Why Israel Could Be Forced to Stop: Shira Efron on War, Fatigue and Netanyahu's Strategy

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1:32Be smart. Get WISE. Download the WISE app today or visit WISE.com. Terms and conditions apply. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. When President Trump says we're done, Israel is going to be done. Israelis could be disappointed at this outcome because an agreement is not something that Israel favors. Shira Efron on how Israelis see the war with Iran and what's at stake politically. Is the fact that there's an election coming in Israel part of the prime minister's calculation in starting this war? There is a sense in Israel that this perpetual state of war also serves the prime minister's political objectives.

2:21This is a good reason to keep the spouting elections, especially if oil polling shows that you're not likely to win again. From Bloomberg Weekend, this is the Michelle Hussain Show. I'm Michelle Hussain.

2:39Once again, the headlines have been moving fast on the Middle East. So fast that at times, it's been nearly impossible to work out where the truth actually lies. One moment there's a US threat to bomb power plants, then a pivot towards a deal with Iran. Which made us think, where does that unpredictability on US intentions leave Israel? Opinion polls have suggested that around 80 % of Israelis support the Iran war, and that's part of what we explore in this conversation. It's with Shira Efron, who's been a Middle East analyst for the last 20 years. She's now Distinguished Chair for Israel Policy at RAND, a think tank which gets much of its funding from the US government and the US military.

3:31I'd heard her say on another podcast that she's more about policy than politics, but we did talk about political leadership, the Israeli election expected later this year, and also about the Mossad and Iran, what Israel is doing in Lebanon, the situation in Gaza and on the West Bank. We began, though, with Shira herself, because after these weeks of war, I did want to know what the impact had been on her life in Tel Aviv. It's lost on outside audiences who see Israel and the U.S. as the aggressors here, right and look at the damage that Iran is inflicting on everyone else. To forget there is a human dimension also in Israel, regardless of the role in this war.

4:21I will say on the personal level, we are fine. God bless. You know, we have a bomb shelter at home that we, when we moved into this house, we never thought we would use. But past October 7, it's been the room most frequented in the house by all of us. So it's back to routine, quite heavy hitting. We live in the central part of Israel, Tel Aviv. So Tel Aviv is hit pretty frequently, around the sirens. I have three boys who are, unlike their parents, quite happy to be at home, but it's something that they've gotten used to right after COVID, which the whole world experienced. And then post-October 7, I think these kids barely had school in the past six years.

5:07But even at home, it means that there are times you hear the sirens day or night, and you're all down in the bomb shelter. Yes, yes, there's a pretty functioning system, but there's a ear shattering scream that comes through the phones before the sirens come to make sure you wake up. And then about between six to 10 minutes afterwards, the sirens come, we all go down to the shelter, you waited 10 minutes, you hear those bombs, exploding somewhere, whether it's a direct hit. And it's quite ironic, but you even hear the kids say, oh, it sounds like a cluster rocket now, or it sounds like a direct hit, or maybe it's the Iron Dome interception.

5:44Then we get out, we try to sort of continue with our lives, but we're mostly stranded to home. We're fine. I've gotten used to this, but it is challenging. And there are other Israelis who are less lucky, right? There have been casualties, obviously, property damages across the country. Yeah. And help me understand whether Israeli public opinion on this war has shifted as the weeks have gone on. The most recent polling I've seen has suggested about 80 % support for this war. Do you sense any change in the public mood? So I think there are two things that can be true at once. Support for the war remains at around 80%.

6:30These are the last polls that I've seen as well from a variety of sources. There is a belief in the necessity of this war to remove an existential threat from Israel. And we can debate the merit of this argument. However, there is a fatigue, right? People are home with the kids. It's very difficult for working parents to go to work. I think anyone who survived COVID with kids would sympathize with this issue. It takes a toll on the independents, people who own their own businesses. Obviously, anyone who is in reserve duty, Israel has been at war for around 900 days. I have friends who have been in reserve duty for 800 of these days.

7:12And there is maybe a slight decline in the numbers, in the belief that this war will reach its objectives, which from an Israeli perspective, was supposed to bring to a toppling of the Iranian regime. And I think this is where we see the slight shift in sort of understanding, yes, this war is necessary, and it is weakening the regime, and it's degrading capabilities that Iran has to strike Israel. But there's a slight decline in the belief that it will remove the threat once and for all. Yeah. But is that also linked to the fact that last summer, Israelis were told by Benjamin Netanyahu at the end of the 12-day war that the sword of the Iranian threat hanging over their heads had been removed.

7:59Is there any level of confusion at being told that last summer and going to war again this year? Oh, absolutely. And I think there's a feeling of deja vu. We had heard only in June 2025 that the Iranian threat was removed. Obviously, the US president also said that he obliterated the Iranian nuclear plan. So how come only eight months after and the Israeli public, unlike publics around the world, have been ready for round two for a couple of months before this round broke? Very clearly, the question is like, wait, if we just did it, how come we need to do it again? And it's not just Iran. There's a secondary front that could turn into a primary front.

8:44But when we look at South Lebanon, we had heard that Hezbollah was decimated, right? Hezbollah is a Shiite group in Lebanon that's also a terrorist group, that Hezbollah was decimated, and that we took out its arsenal. So in a sense, there is misalignment with the promises and the declarations that are coming from Israeli leadership versus reality. And this is, I think, one of the gaps that is frustrating the Israeli public. And that makes me want to ask you, Shira, is the fact that there's an election coming in Israel part of the prime minister's calculation in starting this war? So one of the, I think, the most frustrating thing in Israel at the moment that it's very difficult to disconnect anything that is happening in this country from political motivations.

9:36For Prime Minister Netanyahu, I want to say Iran has been like a religion for four decades. He's been speaking about the need to remove the, to hit the Islamic Republic of Iran. Yeah, he's using apocalyptic terms and he's been using them for three to four decades, including presentations with props of the UN that some people may remember. So it is genuine from his perspective. It does not mean that what he sees as the national interest does not align well with his political interests. And, of course, the reason for opening this war, the first round in June, and then now again, this was an operational opportunity that we can get into.

10:23But there is a sense in Israel that the desire to keep Israelis off their feet. And in this perpetual state of war also serves the prime minister's political objectives. Because, first of all, it's very difficult to go to elections when you're in the middle of a war, right? this is a good reason to keep expounding elections, especially if oil polling shows that you're not likely to win again. Just to dig into that, you think that could be part of the calculation, a desire to delay the election so there might not be one this year? It's difficult to say if there's going to be, there's an indication now that the elections will take place in time.

11:02But I do want to remind you that when October 7 happened, the biggest failure, the biggest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, right? The expectation in Israel was that the prime minister will resign and the country will go to elections to receive a renewed mandate from the Israeli public. That has not happened. And the pretext for this not happening was something that the coalition leadership has said all along. We can't go to elections when we're in the middle of a war. So it is possible that the elections will take place on time, which is going to be somewhere in the fall this year. It is possible, and God knows where we're going to be there, then the election will have to be postponed.

11:42But also, Netanyahu himself has portrayed himself all his life as Mr. Security. And being in a state of war could strengthen him. We're not seeing either of the middle polls yet, but versus his, in comparison to his contenders, as Mr. Security. And so it serves a dual goal, even though the motivation has not just been political, that's for sure. Okay. I just want to explore some of the recent reporting about the backdrop to the war and the thinking in the Israeli leadership. I'm sure you know, the New York Times was reporting the other day that the Mossad chief went to the prime minister with a plan and said he believed that within days of the war's beginning, his service would likely be able to galvanize the Iranian opposition, igniting riots, other acts of rebellion that could lead to the collapse of the regime imminently.

12:39So how did Mossad get it so wrong? So I have not seen the power of the Mossad. I see some reporting now that indicates Mossad never said this will happen right away, that there's a timeline issue. After strikes are complete within, I think, between six months and a year, the Iranian regime will fall. And by the way, we can think of the counterfactual. We've seen these massive protests in Iran in January, right? And we also knew that Ayatollah Alekh-Mainai was going to be 87 years old soon. So there is a hypothetical scenario that even without the strikes, this regime would fall in a year. We can never test this.

13:23But this is sort of in the defense of the Mossad. There's a timeline issue that was not reported. In that regard, you know, this leak, whether it came from the U.S. or it came from the IDF, there's a lot of competition in terms of the IDF and Mossad here and the politicians and who wants to throw the Mossad under the bus. But here's where I would have expected some agency right on the part of leadership, both Israel and the U.S., to say, okay, this is one idea and one option, but what if it doesn't work? And you can't base decisions on hypothetical operational plan to topple a regime. My fear is that these reports, and I'm sure they're based on truth and New York Times does most serious reporting, they only would only, I'll try to be diplomatic.

14:12There are a lot of people around the world that blame Israel for dragging the US into this war. And these reports only strengthen this narrative, which I think for Israel is very, very dangerous. Dangerous because of American public opinion. Because of American public opinion, first and foremost, American legislators, obviously. And I'm mind to say that whereas the Israeli public and the Israeli government, Prime Minister Netanyahu sees the international communities between Pennsylvania Avenue and Capitol Hill, it also matters what public opinion is in other countries. You know, Israel is part or it's not part of Europe, but it has the most important trade relationships with Europe.

14:59Most investment, open skies, flights, cultural initiatives, the Israeli academia and R &D cannot survive without European funding. I mean, it matters what the world thinks and relationships matter. And I haven't even begun speaking about, you know, the neighborhood, the Middle East. I mean, it's already clear that Israel has become more divisive within the Republican Party and the MAGA movement, as well as within the Democratic Party. And also there's polling suggesting that more Americans today are sympathetic towards the Palestinians than the Israelis. I want to ask how closely connected to that you are, like what you really feel when you see numbers like that, Shira, because you were born in New York, you moved to Israel with your parents.

15:49You are a citizen of both countries. Yes, you know, it's very, I have no issues with having greater sympathy for the Palestinians, right? And I don't think it needs to be a zero-sum game, but I will speak of the decline of the favoured views of Israelis around the world. I think it's very dangerous strategically because, first of all, for Israel, the pillar of defense of national security is the special relationship with the United States. And I'm not sure this relationship can be sustained, definitely not with these trends that we're seeing at the moment. On the personal level, there's also an issue.

16:24The relationship between Israel and the Jewish community has been also a pillar of Israel's strength. and as someone who roams in both of these communities, I often find that the Jewish community is awfully concerned in the U.S. On both sides, Republicans and Democrats, most of the Jews in the United States are Democrats, but on both sides there's real concern for Israelis. I don't think that Israelis are fully sympathetic to American Jews and diaspora Jews in the same way and not understanding how difficult it has been also for American Jews, and I'm speaking mostly American Jews now just elsewhere because this is the community I know the most, how short it's been for them over the past two and a half years, starting after October 7, obviously, with protest campuses, but not only that, rising anti-Semitism and being sort of associated with the country that might have dragged the U.S.

17:22into war. I don't buy this narrative, but it's definitely a narrative that is there. And Israel does not understand that what it does affects an entire community that is connected to Israel and is important to Israel. So, you know, both on the strategic levels, but also on the personal levels, it's very worsen. And here in the UK, where I'm speaking to you from in the last few days, there's been an attack on ambulances belonging to a Jewish charity in London, which has been chilling not only for the Jewish community, but many others watching. We definitely see the rise of anti-Semitism. And I'm not one that thinks that any criticism of Israeli policy is anti-Semitism.

18:03There's a very clear difference. But the numbers speaks for themselves. There's a rising anti-Semitism and it feeds into a narrative. And in Israel, both the policymakers and the public is, I don't want to say oblivious to this, but not as sensitive as they need to be, not understanding that it will backfire.

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20:48On the relationship with the United States, regardless of who took whom to war, there is something fundamentally different that happened last summer with the 12-day war and now, that the two countries have been part of this war together, one that, as you said, the Israeli prime minister has wanted for a long time. But this has been a joint enterprise. What happens, do you think, if that changes? What happens if Donald Trump decides to stop? And if you look at his later statements, there's very little mention of Israel. He says, we are very willing to do a deal, i.e. the U.S. is willing to do a deal with Iran.

21:29Yes, yes. So very big. I mean, I think there is a difference between the 12-day war and what we're seeing now, obviously. In the 12-day war, the United States, President Trump gave a green light for Israel and after Israel, cleared the sky and did all the work. You know, the United States came with their immense capabilities, performing the mission of, you know, FURDO and using capabilities were developed just for this specific mission and it was game over. And even then, it was very clear that even if this was portrayed as a partnership, Trump, at the end of the day, did tell Israeli planes which were in the air to strike Tehran to turn around.

22:09And I have heard from people who were in the command center of the Air Force, where you had the chief of the Israeli Air Force with one phone with the pilots and another phone with Prime Minister Netanyahu on getting them an order in real time. You know, come back, come back, come back. So this was an order, straight order from the U.S. president, not from the Israeli prime minister. What we have here is a very different partnership. And you have Israeli Air Force officers, even senior level and in double digit numbers who are stationed in CENTCOM and vice versa, working together. But in terms of the decision making, it's not a partnership.

22:47There's one boss. And this boss is President Trump. But it's very clear, and Israelis across the board, including in the defense establishment, are saying this. When President Trump says, we're done, Israel is going to be done. It's not Lebanon or the other friends. And Israelis could be disappointed at this outcome because an agreement is not something that Israel favors. So there's no question in your mind, Israel could not, would not continue if the US calls it a day and doesn't deal with Iran. I mean, I can't say no chance at all, but I'll put 99.9999 % that Israel stops. And I think this is why we're likely to see not that the tempo has changed.

23:31But if you listen to some leaks that came out in the first days of the war, because it was unknown in Israel how long, what's going to be the duration of this, what started as an operation, and I think undeniably is the war, that Israel said, we had to strike whatever we can as fast as possible, because this can be stopped in a moment and we would have to abide by it. Whether Iran stops, it's a different question. Whether there's another round in the future. But I think that if there is a declaration of some sort of a ceasefire and agreement, Israel will have to abide by it. And what then happens to Lebanon?

24:10Because that That has been this other front, including with ground forces that has opened up in the last few weeks, including the blowing up of bridges. And now the finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, saying that the Litani River in southern Lebanon should be a new border between Israel and Lebanon. Yes. Now, if that happens, and that's essentially a new occupation. Right, exactly. It's probably not likely, but I would have hoped that whatever agreement, if there is one with Iran, it is a broader agreement that also includes Hezbollah. I'm not sure the U.S. attention is there at the moment, and I'm not sure Israel is pushing for it.

24:50But absent this, what is now a very secondary front, Lebanon, could turn into the primary front, with Israel just digging deeper. We're seeing targeted strikes, but we're also seeing the idea of taking more and more positions inside Lebanon and creating de facto a buffer zone. It is not an occupation at the moment, but it could turn into one absent a diplomatic agreement. And, you know, Israel has a long history of occupying land in Lebanon, and it never delivered the result that Israelis want. And so I'm very concerned about this folly. And I do hope that the international community, and it needs to be led by the United States, sees this idea of capitalizing on military achievements in Iran and the fact that the Iranians are going to be busy and maybe unable to fund their proxies at the same level.

25:46And taking advantages of really remarkable historical trends in Lebanon, anti-Hezbollah sentiment, and I don't want to say welcoming of Israel, but no longer the taboo of imagining even peace with Israel. And there's really an opportunity in Lebanon that we risk squandering now with digging deeper, doing something that, you know, this definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. This is how I see the Israeli campaign at the moment. And no one questions the fact that the Israeli North, the Galilee, shouldn't be shelled by a terrorist organization on the border, and that the Lebanese state should do more to contain it.

26:34But Israel has a partner in Lebanon. And if Israel occupies parts of Lebanon, it's going to lose the partner. The Lebanese government, you mean, who would like to see Hezbollah disarmed and its influence brought to an end? Yeah, it's the Lebanese government and we have the Lebanese public and, you know, the Shiite community, which is the Hezbollah support base. We're seeing also a fractures in this support base. People are representative of the Shia community. They're saying, well, Hezbollah doesn't represent us. They care more about the interests of Iran than the interests of the Lebanese. And so, you know, this whole idea of disarming terrorist organizations, it can never be a solely military endeavor.

27:16It hasn't worked anywhere. And where you are with the IRA, it's never just a kinetic activity. It has to come with the support. There is a political party that's not less important. And this opportunity for taking on Hezbollah politically is available now in Lebanon. The Lebanese government needs help. They don't need to be scratched from the side. Are you even saying, Shira, that the policy of disarming terrorist organizations, even as you look at Gaza, that ultimately this strategy on Hamas has not worked and will not work? as we talk now and maybe under the fog of war, everyone forgot where Gaza is, but we are five months in after signing a ceasefire in Gaza that, thank goodness, brought the Israeli hostages back home and allowed the Palestinians in Gaza some sort of respite of relief.

28:08But as we're looking at Gaza, you have Hamas, the de facto sovereign governor of half of Gaza, where most of the people are. Israel occupies the other half. There are so many indications that Hamas is really the governing power. With arms on the street, Israel, for two years, tried to disarm Hamas kinetically, and it hasn't worked. It has to come with a political part where Palestinians will disarm Palestinians. It has to be something the Palestinian people choose to do. Now, I do hope that after this Iran round finishes, we can focus on Gaza, where there is a framework, we can criticize some elements of it, but the 20-point plan that President Trump had delivered and a national technocratic committee that's supposed to come into Gaza and Palestinian Authority that is supposed to come back at one point after, but none of these things have advanced.

29:03But the opportunity still exists, and we shouldn't miss that either, because otherwise what it means is that Israel will go back to fighting in Gaza as well. And this could happen in the next few months. And would that be with, again, the blessing of the Americans? Because there's this little recognized internationally body, the Civil Military Cooperation Center, which is essentially part of the US army. And that is in southern Israel. I think you know about that organization. It's It's supposed to be monitoring the ceasefire and keeping an eye on what's happening on the ground in Gaza. Yeah, I'm a frequent visitor to the CMCC and I think it has a lot of advantages monitoring the ceasefire and coordinating aid or goods that go into Gaza.