Why the GOP Is now worried about Ohio

0:00Karen Kasler: Support for NPR and the following message come from Washington Wise. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. Washington Wise from Charles Schwab is an original podcast that unpacks the stories making news in Washington. Listen at Schwab.com slash Washington Wise.

0:17Tamara Keith: So this is going to age me a little bit, but in 2004, very late on election night, I was stationed at the Ohio Secretary of State's office. It was in a basement and we were waiting for the presidential election results to come in. The whole country was waiting on Ohio. And when George W. Bush won Ohio, he won reelection. It was the state to watch. One of the nation's most reliable bellwethers election after election until 2016, when it made a hard right turn in the Trump era. Ohio has been reliably Republican. It stopped being a swing state. But now it's where President Trump and his party are taking a stand, trying to hang on to the U.S.

1:01Tamara Keith: Senate. Vote to put Ohio first and keep Ohio first. Vote to keep America first with Senator John Eustard. John, please come up. Come up. Today on the pod is Ohio back in play.

1:19Tamara Keith: It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And Karen Kassler from Ohio's Statehouse News Bureau is with us. You're in Canton right now. Hey, Karen. Hey, great to talk to you guys. So great to have you on the pod. And let us start with the Senate race. Incumbent Republican John Husted is in a tough re-election bid against former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. Tell us about the two of them.

1:48Karen Kasler: Well, this is a really interesting race because you have two people who have been in the Senate at some point. You have Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat to Bernie Marino in 2024. And then you have John Husted, who was Ohio's lieutenant governor, who was appointed to the seat when J.D. Vance became vice president. So these two fairly experienced, fairly well-known politicians in Ohio. And if Sherrod Brown wins, he'd be one of the few former senators to actually go back to the Senate. But obviously, Houston and the Republicans are trying to keep that from happening. Democrats were super excited when they got Sherrod Brown as a recruit.

2:23to be able to run in this race. And immediately I was getting phone calls from Democratic strategists who were saying, I'm telling you, this race is going to become really tight. In fact, we think we got a really good shot at winning this thing with this environment. It's going to be one of those places that's going to be ripe for a flip. And, you know, there's so many toss up races right now in red places, places that Trump won in 2024. This is one of those. And Democrats feel confident that they come election day, that this will be one that, you know, they might be able to tip in their favor, which isn't something they might have said certainly six months ago.

2:58Tamara Keith: What are the big issues in this race?

3:01Karen Kasler: I think the biggest issue, just like it is nationally, is the economy and affordability. You're hearing a lot of complaints about gas prices, about electricity prices. Ohio, especially central Ohio, has a lot of data centers. And so they get a lot of the grief over how high electric bills have gotten, grocery prices, all of that. But I think in looking at some recent polling, there's also an issue that's coming up as a threat to democracy. And so that, I think, is kind of an interesting thing to note here as people are talking mostly about the economy and affordability. That seems to be in the background of some voters.

3:37Tamara Keith: Yeah. And Domenico, looking at ads in the state, there's been a lot of talk about data centers, as Karen mentions. Yeah, I think this has been one of the most fascinating things that's happened across the country when it comes to messaging around AI, which I think is going to be a huge issue in 2028. We're seeing polling really being against data centers and a lot of the NDAs that we see crop up in local communities to try to get these things greenlit that a lot of people are starting to push back on because they're seeing their utility bills go up. They're seeing their view is ruined in some cases.

4:13So there's been a real NIMBY, not in my backyard, you know, aspect of some of what's happened here. You've also seen a lot of rural communities. We've seen it in Virginia and other places where they're upset because you're starting to see power lines that are going to be going in to try to help power these places. And it's created a sort of rural versus urban divide again, where you have a lot of people in these rural areas saying that, You know, this is bad urban planning. Right. But what has been notable here is that President Trump doubled down on his support for data centers and for AI, saying we have to beat China, while the polling has shown public sentiment to be heavily against this.

4:52And Sherrod Brown's campaign quickly picked up on that and made John Husted the face of AI data centers, knowing that it was a resonant point in the state. You know, and when you have someone like John Husted, who I don't know that many people even in the state of Ohio could pick out of a lineup and who didn't win election to his seat yet. This is somebody who was appointed to this seat. You know, his name ID is just maybe not even as high as Sherrod Brown's, who served in the Senate for a very long time.

5:20Tamara Keith: Karen, you mentioned threat to democracy. What do you mean by that? How's that coming up on the trail?

5:25Karen Kasler: Polling is showing that apparently it's something that a lot of people are talking about. And again, it's just kind of a surprise because I know Democrats have really wanted to take advantage of that over the years. And it's a message that just hasn't seemed to have landed much in Ohio. I mean, I think this time is different in Ohio in general. I mean, it feels to me a little like 2006, which was when Sherrod Brown beat Mike DeWine to go to the U.S. Senate. And it was last year Ohioans elected a Democratic governor. There were Democratic wins all down the ballot. It's starting to feel that way.

5:56Karen Kasler: But the polls might be showing something that's not going to happen. Yeah.

6:00Tamara Keith: And Domenico, one thing, as you raise, that's really fascinating about this race is in one way, there are two incumbents. Another way, there are no incumbents. Well, you know, like it's it's I think that the sort of the normal rules of incumbency might be a little bit scrambled here. Yeah, they definitely are. And the fact is, you're probably not seeing the sort of strength of incumbency for Husted because he didn't win election to his seat. He was appointed, but also because it's a midterm year and you have an unpopular president and you're already sort of pushing a boulder uphill just a little bit.

6:35Unless you have real deep roots and you can separate yourself from the president and say, hey, you know me. I'm authentically like you. I understand your problems. Maybe you don't like how Washington is doing things, but I get you, Ohio.

6:49Tamara Keith: Karen, can you talk about the Trump effect here a little bit? Because he was campaigning there this week. He'll be back over the coming weekend in at least the Cincinnati media market. He is focusing a lot of attention on Ohio. This is a place where he's spending a lot of time where he has been very successful in the past.

7:10Karen Kasler: And you're seeing that in other states, too, that seem to be solidly Republican, and yet he's going back again to visit. I mean, he'll be in Ohio three times at least before the election, two times and then one coming up. He won Ohio by 11 points in 2024. The vice president is from Ohio. I think that there had been a very strong Trump effect going into this. But I think that when you talk about Sherrod Brown in particular, he has run and won when Trump was in office. The only time that he lost was when Trump was on the ballot the same time he was. But he has run in this environment before and has won.

7:49Karen Kasler: So I think that he kind of crosses over a little bit. But the Trump effect has been really strong over the last couple of years. it remains to be seen whether it's going to pay off this time because the winds are definitely moving in a different direction here.

8:03Tamara Keith: Yeah, and it does seem and I'd be curious what both of you think about how concerned Republicans are about Ohio. But it is definitely getting a lot of attention and a lot of money. I looked it up on Ad Impact, which is an ad tracking firm. And from September 1st through Election Day, and so this includes reservations for ads, there will be$325 million spent on the Senate race, a$200 million GOP advantage. Well, Ohio loves its football and kicking into the wind requires a really strong leg. And this is a really, really difficult election because the winds are very strongly against Republicans nationally.

8:45Karen Kasler: And we actually have one of the best football teams in the country, also one of the best baseball teams in the country, if I may shout out the Guardians there. But those are giving opportunities for the campaigns to just do back-to-back-to-back ads. And I've heard that it's actually, in some areas and some time periods, easier and cheaper to run a national ad than it has been to run a local ad because so much of that ad space locally has been taken up. And this goes back, I mean, especially as Ohio has become more competitive, but this does go back to even just a couple of months ago.

9:21Tamara Keith: All right, let's take a break. And when we come back, the governor's race.

9:25Karen Kasler: Stay tuned for the following announcements and messages from our sponsors. This message comes from Rosetta Stone. Rosetta Stone is designed to make language learning intuitive. It mimics how people naturally acquire speech as children, helping users read, write and think in a second language. More at RosettaStone.com. This message comes from Viking, committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on an elegant Viking longship with thoughtful service, destination-focused dining, and cultural enrichment on board and on shore. And every Viking voyage is all-inclusive with no children and no casinos.

10:05Karen Kasler: Discover more at Viking.com. Support for NPR and the following message come from Washington Wise. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. Washington Wise from Charles Schwab is an original podcast that unpacks the stories making news in Washington. Listen at Schwab.com slash Washington Wise.

10:27Tamara Keith: Welcome back. And a note before we go on, we are recording this mere hours before you hear it. Because the news is always changing fast. We try to get new episodes out as quickly as possible. And the best way to make sure that you hear those episodes right when they're available is to follow the show wherever you listen. On Apple, that means looking for the big plus sign on our show page. On Spotify and the NPR app, there's a big follow button you can smash. Do that and make sure you are always up to date on the latest show. So, Karen, let's talk about the governor's race. Incumbent Republican Mike DeWine is termed out, running to succeed him, Democrat Amy Acton, and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.

11:13Tamara Keith: One of those names is definitely familiar to our audience. Who are these people?

11:17Karen Kasler: Well, in contrast to the Senate race, where you have two people who have both been in the Senate, on this side, you have two people who have never held elected office before. You have Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican candidate, who came into this race with a fair amount of name recognition because of his association with the Department of Government Efficiency, the doge cuts that Trump was doing as he was coming into office. Ramaswamy ended up leaving that to come to Ohio to run for governor.

11:44Tamara Keith: Leaving it kind of before he started.

11:46Karen Kasler: Yeah, pretty much. He was named as the leader along with Elon Musk. And then all of a sudden he diverted and came to Ohio where he was planning on running for governor, as he did. And then we have Amy Acton on the other side. She's in an interesting position because as a Democrat, she also was Mike DeWine's health director during COVID. And so that kind of puts her in an interesting space here. Republicans have definitely gone after her for what happened in COVID. But Mike DeWine has actually defended what happened and said that these were his decisions, not Amy Acton's decisions. He has endorsed Ramaswamy, but is just kind of in that interesting space there in between.

12:29You know, what's interesting is very early on in this cycle, when I was thinking about the Ohio Senate race, I had a Republican strategist who knows the state very well say to me, you got to watch the governor's race too because Ramaswamy is going to pull us down. That is what he was saying very early on.

12:48Tamara Keith: You know, the crazy thing is I had a similar conversation and I don't think it was with the same person. And what his point was is that he was saying you've got to watch his favorability ratings. They're just not that good. People don't like him all that much. They don't like the idea of a guy coming in and saying, I haven't held office before, but I'm going to pour my millions of dollars in here and feel entitled to be the nominee and entitled to be governor of the state, which he said that he felt like he was open to that criticism, to that vulnerability. And if you look at the latest Marist poll, that certainly shows up.

13:22You know, Ramaswamy only has a 38 percent favorability rating compared to 50 percent of people who have a negative view of him. Amy Acton, 43, 44. So not great, but certainly better for people to be split on you than having half the people say that they don't like you very much. And name ID is very important in politics. It's the thing that costs the most money. You've got to be able to have people know who you are. But sometimes that cuts both ways, because if people know who you are and they don't like you very much, it's hard to change those views.

13:54Tamara Keith: Well, and Ramoswamy, he ran for president in 2024. That's why we know his name, because he was a Republican presidential candidate who ultimately dropped out and endorsed President Trump pretty early on in that campaign and then became a surrogate for the president. And Karen, for Amy Acton, it is an interesting challenge to be known for your work during the COVID era because a lot of people have really mixed feelings about the COVID era.

14:23Karen Kasler: Absolutely. I mean, I have heard from Democrats who strongly supported what Mike DeWine and Amy Acton did and Republicans who really pushed back hard on that. And that's the Republican messaging that you've been seeing is really digging her for what happened in COVID, as well as some other really, really negative things. This race has gotten particularly nasty when it comes to personal attacks. And so I think she's in a really difficult position in some respects because she's never run. And she has decided, for instance, not to debate, which she's getting hit on for as well. Back in 2022, when Mike DeWine wouldn't debate, there was the question about, well, what do debates do?

15:02Karen Kasler: Who's even watching?

15:04Tamara Keith: OK, tell us a little bit more about how this campaign has gotten personal.

15:09Karen Kasler: Yeah, there was a police report that came out that claimed that Acton had been involved in a domestic dispute with her husband, which is what she said. But in the report, there's suggestion that she had had some drinks, that she was on prescription medication. She's really pushed back on that and said that this was a marital dispute. She's not a drug addict. She's not addicted to alcohol. But Republicans have not let this go. They have really, really hit her to the point where they've created AI images of her Jeep that she drives around to various campaign events with a license plate altered to say drunk mom.

15:45Karen Kasler: So it's gotten very, very personal, and they've really gone after her for her just general competence. On the other side, the Democratic Governors Association especially has gone after Ramaswamy. They had an ad called Con Man saying that he was basically a snake oil salesman who did some work with an Alzheimer's drug that didn't go well, but he made money. I mean, it's gotten really, really personal and very, very bitter. Yeah. One of the things that you have to do in politics, and this is going to sound cynical, but it's necessary, is if you have a net negative favorability rating and you're very well known, it's really hard then to get people to like you more.

16:25But if the other person might not be as well known and people are split on them, the only pathway to a win is to drag that person down into your territory. And that sure looks like that. That's what happens often in politics. Yeah.

16:39Tamara Keith: Karen, I wonder about Ramaswamy and whether he's a fit for the demographics of the state of Ohio or the electorate of Ohio. I'm thinking white working class voters, for instance. You know, he's got this sort of like wealthy investor vibe. Does that work?

16:59Karen Kasler: Well, and he's certainly been trying to reach some of these people, going to a lot of Lincoln Day dinners and rural county party events and things like that, trying to get out there even during fair season, going to different fairs and everything, really trying to kind of bust that image there. But there really is this undercurrent of racism and discrimination against his faith, because he's Hindu, that just really is just unseemly for any state, especially my state of Ohio. And now he had an opponent in the Republican primary. That opponent didn't do well, but he kept trying to bring that up as an issue.

17:39Well, and a big thing that Donald Trump built his brand on was an anti-elitism, which is obviously ironic given he's a billionaire from New York City, Right. But we've talked a lot about that. That's separate, you know, anthropological conversation. But the fact is he built his brand on that sort of anti-elitism, that right wing populism. Trump, you know, was able to fire up white working class voters. He was able to fire up rural voters. And when you look at the exit polls from 2024 in Ohio specifically, Donald Trump was able to win 72 percent of white men without college degrees and those who lived in rural areas.

18:17The latest Marist poll in Ohio shows Ramaswamy only in the 50s with both groups. You know, that's a big change from 2024. And if that's the case, it makes it really hard for him to get over that hump.

18:31Tamara Keith: So I think that we have now established, and this is kind of wild to even say, but that Ohio this year is a toss-up state. These top races are in toss-up territory. Does that represent just this year in American politics? Or does that represent some sort of larger shift in a coming post-Trump America or a post-Trump Ohio? Like, is there a real shift here happening among the electorate or is this just like, you know, a really mediocre midterm for Republicans?

19:10Karen Kasler: I think that is a huge question here, because when you look back at 2006, when Democrats did very well in Ohio in 2008, it carried over where Obama won Ohio and Democrats took the Ohio House. Is this something that could potentially go forward another two years, which will get us into the presidential race? I don't know that we know the answer to that, but this certainly could potentially energize the Democratic Party, which has really struggled in Ohio in the last 40 years. I mean, since 1994, 82 percent of statewide candidate races have been won by Republicans. So Democrats have had a long kind of drought here.

19:52Karen Kasler: this could potentially bring back some of that excitement and some of that competitiveness that we've just really not seen in Ohio. Yeah, look, I mean, you don't want to read too much into a win in a midterm year and project that out into the future very far, because often midterm elections are really about a protest vote against the party in power, against specifically the president if the president's unpopular. So, you know, parties in power do not do well in midterms. We all know this. So that's really what's at the heart of these things. But if you're the party in power, number one, you don't want to lose too many seats because the next time you come back, it's a lot harder to dig out of that hole.

20:32And number two, you don't want to give the opportunity for the opposition party to then govern in a state or be in the public eye and perhaps be seen more positively and seen as leaders voters can trust. And they're also in a difficult position because there is no Trump come 2028.

20:51Tamara Keith: All right. Karen Kassler from Ohio Statehouse News Bureau. Thank you so much for being with us. It's been fun. Thanks. And come back and join us tomorrow for more. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

21:15Karen Kasler: Stay tuned for the following announcements and messages from our sponsors. This message comes from Rosetta Stone. Rosetta Stone is designed to make language learning intuitive. It mimics how people naturally acquire speech as children, helping users read, write, and think in a second language. More at rosettastone.com. Support for NPR and the following message come from Washington Wise. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. Washington Wise from Charles Schwab is an original podcast that unpacks the stories making news in Washington. Listen at schwab.com slash Washington Wise.