They voted for Trump in 2024. Now, they regret it.

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0:18Tamara Keith: These swing voters in Georgia backed President Trump in 2024. How do they feel about that choice now? If you listen to Charles, Richard and Cedric, not great. I've been disappointed. It just seems like everything has gone downhill. I'm looking for something different. Can Democrats capitalize?

0:38Tamara Keith: It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Ashley Lopez. I also cover politics. And I'm Mara Liason, senior national political correspondent. So, Ashley, we have been doing these focus groups, bringing them to the podcast every month, all year long. This is the last one before the midterms. Tell us about the types of voters that we've been hearing from. So these are swing voters. These are people who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and then Trump in 2024. And they're a mix politically. You've got independents, Republicans and Democrats in these groups. We work with Engages, which is a market research firm, and Nelson Recruiting, which finds people for us.

1:18And they travel around the country to battleground states. So like Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, you know, the big swing states that we know. And just so you know, we say this every time, but a focus group is not a poll. We know from polling large numbers of people what people are feeling about politics this cycle. We do the focus group to find out why they're feeling that way. It's a way to get in-depth into voters' thinking. And just a note, we only identify these voters by their first names.

1:47Tamara Keith: And based on the audio we just played, there is some level of discontent among these voters. What are the issues that are really reaching them? I mean, it's the economy. Month after month since we started this, the economy has been the number one thing that people have been upset about. That has only become more pronounced now that oil prices have also been jumping up. And, you know, there's a mix of stuff. People don't like the way that immigration officers have been carrying out immigration enforcement. The war in Iran is very, very unpopular. So it's sort of the things that you see in the polls, like the things that most Americans are upset about, these swing voters are also very upset about.

2:26Most all of them told us that they have had to give up something that they used to be able to afford, but they can't now, like taking a vacation or going out to eat. And the thing that's so interesting about these voters is they connect the war in Iran and tariffs with higher prices. They draw a direct straight line between those two Trump policies and the fact that they're paying more. Another big issue for them is AI and data centers, which are two different issues. data centers because they make their electricity bills go up, AI because it potentially could destroy a lot of jobs, and maybe even erase humanity.

3:01You know, one of the folks we heard from was Charles, who identifies as a Democrat. You know, he says that all the wars and, you know, even Trump's economic policies, which is why he voted for him, are what has brought him to, like, the level of disappointment that he feels now. I've been disappointed. I just don't feel like there's any positive to this administration at all. While inflation has only gotten worse, there have been more wars. The tariffs haven't done anything. It seems like we have more enemies now than ever. I think a lot of voters get the sense that this isn't going to get better anytime soon, which is why they are looking for change.

3:35And a lot of them even say they regret their vote. And I will say this was one of the first times we had a really large number of these voters, 10 out of the 12, which, again, this isn't a poll, so it's not scientific, but it is meaningful that 10 out of the 12 folks there said they regret voting for Trump. Michelle was one of them.

3:50Tamara Keith: He hasn't done any of the things he said he would do. He's done a lot of things that he didn't say he would do that I feel are extremely detrimental. And realness has moved to embarrassment for me. When she's talking about realness, she also said in that discussion that the reason she liked Trump was that he sounded real and he didn't talk like a normal politician. I mean, he still doesn't talk like a normal politician, but he's also saying things frequently that fly in the face of what people are experiencing. Well, and I think also a lot of like swing voters, especially earlier on, look past a lot of this stuff.

4:27They kind of accepted that this is who Trump was. But time and time again, if they're getting disappointed with the economy, if they're if he's not solving the material problems that he wanted them to, he voted for them to do, like Michelle said, the quirks of a personality or whatever you want to say, the things that they that, you know, probably rubbed them the wrong way about Trump before, but that they look past now they can't look past it because they're angry. And, you know, the other thing that we found in these groups, which was very surprising to me, was how much these Trump voters are open to economic populism.

4:56And I'm talking about more help from the government. They want higher Social Security benefits. They're angry about billionaires. You know, in the past, the Republican form or the right-wing form of populism was mostly cultural, about immigrants, shadowy elites in Washington, et cetera. But now these voters are talking about billionaires should be taxed more, which is something you wouldn't think you'd hear from Republican voters voted for Trump. Here's Richard, who we heard before in the intro. The billionaires are making more price of gas. They're still profiting, profiting, profiting. And it's taken away from the lower class.

5:34Right. I think there needs to be some kind of equal common ground to that. Yeah. Doesn't sound like a Republican from 20 years ago, for sure. I mean, even from 10 years ago.

5:43Tamara Keith: Sounds like Bernie Sanders. Yeah. OK. So we have established that these voters are unhappy, that they voted for Trump and many of them are now saying they regret their vote. But there's a difference between being unhappy with the president and saying in these midterms, I'm going to vote for Democrats instead of Republicans. Right. And this is something we've been asking voters about all year long in every focus group. OK, you're unhappy with Trump. Does that mean you're going to vote for a Democrat as a check on him? And most of them said no. Almost all of them did until this focus group in Georgia.

6:19And several of these voters said that they consider their vote to be a check on Trump. Here's Jennifer, who self-IDs as a Republican. And when asked whether she approves or disapproves of the president, she said net, net, net. She was the only one in our group, by the way. Net, net, net that she still does approve of him. But here's what she said about how she's going to vote in November. If I see somebody who is blindly a Trump supporter, you know, that is something that I would not vote for that person because, you know, it worries, would they really have the best outlook for us in their mind?

7:00And what's so interesting is Donald Trump has said famously, pretend I'm on the ballot. These voters are taking him at his word. They consider him to be on the ballot and they consider their vote to be a message to him.

7:11Tamara Keith: I mean, that is a warning, like a flashing red warning for the president and his party who have really decided to make these midterms about him. Well, they haven't decided. He has decided. There are plenty of Republicans who wish he hadn't said that. Yes, but that's what, you know, he's traveling around the country. He's going to Georgia again tomorrow. Like he is he is putting himself front and center. Yeah. And if you think about it from a Republican candidate's point of view, they kind of are in a bind, because if you look at how the primaries played out, going against Trump did hurt a lot of people.

7:44That was a political misstep for a lot of people. But yes, now when you move into a general where the general mood in the country is very anti-Trump, very negative, it's now an albatross for a lot of these candidates. So, you know, there you have a lot of voters who are now paying attention for the first time, because as Mara said, we've been checking in month after month and people are like, I'm still looking into it. I'm still thinking about it. People really put off these kinds of questions. And now that we are just a few weeks away from Election Day, people are paying attention. And I mean, this is something we heard from a lot of voters, including Cedric, who we heard from earlier.

8:16He's an independent voter. I think we're not going in the right direction, so I don't want to vote for a candidate that's not going to stand up to him or they're going to go along with his policies. You know, the biggest motivator for voters' behavior is something called negative partisanship. In other words, people go into the voting booth and they cast their vote to stop someone from winning, not necessarily because they're thrilled with the person they're voting for. And that's what seems to be motivating these voters. They're not talking about how thrilled they are to vote for the Democrat.

8:45They're just talking about they don't want someone who's going to stand by Trump. And, you know, one other thing to remember in terms of Trump's approval rating, although he still does have a pretty strong hold on the MAGA base, he is in the high 30s. That is down to bare metal. That is the Republican base in the United States is in the high 30s. And I don't think he's going to get any lower because he's down to his bare metal base. All right.

9:10Tamara Keith: Let's take a quick break and we will be back with more in a moment. Stay tuned for the following announcements and messages from our sponsors.

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10:37Tamara Keith: Welcome back. And a note here before we go on, we are recording this mere hours before you hear it because the news is changing so fast. We try to get new episodes out as quickly as possible. And the best way to make sure you hear those episodes right when they're available is to follow the show wherever you listen. On Apple, that means looking for the big plus sign on our show page. On Spotify and the NPR app, there's a big old follow button you can smash. Do that and make sure you are always up to date with the latest show. Ashley, this group of voters was in Georgia. And there are some big races on the ballot in Georgia this election year.

11:21Tamara Keith: How are they feeling about them? Well, we talked to them about the two big statewide races. So the governor's race and the closely watched Senate race there. And, you know, it's interesting. There's a little bit of ticket splitting that we're hearing a little bit of. But when it comes to and that's mostly because of the governor's race. But, you know, I was very surprised to see how across the board there were seem to be very positive feelings about the incumbent Senator John Ossoff. And he's running against Congressman Mike Collins, who is Trump endorsed. Right. And that seemed to be, as I mentioned, that albatross around a lot of Republican candidates.

11:56A lot of voters did not like that Mike Collins was aligned with Trump. Let's hear from Charles. I just think Mike Collins is kind of just a puppet for Trump. And I can't really respect somebody like that. So if I had to make a choice, it would just be all stuff.

12:13Tamara Keith: So they're following closely enough to know who Mike Collins is and that he was endorsed by Trump and that he's affiliated with Trump. Yeah. And, you know, this is another instance where 10 out of the 12 people said they regret voting for Trump and 10 out of the 12 said they were voting for John Ossoff. And that included some Republicans. Actually, I want to hear from Jennifer again, who, again, is that Republican voter that we heard from earlier. I consider myself Republican, but I feel like Ossoff has proved himself. He is a Democrat and he votes mostly Democratic, but he, I think, is a little bit more bipartisan in his support of Georgians.

12:51And he seems to have all Georgians, you know, in mind when he's making decisions. And I think he's, yeah, so I think he's a good person. I feel confident with him. Yeah. You know, John Ossoff is a really interesting character in this year's midterms. First of all, this is not a marquee Senate race. He has a big enough lead that people aren't paying much attention to it. Republicans have also pulled a lot of resources out of Georgia. But he has pulled off what I call the Susan Collins trick. He is a Democrat, the only Democrat running for reelection this cycle in a red state. Susan Collins is the only Republican incumbent running for reelection in a blue state.

13:32But he, like her, has paid meticulous attention to his constituents. And that's what this woman is talking about. She knows about him because he shows up at every pothole-filling event. And also, he's pretty tough on Trump. He is not somebody in the mushy middle. He votes, as Jennifer just said, mostly Democratic. But he's managed to pull off this kind of secret sauce or he seems to have the secret sauce of being very, very pro-constituent but still being able to take the case against Trump. Yeah.

14:08Tamara Keith: I mean, Georgia is more of a purple state. I'll put it to you this way. I do think that there are still a lot of Republicans in Georgia who want to be voting for Republicans. I think the reason why there was a little bit of ticket splitting like conversation is that Jennifer is probably going to vote for Rick Jackson, who's running for governor and not the Democratic candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, who was the Atlanta mayor for a while. And I think it's really interesting when a politician like Ossoff can pull out the hat trick of feeling bipartisan to people because that is a very rare thing in politics.

14:39But whatever is going on with John Ossoff, it's working marvelously because a bunch of independents and Republicans, you know, and again, this isn't a poll, but this is reflected in the polls, seem to only have good things to say about him. I don't know. And he's lucky because he drew a weak opponent. We wouldn't be having this conversation if the governor Kemp had decided to run. But did anyone say anything bad about John Ossoff on the... No, but it's only 12 people. Yeah, yeah, sure, sure. You're right. You're right. Fair enough.

15:06Tamara Keith: Fair enough. Yeah. But that is rare. People usually have something bad to say, and especially people who voted for President Trump. I mean, it's a little surprising. Yeah. And the knock on most politicians right now is that everyone's hyper-partisan. I do want to broaden out here. You both have been part of these focus groups, monitoring them all year. As we get closer to the election, I'm curious about what kinds of trends or patterns, if anything, that you've seen develop. Well, I'm interested, as I've said before, in this economic populism that's converging on the left and right. And what I'm looking for in the future is which party can capitalize on this.

15:46People seem to be more attracted to liberal economics than they are to giving tax cuts to billionaires. And at the same time, I think that the center of the electorate is a lot more socially conservative than where the Democrats are. So I think the Republicans have to figure out if they can get more economically liberal, and the Democrats have to figure out if they can get more socially conservative. And that's what I'm going to be watching for over time. Well, I am curious to see how the Democratic brand stands up over time because it's still not doing well, despite the fact that all like a bunch of these people still plan to vote for them, mostly because they think the Democrats will be standing up to Trump.

16:26And I don't know how much of the knock against Democrats right now is because they haven't been in a position of power. So they are not just they don't just look weak. They have no power. They are weak. They can't do anything. So if there is a Democratic Congress, either House Senate or both, whether the perception of Democrats will change over time, That is a big if if they get those chambers that we still don't know. But I mean, I think it is interesting, though, that what voters and this was an interesting part of the conversation, what a lot of these swing voters are hoping they get out of the possibility of a mix of power in Congress, which is a Democratic run Congress, is that there will be some stability.

17:01Finally, a check on Trump, someone to say no to some of the the crazier stuff that they think that Trump is doing now. Do the Democrats have the ability to do anything big on that front? We'll see. But if they just look like they're trying, if they get caught trying, who knows what that'll do to the brand. You know, but what's interesting about that is in the past, voters have liked divided government. In other words, they like the idea of a check and a balance. But what's interesting to me and something that I'm going to be watching is Donald Trump does not have much of a legislative agenda. All the things that he does, he can do by executive order and he is doing by executive order.

17:35The Democrats can hold a hearing about it if they end up getting the majority in the House, but they can't really stop him. So what I'm really interested in is if we do get a Democratic House, what does divided government in the era of Trump look like when so little is done by Congress and Donald Trump is asking Congress to do so little?

17:54Tamara Keith: I mean, he hasn't like actually shown a lot of interest in getting things done with Republicans in Congress other than the one big, beautiful bill act, which obviously is sort of the centerpiece of the midterm campaign. I mean, in general, domestic policy hasn't been the focus of his presidency. This is the second term in general. And that is what Congress is for. Right. And he doesn't have much of an economic agenda now past the tariffs. And I think that's what voters are digging him for. And I am curious how voters will read what is inevitable here, which is sure you can have. Let's say you're not going to get a veto-proof majority of Democrats, but if you get a Democrat-run Congress and everything gets vetoed, how will that make Democrats look?

18:34Or will voters think, well, at least they're trying something?

18:37Tamara Keith: Yeah. And, you know, if Democrats were to win the House, there will be investigations. There will be oversight. But oversight doesn't get things done. Oversight does, however, put a check on the executive branch. Although oversight, what Democrats that I talk to are hoping to do is tie oversight to their legislative agenda, which pretty much is just a wish list telling voters what they would do if they did have power, which they won't with Trump still in the White House. So they're going to send an important message about corruption, what they would do about it, prices, what they would do about it while they're holding these hearings.

19:17Tamara Keith: All right. We are going to leave it there for today. Come back tomorrow for our weekly roundup of political news. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Ashley Lopez. I also cover politics. And I'm Mara Liason, senior national political correspondent. Also covers politics. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

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