What the Gaza ceasefire really means

0:00Palestinians and Israelis have lived about a decade in the last week. The living Israeli hostages are now home. Palestinian prisoners held by Israel have come home too. Israel has agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza. Both sides are already accusing the other of violating the terms that should be said. President Trump took a victory lap, well-deserved, many people say, in a speech to Israel's Knesset. Today the skies are calm, the guns are silent, the sirens are still, and the sun rises on a holy land that is finally at peace, a land... Then met with more than 20 world leaders in Egypt and complained that Time magazine had used a, quote, super bad picture of him in a cover story touting his triumph.

0:45Some big questions do remain. Will Hamas disarm? Who's going to lead in Gaza? Coming up on Today Explained, peace and then the hard part.

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1:32You're listening to Today Explained. I'm Noelle King here with Nidal al-Mugrabi in Cairo. Nidal is a senior correspondent for Reuters who was based in Gaza until Reuters pulled him out about a month and a half after the war started. Nidal, understandably, there's a lot of optimism about this peace deal. You've been reporting even today on what Hamas is doing in Gaza. What's going on? Since the ceasefire came into effect, Hamas forces have been deployed into the streets of Gaza Strip in areas where the army pulled back from in an attempt to reassert power and to fight back against some of the armed gangs.

2:16and what Hamas calls also people who have collaborated with Israel to instigate chaos and anarchy. They have deployed hundreds of security forces and fighters in some areas. And in the past three days, they have clashed with several clan members and armed groups, killing dozens, according to security officials from Hamas. They're fighting in different places across Gaza Strip. Yes, the exchange of rockets or exchange of fire with Israel may have stopped, but Hamas has another kind of a battle, which is to regain control of Gaza, which it has ruled since 2007. And maybe encouraged by, you know, like US President Donald Trump has said, that they have given a nod to Hamas to do so.

3:15Where they are standing because they do want to stop the problems. And they've been open about it, and we gave them approval for a period of time. So Hamas is doing that in the so-called, let's say, interim period with a nod from the White House. Until when this is going to last? What kind of a window or a timeline for this window given by the Americans to Hamas to still exist before they move to the next phase of disarming the movement, which is going to be a very complicated issue and thorny issue in the negotiations. When it comes to Israel, I think Israel is seeing what's happening. I don't think that Israel is very much like what they see on the ground, because the ultimate goal for Israel, as expressed by Netanyahu and, you know, like our defense minister Katz several times, the next day in Gaza, there would be no presence for Hamas in the government.

4:18Hamas must be disarmed and defeated. That's when it comes to Israel's goals. Over the last two years, many members of Hamas, including the group's leadership, have been killed by Israel. How strong is Hamas today? Hamas nowadays is not the same movement that was before October 7. They have lost almost all of the top military commanders. They have lost many of the political leaders of the group. They have lost hundreds or thousands of fighters. But in the past three days, they have shown some ability to control. You know, they have shown a serious attempt towards re-insurging of their control of Gaza Strip.

5:08We are seeing hundreds of security forces like on the ground. We are seeing dozens of the armed wing, like fighters, like well-equipped, also like touring the streets, raiding some places, looking for people on their wanted list for, like what they said, instigation of anarchy and chaos and collaboration with Israel during the war. Yesterday, there was a video that showed several armed masked men. Some of them were wearing green bandanas resembling the ones that Hamas fighters usually wear on their foreheads, killing seven people. And according to one of Hamas security officials, he confirmed to Reuters the authenticity of the video and told us that it was an execution of alleged collaborators.

6:10That's what he said. What you're reminding us is that Hamas really did have a lot of control over the Gaza Strip and it exercised it at points through violence. A key element of this ceasefire is that Hamas is being asked to disarm and give up control over the territory. How likely is Hamas to actually do that? You know, publicly, officially, Hamas leaders have been against that. They have repeatedly rejected the idea of disarming. Our weapons are going to be handed over only to the hands of a Palestinian state. and our fighters can be integrated into the Palestinian National Army. Before that, no one has the right to deny us the right to resist the occupation by all means.

7:01You know, having said that, there will be negotiations over Israel's and the United States' demands. And actually, it's not only the demand now by Israel and the United States. You know, like since many Arab and Muslim countries, some of them are very friendly with Hamas, welcomed the Trump 20-point documents. I welcome you all to Sharm el-Sheikh Peace Summit at this historic milestone where we all together have witnessed the raging of Sharm el-Sheikh's agreement on ending war in Gaza and the birth of a glimpse of hope that such deal ends an agonizing chapter in the history of mankind. So the pressure on Hamas is expected to be very high, huge.

7:51But in the same time, Hamas is arguing that it has agreed to relinquish power. They will no longer be in the governance in Gaza and that they are accepting a government of technocrat. But they are referring to a Palestinian government of technocrat and not to the international force or entity that the Trump blueprint is detailing. So Palestinians want Palestinian leadership. They don't want outsiders coming in to rule over them. How are civilians in Gaza feeling about the prospect of an end to this war? What are you hearing? The Palestinians, especially in Gaza and everywhere, but especially in Gaza, they're joyful.

8:39But we shouldn't forget that this joy is not pure because it's mixed by the feelings of despair. It's mixed by the feeling of loss and the loss of families, the loss of houses, the loss of an entire city. It's actually stories of despair. You know, like somebody would say, would tell us, now the war is over, it is time to look for the body of my father or the body of my son, which is still under the rubble of our house, like back in Gaza City. Some people would tell you that, yes, the war is over, but when the rebuilding of Gaza will happen? Are we going to continue to live in tents for years to come before they rebuild Gaza?

9:30Because there is no timeline for when the reconstruction will happen or ever will it happen, because it's all dependent on whether the deal will succeed, on whether Hamas will agree to disarm. It is conditional. So, you know, the lack of clarity torments, you know, like the people and also an impact, the feelings of relief they are trying to hold on to. I wonder how you are feeling today after covering decades of wars and peace treaties and more wars and more peace treaties. Where is your mind at?

10:15that's a tough question you know i i've been with reuters since 1996 i have covered you know like numerous uh rounds of fighting uh in addition to the major wars since uh you know i covered the war in 2008, 2012, 2014, 2019, 2021, 22, 23, because there were some major rounds of fighting. And, you know, like, here I am covering the, you know, the biggest and longest ever war or fighting between the Palestinians and Israel. Just like any Palestinian, I just, you know, like hope that the guns have gone silent forever and, you know, that people will, you know, will have the opportunity to like rebuild, you know, their lives because it's not just homes that had been like destroyed.

11:14It's also, you know, like the lives of the people that had been like torn apart, you know, people have, you know, they did not even have a chance to comfort one another, or even to grief for the people they have lost. You know, some of the people have not even had the chance to bury like their, you know, their own people, their relatives. So those deserve like some time of peace, at least even if they want only to grief, even if they want only, you know, I hear people, you know, like telling me that the thing that they want to do the most when this war ends is to cry. You know, imagine. So because, you know, they had to contain, you know, like these feelings of sadness, of sorrow and frustration for so long.

12:11So it is time for them to have some break, relief, and hope that, you know, this war is actually over and that's not going to be any resumption of the fighting. It's what every Palestinian wants. and I'm included.

12:35Nidal el-Mugrabi of Reuters in Cairo. Coming up, what lessons did the world learn from this war? And what if they are the wrong ones?

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16:58You're listening to Today Explained. Josh, go ahead, give me your full name and tell me what you do. I'm Josh Keating. I'm a reporter at Vox covering foreign policy and national security. All right. So you, over the past couple of days, have written and then updated a piece about what you call the bleak lesson that Israel and the world might learn from the end of this war. What is the bleak lesson? What are you talking about? Well, it's just, you know, there was a lot of discussion throughout this war that Israel needed a day-after plan. It needed to come up with some plan for governance of Gaza, and that by killing as many civilians as they did in the process of wiping out Hamas, that they were undermining their own goals.

17:41And I think, you know, with this war ended, is what we have to say, is about as successfully as could have been anticipated over the last few months. You know, really, I think the lesson that a lot of countries are going to take is they don't have to take those things into account. They can just try to win militarily, don't have to think about post-war planning and kill as many civilians as they need to, to accomplish their military goals. And I think, you know, other countries, there are problems with that thesis, but they might see it as a viable solution. Let's talk about how we got here. And let's talk first about the man taking the most credit, and that is President Trump.

18:18How much credit does the president deserve here? You know, I think the sort of Trumpian style diplomacy did play a key role here. I mean, I think what the sort of strength of this deal is they sort of put off the tricky long-term questions about, you know, governance and, you know, whether Hamas was going to disarm and, you know, when Israel is going to withdraw to what point. And they just said, no, Trump said, we need hostages released now, we need a ceasefire now. And when the two sides tried to wiggle out of it, he basically pushed them forward. He did put pressure on Netanyahu in a way it has to be said, Joe Biden never did.

18:58And when Hamas basically responded to the deal with a yes, but Netanyahu tried to treat that as a no, and Trump still pushed forward, he said, you know, he basically treated it as a yes. And so I think that that was critical in getting everyone on the same page. I think the question we have to ask is whether this could have been done sooner. I mean, I think a lot of people are forgetting now that there was a ceasefire in place that was negotiated by the Biden administration when Trump came into office, and that lapsed in March when Israel resumed the war. So could Trump have applied this kind of pressure back in February, March, and avoided all the casualties we've seen since then.

19:40It's hard to say, but we should give him credit for what we saw over the last few weeks, but also their questions to be asked about whether this could have been done earlier. What does President Trump get out of this? What does this mean for the next three plus years of his administration? Well, I think what he'd like to get out of it is a Nobel Peace Prize. He didn't get it last week. There's always next year. I think we'll have to wait and see. I mean, you know, he's, there's another thing I've written about that there's been a lot of discussion about whether, you know, the US is retreating from the world under Trump's presidency.

20:14I don't think that's the right way to look at it. I think Trump has taken a very activist stance on the world. I mean, he says inaccurately that stopped eight wars. So that's never happened before. But I think he sees himself as a peacemaker and a dealmaker. And, And, you know, I think that he will say that he's the only one who could have made this deal, that he's done something Joe Biden wasn't able to do. And, yeah, so I think he sees this as a legacy issue for him. What does Benjamin Netanyahu get out of this deal? Benjamin Netanyahu gets time. For a piece I wrote, I went back to coverage of him in the first year.

20:54He was prime minister back in the 90s. And even then, you know, people were saying that he was this sort of serial bungler, that he was on the way out, that his prime ministership was hanging by a thread. And, you know, the guy's been hanging by a thread for about three decades now. And I think, you know, what happens is he sort of gets in these dilemmas and he plays for time. And I think he's done it again this time. You know, this deal is about as probably good as realistically could be expected over the last, you know, year or so for Israel. You know, it has to be said, I don't think a lot of Israelis are giving him credit for it.

21:35I think Trump is getting a lot more credit for it. You know, if you look at the rallies and the statements that hostage families are making, they're thanking Trump. Thank you, President Trump, for your courage. Thank you, the Trump administration, for doing everything you can to bring them home. President Trump basked in the praise of a country that credits him more than its own prime minister for today's long-awaited reunions. The president's name echoing through Israel's parliament as he touted his landmark diplomatic success. They're not thanking Netanyahu and it's pretty clear that he tried to wiggle out of this up until the last minute but still you know elections are months if not a year away and And I think what we've learned over the past three decades is that, you know, as long as he has sort of time to try to find a way out, you know, he usually does.

22:30This war, you know, it may be over. It may be a win for Netanyahu, the best he could have possibly hoped for. But we do know that it has damaged Israel's reputation internationally. What do you think the ripple effect of this war is down the line? I think the hope for Israel is that, or, you know, and I don't mean Netanyahu, I mean, sort of average Israelis, is that once the fighting stops, that some of the heat will be taken off that, you know, we've already seen it that, you know, governments in the Middle East were clearly sort of coordinating with Israel on this, you know, for all their public statements about the Palestinians, they're still willing to play ball with Israel to a large extent.

23:17And that some of the, you know, for instance, European governments that signed on to recognizing the Palestinian state at the UN a few weeks ago, and are starting to talk about things like sanctions and boycotts, that some of that pressure will go away. We'll be able to see Israeli teams participate in sporting events again, that will, you know, maybe they'll be able to go to Eurovision, Maybe there won't be the same kind of hostile atmosphere faced by Israeli citizens when they travel abroad. I think that's the hope. And I think to some extent that will happen. I think public opprobrium can be pretty short lived.

23:54I mean, we saw Vladimir Putin walking on a red carpet in Alaska a few weeks ago. So on the other hand, you know, I do think there's something of a generational shift going on. I think if you look at the politics of sort of, you know, Gen Z voters in most Western democracies, I think that sort of solidarity with the Palestinian cause and anti-Zionism are becoming a lot more pervasive. And, you know, even if these current governments will maybe look for a way out of the very staunchly pro-Palestinian stances they've taken over the last few months, I think long term, you know, unless we see some major shifts on the ground in the Middle East, that Israel is looking at a more isolated, both politically and economically isolated future.

24:44So to take us back to your piece, your concern is that the lessons countries take from this war is we don't need to worry about civilian life. We don't need to win hearts and minds and we don't have to have a plan for how to rebuild. We just need to do a war. Where does that leave us? Where does that leave the world? Well, you know, I think there's been a lot of discussion over the last few years of the sort of decaying of the so-called rules-based international order, which, you know, always had a lot of flaws and was frequently violated. But there were certain norms that were at least held up as aspirations, even if not always met in practice, you know, certain laws about the conduct of war, about the treatment of civilians.

25:33And, you know, I think we're moving away from that. I think, you know, I mean, if you look at what Pete Hegseth said a few weeks ago in that speech at Quantico. We unleash overwhelming and punishing violence on the enemy. We also don't fight with stupid rules of engagement. We untie the hands of our warfighters to intimidate, demoralize, hunt and kill the enemies of our country. And so, you know, if the United States is, you know, the government that may more than others responsible for setting up a lot of these rules and norms is not even paying lip service to them anymore. I think a lot of countries are going to take note of that, and it's going to affect the way other wars are fought in the future.

26:30today's show. Amin El-Sadi is our editor. Laura Bullard and Hadi Muwagdi check the facts. Patrick Boyd and Adrienne Lilly are our engineers. I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained.

27:02Thank you.