What is the GOP convention happening this week?

0:00Support for NPR and the following message come from Washington Wise. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. Washington Wise from Charles Schwab is an original podcast that unpacks the stories making news in Washington. Listen at Schwab.com slash Washington Wise. Every presidential election year, political parties hold conventions. You know the deal. Supporters, party bigwigs, they all meet to pick their candidate and really talk about their platform for the upcoming candidates. campaign. This year, though, Republicans are holding what they're calling a midterm convention.

0:36Will it work?

0:39It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. And I'm Mara Liason, senior national political correspondent. Tam, let's just start with this convention. What is it? Where is it? And most importantly, why is it?

0:54Tamara Keith: So it is in Dallas, Texas, and it will be on Wednesday and Thursday nights. And the thing that you described that happens every four years, that is not this. There is no official party business. This is really just a television program, an infomercial, a Trump rally over two nights. There are a number of speakers that have been announced. President Trump is the headliner both nights. One interesting side note is that the NFL season also starts Wednesday and Thursday. So there will be some competition for eyeballs and it's not clear how much coverage this infomercial is going to get. But then it can be sliced and diced and put out over the Internet.

1:41Tamara Keith: And, you know, in this clicks economy, that that is worth a lot. OK, so it seems like President Trump is going to be front and center on this thing. But can you talk broadly about the messaging outside of Trump in terms of the things that we think Republicans are going to focus on in this convention? Well, you can't get outside of Trump. He is the center of the Republican political universe. So what they are going to be talking about is President Trump's accomplishments. That's the way they talk about it. The focus in terms of issues is lowering costs and raising incomes. It's securing the border and protecting American values.

2:24Tamara Keith: So these are broad topics that we're expecting them to address. There will be members of Congress speaking. There will be the president, the vice president, and lots of those like regular people affected by the president's policies who you see at every sort of convention. That will be there, too. I think one thing that is notable is that not all vulnerable Republicans will be there. There are something like 45 competitive races between the House and the Senate. Fewer than half of the people running in those competitive races will be speaking at this convention up on stage. I mean, Mara, what do you make a political strategy here doing an entire midterm convention centered on a president who is historically unpopular at a time when that kind of complicates the lives of many Republicans running in many of these races?

3:17Well, there are two different strategies here, and they're completely incompatible. One is President Trump's strategy. He believes that Republicans do better when he is either on the ballot or front and center. He has told voters, I want you to pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot. Just come out and vote and show up for it. But lots of Republican operatives and members of Congress who are running for re-election do not subscribe to that strategy. They think that an unpopular president, President Trump has approval ratings somewhere in the high 30s to low 40s, is a drag on Republicans. And they'd be better to run their own races and not be seen with him in Dallas at this convention or anywhere else.

3:58And that's the real problem here. I mean, Donald Trump has a firm iron grip on his party. Nobody would dare tell him what he's trying to do is unproductive or unhelpful for Republicans. But he firmly believes this. You know, he believes if everything is about him, his party will do better.

4:16Tamara Keith: And polls do show that Democratic voters are far more energized about these midterms than Republicans. So there is an energy problem. Trump believes and some of his advisers that if they can generate excitement with this convention and other things to to make voters, you know, the term is low propensity voters. And Trump's base has a lot of these people, people who voted for him in 2016, voted for him in 2020, voted for him in 2024, but didn't vote in any of those midterms. There are a lot of voters, in fact, on both sides of the aisle, who are much more motivated to vote in a presidential year.

5:02Tamara Keith: But also we know that this time, at this moment, Democratic voters are much more motivated than Republican voters, which means they are more likely to actually vote in these midterms. One way to look at these midterms is that there are two opposing forces. One set of forces are organic. The motivation of voters, the intensity, that clearly is on the Democratic side. Turnout, we see Democrats turning out with higher numbers in special elections and primaries. The polls are favoring Democrats. The incumbent president is unpopular. He's not taking a back seat, as unpopular presidents have done in the past.

5:40His issues are unpopular. Tariffs are on, data centers. Then there are all these other forces that I would call structural forces that are helping Republicans money. They have vastly more money than Democrats. Individual Democratic candidates might have outraised their Republican opponents, but overall Republican super PACs, campaign committees have much more money, and the Supreme Court just made it easier for them to buy advertising. The other structural advantage is gerrymandering. That clearly goes for the Republicans. And the possible diminishment in the use of mail-in voting. That has the potential to really help Republicans.

6:16So this midterm is going to tell us which of these forces is stronger. I mean, with this convention, though, Tam, I want to go back to this idea that you mentioned of the kind of roughly half or less than half of the candidates running these competitive races showing up at this Republican midterm convention. A lot of things in President Trump's eyes are a sort of fealty test. I feel like we see them all the time. I feel like every primary we talk about this, all the different ways that he is sort of testing people's loyalty. Is there any risk for these Republican candidates who decide not to come to the Trumpapalooza of President Trump and his team kind of turning against them or at least giving them less resources?

6:54Or I don't know. There's just a lot of different ways that having the incumbent president, even if he is unpopular, being against you as a Republican candidate also doesn't seem great. Yeah.

7:03Tamara Keith: And I don't think I fully have the answer to this question. Some candidates simply really do have scheduling conflicts. Some candidates really, truly have deleted references to Donald Trump from their campaign websites. So, you know, I think that midterms, in theory, are 435 different House races with different dynamics in every race, and the candidates should be able to run their own race. President Trump is trying to nationalize it. And, you know, to some extent, Democrats wouldn't mind Trump nationalizing it and making it all about him, too, because he's unpopular. Vice President J.D. Vance was asked about this at the White House press briefing last week that he conducted.

7:43And he said, you know, it's not a big deal.

7:47Tamara Keith: The president and the vice president can go on TV on this convention and make this case. And, you know, some frontline congressman somewhere, you know, like they don't need to do that speech at the convention. They may be better served by staying home. Now, that's J.D. Vance. J.D. Vance is not Donald Trump. Donald Trump, like an elephant, never forgets. But, you know, it's unclear how much he is being told about who's not going to be there. And, you know, like there are a lot of needs all over the country for the campaign war chest that the president has under his influence, let's say. Can I just bring one example about how Trump's desire for revenge does have its limits?

8:32Yes. It kind of goes against the narrative. He did endorse Susan Collins, incumbent Republican senator from Maine, the only Republican Senate incumbent running this year in a state that went for Harris. She voted to convict Donald Trump after January 6th. This was the second impeachment. He'd been impeached in the House and the Senate's job was to convict or not. And she voted to convict and he still endorsed her. So even Donald Trump might not go after every Republican who decided to be a no-show for the convention. I see. So you're basically saying he might pick his spot a little bit more this midterm season.

9:07Tamara Keith: He likes winning. He does like winning. He hates losing. And, you know, in Maine, for instance, he doesn't have an alternative. Right. And I mean, the money speaks louder than words to here, though, in terms of these. There's this super PAC, MAGA Inc., which has this giant war chest that you mentioned, Tam. And there's been a lot of reporting about the anxiety among some Republican candidates over the fact that a lot of this money, millions and millions of dollars are just sitting there and have not been spent and have not been allocated across the country at this point. Mara, do we have any sense on when this money is going to be spent, how this money is going to be spent, or whether it's going to be spent this midterm year?

9:45Well, we know that some of it is being spent already. He's already put$10 million into the Texas Senate race, which is kind of an extraordinary thing that Republicans have to put any money into a Texas Senate race. But he's doing this on behalf of his handpicked nominee, Ken Paxton, who has raised much less money than James Tallarico, his Democratic opponent. The president is sitting on more than$400 million in his super PAC. He has said he's going to spend it, but so far we've only seen him spend it in Texas. However, he has plenty of time and plenty of money. This is probably the most significant way that he can help Republicans.

10:22All right. Let's take a quick break and let's talk about how Democrats are pointing a message as the midterms get closer right after this. Stay tuned for the following announcements and messages from our sponsors. This message comes from BetterHelp. Your brain has limited storage, so why is it still holding on to that embarrassing moment from years ago? BetterHelp is an online therapy platform that gives you space to talk about what's taking up too much of yours. BetterHelp is now in-network with more than 125 health plans, with many co-pays as low as$15 for eligible members. And if you don't have eligible insurance, you can still get 20 % off your first month.

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11:40I just needed to spend my time doing them. Betterment automates the same practices so that I know I'm doing portfolio management and goal-based planning without me having to spend hours of my life doing it. Learn more at Betterment.com. Investing involves risk, performance not guaranteed. And we're back. So, Tam, I want to talk about Democrats and their strategy this midterm year now. Labor Day traditionally seen as the time when campaign season really ramps up. How would you describe how Democrats are thinking about messaging their platform this year?

12:14Tamara Keith: So talking to Democratic campaign officials, it is very clear that their message is the economy and the cost of living. Things are too expensive. One strategist I talked to said the number one, two and three issue for voters is affordability. And that is what Democratic candidates are going to focus on. You know, there may be a side mention of AI data centers, which are unpopular, or a side mention of corruption and people in politics getting ahead while regular people can't afford to buy a house or feel like the American dream is out of reach. But it really all comes back to the economy, which is a big shift from 2024 when the message coming from the top of the ticket on down included a big focus on democracy-related issues and Donald Trump is a threat to democracy and included a large focus on abortion rights and abortion access.

13:14Tamara Keith: That's not really the headline of the Democratic pitch right now. It's an affordability campaign. I feel like, Mara, we've talked about this a lot this year, too. Even when Democrats do touch on these other issues, I feel like with data centers, with corruption, they still seem to be trying to find a way to connect it back to that main theme, right? Yes, and they have to, and they are doing that. Because there's so much corruption, they would say, because Donald Trump is making sweetheart deals for his friends and his family, that's why your prices are going up. The Iran war is unpopular. Why?

13:44Because it's causing you to pay more at the pump. He wants data centers. He says, without data centers, you'll be backward and poor. But people don't see that. They see data centers making their energy prices go up. So I think that Democrats have stumbled upon a message that works and they're trying to weave it into everything that they're running against. I mean, we've established that the political headwinds are kind of moving in their direction for no other reason than just the fact that, you know, it's hard to run in a midterm year when you are the party in power. Right. But what do you think Democrats are worried about at this point?

14:20Lots and lots and lots of things. But I think that specifically, they have a kind of mirror image problem that the Republicans have in Texas. And that's in the state of Michigan, where the Democratic Senate nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, is even at this late date, still struggling to unify his party. And Democrats are very worried about that race. Michigan is a battleground state, but it's mostly blue, and it should be an easy state for it to pick. Democrats have to keep Michigan. They have to keep New Hampshire. They have to keep Georgia. And then in order to get control of the Senate, they have to pick up four in a universe of only six, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Alaska.

15:03So they have a real uphill climb in the Senate. I would say that they are much more confident, cautiously confident about the House. You can almost imagine the sort of like hand-wringing stories, Tam, that if they were, if Democrats were able to win Alaska and North Carolina and Ohio, but then lost Michigan and end up not having control of the Senate and a 50-50 Senate with J.D. Vance as a tiebreaker, like it would be, I don't know, it would kind of like blow up the entire media ecosystem.

15:31Tamara Keith: Well, yes. And I think if that were to happen, then all of the progressive momentum at trying to convince everyday Democratic voters that, yes, progressive ideas can win, that would be dramatically eroded. But that's a big if. We don't know how these races are going to turn out. I'll say that in New Hampshire, the primary is actually happening today. And on the Democratic side, there is another one of these more establishment versus more progressive DSA style candidates. But it's such a late primary that Democrats really are nervous that, you know, the likely Republican nominee is a well-known name in the state of New Hampshire.

16:12Tamara Keith: And so, So, you know, every time a party is spending money to protect a seat that is currently in their hands. So Michigan and New Hampshire both have retiring Democratic senators is money that's not being spent on these reach states into more red areas. And and this is also the case for Republicans, though. if they are struggling in Texas, they aren't able to spend as much money in, you know, say, Michigan or in Georgia. That's right. And, you know, there are some things that make Democrats feel a little more optimistic. We've got a series of polls that now show that the share of Americans who say identify, this is party ID, identify as Democrats, has actually grown.

16:58Democrats really have been in the tank. Their brand has been terrible for quite a number of years. But the latest data from Gallup shows Democrats with a 10 percentage point advantage over Republicans when people are asked what party they identify with, including independents. And this is not just a trend that they're finally going in the right direction. These are absolute numbers. Now, it's also true that in a midterm election, the out party generally is seen more positively. But it's something that Democrats can feel good about.

17:28Tamara Keith: Yeah, I was talking to a Democratic pollster and political consultant John Ancelone, who said when Republicans lose, Democrats win. So if Republicans are unpopular, then even if Democrats are also unpopular, it is still better for Democrats. So he is pretty optimistic in this moment. What else are you guys going to be watching before we go just in the next couple months? Well, I'm going to be watching this convention and not getting very much sleep. and not watching the NFL. I'm sorry. Well, I mean, like, you know, there's a multi-screen experience. I don't know how good the Wi-Fi will be in the convention hall, but, you know, we'll see.

18:02Tamara Keith: Yeah, you know, I am definitely watching for whether Democrats really are able to stretch into redder states. This is an existential question for Democrats going forward. So I guess that's what I'm watching for. Yeah, Democrats have to be able to compete in red states just because of the way that the American political system is set up. States that have a lot of acreage and fewer people are advantaged. And those are the red states. And they have to learn how to do better there. And I think that they are learning in places like North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska. Those are places that Democrats feel could offer a template for the future.

18:42All right. We can leave it there for today. And before we go, just a quick plug for a virtual event that we're doing for our NPR Plus supporters next week. It's on the midterms and the races that could decide the control of Congress. We're also going to be doing a live question and answer during the event, and it's going to give you a chance to ask whatever questions your heart desires to me, Tamara Keith, and Mara Liason. Whatever questions you want, whatever questions have popped into your mind during this podcast, all three of us will be there. It's next Thursday at 2 p.m. Eastern, 11 a.m. Pacific over Zoom.

19:15And for our Plus supporters, check out our bonus episode from August 30th for details on how to register. If you haven't joined Plus yet, what are you waiting for? Get after it. Just join at plus.mpr.org. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

19:30Tamara Keith: I'm Tamara Keepe. I cover politics. And I'm Mara Liason, senior national political correspondent. And thank—oh. Ha! Jesus. We could stay together if you want, too. That would be nice. And thank you for listening. Just hold hands and jump off the waterfall together. And thank you for listening to the MPR Politics Podcast.

19:53Sorry, man. I love it. I love it. Stay tuned for the following announcements and messages from our sponsors. This message comes from Rosetta Stone, offering an alternative approach to language learning. The app guides users to intuitively think in a second language using images and contextual audio, mimicking how people acquire speech as children. The platform also includes advanced speech recognition technology that compares a learner's pronunciation directly with native speakers to refine accent precision. Learn more about their immersion method and the new Rosetta Stone Sapphire app at rosettastone.com.

20:28Support for NPR and the following message come from Washington Wise. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. Washington Wise from Charles Schwab is an original podcast that unpacks the stories making news in Washington. Listen at schwab.com slash Washington Wise.