going. They have to have a strong stomach to be able to withstand, you know, drawdowns. But they don't give up. And as a result, they reap the benefits. then you have people who, when they're winning, what did he call the, there are people who take a, a quick profit. Obviously you don't want to be doing that.

32:29Like people who just take a quick profit when they're winning, that's not actually going to help you in the end because you need the winners to be bigger. Right. That's like, this is taking one sprinkle off the top of ice cream. Exactly. It's like, that's, it sounds like fun. It's like what my son does on his day trading app. Right, right, right.

32:48Clare Flynn Levy:I made$3. I made$3. I can tell you he's making more than$3 off of that one. It's not you. But then you have, when people are losing, the rabbits are the people who are just like frozen. They don't do anything. Or maybe they just like burrow further into the hole by adding, adding, adding in small increments on the way down. um where is so you don't want to be like that but what you do want to be uh is either a hunter or an assassin where an assassin is somebody who they just you know they cut that loser it's like that it hits a point i'm out i'm done move on just don't look don't look back don't look back you're done um the hunter is somebody who's actually going to double up they'll the price might be falling, it's not working.

33:39It's not that they then just keep adding all the way down, but they find their moment and they go big. And that's a very, you know, gutsy thing to do. So you don't find a lot of people who do that, but it is a very effective thing for, for those who do it. Yeah. If you get it right, surely, especially if you're going to double up at a lower, a much lower value. Yeah. But in the, in the stock market maestros book, we came up with a new tribe, which we call the Lumberjacks. And it was because we discovered this manager and goes back to like, how did we even choose these people? I run a software company that does analytics for fund managers.

34:18So I have access to a lot of fund managers data, but certainly not the entire universe of fund managers. So we went through Morningstar. We looked up everybody who's won any of the big awards in the last three years. Let's find all of those people and let's look them up, look up their, you know, typical performance stats, risk stats, all the stuff that like somebody who was, who had access to Morningstar and was doing like basic due diligence on a manager would do. And then we approached all of them and said, we're writing this book. We want you to share your daily holdings data so that we can analyze it.

34:56and we'll give you a report back and tell you everything it says. And if we choose you for the book, you get to be in a book. And if you don't, you get a free analysis. Right, you get it from Essentia. Right. Yeah, right. And, you know, which would normally cost a lot. So it's like, yeah, why not? And we did have, you know, a number of people who took us up on it. We also had people who didn't want to share their data or whatever, just didn't even open email. I'm sure you had strict NDAs and all that, right? Oh, for sure. And, you know, I deal with this sort of data at all times. So we have a very secure infrastructure and, you know, all the stuff is there.

35:36But I think there are certain asset management firms out there who are very behind in their thinking around use of data. And they were like, oh, we can possibly send it outside of our building. If you tell us how to do it. I'm pretty sure you're already doing that. Anyway, so we took the data of the people who gave it to us, and then we did our analysis and narrowed it down. And then we looked at them in terms of basic headline, hit rate, and payoff, but then also what we call behavioral alpha score, which is about looking at each of the seven different types of decision that they make. So picking decisions, entry timing decisions, scaling in decisions, sizing, size adjusting, scaling out and exit timing.

36:24Those are the seven that we that we think of when we think about, you know, the life of a stock in the portfolio. And and we look at all of, you know, all of those types of decisions that you've done and then compare them with what would have been achieved by chance. So the point is, are you adding value through making this type of decision? Or again, would an index fund do just as well? Or if it's a question of like a sizing decision, what if you just had an equally weighted portfolio, would that do just as well? Or if it's about timing, like, could you just throw a dart at a dartboard over a certain period and you would do just as well?

37:04Because the point isn't to tell you how bad you are at everything. is to say, here's what you're good at and let's free up your energy from this other stuff that you're doing that like a computer could do that and focus your energy on the stuff that you do that actually does add value. And people do add value, you know, particularly when they don't let behavioral bias then destroy the value that they've added, like is the case with alpha decay. So anyway, we do. It's fascinating. It's just amazing. what I find amazing is just once you look at this stuff you probably have a lot of these wow moments that was cool, that was a great trick because you can see it and you graph it and you show it but it's all historical so you can really get a step back look at what's happening there and get a really good picture of hey, and probably there have been times, I don't know this but you can either confirm it or tell me I'm just totally wrong oh, you know what look at these two months of this particular manager, something was going on there that wasn't right.

38:09Maybe he was spooked. Maybe he's having an argument with his dog. Who knows what the story is, but something is not right here. Right. And you can probably go back and say, Hey, what happened between December and January, 2022 or whatever? And I'll be like, well, it was a bad time for me on this. And you can say, you know, maybe you shouldn't be trading during times of excess stress or, you know, whatever. Or when you just had a baby and you're not sleeping properly because there's lots of science that says don't make decisions when you're under slept. I shouldn't make any. I don't think I should make any decisions ever then.

38:44We did an interesting research report. This is a while ago now, but looking at winning and losing streaks. And does that cause you because people, when they've been having a good run of it, you know, do they get lazy? Do they do they get slap happy? Like what happens? Do they end up trading more, less, better, worse? And what we found, if I remember correctly, is that about a third of the managers we analyzed showed some kind of pattern around that when they were in a winning or a losing streak. And it was typically that when they were losing, they would start trading more and in bigger size and worse.

39:25Interesting. And when they were winning, they would just typically be trading less. that's interesting because that's that's opposite of sports isn't it so in sports like playing tennis for example when you're winning usually what happens you take more risk you know you've got the grove groove going and it's something happens and when you're losing you just get almost like you step back it's very it's very opposite yeah it's interesting i hadn't thought about that but it's true i mean there's this sort of the bias is called the illusion of of control where you think somehow that you need to be trading or you trade bigger.

40:01This is going to help. I need to take control of my really bad trading right now and continue doing it. Yeah. And that somehow you can like you, you are going to affect the market in some way. Yes. Yeah. But I mean, at the very least you can, you can just call it overconfidence because statistically, you know, If you don't think you have a better than 50 % chance of the trade making you money, why are you even doing that? Right. Right. So now we know that historically you haven't. That's good to know. But you better believe that this is one of the ones that's going to win or don't put the trade on at all.

40:39Yeah. Then it's about being able to weed out which are the ones where I thought I was going to win. I was wrong. Yeah, exactly. So this book is available on all sorts of places. It's hardcover. It's softcover. It's Kindle. It's Audible. Stock Market Mastermind. And I don't want to forget about getting back to Wizards and Maestros, the differential. But one of the people you have on your book that has put a little note on here, and I guess you know, is Annie Duke. Yeah, I'm a big Annie Duke fan. Annie Duke's awesome. I mean, you know, obviously Poker Champ turned, I think, didn't she get her PhD like more recently?

41:14Recently. She had done most of it and then had just not finished because I guess she was doing so well at poker. But then she came back and she finished it. I think she's got like$2.8 million or$3 million of poker winnings in her lifetime. And then she turned into doing a lot more behavioral type of work, which, of course, no limit hold 'em if you know the game, is not poker. It's behavioral primarily. Marrily. You could have the worst hands ever, never be dealt the card through four days worth of a poker tournament and still win the tournament. Which is just wild. Yeah. I mean, you don't get that so much in stock market investing.

41:58Well, you can't do that. You can't bluff the stock market. Yeah. So tell me. Yeah, but she's written some really good stuff. And in fact, I put out a blog post today about cutting losers and why is that so hard and what are things you can do to get better at that. And, you know, she wrote a book a few years ago called Quit, which is all about that as well. And that's one of the best skills in poker is knowing when to fold them and you're going to do it a lot. So it's all about making that call. Yep. Thank you, Kenny Rogers. So let's talk about wizard and maestros. You make a distinction, and I've seen this a couple of times from you, that there is a difference between a wizard and maestro.

42:39Do I, should I say that it's because that you're trying to make a differentiation and a distinction between stock market wizards and stock market maestros? Is that, or am I totally wrong? No? You know, I'm a big fan of the Jack Schwager books and the stock market wizard. When I first started out as a fund manager, I read all of that stuff. So I think these people are all good at investing, but the people who are wizards typically are there. These are more traders. They're shorter term. They're doing. I think that as both of them are holding a wand, but the wizard is zapping things with the wand and the maestro is conducting an orchestra and trying to keep everything in check.

43:28They're running a portfolio that needs to perform all together, whereas the wizard is doing like individual. trades and may have a very concentrated set of bets. So like an Ackman would be a wizard. Yeah. Potentially, right? Yeah. Exactly. And somebody like some of the key well-known fidelity managers of the past. Exactly. You probably don't even know their names, but they're people who are running billions and billions of dollars for all of us who have 401ks. Those are the Meisters, hopefully. Hopefully. Non-indexing. So So the question I have for individuals, for non-professionals, for people that are managing their own portfolio, how do they internalize this idea that, oh, these are just these professionals that are doing this and I could never do anything like that?

44:32Of course, they don't have the same tools available to them. So let's identify that point as a real thing. But how do they interpret all of this and distill it down for their own use? Well, I mean, the beauty, one of the beauties of doing this book as a set of interviews with different maestros, where we really chose them completely based on numbers and not based on even knowing who they were, is that we ended up with a really diverse group. They all run very different strategies. Even the ones that, you know, there are a bunch that do small cap, but they all do it very differently from each other.

45:11They grew up in different parts of the world, in different walks of life. Like if anything, if you were just starting out and interested in becoming a professional investor, the message here is like, you can. And they didn't all read, they didn't all study economics or finance or go to Wharton or, you know, any of that. Some of them did, but a lot of them did random stuff. So it's not about that. It's not even about having, you know, gone to the right school or got the right degree. What it is about is being disciplined. And in the end, like, if you can't do that, then you're gambling. That's really, I mean, and enjoy yourself, you know, but know that that's what you're doing.

45:59I mean, I know this as a money manager for many years. And obviously we called the Discipline Investor Podcast and Discipline Investor Manic Growth Strategy that we have. And it is about discipline. There's things that you have to do. And sometimes I'll give you an example. By the way, we have part of our one of our portfolio strategies that is this quantitative base, right? It's like this is what will be in the portfolio. And I look at it. I'm like, oh, God, no. Oh, no, no. I don't want to put that in there. And I can't tell you how many times I've been surprised at something that I'm like, I don't, I just feel really wrong about this.

46:31And it actually works out because my system that we are, we are disciplined to follow in this regard. And this, it, it identified something that maybe I had a, a dark view of that maybe was in the past or maybe, you know, it was just a whole different situation. One I can, I remember very distinctly was we were long Carvana recently. And I'm like, oh God, no. Oh no, no, no. I don't want to do that. I really don't want to do that. And it's like, and I went to, in our office of portfolio manager, I said, hey, what do you think about not put, no, that's not how it works. I'm like, yeah, but you know, what else do you want to make an exception for?

47:14I'm like, yeah. And then Carvana kept on going up. kept on going up. We cut it finally, which was great. I was thrilled with a nice profit on it. And then it rolled over hard. And that's again, back to that again, my system obviously did what was right in that particular regard. It may not happen all the time, but gap was another one. There was a few other ones that I was like, ah, I just, I don't want that in there. Um, but. There's a chapter, the chapter in this book, um, with the James English Jones and Samantha Gleave, That's like a duo who run a European systematic cash flow oriented fund.

47:54And the beauty of it and you find that the humility is sort of a common thread across all of these different managers, actually. But James in particular was very cognizant of his emotional sort of reaction to prices falling and the fear. And I mean, having been through the financial crisis and been through lots of different situations, he knew I will not be able to make good decisions. I need the system to be the system. And we do not deviate from the system. We just better make that system be like super robust and steeped in, you know, academic proof and all the rest. And what they've done with their system, it makes a lot of common sense.

48:37But having seen their scores, it's like, wow, very impressive. And this is a score of 49%, just to restate this point, on the hit rate for them. 63 % on the behavior alpha score, which, by the way, is probably because they have a system. Yeah. Because if they didn't, it would be a lot lower because he'd be spooked out. Like 50 would be just your index fund, what would have been achieved by chance. So he's way over that. Right, and then 246 on the payoff ratio, which is a nice dial. So their biggest winner, sorry, their average winner is winning them almost two and a half times as much as their average loser is losing them.

49:18That's the way to play. Which is a great ratio. You don't have to be right more than 49 % of the time to make a lot of money doing that. And what's interesting about this, by the way, this is something I want to ask you, because when I read this and I was going over the various charts particularly on page, if you want to kind of follow me here, 181. And this is right with Jones and Cleve. But it's the Bank of Ireland share price from 2019 to 2024. So here's what I found interesting. First, I was looking at something that's going, all right, big deal. Seriously, I was like, eh. But it's interesting because they bought this down a 3 % position back in 2020.

49:52They didn't do anything with that, let it just groove and grow, which was great, by the way. It moved up to a 7 % position. They reduced it down to a 4 % position late 2023. They exited kind of on the bottom when it was going and then went back up, but it hasn't gone anywhere in 2024. But this kind of chart was interesting. There's other chart examples like this where they start out with like a half percent position. You know, they increased it to a 1 % position or, you know, because it didn't go anywhere, came back a little bit. It's kind of interesting. These are not huge positions in any of this.

50:25So here's another one. Page 113, this is John Lynn. he bought uh utang bus shares um bought a three percent position reduced it down to a one percent at the or reduced it down to zero i can't read that it's very small he reduced it to one is that one yeah okay one um exited the position again then he bought it back on the on the dip down a two percent position uh you know four years later yeah there's a lot of times those are really small positions now he's running a you know he's running a big um chinese equity fund where he has to be diversified and he's running it against a benchmark. So it's not like his PA portfolio where he could take really big bets.

51:04But the point is though, a lot of people won't go back to the well. You've heard this before, right? Like, look, I got the gain. I got the, look, so here's the, I'll set it up. Bought it at 12, bought more at 18, sold it at half at 32. It went back up a little bit more. I was lucky. I sold at 35. I'm out. Now, the psychology is I'm not going back because if I go back into it, what's going to happen? If I lose, I lose all these great profits I had. No longer do I get to stamp that as the winner extraordinaire and I could take something. Let's go somewhere else. Therefore, I can keep that trophy on my mantle.

51:43Is that you've heard this? I mean, it comes up so many times in the book of people saying, I don't if I got out, I wouldn't be able to get back in. And I psychologically wouldn't be able to get back in, which the hedge fund guys don't say that, right? Because they've been trained like, yeah, you can. What's the problem? Like each at bat is a new chance and you just better have a good set of criteria. But with the long only guys and particularly the ones who are running a concentrated portfolio or just very long term positions, they get so invested emotionally and intellectually and they go around the market telling the story of this stock.

52:21and it's all about this narrative. And then once they abandon that narrative, the idea of coming back to it, particularly if it was something that lost some money, is like, they really struggle. And I think that's a huge mistake, actually. I think there is a guy in one of the chapters, Greg Padilla from Aristotle. He makes a point about, we don't just like cut it and walk away. We just stand back on the sidelines and watch the play and see if we can get comfortable again. Because we, and same thing when you exit a profit, you made a lot of money. Great. But don't totally stop paying attention because you might want to get back in.

53:06Right. You know, that does happen. And I think most fund managers don't have that sort of watch list that's going on after they get out. I have three more questions. First, you said and you've discussed that recent performance is often an extremely poor proxy for skill because it doesn't accurately attribute the outcome to specific decisions. Right. How should allocators, those pension funds, those that are listening, are institutional boys and girls that are listening, how can they use a framework like yours to evaluate managers better? I mean, I think most professional fund selectors and manager researchers know that the performance data that they're using as a quantitative screen for managers or way of monitoring managers isn't really that useful, but it's kind of all they have.

54:10And so they use it. And then they try and supplement that with qualitative data from interviewing and doing research about the managers and that type of thing. But actually, now, if they can get their hands on daily holdings data, which they can if they're running segregated accounts, if they've allocated to a manager in the form of an account that they actually own, then they have control of that data. Or if they can tell the manager, give these people your data to do this analysis, because it's a bit like going to get your blood work done. like you should probably do it because it's going to tell you a lot more than just looking at your blood pressure and weighing you you know like we we need to actually see what's going on here so that you can be the healthiest you can be for your own good yeah and as people who are backing you we would we would hope that you're going to be healthy and good too so um there's a there's a role for the allocators to play in suggesting to managers that they get this blood work done and then know that because Essentia Analytics is founded by somebody who was a fund manager and it was founded for the fund manager, it is not about humiliating the fund manager.

55:28It really isn't. It's about showing you, here are the things you're doing that are like clearly skill and you should brag about. And here are the things that you were doing where if you did it slightly differently, you could get a better result and we can help you if you want to be helped with that. Have you ever had the big idea of commercializing this somehow to make a standardization for making it easier for others to pick those particular winners like a la Morningstar has done for the Mutual Fund universe? I'm sure you've thought about it. Well, we definitely. And earlier, well, about a year ago, signed a partnership with Morningstar.

56:11There you go. Or strategic alliance anyway. whereby we are developing this for their Morningstar direct platform. And it's just a question of, okay, well, Morningstar itself is operating off monthly data. And the world has got so much more granular than that, that this is an opportunity for them to leverage daily data. daily data makes a huge difference to what you can see when you create a feedback loop on the decision-making that's going on in your firm. Like monthly hides way too much stuff. Right. I would think it'd be interesting also if you could do some kind of like plugin on a smaller scale to like those, like we use something called Orion, you know, like utilize Orion cause that obviously has all the data.

57:01Now we have different accounts and individualized accounts. It's not one big block, you know, but still you could do composite work on that, that'd be kind of something interesting also on a, on a lower, uh, not the institutional side, right. You know, the institutional scale that if somehow you could do some kind of, dare I say AI based on your, on your protocols with Orion. Anyway, um, I'll let you run. I did, you know, uh, like a week after the book came out, I got a LinkedIn request from somebody who said, I've just been reading your book. I'm convinced that, you know, This is the way forward.

57:34And I need you to analyze my fund. And I looked him up and I thought, oh, he'll never be able to afford this. I mean, he won't have the data like it's it's complicated, except I you know, I he was very transparent about why he wanted it analyzed. And I feel his pain. And so I'm a softy ultimately and was like, sure, let's talk. And so I said to him, look, we normally we will do for a large client, a pilot or we do like a one off analysis. It costs 15 grand, which, you know, we don't actually really make money off that, but it gets it gets you a taste and you can do this analysis. And and in as a pilot, it's about giving them a taste so that they sign up for lots of portfolios.

58:19But I'll do it for you as a one off because I can see you really need it. But you do have to find a way to get the data. and here's the data template. And he said, oh gosh, our service providers aren't really very great. We're small, so we don't really get great data back. But we do get an email once a day with a PDF of our holdings. And we've been getting that for five years or something. And I said, all right, we'll get Claude out and start scraping that email because you could make a data file, I bet, by doing that. Let's see, try it. And he did, he got his team to do it. And in two days he had the data set.

58:59And in six days we had the analysis and then he can go to his board with like way more transparency in his own mind about what is going on here and what are they. That's interesting. I don't know how small he was, but I mean, our firm, we could, I could pop dated you in literally a minute, you know, of, we just, all the stuff where everything, we know everything at all times where everything is and it's all can slice and dice it in 150 ways. Oh, that's so good. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, some people are waiting for the hat. on that. No, you got to know this, right? You got to know this stuff. If you don't know, if you don't know where your bank account is reconciled or not, how do you even go forward?

59:33Yeah. And yeah, I mean, I'm obsessed with, it's funny. People keep asking me, how's the book doing? And I'm like, the analytics in the publishing industry are shockingly slow and poor. Yes. Like how do you live without that feedback? It's doing great. I'm going to tell you right now, it's doing great. How's that? I think it is actually. It was, it was the number one new release in its investment management space. So what, last quick things on the end here. What, you, not only did you do the analytics, but you actually talked to the people, of course, you know, throughout this. Do you have any particular favorite, like, oh, this was really memorable.

1:00:15Some story about something from all these interviews that really stuck with you and maybe even challenged your own thinking? gosh there were like a bunch of them i think probably the most inspirational one for me is josh goldberg which is the first chapter and i won't i won't spoil it but this dude has been beaten a lot of odds and persevered through a lot of things that should have put an end to him and his business and he's thriving because he is, is continuously improving and that is his nature. And he, he insists on it being the case for everybody around him. And, and what he's been able to do is carve out like a really specific way of making money and then protect, you know, just keep honing it and honing it.

1:01:10And that's awesome. Yeah. Have a read to see what the, what the juicy part is, but it is. it takes all kinds out there. You know, none of these people running big money is magically, you know, endowed. They, they have all learned a lot the hard way and somehow managed to survive to fight another day. And that's how they've got, you know, down the road to where they are. They've learned from the past. That's, that's what I, you know, when I talk to Jack Schwager too, and other people that, that, that interview other major players and the things that you read from the, memoirs and books of those players that they put out themselves, the story's the same.

1:01:50It's all about the hard work, the discipline. Discipline comes up all the time. That's why my first book was called The Discipline Investor. That was the whole point of it. I was trying to create, to be honest with you, a discipline that I could put down in writing for me. That was the whole point. That was the whole point. Like, look, you know, I'm like, you know what? I hate things that fall through the cracks. I don't want to miss an opportunity if possible, Right. I don't want to get run out for the side of the road because I wasn't looking. I don't want to, you know, all this kind of stuff that's going on.

1:02:20And let me put it down on paper. And that turned into a book. That's how that all happened, by the way. And, you know, you learn a lot. What what did you learn? What did you going through this experience with a co-author? Right. What did you find out that you didn't know before? Was there something? i mean i learned a lot about the publishing industry and how that works we know about that that's a tough one that was interesting and by the way try to do your own audible have you done an audible did you do the own your own audible i did not do my own and they wanted me to do my own audible do you know horrifyingly difficult it is to read your own book for days on end and each day that you come back you have to make sure that you have the same tonality in your voice that you did the same speed the whole time and yeah oh Oh, my, in this one, there aren't very many female voices.

1:03:11So I could have probably got away with reading. You have a great voice. You would do a great voice. Well, the person who did read the chapter where she says my name mispronounced my name. How can you mispronounce it? It's like phonetically, it's not even, there's nothing in it. There's no, there's one. No, you know what? Actually, now that I think of it, it's Levy rather than Levy. Oh, Levy, Levy. That's, I have a friend. I mean, this is why I'm like, whatever. I have a buddy, his name is L-E-V-I-N-E. How do you say that? Levine? No, Levine. He's Levine. I'm like, what do you mean you're Levine?

1:03:43Who's Levine? Okay. So you're Levine. Okay, Claire Flynn Levy. But I, and I love, I love audiobooks. Actually, I've been listening. I wouldn't have even known. Obviously, I've read this book lots of times. So you could think like, why bother listening to it? But I was dying to hear the voices. And it is pretty good. And it flows really nicely because it's voices talking, having a conversation. It's not quite a podcast, but, you know, more than a normal book. Great stuff. Great stuff. Well, thank you for writing this book. Thank you for coming on today. And thank you for all the things you do for all those people out there.

1:04:20And great stuff. Really, really happy for you. Proud of you. And you're doing great. Thanks so much. It was great to catch up with you. And, yeah, thanks for having me. Do it again. Thanks. Okay. always great to talk with Clara Flynn Levy. She was great. It's been a couple of years that we have not talked. So catching up and finding out more about this. And it's always, I find it always really interesting and refreshing and frankly, very satisfying when you hear that the great of the greats have a batting average that's usually under 50. And the fact that they can not only hit the home runs, but consistently bat and do well and achieve greatness for themselves and their clients is very inspirational to me.

1:05:13And I think that the idea that we can do that as disciplined investors, you can do that as a disciplined investor, is something to take heart. and to understand that the opportunities that we have in a stock market, a market of stocks is such that by creating a very good discipline, it's what we teach and are pounding into your psyche on a regular basis, this whole disciplined way of being when it comes to investing is what it really takes to make sure that you have the various ratios, which when we talk about it in regards to stock market maestros, we're talking about this behavioral alpha score, the hit rate, the payoff ratio, all those things that may be overlooked sometimes are extraordinarily important in the long run.

1:06:05So let's continue to be disciplined investors. Let's continue to be solid with what we're doing. Next week coming up, we have Tom Nelson. and then we have Wes Gray from Alpha Architect coming up at the end of April. So a lot of great things happening for this month. Thank you for joining me this week. Go over to thedisciplinedinvestor.com, episode number 968. On the show notes, you'll find information about Claire Flynn Levy and her book, as well as information on how to get in touch with us as well. Thanks for joining me this week and every week. I'll see you again real soon.

1:06:41This podcast is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and past performance is not indicative of future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of the host and any guests and may not necessarily reflect those of Horowitz & Company, Inc., an investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of training or skill. Advisory services are only offered to a client or prospective clients where Horowitz and Company is properly registered or is excluded from registration requirements.

1:07:19Any mention of third-party companies, products, or services is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an endorsement. Hypothetical scenarios or forward-looking statements are for illustrative purposes and should not be viewed as guarantees. Content is intended for U.S. residents only and may not be applicable in other jurisdictions. listeners should consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions please visit our website for additional information disclosures as well as a copy of our form crs advertisements are not related to the host or affiliates and are not considered recommendations by the host of the show or any affiliate support

1:08:08We'll be right back.

From the publisher

We kind of have a ceasefire – depends on who you ask.

The Fed still thinking of a rate cut this year.

Best day for the markets since …..April 2025 – Worst day for Oil in 6 years – Governments heavy hand…

We are talking Stock Market Maestros with our guest – Clare Flynn Levy, CEO of Essentia Analytics


NEW! DOWNLOAD THE AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment)

 

Clare Flynn Levy is the founder and CEO of Essentia Analytics, a fintech firm that uses decision attribution analytics to help both equity fund managers and allocators of capital identify investment skill and bias – and continuously improve their decision-making. Essentia leads the field in behavioral analytics and works with many of the world’s largest investment managers. Prior to founding Essentia, Clare spent 10 years as a fund manager, both active equity (running over $1bn of pension funds for Deutsche Asset Management) and hedge (as CIO of Avocet Capital Management, a technology hedge fund). She’s the co-author of “Stock Market Maestros: The winning habits, strategies, and mindsets of the world’s best investors” (2026).

Follow @cflynnlevy

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

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Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE

Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SPY), (USO)

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