74. Kwasi Kwarteng: Liz Truss, becoming Chancellor, and Britain on the brink (Part 2)

23:01Of course, that damages growth. That's the theory. That's the doom loop. I heard Rachel Reeves use that phrase. The problem is, how do you get out of that doom loop. How do you actually grow the economy so that you can get tax revenues to pay for public services? And as I say, this is a problem that every country in the Western world is facing. So that's why growth is the key. Because if you don't get growth, you've got a cake and you're just simply just trying to slice it in different ways. And it's not sufficient to pay for the kinds of services you'd expect in a 21st century modern economy.

23:38And so your idea was, we need to create growth. That's right. And your theory on how to create growth was? So the theory is that you reduce the tax burdens to incentivize economic growth and investment. We just got a mixed record, historically. Mixed record, but sometimes it has... My big problem with this, looking back, because at the time I signed up to it and I made a statement and I confessed that, And we were thinking about this, is that you can't just reduce taxes willy-nilly without showing some restraint on the other side of the ledger. And we should have done this at the same time. So what Jeremy Hunt came up with in the November, his statement on basically the spending envelope, should have been put together with the mini-budget.

24:18And then I think... So cut taxes, but also cut spending more dramatically. Yeah, and you're not cutting spending. Again, it's a difficult thing to explain, but you're reducing the rate of growth of spending. when you were making that statement in standing at the dispatch box, was the part of you feel you feeling this is nuts? It was kind of at the end. I just thought, Hmm, let's see. That was what I would, cause I just thought, what were you, what vibe were you getting from across the, from labor and from behind you? It was kind of, they were kind of quite surprised. I mean, it was, it was, it was, it was a real, and again, it was the sort of style that we, you know, it was, it was a very, very bold statement.

24:58and people were like, really? Wow. Oh, God. That was the reaction. But why didn't you, sorry, I'm being a bit mean here, but you knew Liz Truss very well, and I knew her very well. And I concluded she was manifestly unsuitable to be prime minister. She was a person ultimately lacking in prudence and seriousness. I wouldn't trust her to run the country. And she was a really good friend of yours. Why couldn't you see what I could see very clearly in 2016, which was that she was silly? She wasn't a serious person. Well, look, I don't agree with that. But I think there were definitely... Did you agree with the unsuited to be prime minister?

25:36I don't think she had the right temperament for it. And I've said that. Because you've got to have a very cool temperament. You know, when things and things do go very badly wrong, you need to keep an even temper. And you must have seen that she was at the very least an eccentric person. I think you're right. I think the temperament, and what I've learned is temperament is probably the most important thing. It's more important than almost than experience, actually. Because what was extraordinary about that is... You often get the temperament from experience. No, but what was extraordinary about her was that on paper, she was the most experienced.

26:05She'd been in cabinet for, what, eight years? From 2014? Yeah, but you say she'd made her reputation doing the stuff that ultimately isn't what politics and government is about. You can say that, but in terms of the CV, she had held those posts. But you must have been able to see that. I'm just putting out the obvious. What I would have said to you at the time is, yeah, she's been in government for long time, but she learns nothing. I would have lectured you to, bored in the thing, of all I'd seen in DEFRA of her making reckless and catastrophic decisions. Well, we should have had that conversation.

26:37No, but I think you would have said, come on, Rory. I mean, no, no. She's - So, you're - That's the thing. You're in this world where you've got to make quite snap, almost binary decisions. I knew that there were candidates that I liked that weren't standing. There were three essential candidates, Penny Morden, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak. I made the calculation that Liz Truss would be better. With Boris, it was the same. You always think they're going to be reined in or there's going to be something - I never thought that from a moment. Ideologically, I was very much where she was. But then you don't know what people are going to do.

27:16Maybe you do know. I mean, I didn't see it, but you don't know how they react. And actually, the funny thing about her book was that both her husband and her election agent said it was going to end badly. I mean, there's a bit in the book. They probably know better than most. Yeah. And the husband said, it's all going to end in tears. Well, thank you. Thanks for telling me. And then the election agent, your own election agent, saying to you, well, yes, you should stand for leader, but it would be better if you came second. And I thought that was just remarkable. I mean, if my election agent had said that to me, there'd be a real crisis of self-doubt.

27:47What have you made of her on the tour, with this book tour? Just no self-reflection, no acceptance of responsibility, utter arrogance about the way she protected herself. So the two things that I hate are the conspiracy theory stuff. I mean, we've talked about history all our lives, our adult lives. Conspiracy theory. Whenever someone says this is a conspiracy, this is deep state, I just turn off. Because human beings don't work like that. They're not smart enough. Do you think she's been manipulated by these hard-right people in America? I think her view is, you know, her problem, her issue is to try and sell these books.

28:21So she's trying to generate noise to sell the books. It's not going very well. No, it's not. It's not a great, you know, J.K. Rowling doesn't need to, you know, can rest quiet at night in terms of the book sales. But I think that the point she's trying to say is when she went to America, there's very much more of a market for that sort of grievance politics, which I don't like. You know, it's a conspiracy. it's the deep state they're against you because you're white or they get against you because you're a conservative or they're against you because they're you're christian and i think she's trying to feed into some of that so when she said they should abolish the un i mean at that point i was like you've been foreign secretary how on earth can you publicly say that and and i i was i was concerned i was i was upset about that sorry you said there were two things so that's the conspiracy theory stuff i don't buy and then the second point was that that struck me was people very close to her saying, this isn't going to end well, which was interesting.

29:16You chose to support her, not Rishi Sunak. What was it that concerned you about Rishi Sunak? So Rishi Sunak had been energy minister, and we'd had all sorts of tussles about tax. I mean, the thing that I, and I was just in Aberdeen last month, you know, the so-called energy profits levy, which I know is very popular, and many of your listeners will appreciate that, I think will have very damaging consequences to the North Sea. And you already see this with the the SNP green tension. The SNP realise that if they do anything to harm the oil industry in the North Sea, lots of jobs and there'll be lots of bad economic impact.

29:52I thought that was wrong and I argued against that. Actually, Rishi, temperamentally, I think is much better placed. Very cool, very calm, very rational. I've always personally got on with him. How about as a communicator and a charismatic leader and somebody who can really - He's not quite that. I mean, he's okay, but he's not gifted in that way. Very analytical, very bright. And what I was really impressed with about him was his temperament. And that comes from all sorts of things. That comes from his Hindu faith, his family, he's a man of means, you know, we can't be coy about that. He's wealthy.

30:27So he's got that sort of stability that comes from that, that he projects. His problem, and this is a problem for the party, is that no one really knows what he's about. And that's why I think we're struggling, or one of the reasons why we're struggling, on top of all the Boris and the Liz and all that stuff. You're not standing at the election. No. Can you see, well, first of all, can you honestly, hand on heart, stand up before the British public and say, do you know what, after the 14 years, the Conservatives should definitely come back after the next election? And can you see any way that Keir Starmer won't be Prime Minister?

31:02So my view on this is that there's a pendulum. We got first past the post, the two main parties, and there's always a pendulum. And when it goes, it goes. And I think we could well be at that point. I don't think it's impossible for the Tories to win, but I think it's unlikely. But actually, even if we had the most charismatic leader ever, I think the pendulum, when it swings, it swings. And I think people have said, we've had enough of these guys. Let's let the other people - And have they got a point? I can see why they think that. I don't think that. I'm going to be campaigning for the Tories and all the rest of it.

31:32But I can see why a floating voter can think, actually, we've seen that. Let's move on. You said you're worried about the Conservative Party after the election. What are your worries? So what happens, and you've seen this, I mean, you've been fighting these battles. You know, what happens when parties lose is very simply one faction that says we weren't right wing or weren't left wing enough. And the other lot says we've got to be more left wing, centre or, you know, we've got to move to the centre. And it's a very crude debate. It's a silly debate. And it's very nasty because everyone will be blaming each other.

32:04My own view is that all the leaders since May have contributed to this in their small ways. Big and small ways. But then of course, the Sunakites will blame the trust sites, the trust sites will blame Rishi, the Borisites. Do you see what I mean? There's all that, that factionalism, but actually they're all responsible because Rishi Sunak, if we do lose, he can't walk away from it because he's been leader for two years. You can't, you can blame the other lot up to a point. But he took the leadership. And I was very struck by the fact that he said, oh, he inherited a mess. I mean, can you imagine Winston Churchill saying, oh, I've inherited a mess, you know, in 1940?

32:38You get on with it. You don't blame the audience. It's actually just a disagreement with Alistair there. Alistair actually, I think, probably would have said that Rishi's approach should have been to be much clearer about attacking his predecessors. Yeah, I think his only opportunity was actually to say, I've maybe not say inherited a mess, but just say, we will be doomed unless we admit that terrible things have happened under the previous Johnson in particular. But then the problem with that is you're essentially trashing your brand. You are. They would have re-sayed. But at the moment, they're all trashing the brand anyway.

33:07Yeah. I think there was a middle way. I think he could have distinguished himself from the leaders, but he needed a positive vision. Okay, Quasi. Alistair, let's take a quick break. Back in a minute. This episode is brought to you by Jack Daniels. Jack Daniels and music are made for each other. They share a rhythm in the craft of making something timeless while being a part of legendary nights. From backyard jams to sold-out arenas, there's a song in every toast. Please drink responsibly. Responsibility.org. Jack Daniels and Old No. 7 are registered trademarks. Tennessee Whiskey, 40 % alcohol by volume.

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34:08Now, Quasi, over the years, you and I have had many, many disagreements about Brexit, but honestly, you cannot possibly say that it's going well. I can't say, but you see, what I don't like about the sort of Remainer position is that this idea, and I don't think it's your position, but some people have this, that if we stayed in the EU, everything would be... No. We'd be dealing with exactly the same problems. No, I think we've made them worse. We've made them worse. We'd be dealing with growth. We'd be dealing with the size of the public sector. We'd be dealing with, you know, environmental challenges.

34:37But we've made them worse. It's not clear to me that they are worse. I mean, if you look at Germany, our growth is exactly the same. We're facing exactly the same problems. And France. But has Brexit delivered the things that you post it? I don't think it's been perfect at all. I think we've made mistakes. It's one of the mistakes that you imagined a world that didn't exist. I mean, it struck me that quite a lot of the Brexit campaigners were saying, you know, European growth is sluggish, so we need to connect ourselves to rapidly growing economies in China. That's right. And one of the problems is the whole world's changed.

35:11We're now talking about decoupling from China. We're worried about the security risks, the trade risks about too big. And And suddenly it feels as though we're in a new world where it might be smarter to be close to Europe. I think there's a phenomenon about referendums. You basically have everything's binary and polarized. If we'd had this debate, and we probably did in 2014, I would have been a sort of mild Brexiteer and you probably would have been a mild Romania. The positions were much more nuanced. But when you get into this sort of binary, you know, the red team versus the blue team, all the positions become harder.

35:42So people that I knew were kind of moderate Remainers became extreme Remainers. People I knew as moderate Brexiteers who wanted the customs union. You know, people like Dan Hannan were quite happy with, they were just interested in the sovereignty bit. They became hardline Brexiteers. So the positions hardened. And so, of course, you were in this crazy world where, you know, Brexit was either 100 % right or 100 % wrong. And there was nothing nuanced. There was nothing balanced in that conversation. I'm 110%. I was actually pushing for the customs unit, never got any much. That's right, that's right.

36:18Can I finish then with my final thing? You're associated with something very, very, very dramatic, which will stay with you for the rest of your life. It'll be in your obituary. And, you know, without being unfair to Alistair, I guess, in some ways, I guess the Iraq war may feature like that in Alistair's obituary, right? I think the three election wins might help. I think the Good Friday so just reflect kind of psychologically how it feels you committed yourself to public service this is something you desperately have wanted to do for 20-25 years and there's been this incredible catastrophe where your dream of being chancellor blew up in your face 30 days there are a lot of people in the country some listening to this who will be very, very angry with you.

37:09And even though you've been apologetic and you've been nuanced, they will feel he's not apologetic enough. He's not really - But that's like in any political thing. I mean, you mentioned Iraq. It's exactly the same. There are people who are still fuming about that. But I don't think time, I think the new government, if there is a new government, I think the problems of growth, a lot of the fundamental problems will still be around. And I think people will look back and say, okay, they screwed up the delivery but actually we get what they were trying to do i mean my life will move on that's one of the reasons i think we should probably leave politics and do something else because i think i don't know what liz trust is trying to do who are the greatest historians what in the world yeah today who are the historians that have really kind of impacted upon you and so i like i mean lots of lots of them are you know i consider friends i mean i love seabag montefiore he's a great sort of journalist actually of history i think he's a very colorful historian.

38:04I used to read, and these people I was reading, they're still very active. I was reading as an undergraduate, Neil Ferguson, Andrew Roberts, right wing, yeah, yeah, yeah. Seabag, I mean, he's not really any wing. But on the left, you've got, I mean, there's a guy called, what's his name? Tim Schneider. Do you know him? Yeah, he's my colleague. He's a colleague, yeah. He's very good. He's a hero. Back in the day, E.P. Thompson, does anyone read him now? I mean, I think I had big issues with that, but he's a great historian. But oddly, the people you've chosen are provocateurs. They're quite journalistic in nature.

38:39They are. They're not actually people who, when you read them, you think they're doing a very nuanced, balanced, on the one hand, on the other. They're taking very strong positions. Neil Ferguson's like, empire good. Andrew Roberts is like, George III is a genius and a hero. I mean, there's that line in John Maynard Cain said, you know, words have to be a little wild. because they're the first battalions that storm, you know, the Towers of Thought. You're definitely a little wild. Isn't that your problem? We're talking about writing. No, no, no, no, but I'm interested where there isn't a connection between the kind of historians you admire, your kind of intellectual style, and your political style, that you are a bit wild.

39:18Possibly, possibly. That actually, that you like these provocateurs and partly as a politician, you're a bit of a provocateur. Yes, I hadn't made that connection. But I mean, I like, I think that was, And again, looking back at our experience as MPs when we came in in 2010, all we were talking about was how long is the coalition going to last? I'd go on radio programs. And then when we weren't talking about politics, we talked a bit about tuition fees. And then there was this whole sort of debate about austerity, which was a kind of slightly artificial debate. Yeah, it wasn't. But generally...

39:49Totally disaster. Well, actually, what... I mean, you say that, but what George Osborne did was what Alistair Darling said he was going to do if he'd won the election. It wasn't. I know. That's not really good at it. That's basically where we were. And actually, what I wanted to do, and maybe you're right, I did want to change dynamics and change the mold, break the mold, all that sort of stuff. Have you got another book in you? Yeah, I've got lots of books. I mean, I don't have enough time to write them. I mean, I want to write a book on the empire, which is called Most of the World on Congo.

40:22I'd like to write something on politics, not just about my crazy experience. Politics on the edge. on the air. Now, where have I heard that? But also looking forward. I mean, I find, you know, in a way I'm sad to leave the House of Commons because I think this is going to be the most interesting period. You know, I feel I'm walking, because you left just before this incredibly interesting period. And I feel I'm going to do the same. Interesting is one way. Well, yeah. But if Labour do get in, how they respond to this crisis that we're facing. And as I keep saying, it's a global crisis. It's not.

40:56I mean, in Britain, it's got particularly dramatic features. But it's something which is pretty commonplace across the world. That's interesting to me. Well, as we're moving towards the end of our conversation, I want to finish in a way by thinking about political leadership and political judgment. Isaiah Berlin praises people like Bismarck and FDR and Churchill for seeing things that other people can't see, for not accepting reality as it's given to them and imagining a new world. And I guess you and Liz Truss thought you were doing this, but unlike Churchill, Bismarck and FDR, you miscalled it.

41:36You didn't call the future, right? What do you think you've learned about political judgment from that, about the difference between, were they just lucky, the Bismarcks and FDRs, Churchill, or did they have something that Liz Truss lacked? So I think with Liz and what we were trying to do, compared to those other leaders, it was in a way too ideological. You lost sight of the practical deliverability of it. When Rab Butler said, politics is the art of the possible, I think that is a very important phrase. And I also think the judgment issue, when things go wrong, the church will keep buggering on KBO and having a measure of calmness is really important.

42:16And you look at someone like cantony eden he was totally brittle and very very um volatile that's what people have they describe him and i think having the temperament just to see things through and be calm david cameron was very good at this i mean whatever else one says about him he did have a good temperament he was not very excitable and i think that those things of judgment and thinking about politics is the art of the possible absolutely fundamental our last seven prime ministers list them in order of achievement and contribution to the country? Well, I think in terms of, I think Blair probably, is Blair the first of the list of the last seven?

42:50I mean, he was there the longest and probably had the most impact. Contested legacy, but had the most impact. I think Cameron was up there. I think Boris is in a space of his own. I think he had phenomenal skills, but he had flaws, quite deep flaws. And then the others were perhaps less... I don't think... I think Gordon was a great chancellor, but I don't think he had the temperament for... He was trying to control too much, I think, from what I hear. I have respect for him, though. He's a great mind and powerful intellect. But I don't think temperamentally he was right for the job. And Theresa May and Liz Truss?

43:26They didn't have the temperament, I don't think. But that's, you know, it's easy to say that with hindsight. But, you know... But, of course, I feel very strongly that the difference between those two is that Theresa May had a form of moral character that Liz Truss lacked. I mean, essentially, you don't take moral character very seriously. Well, I think that's a bit harsh. I don't... You don't believe in virtue? Yeah, yeah. I mean, all that stuff, the virtue and these are the goodies and these are the baddies. I think that's a bit simplistic. I think there was a lot of virtue in some of the baddies that you think.

43:58And I think there was a lot of vice in some of the goodies. I wouldn't just characterize them in that sort of sheep and goats way. Well, there's a good book in there. I don't think Liz Truss went in there thinking, I'm going to destroy everything. I think she thought she was doing good. Similarly, I think Theresa May was a little bit more cunning than many people thought. And actually, even Boris, you know, for all his exuberance, he genuinely thought he was a force for good. I don't think - Probably still does. Yeah, I think he does. And actually, we haven't even talked about him, but, you know, it wouldn't surprise me if he comes back in some shape or form.

44:31Absolutely, definitely over my dead body. Well, how are you going to stop it? I don't know, but dead body, I mean, I don't know. No, it can't happen. But anyway, so that's where I disagree with you. I don't think they can be easily categorized as good people or bad people. I think there's always a mix. Well, look, thank you so much, Quasi, for all your time. It'd be quite amazing. But just my final question, I'm going back to an Eaton entrance exam question. I think it's a brilliant one. It's 2040 and you're the UK Prime Minister. explain why it was both necessary and moral for you to employ the army to fight and kill violent protesters in London that's a lunatic question is that what you would have said?

45:12yeah I wouldn't have put it as boldly as that but I'd have said that's an absurd question because we don't kill protesters in London it's amazing you found this I'd forgotten what we were all doing at 13 I don't remember that question but these are quite grown up questions for 13 year olds and I am impressed by how quickly quasi did his numbers. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And he didn't even have to go to the OBR to check. Quasi, thank you. You've been really frank with us and we're really grateful. Thank you very much, Adid. Yeah, thank you very much. Thank you. Very interesting conversation. Well then, Rory, what do you think of that?

45:48Well, I mean, I think the first thing is you get sense that he's very clever, but I think I also get the sense of the ways in which his cleverness has a limit. I mean, I never really quite get over this problem. I don't quite get how, when it was so obvious that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss would be catastrophic prime ministers, that his sense is, well, you know, I can see that with the benefit of hindsight, but it wasn't obvious at the time when he and I had joined at the same time, spent years working with them together. And I also wonder, I mean, one thing that struck me is, I mean, yes, he apologizes, but quite, I'd sort of want, really.

46:27Yeah, I'd worry that if you were a listener, he's like, yeah, I got it all wrong, I blew up the economy, but who knew? And we make mistakes in politics. And then he was like, yeah, it's a bit like the Iraq war. I mean, sometimes people make the wrong calls. But I guess that doesn't really work for people, right? I don't know what people will make of it because I was surprised how frank he was. He wasn't very defensive and he wasn't doing this sort of, I mean, List Trust has gone around all the studios sort of blaming everybody but herself. He was accepting some responsibility. I think she gets the lion's share you get the sense as you know you've talked lots about dealing with list trust and how difficult she is you get the sense he was going along with something he didn't really believe i thought the most fascinating thing was when he was describing how he was feeling as he stood at the dispatch box and could tell that labor were sort of going is this for real and then every time he sort of looked that way to the his own side they were going is this for real and he sort of knew.

47:23You've got the feeling he knew the whole way through this was a car crash and yet he couldn't stop the car. Yeah, partly because he bought in, hadn't he, early on to a particular vision of the world which was that what Britain needed to do was radically cut taxes in order to generate growth. And he's obviously still thinks that's right. He thinks they did it too quickly. But basically he says the problem in the world is a lack of growth and the only real solution he's coming up within Britain, I guess, is tax cutting. And that's interesting because there would be other people on his side of the party who would argue, I think, more convincingly that actually, if you wanted to do growth that way, what you'd need to do is be much more thoughtful about getting rid of regulations, encouraging investment, creating a good ecosystem for business.

48:16So if you're on the right of the Tory party, what you'd probably want to say is that growth comes from business. And what you need to do is make it easier to set up a business, easier to hire people, easier to invest, easier to do infrastructure, and that actually cutting taxes isn't really the route through to that. I was surprised how sort of warm he was about Keir Starmer. He was nice about Keir Starmer. Well, he's not very, I remember this, he's always been quite good at making friendships with Labour. He's quite sort of lighthearted and cheerful. He's a funny person because he's somebody who generally, in my experience, talks a great deal more than he listens.

48:50But he's got this incredible memory. So you get the impression he's not listening, but actually he remembers almost everything that you said 30 years ago. I mentioned many encounters over Brexit. They weren't just in the studios, like bumping into him and having arguments. I always got the feeling he wasn't taking anything terribly seriously. It was all a bit of a game. I remember doing the people's vote thing. Every time I was going to say, why are you doing this? Why are you trying to stop it? Is it going to happen. Just get over it. Move on. Look, we won, you lost. Move on. It's fine. It's going to be fine.

49:22That was always his thing with me. When I was very earnestly trying to discuss with him in 2014, 2015, his argument, and I think you get a bit of this in the interview. When I'm trying to argue against the right with Lurch, trying to make the case to center ground, he says, you don't understand our right-wing voters. You don't understand the party base. people are much more eurosceptic much more right-wing than you want to give them credit for being and again that worried me because that's a little bit not about standing on principle it's about saying this is where i think public is and therefore that's where i'm gonna give you another glimpse just to sort of finish of of of quasi he sent me a whatsapp just as he left the um studio which went, Victris causa deus placuit, sed victor catoni.

50:10So the victorious cause pleased the gods but depressed Cato. And I don't actually know what the reference is. I mean, he's presumably, this is somewhere in the back of his enormous capacious memory is some reference, I guess, to Caesar's triumph. Who is God and who is Caesar in this? So I think in this story, Boris Johnson is probably Caesar and the victorious cause is probably Brexit, and that pleases the gods, but it depresses Cato, who in this case is Rory. That's a really interesting indication of Kwasi, who comes from this extraordinary background. It's true, his father was an economist, his mother was a lawyer, but I imagine his grandparents lived in relatively straightforward conditions in Ghana.

50:53It's been an incredible immigrant success story. He got this King's scholarship to Eton, went on to Trinity College, Cambridge. What did you reply? I sent back a little note saying, Victrix causa nec deis placuit nec cotone. Do you not really speak to each other in Latin? I mean, honestly, this is just, I did actually do, I got grade A, O level Latin, but I don't, what does that mean? So I said, I said the victorious cause pleased neither the gods nor Cato. So neither you nor. So I'm basically saying this Brexit was not actually. Everybody lost. Yeah, Brexit. It was a fuck up for everyone, which is kind of what I said.

51:31Thank you. Right, jolly good. Well, thank you, Kwasi, if you're listening. And onwards and upwards. And I think thank you also for making it happen because I had real reservations. You did, I remember. Well, my reservations are that I like us interviewing people and leading who we admire and want to promote. And I think both of us were very troubled by what Kwasi did. And I felt that that might lead to a slightly difficult interview where we weren't bringing out. So in some ways, tribute to him for being relaxed enough, open enough to make what could have been a very touchy interview work. And I think it's given people a chance to, I imagine most listeners like us will profoundly disprove of what he did.

52:14But you get more of an insight into some of the strengths as well as the weaknesses of that generation of conservative politicians. Anyway, thank you and goodbye. Bye.

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