Bonus: Alastair Campbell & Jacob Rees-Mogg Debate Brexit 10 Years On (Live)

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2:00Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. Does it have any impact upon you that these reasonably intelligent group of people actually think that what you inflicted upon the country has damaged the country? What I think is that the British people voted for it. Yes, they voted for it based upon... And we should respect a democratic result, which you have never wanted to do. It was a day that changed Britain and Europe. And 10 years on, Alastair Campbell and Jacob Rees-Mogg go head-to-head on Brexit. Do you think that Brexit has led us to the much more multi-party politics that we are in now?

2:39One of the reasons for Brexit is that people felt Whoever they voted for, nothing changed. Very little has changed in the 10 years since. And now they're looking at other parties. A lot of people who voted for Brexit are disappointed that that hasn't delivered a better life for them. From Bloomberg Weekend, this is The Michelle Hussain Show. I'm Michelle Hussain.

3:05The premise of this podcast, the promise, if you like, of what we do every week, is one essential conversation to make sense of the world. But sometimes there's more to talk about. Today is the 10-year anniversary of the UK voting to leave the European Union. An enormous decision. And one that contributed to the unprecedented churn in the number of prime ministers since. A phenomenon that's continuing right now, given the resignation of Keir Starmer. So what did Brexit do to the UK's politics as well as its economy? The 10-year milestone gives us an opportunity to reflect on just that, to look forward as well as back.

3:54And for this bonus episode, we decided to bring together two people on both sides of the debate who feel as strongly about Brexit now as they did back in 2016. They are Jacob Rees-Mogg and Alistair Campbell, who came into our London office to speak to an audience of Bloomberg subscribers. Quick final note before we hear them. If you want to be in the room for one of these in the future, there is a link to subscription offers in our show notes. And here's what happened when Jacob and Alistair joined me on stage.

4:37Welcome. Now, some of you will remember that it was at Bloomberg, not in this building in our old headquarters, where David Cameron made the fateful pledge that he was in favour of having an in-out referendum on the EU. Ten years ago, Jacob Rees-Mogg, you were a Conservative MP. You campaigned to leave the EU. Alistair Campbell, you were very much on the other side in 2016, but people knew you already from your work with Tony Blair in Downing Street. In the time we have, I want to look back at the economic impact and the political impact of Brexit in the last 10 years, and also your views on the future and what could or should be the future of the UK's relationship with the EU.

5:20So, first of all, as the results came in in June 2016, what did you not appreciate that we now know? Jacob? Well, the one thing I didn't appreciate was that the Remain side, who'd been quite passive in the referendum campaign, would start campaigning much harder after the result than they had done before. Very fair point. Whereas my side thought we'd won and stopped. And that was a mistake by our side and fascinating by the other side. And that's had very important consequences because since then you've had much more from people who think it was a mistake. I think the reason they started campaigning after the result was they never thought they would lose.

6:01And they thought it was just a few eccentrics like me who were in favour of it and that nobody would in fact vote for it. I thought at the time we would win because the more I got away from central London, the clearer it became that there was a very large base of support for Brexit. So that was the one big thing that I have noticed is the difference in campaigning since the result. Alistair? Well, when you were asking the question, the thing that popped into my head was I was in ITV studio. Tom Bradby was sitting there sort of talking about this, that and the other. And at the very moment when it came up that it is now impossible for Remain to win, I saw David Davis and Liam Fox look at each other with absolute panic in their eyes.

6:48The thing that really surprised me was that, and Jacob is right, by the way, the Remain campaign was terrible. I actually, I regret now, I didn't get that involved in the Remain campaign because Cameron and Osborne kept telling us, it's all fine, we're all going to, it's all fine, don't worry about it. I got involved subsequently and I was one of the few who admitted that the People's Vote campaign, to my mind, was probably the only vehicle we had left possibly to stop what I thought was a terrible act of self-harm. so I was open about that but I think what genuinely surprised me was there was just no plan there was no plan at all um the lies had been told the myths had been sold and and we had to pick up the pieces I do think Alistair Campbell of all people has to be careful about talking about lies considering his reputation well what's the reputation what's your reputation oh a high court judge in 1996 saying you're an unreliable witness That's quite a good part of your reputation, isn't it?

7:45Jacob, do you mind if we stick to Brexit? I think there's quite enough to get into on the Brexit side. I'm very happy to stick to Brexit, but Alistair brought up this question of lies. Well, you did lie. No, we didn't. You did. You lied. You drove a red bus with a pack full of lies. But I think if we're talking about lies, Alistair needs to look at his own record, because he has done more to damage trust in British politics than anybody else. This is the guy. And Peter Oborn has written a book about this. So if we wanted to, we could go through. We're getting all the old stuff. I would rather...

8:14But this is really important. I would rather that, given that I've set the parameters on, that we're going to talk about economic impact, political... Do you mind if we turn to economic impact, Jacob? As long as Alistair stops saying we lied, and then I won't talk about his lies. Well, I won't. Can we rest that point, Alistair? I think it would be better to talk about the economic impact. If you wait, we can spend the whole debate on Alistair's lies when he was in Darlene's. Can I tell you what Bloomberg economics analysis just released has been about the economic impact of the last 10 years, because this is just, you know, they've crunched the numbers as you'd expect.

8:44And in terms of the economic impact, this has been their finding that Brexit may have already cost the UK economy between two and four percent of GDP, that the central estimate is two and a half percent of GDP lost over the long run, which is equivalent to about 30 billion pounds a year in foregone annual tax revenue. How do you feel about that, Jacob? Well, the figures don't actually stack up. So if we look at the Bloomberg figure, which is, no, there are different ways of interpreting figures. So when you look at how the UK economy has done, actually, we've outperformed Germany, we've performed broadly in line with France.

9:20Why, if we'd remained in the EU, would we have performed as the outliers did? Let me put it in broader terms. Do you accept that there has been any economic hit at all in the last 10 years compared to where the UK would have been had it remained in the EU? I think using our economic freedoms has actually helped us. And if you look at our trade... Is that a yes or a no? Well, it's a complete answer, if you give me a moment. If you look at our trade, our invisible trade, our services trade, has been roaring ahead. And I think that's been partly possible. You've seen our trade with India increase very rapidly and invisibles.

9:53Because we're outside the European Union, we're no longer confined by its rules. So has that been an overall... I think it's been beneficial. I think it's been beneficial. OK, that's a very rare view that you think overall there's been a net economic positive. It's been beneficial to us, yes. OK. And not least, because we got the vaccine early, so we opened up. That's another lie. That's another lie. No, it's not. That's another lie. No, I'm just talking in terms of GDP. Hang on. But the early vaccine that our economy opened up earlier than the other ones we've done. Let me just say, Jacob says he doesn't want to leave.

10:21I'm not going to leave this lying thing because it is part of... All right, well, let's go back to the lying thing. I've got some papers on this. I'm sure you have. I've brought a nice record of lying to select committees of the House of Commons. And I've heard them all. of sexing up a document you may remember. Can I just finish the point? Well, you want to talk about lies. No, I want to explain to this public, you have got a list there. You can't point out a single lie to me. You have got a list there. I can point out a whole history of lying to you. Hang on for a second. They do not want to talk about the substance because they are so deluded in still thinking Grex has been anything other.

10:51I'm more than happy to talk about the substance. You have made every single person in this room poorer. Well, that's just not true. It is true. You've made every single person in this country poorer. Simply, we opened the economy earlier. because we had the vaccine first. By the lies that you told. No, this is justice. And you will never accept it. You're the one who destroyed trust in the British government by the lies you told over Iraq. Jacob, let me ask Alistair Campbell the same question that I put to you about the economic impact of the last 10 years. I'll give you a few more facts than he gave you.

11:16Well, would you accept that the economic impact has not been as bad as you thought, given that today the UK is still under OECD projections, projected to be the third fastest growing economy in the G7? I think that the economic consequences of Brexit have been catastrophic. I think that you've given a conservative end. If you take some of the other assessments that we're up to 8%, between 6 % and 8 % hit on the economy, we now have small firms that write to me all the time who have literally given up trying to trade with the European Union because of the red tape that these liars said they would cut by leaving Brussels, that they've now given up trading with business.

12:00Productivity is lower than it would be. Our GDP is lower than it would be. And what's more, we could double, we've got a security crisis at the moment. If we, to my argument, had not left the European Union, we could currently double defence spending and increase the National Health Service by 50 % without touching any taxes. If everything that you're saying is true, then why are we projected to be the third fastest growing economy I mean, the G7 this year. I've never been one of those anti-Brexit people who thinks that the European Union is some kind of panacea or some sort of... Europe is not in a good place.

12:37Europe's competitiveness is too low. But we, in wrenching ourselves out of the biggest market in the world, we have done fundamental damage to every single person and business in this country. OK, first of all, these figures are just wrong. The 8 % is a joke figure and assumes that we would have grown as the United States has grown. The United States has grown faster because it's got cheap energy. We have grown faster than Germany. What part of being in the EU would have allowed us to grow even faster than we have when its anchor economy has been failing? I'm relying. The productivity question is mainly a question in the public sector, whereas the private sector productivity has been marginally increasing and the public sector doesn't export to the European Union.

13:23I'm relying on the analysis done by the government by this government and the last government that has been tracked that we have taken a substantial... And I'm going to refer everyone here to the Bloomberg Economics Analysis, which has a wide range and where everyone can see the basis of the figures. But I think Alistair should just explain how the OBR came to its 4 % figure. I'm not talking about the OBR. Well, that's the key figure. The OBR's 4 % figure. No, it's not. That was a forecast. You've got your notes. I've got my notes. That was a forecast by the OBR. It's the National Bureau of Economic Research.

13:53But that's not... It is based on... The 8 % figure depends on Ireland. And I'm going to ask you both... But the Irish economy has just fallen by 12 % because of tariffs and pharmaceuticals. This aspect of it for a moment, because we can both see that you're never going to agree on a common set of numbers, and they are entitled to not agreeing on a common set of numbers. Let's turn to the political impact of the last 10 years. It's been a total triumph. Do you... Hasn't it? Both of you... Absolute triumph. Both of you... We're more respected in the world. You're associated. We've got a great special relationship.

14:23working for the two parties which have dominated our politics for the last century. Do you accept that both of their political fortunes have suffered because of Brexit? Alistair, do you accept that for Labour? Yes, and I'll tell you why. Because they haven't fought hard enough to make sure the public fully understands the calamity that was inflicted upon us by these people. And they've tried to accept. One of, I think, Keir Starmer's mistakes was this idea that we're going to make Brexit work. You can change things at the margins and they've tried very hard to do that with some of the veterinary agreements with Erasmus and so forth But they have they don't want to address the fundamental question and You know am I allowed to ask the audience a question for show of hands?

15:08I'd like to know because I you know, you can read polls You can read all the stats and voice of it Can I just ask the people in this room who thinks I'll be very very neutral? Success or failure for the United Kingdom who thinks breaks it has been a success for the United Kingdom? Who thinks it's been a failure? To explain, no one in the audience raised their hands when Alistair asked if Brexit was a success. Nearly everyone had raised their hands for failure. You get that, Jacob, you can live in your dream world. You get that everywhere in the country, everywhere. If I'd been here in the year of the referendum and we'd said who wants to leave and who wants to stay, we'd have had exactly the same.

15:44No, you would, not at all. I found that every yard I went from the centre of the City of London, you got more supporters for Brexit. I knew we were going to... If we went to Lincolnshire, if we went to Cornwall, and I really did find this during the debates because I went anywhere that invited me to speak. And the closer you were to the centre of the city, the heart of the city, the more anti-Brexit it was. So that doesn't surprise me at all that you get that... Does it have any impact upon you? These reasonably intelligent group of people actually think that what you inflicted upon the country has damaged the country?

16:15What I think is that the British people voted for it. Yes, they voted for it. We should respond if I can revisit this thing. Which you have never wanted to do. I've never wanted to do, no.

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19:17I'm going to bring in some polling by Ipsos. We're going to talk in detail about the future a bit later. But as a sense of where polling stands right now, over half of British adults would vote to rejoin the EU if a new referendum was held. Although that 52%, Alistair, is probably not as large a majority as you would hope for if things have been such a disaster in the last 10 years. I think an awful lot of people just do not want to revisit the debate. I do want to revisit the debate. And I think it's a debate that has to be had. But I meet lots of people who completely buy my analysis of what's happened, but actually just do not want to revisit the debate.

19:57And I'm afraid that's where I think the Labour government's got itself into as well. But that's not the question in that, is it? It's like if a vote was held, 52 % would apply to join the EU, would like to see the UK apply to rejoin the European Union. Yeah, but you're talking, I mean, 52%, 33%, if you're looking at that as an electoral thing, you'd call that a landslide. But look, I don't think until there is a debate, nobody here, nobody in this room thinks that we are going to have a referendum in the near future. Okay, I would like there to be one. I don't actually think we're going to have one for some time.

20:30And two reasons. One is I don't think the political debate wants it here. But secondly, while we've got the prospect of people like Jacob getting into bed with people like Nigel Farage and Nigel Farage possibly coming in the government, the European Union is not going to think about having us back. Because this debate, this is the triumph that Jacob can take some comfort in, given his views of the world. Until the country is settled in the view that we should be in the European Union, the European Union is not going to have us back. OK, before you answer that, Jacob, I want to take you back and put the same question to you that Alice answered a moment ago about Labour.

21:07So how the impact on your party, which fractured to some extent over Brexit and has been in power repeatedly since then. It's been very divisive for the Conservative Party since the early 1990s, that there's been a pro-European, anti-European wing. and that has made room for reform to grow out of the Conservative Party and led to a lot of divisions in the last government. Your party failed to actually handle Brexit properly. Alistair made the point that there was no plan for leaving. That was a deliberate policy decision of David Cameron and it seems to me it was a deeply irresponsible one that if you give the country a referendum and you're the Prime Minister you ought to think that you could lose.

21:48Did you have a plan as someone who was arguing for leave? I knew what I wanted to do but I wasn't in government. I was a backbench MP. And that was the difficulty. That's the difficulty with referendums, is that you don't have the party that wins the referendum then implementing the policy. You have the party that is in government doing it who may disagree with the referendum. And that was the position we got into, David Cameron going and Theresa May, who was a Remainer taking over. And so, yes, there were lots of ideas of what we should do when leaving, but we weren't the government of the day.

22:20We were just arguing for those points. But that gave them an extraordinary advantage, that leave could mean whatever any of the leavers said that it meant. And that's why there was such a catalogue of lies, because Johnson said one thing, Farage said another one, Michael Gove said another one. The lying experts back. I mean, listening to him on lies is like listening to King Herod on childcare. Well, I mean, I think you should get back, get into the modern world, Jacob. I know it's difficult for you, but I think that, and that's not an anti-historical point, The list of your Peter Oborn list is so debunked and so discredited.

22:54Have you sued him? I've never sued anybody in my life. So you haven't sued him? Unlike the right, I believe in free speech. Oh, OK. Now, if I can return to help Michelle. And footnoted. Try to put, oh, he's got footnotes in the book. Marvellous. Yes, referring to things that you said that turned out not to be true. I'll tell you something about the book that I would recommend. You should get this for your book club because this is what Brexit's actually about. Jacob's dad, William Rees-Mogg, wrote a brilliant book in 1997. Former editor of the Times newspaper. Former editor of the Times, called The Sovereign Individual.