America Post-Trump

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0:40Astead Herndon:Is it possible to talk about U.S. politics without talking about Donald Trump? That's the question I'm asking on a new show from Vox. The idea of like a post-Trump or not exactly Trump-focused show can exist because he's not really driving any agenda items. It really does feel like so reactive. Come 2028, America is supposedly turning the page on the current president. So who do we want to be? And what are the people and ideas that will shape our post-Trump future? That's what this podcast is about. Going deeper on politics by taking Trump out of the center and talking about politics as it relates to real life and culture and everything else.

1:18Like culture-wise, is Timothee Chalamet properly rated, overrated or underrated? Oh, God, now you're gonna get me in trouble.

1:27Astead Herndon:So, from Obama's tan suit to the manosphere and everything in between, what shapes who we are? I'm Estet Herndon, and welcome to America Actually.

1:45Astead Herndon:Okay, so I'm pumped to have two people here who are going to help us look at politics beyond Donald Trump from an expert lens. First, we have Hunter Harris, culture writer, screenwriter, and just generally coolness extraordinaire. And also Nate Silver, statistician, data whiz, and someone who's going to help us think of the specific ways that the numbers are telling us that the country's changing. Thank you both for joining us. Thank you. Funny thing is I want to start actually with the story. Like a couple months ago, we were thinking about the show and kind of what can be the organizing premise.

2:16And I was like, you know, what would be the thing that would make you most excited about a podcast? And my first thought was, I want to be Trump free. I want to think about something that does not put him at the center. And I kind of think emotionally, I wanted to start thinking about kind of what are the seeds of who the country is beyond this guy in the middle. And when I initially kind of pitched it, there was some question about whether that is even possible, whether we can even see this political moment without foregrounding Donald Trump. So I kind of wanted to use you all as our first real-life focus group about that premise.

2:51What do you think? Like, when we think about a politics that does not center Donald Trump, is that possible? I mean, he is the president. Look, as we gain more perspective on the Trump era, maybe he seems as much of a symptom as a cause in some ways, right? You know, the Republican Party kind of built a coalition that was maybe always a little bit unstable. And people like me, like famously in 2016, 2015, I was like, yeah, we know how this works, right? You have like the Rick Santorums, you have the Michelle Bachmans, the people that like rise up and they're the flavor of the day and then they dissipate when the electorate gets serious, right?

3:28And so, like, you know, not realizing how much Republicans felt like promises been broken by the Bush era, how unpopular things like the Romney-Ryan welfare state was, but also, like, obviously, the political potency of populism, of xenophobia, of racism. Yeah. I mean, what about the question of is Trump a symptom of a broken system or the cause of breaking that system? It feels like we've been living in that question for a while. Like, do you think culturally at this point you feel like you know a clear answer to that? I don't know. I think it's hard. I mean, I've kind of been working through this thesis for the past couple of months that, like, the only monoculture that, like, truly exists right now is Trump and is, like, this sort of Trumpist reaction to pop culture.

4:16where he, I think, is much more concerned by what the media is saying about him, you know, making these kind of like crazy, over-the-top like press conferences and like honestly being a drama queen. I really do think that like Trump somehow like ended up in the White House and not like on a Bravo reality show. Like he would have been a classic like rony housewife. And I say that, you know, with some respect. But I think that really shows in how he's sort of, I mean, I think the idea of like a post-Trump or not exactly Trump-focused show can exist because he's not really driving any agenda items.

4:53It really does feel like so reactive. Yeah, I'm like, in one way that monoculture feels real in the way he hogs attention. That doesn't feel like the actual outcomes are dictated by some clear vision or some clear set of steps he's going through, more so than this kind of haphazardy nature. If we were to think about the individuals who are most likely to chart our post-Trump future, who would come to mind? Let me throw out the obvious names. I'll throw out the likely presidential candidates, people like Gavin Newsom or J.D. Vance. I would throw out prospective ones like former Vice President Kamala Harris or even AOC as a person who obviously folks are thinking about.

5:33But if we get those names out of the way, like who are people who you think might be some of the clues about the direction of power in our post-Trump world? I mean, look, I do think the person that's had the biggest rise to political fame over the past year is the mayor of New York, Zoran Mamdani. And like I'm aware that I'm a New Yorker, so I'm probably biased. Right. But like as something that was like very fresh and different. Yeah. I think. Right. And cut through. But also a kind of pragmatic streak. Right. When you're in Marin, New York City, most of the shit you're dealing with is like there's a blizzard or there's a budget crisis.

6:10Potholes, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Trash collection. And he seems to be fairly popular. And there's a big debate on the left in particular about how much of an electoral penalty there is for being on the left as opposed to centrist or moderate, right? And sometimes what you want, if you want to push things to the left, is you want somebody who comes across as being reasonable and moderate even though they actually are kind of pushing things in direction behind the scenes. Like in some ways Kamala Harris was like the opposite of that. The centrists all think she was way too liberal. The liberals all think she was a sellout.

6:40Centrist on Gaza and other stuff. Getting worse to both worlds. Right. And like that's just a matter of maybe not having – maybe it's a skill thing. Maybe there's like not all that much raw political talent there, even though in some way she ran a better campaign than I thought she might. But Mamdani has a lot of political talent and kind of a proof of concept that I don't know you're seeing elsewhere. I mean, on the GOP side, we'll talk. I don't know, right? It seems like I don't quite get the J.D. Vance appeal very much at all, right? He only won one election before becoming vice president. He won by a relatively narrow margin in Ohio, which is now a quite red state, right?

7:16You know, Rubio, you could see more appeal. Yeah, someone who's in that mix. You know, I think this Iran thing is also going to cause a big split in the GOP. So far, it doesn't among, like, people who say they're MAGA voters are still with Trump. But, like, Tucker Carlson and, I don't know, Megan, I have trouble keeping track of all these people, right? But, like, for the first time, and this is a reason why it's appropriate to maybe have a post-Trump podcast, right? For the first time, you see on a major issue open opposition from the start of this war. Yeah. Hunter, is there someone who comes to mind that you think could be a part of our charting our post-Trump future or a group demographically or culturally that you think is driving the direction of what we care about right now?

7:58I think Zoran. I mean, that was going to be my answer, too. And I think particularly because, you know, maybe my own frustration with the Democratic Party is that they're just so sort of bloated and slow to respond to culture and never kind of at the cutting edge of anything, especially when if we're having this conversation about maybe respectability politics, the right is like kind of pushing past all of that. Like, it doesn't matter. Can you explain that for me? Like, what do you mean by that? I think the left is too concerned with politeness and the right is not. Like Trump can say anything.

8:32J.D. Vance can say anything. And that's sort of the appeal to some voters, that they like that sort of candidness and they like how it feels very kind of funny and casual. Where the left is a little bit wonkier and feels a bit too like from like bird's eye view. And I think Zoran does this very well where he feels casual, relatable online in some ways. And it's not just like the Jasmine Crockett, which didn't work for her, like kind of the clap back sort of getting a viral moment. But then it's like to what end, truly? And I think Zoran is really good at that. I mean, even the photos of him and Trump in the White House.

9:06I was like, you. Sorry, Trump is obsessed. Trump has found someone that he wants to impress. That is very difficult. No one on the right has gotten that, has earned that. I hear it, but to the Zoran point, do we think that that is a uniqueness that's because he is articulating kind of where people are? Or is it because he's younger, hotter, better looking? Is some of this just a question of the type of candidate that is in front of us? No, I think it's a little bit of both. I think that, yes, Soran is young and charismatic and cool, but at the same time, I think that his pushing past, you know, getting stuck in, like, ideological battles with, you know, leftists and, like, centrists, truly just to say, like, I'm running on one thing, that's affordability, is maybe doing more for—done more for him than, you know, anything that Kamala did.

9:57All right. I want to ask about demographic groups. Like we are still in a changing country. Like I feel like we used to hear so much in 2016 and kind of 2017 about the changing demographics of America. And then all of a sudden everybody ran to the other side and said, oh, just because the country is getting blacker and browner does not mean that we are in this inevitably liberal direction. I think that's true. We've seen that. But those changes are still reshaping politics. They're still reshaping culture. Like when we think about the ways America is changing from a hue perspective, from a makeup perspective, what are the groups we should be looking at that, you know, might be growing in terms of political importance?

10:34Yeah, look, these generational divides within the black community, within the Hispanic community, within the Asian American community, which is always growing, is pretty important, right? When we talk about generational divides, are we talking older 40, under 40? Like what's the dividing line we usually see? 40 is like a pretty good divide, right? It's kind of like not quite Gen X versus millennial. It goes kind of a few years into millennial, I think. So I'm 48, right? So my formative experiences are America wins the Cold War and the Berlin Wall comes down. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.

11:11And then we have September 11th, right? And the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon. which yields a lot of conservatism, right? That's an important point. Can I stop you right there? How old are you, Hunter? Old enough. I'm 31. I'm 31. What are your formative political experience? Like, if we just take about that difference generationally, what would you say is, like, your defining political experience? Obama winning? Trump winning? Yeah, Obama winning, Trump winning, Obama tan suit. That was another big one for me. But we're thinking about basically the era after that.

11:48Okay, go ahead. Yeah, so if you are my age up to a few years younger, kind of the good guys win, right? Clinton's really centrist and he gets reelected, right? Bush gets in trouble in his second term by going too far. And then Obama wins. You're like, oh, this is kind of the culmination, right? We finally elected a black guy and now, I'm not saying I thought this, I'm saying like, but now America, we fixed our problems. I heard that all the time. I heard it all the time. Problem solved. Post-racial America, like, you know, we did it, Joe. And then Trump comes down the escalator at Trump Tower, right?

12:22And people like me were dismissive of it. And so, yeah, I guess, you know, Francis Fukuyama, the Stanford historian, political scientist associated with the phrase like the end of history. And now everything causes anxiety for everybody. And incumbents all around the world are unpopular. And you wouldn't say we're trending towards stability, certainly. Yeah. The last question I want to ask before we play a little game is, Hunter, you know, I tend to see 2016 to 2024 as like an arc of political chapters. You know, like I feel privileged to have kind of seen that change up close. But from first term to Trump to kind of his return, we certainly learn things that we'll never forget about politics.

13:03It feels like some stuff has gotten fundamentally shifted or broken or reshaped in people's minds. and they will never go back to that pre-escalator moment for Trump or that pre-moment of him beating Hillary Clinton in 2016. I want to say, what are the lessons you think we've learned that stick in folks' heads from that time? Like, is there something that for you, you feel like, hey, they'll never convince me again because I learned some of this over the last eight years and it's fundamental to how I think about politics now? Ooh, that's such a good question because I was thinking about this the other day.

13:32It's like, you know, you can take any host of issues in 2016 that should have stopped Trump and none of them did because he was just momentum. Right. And I think that's maybe the biggest lesson I've learned is that if you simply just keep talking, if you stay on stage, you can get through anything. And I don't think that was true in the Obama era. Like even the scandals. The shamelessness. Yeah. The tan suit. No, the tan suit, but even like the Mark Sanford stuff. It's like all of that felt like, you know, we were talking about that in the news for weeks. It felt like all of those political scandals of the day.

14:04And now it's like, OK, so that's maybe Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. But then, you know, by Thursday, it's like Trump saying that the Japanese are sneaky, like they love surprises. And it's like there's like some new sort of insane moment that's like gone viral. And I think that really it's both a cultural thing. The internet moves so quickly and happens so fast. But I think it's also really Trump has just brought that into the forefront of our minds. Yeah, yeah. There is a way that the civility piece has an actual impact because I don't think the kind of nice guy finish first mindset of politics folks think anymore.

14:41I think there is some level of grossness that I think he has helped build into the cost that even some voters expect. Yeah, I don't think presidential candidate needs to have this idyllic life anymore. I think that he's really brought this truly reality TV sensibility to the White House and to how we think about politics. All right, y 'all, I'm going to play a game. And I got to say, I don't know how this is going to go, but I believe in you, which is the most important part. Oh, I'm nervous. We have three buckets. I have a magenta-y color bucket, a purple bucket, and a green bucket. And all three of these are going to represent different policy areas that we're going to focus on later in the show.

15:21And so the question I'm going to ask you all is to think through three different things, three different questions that you have that are not related to Donald Trump, that are not related to an individual about politics, but more so things that you want to ask about the country and put it into one of the three buckets of issues that we're going to focus on. Now, the first, and that's going to be represented by our magenta bucket, is America's role in the world. So a question about foreign policy, a question about the growing war in Iran, America's relationship to Israel and Gaza. I think that is something that comes up in a lot of conversations and is going to be represented by our foreign policy bucket.

16:00The second bucket we're going to have is affordability and kind of domestic issues. So if we think about things that I think are your kind of traditional kitchen table, things we talk about in politics, let's call this the kitchen table. And I'll put econ in. My handwriting is getting worse, I think, by the years. I'm recognizing this in real time. But we're going to have this be the econ affordability bucket. So kitchen table issues. If we think about you have a question about something that you think will fall into this bucket, we'll use that right here. And then the last one we're going to do is like societal cultural things.

16:41The woke wars, if I could use that term. We'll put that one here. Culture. So that is going to be represented by our green bucket. So we have all three buckets, magenta, purple, and green. So I would love for you all to write down anything that you can think about that is a policy question in one of these buckets. And I'm going to do the same. When does this become a game? Yeah, it seems like too much work. It's not a game. I think this is labor. No, no, I think I'm doing work right now.

17:11Astead Herndon:When we come back from break, Hunter, Nate, and I will go through the policy questions that are in our buckets.

17:33Thank you.

17:55Hunter Harris, which bucket would you like to start with? Society and culture. Okay. Now we are opening up our society and cultural bucket, and we are going to ask one question. How can a leftist politician harness and capitalize the manosphere? Interesting. I feel like this speaks to the growing and changing media ecosystem, pointing to folks like Rogan, the pod bros. Tell us, Nate Silver, what did you mean by this question? That was me. Oh, well, yeah. Oh, my goodness. That was such gendered reading of handwriting. Let me see the handwriting.

18:31Astead Herndon:Hunter Harris, what do you mean by that question? I hope that stays in. Oh, my goodness. That, to me, was a big turning point in the most recent election, where Kamala was not reaching young men. And I honestly don't know how when their entire politic is like misogyny. You know, it does feel as if the kind of growing independent ecosystem, the role of influencers are all becoming a bigger question in our form of politics. And that's obviously changing the way we communicate overall. I feel like this relates to one of the things I put in the societal cultural bucket, which is the I said male loneliness crisis.

19:06But I actually would say loneliness crisis in general. I feel like especially after the pandemic. Yeah, particularly post pandemic. I feel like people are increasingly engaging with the world that they don't physically engage in. And how that changes community, the way that we see each other, does feel like an important kind of who are we question going forward. Let me make sure before I say this. Nate, this is yours. Nate, you said, is cultural change happening so fast that vibe shifts don't even last for a single presidency? What does that mean? it means that so one thing we observed around the world is that it's like no longer really an advantage to be an incumbent you get one term and then and then you're out so to me the 2024 election felt quite different than the 2020 election obviously 2020 is during a pandemic there's lots of crazy things happening right there right but like we were talking about the kind of rise and peak of whatever you want to call wokeness right but like but it feels very different four or five years out from that peak.

20:08And like, you know, I just wonder anytime you're kind of like betting on a rising trend, we both have a lot of admiration for Zoran's political acumen, right? Not trying to make an editorial statement, but like maybe somebody copycats that and the second version doesn't hit in the same way. You know what I mean? It feels too forced. It feels like actually, you know, look, if we're, if I'm planning articles for the newsletter, The first breakout hit that you have is great on a particular topic, right? The derivative of that often falls kind of flat, right? Yeah. One of the things I put in there was the question of kind of media consolidation and just the change in trust.

20:43It feels as if less than people trusting experts, they more so trust someone who's their neighbor, someone who's on their timeline, and much more individual recommendations rather than kind of top down. You know, how much do we think, like, the elite backlash in the air right now is driven through, like, the Epstein files? I mean, I guess I'm saying kind of think culturally. How much do we think that this anti-elite moment is driven by the facts or more so driven by a trend that, to Nate's point, could change here or not? I think it's more of a trend only because there's something about the Epstein files that was such an important issue for Trump coming into the White House that now he's backing away from it so much because it's like, wait, you are the elite, though.

21:26Like, you are the coastal elite that you're talking about. And so I do think that in some ways maybe the pendulum will swing back to, you know, I think the like the horse has left the stable when it comes to media literacy and like thinking maybe critically about where you're consuming news from. But I do think that maybe in some ways wanting to be seen as intelligent and maybe more learned might come back into fashion. Ah, from your lips to God's ears. All right, let's open up some from our second bucket, which is a focus on kitchen table issues. So thinking more domestically, thinking more affordability.

21:59The first is one that I wrote down, which was health care costs, Medicare for all. It feels to me that one question we have is when people even mention things like affordability, what is the things that are driving their pockets being crunched? And for me, it feels like health care will be a big question, a big delineation for the next set of presidential candidates. With everything feels like it's more expensive. Why, you think? Don't ask me. What do you mean? I'm like a part of me feels like it's McDonald's fault for no longer having the$1 McChicken. Like, will things ever feel not expensive again?

22:35There's a component to the way that now you go order McDonald's online or whatever, or you go to the kiosk, right? And you, like, get your little upgrades and stuff like that. So there's something about, like, the way that algorithmic models induce people to maybe spend more money than they were and create, you know, the economics term is, I guess, you know, producer surplus, meaning they capture the profit, right? Like I'm not at Elizabeth Warren, oh, they're just being greedy, but like people are getting smarter at how to extract money at everything from poor customers to rich customers, right?

23:07So people feel like they're not getting this excess value that they might have before. But yeah, obviously healthcare costs as a nation ages and housing costs. America's always been obsessed with homeownership, right? And that's not a cheap thing. The second issue we pull out of this bucket is one that comes from Nate. It says, what happens if and when a lot of white collar workers fear that AI is going to take their jobs? I think that this is obviously a clear big question in the air. It's kind of the future of work, particular to kind of white collar workers or folks who might be even more susceptible to job displacement because of AI.