Made in Russia: The Kremlin’s economic rebrand

4 Dec 2025 · 35 min

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The Documentary Podcast: Episode Summary

Episode Title

Made in Russia: The Kremlin’s Economic Rebrand Podcast Description This episode explores how Russia is adapting its economy in response to international sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. It examines the promotion of domestic brands, the shift in consumer habits, and whether Russia can sustain its war effort over the long term.

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Key Themes and Discussions

  1. Patriotic Consumption and Branding
  2. "Buy Russian" Campaign:
  3. Initiated by President Putin as part of a patriotic consumption drive.
  4. Aims to bolster national identity amid foreign sanctions.
  5. Cultural vs. Economic Factors:
  6. While cultural identity can be molded, the economy is dictated by market forces.
  7. Everyday consumer choices are still influenced by availability and quality.
  1. Impact of Sanctions on the Economy
  2. Shift in Consumer Behavior:
  3. With Western companies withdrawing, Russians turned to grey markets to acquire foreign products.
  4. Brands like McDonald’s and Coca-Cola have been replaced by localized versions (e.g., "вкусные точки" for McDonald's).
  5. Government Support for Local Brands:
  6. Efforts to promote Russian heritage through grants, but consumer demand remains lukewarm.
  7. Domestic production struggles with high costs and low quality.
  1. Challenges with Self-Sufficiency
  2. Reality of Production:
  3. Russia’s manufacturing base is weak, making complex goods more expensive to produce domestically than to import.
  4. Media Narratives:
  5. State media promotes self-sufficiency while acknowledging continued reliance on foreign goods and services.
  6. "Import-o-zameşenie" (replacement of imports) is a prevalent theme in official rhetoric.
  1. Emergence of Grey Markets and Alternatives
  2. Western Brands in Disguise:
  3. Old brands are being resold under new Russian names, often with little change in product.
  4. Example: Coca-Cola becomes "Dobrikola" but retains similar branding.
  5. Chinese Influence:
  6. China has become a key partner, supplying goods under Russian brands to avoid scrutiny.
  7. The partnership is portrayed as mutually beneficial but masks a reliance on Chinese technology and products.
  1. Economic Viability of the War Effort
  2. Current Economic State:
  3. Despite sanctions, Russia finds ways to continue exporting energy, albeit at reduced prices.
  4. The economy initially shrank but then grew due to military spending.
  5. Future Concerns:
  6. Analysts question the sustainability of Russia’s military expenditures in the face of economic challenges.
  7. Potential for stagflation looms, impacting consumer sentiment and political stability.
  1. Consumer Insights
  2. Diverse Purchasing Power:
  3. The middle class feels the pinch due to rising prices and fewer brand choices, leading to a preference for domestic alternatives.
  4. Wealthier Russians still have access to luxury goods, maintaining their sophisticated consumer habits.

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Key Takeaways

  • Domestic Branding vs. Globalization: The Kremlin’s push for self-sufficiency is complicated by consumer preferences for quality and established brands.
  • Geopolitical Dynamics: The partnership with China is pivotal for Russia, albeit one that creates a narrative of equality rather than dependency.
  • Sustainability of Military Financing: The ongoing war effort remains feasible as long as Russia can maintain energy revenues, but internal economic pressures may eventually force a change in strategy.

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Conclusion The episode presents a nuanced view of Russia's efforts to navigate economic sanctions through patriotic branding and self-sufficiency initiatives. While the Kremlin aims for a rebranded economy, the reality of consumer preferences and global market dynamics poses significant challenges. The question remains whether the Russian economy can sustain its current trajectory amid growing internal and external pressures.

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Transcript

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0:00This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK.

0:30to make those markets work for you. Follow Merrin Talks Money on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.

0:44There's no shortage of buy local slogans from around the world to bolster national economies, reduce imports, or simply to promote sustainability. Not surprisingly, Russia, a country facing international sanctions, has its own patriotic consumption drive, elevating the status of the Made in Russia label.

1:09President Putin stands firmly behind the slogan POKUPAI RUSSKEY or BUY RUSSIAN and the passion for Russian has fired up plenty of followers. For Russia! Buy Russian phones and iPhones!

1:49In our previous episode, we explored a concept of national identity embraced by the Kremlin, the so-called Russian Cultural Code, and its emblem, the traditional Kokoshnik headdress. But the economy is less pliable than culture, where censorship rules. Here, market forces have the final say. Russians can buy anything they want, and they do. You might not be able to procure American tomahawks, but if you're in Moscow, you can get the Louis Vuitton bank or a Chanel bank or cars like Rolls Royce. The push for domestic spending has been infused with patriotic ideology. It's in defiance of international sanctions that were imposed after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

2:39Everyone's suffering from labor shortages, there's not really any slack to be picked up. It could be that next year is the year that the wheels finally come off the militarized economy and there's no more juice to be squeezed out of it by reordering it. After Western companies retreated as Moscow attacked Ukraine, the Russian economy began to shift. We explore how international sanctions reshaped production cycles and consumer habits, and we ask the million-dollar question, can Russia sustain its war effort indefinitely?

3:20Welcome to the documentary from the BBC World Service. I'm Krassi Ivanova-Twig, and this is the global jigsaw from BBC Monitoring, where we look at the world through the lens of its media, exploring the narratives, the propaganda and the disinformation. Radio Tehran. We were not on the territory of Ukraine. Western countries are not the international community. That era has finished.

3:51The international community's condemnation of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine compelled many Western brands into retreat. Our military and economy expert Tim Bowler was tracking the moves of foreign companies in Russia's new reality. The most obvious example is that McDonald's, Coca-Cola, they stopped selling or making goods in Russia in 2022. And they recently said that neither of them have any plans to return to business.

4:27It was very good PR for them because they were under a great deal of pressure from shareholders to pull out. So they've been able to say, ha-ha, we're good guys here. We're not doing business in Russia. The last day of McDonald's was marked on state TV too, including reports about traffic jams around driving stores in Moscow.

4:51The withdrawal of Western brands didn't stop Russian consumers from buying those goods. It just meant they started getting them from grey market resellers. To give us the story from the inside is Yevgeny Pudovkin, who works in our Russia team in Tbilisi. You can still see plenty of familiar Western mass-market clothing brands being worn by the Russians, So H &M and Zara, some of these brands are supplied through intermediaries directly to Russia, so consumers can buy it with a markup. And this stuff costs you like maybe 30 % more because you have to pay some intermediary. Logistics have become more expensive.

5:30Transactions have become more expensive. It's all taking a toll on the Russian economy. Many Russians do their shopping while traveling abroad, often to nearby places like Belarus or Kazakhstan, where Western brands are still present. As the prices for imported goods climbed up, the Russian government began to steer consumers towards made-in-Russia labels. Government supports the Russian brands through fostering a so-called patriotic consumption.

6:02The Russian government offers grants and subsidies for projects that celebrate Russian heritage, like historical movies, folk festivals, what have you. Or even it may support brands of clothing that produce like a suvorotka, which is traditional male garments or kokoshniks. But this hasn't really translated into big consumer demand because the Russians, they just don't want things just because they're Russian. They have to be high quality. And the second constraint is purely economic. Russia's manufacturing base, at least as far as the civilian production is concerned, remains weak and domestic production costs are high.

6:42So in a nutshell, making complex things inside Russia often turns out to be more expensive than just importing those complex goods from abroad. How is the media treating this idea that Russia can be self-sufficient? How does it promote patriotic brand consumption? Given the reality of the market, force is still gravitating towards Western brands. Basically, it's been the same story since 2014. And the key leitmotiv is that Russia is moving towards self-sufficiency.

7:18In a few years' time, Russian software makers can replace Western companies, but Western companies' software is still being used in Russia. State TV and the officials, they urge Russian companies to step up. They urge them to produce more. They urge them to make an effort.

7:40Russian companies have been successful in replacing Western goods and services in some parts of the economy. But the high-tech goods that Russia used to purchase from the West and from China in 2010, it is still buying those goods in 2025. And the speeches that officials make and that are being amplified by state TV channels, this is mostly used as a propaganda. And there's another phrase in circulation that's got presidential approval. Import-o-zameşenie, or replacement of imports.

8:23As a signal that, look, yes, there is the sanctions, and yes, there is this isolation from the West, but we can go it alone. We have partners in different parts of the world, and we can substitute all this Western stuff with our own or the stuff from our partners. The pivot towards self-sufficiency hasn't lived up to expectations. But for the sake of optics, at least, there's been a noticeable effort at diversification of the market, something we decided to call a retail rebrand. It's actually been quite extensive. Everything from clothing to cars to restaurants has been rebranded.

9:05And even computers and laptops that Russians use, these are assembled in Russia from foreign imported components, but they're sold under local brands. They just assemble these PCs or laptops out of Chinese components, for example. And some big companies that have government connections have this obligation to purchase this Russian-branded tag. They are taking off, but it's not omnipresent. Russia couldn't realistically replace the branding on smartphones, for example, so people still use iPhones and Xiaomi's. What happened to those Western companies that had to leave in a hurry? You know, brands like McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Starbucks?

9:47Basically what happened is that Russian businessmen took over those Western assets and put them into use. McDonald's became вкусные точки, which means tasty, that's it. And Coca-Cola turned into Dobrikola, or to translate it, kind cola. But actually, if you look closely at those new brands, not much has actually changed beyond their naming. Dobrikola logo still looks almost identical to the old traditional Coca-Cola. So it's the same red label, same white script. And at вкусные точки, you can still get something called a big special. It is basically the Russian copy of the Big Mac. The Starbucks logo, they changed it from the kind of Western-looked woman in Kokosnik.

10:36And this traditional values segment in Russian branding, it does exist. So there's brands that play on folk symbols, on Soviet nostalgia. What's behind this mimicry? Is it lack of imagination on behalf of Russian businesses, or is there something more to this? The Russian owners, they understand that the majority of Russian consumers, they grew up in a global kind of market-driven economy, and they've used these Western standards. They're still on Instagram, they're still watching Hollywood movies, and they don't want to downgrade their consumer habits. So if these new Russian owners stick with the same old recipe, the aesthetics of these new Russian brands, they correspond to the old style that the Western companies created.

11:20The majority of Russian consumers may be too young to remember the Soviet days of self-sufficiency, but some of us do. The team making this podcast grew up on the wrong side of the Iron Curtain, or at least that's how we saw it. Christine Hungary, I in Bulgaria. We occasionally compare notes on what we had and didn't have. Nivea cream, what everyone had. The little metal, the flat metal one. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I remember like once a year, a small bottle of Nutella from the West. And that was my Nutella for a year. Like teeny tiny spoonfuls from time to time. You had to ration it. Absolutely. I remember for Christmas, the best thing I was waiting for Christmas was a Toblerone.

12:05And I was just so much better than a bicalche. But talking of Christmas, of course, the smell of Christmas was the satsumas. We call them mandarins. And the bananas, the very few times or maybe the only time of the year. The only time of the year. I loved bananas because they would only come in the winter. And we actually thought they only grow in the winter. I was surprised you can find them any time of the year. What about clothes? Oh, jeans, getting your hands on a pair of jeans. I mean, we had them because we were the jolliest barrack, as we were called. Everything was the same. The clothes just weren't very interesting.

12:44I remember the winter season started and then if you walk into a shop and then you had 40 of this and 35 of that and that was it. And you chose either this or that and there was not much else. Yeah, not much choice at all. I remember mum was telling me that when she was in high school, This must have been late 60s. Her father used to travel on an oil tanker and he brought her a pair of boots from Italy. They were beautiful burgundy boots. And she dared to wear them at school one day and promptly was turned away and told to go back and change into her bad shoes. Speaking of burgundy shoes, on my very first trip to Russia, I actually wore a pair of red boots.

13:28and I was stopped every step of the way and people wanted to buy a bite off my feet. The Soviet Union was tougher than us. Another reminder of how ancient we are. The era of communism and bad shoes was replaced by the influx of those coveted Western goods. But 30-odd years later, many Russian consumers are now facing a new deficit of choice. Can Russia really become self-sufficient again? You cannot put this genie back in the bottle because once the Russians have acquired this taste for firms, for goods, you can't really kind of shut down the country completely. Okay, tomorrow you will have just one brand, like it used to be the case in the USes.

14:12No, this is not going to cut it. This now will cause some consternation among the public. Russians can still travel. They can still bring stuff from other countries, basically unimpeded. When you look at the situation from the point of view of the Russian companies, you still have to compete with Western, with Asian brands for the Russian market. The consumers, they're still in sync with the global trends. They're not shut down in this kind of Russian environment and getting high on like Kokoschnik and Borscht and whatever. You gave me a giggle there with getting high on kokoshniks and borscht.

14:49But let's stay with consumers for a moment who are clearly voting with their wallets. Where do they shop? These changes that we see on the Russian markets, they have mostly affected the middle segment of the market. Because if you look at population who are just basically trying to make their ends meet, They used to buy no-branded stuff from Turkey or from China, and they're still available. They don't hunt for Louis Vuitton bags. They don't care about brands. They don't actually much care about fashion. And also, if you look at the Russian rich, their consumer habits haven't changed a bit because they still have access to Western cars, to Western clothing as well.

15:36you might not be able to procure American tomahawks or any industrial defense gear, of course. But if you're in Moscow and you have a few thousand dollars, you can get the delivery of Louis Vuitton Bank or Chanel Bank or whatever you want. The same goes for cars like Rolls-Royce. They'll get it delivered to you probably via countries like Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan. The president himself seems to have a taste for Western luxury.

16:08One puffer jacket he sported at a big Provo rally a couple of years ago earned him scorned by the tabloid press abroad. The jacket was said to be worth more than$10 ,000. The middle segment is where all the changes are noticeable. Someone who is a middle-class Russian, he sees, for example, H &M, which now costs maybe 50 % more, and he sees all these emerging Russian companies who try to kind of mimic Western-style brands, and they look stylish. Lots of Russians, they say, well, why would I pay more if I can get these new Russian-branded things? They're still quite good. And Russian jewelry producers, Russian fashion designers, they actually exist in this.

16:53And these companies see their sales go up, definitely. Linked up on TV with a regional governor recently, the president inquired about the origin of his suit and appeared satisfied when he got the right answer. Of course, all of it is Russian-made.

17:13Russia is a country of vast natural and human resources. What does it produce on its own besides suits for politicians? Russia is already producing petrochemicals, it is producing cars, it is producing agricultural goods, it can basically feed its population.

17:38And it actually can produce some basic complex goods like airplanes, which few countries can. What Russia tries to do is to specialize in particular things like energy, like petrochemicals, like agriculture, right? And it tries to invest its money strategically. It concentrates on several industries. It does that because of the experience of the Soviet Union. It produced everything in-house, but at a very poor quality. Russian companies have shown themselves to be nimble in order to attract customers. But let's turn our attention to those Western companies who had to abandon their assets in Russia for little or no compensation for no fault of their own.

18:24It has not really had much of an effect on their bottom line because Russia was not a huge market for them. The one company that's different is Pepsi. Pepsi was always much more invested in Russia than its rival Coca-Cola. It employs around 60 ,000 workers in Russia. Pepsi also announced about the exit from the Russian market. Now, Pepsi's been able to say, well, we're stopping making branded soft drinks in Russia. But those factories are still producing soft drinks. They've just been called other names, Everest and Fruestyle, for the Russian market. So for Pepsi, it's been a much more difficult decision because, of course, if you pull out of Russia, then you face punitive charges in leaving because the Russians aren't letting Western firms pull out scot-free.

19:18You have to sell off your assets at fire sale levels so you lose money. Starbucks had 130 coffee shops across Russia. It basically said, OK, we'll ditch them. But it didn't cost it that much money. For Pepsi, it would have been a much, much more significant loss.

19:39I've spent the last three decades trying to better understand money across the boardroom, the newsroom, and the trading floor. That's longer than most podcast hosts have been alive. But even though I've got questions, join me, Merrin's subset web, every week for my show Merrin Talks Money from Bloomberg Podcasts, where I have in-depth conversations with fund managers, strategists, and experts about how markets really work. And join me for a separate episode where I answer listener questions and how to make those markets work for you. Follow Merrin Talks Money on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.

20:12You're listening to the documentary from the BBC World Service. The departure of Western companies left more space for others to step into. And here comes a country that stands out for its support. China.

20:31For example, if you look at woodworking machinery, the large part of this market was occupied by Europe. Now it's almost exclusively China. Chinese cars are making up about half of the sales on the Russian market, which is huge, and which is the share that the Western cars used to have. Another kind of interesting layer to this whole rebranding story is linked to sanctions, because Russia still doesn't have the technology to make high-end products. But here is the thing. Chinese companies, they don't want to attract too much Western scrutiny or to risk secondary sanctions. They sell Chinese cars under Russian brand names.

21:16Think Lada, Volga, Moskvich. These are old names, but now they come with a new twist. One example is Moskvich. On paper, it's Russian traditional car, but in reality, its components are being sourced from China. This is a kind of workaround that allows Chinese firms not to attract too much attention and thereby reduce their chances of being sanctioned by the West. Another part of the story is that Russian firms also sometimes legally import Chinese equipment and then slap the Russian label onto it to create the impression that Russia can produce its own stuff domestically. This message plays very well with the government that wants to show that Russia is self-sufficient in the face of international isolation.

22:05Yeah, you can see it being mentioned in the media where some company just buys Chinese stuff and tries to portray it as its own production to kind of get credibility and to get recognition and possibly some financial rewards from the government. How is the media treating China, propping up the Russian economy? And how is that being talked about? Because this jars with the idea of Russian superiority, whether it's moral or otherwise, with the idea of the big brother saving Russia. That's a country in need. And both of them want to lead the global south. So what's this relationship like in the eyes of the Russian media?

22:44They portrayed as a friendship and as a partnership of equals. Of course, Russia doesn't want to mention that China is a bigger partner and is a bigger economy. What Russian TV and Russian officials are saying is that this partnership doesn't have any political strings attached.

23:10It's a win-win for everyone, and it is strictly business. On top of that, there is some thin political layer which is saying, look, China, like Russia, it has some grievances with the U.S. sanctions, with the U.S. heavy-handed approach to political issues and to economic, to trade issues. Russia and China have same interests. It's not just Russia who is kind of isolated and this mad Russian bear who just goes around and takes another country's territories. No, look, it's not just Russia. It's China, it's Brazil. Nobody is pleased with what the US is doing and we have these partners and we're cooperating with them and everything is good.

24:00We have the second largest economy who wants to trade with us. And we have all these economies across the world who still want to have good relations with Russia.

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24:14So that's the spin they're putting on it. And they don't so much emphasize China's role as a savior of Russia. They want to present this Russia-China partnership as being able and being willing to support each other. State media in Russia reflects the official line and has an upbeat tone of defiance in the face of tough challenges. But you also find sobering takes on the state of the economy. The BBC's Russia editor Steve Rosenberg picked up on a few gloomy newspaper reports a couple of weeks ago, starting with Moskovsky Komsomolets. The Russian car market is on the way to becoming like Cuba or the USSR.

24:55The average price of a new car in Russia has reached 3.43 million rubles. That's around 42 ,000 US dollars. An absolute record. The pool of cars in the country is ageing, like in Cuba after the break in relations with America. The rising price of coffee is also making headlines here with this prediction. Soon, Russians will go back to the kind of cheap coffee substitutes from Soviet times. For example, chicory or a coffee drink made out of rye. Kommersant, air freight companies see a risk of aircraft being grounded and companies leaving the market.

25:36You are listening to The Global Jigsaw from BBC Monitoring. Let's address the elephant in the room. If you ask Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the only thing that could bring Russia to its knees and onto the path of peace is hard-hitting sanctions. The sanctions that matter are those targeting Russian oil and gas, by far the biggest earner for the country. Russia cannot sell its oil and gas to Europe, so it has to send it a longer way to China and to India. The revenue that Russia gets from oil and gas sales abroad took a hit, obviously. Despite some sanctions, Russia found a way to continue exporting its energy resources, albeit at a lower price.

26:25But now this might have come under threat with the introduction of a new round of sanctions in October, explicitly against energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil.

26:39It's too early to say whether this will be a game changer, but it's not looking good for Russia. They're targeting Russia's two biggest energy firms that export three million barrels of oil a day. Rosnet alone is producing nearly half of Russian oil, makes up about 6 % of global output. We're beginning to see some effect. India and China, which up until now have been buying Russian oil and gas products, are beginning to think, well, we too could suffer from sanctions if we are excluded from the SWIFT banking system, which in effect the US controls. That would have huge consequences for our own economy.

27:23India is already under pressure from the US with tariffs, some which have been imposed because of its purchases of Russian energy. If that's cut off, then Russia will have a serious problem. The latest sanctions have also put a spotlight on the shadow fleet that transports Russian oil to willing buyers. The first thing Russia did when one was declared was they bought up lots of very old oil tankers, several hundred of them. Tankers that Western firms probably wouldn't use, they are underinsured, they're not looked after very well. And Russia's been using these through middlemen, through shady ownerships to in effect sell oil around the globe.

28:05Many or most are floating rust buckets. The Shadow Fleet is an accident waiting to happen. The reaction is as strong as it can be according to the rule-based order. But the EU is now targeting specifically at least 117 of these tankers. That's been a very successful way Russia has been able to counter the effects of sanctions. But right now we're seeing a sea change, if you'll forgive the pun. Moscow's wealth has largely been fuelled by the energy giants. Foreign oil companies too were deep in that mix for decades in far-flung corners of Russia. Energy companies accept a higher risk because they have to go where the resources are.

28:48And often they're in places where you might have undemocratic regimes or unsolable regimes. So let's look at BP, for instance. BP had a huge stake in the Russian oil giant, Rosneft, the combination of three decades of operating in Russia. and Rosneft accounted for around half of BP's oil and gas reserves and a third of its production. When BP pulled out and basically abandoned its stake, it cost it some$25 billion. That's a huge hit on your bottom line. However, put that in context, we saw surges in global energy prices that supercharge BP's profits. And in 2022, they were the highest ever in its corporate history at$27 billion.

29:38So even though BP had a huge hit, because of the movement of oil prices, gas prices, they were able to ride it out. If we look at the biggest five listed oil companies in the world, they've made profits of more than$380 billion since the invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent rise in energy bills. The big five's profits jumped 125 % the year Russia invaded Ukraine. These eye-watering profits did not go down well with some Western consumers. What we saw on the back of those profits with public outrage over what many saw as wartime profiteering, ultimately, of course, it's the consumers in those countries that ended up paying.

30:26Many European governments have been very loath to fully implement sanctions on oil or gas because they are worried about the negative impact of that on their own economies. In Europe, of course, Hungary, Slovakia are the two obvious examples of countries that have said, no, our economies can't afford not to have Russian energy. And in many cases, other countries have been similarly very careful about cutting off their nose to spite their face, because the cost to their own domestic economy could be too high. And the Russians know this. Here's President Putin spelling it out.

31:11Let us imagine the worst nightmare, that the Russian oil production is squeezed out of the world market. the prices will get sky high immediately. Is this in the interest of those countries that are already unwell? Are they going to look for trouble? The West has failed to send the Russian economy in a knockout with one punch. What the West is doing is basically eroding the profits that Russian energy companies are making. The sanctions have had a limited effect for a variety of reasons. Russia reorganised its economy to serve the war, which has created demand for weapons, and that has fuelled economic growth.

31:56In the first year of the war, Russia's economy shrank by a couple of percent. But then the economy actually grew as the Kremlin restructured the economy around military production. And there was this huge state demand for equipment, tanks, shells, guns. so the economy grew by 3.5 % in 23 and 4 % in 24 due to all this state spending. Despite that, sanctions have had damage to the economy. I mean, the central bank put up interest rates. They peaked at 21 % last year. They're now down to around 16%. The bank's having to juggle trying to control inflation and not strangle the economy. Everyone's suffering from labour shortages.

32:42there's not really any slack to be picked up. It could be that next year is the year that the wheels finally come off the militarised economy and there's no more juice to be squeezed out of it by reordering it. Despite the initial sanctions, the economy was revitalised thanks to the war machine. But this story is not yet over. Revenue from oil and gas dropped by one-fifth so far this year, according to official data quoted by the Kommersant newspaper. And this is before the latest sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil came into effect. So the question on everyone's lips is, how long can Russia keep the war effort going?

33:25Can Russia sustain its war effort indefinitely? The answer is yes, because Russia still sells enough energy to make a hefty profit. The Russian economy haven't taken a kit that would bring the whole facade of the economy down. That's not even remotely the case. The money that Russia sends to war are still below 10 % of its GDP, which compares to about 40 % of the GDP that Ukraine spends to war. Of course, this war is hurting Russian economy. It is bleeding, but the damage is not catastrophic. In a nutshell, things are bad, but they're not bad enough to make Russia stop. That's the Kremlin's bet, that it can have a forever war.

34:08And it may be that it will be able to juggle the competing pressures of inflation and a lack of excess and a lack of workers to... But it's also quite possible that next year is a year that the economy sinks into stagflation. Inflation remains high, and that means having high interest rates, but those choke off economic growth because it's too expensive to borrow and invest. When you erode this surplus that Russia is getting with its energy trade, if the damage will be felt across different sectors, will be felt by the population, that will make Russia reconsider its foreign policy. you may have a chance of Russian leadership being worked down by these expenses and to some extent becoming more pliable to negotiations.

35:05Because unlike Ukraine, this war for Russia is not existential, even though its leadership says it is.

35:16This is the documentary from the BBC World Service. Thank you to our experts Evgeny Pudovkin and Tim Bowler. Sound Mix was by Nigel Dix The production team, Krista Shattery And me, Krasiva Novatweak And if you found this episode interesting Check out our back catalogue We have many other episodes on Russia specifically But also covering many other parts of the world

35:50I've spent the last three decades trying to better understand money across the boardroom, the newsroom and the trading floor. That's longer than most podcast hosts have been alive. But even though I've got questions, join me, Merrin's Upset Web, every week for my show, Merrin Talks Money from Bloomberg Podcasts, where I have in-depth conversations with fund managers, strategists and experts about how markets really work. And join me for a separate episode where I answer listener questions on how to make those markets work for you. Follow Merrin Talks Money on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen.

From the publisher

How Moscow is working around international sanctions: promoting self-sustainability, elevating Russian brands and deepening trade with friendly countries. After Western companies retreated as the full-scale invasion of Ukraine started, Russian consumer habits and the economy began to shift. We explore how sanctions reshaped everyday life and ask the million-dollar question: can Russia sustain a forever war?

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