How are voters feeling before Election Day?

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0:16Tamara Keith: All right, we are in the homestretch before voting ends. So make sure you hit that follow button in your podcast app of choice so you don't miss a single episode of ours. On this episode, one last NPR PBS News Marist poll to get a pulse check on how voters are feeling as they cast their ballots. What are the big issues? What are the alarm bells for each party? Let's get into it.

0:42Tamara Keith: It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Elena Moore. I also cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. 31 million Americans and counting have already voted. This election is getting real. And Domenico, I want to start with some of the top lines. What does our poll tell you about how people are feeling just before voting ends? Yeah, I mean, it sort of sets the stage for what we've been talking about all along here. But now we're a week from Election Day. So it's really notable that things have sort of solidified, it seems, that Democrats have an eight point advantage on what's known as the generic congressional ballot, meaning when pollsters ask, who would you vote for if the election was held today in your own congressional district?

1:27Democrats have an eight point lead on that among likely voters. And this is the first time that Marist has done a likely voter screen in our NPR PBS News Marist poll. It's 10 points with registered voters. I think it's also notable that President Trump has a 38 percent approval rating with registered voters, but a 40 percent approval rating with likely voters. So you notice there a bit of a rounding of the edges, a little bit of a ticking up. Democrats are still favored to win the House is what this tells me, but that the gains could be somewhat limited structurally. And because, you know, they're playing on a lot of Republican turf and you've got a lot of Republicans now starting to pay attention to this election.

2:07And that could mitigate how well Democrats do.

2:10Tamara Keith: So just help us out here. How does Marist differentiate between likely voters and registered voters? And, you know, how much does that matter? It matters. And it's hard, right? Like likely voter screens, likely voter models are the special sauce of of polling because they don't tell you exactly how they do it. Right. Transparency is the number one thing when it comes to whether or not a poll is good. But this is the one area where all pollsters, no matter how transparent they are, and Marist is very transparent. If you were to read our methodology in our crosstabs, you'd be like, that's way too much information.

2:45I don't even know what that means. Thank you for sharing, though. It's essentially based on who they're trying to figure out who's most likely to vote of the group of people that they got. Right. So what they're looking for is levels of enthusiasm, how strongly they think that what the outcome is matters, what their past voting histories are. And they did, you know, go and make sure that all of these folks are registered to vote. These are real people, as Elena can tell you, because she spoke to some of them. You know, they apply what's known as a likely voter screen to the registered voters and essentially put a weight on it to say that this is what it would look like most likely on Election Day if it were held today.

3:26Tamara Keith: So, Elena, as Domenico said, you have been calling and having conversations with people who responded to the poll. What did they tell you about the top issues they're considering as they go to vote? Yeah, I mean, no huge surprises really all year for years now. We've been talking with voters around the country who say they feel, you know, economic strain, financial strain with high costs. And I think this last round of polling and the conversations I have are no different. You know, people are concerned about prices, whether that's the cost of groceries or the cost of gas and diesel. Some voters directly kind of link that to the president and his policies, whether that's tariffs or the war in Iran.

4:08But we remember when people were linking that to former President Joe Biden's policies. So, again, this is not a new concern, though there are new influences. There's new developments. And a reminder that President Biden famously did not do great. Right, right. And so, yeah, that's still the number one concern. High costs around just over a third of likely voters in this poll said that cost of living is top of mind. That was plurality. But right after that is preserving democracy that ranked second at a third, followed by around 21 percent who said immigration. And it goes down from there, 12 percent foreign policy, 5 percent health care and so on.

4:48And so I think that shows there really is like this uniting gripe, whether, you know, people blame different sides, different causes is this high cost of living. Yeah. And preserving democracy was the number one issue by a little bit for Democrats. Notably, it was pretty high and resonated with independence as well. And I think within preserving democracy is something that's not getting picked up, but is getting picked up in other polls. I've asked explicitly about this, and that's about corruption. You know, essentially, people don't really like Washington. They don't like the political parties.

5:20Both parties are underwater when it comes to how people view them favorably or unfavorably. But corruption has started to sort of tick up as a thing that people are talking about. And there's been a lot of coverage of, you know, quote unquote, scandals and corruption or things that can be perceived as corruption in the Trump administration. Certainly Ken Paxton, who's the Republican Senate candidate in Texas, has faced this exact word of corruption from James Tallarico, the Democrat there. When I was in Texas last week, there were billboards all over the place that said Ken Paxton, the most corrupt politician in America.

5:51It adds all over pushing that notion as well. So I think that the candidates who figure out that they can sort of peg corruption to one side or the other, they're going to be the ones they feel who have the energy behind them to kind of pick up some of these angry, disaffected voters.

6:07Tamara Keith: You mentioned that the issues have been relatively static. What does that tell us? Like affordability has been the top issue for a very long time. The White House, the president has not exactly embraced that concept. He's called it a hoax. His economic advisers are out on TV saying, oh, no, really, it's fine. Wages have kept up. Like there's a lot of sort of dismissing of the problem. Yeah. Well, I thought it was interesting in this poll how Maris specifically asked at one point what kind of like qualities in a candidate that voters were looking for. And the options were, you know, are you more interested in voting for a candidate that's talking about change and new ideas versus someone with, you know, a proven record that's been there a long time?

6:55And a majority chose the change candidate. And, of course, that can be interpreted different ways. But I found that to be kind of in line with this larger rebuke that we're seeing of the administration. And it feels like, you know, we've seen candidates on both sides try to tap into this, like, growing frustration among voters of wanting to reject the status quo. And again, that can be interpreted different ways, too. And so I think seeing these issues continue to fester for people, it may be contributing to that growing sense of like, let's try something new. Change is one of the most important and largest factors in politics, a force for getting people out to vote.

7:37It's an incredibly effective message in midterm elections when the opposition party is most fired up. I thought it was notable in our poll that once again, 53 percent said that they strongly oppose the job that President Trump is doing. That is likely voters and registered voters, no matter how you applied that screen. Fifty three percent. That is higher than after January 6th. OK, this is the highest we've ever seen for the opposition to Trump. And the party usually with the energy are the ones who usually do well, especially in midterms. That happens to be opposition parties because in 18 of the 20 elections since World War II, the party in charge has seen losses in the House.

8:19Tamara Keith: So how enthusiastic are people to vote in this election? Yeah, it's mixed, right? Right. I mean, on average, midterm elections see about 42 percent of registered voters turning out to vote since 1992. That's much lower than what we see in presidential elections, which is around 60 percent or so. Now, I will say in the Trump era, those boats have floated a little higher because he's tended to turn out some of these groups that maybe don't vote as often in some of these years. But what we're seeing overall here is Democrats with the enthusiasm advantage. And the column that I like to look at is very enthusiastic.

8:56The people who say that they are very enthusiastic to vote because those are people who are probably going to vote. Right. And Democrats, 71 percent of Democrats call themselves very enthusiastic compared to only 61 percent of Republicans. Yeah, I mean, and I heard that firsthand. I talked to a voter in Texas. His name is Chris Agin. He's 43 years old, votes for Democrats and is voting for James Tallarico in that really, you know, closely watched Senate race against Ken Paxton. And he told me he never really considered himself an impassioned midterm voter in the past, but that's changed. This year is different.

9:33This year, it feels like every opportunity to vote is a referendum against the party in power. And, you know, obviously that that kind of embodies this this drive, this momentum that maybe other Democrats around the country are feeling. I will say the caveat I will have with this is that some of the key pillar Democratic groups are less than very enthusiastic to go and vote. It doesn't mean they won't, but they're not saying right now that they are very enthusiastic. And I'm looking at groups like those under 45 years old, those Gen Z and millennials, only 42 percent say they're very enthusiastic.

10:07Non-white voters, 53 percent. White women with college degrees, 56 percent say that they are very enthusiastic to vote. That's lower than we saw in 2018. And I think that's notable because white voters with college degrees are among the highest to vote in these midterm elections. And because of white voters with college degrees and older voters who have trended toward Democrats since Donald Trump has been elected, those are two groups to watch because they tend to vote in higher shares.

10:35Tamara Keith: All right, we're going to take a quick break and we will have more in a moment. Stay tuned for the following announcements and messages from our sponsors. This message comes from BetterHelp. Your brain has limited storage. So why is it still holding on to that embarrassing moment from years ago? BetterHelp is an online therapy platform that gives you space to talk about what's taking up too much of yours. BetterHelp is now in network with more than 125 health plans, with many co-pays as low as$15 for eligible members. And if you don't have eligible insurance, you can still get 20 % off your first month.

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12:19Tamara Keith: Welcome back. And Elena, as you've been talking to people who took part in this poll, what else have they been telling you about how they're feeling? The great thing about, you know, talking with voters after the poll is it personalizes the responses that we got. And it also shows us how, you know, things are not black and white. One of the conversations I had was with a 38-year-old independent voter in North Carolina named Matthew Schroeder. He has a history of switching sides and, you know, big elections. He voted Trump in 2024, Joe Biden in 2020. He's not happy with Trump's performance, but says that he's also not happy with Democrats and how some of the national leaders have navigated this increased popularity of Democratic socialism among parts of the party.

13:04So he says that's pushing him to vote for Republicans in his Senate race. I know Roy Cooper is considered a moderate, but the fact that the Democratic Party is even letting some of these voices be heard a little bit more is not something I'm interested in in the least. So because of that, it's not a vote of yes for Trump as much as a vote of Democrats need to go a completely different direction.

13:26Tamara Keith: Roy Cooper is the former governor of North Carolina, who is the Democratic nominee. And many Democrats have pointed to as like this model moderate that, you know, like perhaps this is the path to winning in southern states. And here's your voter saying, yeah, that's cool, but I'm voting for the Republican because of things that Democrats in New York or Colorado said. Right. Yeah. So he's going to vote for Michael Watley, the GOP candidate who has Trump's endorsement, who Trump has advocated for. And yeah, I just found it so interesting because we talk about how like a lot of politics is local and a lot of people are really just like trying to like focus on the issues.

14:04And I think it's fascinating that this guy said, you know, oh, he's I'm not letting, you know, these bigger concerns about Republicans and Trump influence this vote. I'm actually kind of concerned about the bigger like narratives on the Democratic side.

14:17Tamara Keith: And I'm now thinking about conversations I've had with voters in Pennsylvania and Nevada and North Carolina, all over the country where voters have brought up this Democratic socialist thing, the rise of the far left. And I think that that is a signal that Republicans have actually done a fairly effective job at nationalizing some of this. That's true. But I will say, I think it's very funny when we talk to these people that they don't fit this black and white mold, as Elena is talking about. And it reminds me of the fact that a lot of AI companies are trying to create what's called synthetic respondents because we've seen response rates go so low.

14:57I mean, who picks up their phone, right? Or who answers a text exactly? So they're trying to figure out how can we create people that are fake, that look like, you know, based on what the data is and what it says and how they might respond. I think these calls that we make should tell you that you can't apply mathematical computational logic to the way a lot of people feel about these elections. Also, like even though we have talked to moderates in these swing states, places with competitive elections, there are also like, you know, wings of the Democratic Party that are very excited and enthusiastic about this new crop of or new generation even of more left leaning Democratic Socialist progressive candidates.

15:39So I think these conversations are always really interesting because they remind us how many intra-party divides, larger political divides are, you know, just below the surface when you look past the horse race.

15:51Tamara Keith: And even though Trump is deeply unpopular, there is also a well of Trump supporters who are mad that Republicans in Congress haven't done enough to support it. Oh, yeah. That was also the thing talking to this young man in North Carolina, which was like just because people are upset with Republicans and Trump is not a one for one translation into like positive feelings for Democrats. And I think that's really important that like this is obviously a challenging election for the GOP and Trump's, you know, Trump more broadly and his legacy here. But that does not mean that Democrats are in the clear.

16:26In our poll, you see some of this Democratic nervousness crop up because when we asked who you would vote for on the congressional ballot, 98 percent of Democrats said the Democrat. But when we asked, who do you think will win, only 81 percent of Democrats said the Democrats. So that's a drop of 17 points that outpaced the Republicans who felt that way, who should be nervous about this election and particularly in the House. I will also say about the Democratic socialists, we did break out in this poll, you know, people who are self-identified Democratic socialists. I found very interestingly that they are very engaged with this election.

17:02They care a lot about equality, economic equality, and that people should accept the results of the election far more, by the way, than MAGA supporters.

17:12Tamara Keith: So just stepping back, are there things that Democrats should be staying up worrying about? Are there things that Republicans should be staying up worrying about in this poll? Yeah, I think we've gone through a lot of what Republicans need to worry about. I think there are some warning signs for Democrats for the potential tepid wave that could be there. I mean, they could get a big wave. Who knows what winds up happening? A lot of times elections break late. But a couple of things in the poll. One is, are you paying close attention to the election? Last month, Democrats had a pretty sizable edge on that.

17:45This month, that gap has completely closed. Now Republicans are starting to pay attention. And when you're talking about nine in 10 House races are taking place in districts that Trump won in 2024 and all of the five toss up races in the Senate are places where Trump won by double digits. It's, well, that means that if Republicans are starting to pay more attention, that there might be more Republicans who go out and vote. And it might mean that you don't see as high gains for Democrats. But that's just one indicator if we see Democrats don't make huge gains afterward. Yeah, it's definitely a good reminder that like a lot of these like so-called toss up races in the House and in the Senate are Republican territory that Democrats are trying to make gains in rather than like protecting current spots.

18:32And so like a lot of these are toss up races. And like that's a really challenging thing to do to flip a seat in general, let alone like a handful. And Democrats would need to net four seats in the Senate. And yeah, the Republicans' margin in the House is small. But as we know, a small House majority kind of lends itself to a whole new set of problems. And so, like, again, how big this wave is is really going to be the question.

18:59Tamara Keith: I hate to, like, come back to this, but, like, it really does depend on who shows up to vote. All right, let's leave it there for today. Come back tomorrow for more from the campaign trail. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Elena Moore. I also cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

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