Trump's Nobel Peace Prize

0:00Israel's defense minister announced plans yesterday to move displaced Palestinians into a quote, humanitarian city on the ruins of Rafa. This sounded to a lot of people like plans to create an internment camp. The war goes on. Five Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza today. The IDF continues to fire on Palestinians who are just trying to get food. To all of this, add another casualty. Irony. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had dinner at the White House last night and made this startling gesture. So I want to present to you, Mr. President, the letter I sent to the Nobel Prize Committee.

0:41It's nominating you for the Peace Prize, which is well-deserved. And you should get it. Thank you very much. This I didn't know. Wow. Coming up on Today Explained, President Trump badly wants the Nobel Peace Prize, and he thinks getting a ceasefire in Gaza will land him one.

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2:03The golden age of America begins right now. On Today Explained. I'm Noelle King alongside John Hudson. He's a national security reporter for The Washington Post. John, President Trump over the past 48 hours has been saying that a ceasefire deal in Gaza is close. Why do you think he's saying that? He's saying that because the United States is making another go at it. They have put together a ceasefire proposal that the Israelis have agreed to. Hamas has a number of objections to it. So then the Qataris and the Egyptians, the interlocutors, have worked on a bridging proposal to put it closer to something that Hamas might agree to.

2:48This deal would be a 60-day ceasefire. During that 60-day period, they would provide a sort of calm in which they'd be able to negotiate an end of the war. It's also a time when they would release approximately 50 Israeli hostages, of which 20 are believed to be alive, 30 of them dead, but they would deliver the bodies. The sticking point has always really been whether or not this would be a permanent end to the war. Hamas does not want to give up its remaining hostages, which is pretty much its only form of leverage. if it is not going to result in a permanent end to the war. The Israelis have always wanted to hold out an option to continue to resume military action.

3:40The Israelis would like an agreement with which Hamas would agree to leave Gaza. And it's always been the firm desire of Hamas leaders to remain in Gaza, even if it means that they will lose their lives. What you just laid out has been the case for a while now. The sticking points have been the same for a while now. What is new in July of 2025? What's new is that there are just new levels of desperation, both for Hamas and Palestinians who are in Gaza. The amount of food getting into Gaza is far insufficient. to meet people's daily needs. We in Gaza have no flour every day. For 24 hours, they tell us there are trucks coming, and we come and find nothing.

4:38We eat the sand. We have no food. We have no food.

4:45There's malnourishment. There are children's hair thinning out. In some cases, their teeth are falling out. they're not getting enough food, water and medicine.

5:02I'm waiting for the crossings to open so I can be treated abroad, she says. There, if you look at Hamas's, you know, principal backer, Iran, it has had its proxy forces decimated. Hezbollah is a shell of itself in Lebanon. The Houthis have come under attack by both the Israelis and the United States. And the leadership of Hamas has been decimated. The hope among the Trump administration is that the main factor that has changed is that Hamas is in a much weaker place. And so it may make concessions that it wasn't willing to make before.

5:49You know, from the skeptics that I've talked to, Arab diplomats who were working on this issue for nearly two years has been that, well, that could be the case. It may also be the case that Hamas has long ago decided that this cause, this mission that they are on, is more important than any other material conditions and setbacks that they're facing. And they've long ago prepared to die in Gaza, if that's what they have to do. All right. So we have this meeting between Trump and Netanyahu in D.C., a recognition maybe that things in this war are just getting worse and worse and worse. We also have meetings in Qatar.

6:36What's happening in Qatar and what is the United States role there? Yes. In Qatar, you have what's called proximity talks between the Israelis and Hamas, with which they're often in the same hotel but in different rooms. And you have interlocutors passing messages back and forth and trying to come up with some sort of an agreement. A glimmer of hope for those on both sides of the conflict as indirect negotiations on a potential ceasefire get underway in Doha. Hamas made demands about where the Israeli troops will redeploy to, and also they asked for guarantees about a non-return to fighting at the end of the initial 60-day period.

7:23Some of the amendments being sought by the militant group have already been dismissed by the Israeli prime minister as unacceptable to Israel. The White House announced yesterday that Steve Whitcoff, President Trump's top envoy, plans to travel to Qatar to help push along talks. The thinking is that if someone as senior as Whitcoff is going to travel there, that this must be particularly important and that there could be a place for a breakthrough. Witkoff may actually be the president's only true, sincere friend. They have known each other for many years. You know, Witkoff was the first person that Trump relied on for negotiating the first ceasefire that was achieved right, you know, just hours before Trump took office that was done in part with the Biden administration.

8:27And that was what gave Trump so much confidence in Witkoff and Witkoff's abilities. Hamas has to go. They've got to leave. And we're going to, the negotiation will be around that. I would say physically, that's correct. Netanyahu didn't just come into town to have dinner with President Trump. He's going to be here for a couple days in Washington. What else are you watching for on this trip? If there is some sort of new phrasing or some sort of new way that the Trump administration is going to push the Israelis to form a more concrete promise that when they start negotiations, that this new deal is not going to end how others have failed, which is you start negotiations.

9:18We have breaking news for you coming out of the Middle East. Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire and hostage deal after 15 months of war. Hamas begins to release hostages. Three women have just been released by Hamas after nearly 16 months in captivity. So hopefully you can hear me. There is a lot of music here. There are celebrations going on here in Tel Aviv. And then at some point the Israelis resume military hostilities. Israel's military says it is targeting Hamas with new airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. Hamas says it means the ceasefire is over. That's essentially the dynamic that Hamas wants to prevent from happening.

10:01And I think without that, without more concrete promises, it's unlikely that any deal is going to happen. Hmm. It sounds like a joke, but a ceasefire in Gaza would be an enormous achievement and President Trump would take the credit. Do you think he could get that Nobel Peace Prize? You know, it certainly – if he were to successfully wind down this war, it certainly would be a significant achievement. You know, whether or not the Nobel Committee would award it to someone like Trump I think is a real question. And I think it's also a big question of whether or not they'd be willing to afford it to the United States, which has been a key actor in sending weapons and support to Israel.

11:02But you've also had people with less than savory reputations win Nobel Peace Prizes in the past as well. So it's certainly a long-held goal of the president, but anyone who successfully ends this war would likely be under consideration. But given that the killing continues and the violence has not subsided, it's too early to start thinking about, I think, nominations or acceptance speeches. John, thanks so much for your time. Yeah, appreciate you guys. John Hudson is a national security reporter for The Washington Post.

11:55Coming up next, Trump and Netanyahu. Who needs whom more?

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16:18You are listening to Today Explained. Michael, why don't we start this way? Go ahead, give me your full name and tell me what you do. Michael Kaplow, and I am the chief policy officer at Israel Policy Forum. Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have run hot and cold on each other since Trump took office in January. At least that appears to be the case. Where do things stand between them right now? Right now, it seems that their relationship is at the high point of what's really only been six months of this term for President Trump. And we've seen ups and downs over the course of their relationship historically.

16:56But even in the past six months, we've seen significant ups and significant downs. On the one hand, this is now Prime Minister Netanyahu's third visit to the White House in President Trump's second term. And that would indicate that these two men have a closer relationship than any other two leaders on the face of the planet. But these visits have not always been so harmonious and they've not always been so great for Prime Minister Netanyahu, particularly the second visit. On that second visit, Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to be blindsided in the Oval Office in front of cameras by a number of things that President Trump said.

17:42He was blindsided on tariffs, where he had come to Washington ostensibly to try and remove any tariffs that President Trump was going to put on Israel. and not only was he not successful in doing so, President Trump sat in front of the cameras and talked about how the United States gives Israel$4 billion a year and that's a lot of money and it should basically get something in return. Don't forget, we help Israel a lot. You know, we give Israel$4 billion a year. That's a lot. Congratulations, by the way. That's pretty good. But we give Israel billions of dollars a year. Billions. It's one of the highest.

18:24He was also blindsided in that meeting, perhaps even more worrisome at the time, on the issue of Iran. We're having direct talks with Iran. And they've started, it'll go on Saturday. We have a very big meeting and we'll see what can happen. Something that Prime Minister Netanyahu was not pleased with and was certainly opposed to. Now, we know how that turned out two months later, but at the time, it was seen as a pretty significant signal that President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu were not on the same page.

19:06In addition to that, in addition to the awkwardness of that second visit, during President Trump's last visit to the Middle East, he went to Saudi Arabia, he went to Qatar, he went to the UAE. He made a huge production out of those visits talking about how much he loved the region, but he didn't go to Israel and many people interpreted that as a snub. Was it? I don't think it was a snub. I think that he went to the region because he wanted to come home with high profile, easy, quick, visible demonstrations of U.S. strength and demonstrating that he could bring deals back home. Ultimately, he thinks of himself as a dealmaker.

19:50And there were all sorts of trade deals and promises for investment to be found in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. those were not going to be found in Israel. All right. So he took that trip to the Middle East back in May. What's changed since then? The biggest thing that has changed is the campaign against Iran, where you had 12 days of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities and personnel. And then you had the very high-profile U.S. strike on the three Iranian nuclear sites at Fordon, Natanz, and Isfahan. And in Israel and certainly within the administration, and I share this assessment, that campaign is viewed as being incredibly successful.

20:39And unlike when President Trump traveled to the region, this is a case where Israel presents him with a big and visible win and he's touting it as much as he can. OK, so Israel gives him a win on Iran. And now, as President Trump is wont, he's looking for another win. On Sunday, he tells reporters that a deal on Gaza is close. Message me on Gaza to Netanyahu. I think we're close to a deal on Gaza. We could have it this week. What do you think he's trying to telegraph and what happens if he's wrong? Does he take it out on Netanyahu? There are two things that President Trump has consistently talked about in terms of his vision for the Middle East and what he wants to accomplish.

21:24One was preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. And whether that has now been done definitively or not, President Trump is certainly treating it as if this is mission accomplished and Iran is now not going to get a nuclear weapon. The one was a big one and it was deep in granite and it was obliterated. And it turned out the Atomic Energy Commission said it is obliterating. The second thing that he's consistently talked about is bringing the fighting in Gaza to an end and expanding the Abraham Accords and bringing other countries into the circle of normalization. All of which I think in his mind is supposed to lead to the Nobel Peace Prize, which really I think is the goal that he seems to put above almost anything else in the realm of foreign policy.

22:11And to accomplish that second one, he needs Prime Minister Netanyahu to go along with what he wants because there is no world in which the fighting in Gaza will end unless Prime Minister Netanyahu agrees to do it. if Prime Minister Netanyahu does not go along with it, there may be consequences, and it may be that President Trump eventually moves on. I think that what we're seeing right now from Prime Minister Netanyahu is an effort to really extend the clock. And so the first part of this is a potential 60-day ceasefire in Gaza that will not bring a permanent end to the war, but will give President Trump the opening that he seeks at the moment.

22:56And if this negotiation is successful, then it also buys Prime Minister Netanyahu two months to figure out whether he wants to keep it going or whether at the end of 60 days the fighting in Gaza will resume. And I think for him, he likes extending his options as much as he can. And so buying this time will be important. And it will allow him to give the president something that the president is really demanding from him. And that should keep the heat off at least for a little bit. These two men have different motivations when it comes to the Palestinian people. Netanyahu doesn't seem to care about Palestinians.

23:31He cares about Israel's security. Trump wants a deal in Gaza because he likes doing deals. Do you think that Donald Trump cares what happens to the Palestinian people? When President Trump speaks about Palestinians, certainly during this term in office, he tends to do it with a degree of empathy that we don't always see from him on other issues. We're looking at Gaza, and we got to get that taken care of. A lot of people are starving. A lot of people are—there's a lot of bad things going on. It's pretty consistent when he talks about Gaza for him to talk about the fact that Palestinians are suffering and that they deserve better.

24:11They deserve a far better life. They deserve the chance to achieve their extraordinary potential. We don't often hear that sort of language from Prime Minister Netanyahu and from many Israeli leaders. And the problem is that for any real resolution to Gaza, you need some sort of political vision. And President Trump often talks about how Palestinians deserve better lives and should have better lives. But it's rare to hear him talk about how he thinks they will get there politically, as opposed to this just being a quality of life issue. And we saw it when he announced his Gaza Riviera plan during that first Netanyahu trip to Washington.

24:59And we saw it again even last night when President Trump got a question about two states. Do you think that there can be a two-state solution that creates an internet? And he didn't answer it. He punted it to Netanyahu. I don't know. I'd ask maybe that question. You have the greatest man in the world to answer that age-old question, two-state. Go ahead. Give him your honest answer. Netanyahu made it very clear that Israel does not see a Palestinian state as part of the Israeli-Palestinian political future. I think Palestinians should have all the powers to govern themselves, but none of the powers should threaten us.

25:38And that means that certain powers, like overall security, will always remain in our hands. So both Trump and Netanyahu need this relationship. Trump needs Netanyahu. Netanyahu needs Trump. Who needs who more, do you think? Netanyahu absolutely needs Trump more than Trump needs Netanyahu. The things that Trump wants right now from Netanyahu are things that would be nice to have. He wants to expand the Abraham Accords. He wants to have better coordination throughout the region. He wants his Nobel Prize. But ultimately, the United States has lots of other issues on its plate. The United States is a global superpower, whereas Israel is not.

26:26And the United States can work on all sorts of other things, even if the Trump-Netanyahu relationship turns out to be poor and the coordination turns out to not be what President Trump wants. from Prime Minister Netanyahu's side, the United States is indispensable. And there are all sorts of things that he wants that he has to have President Trump for. We saw this in practice with Iran, where Israel embarked on airstrikes on its own, but it was clear from the beginning that it needed the United States not only to buy into what Israel was doing, but to actually step in and act. So ultimately, Prime Minister Netanyahu cannot afford to be on President Trump's bad side.