Why Iran Isn’t Breaking: Vali Nasr on Pain, Patience and the Uprising That Isn’t Coming

17:33Vali Nasr:And they learned that international organizations won't support Iran because it's a revolutionary government. Nobody would sell it anything. It increasingly was under sanctions. So the Islamic Republic for 47 years has grown up, if you would, trying to figure out how to do it on its own and that it's alone. And it has to protect itself by its own resources. I mean, we see this in the fact that they're able to produce these missiles and drones. They're not buying them. This is a do-it-yourself country, which is a consequence of its isolation.

18:06Mishal Husain:Yes, isolated in that way, but also willing and able to sow destruction elsewhere, whether it's the drones that have been used by Russia against Ukraine, or of course, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

18:18Vali Nasr:Absolutely. I mean, in their own thinking, and I underscore that, I know how it looks to their adversaries, friends, et cetera, around the region. But in their own thinking, there is a strategy to this. This is not wanton destruction or some kind of a war on the world in the name of religion. Iran has been isolated by the United States, put in a box. The United States has made alliances with its neighbors. It has built large military bases all around Iran. And then it's economically has been sanctioning Iran and tightening the cord around it for the past 47 years. So to them, they cannot fight this in a conventional way.

18:56Vali Nasr:Nobody will help them. So essentially, it's an idea of a global sort of guerrilla strategy against the U.S. That, you know, you build militias in Lebanon, in Iraq, in Syria, in order to defend yourself farther away from your borders, that you need Russia's help for varieties of reasons. And the price for that is to help Russia at its moment of need, because you need a Russian veto when the United States wants to put you under sanctions at the UN, or that you try to needle the Arab countries in order to raise the cost of supporting the U.S. strategy against Iran. Now, it has often backfired on them.

19:35Vali Nasr:It won the enmity of the Arab world and the strategy of defending themselves in Lebanon and Syria collapsed. But Iran never considered that it should lay down its weapons and just give in and arrive at peace with Israel and the U.S. It has been determined to fight. And that's probably the folly or the consequence of the strategy Ayatollah Khomeini and Khomeini pursued, this idea that the United States is a threat to Iran. The United States wants to take our sovereignty. We have to keep the U.S. out of Iran. and in fact kick it out of the Middle East. And this has proven extremely costly to them.

20:12Vali Nasr:And now this is the final battle. This is where we've ended up.

20:16Mishal Husain:The final battle. As in, it is existential then for the Iranian regime, you think, one way or another?

20:22Vali Nasr:Yes. In fact, they call this the final battle. In other words, either we go down or that cordon gets broken. They very well understand that this 47 years of resistance to the United States is no longer sustainable in the way that it was waged. Iran is dying economically. It's continuously attacked by Israel and the United States now on its own soil since the collapse of Hezbollah and Syria. And so this is the final stat, that either they go down, either resistance collapses or resistance manages to change the rules of the game. And that's what they're betting on. So if you were designing a U.S.

20:59Mishal Husain:policy towards Iran right now, and I know you worked on U.S. policy, right? You're an advisor to the State Department. and you worked in the State Department in President Obama's time, which did result in a policy of engagement towards Iran in that there were nuclear negotiations. So that's a form of engagement. If that path had been continued, if Donald Trump hadn't ripped up the Iran deal, would it have resulted in a better present? Or is your description of the regime too entrenched for that?

21:35Vali Nasr:No, I think it could have ended up in a better place. First of all, even revolutionary governments evolved. So it's not only that Trump came out of the deal. What followed his coming out, in other words, putting maximum pressure sanctions on Iran and trying to squeeze Iran more, that maximum pressure itself transformed Iran. It hardened it. It radicalized it. It made it much more determined that the U.S. cannot be trusted and is out to destroy Iran. A more hard-line, hard-headed leadership rose to the helm in Iran. So that was one direct consequence. Secondly, let's look at the other sides. Say that the deal had continued.

22:15Vali Nasr:Many of those who were negotiating that deal, like President Rouhani or Foreign Minister Zarif, were of an opinion that success of that deal was the building block of gradual change inside Iran and gradual change in relations with the U.S. If you have a deal that's implemented, that creates trust, then you can't have other deals. And I think President Rouhani's office had an estimation that if the deal had lasted for 10 years, the size of Iran's middle class would have grown by 35 percent. And that was really the constituency for change in Iran. Whereas when Trump came out and imposed maximum pressure, actually 20 % of Iran's middle class within the first two years fell under the poverty belt.

22:58Vali Nasr:And so, you know, a poorer society under economic pressure becomes more authoritarian and becomes more radical. So yes, I would say the JCPOA was a leap of faith, but it is a tragedy. We will look back at that one point. It was a tragedy that it was not given the opportunity to prove itself.

23:19Mishal Husain:Do you think Iran will now be determined to create a nuclear bomb if it possibly can?

23:26Vali Nasr:Yes, I think the door is open. First of all, the former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had issued a fatwa saying that nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam. Now, the West may dismiss this as irrelevant, but to a Shia ayatollah and to his followers, a fatwa is quite a very strong statement. The Shias don't follow dead Ayatollahs. That fatwa is now no longer valid. It's no longer standing. So it would be up to Mojtaba and clerics in Qom to decide whether they will renew that fatwa or not. But national security imperatives now suggest that Iran will go towards nuclear weapons. First of all, they made a determination that their strategy over 20 years of trying to have an open nuclear program that could be monitored by IEA, trying to prove to the world that they don't want a bomb, was a mistake that they should have followed India-Pakistan model.

24:22Vali Nasr:They should have never discussed the program. They should have gone for a bomb rather than a program. And so everything the West did actually made them convinced that trying to negotiate with the world for a civilian nuclear program had been a mistake. It only invited sanctions and war. So where they go from here, I think, is that either they would give up the program altogether, which I don't think is likely, or that the program would essentially become much more of a military program and a secret program. That's a very stark prospect.

24:55Mishal Husain:I mean, supposedly that's exactly what countries like the United States and its allies have been trying to prevent for decades?

25:04Vali Nasr:Well, the example of Iran, it's very easy to sort of think of Iran as an awful rogue state in the West, and then to say, well, you know, this policy is specific to Iran. But every US policy has an audience out there. You know, a lot of countries now have looked at this and said that if they want to go down that path, they should do it quickly and secretly, and that the United States and Europe will play with you, will put sanctions on you, will deal with you, sign a deal, move out of the deal. And in the end, you end up where Iran is. And so maybe many countries would be dissuaded from even thinking about nuclear issue.

25:42Vali Nasr:But we're also in a world where President Trump is encouraging everybody around the world to develop a weapon of mass destruction to protect themselves from a Venezuela-Iran scenario. And I recently read an eminent Pakistani scholar said that how grateful he is for the first time in his life that his country actually made the choice to build nuclear weapons. And so that's a very huge statement. So there's a lot of other countries that are afraid of this kind of American foreign policy of changing leadership on countries, bullying countries, and they will decide that. And so I think Iran has been a very, very bad example for the rest of the world.

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27:57Mishal Husain:Vali, can we go a little bit further back in the 20th century than we've already talked about? Because I learned so much from your book about, for example, Iran's experience in the Second World War and then in the Cold War. And what someone like Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, learned from those experiences. Take us through what happened.

28:19Vali Nasr:I mean, the leadership of the Islamic Republic, but also the Iranian people are keenly aware of Iran's history. It's continuously evoked. And it's a history in which Iran has barely survived to the 20th century, that it has had aggressive neighbors, Russia and the Ottoman Empire, who've taken territory from it. It's been abused by the British and the French and colonialism. And then in the 20th century, in both world wars, the country went through famine because of Western policies. It was occupied. It was nearly divided, lost territory. And the older generation of the Islamic Republic was reared in that environment.

28:57Vali Nasr:I mean, between 1946, end of World War II, and 1953, Iran experienced massive amount of foreign intervention. I mean, first in 1946, the Soviet Union occupied northern Iran and wanted to break it off. And it was America and Britain intervened. That didn't happen. But you had a generation, the monarchy, etc., who basically were shaped by that experience. And then barely seven years later, Britain and the United States intervened in Iran to remove a prime minister who wanted to nationalize Iran's oil company.

29:32Mishal Husain:The CIA and MI6 in 1953 against Prime Minister Mossadegh.

29:37Vali Nasr:In 1953. And so for Khomeini, for Khamenei, they believe that the Islamic Republic was created in order to change that history. That no more foreign intervention, no more bullying by superpowers. Then Iran's former foreign minister a few months ago on an interview with Foreign Policy magazine said, the Islamic Republic is the first government in Iran in over 200 years to give Iran genuine sovereignty. because that sort of history has been internalized by the revolutionary leaders as 200 years of Iran basically being under the thumb of outsiders, including the Shah's period. And I don't agree with that analysis, but that's the history that is in their minds.

30:21Vali Nasr:So history is very important here in that sense.

30:23Mishal Husain:What do you think of the Shah's son, Raza Pahlavi, and his desire to be seen as a future leader in Iran and the support that he seems to have got from some people, at least before this war, the fact that his name was being chanted on the streets?

30:41Vali Nasr:Well, he did have a huge moment before this war, and we'll see whether it continues. For the reason that, you know, historically, there have been two important institutions of power in Iran since at least the 1500s. It's the monarchy and the clergy. So when the monarchy was in power and it abused power, it was the clergy who stood up for the people. And when the clergy are in power and they abuse power, it's the monarchy that essentially people see as the alternate institution. And Iranian monarchy has always stood for the grandeur and power of Iran historically. And also I have to say that under the pressure and the abuse of power that has happened in Iran under the Islamic Republic, there is enormous amount of nostalgia among Iranians for the Shah and his father.

31:31Vali Nasr:Those were better, period. Despite authoritarianism, Iranians had better lives. It was an open country. And the Shah's son is a beneficiary of these deep feelings in Iran. So he symbolizes the desire for a return to the good old days, a sort of a future cast in the image of a golden past for many Iranians. I think the problem right now is that, first of all, he never invested in building a ground game in Iran, an actual organization and movement. So yes, there's enthusiastic supporters that could ebb and flow, but enthusiasm of the popularity is not the same thing as having a political program.

32:11Vali Nasr:But in addition, he's allied itself very, very closely with both Israel and the United States. And this runs against the grain of Iranian nationalism. But we shall see. I mean, it all, as I said, depends on how this war ends. But unless he has a ground game in Iran and unless he stands for Iranian nationalism, stands not with countries that are attacking Iran, but actually stands and represents Iran's desire for safety and security at this point, I think it will be very difficult for him to play a significant role.

32:44Mishal Husain:All this history that you're describing the last few decades, it's changed your life, hasn't it? Your family's life. You were 18 when you had to leave Iran yourself. Can you describe that period, what it was like to leave the country?

33:00Vali Nasr:It was very difficult. I mean, we didn't refer to it as refugees then. We called it exiles. But my family left Iran very, very abruptly in 1979 for fear of our safety and all our property, everything in Iran was taken by the revolutionary government. And I ended up going to school and university in the West. I think the disruption was traumatic. It was traumatic for all Iranians that have experienced it since. It is extremely difficult to lose your country, right, and to do so involuntarily. You know, there's a difference between migration and refugee or exile status. But, you know, the bonds persist.

33:41Vali Nasr:The bonds with where you were born, where your identity comes from, from the history that you know, from people that you know are there. And so the pain that Iran faces at various times is a pain that you continue to acutely face, even though it's been 47 years since I lived in Iran.

33:59Mishal Husain:And I know you did manage to visit once. I'm curious to know more about your father because I know of him by reputation. He's a renowned scholar of Islam. He's written many, many books which are read by Muslims and others alike over decades. Why was it not possible for your family to stay in Iran? Because I would have thought with that kind of academic pedigree and his knowledge of Islam that that would be appreciated by the clerics and by Khomeini.

34:28Vali Nasr:Well, first of all, he worked in the Shah's government. He was chancellor of a university, and towards the end, he was head of the Queen's Special Bureau. So that government affiliation made him a target, if you would, for the eradication that they were implementing towards the Shah's officials. But secondly, not all Islams are the same. So my father stood for a mystical, different interpretation of Islam that was not the creed of the revolutionaries. I mean, over the years, his books have been translated into Persian and have a huge following in Iran. The following is mostly among those Iranians who have a deep cultural and spiritual relationship with Islam or want to have it, but don't want to subscribe to the political Islam of the Islamic Republic.

35:15Vali Nasr:And Islamic Republic, like all revolutionary governments, is very intolerant of those it sees as a political and ideological deviation or rivalry. So when you sort of get closer than just basically it's all Islam, there are many different shades. And so his particular, his writings, his approach was not welcome particularly. And at the beginning, for the reason that I mentioned, but even later when his books have become very popular in Iran, it has created different kinds of sensitivities about a sort of Islam that is not supportive of the official political Islam of the state.

35:57Mishal Husain:How is he in the face of all of this? What are your conversations like at the moment?

36:02Vali Nasr:I think for his generation, this is even more painful than mine, because, you know, they lived a far longer time period in Iran, and they saw much more of its history. And now they are living to see the destruction of the country. And some of them also remember World War II, whereas my father was a child. And so they can very easily sort of empathize with that moment. I think for all Iranians generally, I mean, there are a segment of Iranians abroad who are celebrating this war, but I would put them aside. But for majority of Iranians, I think this is an incredibly painful moment, regardless of what they think about the Islamic Republic.

36:43Vali Nasr:The relationship of Iranians to Iran is a cultural, patriotic, nationalistic relationship. It goes above and beyond any one government. And I think for a lot of them, they feel it is not the Islamic Republic that's suffering. It's Iran that is suffering. And so emotionally for them, it's very difficult. They also are living in the countries that have a very different perspective on this war. And so that adds to the problem. I remember when I first came to the U.S., it was during the hostage crisis. As a 17, 18-year-old, it was extremely difficult being Iranian. And then we all lived in the post-9-11 period, which was incredibly difficult being a Muslim in that environment.

37:29Vali Nasr:And now, once again, it is a similar kind of a situation that America's at war with Iran. And for a lot of Iranian Americans, this is, again, is as difficult a moment as being a Muslim American was after 9-11.

37:43Mishal Husain:How do you handle all of that yourself? Because your job, as you're doing with us right now, as you do when you write, is to make sense of this complex and difficult period to interpret it. But as you look at the videos and you see messages on Telegram and elsewhere, do you find yourself shaken?

38:01Vali Nasr:Yes, often. I mean, deep down, I think this animosity between U.S. and Iran and the policies of both sides has not been good for either country. And I don't think this war will serve the United States either. So in a way, the way I think about this is in terms of what is good for the Middle East, what's good for the United States and what's good for Iran. But, you know, we all have to cope. As I said, maybe having gone through the experience of the hostage crisis when I was much younger, having gone through the experience of post 9-11 period, I think we are all more prepared for this moment. But there's also deep fractures within the Iranian-American community itself.

38:42Vali Nasr:And that's in a way is even more painful to watch and to experience at this moment that also the community abroad is eating itself as a consequence of these events.

38:54Mishal Husain:The divisions, because some people you mean are cheering the Americans and the Israelis on.

38:58Vali Nasr:Yes, exactly. They are. And this is creating a great deal of friction. It's become now very much common to talk about how friendships are broken, how people don't talk to each other, how members of the family don't talk to each other. And it's very simple. It used to be, are you for the regime or not? And that was a much easier answer. But now that is, do you support the war or you do not support the war? What price should Iran pay for the Islamic Republic to go? I mean, there are those abroad who say that they're willing even for Iran to be divided, to lose territory, a war at any cost for the regime to go.

39:39Vali Nasr:And this makes for very difficult conversations within the community. And now it is not just that Iranian Americans or like Muslim Americans have to have difficult conversations with Americans or with Christians or Jews. It is the most difficult conversations we're having now is actually with our own kindred.

39:58Mishal Husain:And do you think that there will be a change to borders at the end of it? Like if you look at the Iraqi border and the fact that there are Iranian Kurdish groups which could cross that border and which have had relationships with the U.S. or if you think about the border with Pakistan and the Baloch people on both sides of that border?

40:16Vali Nasr:It's possible. I mean, if the state collapses in Iran and if this war truly creates a situation where Iranian security forces cannot control a country the size of Western Europe and you have neighbors along with the United States and Israel supporting separatist groups, it's possible that one may end up there. But I can tell you, Michelle, that right now, the talk of it, the prospect of it, is actually unifying the Iranian people at the center in defense of the country. So when President Trump said, I'm not sure the borders of Iran would be the same at the end of the war, I can tell you in Iran, this fell like a two-ton rock.

40:56Vali Nasr:It created huge amount of anxiety and rallying, if you would, to the flag. So again, it shows that you know, the degree of anxiety that Iranians are feeling and facing, it's not about the collapse of the Islamic Republic, which maybe many of them would welcome in some ways. But they are really, really worried that the price that the country itself might pay. And I think that may create even a sort of unexpected outcomes within Iran and in terms of how it wages this war, how the people react to it.

41:28Mishal Husain:Fali, to close, I want to go to the words with which you begin your latest book published last year, where you wish that Iran finds its rightful place in the world. Can you paint a picture of that? What is your vision for Iran's rightful place in the world?

41:45Vali Nasr:I mean, I would like to see a country that is prosperous, that is open, that its people are happy, that is at peace with its neighbors and with itself. And Iran for 47 years now has been at war, has been at war with the United States, with Iraq. It's been in economic war and now in hot war. And its population is exhausted. And its population has a deep sense that Iran is capable of much more than this, that it should be a great power on the world stage. And I wish for that to come through. And I wish for all Iranian Americans to be able to not have a distant relationship with Iran, but this large community, very talented people who love their country, to actually to be able to coexist with it in an organic way.

42:30Vali Nasr:And same with the people inside Iran, to be exposed to the world in a way that they currently are not.

42:37Mishal Husain:Fali Nasser, thank you so much for sparing us some time. Thank you.

42:50Mishal Husain:And that's where we left the conversation, which I've been thinking about a lot ever since. If you're wondering about some of the events or people or places that we touched on, there's more context in the written version of this on Bloomberg.com forward slash Michelle. It includes my notes explaining the wider picture, as well as maps and photographs. And that, by the way, is something we do for each episode. The Michelle Hussain Show's producers are Jessica Beck and Chris Martlew. The video producer is Andy Haywood. Social media is by Alex Morgan. Audio mixing by Richard Ward. Our music is by Bart Warshall.

43:31Mishal Husain:The executive producer is Louisa Lewis. And at Bloomberg Weekend, director of audio and special projects is Brendan Francis Newnham. And our executive editor is Catherine Bell. You can email us, michelshow at bloomberg.net. You can tell us what you thought of this, or perhaps there's another conversation you'd like to hear. Until next time, goodbye.