Is Cuba next?

0:01Noel King:It's been a wild couple days for Iran developments. The latest, Ayatollah Khamenei's son will replace him as supreme leader. President Trump might reinstate the draft. President Trump wisely does not remove options off of the table. Then on Sunday, there was this unforgettable tweet from Meghan McCain. I've known Lindsey Graham since I was a child. I'm imploring anyone who will listen in the Trump administration to stop sending this man out as a surrogate. He is scaring people. OK, so Senator Graham was interviewed on Fox, where he went ham on Iran. We're going to blow the hell out of these people.

0:37But it ain't about money today. It's about six Americans who died in the defense of our country.

0:44Noel King:Then at the end, Graham made a chilling geographical and geostrategic turn. Iran is going down and Cuba is next. Is Cuba next? We're going to ask on Today Explained. Senator, thank you very much. Thought Sweetgreen was just salads? Think again. There's a new way to do Sweetgreen. Wrapped and ready. These handheld wraps pack bold flavor and 40-plus grams of protein into something hearty, satisfying, and built for life on the go. From craveable sauces to satisfying textures, they're designed to keep you going without slowing you down. So put that fork down. Try the new wraps today in app or at order.sweetgreen.com.

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1:39Noel King:She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say, and she replies with a low, shh, listen. So we sat there, listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's, it's your happy place.

2:07Están escuchando a Hoy Explicado.

2:11Noel King:You're listening to Today Explained. Vivian Salama, staff writer, The Atlantic, reporting on wars and rumors of wars. So as the bombs were flying in Iran within hours of the military operations starting, we know that in the Situation Room at the White House and those gilded secure rooms of Mar-a-Lago, there were whispers of this grand plan that many in Washington and capitals around the world probably once thought was unthinkable. And that is the toppling of not one, not two, but three autocracies that have literally tormented generations of American presidents. And so the U.S. and Israel teamed up and launched their military operations in Iran just weeks after President Trump ordered his lightning strike that put Venezuela's president in a New York City courtroom.

3:12And we know that President Trump is already eyeing his next target, which is Cuba. But for 50 years, I've been hearing as a little boy, I'd be hearing about Cuba. You know, Cuba's a disaster.

3:27Noel King:Cuba, Cuba. Do we know what the Trump administration plans to do in Cuba? We don't know. I don't know if they know, to be honest with you. I think the end game is very apparent to them, which is that they want that post Castro regime that's now running Cuba to go away. And this is part in part part of the president's grander scheme to lock down American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere. Under our new national security strategy, American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again. He's talked about this at great length in the last year, as have many within his administration.

4:12It was in his national security strategy. They now call it the Dunro document. I don't know. It is, you know, at the root of so many of the policies that we've heard him talk about since he took office for a second time, annexing Greenland. Now what I'm asking for is a piece of ice. Taking over the Panama Canal. My administration will be reclaiming the Panama Canal. Even making Canada the 51st state. Because they should be the 51st state, really. It would make a great state. And the people of Canada like it. All of that rooted in this concept that the president has, that American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere is imperative for its national security, but also for his legacy.

4:57Noel King:Does the president really believe that the post-Castro regime in Cuba poses a threat to American supremacy? I think the president does believe that. You know, remember, Cuba is located just 90 miles from Key West. That has been a thorn on the side, not just of this president, but of generations of presidents, Democrats and Republicans alike. It is clear that the forces of communism are not to be underestimated in Cuba or anywhere else in the world. What's happening in Cuba is not a failure of the Cuban people, it's a failure of Fidel Castro and of communism. Cuba see, Castro no. All the people of Cuba must be able to learn the truth about the regime in Havana.

5:46The isolation it has earned for itself through its contempt for basic human rights and international law. No matter what the dictator intends or plans, Cuba será pronto y libre.

6:03And President Trump, now on a high from his successful ousting of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, his, you know, in part with Israel, killing of the Ayatollah Khamenei and this ongoing effort to bring about an end to the Iranian regime, although they still do not blatantly say that this is a regime change operation, but it seems clear that that's where it's heading. Advisors are telling me that he feels like he's on a roll. It's working. And so Cuba is next on the list. Cuba's at the end of the line. They're very much at the end of the line.

6:47Noel King:When President Trump is asked about the timing, about why now exactly, what does he say? What does his administration say? So there are various elements to this, right? You know, you have the immigration element of it. The president, you know, believed that Nicolas Maduro's regime was supporting narco-terrorism, and that was their justification for it. It's why they said that removing him was a law enforcement operation. He was arrested on the ground in Venezuela by FBI agents, read his rights, and removed from the country. Because they believed that he is, at the end of the day, supporting the trafficking of illegal drugs into the United States.

7:30That was their justification. And the reason I'm starting to answer your question about Cuba with Venezuela is because that's been the key element here. Venezuela has been propping up the Cuban regime now for a few decades. This dates back to Hugo Chavez being in power in Venezuela and Fidel Castro still in power in Cuba. This was just at the end of the Cold War when the Iron Curtain came down. Mr. Gorbachev teared down this wall. and Russia was trying to kind of lick its wounds and figure out its next steps. Of course, during the Cold War, the Soviet Union was a major supporter of Cuba. Russians turned out in thousands to show the world, and America in particular, that Niki loves Fidel.

8:26President Castro had the red carpet treatment all the way to the Red Square. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba lost its biggest benefactor. Enter Venezuela and Hugo Chavez, who was a socialist. Cuban-Venezuelan solidarity has been rooted in the shared vision of a united Latin America, as envisioned by Simón Bolívar and José Martí. Where are the Bolivar women? And the Bolivar men? And the Bolivar men? Fidel Castro saw him as a protege and really groomed him to be able to have this sort of brotherly relationship where Cuba would send doctors and, you know, other support to Venezuela in exchange for oil.

9:12Venezuela has been supplying for years subsidized crude oil to Cuba. And in return, Cuba sends back health workers and military and intelligence personnel. More than 60 ,000 Venezuelans have traveled to Cuba free of charge for medical care. And there are now more than a thousand clinics in Venezuela, staffed mainly by Cuban doctors.

9:37Flash forward to 2026, Nicolas Maduro is toppled. That is, Nicolas Maduro was Chavez's successor. The U.S.

9:49also launched intense operations to try to establish a blockade in the Caribbean where any Venezuelan oil that was trying to get out illegally, I emphasize illegally, to Cuba or anywhere else would be seized. And they started doing that quite intensely, maybe dating back to October, November, before Maduro was officially overthrown. And so that lifeline that Cuba was getting from Venezuela has now been virtually eliminated. On top of the fact that their economy has been crumbling for many years now, in part because of crippling sanctions that the U.S. has imposed on it, in part because COVID really did a number on their economy and other factors as well.

10:34But that's been key.

10:35Noel King:From where we sit in early March, we know that both Venezuela and Iran share, have shared a very big question after the U.S. gets involved, which is who takes over? Who is set to take over in Cuba? Who does the U.S. want in charge? Well, this is the big question, right? And the U.S. does not outwardly talk about any particular individuals. We know that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been talking to the former president's grandson, Raul Castro's grandson, trying to see if they could find some sort of a solution. There have been sort of back-channel talks between the U.S. and the Cuban regime to see if a deal could be struck where they could maybe peacefully and quietly, you know, hit the road.

11:25President Trump joked about a friendly takeover a few weeks ago. So very well end up having a friendly takeover of Cuba. And so, you know, they've sort of alluded to the fact that the U.S. would kind of go in there and do some sort of regime change operation. But what they haven't talked about, and it's rather intentional, is what comes after the post Castro regime.

11:48Noel King:Let me ask you, lastly, President Trump is talking like this is inevitable. inevitable. Cuba's in its last moments of life as it was. It'll have a great new life, but it's in its last moments of life the way it is. What do you think? Is this inevitable? Reading the tea leaves, it certainly feels like this could be inevitable. Again, you know, to one of your first questions, why now? Because they believe the circumstances are ripe for regime change in Cuba. They see between Venezuela, between the momentum that the U.S. has had, that this is going to work if they do it now. The time to strike is now.

12:30And I also want to emphasize that, you know, President Trump's coalition, his MAGA coalition, has not been that open to some of this military adventurism. You know, a lot of them pointing to the fact that it goes against America first. It betrays America first. That President Trump is fixated on overseas conflicts and not paying enough attention to the economy and other issues that are weighing heavily on the minds of Americans. And folks I speak to in the White House say that, yes, they are concerned that the president's focus on some of these overseas operations could ultimately come back to haunt Republicans, certainly, who are on the ticket this November.

13:21But at the end of the day, I think there is a sense, especially among those who are advocating for these military operations, that it's like ripping off a Band-Aid. You get them done quickly, one, two, three, punch. And that way, come summertime, the president can go out there when he's on the trail campaigning for some of these people in the ballot to say, look at what Republicans have given you. We've given you victory overseas. America is safer now because we did this.

13:55And the memory of those military operations, the strain that they brought, will be behind them at that point. And they can focus on domestic issues. Whether or not that works out remains to be seen. But that is definitely the objective that they're looking to achieve.

14:18Noel King:That was The Atlantic's Vivian Salama. Coming up next, a Cuban journalist who fled the country a few years back tells me why he welcomes Trump.

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17:50Now at Hilton.com. Hilton, for this day.

17:58This is Today Explained. My name is Joe Suarez, and I was a journalist in Cuba.

18:06Noel King:You left in the summer of 2022. Why did you leave Cuba? Well, I leave Cuba basically because of the persecution that the regime imposed on journalists, independent activists, people who want freedom for the island, a change. And I was one of those. I was doing reporting, investigative reporting on things like torture, political prisoners, persecution of religious minorities. in that case that put a target over me. And the regime harassed me in different ways. I was kidnapped once by the political police. I was detained several times. My family was harassed. My mother, my wife also, who is a journalist, also was a journalist in Cuba.

18:55So the breakpoint for us was when the regime says, you are raising a child. We had a baby in that moment that is going to become a counter-revolutionary because you are a counter-revolutionary. So we're going to take your kid from you, away from you. And that was our breaking point. My wife and I, we talked about that because we think family is the first homeland and we had to protect our kid. I think we protect, we try to protect him as much as we can. And for instance, there was a moment when the political police kidnapped me in the middle of the street. I was walking in the neighborhood and trying to get some money from an ATM.

19:39And the political police just came and they said, you have to come with us. And they basically were trying to threaten me because of my investigative reporting on political prisoners, torture, that kind of stuff. And my wife was waiting for me at home with lunch. She was waiting for me and she just didn't saw me come back, came back. So how we deal with that and our kid was a baby, but he kind of asks, where is dad? we tried to deal in a very you know, it was tough it was tough, and I was free like two hours later but I don't want to share with him, in front of him what was happening, because I don't want him to hate his country the country where he was born I don't want hate to I can separate the country which is wonderful, it's a geographical paradise, an amazing story but the government is so terrible.

20:42The system is terrible. The system is diabolical. So I don't want him to be traumatized and thinking, okay, this country, I hate this piece of land because what they did to my dad or my mom or how my mom was suffering. What is it like to live in Cuba? 89 % of Cuban households live in extreme poverty. Can you imagine? Seven out of 10 Cubans cannot eat three meals a day because of lack of money or food shortages. The other thing is when you get some food, the blackouts are so long that you can lose that food in your fridge. It can rot. And it's super sad because the lines to get food, lines that I myself did before I arrived here to the U.S.

21:31could be like 12 hours to get a piece of chicken that is not enough to feed your family. So the despair is tangible in Cuba. It's big in Cuba. You can feel the despair.