A test of Trump's coalition

0:00Today on Today Explained, Miles Bryan, colleague, producer, reporter, what's up? I'm here to take you on a field trip today, Noelle, to the beating heart of American politics. The East Wing of the White House. No. A provocative group chat? Nope. We're going to New Jersey. New Jersey? Yes, New Jersey. The Garden State's electing a governor in just about two weeks. And, you know, Jersey's usually a blue state, but this race is really tight. They're neck and neck. And the Dems thought they were picking a safe choice. You know, their candidate's moderate, suburban. But she's really struggled to win over working class voters, especially the Latino voters who defected to Trump en masse in the presidential election last year.

0:46You're mad at Trump, but you don't like the Democrats either. Yeah, yeah, that's right. Intriguing. I'm going to hang up and listen. Coming up on Today Explained, Trump's coalition is finally getting tested at the ballot box. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, and options, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. Go to public.com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash podcast.

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2:24This is your Today Explained. Today Explained. Hey, Miles. What's up? Good to see you. Like the stash? I know. I'm trying to grow it back out to be more adult. You're looking adult. I think God. Adult film adult. Oh, no, no. I'm Miles Bryan, Today Explained producer and reporter, and today guest host. I'm with Fox Politics correspondent Christian Paz. He rode shotgun as we drove all across New Jersey, covering that state's governor's race. It's a bellwether for how voters across the country are going to approach the midterms. Christian, today we're in New Jersey to cover the New Jersey governor's race, right?

3:04Tell us a little bit about who's running. We have, on one hand, the Democrat is Mikey Sherrill. She is a congresswoman from New Jersey. She is a retired Navy helicopter pilot. She is a lawyer. She's kind of like your standard moderate Democrat. She was elected in 2018 during that blue wave year. And this race has gotten really competitive. And she is, at the moment, seemingly struggling a bit after the primaries, where she struggled a bit with Black and Latino voter support, seeing some similar struggles in that enthusiasm among those communities in the state. And she's facing a pretty strong and well-run and disciplined campaign from the Republican candidate, who is Jack Cittarelli.

3:58He's known in the state. He ran for governor four years ago. He almost won, right? Yeah, lost only by three points against Phil Murphy. We're here to cover this race because it tells us something about where the country's at about a year into President Trump's second term. But we're really focused on Trump's coalition, the one that he came out of 2024 with, which included a lot of black and especially Latino voters who shifted right and voted for Trump, maybe for the first time, or maybe for the first time they voted Republican. A big question I have, Christian, is, are these voters, are they Republicans now, or are they just Trump voters?

4:34Are they going to come back to the Democratic Party, or have they permanently moved away? Yeah, that's something that's been a question on my mind for a long time too, especially because we see like in off-cycle midterm election years that voters who voted for Trump in a presidential year don't necessarily seem as excited to vote for a non-Trump candidate or are simply not paying attention to politics as much or disengaged. And maybe that vote for Trump might have been a unique vote that they decided to make that specific presidential year.

5:05Our first stop was a rally for the Democrat in the race, Mikey Sherrill. Good afternoon, everyone. Salud, salud, salud, salud. For the folks that don't speak Spanish, salud means hello. Hello, welcome to Latinos of South Jersey rally. The rally was a classic campaign stop. There were free pastries, the music was too loud. Excited for this. A bunch of elected officials making two-minute speeches. Folks, with this diversity, there's strength. And with this strength, there's Mikey. It was old school retail politics, but it also felt a bit like a flashback to Trump's first term or even the Obama era, where this was just another race and not a tea leaf that everybody following politics is looking at for an answer about where these extremely abnormal feeling times might be going next.

5:55The people in the room, though, they're still the ground troops of local races. They knock on doors. They distribute flyers. They talk to voters. And so we wanted to ask them, what are they hearing from those voters, especially Latino ones who voted for Trump? Well, I hear a lot of regrets. Really? Give me your name, Emma, and then tell me more. I'm Senator Nilsa Cruz-Perez. I represent the 5th Legislative District in New Jersey. So a lot of people who probably did not come out and vote, all Latinos that decided to vote on the last election on the wrong side, now they're seeing what's happening in this country, and it's unacceptable the way our community is being treated.

6:32So a lot of people are actually realizing, oops, we made a mistake. There was a lot of full promises. So elections have consequences. Now we're paying the consequences. Is there something that you're doing that's just different than how you campaigned in last year's presidential election? What has changed? We can no longer take people for granted. We've got to go back to the gradual organizations. And that's why all these people who are running in office right now are knocking on doors, are telling people, and we're telling the story. And we're actually outreaching to the people. Maybe we did stuff for granted.

7:09Maybe we forgot those grassroots organizations that actually are the ones who are the movers and the shakers in our communities. And now we're door by door telling people, you don't have to be afraid. Elect the right people into office so we can protect your benefits. We can protect your family. We can protect the services you're receiving from the government. So one tactical change. Democrats are acknowledging that maybe they took some of these voters for granted. This year, there's a sense of needing more focus. But the question is, once you reach them, what is that focus? Do you just let Trump's second term speak for itself?

7:42Or do you tailor the message? We got to ask Mikey Sherrill, the Dem candidate for governor, about that, after she finished some voter glad-handing.

7:56Yeah, so I think what we're seeing in the Latino community is actually what I'm seeing in a lot of working class communities. This sense that costs are too high. And I think the reason that we're going to see Latinos come home, really, in this one, is because of those costs. Because Trump is raising costs on everyone. When she says come home, she means come home to the Democratic Party. Cheryl is encapsulating what a lot of Democrats seem to have learned from the last year, that they need to be laser-focused on affordability and prices. And she's not assuming Latino voters trust her party on these issues.

8:32They're still looking for someone who's really going to address their core issues, and they've not found it in the Democratic Party, and they've not found it in the Republican Party. And so what I'm saying is like, look, I hear you. Here's my record. Here's who I've always focused on and how I've done it. And so this is my plan. And I think it's going to really focus on those exact things you're talking to me about. But one of the big questions of this election is whether a moderate, suburban, safe candidate like Cheryl can convince Latino voters who flip for Trump that she knows their pain. This is like a huge bar, a venue.

9:11There's a disco ball. There is a, yeah. Republican Jack Ciattarelli is working hard to make sure Latinos do not come home to the Democrats in this race. He's doing that by doing events in places like Elizabeth, mostly Latino town in North Jersey, that shifted towards Trump by about 30 percentage points last year. It's sort of a high school dance before I get started. Oh, my God, that's exactly what I was like. For me, it was like I'm part of the first wave that arrives at the college formal.

9:41The event felt very new Republican Party. It was more working class and more diverse. There was an African-American guy wearing a Blacks for Trump hat, a teacher complaining about her union, a union construction worker asking about care for his autistic son. Jack Cittarelli has tried to keep his race hyper-local. His dumb speech is light on Trump and deportations and heavy on New Jersey's high cost of living, high taxes, high electric bills. I'm not telling you how to eat your whole. I'm not telling you what appliances you have to buy. There'll be no wind farms off our Jersey Shore. And at the supermarket, if you like, you can have back your plastic bags.

10:16Part of Cittarelli's platform is reversing a statewide ban on plastic bags. I could talk about lowering taxes. I get a nice little round of applause. I say I'm bringing back the plastic bags. It brings down the house. Everything will come. By focusing on kitchen table issues, Cittarelli is trying to treat Latinos like any other group of working class voters, similar to his opponent in that way. And while he still supports the president, he tries to put some distance between the way Trump talks about immigrants and the way he does. So here at Elizabeth, we know we have a very large Hispanic Latino population.

10:45And they remind me very much of my grandparents when they first immigrated here. Pro-family, going to church on Sundays, taking care of their families, working hard, and starting their own business. Cittarelli doesn't need to win all the Latinos who voted for Trump last year to win his election, but he needs some of them. So one question is, will all that's happened in the last 10 months, the detentions and deportations, the families split up, the videos passed around, will it all be less important than the economy or New Jersey's high cost of living when those voters go to the polls?

11:21Christian and I tried to talk to a bunch of voters on the streets of Camden and Elizabeth. We got a lot of no's. We talked to people who didn't know there was an election happening at all. Did you know there was a race until I brought it up in November? To mommy. We talked to a lot of people who voted for Trump last year and were upset about how things were going. Definitely. That was my worst mistake in my political life. But hadn't really tuned back into politics yet. Right now with our candidates, I don't know much about us. But I wanted to hear the news on this couple of weeks before the election day.

11:59And we talked to some voters who are up in the air. Is anybody going to vote? Anybody want to do an interview? Me. You're going to vote? Giselle is a home health aide in South Jersey. We met her in Camden as she was grabbing something to eat. She immigrated from Nicaragua, became a citizen this year. We aren't going to use her last name because she's anxious about talking politics as a new citizen in this moment. Giselle liked Trump last year because of his promises to crack down on crime and high prices. Maybe you could ask her to tell us a bit about what she thinks of how he's done so far.

12:37She told us she's been happy with Trump's approach to law and order, but costs are still too high, and tariffs seem to be making them worse. She told us she was definitely going to vote in the governor's race this year, and at first she said she was open to voting for whomever could get prices down.

12:54But even as we were talking, she started rethinking that. These days she carries her passport card everywhere she goes, in case you get stopped by ICE.

13:06And you have to carry that all the time? Yeah. Because you worry that someone's going to stop you and ask.

13:18That actually, she's like, the more that I do think about it and the more recent stuff, the more aggressive actions, that does give me pause. It does make me hesitate. What? Que como? disappearing people or she said like taking people away from their families or treating them violently when they're detaining them She's like I guess I would be okay with prices remaining the same if it meant like Not being so like physically aggressive with people and giving them a chance to defend themselves or make a case of I'm just saying Take care. Thank you. Thank you

13:57Okay. I feel like the thing that became clear to me is that the Latino voters we talked to, by and large, were unhappy with Trump and how this year has gone. But, you know, I keep thinking about how Mikey Sherrill, the Democratic nominee, said Latinos were going to come home. And that's not the sense I got from the people we talked to, right? I mean... Yeah, there wasn't a sense of, like, righteous anger or, like, activation or mobilization, per se. Right. It's like we asked the question, you know, are these Latino voters Republicans now? And it seems like the answer is no, but it doesn't mean they're Democrats either.

14:37That's it's kind of still up in the air. Yeah, absolutely. Great. Well, next time I see you will be in this studio, right? And you're going to tell us what it all means. who's going to win this election and the midterms and the next presidential election and what the future of the country will look like, right? Yeah. All the secrets will be revealed. Coming up. Okay, cool. That was...

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19:09Today Explained. Christian, we're back. We're in our comfort zones now. We're in our respective studios. And I'm glad to be back with you because you spend most of your time covering national politics and national polling data for Vox. How does what we heard on our little reporting trip, you know, stack up with the rest of the country? So what we heard on the reporting trip is a lot like the story that the national data is telling us. An overwhelming majority of Republicans and conservatives still like what they're seeing from Trump. They might not be as enthusiastic about it as they were closer to his inauguration before it all started to actually happen.

19:46But Trump is losing support the most from the groups that he did best with in 2024 compared to the last time. So that's like young people and it's Hispanic and Latino voters. It's largely a big surprise to do with the economy and personal finances. So that's like how people feel about prices, how people feel about inflation, how people feel about rent, about wages. Those are the biggest risk to Trump's alliance from 2024. Increasing rent before you used to pay probably$900 right here. Now you have to pay$2 ,500. And it's a lot. 5, 6K to live modestly. The more modest you are, the less you really have to make.

20:27What is the best thing about New Jersey? Nothing. Nothing. At a point in time, you're just like, where can we get help from? You know, you were on Today Explained back in the spring talking about Trump's softening support among his newer coalition members, notably Latino voters. And I got to say, it's kind of surprising to me that opinion hasn't swung more considering how intense and explicit and aggressive the Trump administration's immigration actions have been since then. being arrested by ICE agents in plain clothes. We've seen these viral videos. I would think that would move the needle more.

21:12I feel like there's a few ways to, a few explanations here. I mean, important to know from the start, two things, that if you were supporting Trump for economic reasons, the main reason you'd be turned off from him would be over what he's done on the economy or has not done, not necessarily other issues. Those other issues would be kind of like on top of that. Economic issues were always the top concern for this cohort of voters. Immigration issues came second or third after that. But if you were thinking about immigration as the main reason that you were supporting Trump, it's probably because you wanted some kind of middle approach.

21:48We need more federal agents to protect the citizens and also to protect the people who are trying to come here legally. There's bad apples in any anywhere in the world. Get those bad apples. Maybe they don't necessarily want ICE rounding up everybody. They don't want families to be separated. You know, they don't want people's rights to be trampled on or disrespected. But there's still kind of an understanding that there needs to be some kind of enforcement action to deport certain undocumented immigrants. You know, in our car ride out reporting, you referred to Mikey Sherrill as a 2018 style Democrat.

22:26A term you and I've seen other political reporters use to describe the moderate, maybe kind of boring candidates that helped Dems win big in the midterms that year. But now Cheryl's race is tight. You know, what does that say about the Democratic strategy right now in Trump 2.0? It's a big question. I think that's what a lot of folks are wondering. And specifically, it's like an open question about just what the strategy should be. There's another governor's race in Virginia. And it's, I think, not a coincidence that the Democratic candidates in both states were elected to the House in that 2018 blue wave.

23:02A new poll in the closely watched race for governor of Virginia shows the Democratic candidate with a comfortable lead. I'm Abigail Spanberger. After 9-11, I walked the halls of CIA as a case officer working counterterrorism. And then I walked the halls of Congress, where despite the dysfunction, I got things done and was named the most bipartisan member of Congress from Virginia. Maybe that's part of why we feel that 2018 style. One of the things that helped in 2018 was primarily running like an anti-Trump threats to democracy. Orange man bad. Orange man bad. You know, talking about the threats that Trump poses, talking about how bad Trump is.