The gas price vote

0:00Astead Herndon:If there's anything we've heard about this entire summer, no matter where we go or who we talk to, it's about gas prices. Gas is... don't even get me started on gas. I don't even want to fill my gas tank no more. Okay, you see where the country at now? Gas about$4 a gallon, you know? If you have one issue you want politicians to focus on, what would it be? Gas prices. Gas prices. Gas prices. It's bad. Gas prices are way up since the U.S. launched its war with Iran. But does a little pain at the pump actually affect how people vote? And what if gas is still$4 come November? Is that game over for Donald Trump and the Republicans?

0:38Astead Herndon:That's this week on America Actually. Let's dig in.

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1:30Hey, it's Sue Bird. This week on Bird's Eye View, I'm joined by Kayla McBride. We get into her unstoppable three-point game and what getting Nafisa Collier back means for the Lynx playoff run. Plus, I take a look at why Kelsey Plum landed in Phoenix at the trade deadline. Check out Bird's Eye View on YouTube and your favorite podcast app.

1:50Astead Herndon:So for the last six months, people all across the country have talked to us a ton about gas prices. But it's been unclear, at least to this point, who they blame for the higher prices and whether the higher prices are going to affect their vote in the November midterm elections. The gasoline, the oil, will go down rapidly as soon as the war is over. President Trump has asked the American public to be patient with higher gas prices and has argued that they will go down as soon as the war with Iran is over, whenever that is. But the numbers will tell you the American people's patience is growing thin with this administration.

2:25Astead Herndon:The average price of gas has hovered around$4 since the spring and summer. And that's up a full dollar from where gas prices were just this February, before the war with Iran started. But do gas prices actually affect how people vote in the November midterms? We went to an important congressional district in Pennsylvania to find out. I want to show you something. Look at these gas prices. They're ridiculous. And they just keep going up. That's not good. Later in the show, we talk to a presidential historian who tells us how much gas prices have mattered in elections in the past and puts our current moment into context.

3:02Astead Herndon:We're on our way to Allentown, Pennsylvania, which is the biggest city in Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district. Now, Pennsylvania 7th is one of the most competitive districts in the country. and it's in a region of the state, eastern Pennsylvania, that has several critical congressional districts when it comes to who's going to control the House in November. So why not go to some gas stations in Allentown and ask people how much are gas prices affecting their wallet and how much will it affect who they vote for in November? Let's go. Now, we've heard a lot of people talking about gas prices this summer.

3:41Astead Herndon:Have those been on your radar? Like, on a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rate how much they've affected your wallet this summer? A lot. I don't drive as much. Now, when we think about gas prices, like, who do you blame for it going up so much? I blame this government for everything. You blame the president. I blame the president because he indicated to us he's going to drop all these costs. I know it can't happen overnight, but when is it going to happen? It's outrageous. Did you vote for him to gas? Yes, I did. And did you vote for him on the premise that stuff like gas would be lower? I voted for him with his promises to American people.

4:25Mm-hmm. And I think he's let us down.

4:28Astead Herndon:Which would you say is the biggest broken promise for you? Like, what gives you the sense of letdown? Uh... Is it the prices? The prices, the controlling of the prices... Got it. ...has skyrocketed. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. And I just feel it's not fair to those retired people and younger people. We can't survive. Tell me how it's affected your life. Well, vacation-wise, being retired, the wife and I, we'd like to go on vacation. Not expensive ones, but the budget for that, I have to take away from utility bills, oil bills, medical bills. I have to just take away. My main objective is roof over our head, pay our bills, and then what's left.

5:11But there's hardly anything left, if anything left.

5:14Astead Herndon:My last question would be, like, you mentioned Trump. Now, does this affect how you think about Republicans going forward? Like, we have a midterm election coming up. We have other things. Or do you think this is just the father of the people in there right now? I really don't know which way to go or what to do. Uh-huh. You feel torn. Who is telling the truth? Uh-huh. And who is going to represent us and do something about it? Talk is cheap. Uh-huh. But let's do something about it. What would be the number one thing you would want either party to do? Price control. Prices. Yes. Got it. Are you someone who votes?

5:45Astead Herndon:Yes, I do vote. Do things like gas prices affect how you think about who you're going to vote for? I mean, at the end of the day, I mean, I'm not driving to the White House, but gas prices is something that needs to be reflected on because it's a daily essential in everybody's lives. Yeah. Do you mind if they film? No, not at all. Great. When you think about the reasons why they've gone up, is there anybody that you blame for the rise in gas prices? Well, we all know it's the crisis in the Middle East. We know that. If you could rate what's at the top of your priority list when you make a choice between D and R, as someone who says they're in the middle, what is at the height of what helps you make that decision?

6:28Astead Herndon:What's the top of your priority list? The economy, basically. Yes. And what does that mean to you? Like, housing, gas? like what piece of the economy? Because that's a big thing. Well, that is all. It's all the above. It's all the above. It's all the above. When we say gas prices, what's the first thing that comes to your mind? You say gas prices, I mean, essential. We all drive. We don't have public transportation in this area, so we're all subjected to the price of what it's going to be. And this summer, it's moved a lot. Has it changed how you kind of go about your life or work because gas prices have gone up?

6:59I would say if the situations were different and we actually had like public transportation, it probably would. But since I have to commute to work every single day, I have to pay my bills. I have to pay the gas. You have no other option? I have no other option. Is there anyone we blame for the rise of gas prices? I think it's a pretty obvious answer to that. You tell me. I mean, look at the way that things have gone since February. I think you can make a contrast to how things went back in 2022 when we went to, well, we didn't go to war with Ukraine, but when Ukraine got attacked by Russia.

7:31Astead Herndon:Yeah, the last time we saw that kind of big gas prices. See a direct correlation, yeah. So how should we think about this? President Trump told us he was going to lower gas prices. He told us he was going to lower grocery bills. And here we are with higher gas like a year or so in. Like, I don't know if you're someone who voted for him or supported him, but I'm like, what should we think about that contradiction? Well, he's a complete fraud. You know what I mean? You're like, that's how you think about it. Yeah, I mean, it's obvious. I mean, I'm not going to sit here and say that. I mean, I think that we have President Trump as a direct result of some of the past administrations and just sheer unhappiness with the way that things are going or the way that things went.

8:05And I think that now President Trump is a consequence of maybe being OK with status quo for too long. But I think it's quite obvious now at this point that, I mean, the jig is up and that we're clearly not being represented by somebody who has our best interests.

8:24Astead Herndon:The last thing I would say is when you look ahead, is there anything, is there like, do you think Democrats help things like gas prices? Like, do you have any confidence in anybody in the landscape to say, hey, if this person was in office, things would be different? I would say it depends who their funding is coming from. That's the biggest thing for you. I don't think it matters if they're a Democrat or Republican, if they're taking money from lobbies like AIPAC. Got to wonder, you know, the party doesn't seem to matter. It's like, you know, who is their campaign financing coming from? Is it a real grassroots, you know, campaign where they're actually getting donations from people rather than big packs, big corporations?

8:59Astead Herndon:Rather than looking at D or R, you're looking at where does your money come from and are you going to fight for little guys? 100%. Are you from Allentown? Are you from around here? Yes, Allentown. I get a lot of it right now is because of the war. Yeah. But I just saw this morning on the news that oil prices have gone down. Mm-hmm. So that's a good sign. Yeah. It is being linked to the war. Now, is that something that you're willing to pay a higher price for the cost of what, you know, the president saying is trying to make some people say? Yes, because our president is actually doing something about Iran.

9:32He's not, you know, he's not sugarcoating it. It's something we need to do. And in the long run, it's going to be better for everybody.

9:42Astead Herndon:And I just want to be clear. And that's something you're willing to pay a higher gas price for? Yes. Does that have a timeline? Does that willingness run out at any point? If those prices are still high come the end of the summer, end of the year, like, will you feel the same? Yes, because I feel, you know, um... as long as it takes, we need to... we need to make sure Iran doesn't make a nuclear bomb or anything like that. You know, we have to look out for America, and this president's doing that. Mm, okay. It's been going up all summer. Has it changed the way you go about your job or your life?

10:14Astead Herndon:How you all get around? It does, it does, it does. Tell me how. It does, because I drive, I do deliveries for a living. And I got to put plus on my other vehicle. And that's more expensive,$5, look at that. And you're saying because you have to put the plus in the vehicle, and as that has gone up, it's changed how you have to drive around? Yeah, yeah, I really don't go nowhere. Who do you blame for those higher prices? The government.

10:41Astead Herndon:So we just finished talking to people in gas stations in Allentown, Pennsylvania. the central seat of Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district. And we heard everything. A universal agreement that gas prices are too high and it's affecting folks' lives, but also a blame centrally on the president, even though we heard a couple people who defend him. But let's put this all into context and understand how gas prices affect this November election and 2028 by talking to economist and the historian Julian Zelizer. We're going to do that back in New York, though. Let's do it.

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13:50Hi, everybody. It's Megan Rapinoe. I've been thinking a lot about this one question I've been asked over and over. A question about the choices I've made, the colors of my hair, the things in the world I've spoken about, and the things that I haven't. I've heard this question asked so many different ways, but it always came down to, why are you like this? And as you know, there's no simple answer, because people are not simple. We're messy and complicated and contradictory and layered. So on my new show, I'm sitting down with the ultimate disruptors, the athletes, the artists, the activists, and the architects of our culture who looked at the way things were and asked, why do we do it like this?

14:34And can we do it differently? My hope is to give us a little more space to that question and to the person on the other side of the mic, not to tell us their answer or read from their script, but to take us on their journey. Check out my new show, Why Are You Like This? on YouTube or listen in your favorite podcast app. New episodes drop every Thursday.

14:57Dr.

14:57Astead Herndon:Julian Zelizer, thank you for joining us. We appreciate your time. How are you? It's a pleasure to be with you. I'm doing well. I wanted to talk to you because we were just in Pennsylvania talking to people about gas prices and how it affects their vote. And I know you're someone who has looked at that historically, how gas prices impact presidencies. And even more recently on your sub stack where you wrote about why gas prices hit different. A good topic for us today. I wanted to start by looking backwards, though. Like, when did the price of gas become such a political weapon in America? Does this date all the way back to the Model T?

15:34No, it really dates to the 1970s. That's when the United States will have two energy crises in 1973 and 1979. And the price of gas becomes a huge political issue for Americans. It affects presidents. It affects Congress. And it becomes a manifestation in that decade of the problems facing the country. So I think that's when we start to realize we don't have unlimited resources and it's going to be a political problem.

16:03Astead Herndon:Can you go in more detail about that? Like for those unfamiliar, what happened in the 70s to make it so clear to Americans, oh, this party might not last forever? Well, production of oil here peaks in the late 1960s, early 1970s. And then in 1973, OPEC, which is the cartel of oil producing countries in the Middle East, imposes an embargo on the U.S. because the United States had supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War. And as a result of the embargo, prices go up and supplies go down. And that's when Americans start to face gas lines. They start to face different kinds of rations and politicians need to deal with this.

16:45And then in 1979, we have another round of this after the Iranian revolution. And that leads to even bigger gas lines and more stringent rations and government mandates in 79. And many people think it really helped bring down Jimmy Carter's presidency.

17:02Astead Herndon:Yeah, I was going to ask that. Should we think about Jimmy Carter as the first president whose election laws can be blamed on gas prices? Yeah, I mean, it could have been Richard Nixon, but other things brought him down in 1974. Although it was certainly part of the problem. But Carter, yes. I mean, Carter in 1979, it's in the summer of 79, is really reeling from what Americans experience. And it's not simply gas prices. It's waiting in line for gas. It's hearing that you could only buy gas on certain days. It's reading stories about people stealing gas and violent clashes occurring over getting this commodity.

17:39And so there's a lot of things that go into the mix with Carter, the hostages in Iran. But certainly his difficulty dealing with this fundamental is a big part of what happens in 1980 when Reagan wins the presidency.

17:54Astead Herndon:Important. I want to ask also, though, about what looms over this, because, of course, presidents have little control over the global price of oil, yet they are blamed for it seemingly every time. Since you're tracking kind of history of this issue, how have politicians and particularly presidents dealt with that reality, considering the price of the pump is so important to their political futures while not always in their control? Well, in the 70s, they tried with legislation. Jimmy Carter pushes legislation that deals with energy, but it's limited in its success. Americans want a lot of oil and it was hard to get them to conserve.

18:31He put solar panels on the White House.

18:33Astead Herndon:Yeah. There's really not much presidents can do. We have the strategic reserves. And other than that, I think presidents just wait it out and hope the timing works in their favor and the gas prices go down again. Is there an example of a president who beat the gas prices trap? I want to ask kind of a counterintuitive question. Like, do we have any example of someone successfully convincing the country, hey, look away from the price of the pump? No, I think we have presidents who say, just look away for a little while. And when reelection comes around again, they're doing better. Even President George W.

19:10Bush struggled with some of this after 9-11 and after the war started. But in the end, he doesn't make an announcement about it so much as focus on other issues such as national security. And now we see how prices fluctuate. So you just wait for those moments.