Little Marco’s big portfolio

0:00Marco Rubio now has four jobs in this still new Trump administration. Can you name them all? You know he's our Secretary of State. That one's easy. You maybe heard that last week he became the president's new interim national security advisor. Hmm, I wonder what happened to the last guy. We don't talk about signal, no, no, no, no. Also, Marco's the acting head of USAID, which you might recall from early February when USAID was disappearing. The fourth one's the toughest, though. Marco Rubio somehow managed to become our nation's chief archivist. Our biggest question today explained is, does he make four salaries?

0:43I don't know. We've been like there are people, reporters trying to find out the answer to that question. All right. But we still have a bunch of other lingering questions like how, why, what? Answers ahead on the show. Marco. Rubio. Dang. This way! Nahal Tusi wrote about how Marco Rubio became so important at work for Politico. Well, in a way, he did it by not being Marco Rubio. He kind of abandoned everything that he or much of what he has stood for in the past, endeared himself to Trump, supported the president vocally and through policy changes, and just, you know, earned the president's trust.

1:43The president has made his argument as to why he thinks Canada would be better off joining the United States for economic purposes. The president rightly has concluded that the current status of global trade is bad for America and good for a bunch of other people. And he's going to reset it. And he's absolutely right to do it. I will also say it's also kind of hard to get into the Trump circle. There's not a lot of people who meet the loyalty test. And Rubio has proven that he can do that. But the reason that it's important to point this out is because when he took the initial position of secretary of state, many people viewed him as one of the weakest in Trump's orbit.

2:22I wrote an entire column about how all these people in town were saying he is not going to last very long. He won't last even six months as secretary of state. And so the fact that he has climbed the ranks and taken all these positions and earned the president's trust in such a way, that is really remarkable. But it just goes to show how unrecognizable he is compared to what Marco Rubio was, you know, five, 10 years ago. That's what's so interesting here, I think, right? Because Marco Rubio's been around a long time. When you hear candidate Donald Trump talking about draining the Washington swamp, it's like people like Marco Rubio, who you could almost picture as representing the swamp.

3:09There were reports that he was asking President Biden for for more funding for USAID before he became one of the faces of the elimination of of USAID. He is not exactly MAGA. And are you saying that there hasn't been much tension there between Rubio and Trump? Well, you know, Rubio is, I wouldn't say he's like a traditional, traditional Republican. Like he kind of came in on a wave of reactionariness to the establishment. But he, over time, established his bona fides in the Senate as a hawkish Republican, pro-human rights, pro-democracy promotion. I've never met Vladimir Putin, but I know enough about him to know he's a gangster.

4:01He's basically an organized crime figure that runs a country, controls a two trillion dollar economy and is using it to build up his military in a rapid way, despite the fact his economy is a disaster. Definitely pro humanitarian assistance. Anybody who tells you that we can slash foreign aid and that will bring us to balance is lying to you. Foreign aid is less than one percent of our budget. It's just not true. The type of guy who supported Ukraine. I think the first and most important thing we need to do is we have to help the Ukrainian people. Wants to be tough on dictatorships around the world, including Iran.

4:36And he ran against President Trump in 2016 for the presidency. And the President Trump back then nicknamed him. Little Marco, I will. Well, let's hear a big, big Donald. Don't worry about it. Don't worry about it, little Marco. But I would say he also has proven to be a very flexible type of politician. Over the last several years, he has moderated his positions. My understanding is he's gone out and learned a lot about the American heartland. He's from Florida. And he's a little bit more of a restrainer than he was in the past. But, you know, now that he has joined the Trump team, he has really gone to the MAGA world to the point where even like far right influencers like Laura Loomer are now praising Marco Rubio.

5:30I was just sitting here thinking, wow, Marco Rubio is on a generational comeback from 2016. Who knew we would be Marco fans nine years later? Just would not have happened. Honestly, even a couple of years ago. I mean, it really shows how far the transition of Marco Rubio, the change has really accelerated since he has joined the Trump administration. And I imagine much of that acceleration has happened via his initial job, secretary of state. Yes. And part of the reason that that has happened is because he's used that perch to, first of all, totally agree very vocally with a lot of Trump policies.

6:14Right. In defending, for instance, President Trump's takedown of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in that famous Oval Office meeting that we will all dream about for the rest of our lives. Don't come here and create a scenario where you're going to start lecturing us about how diplomacy isn't going to work. President Zelensky took it in that direction and it ended in a predictable outcome as a result. But wasn't Rubio maybe one of the only cabinet members in that meeting who looked sort of uncomfortable? Wasn't that the vibe? He looked like he was sinking into the couch. But afterward, he got on TV.

6:50He went public. He defended the president. He realized immediately, OK, I have to speak out or it's going to look like I'm not supportive of President Trump and I have to be subordinate to him. Look, another area where he's really, really been like astonishingly pro-Trump is the anti-immigration stuff. And this is really remarkable for Rubio because he has often touted his own family's immigrant story. They're from Cuba. Well, my parents came to this country because they were looking for a better life. And now he is seemingly gleefully stripping students of their visas and, you know, negotiating deals that are sending people to a prison in El Salvador without them getting proper hearings in courts.

7:35And he's even suggesting he'll defy the judges if they request information in support of Trump. Have you been in touch with El Salvador about returning Abrego Garcia? Has a formal request from this administration been made? Well, I would never tell you that. And you know who else I'll never tell? A judge. Because the conduct of our foreign policy belongs to the president of the United States and the executive branch, not some judge. So it's like some of these things you think, wow, does he have to go this far? But obviously it's working for him in terms of surviving under Trump. But who knows?

8:07Like a month from now, Marco Rubio may be out of favor. You just don't really know what's going to happen. I think a lot of people thought that Mike Waltz, the national security advisor who was pushed out, would last longer than he did. So now that Rubio is actually in charge of these key portfolios, national security advisor and the State Department, in a way he has a bigger target on his back too, right? Because he's going to be responsible for any major crisis that happens.

8:41Yeah. So this is the job he most recently acquired, Donald Trump's chief national security advisor. What exactly does that entail? So the national security advisor is based at the White House and they basically are kind of like a point guard. They have they keep an eye on what all the agencies are thinking. they coordinate and they bring together options for the president when it comes to foreign policy and national security issues. Now, that's if they kind of do it in the way that's considered proper, which is to be an honest broker, to be the guy that says, look, here's what state is thinking.

9:24Here's what DOD is thinking. Here's what the CIA wants. A lot of national security advisors acquire more power than that. They very much have their own points of view. They do their own negotiations. They kind of rival other people in the administration for power. And that's kind of always caused a bit of tension in past administrations. So, you know, we definitely could have seen like Rubio at odds with a national security advisor in the future, but now it would be like being at odds with himself. Is there any conflict there? Does being Trump's chief national security advisor come at the expense of his other roles, especially Secretary of State?

10:09Look, one of the key mysteries right now is how is he going to do both jobs, right, at the same time? And remember, he has two other jobs, but let's put those aside. So how he splits his time is going to be something that's going to be very important to watch. The only person who's done this in the past is Henry Kissinger, and that was in the 70s. And back then, you know, the world was, to be honest, not as complicated. Not that it was great, but it was not what we have now. What do you think he's excited about accomplishing as our secretary of state, if not our national security advisor, our chief archivist and the head of USAID?

10:51Look, I think if he survives in the roles for several months or over a year, that is an accomplishment. under President Trump, survival is difficult. He has a constant turnover in the past. In terms of other accomplishments, look, whether it is as National Security Advisor or Secretary of State or the National Archivist, for all I know, if this administration were to strike important deals with Iran, say, over its nuclear program or bring about some sort of a peace between Russia and Ukraine. These are things that they can point to as accomplishments.

11:38I do want to point out there is another major player in terms of foreign policy right now, and that's Steve Witkoff. He's a special envoy for the president. He's actually the lead on portfolios like Iran and Ukraine. But Rubio now in particular can very much have a major role in those as well. And ultimately, look, ultimately, the president is the one who's going to take the credit for the accomplishments. And knowing how Rubio is operating, he will definitely see the limelight to the president.

12:19Read Nahal Tusi at Politico.com. President Trump said he'd solve Russia-Ukraine on day one. How Trump, Marko, and Witkoff are doing there on day 107 when we return on Today Explained.

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15:26You're listening to Today Explained. I'm not apologetic about it. I'm still Sean Ramos for him, and I'm now here with Josh Keating, a senior correspondent at Vox covering foreign policy and national security. Josh, candidate Trump promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war on day one of his second term. How's that going for President Trump? Let me check the date today. No, it seems like we have not quite gotten there yet. You know, the things that are the root causes of this conflict are not really things that Trump or any U.S. president is necessarily able to deliver. So it's not surprising to me that it's proven a lot more difficult to get this deal than he was expecting.

16:14Typically, this would be the work of the secretary of state. But there's this third elephant in the room in Steve Whitcoff. Tell us what exactly his role is here. There's almost been this sort of mini side drama over who the U.S. envoy for this conflict was. When Trump first got into office, he selected this guy, Keith Kellogg, who had been Mike Pence's national security advisor in the first term. He was briefly the acting national security advisor for Trump, comes from a more sort of traditional hawk. He's a MAGA guy, but like a MAGA hawk. And he was going to be the one who was going to negotiate this deal.

16:59You know, it seems as if he did not endear himself to the Russians. He's seen as too pro-Ukrainian. And so now they brought in Steve Whitcoff, who was an old friend of Trump's from the New York real estate world. You can read their origin story. It goes back to once in the 80s, Trump forgot his wallet and Steve Whitcoff bought him a sandwich. And that's how they got to know each other. Cute. Fast forward, Whitcoff was initially appointed as the envoy for the Gaza conflict. He's also been their point person talking to Russia. And now, apparently, as if that wasn't enough, he's negotiating with Iran on their nuclear program.

17:47So, you know, one guy without any foreign policy experience is involved in negotiating three major conflicts that would be a major challenge even for the most experienced diplomats. So the thing about Whitcoff is that, you know, not only does he have no foreign policy experience, but when you listen to him talk particularly about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he often seems to just be sort of delivering Russian talking points, which is, you know, somewhat problematic from somebody who's expected to be the, you know, the one mediating the end of this conflict. Well, tell us how it's gone so far, be it Trump, be it Rubio, be it Whitcoff at the table.

18:27How have negotiations gone in the hundred plus days since Donald Trump reentered the White House? Yeah, well, there was a breakthrough of sorts a few days ago. They finally signed this long awaited minerals deal. This basically gives the U.S. sort of a future financial stake in Ukraine's mineral wealth. And they're thought to have potentially quite a bit of mineral wealth. It's not really clear how much. As far as possible outcomes, this was kind of a win-win for the U.S. and Ukraine. But, you know, that's also sort of a side issue. What we really care about is what's going to end this war, right?

19:06On that front, there's been less progress. They got Ukrainians to agree to, in principle, to a 30-day ceasefire. The Russians have not agreed to that. The Russians this week are proposing like a three-day ceasefire around May 9th, which is Victory Day, the day they celebrate the Allied victory in World War II. It's a huge holiday in Russia, like a big, important day for the Putin government. Putin is proposing a three-day ceasefire around that. The Ukrainians are saying, no, like we want a real ceasefire. And they're continuing to fire drones at Moscow, which is making people in Russia very nervous.

19:50So, you know, things—right now there's not a lot of progress towards an actual ceasefire that's going to end this war. And, you know, I think it goes back to the point that, you know, this isn't just a conflict over land. It comes down to, you know, Ukraine wants real security guarantees that can assure them that what they're afraid of is that they'll agree to a ceasefire. And a year later, the Russians will just regroup and come back and try for the whole country again. And the Russians want to ensure that, you know, from their point of view, they don't want basically a NATO beachhead, you know, U.S.-European, you know, military fortress right on their border.

20:40And, like, these are sort of irreconcilable positions at the moment. There may be a way to reconcile them. I'm not saying it's hopeless and I'm not saying it's not worth testing the waters and trying to negotiate them. But it's going to take time and it's going to take engagement. No one knows why President Trump says the things he says, but one could potentially assume that, you know, he thought he could get a deal in this war because of his significantly cozier relationship with Vladimir Putin compared to, say, his predecessor, Joe Biden. But now he's posting stuff like, I am not happy with the Russian strikes on Kiev.

21:23Not necessary and very bad timing. Vladimir, stop. 5 ,000 soldiers a week are dying. Let's get the peace deal done. A post that had, as far as we can tell, not much of an effect on Putin or the Russian effort. What happened to the previously cozy relationship between these two? I think they had an idea that if they came in and they put enough pressure on Ukraine, that that would be a way of sort of delivering an end to this war. They have not been as willing to put pressure on Russia. Of course, in fairness, the U.S. has a lot less leverage over Russia than it does over Ukraine. But I think that's where the disconnect has happened.

22:06It's sort of been a rude awakening, the fact that they've come to the realization that Russia is not actually interested in ending this war, or at least not interested in ending this war on terms that even Trump finds acceptable. Is the rockiness with Putin helping the previously obviously very rocky relationship with Zelensky? Things seem to have gotten back on track somewhat with Trump and Zelensky. I mean, it's not—I don't think it's ever exactly going to be a warm, cordial relationship, but they had that meeting at the Vatican. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky meeting face-to-face inside St.

22:51Peter's Basilica. Look at that picture. Incredible to see these two leaders face-to-face trying to talk about an end to the war in Ukraine. Another sort of perhaps promising sign for the Ukrainians, there was a story this week that the U.S. is sending another Patriot battery from the Middle East to Ukraine. They're sending old F-16 parts to Ukraine for them to use in their fighter jets. So, you know, the nightmare scenario, which it looked like was coming to pass after the overall office meeting, which is that the U.S. just completely washes its hands of the whole thing and, like, cuts off all support, that does not seem to be coming to pass right now, at least.

23:39So where do we see this going in the coming weeks and months? Is this going to work in Russia's favor that we can't reach a conclusion here? Is it going to work in Ukraine's favor? Do we have no idea? You know, I think the smart money is on the conflict continuing. It's a war of attrition, and that means it's who can be exhausted first, who's going to be able to stay in this fight for longest, who's going to be able to resource their fight for longest. And it's a marathon, and it's a slugfest, and it's going to take a long time. And these sides put their red lines out. They say what they believe is unacceptable.

24:14But that can change. You know, that can change in a hurry.

24:20Is part of the problem here that there just isn't the sufficient amount of focus on this conflict? You're talking about, you know, you got the president, who knows what it is, du jour, you know, trying to start a war with California over tariffs on film. You've got Secretary Rubio wearing four hats. You've got Whitcoff charged with solving the Middle East, but also Ukraine, Russia. I mean, is there a general lack of seriousness from this administration? You know, this would be tough for anyone. You know, it's not as if the previous administration was making that much progress either. But yeah, I mean, it doesn't—we're not getting signals like they're really doing a full court press to get this negotiated.

25:19Josh Keating, he goes by Joshua at Vox.com. Devin Schwartz made our show today. Jolie Myers edited. Laura Bullard fact-checked. Patrick Boyd and Andrea Christensdottir mixed. It's Today Explained.

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