TDI Podcast: The Briefing Trader (#981)

12 Jul 2026 · 1 h 4 min · 19 chapters

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In short

Whether the “AI trade” is peaking due to potential overbuilding/compute overcapacity, and how that compares to the late-1990s fiber-optics bubble; also how to interpret earnings, options positioning, and macro data during earnings season.

Guest

Gavin McGuire, Senior Analyst at Briefing.com; 20+ years market experience. Previously worked at Zacks (1998–2001) during the dot-com era and at Trading Markets. At Briefing.com for ~24 years, covering macro/econ data and earnings; runs the Sentiment and Flow audio program and provides daily trading/investment ideas for Briefing.com subscribers. Based in North Carolina; University of Scranton graduate.

Key claims

Meta’s plan to sell excess compute (unused GPU capacity) suggests possible AI infrastructure overcapacity; investors worry about returns on capital as more players build. He argues there’s no clear “AI bust” yet because demand is still strong, but monetization/ROI is less certain. Risk focus includes crowded options/leverage amplifying moves and “ground zero” for an AI-rally breakdown via hyperscaler/circular financing dynamics.

Notable examples

Meta; references to OpenAI, SpaceX/XAI, SoftBank Stargate, Oracle, CoreWeave, Digital Realty, NVIDIA, Amazon; dot-com/fiber names like Global Crossing, Level 3, WorldCom. Earnings examples mentioned: Samsung (down after beat), Pepsi (revenue/earnings mix; inflationary cost risk), Costco (weak store sales deceleration), Delta upcoming. Buzzword caution: “constant currency” and “framework”; watch free cash flow.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Current Market Trends

1:12 to 1:53

Discussion on current events affecting oil, AI trades, and earnings.

“Some are saying the AI trade has peaked.”

AI Infrastructure and Capacity Concerns

1:53 to 5:00

Exploration of the implications of AI infrastructure spending and capacity issues.

“And this is a big issue because we saw announcements from companies like Meta.”

Historical Parallels: Fiber Optics Bubble

5:00 to 8:03

Comparison between current AI build-out and the fiber optics bubble of the late 1990s.

“But yet again, wait a minute, you have to question, hmm, I thought they didn't have enough.”

Demand vs. Supply in AI

8:03 to 14:01

Discussion on demand for AI and whether it will keep up with supply expansions.

“And maybe this demand is softening a little bit.”

Analyzing AI Demand and Infrastructure

14:01 to 18:53

Explore the current state of AI investment and infrastructure challenges.

“Is this internet thing going to actually fly?”

Gavin McGuire's Career Journey

20:10 to 22:44

Discover Gavin's experiences during pivotal moments in market history.

“Thanks so much for asking, and I'm really appreciative of you coming on board.”

Shifts in Market Dynamics and Data Needs

22:44 to 28:00

Discuss the evolution of trading data and today's market challenges.

“But then I went to go work for Trading Markets, which was they basically sell a lot of different trader content, how-to trading profiles and products like that.”

Understanding Options and P/E Ratios

28:00 to 29:59

Explore how options positioning and P/E ratios influence investment decisions.

“I would say one of the things that we do like to kind of look at a little bit more on the occasion is options positioning just because it's become such a bigger.”

Berkshire Hathaway's Investment Approach

30:00 to 31:29

Discuss the investment philosophy of Berkshire Hathaway and its response to market conditions.

“That was not a – that was like – It wasn't popular.”

Utilizing Briefing Tools for Market Insights

32:40 to 38:21

Discover how to effectively use Briefing.com's offerings for market analysis.

“You know, one of the problems with AI that you get is you get bad data fronts in there.”
Show all 19 chapters

Economic Data's Role in Market Movement

38:22 to 42:05

Analyze the fluctuating importance of economic data in influencing market trends.

“And then throughout the course of the day, as you said, when a headline comes across, everyone's like, what just happened?”

Understanding Market Reactions

42:05 to 43:54

Learn about the relationship between analysts' expectations and market reactions.

“So we just try to make sure that there's a good understanding of what the expectations are going into that print so that people know why the market might react to the way it does.”

Central Banks and Market Influence

43:54 to 45:26

Explore the role of central banks in shaping market dynamics and perceptions.

“That seemed to be, unfortunately, the realities.”

Earnings Performance and Market Stability

45:26 to 47:08

Discover how strong earnings reports can mitigate geopolitical fears in the market.

“Then all of a sudden, like the credibility started coming into play.”

Circular Financing and Its Implications

47:08 to 49:15

Understand the concept of circular financing and its impact on major tech companies.

“We're obviously about to embark on Q2 earnings.”

Risks and Buzzwords in Earnings Calls

49:15 to 51:13

Identify key buzzwords in earnings calls that may indicate underlying issues.

“Well, that's obviously one of the bigger risks for the AI story.”

Forecasting Earnings Trends

51:13 to 56:00

Learn how to interpret earnings forecasts and identify potential red flags.

“When you have a commentary that shows certain phrases, certain buzzwords, they always catch my attention like constant currency.”

Market Analysis and Earnings Expectations

56:00 to 1:00:46

Discussion on earnings expectations and market behavior surrounding them.

“Like, in other words, you could see by the where they are, what happened to the quarter on a month, if they share any information on like retail on a shorter term basis.”

Investor Resources and Support

1:00:46 to 1:01:48

Information on resources available for investors facing job transitions.

“And therefore, you know, the buy the dip mentality needs to kind of continue to be in play.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00This episode is brought to you by Interactive Brokers. You know, world events, they unfold in real time. Now you can trade them. With IBKR prediction markets, trade election, climate, and economic outcomes along stocks, options, and bonds, all on one integrated platform. These are simple yes-or-no contracts priced to reflect the market's view of probability. And if your prediction is right, well, you receive$1 per contract and earn interest on your position while you're invested. IBKR prediction markets turn market expectations into actionable trades. Prediction contracts are not suitable for all investors.

0:36Learn more at IBKR.com slash predictions.

0:43Gavin Maguire:The Disciplined Investor is all about you, your money, and the markets. Sit back and get ready for this edition of The Disciplined Investor Podcast. This episode of The Disciplined Investor is sponsored by Horowitz & Company. If you're looking for a portfolio manager, look no further. Horowitz & Company, from seed through harvest, cultivating financial success.

1:12The war is back on. Oil on the rise. Some are saying the AI trade has peaked. I have some thoughts on that. Earnings season just days away. And we'll talk about that with our guest, Gavin McGuire, Senior Analyst at Briefing.com. all this and much more on episode number 981 of the Disciplined Investor Podcast.

1:53And hey, it's Andrew Horowitz here. And we're going to be talking about a lot of different things on this particular episode, but one of the things I thought that we would talk about is some of the things that are going on in the world of tech and AI, because a lot of people have been asking questions about that. We're going to probably get a little deeper into this with our guest today, but I thought we would talk about some of the things that I thought were interesting because I went back and did a little research, and we looked back at a particular period in history to find out whether or not there was any similarities, differences, and maybe possibly what's in store for the future when it comes to this AI trade.

2:28And, you know, one of the biggest things that we saw is that investors are suddenly, maybe, they're looking at this and focusing on the possibility, just the possibility, that the AI infrastructure build out may be creating more capacity than near-term demand really requires. And this is a big issue because we saw announcements from companies like Meta. That was the big one. Meta was the big one, and that was an issue that I think we need to really focus in on. But also we saw some inklings and kind of mentions by companies like SoftBank and OpenAI as well. In fact, SpaceX also had some things to say.

3:12So the biggest tell yet and the biggest talk that we saw right now was from Meta. And they came out with a discussion and they said that they're basically creating a cloud business that is going to be selling some of the excess. They didn't really say it this way, but this is what it sounded like. The excess compute capacity to customers. It's kind of surprising because for a long time we heard about just the opposite, that the demand is there and compute infrastructure is not there. Or in other words, the supply-demand curve was kind of off. And the fact is that now both Reuters and CNBC are reporting that this unused, unused GPU data center capacity that they have is going to be available to lease and rent.

4:05Really? That was only for internal AI projects for a long period of time. And now all of a sudden we're going to be seeing this used for outside and others? Interesting. And really the significance of this, I think, was that Meta is expected to spend, what,$125,$150 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026. And that being the case, this large deployment, this is the biggest, one of the biggest CapEx deployments that we've seen, is really now all of a sudden coming into question as to why are they doing this? Is it possible, maybe, that OpenAI and SpaceX or XAI and Meta are going to do these things in order to grab some revenue initially as they're continuing their buildup?

5:00But yet again, wait a minute, you have to question, hmm, I thought they didn't have enough. They didn't have enough capacity for what they were doing right now. Now, Meta may be put in a different category because a lot of the compute capacity that they were using was for their own projects. And maybe they've reached the limit of where they can get to for the time being. When you look at OpenAI, you look at Claw, you look at even Amazon for that matter. Maybe there's something different going on with those. But the fact is that Zuckerberg recently discussed this overbuilding. And he specifically noted that if Meta ended up with more capacity, they'll sell the compute was an option.

5:43So maybe that's what's getting people a little bit concerned. But I guess we have to go back to why is there overcapacity? Probably there's some reasonable explanations, I would think. You'd have to think about the training capacity is a little bit lumpy. We don't have a straight line on this where we're seeing that there is an absolute level of straight line training that's going on to put it to the models. And sometimes it gets stalled. And sometimes when we see the building and the data centers being built, maybe they don't have the capacity for that. Maybe some of these frontier models, which require enormous compute for training, maybe they're calming down a little bit and they're becoming maybe not developed but emerging.

6:29Interesting. Is it possible that Meta built ahead of their demand? Maybe. Is it constrained to just Meta? I don't think so because we're starting to hear things from OpenAI and from SoftBank as well. So maybe there's this whole issue with inference that's going on right now. The efficiency keeps improving. And maybe we're seeing that the next level of agentic isn't going to require as much because what we've done is with this LLMs, the large language models, the training, which took so much, that now yields into inference, that now morphs into agentic, that is pre-built to a degree. So there is something to be said about that.

7:16But SoftBank has a little bit of a different problem because when we look at Stargate, we look at SoftBank, we look at these issues with OpenAI and also with XAI, When we looked at Oracle and others, the original vision was this massive AI infrastructure platform, right, that was reported in 2025 when the commitments were being made by these companies to fund things like Oracle. And if you see an Oracle stock lately, it's in the toilet. I mean, there is no question that Oracle is the canary in the coal mine when it comes to this CapEx expenditures and possibly the overexpansion of this. But we did see that OpenAI and Oracle expand into this project, right, and use numbers and commitments on this.

8:11And maybe this demand is softening a little bit. But the bigger question, all of this, just take everything we're thinking about here, is what happened back in the 1990s with the fiber optics bubble of the late 1990s? Because the build out of what we're seeing now kind of resembles this. I was thinking about this and I was looking back on some history and I was thinking about, well, in the fiber optic build out of the 1990s, it was all about this build to the networks first, right? This huge build-out, which is kind of like the same thing we're seeing now in building the GPU clusters and the infrastructure of the data centers.

8:53We had this assumption back then of future demand. Does it sound familiar? And it was going to be enormous, and there was going to be an unconstrained need for a build-out. And then we had the massive capital spending to fund what was then the assumed amount of fiber optics that were going to be needed. Again, just cut and paste on what's happening now. And then we had some overbuilding. Now, it was interesting. This was in the late 1990s, so 1997 through 2000. We had the long-haul telecommunications, fiber optics needed. We had the internet technology growth that was going on, the capacity, the backbone that was needed for all of this.

9:40That was really something special. We had the data transmission infrastructure and the undersea cables. Remember that that was going on? There were companies that were there and that we look at now and like, who are they? I kind of remember the names. but we had names like Global Crossing, Level 3, WorldCom. We had 360 Network. There was a whole bunch of them. XO, Communications, Williams. Remember these names? Where are they now? If you've been investing and thinking about what's going on from the last 15 years, you'd be like, who are those companies, right? Those are companies that either don't exist or were absorbed into others over the last couple of decades because they don't have any need or any capacity requirements.

10:32This was the letdown of 2001, 2002 of all of these, and it collapsed. It totally collapsed because demand, while it kept growing, the fact was that capacity prices, profit margins, the telecom company valuations were out of control. It all didn't fit. And I wonder, I was thinking, is this similar to what we're seeing today? Is this the same kind of situation where we saw growth in fiber in 2000, or actually 1997 through the 2000s, to where we see GPU growth now? Where we saw bandwidth needed and we have compute needed now. where we had internet traffic forecasts saying that we were going to have this huge amount and the realization being, yes, huge, but the build-outs were meeting the demand.

11:33Same thing with AI demand forecasts of what we're having today because what we're seeing is this talk about unlimited amounts needed. Debt funding started happening. the later we went into the cycle. We saw a lot of this happening with companies already. SpaceX became public,$25 billion or so. We saw that Oracle is loading itself with debt. We're seeing Amazon came out with a debt offering just recently. So this CapEx build-out funded with debt, with equity at first and money that was coming in from all over the place, turned into a debt-funded build-out, which we're seeing now to a degree. And then back then we had overlapping networks.

12:16Aren't we seeing that now? Overlapping data centers that are being utilized for pretty much the same thing and who are going to come out to be the winners. Do we really think, does anybody really think that all of the names that we're seeing today are going to be all of the names in the future? There's going to be mergers. There's going to be acquisitions. There are going to be some that just go by the wayside and just be like, you know what? That's redundant. and the fickle nature of the user is going to come into play and the effective ability for the capitalization and the monetization, more importantly, of what is going on right now is going to come into question.

12:58So, yes, the whole time you're listening to me talk about this, let's say it. Let's admit it, that it is different now. There's one thing that we are seeing that has some similarities. Too many companies that are building, whether we have Meta, Microsoft, we have Amazon, Google, XAI, OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle. You got CoreWeave. You have companies that are in multiple tiers down, Anthropic, that are, well, they're up there, but those companies that are fighting with each other, Some are well capitalized and some are okay capitalized. The major difference that we have today with all these companies, the OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, with Gemini, XAI, etc., they're consuming extraordinary amounts of compute already.

13:57And there is no question whether demand exists. Back then there was a question, is this thing going to go? Is this internet thing going to actually fly? Much different than we have today. But the question is, will demand continue to grow fast enough to absorb all the trillions of dollars? Yes, trillions of dollars of capacity that is being announced almost on a regular basis every single week, if not biweekly. Here's my take. I don't think that the market is saying that there is this broad AI bust that's coming. I don't think that's the case at all. I don't think we can make that case at this point so early on.

14:42And even though there are a lot of similarities to the fiber build out back in the 1990s, investors are trying now and they're getting ahead of things because they've seen what happens. They're trying their best to distinguish between the AI demand, which is extremely strong still. There's no question about that. But the AI infrastructure returns that are going to happen. Again, the monetization and ability for many of these companies to actually form the benefit to the investor. That's what's much less certain right now. And when we go back to looking at Meta, when we look at how they are now selling some of their compute, maybe they prudently overbuilt and they're not get caught up to where they need to be, but they will be the player.

15:35That's a possibility. That's definitely a possibility. For SoftBank and Stargate, maybe it's an execution issue right now with financing, timing of when the money is going to come in, how much the need is for right now and where this is going to go. And I think the biggest risk going forward is not that the data centers will sit empty and some are talking about, well, what are we going to have? Are we going to open up pickleball courts and all these data centers when they go bust? Are we going to have ice rinks and that? I don't think that's the case necessarily at this point where we are today because much of the data center build out that's really required that we could see is still not there.

16:18But the question is, is return on capital going to fall sharply as more players build capacity and the assumptions that are being laid out right now with the valuations on many of these companies, is that what's going to fall prey to an overzealous build-out that's happened? And from an investment standpoint, I think we need to look at, you know, these companies like Digital Realty and we need to look at CoreWeave at Oracle, NVIDIA, the hyperscalers. If they're renting out overcapacity right now, that's going to see some trickle-down effects to many of these other companies that are building, leasing, and spending.

17:06So something to think about right now with all of this going on. And I think that's the questions that really is going to be front and center on many people's minds when it comes to the AI trade right now. So something to consider. Now, before we go on any further, I want to mention something because a lot of people have expressed some interest in this. And if this is you, this is you, I want you to listen up. Have you recently been let go by Microsoft? Well, we're getting a lot of inquiries about that, helping people understand what to do with their benefits, discussing options they have with options and the stock options and the restricted stock and any kind of grants they may have, as well as the 401ks, et cetera.

17:52So I want you to reach out. if you were laid off by Microsoft or Amazon, whoever was doing it meta recently, you can go over to thedisciplinedinvestor.com and we'll give you all the information. Just go on, click the Ask Andrew and we'll make sure to get you set up. We'll set up a time for you and I to get together one-on-one and we'll discuss it and make sure you are well taken care of. We'll make sure you're definitely well taken care of. All right, listen, I want to talk about IBKR and then we'll get to our guests because one thing we do know that you research your investments, You analyze markets, but the question you have to ask yourself is, have you researched your broker?

18:30For the past three years, Interactive Brokers' individual clients averaged 24.3 % annual return, beating the S &P 500. Lower costs, competitive rates, and access to 170-plus global markets help investors keep more of what they earn. The broker you choose matters. Interactive Brokers, member SIPC. Learn more at ibkr.com slash performance. Again, that's ibkr.com slash performance. Let me tell you a little bit about our guest today. His name is Gavin McGuire, and he has more than 20 years of market experience with briefing.com. And that's one place. He goes back a few more years at other places. He contributes to the real-time commentary on the Live in Play page and helps monitor market-moving news, rumors, economic data, earnings reports, geopolitical developments, and broader macro events that shape investor sentiment and the market direction.

19:31And if you are a briefing.com trader subscriber, Gavin provides daily trading and investment ideas under the event custom ticker with a focus on the daily trades in the major indices, including the S &P 500, of course, along with select longer duration opportunities and ETFs and individual stocks. He hosts the Sentiment and Flow Show, and he's a smart guy. He graduated University of Scranton, Pennsylvania, based in North Carolina. He talks about options, technical analysis, and all that, so let's get right to it. So welcome, Gavin. Welcome to the Discipline Investor Podcast. How are you? Doing good, Andrew.

20:11How about yourself? I'm great. Thanks so much for asking, and I'm really appreciative of you coming on board. We've talked many times in the past, and obviously I know you're going to be a wealth of information for the listeners, so that's good. I want to go back for a second and get a little bit of information. I want to talk about you from the aspect of the idea of, well, how did you get to this point? And how did you get to your position right now? And where are you? Because you were at Zacks, I believe, in the late 1990s, right, during the Internet boom. And then you went to something called trading markets after that.

20:50During, I think, what we could probably consider a pretty transformative period for online investing. And I guess the question I have for you is, during that period of time, what was it like watching the retail investor revolution, I think it was a revolution, unfold from the inside? It was pretty interesting times for sure. I was out in Chicago in 98, which is where I started with Zax. And I was working on both the financial content side and the advertising side. So, you know, 98 through 2001 is when I was there, which is, of course, right during the dot-com bubble. And it was just really crazy just seeing things take off there at that point.

21:35You know, everybody was dying for content. Zax was at the forefront there with their earnings per share estimates. Everybody wanted to get that data on their site. It was just starting with banners and different advertising scrolls that were just coming into their nascent being. So it was just impressive seeing everything just kind of blow up for the couple of years. Then, of course, the crash in 2001. But it wasn't difficult to see it coming. I remember there was a French bank that I had as a client that I was selling them data. They couldn't speak a lick of French or English. I couldn't speak any French yet.

22:14I was able to sell them a$250 ,000 contract. Wow. They knew that they needed right there is when I probably should have figured that the bubble's coming. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But, um, so it was just real interesting to kind of see those that time and just everybody scrambling for it. Kind of probably what you see a little bit to some degree in AI right now. Right. Yeah. So, um, you know, just built up and then just kind of fell apart. Right, right on it, right on a pin there. Everybody started rolling back their contracts. We had a bunch of defaults and so on and so forth. But then I went to go work for Trading Markets, which was they basically sell a lot of different trader content, how-to trading profiles and products like that.

23:00So that was going great. They had a great trade show that was about to kick off. And the dates of that was right around September 20th, 2001. Oh, yeah. That obviously did not go off that trade show. So, you know, I ended up moving on from there and moving to briefing where I've been there now for 24 years. So I started off as an equity analyst for him and then I just kind of worked my way up. But now I've basically been a jack of all trades for the last two decades covering econ data, macro data, earnings, kind of whatever is hot. And, you know, I run their trader audio program and such. Well, I mean, listen, you know, because I told you this, I'll admit it.

23:48I'm not embarrassed to say so. I'm a bit of a briefing fanboy. I love the work. Yeah, you know, I love the work that you guys do. And you joined back in 2003. And I want to talk about some of the components of briefing. But if I was to give you the 2003 version of Gavin McGuire, if I was to give you a copy of today's market headlines, right? AI, trillion dollar deals being done, CapEx is out of control, meme stocks, crypto, retail options trading, all that. and 24-hour financial media, what part would you, back in 2003, find hardest to believe? Probably crypto, I would think. Because it's hard to believe this today, so I guess that's why.

24:38I'm not a big crypto believer. Like, I understand storage of wealth, and it's fiat currency, right? As long as people believe in it, then that's all that really matters. But, you know, if you were to tell me that they just created something out of thin air that would be traded around by crypto bros and, you know, expedite. Number one, I would have bought it. Right. I definitely would have bought a ton of it. I probably just would have thrown everything into it. But, you know, hindsight being 20, 20, but that probably would have been the most difficult thing. Certainly the AI would have probably been a little bit difficult to grasp.

25:13You know, I like reading my fair share of sci fi and everything. So maybe I would have been into that. This is right out of 2001 A Space Odyssey. So, you know, you got Dave. Dave. Yeah, exactly. So maybe that wouldn't have been that hard to believe. But one of the things is you also help build a lot of products. You build content that the traders use every single day. And when I say traders, I want to make sure everybody understands this. This is my opinion. The briefing product is not just for traders, right? You have a series of, I would call it from start, from basic to advanced. I guess that's the best way to describe it.

25:54Basic to advanced of products. Some of them are free, frankly, and you can get them on a lot of sites from your reporting and data information. But you've helped build that. And I think, I guess, you know, looking back over your 20-year history and tenure with briefing, what kind of things do you think that 20 years ago people, we don't need it anymore, right? What did we scrap over that period of time from a data content information? And I guess maybe I'll follow it up with what do we need now more than ever?

26:39That's a good question. In terms of scrapping, I mean, I feel like people are so hungry for data information that there hasn't been a lot that's fallen off, really. Our earnings coverage is always one of our top things. and just kind of taking them through the entire lifeline of the earnings from the prior quarter, through the preview, through the actual report, conference call coverage, and then the follow-up. That's all stuff that we've really kind of built on and just kind of provide that steps to people to understand why the stock does what it does. For instance, Samsung blew away expectations on Monday night, and it comes in and it's down 8%.

27:20And, you know, and obviously got SK Hynix getting ready to trade. You got Micron that's been so hot, the DRAM ETF in general. And just kind of understanding the process of, well, it's sold. And this is particularly for new people where, well, it's run up 400 % over the last 12 months or so. So, you know, it's expectations and just kind of running ahead of itself and pulling back in on the sentiment front. But, you know, things like that are really stuff that we like to emphasize. But in terms of stuff that we have covered through the years that we've dropped off, I can't really think of anything offhand just because people are so hungry for data and for information.

28:01I would say one of the things that we do like to kind of look at a little bit more on the occasion is options positioning just because it's become such a bigger. Yeah. I mean, you know what? We just had the June expiry two and a half weeks ago, and it was a notional value of over$7 trillion. That was a quad witching, and that was out of control, by the way, because not only do you have what's going on now, but that was also on an off day, I think it was, because of the weird week. Yeah, it was a Thursday because of Juneteenth. It was all that going on. But, you know, that's another topic entirely to get into with regard to the options and all.

28:39I think if you would ask me that question, the same question, like what don't we need anymore? It almost seems like PE ratio is kind of like everybody knows that that's not the only thing. It used to be only like, what's the PE? What's the PE? What's the PE? It's like, all right. You try to explain to people PE in a vacuum doesn't mean anything, right? Yeah. I mean, value, it's all eye of the beholder, right? I mean, exactly. That's why you could have Walmart trading at 40 times forward earnings and target trading at 16 times. And people are like, well, they do the same thing, right? And then you kind of break down the consumer discretionary spend.

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29:13But yeah, I mean, understanding that, and even now, right, we're trading at about a 21-time forward PE ratio. And everyone's like, well, it's so expensive. But it's really not because the efficiency for the U.S. has gotten so – corporate America has gotten so much better that margins continue to expand. We have a run of, what, 14 % margin growth over the last couple of quarters. So, yeah, so value investing has definitely not been at the forefront. You probably see that with Berkshire where they're sitting on, what,$370 billion in cash because according to Buffett's model, none of this is meeting its value.

29:53But, you know, investors have really thrown that off, thrown that out at the moment. So it's just kind of interesting to see that. I think, though, Buffett's models have changed when they need them to change, right? Remember when they bought Apple? That was not a – that was like – It wasn't popular. But that was not a Buffett buy at the time. The only thing that was going to happen was the hope that – because they weren't even – if I'm not mistaken, I don't think Apple at the time was shareholder-friendly. No. It came after that. I mean, most techs not, right? No, no. Most tech stocks were never shareholder-friendly.

30:26Yeah. But all of a sudden, they pay dividends now. It's a whole different world. In fact, when you look at the recent reconstitution or constituents within the Dow Jones Industrial Average, where's the industrial in there? Yeah. You know? Yeah. I mean, you're even getting talks that Berkshire might go into the Dow, right, and replace Nike. That's more of a fit than Google. Yeah. In my opinion. Yeah. No, NVIDIA too, you could put under that realm, right? But Berkshire would have to be the B shares, and the B shares would have to be split, don't you think? I would think so because it's a price-weighted index, right?

31:05So, I mean, in order to get in, otherwise it would be 22 % of the index probably. Right, exactly, exactly. So let's talk for a second. I want to just take a moment and talk about some of the tools on briefing because, let me tell you, I've been on briefing I don't even know how many years. It's going on decades. I've been using briefing. And to be honest with you, I know that I never scratch the surface of what's going on and what I can use. I have things like I use the earnings pages, the eco pages, eco pages. I use the dual briefing trader with the dual view. I use single views. I use a variety.

31:42You know, I'll go on. I will do and listen to the sentiment and flow show, you know, as it's happening. Clearly, the earnings rips that are coming out, but there's so much more. I mean, there's commentary, there's the brand new, I forgot what you called it, actually, the brand new AI little guy down in the corner there. Yeah, yeah. Well, I mean, look, you got to keep up with the Joneses, right? And if you don't have AI on your site, then you're probably running a little bit behind. People want that simplicity for being able to do a quick search and get right to the storyline. They don't want to be sitting there and be like, OK, which story do I need to click on here to get the right information?

32:23So one of the things that we do have an advantage of is, you know, briefing was at the forefront for online investing. You know, we're running our upgrades, downgrades back in 97, 98 time. Nobody else is doing that. And that's kind of where we have an advantage on our AI, where our LLM model is built on our database. So you've got a scrubbed database. You know, one of the problems with AI that you get is you get bad data fronts in there. You don't know exactly where the large language model is always pulling from. But for ours, it's pulling from our database. So you've got curated data in there that makes it a little cleaner and a little bit easier to read through and more trustworthy, which is a key thing for AI.

33:10But I think that's an important thing that you talk. The word you use was scrub. Now, that I can't emphasize enough for people listening because when you go to sites and you go and you find that ABC stock came out with a 32 cents per share EPS, and maybe that is comparable, maybe it's not. Is it EPSX items? Is there something going on? What do they do? Do they take something out? Is it comparable to the analyst? Is it comparable to what they've even put out in the past? And that's one of the great things that you guys do is you cut through the crap, right? You guys know, look, hey, and I don't even know how many people are on the briefings team.

33:51I do know I've talked to people in the past. A bunch of the gang have been on the show, and they've told me offline too, it's a madhouse during earnings season. I mean, you know, I've been through 80 plus now with briefing, and I started off as an earnings analyst. So that was my, you know, I would, I started the earnings previews that we do and everything. And I mean, you know, doing it long enough, you know, 401, there's going to be that flow 405. Boom. There's 30, 40 names hitting on a busy day. And so it's just a mad scramble where everybody, especially now with remote work, everybody in the chat room be like, I got this ticket.

34:32I got that ticket going through, but, uh, you know, going and checking to make sure that that's a comparable data, making sure that there's no issues with currency conversions at all or anything that could be in play because, you know, making sure you're getting the right JP Morgan revenue number there, you know, you're getting the managed revenue instead of the overall revenue, which is the comparable and understanding if there's only two analysts covering it versus 30, because that makes a difference in the accuracy of that consensus. So, yeah, so we pride ourselves in being, you know, all our, if you saw it, I mean, everybody hates Ernie Caesar.

35:09No, I can imagine. Three weeks of hell. Yeah, I can imagine because it's nonstop and then it comes out. You know, it's interesting what this does and why I really focus in on the screens, the dual view, what's it called? The dual in play. Dual in play, sorry. Dual in play. I had a little mental block there. The dual in play, why I focus in on that, two things. First, something happens, market goes a little wonky, and you're kind of like, what happened there? And it's like, oh, there it goes. Briefing's telling me that somebody said something about something. Or the earnings issue is you see the stock comes out, and if you looked anywhere, it looked like they beat by 5 cents, and they're adjusting, and they're guiding higher.

35:54Meanwhile, the stock's down 12%. You're like, okay, well, the reality, the reasoning was that they didn't meet the whisper, for example, could be, or the stock ran up ahead of this, and the expectation was for that, and they only did this on their outlook. Or they had a one-time item in there that we really need to strip out to show what the – again, I'm just making this up. But, you know, these are things that if you're trying as an individual, an advisor, an investor, a team of investors, a team of advisors to understand what's happening, the problem is there's a lot to cover at once, particularly in those days when you have like four, three or four major companies in the afternoon or in the morning for that matter.

36:35So kudos to you guys for that. Appreciate it. Let's talk about the market backdrop. You know, you run the Sentiment and Flow show. This is an audio visual show that you have on briefing. Who's that available to? Anybody who's on our trader product. The trader product, which is the top product. Yeah, that's our high-end product. I've been running the audio portion now for the last five, six years. And it's a chat room. And we've got some real savvy users out there, as you said. But, you know, a lot of smart people that are retired that are still trading in the markets, investors and everything.

37:15So we got a really strong room in there, which is great for trading ideas and investment ideas and understanding exactly why stocks move the way they do. But so it's nice. It's an audio program. We kick it off at about 9 a.m., just about 30 minutes before the market opens, kind of run through what happened overnight, get the trader set up for everybody. and just a real clear understanding of why we're moving and what the main drivers are. We got a real savvy group of analysts that are able to cover that. Pat O 'Hare does a great job with Page 1, 2, writing that up. One of the better writers that she'll run across.

37:52He's been on the show. Pat's been on the show. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Pat's smart as a whip and just a phenomenal writer. So always recommend checking out Page 1 to get a good sense. I myself do the TA page scans, which that stands for technical analysis. People don't technical analysis. Exactly. So, yeah. So it's got a whole bunch of different trading setups there, but also overall macro look at the markets and everything. But we'll just kind of break in and the top stories, top movers that are going out there and explain why they're moving where they are, point out technical levels to people. And then throughout the course of the day, as you said, when a headline comes across, everyone's like, what just happened?

38:31And, you know, and we'll go in and we'll explain it, break it down. And again, we've just got a team of analysts that if you looked at the average length of stay for people are briefing, it's quite there's a lot. I'm not even the oldest person. Long time. What's who have I had on before? He's been on like he's been there forever. Damon. Damon. Damon. He's like he's like Damon. Damon's like an institution. Yeah, he's he came basically straight out of Stanford and started working for Dick Green there. And he created the trader product and yeah, he's been on for 30 years. Pat's been on for 27 or so, I think.

39:07Yeah. So, and I'm 20. Yeah, I'm a newbie. I still got some time on a few people, but I mean, I could think of about 15, 20 people with over 10 years of experience at briefing.com. So it's a savvy group of folks that, you know, it's a bit of a skeleton crew at times, but I mean, everybody knows what they're doing and understands the markets, which is great for getting the message out. One of the things also I like is when you put out your earnings numbers and your, well, even your economic numbers, one of the things I like is you show the importance of it and how it weighs on markets, but that's number one.

39:39Number two, although economics, my opinion, nobody gives a shit about it anymore. It's like kind of like we care about it, but it doesn't, moves markets for 30 seconds and it's like, okay, that was boring. Well, it's all about what it's going to do for the impact of the Fed, right? Fed, that's all it is. That's all it is. And I guess that's what Warsh is trying to change now at the moment, right? I hated that. I really, really, I found that - Making econ data great again. Yeah, exactly. I really honestly found that when I started my career, I was really macrocentric and I thought that there was a lot of economics that I could look at to build portfolio composition and construct an allocation that would be appropriate for clients based on what I would think were the outlooks and all that.

40:18And then the last, I don't know, 15 years, maybe 10 years, 15 years. Well, definitely last 10 years. Last 15 years, probably maybe since Bernanke when, or maybe since the great financial crisis, I don't know, somewhere around there, it became less and less and less. And it became that there was less importance put on it because maybe the Fed showed or maybe people believed that there's no longer going to be a downside that's too long because the invisible hand, the, you know, the fine. The Fed put. The Fed put was, yeah, exactly. Which I guess was really Bernanke on there. But nonetheless, one of the things you do for economic numbers is you actually put two things.

41:00You have a number of, let's say, unemployment, 4.2%. That's briefing.com's estimate. But then you also put the analyst's estimate next to it to show where you guys are versus where they are. Yeah, yeah. It's just to kind of help differentiate. I mean, because you could have outliers on econ data and everything like that. So, you know, we try to give a sense of where we think that the market could be off sides in terms of anticipation. And I agree in terms of for an investor, you know, one data point is not going to change anything. It can have an impact for how a trader reacts. And so, you know, we try to do our previews for the bigger data points and make sure that people are kind of well aware of what the expectations are.

41:47And then if they come in lighter beat handily, whatever it might be, from time to time, you will get that one data point that everyone's got an eye on, right? BLS report or CPI report, they've had their day in the sun for having pretty big single-day market impacts, that's for sure. So we just try to make sure that there's a good understanding of what the expectations are going into that print so that people know why the market might react to the way it does. You know, there's a data point that I haven't looked at in a while, but I used to look at a lot. And now I'm not even remembering the name of it.

42:22Maybe you can help me. It was where we looked at the differential between analysts' expectations and reality and how far they were off. CPI, Citibank, EGIS Economic Express. Yeah, because we looked at that and we always found that to be what I learned from that over the years tracking it is, One, most economic analysts will try to stick to consensus because that's their job. And the fact is they get too far away from consensus. And what happens? They get fired, right? Because they're wrong. Because the consensus is kind of what it is. You can't get fired if you're like, well, everybody was there too.

43:00Yeah. You know? No, exactly. Exactly. You don't want to be sticking your neck out too much, right? Maybe a little tweakier there. I don't know if you've used this lately, but I got to go back to looking at this because there was a definitive trend where economic analysts would get too excited and then too downtrodden. And whenever those started to miss is where when the economics need to catch up or they need to catch up. So if they were too excited for a long time and economics were down, they would bring their consensus or they would individually bring their analysis levels down to or their expectations down.

43:35And that would all of a sudden start impacting markets. But again, And it's been a number of years that we've kind of gotten away from that, of looking at even the big picture economics, because it was more so what the central banks were going to do, how much money is going to be printed, where they're going, and where they're pointing us to go. That seemed to be, unfortunately, the realities. Would you agree with that? I completely agree. And that's all stuff I think that Warsh is trying to get away from, right? the idea that let the market be the market and not the central bank driving everything right the whole you can't fight the fed notion and all that trying to get away from that and it was it was you know a necessary evil and during the great financial crisis and it just kind of built upon that after bernanke right you know helicopter ben and that whole and the communication strategy that whole thing which was you know they they they created this thing i was at a meeting with him I remember he was talking about this at a luncheon, and he's talking about the communication strategy.

44:35I'm like, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, the communication strategy? You mean you're going to tell us where you want the markets to go, and you're going to have the parade of Fed, what turned out to be the parade of Fed speakers out at every luncheon talking about this just to adjust, walk back, adjust, readjust, walk back. That's what all it was. No, exactly. And you see that in the dissensions, right? I mean, if you see one dissension nowadays, you're like, oh, my God, how is this positive? Right. Right. Because it was such a group think just said, again, it was necessary during the great financial crisis.

45:10And I just feel like it was just kind of a rabbit hole that they fell down into. And then they expanded it with the summary of economic projections, the dot plots and all that. And they kind of got themselves in trouble with it because, you know, when they're so far off with the transitory inflation story and everything, Then all of a sudden, like the credibility started coming into play. Really, all it showed was just how difficult it is to project an economy more than two, three years out. So you talk about leverage and volatility risk, and you've highlighted this. I think one of the most recent sentiment flow shows, the fundamental backdrop remains fairly healthy.

45:49And leverage, though, and crowded options trading and positioning could amplify market moves, which, by the way, markets are jumpy, even though the VIX is, I don't even understand how the VIX is where it is, but let's move on from that for a second. It's unbelievable. Where do you see the greatest risk of maybe a volatility event maybe? Because even going back to war, don't forget, they walk back stuff every five minutes. That's what this market is doing. It's like, well, you said you're going to war, but then we're going to pound them for the next three weeks. And then like eight hours later, like, no, no, I didn't say that.

46:28What? You know, we're only going to do it. It's going to be short. We're going to be in and out. It's not going to be a problem. So is there a catalyst? Is there something that could be a problematic? Or is this kind of like, you know, the bullishness is so strong that it doesn't matter at this point? Well, I mean, look, the earnings have been so strong. I don't think it matters at this point. At the end of the day, corporate America just kind of keeps the ship afloat. We're looking at a quarter where we're expected 23 % earnings per share growth. It's going to be, I think, the seventh or eighth quarter of double-digit growth, the second straight one at 20 % earnings growth.

47:01So that's been able to wash away a lot of the geopolitical fears that we have. Now, it's interesting to see. We're obviously about to embark on Q2 earnings. We talked about Samsung earlier. Pepsi today, that was an interesting one. They beat on revs. They missed on earnings. They highlighted the potential for increased inflationary costs in the second half of 2026 here. So, you know, Costco came out with comparative store sales that were a little bit weak, you know, and that was a question. Anybody loves that stock, obviously, generally speaking, but just another one of valuation, right? High valuation.

47:40That was really more just a slow, a slower deceleration. It was 8 % last month, it was 7 % this month. And it goes to show people are very sensitive to what the consumer is doing. And we get Delta tomorrow. And that's going to be interesting because that's a high-end consumer. That's company buying. Everybody's expecting a good report. And if you see them start talking about consumers pulling back a little bit, then you might get a little bit more of a red flag on some of the staples and some of the discretionary, for sure. So let's just go back to something and talk about earnings for a minute.

48:11and earnings season, these double-digit doubles in the 20s and growth and all that. There's a good amount of that baked into those numbers when you look at the index level, market cap-based, that are from the big boys, right? If you extract out all those, you still have good numbers, right? There's no question about that because you have a trickle down. But a lot of this has been something I have talked about at Nauseam, by the way. the circular financing and the vendor financing and the idea that they basically, what happened is the hundreds of billions of dollars that we had on balance sheets for a long period of time, the cash cow concept with Google and Apple, name who you want, Facebook, it doesn't matter, you know, Berkshire, all these companies, right?

48:56The major tech companies basically did this. They took, and I can give you further, but I'm just gonna give you the big picture from what I saw, a lot of the money off of their balance sheet and put it into their income statement through circular financing of companies that would actually go and give them money back when they finance them. So you have company ABC that needs cloud storage space. What they did with Microsoft is they said, hey, you know what, I'm gonna give you$20 billion or whatever the number is to actually work in your company, but you're gonna sign a 10-year agreement with me to buy back on the Azure X amount of space, of storage space, and maybe even compute from other companies.

49:36What's your thoughts on that? Well, that's obviously one of the bigger risks for the AI story. Luckily for the markets, the two biggest drivers of that, you know, open AI is private, Anthropics private. So, you know, there's lots of speculation about revenue growth there and whether or not, you know, you see the stories around China potentially undercutting some of the token costs that are going on out there. So luckily for the industry, they're not public because then people would probably be able to put some of the real numbers together and be like, how are they going to finance it? You see it in Oracle.

50:14I was going to say Oracle. Oracle is a canary in the coal mine for this, right? Yeah. But, you know, I feel like a lot of that's been pulled back in. I mean, look at Oracle's stock price. It's back down to$135. More than the announcement when OpenAI came out with that$12 ,000,$12 ,000, they're giving them whatever it was. Yeah, right. Big number, big number, lots of commas. But I mean, so yeah, I mean, obviously that's the key. You're looking for ground zero on what could kind of implode this rally. That would be it without a doubt, you know, because then you'd have all of a sudden all that money that NVIDIA and the circular financing has been doing pulling back in.

50:52And I mean, so, but right now the numbers have been real. You know, Micron, of course, pull away expectations. Unbelievable. Samsung was on a 19-fold increase. Micron, some ridiculous number. Stock up 1 ,200 % in the last however long. But you've spent years and years studying earnings reports, conference calls, and things of that nature. I'm going to throw a couple things out to you. Sure. When you have a commentary that shows certain phrases, certain buzzwords, they always catch my attention like constant currency. I'm like, uh-oh, what's that? You know, when they talk about constant currency numbers, they start all of a sudden, and it doesn't happen for one company.

51:37One company does it and then the rest start doing it, right? You hear the word like framework when they talk about a deal being done. I'm like, oh, it's a framework. It's nothing. What is a framework, right? Constant currency. You hear that. You hear that it is, some companies will do EBITDA versus straight EPS. Some companies will have X special items. What buzzwords kind of hit you when you start hearing some of the conference calls out there and that concerns you? In the current environment? You know, in other words, if you hear a conference call, every time I hear the word constant currency in a conference call, I'm like, oh, oh, what is that?

52:20I mean, they're never announcing it when it's a tailwind. Never. I mean, have you ever heard weather be a tailwind for any retailer? No, beautiful weather. A lot more people came out. No, no, no. It was execution. It was execution. The management executed well. Yeah, they had the sun. Because it was sunny. Exactly. So I mean, this time, so what I'll be listening to a lot, I'd listen to a ton of calls. And, you know, with AI, it's great now, too, because you could just grab a conference call transcript and just kind of put in different, you know, set it up for look for these buzzwords. And the buzzwords that I'm free cash flow is going to be the one that I'm looking at real close this time.

53:07Obviously, that's where a lot of the traders are watching pretty closely. You see that with the hyperscalers where they went from asset light to all of a sudden a heavy asset company. So free cash flow and margins are going to be the key thing to watch here. That's why you saw Pepsi kind of react the way that they did. Their operating margins were actually better than expected, but it's the forward outlook for these margins that there's some concerns about. Free cash flow and the tech companies are going to be the big one because they're going to go from – they have to go from here to way down.

53:39Oh, yeah. There's no question. I'll shoot it over to you after it. There was a chart today. It was Morgan Stanley that showed the cash flow of hyperscalers to semiconductors. And it's just an inverted parabolic move from where it had been going over the last couple of years. It's just amazing when you see it in an actual chart. And I mean, that's obviously the big story on the backdrop of the markets, But now, luckily enough for a lot of these hyperscalers, they got the revenue to back it up. Clearly. They do. For now, the question is, how is that going to go? All right. Well, I mean, I think it's going to be really interesting to see what happens here.

54:20But I agree with you 100%. This whole issue of free cash flow is going to be a big one. Margins, again, they'll probably start throwing gross out at us rather than net. Who knows how they do this? Yeah. Yeah, that's exactly what they'll try to do. A little financial engineering or signal engineering, I guess we could call it on a conference call. Yeah, on a conference call, they'll do that. You know, we had a great gross – really? Okay, good. What did you take out? You know, what are you not including there somehow, you know? Yeah, you know, tariffs or oil and – Well, that would be another thing.

54:52Nike said they're going to have another$950 million they were expecting from tariffs, but who knows what the timing and when that's going to come. It was just like a – they just like threw this out there out of nowhere. It's like, what? What? That's a perfect example of cutting through the noise when all of a sudden they beat by 60 cents on the bottom line. You're like, well, what happened there? Is this turnaround plan starting to come in? And you go in and be like, well, it included in a, I don't know, a 750 million benefit from IEPA refunds and everything. So, yeah. So, I mean, I'm not expecting tariffs to be a major story this quarter by any stretch of the imagination.

55:27But certainly oil prices, right? And you'll get people trying to be dismissive of them. And I'll be curious because the linearity of oil throughout this quarter has been lower. So I'm really curious to see how people address that, especially with forward-looking guidance. You know, one of the things I look at, I'll close on this earnings issue. One of the things I always look at is when we have numbers that come out that are weak towards the end of this quarter or strong, depending on how you want to look at it. And then we look back what they had estimated where we are, and it shows that the potential is for a major drop-off.

56:00Like, in other words, you could see by the where they are, what happened to the quarter on a month, if they share any information on like retail on a shorter term basis. And then they do an estimate of the year. It's like, wait a minute, you're putting this number down and, you know, you have like a 60 cent beat this quarter, but you're not changing your annual. What happened there? That means that that's a potential real red flag for next quarter. That's a concern. Now, it is the company's business to kind of sand back a little bit and lower those expectations. That's why you generally see over the course of a quarter downgrading their estimates.

56:37On average, earnings per share get downgraded about 2 % to 3 % from the end of one quarter to the start of the other. This time around, it's a little different. Majorly different, right? March 31st to current day, they're up 3.4%, which is a big swing from the normal process that we see of people sandbagging and lowering those expectations. And it's the game that's played with the analysts and the companies. They want to be in their good graces. They want to give them a lower bar to beat. Not a low bar this time around, and that's what's going to make this. Now, I think that they'll beat it or they'll at least meet it.

57:14But as we've seen, if you come in line against high expectations, your stock's going to be down 5 % to 10%. Yep. And they'll try to buy it, by the way. And then they'll try to buy it back that morning because nothing could stay down. Here's my closing question for you. And, of course, people can go over to briefing.com and check out all the different things that are available on that. Go over to the disciplineinvestor.com. We'll put some links in there as well for the episode number 981. So here's a question. What chart, maybe a chart, what chart, I guess that's a good start of this, is sitting on your desk every day that investors should see?

57:56Like, what are you looking, what's like, I need to have that. If I don't see that, I can't start my day. Goes along with my coffee. 41M. 41M? 41M. Oh, 41M. I'm like 41M. Core 1M. So that's basically the measure by the CBOE of individual options, individual stocks being traded in options versus the index options. Right now, we're at an extreme level at the moment. I didn't check in the last couple of minutes here, but it was running right around five or six. Anything above eights at an extreme level. And it's to your point where we basically have a solid base for the SPX right now. But there's that little bubble up above it that's causing that volatility that we see where we're down 1%, up 1 % one day.

58:47And that core 1M, what it does is it measures how many people are leveraged in these individual stocks, primarily names like Micron and things like that. And I'm keeping an eye out on that because right now that tells me that there's going to be a lot of chop and volatility at the high end of the markets. But we're staying, what, within 2 % to 3 % of the all-time highs, which is fine. If we start seeing that pulling back a lot, then I'm going to be real curious to see, is that going to just kind of blow the froth off the top of the beer and you'll still have that good beer there to drink and everything?

59:24Or was it a bad pour and there was just way too much froth in that beer, right? And you got half a beer there and all of a sudden you're like, oh, I want my money back, right? Exactly. The money out. So that's the one chart that I'm watching. I know it's not a popular chart to follow, but for me, in terms of trying to understand where the volatility is and where the leverage is and where the risk is, I like following that a lot over the last couple of weeks because options activities just become such a key driver on a day to day basis. I want to kind of see through that noise and understand where the base of things stand right now.

1:00:02And we're not seeing panic by any stretch of the imagination. It's the, the potentials there given the leverage, but that would be the one, that would be the one thing that I'm keeping a close eye on. We're not seeing extremes in other areas in terms of sentiment for sure. Of course, sentiment's been that way for years now. Bitter's the new black on the sentiment data. Right. And, and then positioning it's, it's high, but it's not at extreme levels where you're like, oh, I need to take my money out. Cash levels as well. So for now, I just see a choppy market near the top. We'll see how earnings unfolds.

1:00:38And obviously, the price reaction to a lot of these earnings, that's going to be a key tell. But as long as the earnings stay strong, the market should stay there. And therefore, you know, the buy the dip mentality needs to kind of continue to be in play. We'll see that. But you also don't have to chase at this point. Yeah, clearly not. Gavin McGuire, briefing.com, a load of information, a wealth of knowledge. I appreciate it. and I'm looking forward to talking to you soon. Appreciate you having me on, Andrew. All right, we'll talk soon. Yeah, definitely. Thank you so much. Thanks. Gavin McGuire, great stuff.

1:01:09First time on the show. We've had a briefing on for years. I've told you all about it, why I love him. Hey, I want to remind you, we talked about it before we got to Gavin, but again, if you have a situation where you were kicked out, you were just kicked to the curb by Microsoft or Amazon or Meta or any of these other major firms and you have some questions on what to do next with some of the benefits packages and where you're going, We're here for that. We do a lot of that, and that's something we, I would say, specialize in. So make sure to go over to thedisciplinedinvestor.com. Click on the button that says Ask Andrew or Contact Us or something.

1:01:45Figure a way somehow to get in touch with us, and we'll make sure that you are set and in good shape. With that, we're going to wish you a bid you adieu. Next week coming up is Tom McClellan, the master at cycles and indicators. and understanding what's happening with markets. So make sure to stay tuned with that. Go over to YouTube, Amazon, Apple, Spotify, wherever you can find the podcast, you'll find us. Thanks for joining me again this week and every week. Don't forget Horowitz & Company is our new Instagram account. We're going to be posting some snippets. You can see what we look like, how we do it, what we're doing from the show and other things.

1:02:21So make sure to do that on a regular basis. Horowitz & Company on Instagram. Sign up for that, follow us and do your thing. I'll speak to you soon. Thanks so much.

1:02:37This podcast is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principle and past performance is not indicative of future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of the host and any guests and may not necessarily reflect those of Horowitz and Company Inc., an investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of training or skill. Advisory services are only offered to a client or prospective clients where Horowitz and Company is properly registered or is excluded from registration requirements.

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1:04:05We'll be right back.

From the publisher

War is back on – Oil on the rise.

Some are saying AI trade has peaked – I have some thoughts on that.

Earnings season is just days away.

We will talk about that with our guest –  Gavin Maguire, Senior Analyst at Briefing.com.

NEW! DOWNLOAD THE AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment)

Gavin has more than 20 years of market experience with Briefing.com, contributing real-time commentary to the Live In Play page and helping monitor market-moving news, rumors, economic data, earnings reports, geopolitical developments, and broader macro events that shape investor sentiment and market direction.

For Briefing Trader subscribers, Gavin provides daily trading and investment ideas under the EVENT custom ticker, with a focus on day trades in the major indices, including the S&P 500, along with select longer-duration opportunities in ETFs and individual stocks.

In addition, Gavin hosts The Sentiment & Flow Show on Briefing.com’s Trader Audio, where he examines market structure, options flow, positioning, and investor sentiment to provide a top-down view of current market trends and identify where markets may be headed next. The show combines technical analysis, options activity, macroeconomic developments, and institutional positioning to help traders better understand the forces driving price action. He graduated from the University of Scranton in Pennsylvania and is based in North Carolina.

Check Out Briefing.com (Free Trial)

Follow @andrewhorowitz

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE

Stocks mentioned in this episode: (GLD), (ORCL), (META), (SPY), (NKE), (GOOGL), (BKRB)

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