Ep 635: "Sit With the Panic": Meta Volatility, Pausing Ads, and AI Cognitive Debt with Pilothouse (After Hours)

19:08but it's i i would say like our stance on it is really uh make an informed decision so like if you need to take the extra 5 10 15 minutes to go and look at how has that ad been trending over time what are you seeing is it diminishing is it growing doing the research that you can with the tools you have available to understand the touch points seeing if you can get time series analysis on like how frequencies impacted your account when you're running higher or lower all that kind of stuff is really important because and then having a backup too if you you say i'm going to take the swing, but I want to diversify the risk.

19:41That's ultimately how I approach it as far as being cautious. But at the same time, sometimes you got to make a swing and see that is not perfect. But a lot of the time, meta does have a reason for pushing all the spend to a certain ad rather than another one within its system. And it's pretty smart for the most part.

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21:14Aves:These channels are only getting pricier and thinking our numbers are fine is costing your brand more and more by the day. Stop benchmarking against your own data and start benchmarking against real data from other brands. Go to triplewhale.com slash benchmarks and see how you stack up. I do this monthly call with a bunch of, I don't know, I lucked into this group of like nine figure e-commerce brand owners. And we do this call, uh, once a month and I'm just filled with like incredible ideas after it. And one of the things they were talking about on this call was the different ways that they go about researching the customer and, and the actual, the, the sentiments.

21:51Aves:Cause it's like, this goes back to a podcast I did with Dave early on about my son brings his hot steak to lunch and all the other students are jealous of his, it was like a thermos product or whatever, but it was like the emotion of a mother being proud of giving her kid a T-bone steak for lunch and how it was, but it's unearthing your customers own language that you can then surface in ads. And the one idea that came across that I thought was interesting was someone mentioned how they go to their, or they use AI to scan their customers or their competitors' reviews. And they pick out all the complaints in their competitors' reviews and then spin those into their own talking points.

22:33Aves:And I thought that was a pretty effective way. From your guys' side on the creative, how are you looking at researching customer behavior and sentiments? Any neat hacks? I'm so excited about this because we've been on a summer sabbatical on the adventure side as I'm building some new systems. But one of the most exciting things that I've been doing lately is I've done that before. That is a great, it's like fruitful grounds. But I've been really zeroed in on this idea of relevancy and what that means for each persona. And so something that I've been talking about for a while now is like all four of us on this couch, if we opened whatever app says TikTok, we would all have a vastly different experience.

23:14Like you and I are pretty similar, but we would have completely different experiences, right? Like everything that we're being served is so different. And I was just showing Taylor this, Like it boils down to these really minute differences of like, what's the lighting like? What is the font they're using as an overlay? And all of these things are becoming more and more ingrained in our brains and our customers' brains. And so it's getting easier and easier to spot an ad that isn't actually like part of that group, right? Because it's so interesting. So some of the things I've been doing is I've been using sort of native in-platform AI to look at what people are posting about either competitors, owned brands, or products in the market.

23:58I also tend to like really heavily index research into other competitors. And so something I've been really excited we've been bringing to Pilot House is this idea of like your competitor is not necessarily just like another brand that sells a black t-shirt. like what the people spend their money on that's not the thing that you're selling and that has been a huge unlock for a lot of brands where you start thinking in terms of like you know this purchase a lot of the some clients we service are discretionary in nature so it's like if you're not buying that what are you spending your money on i always joke it comes from having worked in politics because there's always this weird option of people not voting and so you're never just looking at like two candidates there's a weird third option which is no action yeah and so we've been thinking about that more and more and it's like how do you make these pieces of content so particular that they fit into the fyp or reels or whatever people are scrolling on that it's like immediately coded and signals to that person that you as a brand are at the same place as them and you're culturally in the same area and then how do you deal with like we're talking about competitors, weaving that in there.

25:10Also, if you're not spending your money on that, who are the other competitors? And trying to do that in a way that's fun and five seconds long is kind of the name of the game right now. And Kayla and I were just saying this, most brands are seeing the most success from video content. So it gives you more opportunity, I think, because it's not just a static overlay or back in the day when we were all running iPhone shots of unboxing. You can have more breadth to what you're saying, but there's this whole pipeline of stuff that goes into it, and you make a singular video ad, which is kind of cool.

25:43Aves:Yeah, that's interesting. I don't want to bring it back to fishing, but there's a lot of art that goes into fly fishing lure creation, and you just don't know what orange stripe or what glint of light or reflectivity or whatever is going to be interesting to that particular Yeah. The example I was running through with Taylor for a brand that we work with previously, and I think a lot of agencies still function this way, they look at people by gender, socioeconomics, really broad stroke stuff. And then I dug into it was like a brand that focuses on mom kind of products. And so I broke it into like regional and interests.

26:24And when you looked at I kind of broke it into like what is their visual identity? Completely different. If you looked at these people on paper, they are the exact same. Any like traditional marketing agency will tell you like, okay, we're talking to millennial moms. This is kind of broadly what they like and broadly what they don't like and what they want from this product. but when you go into those details, it was like, oh, we're not talking to these people properly. Like you could see the difference immediately. Taylor's the only person who actually knows what I'm talking about, but you could see it right away, right?

26:56It was like, oh, this is a completely different language. The content styles they make, like what they capture on camera, totally different. Some is like selfie style. Other kind of based on product and geography, they're looking at like selfie style. Like it was just nuts, nuances within these people.

27:12Aves:Super interesting. And in this talk I just did with Liam that's going to come out the week before this one, it's the idea of not just the avatar, but the circumstance. He kept circumstance testing, essentially, because it's not just the person and who they are and what they like. It's the action that they're engaging in when they might. So you take that, like the actual vector of their motion and what they're actually doing into account in the ad as well. And that's like a whole other filter you can layer on top of things to kind of use. this all goes to the creative is the targeting which is literally what we called like the second podcast we ever did six years ago we've been talking about that for so long but it's like now the technology has has backed backed into it where it's like this is literally the science of how you make creative the targeting for real yeah i work with one it's like a high aov product

27:59Abby:yeah kind of like a luxury product and we realized it wasn't like any usps or anything like that that was um going to like convince someone new who has never heard of the brand to purchase but instead it was like meeting them in their moments so their whole brand is like has evolved around milestone moments where we have like our four core personas they're in like higher income brackets different ages and genders and their moments like drastically differ so it's kind of like meeting them where they're at so someone who's 50 isn't really celebrating their home because they're now in their like forever home and they're like just enjoying it but someone who's 30 who maybe made their first purchase on like a new home need a high income to do that in victoria but um yeah but like the moment that we're like greeting them with is like a creator who's like i'm celebrating my first year in business and i just bought my new home like come have a drink with me and we walk through that night with them and it's really cool with andromeda because you start creeping the social proof for like the very two types of personas and there's nothing more rewarding than seeing the Facebook comments where it's like, I bought a home or someone's like, I retired.

29:05Abby:And you're just like, wow, you do need to trust AI a little bit because it's all just sitting in a broad targeting ASC campaign. So when you start to see creative actually targeting properly, it's really fun. That's cool.

29:19Aves:One of the other topics I wanted to hit today was something that came up in a podcast with Ari Murray from Salt and Stone. And she talked quite a bit about native social ads. And we just published something, I think, from someone from the Pilot House team in the newsletter, just about how to market to very marketing aware customers. Like customers have never been more aware of marketing, of AI manipulation, of every kind of manipulation that's going on in our world today kind of thing. And she just was really extolling the virtues of ads that don't really look like ads, even to the level, and I'm starting to see them of, you know, those people running things that just say, here are the things that are worth the money, this, this, and this.

29:57Aves:And your thing, yeah, your thing could be the third thing down on the list. I'm sure you guys are doing that right now. What are your thoughts on native social ads or ads that don't look like ads?

30:05Abby:I like what Abe said about how, like, you know, manipulating your algorithm to understand, like, what's on that persona's feed, because it's really hard to do when it's like, it could just be the Arial font, but it could be better yellow instead of white. And that's what all the girls in that persona have. And you need to understand that by, like, doing the right research to do that but the moms category i'm sure they're all very different based off of like suburban or in the middle of a city or like outdoor lifestyle so yeah i have found like i've had less of an inclination to make those type of ads because people are so aware and because i'm on this like like we've all decided the millennial brand era is dead that earnest like we're like fun and like this is like coming from an ad account but it's like that means that you like like that is not attractive to people anymore and so i feel like we've seen success on a brand we work with together by just being like this is an ad and it's so stupid it's so stupid and it's an ad and i've been really like leaning into the tenets of like and absurdity because i think that is like organically where people are on the internet like yeah sometimes you and i talk about just like Like the most insane things are so funny to us.

31:23They're so funny and we can't understand why. We can't equate it to anything. And so I think like it was probably Q4 of this past year where I was like, we're just throwing it all out. I'm thinking deeply of Dada. I'm thinking of Freud. I'm thinking of the boys coming back and making surrealist art from the war. And just like what do people really want from me as a marketer? Yeah. And that's entertainment. Like they don't necessarily want me to like be like them. As a marketer, they want me to entertain them, surprise and delight, razzle-dazzle. And then that is like what builds the affinity that we've seen.

31:59Interesting. It's just saying kind of like, yeah, this is an ad. And it's so dumb. And you paid money to put it in front of you. And people find that so like endearing. And so it's difficult because you can't teach that or systemize it. Like you just have to be so aware.

32:12Aves:And it might not work for every brand. Yeah. Right? The brand has to have the right tolerance for it and the right, you know, flexibility and everything. but it definitely meets a lot of customers where they're at right now because everyone feels pretty bombarded, I think with, with, so if you're just sort of able to be like totally in your face with it. Yeah. And also like on the other side, I think there's some brands where it's like, that's the approach. You go, dad, now it's surrealist art. Like it's a chair, but it's art. It's a urinal, but it's art. It's a stick person, but it's an ad. And then the other side is like the reference we used earlier with road.

32:44And it's like, well, everything's an ad now. Everything's actually an ad. every like organic post that anyone on that team is making that's an ad and there's like two camps now where if you're living in this zone of like hyper consumerism and your target persona wants to buy stuff then everything is just an ad and that's kind of I think acceptable now and then if you're working with folks who are a little bit less in that like what can I buy what's everyone wearing like what do I have to get right now those are the people where you kind of get to just have fun, I think, and you recognize that it's an ad.

33:18Aves:Anything to add on the native social trend? Yeah, I think, like, you raised a really good point there, too, where I think a lot about, like, I think it comes down to personas so important, because, like, what is that persona looking to get when they're on social media? And then, like, what are they looking for in their life, too, where you can meet them in that moment? Because a lot of the content, especially when it comes to video content, it's interesting, right? Like, it feels like there was this wave five, six seven years ago where you have the most raw like ugc like type stuff it's not edited now it feels like it's kind of like music where the bar has been raised so the quality has to be really high the product you're delivering has to be really good but at the same time it has to like has to be authentic and feel like there's value for me from this content and so that's where i think a lot of it it's really fun because it feels like it's all centered around what is the value I'm giving to that persona by delivering them this?

34:10And how do I play with the hooks, create educational content in a way that's fun and engaging, and then find those wins in combination with all of that and understand where the through lines live? So it's kind of interesting because it feels like it's on the kind of other end of the spectrum too, like what we've also seen work, which is like the I'm an ad and kind of making fun of itself type thing. But there's a lot of cool white space to play in, it feels like, within what is actually authentic to people and what gives them value in their feed. Nice. Yeah. I always say it's like when everything's authentic, nothing's authentic.

34:43And that, I think, creates the white space because it's like I know that you know on your phone that this is an ad. So what I think Taylor made a really good point, I always try to think of no matter what the brand is I'm talking to or consulting with, it's like what is entertaining to the person in the last step? And from persona to persona, again, The four of us on this couch would have different ideas of what we want to do after we're done with this that's going to be entertaining to us. And so it's like bringing that into the marketing and delivering. I think how you put it together is smart.

35:18It's like what value can you bring through entertainment? Is it humor? Is it aspiration? Is it fear?

35:26Aves:Zaniness. Last section was actually the section that we planned on basing this whole thing on that I threw out the window when we were getting set up here. but we posted a meme uh come up i came i came up with this fun thing from magnolia and it's tom cruise as his crazy unhinged character in the movie magnolia he's staring at the camera and he's just saying i am quietly judging you essentially and i wanted to know what are what's one thing don't say client when when someone speaks to you that you quietly judge them for when when they tell you something is there anything that you can think of takes both yeah totally anonymized what do you judge people when they when they tell you uh

36:06Abby:it's just like the overuse of ai i would say your quote was when you they start the conversation

36:12Aves:with well chat says yeah which i am guilty of with my team i know i i have been even on some of the topics which we didn't use it's all off the dome my authentic flesh dome uh And there was good flow. It was good. It was small. Take it easy. This is not that after hours. But, okay, so when the overuse of AI, and then how does that manifest?

36:35Abby:It's just hard hearing. AI is going to become your creative director. How are you going to be authentic and stand out in the algorithm when AI is your creative director and it's beating off of everyone else, right? I don't think that it's going to be a replacement

36:49Aves:for creativity because there will be no authenticity there.

36:54Abby:So I heavily judge the overuse of AI when it comes to creative and coming up with concepts and ad ideation and things like that. I think it can be like a great surface level starting place to get the ball rolling. But you should shut the laptop after that and actually do like a whiteboard session and plan with your team and think about like what's going on in the world and how can you speak to customers appropriately. But we joke about it a lot. We do not like AI. I really like it for reporting. Yeah. I like it for workplace automation, anything where like talking to a creative strategist or someone and they're like, wow, that report took me four hours to make.

37:32Abby:Great use of Mobi at Triple Whale. Let's automate that. And then let's have it update weekly in Slack. Like those are the types of things that are like a blessing because I'm not going to clients and being like, this report took me four hours. They're paying for those four hours of time. I'm going to the client and saying, this report took me five minutes. I spent the next two hours strategizing with my team on what it means. Yeah. And like, that's important.

37:55Aves:Great show. I would say too with the creative link, it's like everything that AI will give you, it's like pulling from a library of what already exists. And so I find it very funny when people are like, we got to get net new. Like nobody's ever thought of this concept before. And then they're like, chat, what's a net new idea? And it's like, it's not. It can't be. It's not capable of doing that. I think empowering yourself to understand how an LLM works is so important these days because it allows you to really get intimate with the boundaries of what it should be doing. And so, yeah. That's a great show.

38:31It can't make you anything net new. And if everyone is telling you, like, you have to stand on the feet. You have to do something no one has ever done before. Going to the central spot of just human waste information.

38:45Aves:Slop. Yeah. It can surface good insights from your own data. Yes. Right? I think that's really great at like surfacing phrases and ideas that you can then, like you say, shut the laptop and build upon.

38:57Abby:Yeah. Sometimes it can surface really bad insights from the data. It has done that. And that is important to note.

39:05Aves:About every third podcast, it surfaces something that I bring up and they're like, no, that's not at all the case. I'm not at all related to that because I always do some pre-research with it. So was that yours, Aves, or do you have another one that you judge people for? I would say people who have this opinion that volume is no longer important and that strategy has replaced volume. It's just not the truth, and it's very naive, I think. And our VP of brand and performance, Daniel, and I often joke, it's like you have to have a higher quality, more strategic content, and you actually need more than you needed two years ago.

39:40So you got to kind of wake up. I think a lot of people thought that it was going to be one or the other, but it's in fact both. So when people aren't sort of prepared for the amount of volume it's going to take, especially when we start talking channel expansion, like Apple oven, Taylor is hearing from me all the time. I'm so sick of this. It's like so many, like Apple, we love it. We do love a little Apple oven. We do very well there, but it's like, it requires so much volume. And I think something else that that tip-off gives me that I quietly judge people for is it also you need volume bespoke to each channel.

40:16Because as we talked about, every channel is playing a different part. So that is kind of a warning sign that I'm going to have to have a tough conversation with someone. Yeah. But in the moment when they say it at first, I just quietly judge people. Eventually, that tough comment is going to have to come where it's like, I wish that was the truth. I wish I could produce two assets a week that were highly strategic. that are just coup de grace.

40:38Aves:They're just, they're the perfect things, but no. No, you gotta, because yeah, there's just so much and people like, you know, they're just hungry for new content all the time. Yeah, makes sense. What about you, Taylor? I know you're so judgy. The list is long, but we'll pick some favorites. I think not having a clear target and segmenting targets for growth is a big one. segmenting targets being between things like paying very close attention to like new versus returning like retention versus acquisition right um because then the next one i have is not taking a bottom-up approach to growth so thinking about like how did the sum how did the parts create the sum of the hole that you're trying to get to like having a very clear roadmap to getting there especially in this like world where there's so much different direction you can go um and i think it's all interconnected because the other thing that came to mind while you guys were talking was using AI for insights too much, like not wrestling with the data yourself and then actually creating a meaningful like aha kind of insight by taking all the different pieces and putting it together and understanding what the bigger overarching story is that's being told that nobody had really thought of before rather than like what your LLM is going to tell you it thinks an insight is when it's really just a comment.

41:58Aves:Can you give me, not to put you on the spot, do you have any examples of a situation where you sort of rose above a simple connection made by an LLM and connected data in a way that... Yeah, I've got one even last week where we were analyzing the impact of a promo and trying to understand what had happened. And it was a really interesting promo because there were multiple parts to it. There was a lot of data that was counterintuitive, like the promo involved a higher entry average order value to take advantage of it. And at points in the promo, we saw the average order value go down rather than go up, which made no sense, right?

42:38So for us to be able to like, that one was one where I sat with the data for honestly two and a half hours going through and looking at all these different outputs I was getting from using AI in combination with my own review of the data. And we were able to basically form hypotheses that we've been able to since kind of work to try to keep validating, but understand like why like get into consumer behavior that we were not getting from like the insights that were getting fed back to me so understanding why someone was making a decision to buy on this day versus that day why they were not opting into this offer um and then we saw drastic differences so like ultimately the the major insight was like a consumer insight it was like consumers do not care about this they care about this and we didn't message this the way that we should have um that was the the kind of major insight and that was not something i was getting from the outputs back and it took a long time to put everything together and understand like why all these different patterns came together in a certain way so it was really interesting very cool i've seen it like referred to as a cognitive debt because it's like the more intimate you are like if you are making the decisions and you're doing the analysis that is a repeated process that I get to watch both of these people do very well.

43:56So it's like Taylor's taking stuff constantly that he has found from analyzing past promos and applying it to something new. But typically when you're really heavily relying on an LLM to give you your next steps, you're not doing that work. So it's like now he knows the next time we're running a promo, he's got not just like the outcome and the one-liner, but he's so intimate with what worked and what didn't. that like, yeah, I think cognitive debt is a great way to put it because it's like you are losing touch. And I see like this happening with founders too. They're losing touch with their business, which is really scary.

44:31And they can't tell you, I've probably all experienced this, like they can't tell you what actually works. They can kind of give you talking points and broad strokes. But once you start to ask those like nitty gritty questions and they're so far away because that is a great word for it's like the more you don't do that analysis yourself the further you get away from the insights and the more you miss and then just compounds into this really terrible scary like you're just flying blind most of the time well thanks for coming on

45:02Aves:all killer no filler after hours it feels like the breakfast club it feels like we're i don't know if you guys have seen that movie oh yeah it's a classic one i'll be the jock maybe i don't know No, you're the jock. I'll be the burnout. Well, if you want to join us on the after-hours couch sometime, you got to do it because it's pretty fun here. Maybe we'll go for a drink after, chop it up. Thanks for coming on today, guys. This was a lot of fun, as always. Yeah, that's a surprise.

45:34Aves:Thanks for listening to today's episode. If you're not getting the D2C newsletter, you can subscribe for free at directtoconsumer.co. And if you want to learn more about Pilothouse's all-killer, no-filler services, take off to pilothouse.co. I'm Eric Dick, and this has been the D2C Podcast. We'll see you next time.