Your midterms study guide

0:00Astead Herndon:We've already done a lot of reporting this year. We went to a data center in New Jersey. We talked to redistricting volunteers in Virginia. I argued with the 24-year-old about whether Trump was still cool or not, and we went to his UFC event in Washington, D.C. But with the midterms right around the corner, I wanted to focus this week on a more simple question. What matters most to voters when it comes to November? So this week, we're going to do something a little different and answer your audience questions. And y 'all had a lot. Who are the real swing voters? How data centers will be affecting the election.

0:37Where APAC is having the most influence. Whether mail and voting is really being suppressed.

0:43Astead Herndon:I love these questions because your lines of inquiry match up perfectly with the reporting we've done over the past year. So this week, we're going to answer some of your concerns and pull out the trends that we have seen throughout our time on the road. Five things you need to know about this year's midterm elections. The stakes, the candidates, the issues. We're cutting through all the noise. It's a midterm study guide. Let's dig in.

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2:17Astead Herndon:OK, so here's five things you need to know about the upcoming midterm elections. The first is that both parties have changed significantly since 2024. On the Republican side, the most important thing to know is that Donald Trump is deeply and increasingly unpopular. The numbers are quite staggering. The latest NBC News survey shows Donald Trump at his lowest approval rating ever. And importantly, that number is driven by a change among Trump's own base. 41 % of Republicans strongly approve of Trump's job performance. That's down 11 percentage points from the spring. And 62 % of self-identified MAGA Republicans support the president.

3:02Astead Herndon:That's down from 71 % in the spring. Even Trump's own allies are admitting the president may be in some trouble when it comes to the midterms. Here's a clip from my interview with C.J. Pearson, the MAGA influencer and mega Trump fan who we talked to a few weeks ago. We have to reorient the conversation that we're having as a party around these domestic issues. Or if not, we will lose disastrously in November. But the question is, why is Donald Trump so unpopular? And the answer starts with the economy. People simply feel like Donald Trump hasn't followed through on his core campaign promise, lowering costs.

3:39Astead Herndon:And while that started with tariffs, it's only gotten worse when we think about rising gas prices or the ongoing war with Iran. We've heard about this a lot all over our travels, like when we were out in Pennsylvania. I voted for him with his promises to American people. And I think he's let us down. The controlling of the prices has skyrocketed. We also heard this when we talked to people at Trump's UFC event in Washington, D.C. I'm middle class. I want things that affect my life. I want to see change in my regular day to day. It's like, and I don't see that. But the economy isn't the only reason that Trump is increasingly unpopular in his second term.

4:21Astead Herndon:I think the Epstein files also has a lot to do with it. You know, Trump got in a lot of trouble for not releasing the Epstein files in a timely and transparent fashion. And we still hear about it on the campaign trail, particularly from some Republicans. And I think this issue had a big effect on people's perception of him. He was no longer the rich guy fighting against the elite insiders. He was a member of the Insider Club, and people have perceived that. After, you know, the Epstein files and everything, should have just, like, ramped up with how he's been acting. I feel like it was a lot more, you know, chill before that.

4:58Astead Herndon:But while Trump remains unpopular, that doesn't mean that he's powerless. Because he's won big in Republican primaries this year, and that is driving the loyalty between him and the Republicans in Congress. Trump took out his political enemies like Republican Thomas Massey or Texas Senator John Cornyn. And while Trump's approval rating has diminished, he still remains in complete control of Republicans in Congress who have refused to break from him. The reason why is because the most loyal primary voters are still mega Trump fans. On the Democratic side, it's been an all-out civil war as the party tries to recover from the embarrassment of the 2024 presidential election.

5:43Astead Herndon:Now, most of these fights have pit the progressive left wing against the moderate establishment wing. But I think it's a mistake to reduce it just to ideology. Democrats are rethinking who they are and who they fight for. And it's a conversation that is starting now, but won't conclude until the 2028 presidential primary. Here's how Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed described the stakes to me in a recent interview. For a long time, the Democratic Party has rested on its laurels that we're not that. We don't win because he's so bad. We win because he's so bad and we're so good. El-Sayed is a strong supporter of Medicare for All and abolishing ICE, two of the signature policies of the progressive left.

6:27Astead Herndon:But what's the signature policy of the moderate establishment wing? That question's harder to answer. Because most moderates would rather talk about stopping Trump or what they don't like about the left. It's been a struggle to get them to talk about their own vision. Here's a clip from my interview with Congressman Jim Clyburn of South Carolina. This country is teetering on the brink. And those of us who know this history and those of us who know this system and those of us who had the energy to fight it had better stay in this fight. My second big takeaway is about the United States' relationship with Israel.

7:08Astead Herndon:This has become a huge issue for voters, and we see it playing out all across the country. You know, it may have started in the Biden administration, but the issue has certainly become more visceral, particularly since the United States ignited a war with Iran at the urging of the Israeli government. Public opinion has soured drastically on Israel, and you can already see it affecting the midterms. Just recently, Vice President J.D. Vance faced significant criticism from Republicans for his refusal to disavow Tucker Carlson, the podcaster and former TV host who's become a vocal critic of the Israeli government and the Trump administration.

7:47Astead Herndon:Tucker is a friend of mine. Tucker is a friend despite the fact that we disagree on a number of things. And I'm not going to play the game where I throw friends under the bus because I have political disagreements with them. On the Democratic side, the Israel question may be best epitomized by the fight over Hassan Piker, the leftist Twitch streamer who has begun campaigning with progressive candidates all across the country. In our interview, Piker was clear. He wants to change the Democratic Party, make it more vocally anti-war, more vocally anti-Israel. He said there's no way the Democratic nominee in the next presidential primary can be pro-Israel.

8:25Any kind of like sympathetic approach to Israel in 2028 will be electoral poison.

8:30Astead Herndon:You won't be able to make it out of the Democratic primary. So it's not even a concern for me at all. Progressive congressional candidates like Daria Liza Avila Chevalier, who defeated a Democratic incumbent in New York City, have also made a similar case. She articulated what amounts to a left-wing argument for America first, saying people want their tax dollars invested in communities at home, not fighting foreign wars. We are constantly being told that there are not enough resources for us while watching a livestream genocide being committed. Our budgets are moral documents. But the rise of the anti-Israel left has not come without controversy.

9:08Astead Herndon:Third way, the centrist Democratic think tank in Washington has led a campaign to get Democrats to marginalize people like Piker, citing past controversial statements. Cohen, the group's president, compared Piker to people like Nick Fuentes and Candace Owens. And according to him, Democrats are embracing an extremist. Democrats are going to beat MAGA and expand the map in the House, the Senate and the White House. The only way to do that is to offer an alternative to the extremism of Trumpism, not to mirror it. You guys also called in with a bunch of questions about Israel and AIPAC. Here are a few.

9:45Noah calling in for Brooklyn. And I'm curious about the upcoming election cycle, where AIPAC is having the most influence, What's happening to all of that money? They're pouring in to different races. Are the candidates winning? Hello, this is Devin from Salt Lake City, Utah. I believe this is probably just as impactful as the Citizens United decision. Thank you.

10:08Astead Herndon:There's no doubt that corporate dollars, and particularly money from AIPAC and the pro-Israel lobby, was a big issue, particularly in Democratic primaries this year. But when it comes to the general election, both parties will be flushed in corporate and the question of finances may matter a little bit less in a race that has national attention. That being said, there are a few races to watch when it comes to the Israel question specifically. I'd point you to candidates like Angie Nixon in Florida, who has risen in that race partially because of her willingness to call out what she said was a Democratic Party too beholden to the pro-Israel lobby.

10:49Astead Herndon:I'd also point you to a couple progressive candidates running in important House districts like William Lawrence in Michigan or Manny Rutnell in Colorado. These are people who have embraced the kind of America first messaging model by candidates like Daria Liza Avila Chevalier. But can it work in a district that's more purple and more central to the question of Democrats controlling the House in the next few years? In these races, we'll get a sense about whether the anti-Israel message works in more battleground districts, or is this something that has more resonance in liberal, deep blue areas.

11:27Astead Herndon:The third thing that sticks out to me is that everything is about affordability now. The word has become ubiquitous in political world ever since New York City Mayor Zoram Amdani made it his signature campaign issue in 2025. These days, it's in everybody's campaign ads. Earlier this year, I talked to Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Kazar about the affordability agenda that his caucus laid out. And more importantly, I talked to him about what that word actually means. Here's what he said. He said, your rent is going up. Let's blame it on some Venezuelan immigrants. But it was not Wokeness that raised your rent.

12:06It was a Wall Street hedge fund.

12:07Astead Herndon:The fourth takeaway, and a big one from our year of reporting, is all about AI. People are concerned about affordability and the economy, but that concern is explicitly tied to mass anxiety about the future of work, especially in the age of artificial intelligence. AI has changed everything, and the voters know it. And they're upset with a political system that has not proactively protected them against a changing society. Listen to what we heard at a town hall in New Jersey when it comes to data centers. I can't sell my house, I told you. People come in. I have a woman who came back twice, had cash, and realized it was near the data center.

12:49Her child said, Mom, she says, I just can't do this.

12:54Astead Herndon:And this fear is especially true among the youngest voters. When we dug into all things Gen Z with researcher Rachel Jamfaza, She said that concerns about affordability and jobs cannot be separated from concerns about AI. It's all connected. When you're talking about the biggest issues and what's affecting young people's lives, AI is at the center of that. And a lot of you had questions about AI, data centers, and its potential impact in the midterms. Here are a few. I'm calling because you asked about what we're most interested in for the November election. And something I'm particularly interested in is how data centers will be affecting the election.

13:33I'm Kim from Chicago. I'm 35. And my biggest questions about the economy and midterms are AI and jobs. When it comes to AI and data centers, there are so many races to watch. This may be the most talked about issue of this midterm elections. But I think there's a couple races that are worth calling out specifically. First, of course, the Senate race in Michigan. Progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has stopped short of calling for a moratorium on data centers throughout the year. But just in the last week, he's just changed his tone. He said that this is a break glass moment for AI development and that development needs to be paused right now to get a sense of its potential impact.

14:14That also comes as his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, has himself called for a one year moratorium on data centers. Both candidates are really fighting to show themselves as the AI regulator in that race, which I think speaks to the public opinion shift on the issue. The second race worth watching is down in Texas. Texas originally welcomed AI and data centers, but Governor Greg Abbott has since made a little bit of a U-turn. In the last couple weeks, he says that data centers dug their own grave with the public, which again signals how sentiment has shifted on this issue, not just among Democrats, but among Republicans and with independents.

14:53But the fifth thing you need to know this midterms is all about election security. And I got to say, this was the topic that we got more questions about than any other. People are clearly concerned about the validity of our democratic system, the role of the Supreme Court, and concerned about things like mail-in ballots. So we're going to answer all your questions coming up next.

15:49Astead Herndon:We'll see you next time. of money every month, and he's never run into any issue where his coverage might be limited. To get your new wireless plan for just$15 a month, go to mintmobile.com slash estead. That's mintmobile.com slash A-S-T-E-A-D. Cut your wireless bill to$15 a month at mintmobile.com slash estead. That's it. There's no catch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months, $90 for six months, and$180 for 12 months. Plan required. $15 per month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. Initial plan term only. Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. Includes up to 20 gigabyte hotspot.

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16:40This episode is brought to you by Palmolive. Family time isn't just the big moments. It's weeknight dinners, sitting around the table, everyone talking all at once. So when the plates are empty and the sink is full, use Palmolive Ultra. Palmolive's most powerful formula removes up to 99.9 % of grease, leaving your dishes sparkling clean. And the new convenient pump makes cleaning even easier, so you can spend less time tackling dishes and more time together. Shop now at palmolive.com. Who says Halloween only lasts one day? With Wayfair, one night of Halloween becomes a whole season at home. From larger-than-life yard decor and moody lighting to festive accents for every room in the house, Wayfair has what you need to make Halloween feel like magic all in one place.

17:26Because the best Halloween memories aren't made in just one night. They're made all season long. Shop Halloween decor now at Wayfair.com. That's W-A-Y-F-A-I-R dot com. Wayfair, every style, every home. So by far, the number one question that we got from y 'all was all about election integrity. People are clearly concerned about the rules of our democratic process, the redistricting wars, the role the Supreme Court might play in this elections. And of course, Donald Trump's threats to declare a national emergency ahead of November. So to help me out, I called up Vox political editor Benji Sarland.

18:07Benji has been helping us shape our political coverage throughout the year, and he's been tracking these issues very closely. Thanks, Benji, for joining us. Thanks so much, Isted. OK, so I want to get to our audience questions, and we're going to start with the state of play when it comes to redistricting. Now, earlier this summer, we heard how the GOP was basically trying to hijack the political process to exert pressure on state lawmakers to draw more safe conservative districts to give them an advantage in the midterms. And then the Democrats responded with their own redistricting moves in places like California, and they tried to do so in Virginia.

18:43Here's some of what we heard from Cook Political Report's Amy Walter over the summer. The primary process has become as corrupted as it was back then. Most people who get elected to Congress are going to be elected in seats that are pretty safely red or safely blue. The primaries matter more than anything. You can create all the reforms you want, but if people feel like the system is broken, they're not going to participate. And we heard even more about this issue when we traveled to Virginia's first congressional district. The maps are a problem, and they're always going to be a problem when, you know, just there's going to be backroom deals making maps that strategically disadvantage one party over the other.

19:21People start to feel like, what does it matter? Like, I tried, and we're doing all these things, and we even voted. And we said, you know, used our voice, and it still didn't work. Benji, where did this all land? Do Republicans actually have a structural advantage when it comes to redistricting as we get to November? So this is a very confusing process. It's different from state to state. The court is involved, and in fact, they're still involved right up to this week. Missouri has been trying to eliminate a Democratic seat. It got stopped by a Supreme Court decision, then possibly approved by a different court decision just minutes later.

19:59But the Virginia redistricting move that would have favored Democrats was tossed out for procedural reasons. And Republicans are probably going to have an advantage in, let's say, 10 to 12 additional seats by some estimates. Now, what does that mean? It means there are fewer competitive seats overall. And Democrats, depending on your estimate, may need to win the national popular vote by three, four, five points to win a House majority. But Democrats are still favored by many election forecasters to win the House. So why is that? One, Democrats are leading by quite a bit in national polls. It's about six and a half points, according to Nate Silver's latest polling average.

20:40Second, Republicans have a very narrow majority. So Democrats don't actually need to net a ton of new seats to win a majority. Third, if Democrats really start hitting the higher end of that polling, even some gerrymandered seats might fall because the way gerrymanders work is that they spread their vote margins across more seats, which makes them easier to win, but also raises the chance of an upset in some of them. So in Texas in particular, there are some Republican concerns that they might not be able to hold onto every seat they plan to gain. Now, this shouldn't make you any less upset about it.

21:14It's politicians choosing their own voters now after every election instead of just 10 years to try to pull up the ladder behind them. It goes against the spirit of our democratic system and accountability and representation. But if you're worried the election is canceled, that is not the case. This is a highly competitive race. Your vote does matter. You mentioned the Supreme Court in that answer, and that really leads us to a couple audience questions we got on that front. You know, it seems as if the fear that the Supreme Court could have a big impact on election security is really visceral for some of our audience.

21:46Take a listen to a couple of these questions. I want to learn more about whether mail and voting is really being suppressed. I have read about an executive order that outlines all these changes that states are unable to comply to, but yet it's law, but maybe it's going to get blocked. I really have an existential fear that in the end, the Supreme Court might rule that it's okay to suppress vote by mail and the U.S. Postal Service will just not deliver our ballots. And it just feels like this very scary possibility. So how valid do you think the concern is that the Supreme Court might hand Republicans further advantage?

22:27So let's start with the basics here. Nobody can just presume any decision is guaranteed by the Supreme Court. It's a very conservative one. They've zigged sometimes when people thought they were going to zag. However, what Trump is trying to do is still seen as at least a relative long shot in the courts. Explain that. For a few reasons. So Trump has tried this executive order, among other attempts to influence elections, and the Supreme Court is ultimately expected to weigh in. Now, one, we have separation of powers. Generally, federal government, especially the executive branch, is not supposed to be changing election law by executive order.