63. Sajid Javid: Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Shamima Begum (Part 2)

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1:38Welcome to The Restless Policy is Leading with me, Alistair Campbell. And with me, Rory Stewart. Now, when we sat down to interview Sajid Javid, the former, insert six former cabinet jobs, I did not think we'd end up giving him the Theresa May, John Major, two-parter treatment. But one, he was incredibly generous with his time. Two, but I also think it was really interesting. And he seemed sort of unbuttoned and really talking in a way about all sorts of things. I'd not really heard him talk like that when he was a minister. So if you've listened to part one, I hope you enjoyed it. And this is part two.

2:17If you haven't yet listened to part one, probably good to go back and hear about him talking about his background and his upbringing and all sorts of political issues that drove him to be the politician that he became. But this is part two, much more, as it were, about more recent times. He gives a very interesting assessment of some of his prime ministerial colleagues. List trust, listen away now. But also some very interesting stuff about his time as Home Secretary. we had discussion about for example shamima begum which is in the news again recently but anyway lots and lots and lots of stuff we talk about uh hope you enjoy part one and i hope you enjoy part two here it is what's your assessment of the last five prime ministers cameron may broad question it's a broad question but i'm sure you've thought about it cameron may johnson truss who you voted for yeah with great regret big mistake don't ask me about my big mistakes Would that be number one?

3:16It would be right towards the top of the list. It was a huge mistake to support Liz Truss. Why did you do that? I did it because I thought, and on this bit I was right, I think everyone was right that said it, is that I thought she was going to win anyway. And I thought naively that I would be able to help sort of moderate her because I was worried about what she might do. And obviously it turned out that first she did win, but she wasn't going to be listening to anyone. And then she was the author of all her own mistakes, the disaster that she was. So when you say she was going to win anyway, is that where politicians make a judgment?

3:54Well, if they're going to win, I need to be a part of that team rather than the losing team. Well, it wasn't so much. I didn't want another job. So by then I'd done what I've done, what we talked about. I was already thinking, it's pretty certain in my mind, I hadn't sort of made my final decision. I was going to not stand in the next election. So I was just thinking about what's going to be the direction of the country now. So Boris obviously had gone. I think that was the right decision. He goes. Obviously, someone had to follow. I tried. I couldn't get anywhere, really. There wasn't enough interest amongst my colleagues.

4:26And so I concluded that she was going to win. And I don't want a job, but she's going to win. And what influence could I have on whoever, on the individual that becomes our next leader? And if she's going to be it, then I have to, if I backed her, then maybe she'd be more willing to listen to me. But she wasn't. And it was a mistake. I should have backed Rishi Sunak. It was a mistake. And but it is what it is. And what about her predecessor, Johnson? I mean, you had some very colorful times with him. You had Dominic Cummings getting the cops in. I resigned twice. I know you did. I know you did.

4:58So we often have discussions about who's the worst prime minister of all time. And I think it's between those two. I think it's between those two. trust and johnson and i think that trust has left this awful economic legacy from which i don't think your party's going to recover but johnson has has had a different sort of legacy which is about lying about standards in public life and i just wondered what your take now on what it was like working alongside him well look i refer to my resignations and i think i mean i've talked a lot about the reasons why i left and i think people know the circumstances but the first time when I left as Chancellor.

5:33I mean, I was really excited to be Chancellor and having the party won the 2019 election the way it did. I know a lot of it was about Brexit, but what I was most excited about was what Boris called sort of levelling up and bringing growth throughout the UK opportunity. And I really, you know, I took it really seriously. I thought, what a great position to be in, in the government, where you're the Chancellor. I've already run four spending departments for that. I had good understanding in government. And I was really interested in things like skills and infrastructure and job growth, the enterprise, all this.

6:05I had a, you know, remember a few weeks before I resigned, I think at Christmas time, just before Christmas, I sent Boris a, I think a 20 page personal minute on how I would deliver levering up. I went to every government department, what you would do. I said I could call it. I was so excited about it. And then about a month later, so I resigned. And the reason I resigned, well, documented was that, you know, he asked me to do something with with my team that i found totally unacceptable he was under the influence of mr cummings i had been telling him that mr cummings was um only in it for mr cummings and didn't care a damn about what the prime minister actually thought all the rest of the government for that matter boris didn't listen to it and i thought there was no way forward so i left do you think he read your minute yeah because after christmas when he came back in the new year he gave me copyback of the minute where he had written a lot of actually he did read it to his credit he did read it and he he had commented on a lot of the things that i said and that's what i found with is that when sort of i would get him to talk with him one-on-one and go through things in detail and how it really works and things he would listen and you'd sort of get him to the right place and you think right we can do something with this i can actually do something i'd go off and then and probably it's coming someone's got to him it's all changed but it was very weird i mean so he was the foreign secretary when i was the minister of state in the foreign office and i remember going in to present the um africa strategy to him and i did a sort of whiteboard presentation through all this stuff and he said absolutely terrific 100 100 we're going for this then he left the room and i turned to the permanent secretary the head of the civil service department and said, well, the foreign secretary signed off.

7:48We're good to go. And he went, well, minister, you know, if Boris had said he didn't like it, that would be a problem. But it's not a huge help that he said he liked it. And I was like, what do you mean? He was like, well, unfortunately, if I go in tomorrow and say Rory's Africa strategy is bullshit, he'll go 100%, 100%. So I thought he was a very, very odd manager. The big question I've got in my mind is what in the end has gone wrong? I joined with you in 2010. I am full of admiration for you and for others of our colleagues. I mean, you know, I'm on record. He's going to mention David Gawke again.

8:24I worship David Gawke. I thought he was the most wonderful boss and I really enjoyed working with him. And I think listeners listening to this will think here is this thoughtful, competent, serious person who took his job seriously. He's got a good brain on him and he tried to do the right thing. And yet they will also think we're now in 2024. The conservatives are going to almost certainly lose this election by a large margin. And the economy looks like it's going to barely grow in an entire parliament. The NHS is creaking. People are unhappy with schools. Growth is anemic. Productivity is rubbish.

9:04So how does one reconcile kind of hardworking, serious, thoughtful people in senior government departments over 14 years and the fact that many voters will go to the next election thinking these guys were hopeless? I think you asked me what's gone wrong if we look off the eye on our own country. But I think what I'm about to say is true of many other countries, you know, leading democracies, whether it's in Europe, whether it's France, it's Germany, it's Italy, US, of course. And that is, in a nutshell, it's the rise of populism, being populist. There's lots of causes of that. And it's not like the political system isn't without fault.

9:41There have been some big divisive issues over the last couple of decades. Iraq, the expensive scandal, Brexit we've talked about. And that in itself leads to obviously big differences of opinion. But then you get the politicians who can then just exploit that for the sake of their own populism. Obviously social medias has played a big part, continues to play. I think that is, to me, that sort of polarization that's being created in politics, again, not just in the UK, through populism, I think that's our number one defining issue as a country going forward. And it exists not just in the Conservative Party.

10:16I mean, look at Larry Corbyn and his legacy. I mean, Alistair couldn't even get himself to vote Labour in one of the elections, right? And that, you know, how powerful that's been. Very specific reasons, actually. But yes, it's true. It's true. It's true. But just on that, so populism, Brexit driven by populism. Johnson driven by populism, List Trust driven by God knows what. Dispiracy theories. Now it is, yeah, but that's all part of populism as well. Yeah. So all that being said, you've been a conservative minister, you've been in six government departments, and as Rory said, you'd be seen as one of the kind of sane, sensible guys.

10:48Can you honestly look people in the eye today and say, after 14 years of this government, we should give them another go? Yes. And I'll tell you why. Because despite all of that that we just discussed, if I look back, last 14 years where you had so constant government under conservative leadership if you think about three or four i can think so three or four things that really sort of are better improved right we talked about the economy of course the economy is in a difficult position today but you find me a country in europe where it's not but since 2010 the uk in real terms has grown faster than any other major european country france germany italy spain's grown faster than in real terms and that means real jobs and opportunity if you think about education i think our schools our university our colleges are much better and that's not my view if you look at any international measure of educational performance please don't mention maths please no well you might not like them but it's better than the grade inflation under the labor years right and so so i'd rather take an international measure than a domestic measure which is much easier to me and then last one It's another really important area.

11:52We never get to defend the conservatives. Which is the environment, right? Now, I know obviously there's a constant debate, but I care deeply about the environment, what we give to our children and grandchildren. I believe passionately in the damage of climate change, declining biodiversity. But if you look as a country, we've cut our emissions faster than any other G20 country. In terms of renewable energy, it's grown faster than any other comparable country in Europe. So don't get me wrong. I'm not saying all these areas we've done enough, but they've done a lot. Equality. You know, I was proud to vote for same-sex marriage.

12:24I was proud that it was a Conservative Prime Minister that brought it to Parliament. You know, modern slavery. We don't get to – sometimes these things can – people don't – for lots of reasons, they're not the most sort of exciting topics and stuff. But we have done a lot on modern slavery, right? Because of Theresa May's leadership on that, on domestic abuse. We've done a lot on taking mental health more seriously. I know it's something you care about. I care about taking it more seriously. I'm not saying, again, it's enough. But there's been – So there are things where there'll be huge improvements.

12:49Can I pause for a second and bring you in on this, Alistair? So, I mean, I think we're looking at a situation where Labour will win the next election. When you hear him, and I understand you'll disagree with 90 % of what he says, and we know that because you tell us again and again. But do you ever sort of recognise what it must have been like for Gordon Brown in 2008, 2009, when he must also have felt, wait a sec, we've done all these things over 13 years, We're proud of our record. And yet I'm staring defeat in the face. And it's unfair. No, honestly, even though I think it's had a perfectly fine job of trying to present a positive case.

13:23If you remember a speech that Gordon made in, I think it was Manchester before the election that he lost to David Cameron, where he did. I don't know if you remember the speech, but he just read out a list that went on and on and on of real progress and real change. and I think when we had Gillian Keegan on I think it's very hard for conservatives to genuinely stand there and say this is a better, stronger, richer country than it was or that you're going to leave it in a better state but listen, there's no problem but also let's not forget that when Labour came to office in 97 they all had a big economic bonus to spend as well which was completely different No, we started your spending those for two years Exactly, because the conservative government because John Major had made the right economic decisions Which is finally after the ER disaster.

14:07On health. You're a huge bonus to spend. On health and education, just look at the graph that goes like that, then that, and it's now done that again. So, listen, it's not all about spending, but I just think as a country, I think you agree with me, the country doesn't feel good about itself. We are more divided. We are poor. And I agree there are challenges in all these other countries, but I think I'm afraid, particularly since Brexit and Johnson, this country has taken a very, very bad time. Can I bring in our health, which is a huge thing? And then back to, I promise not to do much more of this, but health is one of the really big things.

14:37Because although Ernest is right, Gordon Brown spent a lot on health, actually Theresa May spent a lot on health. Boris Johnson spent a lot on health. I mean, we are pouring billions into the health service, and yet there's not, doesn't seem to be very much coming out the other end. I mean, it seems like an absolute nightmare. Let's imagine, I mean, I know you don't want to say this is going to happen, but just imagine for the sake of argument, where Streeting became the health secretary and Labour was trying to run the NHS over the next five years. what's anyone supposed to do about the health system well first we need to be honest whether it's labor whether it's considered about the challenge of the health system is the biggest public policy challenges country faces is the health system by far and away right because it's so important health who isn't it important to and just to put the challenge in perspective is that you know when labor came to office in in 97 it spent 27 percent of total day-to-day government spending went to the NHS.

15:30Now it's 44%. It's soon about to be 50 % in the next five years. Of total government spending. Total data government spending. A lot of it, the expense of defence, which is going to have to go up. Defence is going to go up, have to go up for obvious reasons. Spending on interest, on the government debt is going to have to go up. And there'll be other areas that probably have to go up as well. But take that into account. And where's the NHS going to get the money from? Today, we are spending more as a proportion, more in real terms than ever before. So one budget that just kept going up and up and up in real terms, even before COVID.

16:02And why is that happening is because we're living longer. When the NHS was created, there were something like half a million people over the age of 18. Now there's over three million people. There's new medicines and treatments that people rightly want. We're taking mental health more seriously than when the NHS was created. And all of that, the burden of disease has changed. And I am clear, especially having worked up close now with the NHS, having run that department, there is no way that it can continue to be funded with what it really needs and resources directly only from taxes it's not going to happen it doesn't happen in any other country in europe it doesn't happen in canada or australia or in japan i'm deliberately picking countries that universal health care systems that none of them do it this way and that is why i've called for a royal commission on it i think politicians just need to say look we know this is a massive problem We need a consensus on it.

16:50We're not going to agree it through parliament and media. So let's get the great and the good politicians of all side around the table and do this. So what should West Streeting do in your scenario? Let's say Labour do win the next election. They're going to have the same problem if Conservatives win the next election. They need to deal with this. We need a royal commission to sort this out. Otherwise, our children and grandchildren are going to pay for it. You're essentially saying there has to be a sort of hybrid system, whereas the principle that people require health care should have access to that health care.

17:18but the funding model is going to have to change. Yes, and I can tell you today exactly what that funding model should be, but I can point to countries that I think we can all look at and say, I don't think anyone looks at Australia or Canada to take to sort of English-speaking countries or even France or Germany and say they don't look after they're sick, right? But they do it in an entirely different way. And, of course, the government's involved and things. And also, by the way, these countries also take protection and prevention much more seriously. We need to be much more serious about prevention, whether that's on mental health or obesity or cancer.

17:54And that will pay for itself in the future as well. I completely agree with you about prevention. Just on mental health, you had a brother who took his own life. Yeah. And I just want you to tell listeners who he was, why, in your view, he did what he did, and what sort of effect that's had on you and the rest of your family. Yes, my eldest brother, Tarek, and he took his own life in July 2018. That was a long time ago, but I think I probably think about it every day still. We were very close. He's one of, you know, we were five brothers. We were all very close. And the truth is I didn't see it coming at all.

18:33And I remember when my other brother, Bass, who called me up. He's a police officer. He's now in the Home Office. He's Director General of Immigration Enforcement. Oh, my God. that's a tough job so we'll see him as select committee soon but he was police officer for 30 years and he called me up and um and uh said you know you know you okay i've got some serious news and actually i was actually my i just visited my mother i was in a car being driven by my protection officer as home secretary at the time back to london and he told me the news and uh i i mean i was i was totally even even shocked and devastated sounds it's an understatement because we just didn't see it coming and uh and i wish i'd now not obviously i've learned more i wish i'd done more to to to try and prevent it in the way that just talked to my brother more i'd seen him before i think two weeks before that at a family wedding and i everything you know to me seemed normal but i only learned afterwards he had some serious health issues including some mental health issues and uh i didn't talk to him enough and i should have is there a pakistan punjabi cultural thing about not talking about mental health as part of that do you think there is it's not just pakistan i think there's a sort of asian if i can call it that asian sort of subcontinent sort of issue here i've talked to people not just since then i've campaigned a lot on social prevention i will continue to do so i've talked to a lot before communities but including from the sikh community you know pakistani community and others and there is a bit of a there's actually there's a serious taboo about not talking about it still still yeah yeah there is so when you say you wish you could have done more what what do you actually think you could have done i think i if i just of course i was busy i was the home secretary i was busy but i shouldn't have been so busy that i couldn't sort of sit down with my brother one-on-one go out for lunch something say what's on your mind what are the issues you know what's what's going on and just probed it money i think if i'd done that i would have learned more i think my other brothers would say the same thing as well and since then i've learned more about suicide prevention some great charities that It was amazing work in this space, but through them, I've learned more.

20:39I think probably the number one thing I've learned is just to talk more, get people to open up more, especially men. 75 % of suicides in this country are men. And obviously, there are other risk factors. There's regional differences. Suicide rates are twice as high in the Northeast, for example, than other parts of the UK. Deprivation areas compared to affluent areas, 10 times higher. So there are risk factors. And that's why ever since my brother's death from this, I thought I need to do more. When I became health secretary, it meant I was in a position to try and do more. And that's why I set off work on doing a national government wide suicide prevention strategy, which eventually has been published.

21:18I asked the Treasury for more money and support, which they've done. I hope there'll be even more in the budget that's coming up. And also, like so many things in government, I think you can do more if you do cross government work. And it's not just the health department, but the education department, DWP and stuff, trying to get more joined up policies on this. But it's, as I say, it's an area that obviously I'll be leaving sometime this year in politics in terms of parliament. But this is one thing I'm just going to keep trying to do what I can. Sajid, I run against you in the leadership. And of the final group of us that were at that BBC stage, you were the one that I would have been most happy to see as prime minister.

21:56But it didn't happen. Why didn't it happen? And I think you had three leadership runs. Why did you not become prime minister? Well, ultimately, I didn't get the support. But why did that happen? I think in each one of those, there's a different fact. I mean, it's not I only tried twice myself. And one was the occasion that you mentioned where it did make some progress, but clearly not enough. I think in that particular election, I think actually it was for Boris Johnson to lose right from the start. I don't know if you I think you probably agree with that it was uh you know for whatever reason the whole momentum was on his side and for me to win or you to win I think something would have had to go wrong with his campaign right otherwise no one else was going to win and then in a year later when I tried after Boris Johnson himself had quit the support wasn't there I've tried to sort of think back and what are the reasons I think one major reason was just actually really practical thing in my case obviously i was health secretary there's a massive job to be done i came in during the lockdown and i took my job like very very very seriously i thought i i mean i had to and then we had the omicron crisis and i the job was rightly understandably rightly all-consuming i didn't have any time at all even if i wanted to to sort of campaign a bit behind the scenes and i I think that the reality is whenever you have leadership elections, the eventual winners or the serious contenders have been doing a lot of work before the leadership election actually starts.

23:28So what do we learn from the fact that Liz Truss became prime minister and you and I didn't? What is it about her personality, her style? I think you could add Boris Johnson to that. I mean, anybody who knows Boris Johnson, certainly as long as I have, knows that he would have been a complete disaster. I think the one, at least in Boris's case, I think most people would agree, whatever you might think, you know, he's a great campaigner. He's very good with people in terms of, you know, make them feel good, get support. He's a very good campaigner. I sort of understand us being beaten by Boris Johnson, but you couldn't apply that to Liz Truss.

24:03It's tough. And I think that the particular, I think what had a big role to play in that was the particular circumstances of Boris Johnson's departure. So, you know, I'm not giving anything away that Boris and Rishi weren't the best of friends when Boris left government. I think the team around him were determined that it's anyone but Rishi. And they had to find someone to focus on rather than to spread that support too thinly. and they, for whatever reason, they chose Liz Truss. And I think that was probably the number one reason why she won because of all that support. But the reason I guess this is important is that we desperately need good leadership.

24:43And one of the reasons I think why the Conservatives will lose in this election is that 44 days with Liz Truss totally destroyed our major calling card, which was supposed to be economic credibility. Yeah, big damage to our reputations, no question about that. And as soon as that happened, it becomes very, very difficult because we're supposed to be the party of prudence and thoughtfulness. So the political parties have a brand as well as, you know, lots of things, but they have a brand. And the brand was trashed. So what could you change structurally in the system to make it more likely that...

25:12That Rory became prime minister. No, that you became prime minister. Oh, David Gawke became prime minister. I don't know, but not Liz Truss. I mean, what structurally needs to be changed? I'm not sure. I'm not sure what structural changes can be made because ultimately it's the MPs that make the sort of shortlist. It's the members that vote. members that join any political party by definition obviously they're more interested than the average person in politics they've got pretty defined views and it's the members that led to Liz Truss it's the members that you know experimented with Jeremy Corbyn and things so I mean this is a it's not just a unique sort of conservative party challenge.

25:48Okay Sajid, Rory let's have a quick break and back in a minute.

25:56Do you agree with Rory that the Tories have lost the next election? I not know, not completely. I think that it's going to be incredibly difficult. And for the reasons we've discussed with this brand and stuff and the COVID and war in Ukraine and inflation that's come about because of that, it's going to be very tough. But I think this is that when the election comes sometime this year, the choice in front of people is going to be is either going to be Keir Starmer as your prime minister or Rishi. And I think that's a that's a pretty stark choice. And and I think a lot of people yet still haven't made up their mind.

26:35So why is it a stark choice? Because from from distance, most of the public be like they seem completely identical. It's like a slightly boring.

26:45And also, and Keir Starmer, of course, he's not Jeremy Corbyn, right? He's not Jeremy Corbyn, nothing like him. I happen to think Keir Starmer is a decent guy. If I woke up the day after the election and Keir Starmer was standing outside 10 Downing Street, I'm not going to be frightened, right? Which he would have been if Jeremy Corbyn had. But he's also not Tony Blair. You're on the doorstep. But Rishi Suno is not Margaret Thatcher, is he? I'm not saying he is. But I'm saying Keith Starmer is not Tony Blair. There's no love for him on the doorstep. And he's got his work cut out for him. Sajid, I'm getting told that you have to go because you'd be unbelievably generous with your time.