Fear and uncertainty in Venezuela

0:00Is President Trump planning to send troops to Venezuela? Last week, while reporters pressed him on the Pentagon's boat strikes, Trump reiterated his claim that this is about preventing fentanyl from entering the U.S. People that are trying to get their son or their daughter off of this poison that they've been fed, I think you're going to find that there's a very receptive ear to doing exactly what they're doing, taking out those boats. And then he said this. Very soon we're going to start doing it on land, too. In Venezuela, people can do nothing but wait. Trump's off-the-cuff remarks sparked these cycles of anxiety and fear.

0:37I did see people going to the supermarket. I mean, the meat was gone and the chicken was gone. But then two days after that... Then just more waiting. Nothing had happened. Everything was back to normal. Coming up on Today Explained in Venezuela, waiting for the Americans.

1:04My name is Ana Vanessa Herrero, and I'm an investigative reporter based in Caracas. I am working right now with The Washington Post. You know that the U.S. has been attacking boats, alleging that these are drug traffickers bringing drugs from Venezuela. How are people in Venezuela responding to these attacks at sea by the U.S.? The reaction is not a unified reaction. It's not like the people of the entire countries, for example, marching against or, you know, claiming to be in favor of. No. So the situation, for example, in Sucre, where this is the coast region where all the boats are allegedly coming from.

1:53And I say allegedly because we don't have confirmation from the Venezuelan government. I talked to a couple of fishermen from the area and they're scared. They don't feel safe that, you know, in their daily shores, their daily life, they're not going to be attacked somehow. But outside of Sucre, the situation is absolutely different. So Venezuelans are really not focusing on the attacks on the vessels, but focusing on the economy. Everyone has like PTSD right now. Everyone is getting ready just in case we're going to have to suffer 2016, 17 or 18 again. Those years Venezuela experienced hyperinflation of over a million percent.

2:40Economically, we're seeing shortages of basic goods. We're seeing the currency spike up every day. It's triple digit inflation and we're seeing it in a free fall. The black market taking over from the official exchange rate. They're trying to have a major devaluation of the currency. take away all the savings of the middle class. That is well deep inside our memory. And now the diplomatic tension is not as important. It's not part of the conversation. It's a little part of the conversation. But most of the conversation revolves around, you know, if I'm going to have enough money to buy food if something happens.

3:21Do I, you know, the money that I have, should I save it? Should I spend it? Should I buy the gifts for Christmas? What should I do? And every threat affects the markets, affects all investments. But remember, the economy was collapsing. And last year, we started seeing some small changes for the better. Those were because of the cash flow on the streets and because of small investments. You know, people with, you know, some sort of money started creating small businesses and the economy was moving, was flowing. It doesn't mean that the economy was thriving, but, you know, we did see some changes.

4:02But now every person who has some money to invest is really insecure of doing so because you don't know if, you know, if you spend or invest, what if tomorrow, you know, the U.S. attacks Venezuela? How can you survive without that money? So now people are trying to save the money that they have just in case something happens. And that is affecting the economy, the day to day economy. I'm not talking about the macro economy, which, of course, involves oil businesses, trades, which was already affected in the past. I can understand how the story of the men in boats, the fishermen you spoke to, becomes small given a much broader economic crisis.

4:51I wonder about something else. So President Trump recently suggested that the United States might start land strikes in Venezuela. Do people there fear a land war? so of course just to be clear my conclusions come from the many conversations I've had with people here on the ground but of course I haven't spoken to everyone from the people I've interviewed and small conversations I've been part of okay the people I've talked to they do fear something is going to happen they don't know some of them think it's going to be like, you know, a small, precise attack against some of the Venezuelan political leaders that are now in power.

5:40And others think that they might come into Venezuela military from the U.S. and attack Venezuela on the ground. But everyone agrees on one thing. If any of those happen, they do believe it's going to be really quick. This is not going to be a war that is going to last for five years. Because Venezuela doesn't really have what they need to fight against the U.S. And the aftermath of that would be the end of Maduro's regime. I haven't heard anyone rejecting the idea. And that is really interesting. The thing is that because of the censorship and the harassment that the government has put upon the population, no one dares to speak up.

6:32But in Petit Comité and small conversations, you can definitely, you know, hear that no one wants this, but it's a last resort. The people that you've spoken to, are they not rejecting the idea because they want Maduro out? Well, ultimately, yes. You know, most people would like Maduro to resign. But we know so far that that is not, that probably that's not going to happen. Maduro has shown amazing skills and ability to survive all the attacks that he has suffered from abroad and inside of the country. And that is something that is worth the conversation because you're talking about not only a government, a regime that looks like it's really strong, but has people around it that are not willing to break that trust that Maduro has given them.

7:28People understand that it's not easy. And maybe that is why they're between, you know, those ideas. But definitely from the side of the Maduro supporters, now more than ever, they're unified. You know, they have the sense of an external enemy. And finally, because Maduro has been saying this for a long time, our enemy is the U.S. They want to attack. Raise your hand if you want to be a slave, he said to Venezuelans. Raise your hand if you want Venezuela to become a Yankee colony. Nobody did. they want to start a war with Venezuela, but never, it was never like, there was never a threat. But now there is actually, there's a palpable threat that proves him so right.

8:19And his followers are like, okay, now we do see that enemy and we are going to gather around you to protect the legacy of Hugo Chavez and what we have. And this again is the narrative that the government has been using. But I don't see this happening for the rest of Venezuela or for the rest of the people. All right. And when Trump makes these threats about Venezuela, how are people reacting? Are people stockpiling food? Are they preparing in other ways? It depends on the day. So when, for example, if President Donald Trump writes on social media, for example, as he did, the airspace is closed, get out of Venezuela, you know, the attack is imminent.

9:02If that is the sense, you're definitely going to see people buying more food, more water, talking to each other, trying to call people who know people to see if they know something. But if the general climate is peaceful, like today, you know, where you can feel the tension, but really nothing is happening, or at least we don't know something's happening. People are just trying to live their daily lives. People are still going to work. We are not seeing people running to the supermarkets whatsoever. Even if they do stock up on food weekly, it's not pandemonium. It's not something that is, you know, you're going to see on TV, people lining up in supermarkets like they did in 2016 to get something.

9:53So it's not the reaction you would expect. It's so confusing. The information is so scarce that people are just, okay, today I'll buy food. Then if nothing happens, I'll just eat it. Where is Maduro in all of this? How is he behaving knowing that these threats are coming from the U.S.? Internally, we don't really know what's happening. but Maduro is trying to show absolute peace and joy during the Christmas celebrations. Peace forever, forever, forever. He actually said that there was like a national mandate for people to party all week long because we needed, well, his followers needed to show the U.S.

10:40and the world that they're not worried about anything because... He claims this is just a psychological war that they've survived in the past. He has survived successfully in the past. Pressure, not only from the U.S., but internally from the opposition, protests, demonstrations, hundreds of thousands of people on the streets. And he believes that if he sits down, or at least this is what he is showing, if he sits down and wait, this is all going to go away. And he has done that in the past. So, you know, that's his strategy. It has worked and it makes total sense.

11:32Anna Vanessa Herrero in Caracas. She reports for The Washington Post. Coming up, what Maduro wants from a reporter who knows him.

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16:07I'm Noelle King. John Lee Anderson is a writer for The New Yorker. He knows Nicolas Maduro and has interviewed him.

16:17He's a big man. he's about six foot four or five. He's at least 250 pounds. He's warm in person. He likes to hug. He'll break into song if he's with the right crowd. The mainland of people.

16:39He's got that kind of swing. Maduro doesn't have quite the same magnetic persona that his mentor and predecessor Hugo Chavez did. You know, there has always been a pretty florid opposition in Venezuela, and he has cracked down hard on them. The opposition says their marches are peaceful, while the government accuses them of inciting the violence. It's arbitrary detentions, deaths during protests and in detention, torture, enforced disappearances and sexual and gender-based violence. Every day for weeks he was electrocuted until he passed out. They threatened him by telling him my children and I would be next if he didn't confess.

17:21He comes from the urban left. He was also a left-wing union organiser. He had some training in Cuba. He is not a Democrat. He sees himself as a revolutionary. I point this out to Americans because I think there's this idea that, you know, obviously, it's a kind of touchstone. We all talk about democracy as the ultimate ideal. Well, people who see themselves as revolutionaries in the same Marxist sense do not regard themselves as Democrats. They regard themselves as revolutionaries. And it presupposes a different set of assumptions about the way you proceed once you have power. And in the case of Nicolás Maduro and his military comrades who uphold this regime, it is about not giving up power.

18:12How did he get into power? You said Chávez was his mentor. Did Chávez hand the presidency over? What happened? He did. From a very early time, Maduro made himself useful and very close to Chavez. Maduro became head of the National Assembly at one point. He became foreign minister. He was foreign minister for about six years. And then he became his vice president. Chavez discovered that he had cancer in about 2011, early 2012, and privately knew he was dying. And he had a televised moment when he told the Venezuelan nation that he was, you know, he hoped to be around, but if anything happened to him.

18:55Elijan a Nicolás Maduro como presidente de la República Bolivariana. You know, Chávez died in 2013, and that's exactly what happened. Nicolás Maduro replaced him in power. To look at Venezuela today from the U.S. is to see a country that is an economic basket case, a country that people desperately want to flee because they are so poor. What was Venezuela like? What was happening when Maduro took over?

19:24From 2003 or 2004, I think it was, until about 2012-13, you had this worldwide spike in oil prices that brought in about a trillion dollars to Venezuela. It's a massive amount of money for any of the countries of the hemisphere outside of the United States. Venezuela was almost like an extension of the United States. They were, of course, there were the poor. There were the poor in the hills. And the hinterland was basically undeveloped. But the oil prices in the world, you know, they went up to$150 a barrel at one point. The country grew dependent on imports. And the steep drop in oil prices left it unable to pay for even some of the most basic necessities.

20:07They dropped precipitously right around the time Nicolás Maduro succeeded Chávez in office. And it went from, let's say, 120 to 40 or something. It was a real drop in their income. As oil prices went up, Venezuela spent it all. And we're going to continue into the intensification of the hyperinflation that we have at the moment. And the effect on Venezuelan society was immediate. It doesn't take you long in oil-rich Venezuela to find this. Roadblocks by people say and they're struggling to get food. Long lines of people snaking throughout the city as they wait hours for food. Some with nothing to show for it.

20:53Madura showed an incapacity, an inability to sort of, to turn on a dime. You know, he tried to bludgeon forward using rhetoric and eventually the army or paramilitaries to really push their case and try to acquire power. So it's been this kind of push me, pull you, very no holds barred, very polarized environment ever since. And look, one doesn't know the ultimate truth, but, you know, basically there's a consensus that he's stolen every election ever since. So ever since then, Maduro's sort of been in a corner. There's very little to find in the way of infrastructure and investment. Where did those trillion dollars go?

21:38Well, you know, some of it was well intended. There was an effort at a kind of social welfare system that never really existed before. On the other hand, a lot of it was ripped off. There was a huge amount of corruption. Who is Maduro's opposition? When and how do they start to form inside of Venezuela? Look, there's always been an opposition to el chavismo, which is the term given to the political movement that Hugo Chavez founded. So, the people that loved him called themselves chavistas. Over time, you know, they have been effective at grinding down most of the opposition. Now, having said that, there's always someone who emerges from the murk and, you know, bears their chest to the regime and shakes their fist at it.

22:34And in the past couple of years, it's been this woman. She's been around a while, but she's now emerged as the top dog of the opposition. You know, the kind of saving grace of non-Chavista Venezuela. And that's Maria Corina Machado. Because Maduro has failed so far that he can disappear people. He can put children in jail, accuse them of terrorism, torture them. Once we liberate Venezuela, Cuba will follow. Nicaragua will follow. We will have this continent free of communism, dictatorship and narco-terrorism. She campaigned vigorously and openly against Maduro, was declared to be illegitimate on fairly specious grounds by the country's electoral tribunal, which is another way they neutralize the opposition.

23:30Now, she's clever, and she's also very connected with Americans and other political groups outside. And so, okay, I'm illegal? Well, fine. And she found a a retired former diplomat who wouldn't harm a fly and who nobody in Venezuela barely knew, as her straw man candidate. He couldn't be banned because he had done nothing, Edmundo Gonzalez. And he ran in the elections last summer against Maduro. But everybody knew if they voted for him, they were really voting for her, and that somehow she would emerge from behind him. And the evidence suggests that Edmundo Gonzalez, fronting for her, won the election.

24:17But of course, Maduro is still the president. I want to bring Trump into this. So Donald Trump takes office in 2016, and he and Maduro seem to genuinely dislike each other. Maduro is not a Venezuelan patriot. He is a Cuban puppet. Donald Trump, with Venezuela, don't get you.

24:39But I wonder, is this just a case of an American president and a Venezuelan president really disliking each other because they have very different goals and ambitions? Or is there something unique about the Trump-Maduro relationship? One of the very first meetings, in fact, the very first meeting that Donald Trump in his first term had with his colleagues in Latin America, It wasn't with all of them. And I've talked to a couple of them, former heads of state. The first words out of Donald Trump's mouth was, I want to invade Venezuela or or let let's invade Venezuela, something like that. Like, why can't I invade Venezuela?

25:22I want to get rid of that guy, Maduro. And they were shocked. And they said, well, Mr. President, that's probably not a good idea. I think we can work together to see if we can pressure him to, you know, do this or that. And it kind of went on from there. So he came into office back in 2017 wanting to overthrow Maduro. You know, Maduro had been vilified by the conservative American emigre community since he took office, as had Chávez before him. They were seen as a new Cuban revolution, Castro Chavismo. And of course, you know, Trump is Mar-a-Lago, right? And who is around him in Florida? I mean, look at the panoply of characters that are there.

26:12You have an extremely conservative political environment. You have Colombian Americans, Venezuelan Americans, Cuban Americans, and others who have emerged, as we've all seen over the past X many years, as arch conservatives, very effective lobbyists on behalf of the political opponents to anything smelling of the left in Latin America to take an opportunity. All right. President Trump wants Nicolas Maduro out. How easy or hard would that be? Who was it? It wasn't Dick Cheney. It was one of the Vulcans that promised that getting rid of Saddam Hussein and taking over Iraq, another oil rich state, remember, would be a cakewalk.

26:58Well, it certainly wasn't a cakewalk. Now, I'm not suggesting that something similar would happen in Venezuela. We're talking about a very different ethos, I guess, or mystique that permeates the self-proclaimed revolutionary left, such as it still exists in Latin America, around Venezuela. but it has to be said that this government is military. Chavez did a great deal to inculcate a new generation of soldiers and young officers with ideology that was anti-imperialist, therefore anti-American, anti-Yankee, that kind of thing. And there has been, you know, Cuban advisors in and out of Venezuela for a very long time, and they've worked effectively and continuously in the intelligence services, counterintelligence services, which by all accounts is one of the reasons why all the coup attempts and conspiracy attempts against Masuda have failed.