Israel has lost Americans

0:00The president isn't the most reliable narrator when it comes to his war in Iran. You just suggested that Iran somehow got its hands on a tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war. But you're the only person in your government saying this. But as it drags on and the Ayatollah gets replaced by his even more extreme Ayatollah son, you gotta wonder why we're there. If you ask some of the people closest to President Trump, the answer seems to be Israel. Here's Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

0:29Sean Rameswaram:We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. Senator Lindsey Graham told The Wall Street Journal that he coached Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on how to lobby Trump to join a war against Iran. He admitted that. Israel is driving American foreign policy at the exact moment that Americans on the left and on the right increasingly disapprove of Israel. Israel has lost Americans on Today Explained. Support for this show today comes from The Guardian. If you listen to our show, my guess is that you value independent voices and perspectives on the news.

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1:29Sean Rameswaram:This episode is brought to you by Nordstrom. Spring calls for a wardrobe refresh, and Nordstrom has the best styles of the season. From dresses and denim to standout tops and accessories, find the trends and essentials that feel right for you. Discover new arrivals from brands you love, like WAIF, Princess Polly, Mango, Adidas, and Free People. Plus, free shipping and returns, and free styling appointments make everything so easy. Shop in stores at Nordstrom.com or download the Nordstrom app.

2:07You're listening to Today Explained. Ross Barkin is a columnist at New York Magazine, and he's on the show today to tell us about our increasingly complicated feelings about Israel. Well, since October 7th and the war in Gaza, you've seen real declining support for Israel among younger voters. It's been quite dramatic.

2:31Sean Rameswaram:We went from Democrats favoring the Israelis by 26 points to the Palestinians by 46 points. That is a shift, John. This is the first time since Gallup started keeping records on the question in 2001 that support for Israel has dipped below the 50 percent mark. And it's gotten to the point where it's begun to span party lines. but particularly on the left in the Democratic Party. If you're talking about voters under the age of 40, sympathy for the Palestinian cause and antipathy or skepticism in Israel is much higher. This Iran war, I argue at least, is only going to drive the left, younger Democrats especially, away from Israel.

3:15I think you're going to start to see even older Democrats grow more skeptical because this is a war as the Trump administration has said very bluntly, is being driven by Israel, by Netanyahu's desires to strike Iran.

3:27Sean Rameswaram:We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even higher those killed. And now we're engaged in a very deadly, destructive war that has killed American troops. The Pentagon says more than 140 U.S. service members have been wounded over the past 10 days during Operation Epic Fury in the Middle East. Eight severely on top of the seven U.S. troops killed since the war began. It's killed many, many civilians in the Middle East.

4:03The Red Crescent says over 1 ,300 Iranians have been killed in one week of war.

4:07Sean Rameswaram:The war has so far killed nearly 500 people in Lebanon and 11 in Israel. And it's created a lot of chaos for the Gulf states and most directly for Americans. It's raising the price of gasoline. Filling up has become a lot more expensive, 43 cents a gallon more. Gas prices have spiked the highest that they've been since 2023. I'm paying 40 bucks, but that doesn't get me a full tank anymore. So you take all that together, and I believe that support for Israel in the long term, certainly in the Democratic Party, is going to continue to slide. And you're starting to see some examples of that now with how the 2028 candidates are talking about Israel in particular.

4:55Well, I want to talk about how this war is influencing the left's views of Israel as well as the rights. But let's go in that order. So what have you seen in terms of fractures on the left over this war when it comes to views on Israel? Well, if talking about the Democratic Party broadly, at the top of the party, you still have older Democrats who are very supportive of Israel, but don't like that Trump did not seek congressional authorization for the war. So that's the argument of Chuck Schumer, the minority leader.

5:34Sean Rameswaram:Trump doesn't care about being honest and direct with the American people. He doesn't care about the soldiers he's putting in harm's way. Hakeem Jeffries, the minority leader of the House, probably the next speaker. Donald Trump, without justification and without coming to Congress, has gotten America into a Middle Eastern war that we know will not end well. And then you have a lot of younger Democrats, progressives certainly, who are extremely critical, have wanted to do things for a while now, like condition military aid to Israel. I think that the idea of completely unconditional aid, no matter what one does, does not make sense.

6:18Sean Rameswaram:I think it enabled a genocide in Gaza. People should know. People might need to hit the streets again to make sure that the government knows that we don't want our taxpayer money going towards that. I'm not anti-Israel. I'm pro-people. and also are really trying to rethink how the American foreign policy orients itself around Israel, where for a long time, Democrats would say, whatever Israel wants to do, they should get to do, that they're the democracy in the Middle East, they're the Jewish state. You're starting to see a real shift. And even among the mainstream, you know, sort of center-left candidates, you are witnessing a change in tone and language.

7:01I look at someone like Gavin Newsom, who has been very supportive of Israel throughout his career. He recently called the Israeli government sort of an apartheid state. And this sort of language would have been unfathomable even three years ago. It'd be called, like, anti-Semitic, right? It'd be called anti-Semitic, and your career would be in jeopardy. It would be the kind of thing you would have to apologize for. it would be viewed as a very fringe argument to make. And as recently as 2024, you had the pro-Palestine uncommitted movement, which was trying to build a protest against the Biden administration's approach to Israel and Gaza.

7:47And no one from that movement was allowed to even speak at the DNC. All they were asking that summer, and I was there, was to be able to address the convention for a few minutes. Today, I watched my party say our tent can fit anti-choice Republicans, but it can't fit an elected official like me. I do not understand why being a Palestinian has become disqualifying in this country. And that was viewed as such a risk by Harris, by the fated Biden, that it could not be. They were locked out. and the 2028 convention, I imagine, is going to look different. And you've already jumped ahead to like 2028 projections, how candidates might act.

8:33We talked about Gavin Newsom. I get the feeling he might be running. But let's talk about this moment right here, a moment in which Democrats don't hold a lot of power in the federal government. Are we seeing manifestations of this break with traditional democratic views on Israel manifest itself in any way from the Democrats in the government? So federally, the War Powers Resolution vote that just took place in the House, which was trying to stop Trump from bombing Iran, got the support of almost all Democrats. There were a few more conservative pro-Israel Democrats that broke with the party, but not many.

9:16It was the vast majority supported that War Powers Resolution. So I would say you start there on the level of voting. And I think you see how senators are starting to speak about Israel. I mean, you have like Chris Van Hollen, for example, who's a very mainstream politician, senator from Maryland.

9:35Sean Rameswaram:Kids in Gaza are now dying from the deliberate withholding of food. That is a war crime. And that makes those who orchestrate it war criminals. You have younger politicians. You know, Senator John Ossoff has also been very critical of the Israeli government. He's Jewish. Concern for the innocent, especially when fighting an enemy unbound by any morality, demonstrates the values for which the U.S. should stand and which Israel proclaims. The same values meant to be the bedrock of our alliance. This was just something you would not have seen even five to six years ago. Right. Right. And I guess, as you're sort of suggesting here, they can't really do a ton about it yet.

10:21But the earliest sign of how this might be influencing where this party is going might be the midterms. And another thing you think about when you think about the midterms is campaign fundraising. Of course, AIPAC has been a major donor to Democrats and also Republicans, but we can get to that later. Does a John Ossoff coming out and speaking out against Israel change the likelihood of his ability to fundraise now? Well, what's remarkable has been the backlash to APEC and the amount of politicians who say they won't take APEC donations, who are willing to criticize the organization. You start there.

10:58People were saying, I don't think our tax payer dollars should go to starve children in Gaza. And APEC said, really? OK, we're going to spend hundreds of thousands, millions of dollars to defeat you. Well, I've never taken money from AIPAC, and I'm not taking money from AIPAC in this campaign. Seeing what's happening in Gaza makes me sick to my stomach. Tom Malinowski, who's the former congressman, was running for his old seat in New Jersey. He lost the primary in part because AIPAC decided to spend millions of dollars against him. And he offered what were, in the context of even today, mild criticism of the Israeli government.

11:34So there's anger towards AIPAC. Will it affect fundraising? I think not so much in this online era. I mean, one thing about the internet is it's much easier to fundraise, but the Israel skeptical position is growing, or even those willing to offer small criticisms of the government. And the AIPAC approach to all that has been you bring a hammer, and you keep hitting, and you keep hitting, and you scare the politicians, and you bludgeon them. And over time, you get compliance. And there's a lot of mainstream Democrats who are tired of that. And they're telling APEC, why don't you just go deal with the Republicans?

12:13We don't want to beat your conferences anymore. We don't want your money.

12:25The Republicans, when we return on Today Explained.

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16:15Today, explain is back. I'm still Sean Ramos from and I'm still with Ross Barkin from New York Magazine. Ross, you were kind of teeing up that AIPAC could just have to court the Republicans a little harder now that Democrats are breaking with the group. What is broadly going on on the right where, you know, the right is in charge, but also the right isn't uniform on Israel anymore. So at the top of the Republican Party, you have the Israel Hawks. The strongly pro-Israel side controls the party. So you have Marco Rubio.

16:51Sean Rameswaram:I'm confident in saying that President Trump's administration will continue to be perhaps the most pro-Israel administration in American history. Senators like Lindsey Graham. To all the anti-Seminites, to all the isolationists, I don't believe. Forget it. I'm not with you. I'm with Israel. I will be with Israel to our dying day. Tom Cotton. Why does Israel have a responsibility to provide aid to Gaza? Israel was the victim of an unprovoked, vicious attack on October 7th. We didn't provide aid to Germany and Japan during World War II. And Ted Cruz. Growing up in Sunday school, I was taught from the Bible, those who bless Israel will be blessed, and those who curse Israel will be cursed.

17:29You could tick off many senators who are very hawkish on Israel or have evangelical ties. An evangelical base of the Republican Party has been a driver of its pro-Israel politics for decades, along with the money that flows into the party. So that traditional pro-Israel side is still strong. And what is interesting is the shift at the bottom. Just as young progressives and younger voters broadly in the Democratic Party have grown Israel skeptical, you're seeing a burgeoning grassroots Israel skeptical MAGA way.

18:08Sean Rameswaram:Being a conservative or being a Trump supporter or being part of MAGA does not mean you have to accept another Middle East war. Which just seems so insane based on what he ran on. I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed, right? But there's also just a real dissatisfaction with Israel among 20-something young conservatives who are not especially religious. They signed up for America first. They voted for Donald Trump in 2024 because he said, You're not going to have a war with me and you're not going to have a third world war with me. That I can tell you. He said, We are not the policemen of the world.

18:51He attacked the Bush administration. He attacked neoconservatives. He made a mockery of men like Marco Rubio. He told them that Republican Party is dead and we're going to build an ultra-nationalist, closed-border, isolationist country.

19:09Sean Rameswaram:I will end the illegal immigration crisis by closing our border and finishing the wall, most of which I've already built. From this day forward, It's going to be only America first. America first. And so if you voted for that, you are wondering, why are we in this war? And Nick Fuentes is speaking to some of these words. Well, if Trump is an errand boy for Israel, then you got to shut down his government. And that means you got to go into the midterms and you got to get the Democrats in. and the Democrats hopefully will impede the administration. Nick Fuentes is an anti-Semite and he's also anti-Trump.

19:56And he said, I don't vote for Trump. And he kind of exists in his own wing. But I think what's important to keep in mind is someone like Fuentes or someone like Carlson, even someone like Owens, not all their followers are anti-Semitic. I mean, they have a lot of people listening to them. And a lot of them are just looking for conservative voices who will criticize what's happening. who look at the war in Iran and say, this doesn't make a lot of sense.

20:23Sean Rameswaram:This is an effort to expand the territory and the influence of Israel in the Middle East. Of course, again, not attacking Israel, it's just a fact. Who's the bigger terrorist is the question today. I would say as an American that if we're going to get behind a regime change, it should be in Israel first. And I do think this is going to be a longer term shift. I do think in one to two decades from now, even the Republican Party might alter how it views Israel. And so I do think in the coming years, you're going to see perhaps a movement back more to the Reagan-Bush approach. But in the meanwhile, as you point out, this is not America first.

21:08Is that tearing the base apart, the MAGA base? Or are they willing to, like in so many other cases that preceded this one, follow their leader wherever he may want to go? So, you know, I guess the way I would put it is I would distinguish between the hardcore Republican who will support Trump no matter what. And they're excited about this war. And then you have maybe someone who voted for Trump in 2024. Maybe they voted in 2020 for Trump as well. They considered themselves right-meaning or conservative, but they're not showing up at a Trump rally. They're not wearing the merch. They just don't like Democrats that much.

21:43I do think there's a lot of more marginal Republican voters who are going to sour on this war if it drags on. That's a key, too. I mean, the remarkable thing about this Iran war is that it's not popular already, broadly speaking, if it is in the Republican Party. And that's a shift from what usually happens with wars, where initially they do enjoy a kind of uniform support, or there's a rally around the flag effect. We've skipped that entirely. We're almost to the point where we're at the war-weary part of the conflict. And so if this war is going on months from now, if gas prices have not gone down, I do think there's going to be more and more Republicans and perhaps even people who are strongly supportive of MAGA who do turn on Trump.

22:38Republicans in Congress had the chance to rein in the president last week. They opted not to do so. We asked Ross if that's just the nature of Republican politics at this moment. It's the nature of following him. It's also Iran as a villain. I mean, for like the real pro-Israel Republican, they are like the number one villain. The fact that Trump could say, I killed the Ayatollah, even though nothing has changed in the country. And his son took over, right? His son took over. Repression remains. And anyone who studies Iran even a little bit could tell you that's what would happen. It's an extremely complicated society with a very entrenched theocratic regime.