Trump meets with Europe

0:01The first time Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky met President Trump in the White House, it didn't go well. During the war, everybody has problems, even you. But you have nice ocean and don't feel now, but you will feel it in the future. God bless. You don't know that. God bless. God bless. You will not have a war. Don't tell us what we're going to feel. Today, Zelensky visits again. This time, seven European leaders are coming too. Why the show of force? They're not coming here tomorrow to keep Zelensky from being bullied. Oh, okay. Over the course of just another manic Monday at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, President Trump will meet Zelensky and company to try to settle Russia's war in Ukraine.

0:41And on Today Explained from Vox, we're going to tell you what to keep an eye on. J.D. Vance. Keep an eye on J.D. Vance.

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1:52Today Explained

2:02President Trump went into his Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin on Friday saying he wanted a ceasefire. But when that meeting ended a few hours later, he changed his mind. To find out why, we called Julia Yoffe. She's a founding partner of Puck. She's a longtime Russia hand, and she's author of the book Motherland about Russian women. Julia, what ended up happening at that meeting? I think what ended up happening is that for all of Donald Trump's insistence that he is the dealmaker-in-chief, he was going in against a much savvier, much more seasoned opponent. The current administration, which, as everyone knows, is making, in my opinion, quite energetic and sincere efforts to stop hostilities, stop the crisis.

2:55And he was going in thinking, oh, we're kind of friends. We get each other. We get along. There's a good respect level on both sides. And I think, you know, something's going to come of it. I notice he's bringing a lot of business people from Russia. Whereas Vladimir Putin certainly does not see Donald Trump that way. And there was basically a bait and switch. I think Vladimir Putin told him, look, you can get a ceasefire now, but those things fall apart all the time. not mentioning, of course, that usually it's Russia violating the many ceasefires that over the last 11 years have been implemented in Ukraine since Russia first invaded in 2014, and said, look, we could get a much bigger peace deal, bigger deal, end the whole war, big, big peace deal.

3:46And I think, I'm guessing that Donald Trump fell for the much shinier object, not realizing that the Russians aren't just going to agree to it like that with a snap of the fingers. They love getting in the weeds. They love dragging things out diplomatically. So I don't know that Donald Trump realizes that this is going to take a long, long time and that he gave Putin kind of exactly what he wanted, which is a legitimization of his maximalist demands, a walking away from a ceasefire that would freeze Russia's momentum on the front and give Ukraine some time to breathe and regroup and allow its citizens to stop being killed in their homes, at least temporarily.

4:36in favor of this receding horizon, which was the thing that Donald Trump got so frustrated to begin with. Let's go toward the outlines of the deal. So Trump goes in saying, we want a ceasefire. He comes out saying, we don't want a ceasefire, which, as you point out, is the same thing that Putin has said. No, no, you don't need a ceasefire. What is on the table here? What seems is on the table is Ukraine having to give up control of the Donetsk and Luhansk territories, which Russia has, by the way, not been able to capture militarily, despite trying to actively since 2014. In exchange, Russia would give up the little pieces of the Sumer and Kharkiv regions that it holds.

5:24apparently on the table is formal U.S. recognition of Crimea as Russian and a lifting of some at least U.S. sanctions and some kind of security guarantee for Ukraine that doesn't involve NATO membership. So kind of a forswearing of NATO membership for Ukraine in exchange for some kind of security guarantee. From the reporting I've seen, it seems that on the security guarantee, there's already kind of a poison pill put in place that the Russians told the Americans that they want China and Belarus and their own allies as part of as some of the parties guaranteeing Ukraine security. And you can just imagine that if they're two of the guarantors of Ukraine's security and Ukraine says, hey, we were just attacked by Russia and China and Belarus have veto power and say, no, you weren't.

6:30And therefore, the collective defense that's promised in these security guarantees doesn't kick in. It's not much of a security guarantee at all.

6:44I want to talk about the way the administration is framing this. So Marco Rubio goes on ABC's This Week on Sunday, and he says progress was made, but he doesn't give any detail. Both sides are going to have to give and both sides should expect to get something from this. Steve Witkoff on CNN more or less said the same. We made so much progress at this meeting with regard to all the other ingredients necessary for a peace deal that President Trump pivoted to that place. Do we have a sense of what the administration means when it says progress? It is progress in the sense that they're talking. And it's progress in the sense that it's not just Ukraine and Russia are fighting, nobody's coming to the table, and Putin and Zelensky are playing this game vis-a-vis Trump of trying to show Trump that the other guy's the problem, The other guy's the impediment to peace.

7:39You've now been in office for five months and five days. Why have you not been able to end the Ukraine war? Because it's more difficult than people would have any idea. Vladimir Putin has been more difficult. Frankly, I had some problems with Zelensky. You may have read about him. And Trump being frustrated with Putin and threatening him with sanctions. I don't have to say there will be very severe consequences. So it's progress from that. They're at least talking about something more productive in the sense that they're talking about some kind of actual peace settlement and the parameters of it.

8:16The question is, does it actually lead to an end in the fighting and a kind of durable and just peace? Or will Ukraine be sold down the river? And this is obviously a thing that Ukraine was deeply concerned about. The big controversy over the summit was that Zelensky was not there. And then, and then kind of came as a surprise. We hear that Zelensky will come to D.C. He will bring a handful, but a significant handful of European leaders with him. We're talking before he and Trump meet this afternoon. But what do you think Zelensky is coming to Washington for? I think Zelensky is coming to Washington to make sure that he has heard that Ukraine's interests are taken into account.

9:07Because from the very beginning, from the fall and winter of 2021-2022, Putin has been insisting that Ukraine does not need to be at the table. That the two big guys, Russia and the U.S., can just negotiate over Ukraine's head, carve things up, and settle it between the two of them. Right. Because Russia does not see Ukraine as a serious country. It sees it as a kind of vassal of the U.S. that actually should be part of Russia. That now I think Zelensky is coming to Washington to make sure that he's heard, to make sure that Putin and Trump don't decide something about Ukraine without Ukraine, without hearing that the security guarantees need to be real, without this kind of poison pill, to make sure that this territory isn't just given away for nothing.

10:09Because remember, you know, he is the president of Ukraine, and he is responsible to the Ukrainian people. And we've seen what happens in territories that Russia captures from Ukraine. People are disappeared, tortured, killed. these places become, you know, that Russian government sends in its vast repressive apparatus and also its corruption. These are not pleasant places for people to live once Russia takes over. And, you know, in ceding control of these territories, they're also leaving their own people behind. I think that's also very important to understand. At the end of the day, do you think the summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska was a win for Russia, a win for Trump?

11:04Who came out of that the victor? The Russian leader, much like the American president, sees things as a zero-sum game. And so if one side is winning, then the other side must be losing. And Friday's summit in Anchorage was definitely a win for Putin. I mean, it's one thing to invite him and welcome him onto American soil. It's another to see it, to see the Russian presidential jet land, to see uniformed American troops literally on their hands and knees rolling out a red carpet for a man who has an ICC warrant out for his arrest for war crimes. OK, it's another thing for Trump to talk about Putin glowingly.

11:55It's another for him to clap for him as he stands there and waits on the red carpet. Then at the press conference, Putin spoke first, which apparently took White House staff and the press that was there by surprise. And this was very much like Putin spoke first because the boss speaks first. It was a very weird moment. And he didn't give Trump what he wanted. He was able to trick him onto his own side and get him to take his position without Trump getting much of anything. I think it was, frankly, pretty embarrassing. And given the coverage of it on Russian state media and in loyalist telegram channels, I think the Russians certainly see it as a win for Vladimir Putin.

12:48It's also an unforced error. Trump didn't have to do this. He didn't have to invite Putin. He didn't have to set the expectations this high. I mean, Putin himself has warned him. He said when Trump was talking about how disappointed he was in Putin, Putin offered a kind of offhand remark without naming Trump. He said, you know, disappointment comes from inflated expectations. This was a failure of Trump's own making. It was completely unforced and unprovoked, and it didn't have to be this way. Julia Yoffe of Puck. Her book is Motherland. Thanks, Julia. Thank you, Noelle. Coming up, Europe sends its A-team to Washington.

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17:41This is Today Explained. I'm Oliver Carroll. I'm the Kiev correspondent for The Economist. All right. So Volodymyr Zelensky is in Washington today. You are in Kiev where he normally is. What's it like in Kiev right now? Is everyone talking about this? So, you know, nearly four years of war has put the population into a certain rhythm. And it's been heightened by the ups and downs of Trump. And that rhythm is basically what I would call survival. the most sort of popular psychologist in these parts is Viktor Frankl a famous Holocaust survivor who whose basic treaties was about focusing on on the day not looking too far ahead and not being too despondent about the possibilities so in Kiev right now that there is a real worry it took a little while to filter through but at the same time you know this war has been going on for nearly four years.

18:37And there is a sense among the population and among the politicians that it can't go on for much longer. Obviously, they want a peace on reasonable terms. But they're seeing, you know, the outlines of something, although at the moment, a lot of the most recent news goes against Ukraine's interest. I was talking to a contact yesterday and he talked about the idea of this being like the film Speed. So everything is very dynamic. There is a sense things are speeding up, but the worry is that the bus has gone out of control.

19:13All right. So we hear the news that Zelensky is coming to D.C. And then we hear that like half of the important people in Europe are also coming with him. Who else is going to be in Washington this week? Right. So this is perhaps the most surprising thing is that, you know, after being invited to Washington, the thing in everyone's memory is what happened in February when essentially Volodymyr Zelensky was attacked left, right and center. And he obviously took the bait to a certain extent. But there is a real desire to avoid that kind of scene. You're not in a good position. You don't have the cards right now.

19:58With us, you start having cards. I'm not playing cards. I'm very serious, Mr. President. You're playing cards. You're gambling with the lives of millions of people. You're gambling with World War III. You're gambling with World War III. And what you did, they should have. Have you said thank you once this entire meeting? No, in this entire meeting, have you said thank you? Even today. So what's happening is he's coming with several other European leaders from the European Commission, President Ursula von der Leyen, to the head of NATO, Mark Reuter, to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Macron, Maloney.

20:39It really is the list of everyone who has been supporting Ukraine. So it is to a certain extent to make sure that that kind of visual, that optic in which only Vladimir Putin wins, isn't repeated. But at the same time, you know, it is a show of European muscle. The bottom line is that Europe, wider Europe, has in fact provided far more support to Ukraine than the US. In fact, in early 2025, Europe had overtaken the U.S. in military aid contributions alone. And that isn't including, of course, the macroeconomic and the humanitarian aid. And though the U.S. is taking a lead in making some of the decisions and some of the calls on what will happen in Ukraine and in Europe, it's ultimately Europe which will be funding the bill.

21:26Now, one thing that has come up time and again throughout this war is that the United States is separated from Russia by a nice ocean and that much of Europe is in fact not. So tell me, in addition to funding the war, what is at stake for Europe as Russia, you know, continues this war in Ukraine? I mean, obviously, the narrative of recent days has been, of course, that Alaska is very close to Russia. But let's put that aside. Recent years, in fact, the last decade or so, maybe. Indeed, indeed. They're our next-door neighbors, and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska. And I can see Russia from my house.

22:10I mean, you know, of course this is a problem on Europe's doorstep. And this is a problem in the first instance, which is threatening the European post-Cold War order. and clearly the immediate threats to security will be felt by the countries with immediately neighboring Ukraine and it's no coincidence that these states have been the ones leading the charge to arm and defend Ukraine from the start. Poland, the Baltic states and so on. Now there is a question as to whether you know the Russians are in fact serious about a conflict with NATO in the long term. Right at the moment, they wouldn't really stand a chance.

22:52But it seems quite clear that five or six or seven years down the line, you know, the possibility of some kind of hybrid threat on the eastern flanks of Europe and NATO, that's a real possibility. So the fear is that even if the invasion, the war in Ukraine is settled, then Putin will be able to redirect his energies after all the lessons and all the efficiencies which he will have gained from this pretty bloody and tragic war, and then start to chip away at European defences. That's the fear. How realistic it is, I mean, I think probably we'll only be able to see in the future whether it will be a strategy to essentially deflect the West's economic attention when perhaps Russia will be looking at different opportunities in the Middle East and so on and so forth.

23:47We don't know. But it's certainly a clear possibility. Does Europe, coming into these meetings today, does Europe trust the United States as an ally? We have done quite a few things in the last eight months that might be viewed as breeding or engendering mistrust. Where does the trust stand right now? Well, yeah, I think it really depends who in Europe you're speaking to. I mean, as far as the Brits are concerned, well, the policy is to engage wherever they can. And we still believe our security cooperation is the closest in the world. And that's certainly true on security, intelligence, contacts and so on.

24:29It's too close a relationship and it's too integrated a relationship not to try and embrace. And that's certainly the policy. And it's been shown to have some success. I mean, that view is not universal across Europe. There's a real sense of trepidation that the sort of policy approach, and it isn't a fragmented policy approach of the US White House, to put it mildly, some would say chaotic and completely absent. I'm trying to be politically correct here. But there is a sense that, you know, the Americans under the Trump administration, these aren't allies that we can really rely on. And of course, at the end of the day, there are real lives at stake here in Ukraine fighting a defensive war.

25:18When you ask Ukrainians what they make of President Trump saying, you know, there are more meetings to come and the Kremlin saying, look, we have red lines and we simply will not back down. And Ukraine saying, well, guess what? Neither will we. Are people there hopeful? Civilians, are they hopeful that this is coming to an end anytime soon? I mean, what is clear is the country is playing in different gears. There is one part of the country which is very committed to the war effort and without it, the war effort would stop. There are other parts of the country which are less committed and more ready to make concessions.

25:59What's cleared in general is that Mr. Zelensky is in a very difficult situation. if he agrees to everything that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin appear to have scribbled down the back of a cigarette box he will provoke a revolution or at least very fierce protests he knows that. The Ukrainians will not be ready and will not accept in broad I would say 80-90 % giving more Ukrainian territory without a very clear understanding of how that means the war would stop. So he has this on the one side, but at the same time, you know, this is a man under extreme pressure. This is probably the nearest we've been to a peace deal since the beginning of the war and the Istanbul process.

26:47And certainly I understand that those people who are having contacts with the Russian side right now believe that, you know, these are the strongest signals the Russians have been sending. That now might be a good time to sort of try and find some points of interaction. So he has this sense that, you know, it might only be this window opportunity. It's open right now. It might not be open for long. And so this piece, if that is what it is, you know, it might need to be seized right now. So it's a really tight, tight line he has to walk.

27:28Oliver Carroll is Kiev correspondent for leading magazine The Economist. Denise Guerra and Rebecca Ibarra produced today's show. Amina El-Sadi is our editor. Laura Bullard and Avishai Artsy checked the facts. Andrea Kristen's daughter is our only engineer. Patrick Boyd is here too. I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained.

28:03Thank you.