Back to the tariff board

23 Feb 2026 · 53 min · 19 chapters

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Wake Up to Money - Episode Summary: Back to the Tariff Board

Overview In this episode of Wake Up to Money, host Felicity Hannah discusses the implications of President Trump's newly imposed global tariffs. The episode features insights from a US business owner, an economist, and covers the latest trends affecting the hiring landscape in the UK, particularly in the logistics and warehouse sectors. Additionally, it highlights successes from recent BAFTA awards in the UK film industry.

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Key Topics

  1. Global Tariffs Imposed by President Trump
  2. Background: Following a Supreme Court ruling deeming Trump's tariffs illegal, the president imposed new tariffs of first 10%, then 15% on global trade into the US.
  3. Economic Impacts:
  4. Cassie Abel, CEO of Wild Rye: Discussed the chaos and confusion brought about by the tariffs, and the potential for refunds for paid tariffs.
  5. Caroline Freund, Economist: Explained the implications of Section 122 tariffs for balance of payments, which will be effective for 150 days unless renewed by Congress.
  6. Simon Kenny, CEO of Goodfellow: Expressed concerns about the increased uncertainty for businesses and the complexities of supply chains affected by tariffs.
  1. Effects on US Businesses
  2. Business Sentiment: Many businesses struggle with uncertainty in planning and budgeting due to fluctuating tariff policies.
  3. Challenges for Small Businesses: Small enterprises like Wild Rye face significant burdens, and the complexity of tariffs can drive up costs and lead to uncertainty in pricing strategies.
  1. Recruitment Challenges in the UK
  2. Hiring Statistics: January witnessed the worst hiring figures in five years, particularly in the logistics and warehouse sectors.
  3. Mike Harrison, MD of Transglobal Logistics: Noted the scaling back in hiring due to business confidence and the need for clarity in the market.
  4. Apprenticeships: Emphasized the importance of apprenticeship programs for cultivating future talent in logistics, although there's a lack of understanding about the industry among young people.
  1. BAFTA Awards Insights
  2. Celebrating UK Film: Discussion with Georgia Bailiff, producer of the BAFTA-winning film "I Swear", about the challenges of independent filmmaking.
  3. Casting and Financial Challenges: The film won awards for casting and faced hurdles in funding, with the director having to leverage personal assets to secure production.

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Key Takeaways

  • The newly imposed tariffs represent a shift in US trade policy that has significant implications for both domestic and international businesses.
  • There is a growing sentiment of uncertainty among business owners, particularly in the high-tech and creative sectors, making strategic planning increasingly difficult.
  • Recruitment challenges in the UK are exacerbated by economic uncertainties and the need for skilled workers in specialized sectors like logistics.
  • The success of UK films at the BAFTAs highlights the resilience and creativity within the independent film industry despite financial hurdles.

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Conclusion This episode of Wake Up to Money sheds light on the multifaceted impact of trade policies on businesses, the hiring landscape, and the creative arts. The discussions emphasize the need for predictability and strategic planning in a rapidly changing economic environment.

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Listener Engagement: The episode invites listeners to share their thoughts on personal finance topics, encouraging interaction through social media and messaging.

For more insights and discussions, subscribe to Wake Up to Money on BBC Sounds.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Overview of Today's Topics

0:49 to 1:48

Discussing tariffs, hiring figures, and UK film celebrations.

“More trade turmoil, though, as President Donald Trump hits back at that Supreme Court decision on tariffs.”

Listener Engagement on Small Pleasures

1:48 to 2:30

The host prompts listeners to share their small, affordable pleasures.

“It's just coming up to five minutes past five.”

Guest Introductions and Small Pleasures

2:30 to 4:32

Introducing guests and sharing their own small pleasures.

“But just in case, you can text me on 85058.”

Understanding Advanced Materials

4:32 to 5:59

Discussion on what advanced materials are and their uses.

“They're using them for everything from curing cancer to launching satellites and lots of other really high-tech, even AI.”

Impact of Current Tariffs on Businesses

5:59 to 8:00

Discussing the implications of new tariffs on companies and planning.

“So, for example, as I mentioned earlier, we're working with AI, we're working with medical applications and a lot of space and things like that.”

US Tariffs and Their Economic Consequences

8:00 to 10:12

Exploring the economic effects of the new tariffs on the US economy.

“Cassie Abel is founder and CEO of Wild Rye, an American outdoor apparel brand, joining us from the US in Sun Valley, Idaho.”

UK's Position in the Tariff Landscape

10:12 to 14:06

Examining how the UK could be affected by the tariff changes.

“But the president on Truth Social Saturday said that they will actually be 15 percent.”

Tariff Changes and Their Impact

14:06 to 16:48

Discussion on the implications of tariff changes, particularly for the UK.

“The president is also talking about using Section 301 and Section 232.”

The Challenges of US Manufacturing

16:48 to 19:18

Exploration of the difficulties facing US manufacturing in the context of tariffs.

“Caroline, talk to me about what that might mean for the US, because it didn't seem like Donald Trump was attempting to reorder global trade, just perhaps make it more favorable to the US.”

The Aftermath of Tariffs on Businesses

19:18 to 22:50

Analysis of potential refunds for businesses affected by tariffs and their economic implications.

“Cassie, we heard Simon talking about the need to perhaps manufacture, make more stuff in the US, which we know has been one of the goals that President Trump had with these tariffs.”
Show all 19 chapters

Global Trade Dynamics and Consumer Sentiment

22:50 to 25:51

Discussion on the shifting landscape of global trade and consumer attitudes amid tariffs.

“But Jane, one that I want to talk to you about is we've touched on this idea that there could potentially be scope now for refunds for businesses for the estimated$142 billion that's been generated by the tariffs.”

Opportunities Amidst Challenges in the Economy

28:00 to 31:26

Explore insights on the current economic landscape and strategies for businesses.

“And it is, of course, the epicenter of the AI boom.”

Understanding Small Pleasures in Spending

31:43 to 34:34

Discover what small purchases bring joy and insights into spending habits.

“Let's just have a few of your cheap, small spends, big pleasures.”

The Current Job Market Landscape

34:34 to 42:00

Analyze the hiring trends and challenges faced by businesses today.

“Because last month was the worst January for hiring in five years.”

Youth Unemployment and Apprenticeship Challenges

42:00 to 46:03

Explore the current state of youth unemployment in the UK and the challenges facing young people in accessing apprenticeship programs.

“what is quite a complex business from the ground up.”

Listener Feedback on Workforce Dynamics

46:03 to 46:31

Discussion on listener responses regarding the impact of part-time work on unemployment statistics.

Highlighting BAFTA-Winning Performances

46:40 to 48:00

Reflection on the performances and achievements of actors at the BAFTA Awards, including Robert Aramayo.

“That was the UK film I Swear and the voice of Robert Aramayo.”

Production Insights from 'I Swear'

48:00 to 49:44

Producer Georgia Bailiff shares insights on the making of the BAFTA-winning film 'I Swear'.

“There were so many heavyweights in that category, new and old, you know, newcomers like Timothee Chalamet.”

Funding Challenges in Independent Film

49:44 to 52:18

Discussion on the difficulties of securing funding for independent films and creative control in production.

“And also, you know, producing with Tempo, we're really focused on being cast driven.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00US business owner:This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. If there was a big red button that would just demolish the internet, I would smash that button with my forehead.

0:13UK Bafta award winner:From the BBC, this is The Interface, the show that explores how tech is rewiring your week and your world. This isn't about quarterly earnings or about tech reviews. It's about what technology is actually doing to your work, your politics, your everyday life. and all the bizarre ways people are using the internet. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

0:41UK Bafta award winner:BBC Sounds. Music, radio, podcasts.

0:45US business owner:Wake Up To Money from BBC Five Live.

0:48Felicity Hannah:Hello, welcome to Wake Up To Money. No technical difficulties for us. More trade turmoil, though, as President Donald Trump hits back at that Supreme Court decision on tariffs. The world is waking up this Monday morning to not 10%, but 15 % tariffs on all global trade into the US. We will chat to a US business and an economist about what that means for all of us. Then January saw its worst hiring figures for five years. We'll hear from a boss who says it's actually quite hard to find the staff. And last night was all about celebrating UK film. We're going to get you better. Next in no time. Johnny Deere.

1:28UK Bafta award winner:It's called Tourette's Syndrome. Say things that I shouldn't. What can you do?

1:32Felicity Hannah:Oh, a producer who worked on BritFlick, I swear, will be joining us to talk about their wins at last night's BAFTA Awards and the challenges of making movies in the UK.

1:42UK Bafta award winner:Wake Up To Money with Felicity Hanna.

1:45Felicity Hannah:Good morning. Welcome to Wake Up To Money. Welcome to Monday. It's the 23rd of February. It's just coming up to five minutes past five. Oh, there's a lot to talk about in the next hour. There always is. I think there always is when there's been activity in the States over the weekend. But I also want to hear from you. I want to hear from you on that, on all the stuff that we're talking about, jobs, tariffs, everything we cover this morning. But over the weekend, I was really, really enjoying just a one pound bunch of daffodils in my kitchen. And it got me thinking, what are your smallest priced, biggest pleasures?

2:20Felicity Hannah:What do you spend a really small amount of money on but get an outsized enjoyment from? So for me, it's that one pound bunch of daffodils. Absolutely love it. What is it for you? Get in touch and let me know. You know the drill. But just in case, you can text me on 85058. You can send me a WhatsApp message on 08085 909693. And if you're on social media like X or Blue Sky, use the hashtag WakeUpToMoney. And I will keep an eye on that. I will also be keeping an eye in my very studio on Simon Kenny, Chief Executive of the Huntington-based Advanced Materials Maker Goodfellow. Morning, Simon.

2:57US business owner:Morning, Felicity.

2:58Felicity Hannah:Thank you very much for being with us in the studio. Maybe pull your mic, I think, a little bit further towards you. That's so much better. Simon, do you have a small-priced big pleasure?

3:08US business owner:Gosh, I was just thinking about that as you mentioned it. And I'm probably like a lot of people. My morning coffee is probably my one pleasure. that's not too expensive.

3:19Felicity Hannah:Here at Wake Up To Money, we are big fans and I think our listeners all be big fans of that morning caffeine injection. Also joining us today, Simon, is Jane Foley, head of FX Strategy at Rabobank. Jane, good morning. Good morning. Don, then, small priced, big pleasure.

3:35UK Bafta award winner:You know what? It's the free things. It's a nice walk on a beautiful day, walk along the beach, perhaps in the winter when the sky is blue. So those things don't really cost anything at all. You're just so wholesome, Jane.

3:46Felicity Hannah:That's such a lovely answer. I'm looking more for like, you know, the 15p fudge. 85058, if you want to join in this conversation or any of the conversations that we're having this morning. Simon, really good to have you back on the show. I'm conscious that I describe you as a Huntington based advanced materials maker. And a lot of our listeners who've not heard from me before will be thinking, what's an advanced materials maker?

4:11US business owner:Well, let me try and put it as simple as I can.

4:14Felicity Hannah:Please do, because it is only seven minutes.

4:16US business owner:Of course. So we sell small quantities of metals, polymers and ceramics for advanced high-tech applications. So you might go, well, what are people using small bits of metal or plastic for?

4:30Felicity Hannah:What are people using small bits of metal or plastic for?

4:32US business owner:Great question. They're using them for everything from curing cancer to launching satellites and lots of other really high-tech, even AI. So we're working with AI companies and their materials, their wafers and drilling tiny holes in them. And what we do is, although we're based in Huntington, we're global. So 90 % of our business is export. So we're talking tariffs. We've got lots to talk about. We've definitely got lots to talk about.

5:02Felicity Hannah:OK, so you kind of make the mini bits, the specialist bits for these multitude of different industries.

5:08US business owner:We like to think we partner with the high-tech applications and the high-tech researchers to take their projects pretty much from thought and design. So we've got some very, very clever people at our site in Huntington and also at our other sites around the world that partner with these research engineers and help them bring their idea to reality and then follow right through to production as well.

5:35Felicity Hannah:OK, so how's business going then? I mean, presumably, the very specialist work that you do means it's easier to plan.

5:43US business owner:I'd like to think so. Because we're exporters, I don't think easy to plan is something in anyone's vocabulary right now. But certainly, we tend to be right at the start of the innovation chain. So we are operating in the high-tech sectors that really are immune from a lot of the volatility currently. So, for example, as I mentioned earlier, we're working with AI, we're working with medical applications and a lot of space and things like that. So what you find is that people are still putting money into that. And even, you know, we work with fusion technology, particularly in the US, and they're still investing in that despite some of the rhetoric from the current administration.

6:36Felicity Hannah:OK, well, let's talk about some of the rhetoric from the current administration, because last week ended in drama over the weekend. It got even spicier. On Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs are illegal. the court found that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which Trump invoked to impose those tariffs, did not, in fact, allow him to do so.

7:00US business owner:Foreign countries that have been ripping us off for years are ecstatic. They're so happy. And they're dancing in the streets, but they won't be dancing for long. That I can assure you.

7:13Felicity Hannah:Well, and it didn't take long. Over the weekend, the president imposed first a 10 % worldwide tariff and then a 15 % worldwide tariff under the powers of a never used trade law. Now, this law allows those new tariffs to stay in place for around five months. After that, the administration has to seek the approval of Congress. But of course, what does this mean for what's happened so far? Because the US government has already collected$142 billion under the authority of that act. This is according to data from the US Customs and Border Protection. And Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who was one of the members of the Supreme Court who disagreed with the finding, he made the point that the court says nothing about whether, and if so, how, the government should go about returning the billions of dollars it has collected from importers.

8:01Felicity Hannah:So let's talk to one. Cassie Abel is founder and CEO of Wild Rye, an American outdoor apparel brand, joining us from the US in Sun Valley, Idaho. Cassie, good morning, or whatever time it is. I haven't actually checked. What time is it? in Idaho. It's 10pm. Well, thank you so much for staying up with us. And in order to tell us, what does this mean for you? Have you been able to work out some rapid sums on what this new 15 % tariff will mean for your business?

8:29UK Bafta award winner:I mean, because it's wiping, DAEPA tariffs are wiped out. It's about sixes. It's swapping out, you know, one tariff for another at this point. But yeah, it's really frustrating. It creates more confusion, more chaos as we are trying to just move forward.

8:49Felicity Hannah:Is there any optimism, though? Because there might be, there is this sort of speculation that perhaps the government will have to refund the hundreds of billions of dollars that it's collected in tariffs so far.

9:02UK Bafta award winner:Yeah, the refund is the only silver lining to this. So the potential refund of hundreds of thousands of dollars that we've paid out to the US government, a small portion of which we have been forced to pass along to consumers, but we've absorbed the majority of it ourselves. So, yeah, we'd really like to see that money back in order to move forward.

9:26Felicity Hannah:Let's find out how it might move forward. Let's also bring in Caroline Freund, who's Dean of the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego, and a former Global Director of Trade, Investment and Competitiveness at the World Bank. Caroline, Really good to have you with us. Just explain what these new tariffs are and what they actually might mean for businesses like Cassie's.

9:51economist:Yeah, the new tariffs will be applied under Section 122, which is for balance of payments issues. So they fit the current situation in terms of U.S.'s large current account deficit. And what they mean is that there'll be new tariffs of initially it was 10 percent and that's what's in the White House fact sheet. But the president on Truth Social Saturday said that they will actually be 15 percent. So there'll be 15 percent across the board tariffs. There are some exemptions, but basically they'll leave most tariffs pretty similar to where they were from the IEPA tariffs.

10:34Felicity Hannah:Does it mean that any tariffs the president wants to impose for the long term now have to be approved by Congress? And is that likely to cause him any trouble if it does?

10:45economist:Well, not exactly. So these tariffs don't need to be approved by Congress, but they can only remain in place for 150 days. What it doesn't make very clear is whether they can lapse after 150 days and then be renewed a week later. So one possibility is Congress approves them. I think 150 days from now will be mid-July. The other is they lapse then and new tariffs for a new emergency are put into place.

11:20Felicity Hannah:Cassie, that sounds really, really tricky to plan. And if I hear one thing from businesses, it's that they like certainty.

11:29UK Bafta award winner:Yeah, the uncertainty of the last year has been really crippling. I mean, we paid, you know, 5x in shipping to try to beat tariff deadlines last summer, to beat the August 12th tariff reduction period for China, which led to just heightened shipping costs plus tariffs. So the uncertainty just makes it nearly impossible to plan for.

11:53Felicity Hannah:I'm going to bring in Simon here because Simon Goodfellow, that your chief executive of, is affected by this, isn't he? You've got US owners, you've got a president, a presence in the States. What's your take on this? What might it mean for you?

12:07US business owner:We do. Well, I'm hopefully looking forward to some refunds. That'll be very pleasant. And as your other guest said, we've absorbed a lot of the tariffs ourselves. However, we've also taken a long-term strategy. So we're opening a new site in Baltimore. We've already got a manufacturing facility in Baltimore. We're expanding it. It's already full with some of the manufacturing that we're moving from other parts of the world. But as you mentioned earlier, business likes certainty. and this really brings in further uncertainty. And one of the side things that this has created, we've actually employed more people in Huntington from our compliance team because we've had to obviously navigate this across our complex supply chains.

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12:57US business owner:So we don't just supply UK product to America. Some of that product is machined in Europe, part of it then comes to the UK, then it goes to the US. So these complex supply chains and then the tariffs in between and the costs in between almost make it very, very difficult for planning. And also it can be very expensive for the consumer.

13:21Felicity Hannah:Caroline, what does the latest developments, what we've seen over the weekend, these 15 % tariffs, what does that mean for the US economy and the US consumer?

13:32economist:Well, I think what it means is with what the Supreme Court has done, there are some guardrails on how extreme and how quickly these tariffs can be put into place and whether they can differentiate really highly between countries. So now they're going to be much more similar across countries. But ultimately, we're still going to see tariffs that are pretty similar, maybe a couple of percentage points lower, but pretty similar to where they were. So I don't think it's a huge change. The president is also talking about using Section 301 and Section 232. Those were the parts of trade law that allowed the China tariffs.

14:20economist:and the steel and aluminum tariffs in the past. So I think this is, you know, there's some positive here that we're moving towards a little bit less uncertainty, but we're certainly not back to the predictable world before 2018 when sort of tariffs first became the norm in the United States.

14:43Felicity Hannah:2018, was that the last time we think it was a predictable world? Jane, I want to bring you in here because there's a fear, isn't there, that the UK could be one of the biggest losers from this tariff reset. With this flat 15 % rate promised for all nations, we'd been pushing for that 10 % rate. The British Chambers of Commerce estimates this could add up to£3 billion to the cost of UK exports to the US. It could affect around 40 ,000 companies.

15:10UK Bafta award winner:That's exactly right. So the countries that have negotiated a 10 % tariff, and the UK is not alone there, fairly has hit more uncertainty than most others. Others, of course, expecting maybe something quite similar. But, you know, look at, say, the market reaction today. What we see is perhaps not as much volatility as many people would have expected. And that's because the markets always anticipated that if the Supreme Court struck down the tariff agenda, then Trump would find another way, which is exactly what he appears to have done. What it does, of course, bring in is just more uncertainty.

15:50UK Bafta award winner:What's going to happen after 150 days? And that, of course, does add some costs. So as we've been hearing with your guests, markets like uncertainty, businesses like certainty, they don't like this extra volatility potentially. And what we've seen this year is a number of significant leaders. So we've got Chancellor Mertz, for instance, this week. We've seen the Carney from Canada. We've seen the prime minister of the UK and others visit China. And one of the takeaways from this is that that extra uncertainty perhaps has seen some leaders shift towards China, who may now be coming across as perhaps a more predictable trading partner.

16:39UK Bafta award winner:So there are consequences to this, even though the markets had anticipated that there would be another way in which Trump would enact these tariffs.

16:48Felicity Hannah:Caroline, talk to me about what that might mean for the US, because it didn't seem like Donald Trump was attempting to reorder global trade, just perhaps make it more favorable to the US. Yeah, that's exactly right.

17:02economist:When you hear from the administration, what they always say is their policy is America first. But what they're not taking into account is that America alone isn't nearly as powerful as America with its allies and partners. And I think most economists, many Americans would prefer to see a more predictable world, a world where we work to have alliances with countries like the UK and the European Union and Japan and Korea and Australia, Canada, Mexico, etc. rather than this go-it-alone policy that is pushing countries towards thinking about China. I mean, that sounds odd to me to hear China being called a more predictable partner than the US.

17:57economist:But I think that's the world we're getting towards, which is scary.

18:03Felicity Hannah:Jane, what would that mean? How would that change how global trade works?

18:10UK Bafta award winner:Well, of course, global trade has already changed. And I think after 30 years of globalization, we've gone into a period of a lot more friction. And of course, when you enact trade barriers or trade frictions, what you generally get is more inflation and lower growth. And that appears to be the period that we're in. So you have this new geopolitical age, perhaps, where regions such as Europe or other countries too. They're pushed towards looking for more perhaps autonomy. And that is because of the geopolitical frictions, but also the trade frictions. And we can see the extra cost. I mean, we've just heard your other guest talking about potentially more compliance cost in the UK.

18:54UK Bafta award winner:But also we have maybe trading partners having to look for the second best option. Now, that may be an option which is perhaps more expensive or maybe not as good quality. And that ultimately gets passed on in higher prices to somebody, which is ultimately probably the consumer. So higher prices, slower growth, and that is probably the ultimate consequence of the period that we're

19:17Felicity Hannah:in. Cassie, we heard Simon talking about the need to perhaps manufacture, make more stuff in the US, which we know has been one of the goals that President Trump had with these tariffs. Is that something that you can do for your business? Or is that something that you just could not afford to move a lot of your manufacturing to close after home?

19:42UK Bafta award winner:Yeah, absolutely. U.S. manufacturing is actually something we tried when we initially launched, and it almost tanked us before we came to market. not only was the cost higher, but the materials, the supply chain doesn't exist here in the U.S. for technical apparel. We didn't have the accountability and the accuracy and detail orientation required in our product with U.S. manufacturing. And yeah, I mean, the administration has come right out and said that textiles aren't a priority and yet we're still being punished. So we'd really like to see some exclusions and refunds through this process because we simply can't bring manufacturing back to the US.

20:26Felicity Hannah:Caroline, how likely do you think it is that Cassie will see refunds and exclusions?

20:33economist:I think that, well, there definitely and there already are some exclusions. Unfortunately for Cassie, I think they tend to be more in the critical minerals, aerospace, security area. So the refunds, I think, also will happen. You know, you can't have a court case rule in your favor, and then you don't get the appropriate compensation. So I do think the refunds are going to happen. I think it might be a long, grueling, punishing process, but I do think they'll happen. I think the important thing is is what Cassie said about manufacturing in the United States. And after all these tariffs, we haven't seen any sign, whether you look at employment, output, industrial production of a rebound in manufacturing.

21:30economist:Actually, it's declined. So it's hard to imagine how these tariffs are going to have any kind of effect on bringing back the type of production when we're already at full employment in the economy as it is. And there are many businesses who say they can't even find the workers they need for manufacturing in the US.

21:54Felicity Hannah:Simon, how have you found it?

21:56US business owner:Yeah, that resonates with me, certainly finding...

21:59Felicity Hannah:I've noticed you nodding along, actually, to a lot of what's been said.

22:02US business owner:Of course, finding the right talent. And the thing is we have expanded our manufacturing in the US, but we'd already been planning to do that. And to do that from a standing start is very, very difficult and can take not months but years. And companies that haven't been planning to do that literally won't be able to do it. And the other thing, particularly, you know, I spoke about complex supply chains earlier, But the processing of some of the materials that we do, 90 % of it is done in China. So you're not going to change that overnight and move it to the US. You're just not. You don't have the technical know-how.

22:41US business owner:You don't have the capability. And building factories like that, as I mentioned earlier, will take years.

22:48Felicity Hannah:So many different issues to get into. But Jane, one that I want to talk to you about is we've touched on this idea that there could potentially be scope now for refunds for businesses for the estimated$142 billion that's been generated by the tariffs. It's very likely to end up in another court battle if it does look like it's happening. But if that did happen, what could that mean for the cost of government borrowing for the US?

23:16UK Bafta award winner:Well, that's one of those big unknowns. And we have seen the longer end of the bond market wobble a bit on that. I mean, this has been discussed really for the past few weeks, at least. What happens if there are refunds? Because the government has taken in all of that revenue. How would it replace it? And the fear is that there would be more issuance of government debt. And therefore, you've seen the Treasury market wobble, the long end yields move up in reaction to that. So clearly, we're at an environment now and we've seen this, you know, quite a lot really since last April when those tariffs were announced.

23:54UK Bafta award winner:With the bond market in the US has come under question quite a lot. It's been under the magnifying glass to some degree. And that's because, of course, the debt in the US is really very significant. And there are questions in the markets about whether or not the US Treasury is running a prudent policy. Now, because the debt is high and there are those questions, last April, of course, we saw a massive sell off in US Treasury bonds. And that created this whole debate in the market about, my goodness, is the dollar being debased? Is the market dumping US sovereign bonds? Now, it's not. We had data from the Treasury recently that goes back to November and it said actually foreigners hold record amounts of US paper, US debt.

24:43UK Bafta award winner:So the debasement theme hasn't been proved, but the markets are an environment where they are worried about fiscal matters. And this whole debt issue is something which the markets are concerned about.

24:59Felicity Hannah:We're certainly seeing some consumer concern. And Keith has messaged the programme to say, regarding the Groundhog Day Trump tariffs, the UK and others should actively seek other markets and turn their backs on the US. Caroline, what's your view? Do you think that you've talked about sort of people turning to China as potentially a more stable trading partner, but do you think that there could be a sentiment shift among consumers, among investors, or should we really not lose sight of the fact that the US is in fact the largest economy and a very, very significant player and likely to remain so.

25:32economist:Yeah, and the US isn't only the largest economy. It's also the largest consumer. So US accounts for roughly 15 % of global imports. And there's just no one who can replace the US consumer. And the US is a growing economy still. So you can trade more with China, but China has a huge surplus,$1.2 trillion. I don't see China replacing the US consumer. So if you're trying to sell goods and countries seem to prefer exporting to importing, it's really hard to find a substitute for the US.

26:15Felicity Hannah:I could carry on this chat until six o 'clock. I find it all so interesting, but we can't. We do have to go to the news in a moment. So I'm just going to go around all four of you. And I just want to hear your outlook, how you're feeling, your optimism, your pessimism, what you think, what you hope. Caroline, let's put you on the spot and start with you. As a former global director of trade, investment and competitiveness at the World Bank, what is your view? How is this all going to shake down?

26:45economist:Well, I don't think we're going to go back to the period in the past of kind of very stable, predictable trade. But where I'm optimistic is I think the Supreme Court ruling, as well as many polls showing the majority of Americans are opposed to tariffs, more so than in the past. I feel like the political tide may be turning in the U.S. Congress may take back some of its power. And hopefully the guardrails get a bit higher and there is more predictability for especially the people who are on this show talking about how their own businesses are being affected. And I think it's been so much harder for small businesses to absorb these shocks than the big Amazons and Walmarts.

27:36economist:So hopefully we're getting a little bit more stability and maybe the political tide is turning.

27:42UK Bafta award winner:Jane, your view? Well, you know, I would agree with all of that. But and also just to really underscore the point that despite all of the uncertainty and we will have, I think, bigger ranges traded on asset prices as a result of the uncertainty. But despite that, we've got to remember that the US does still show better growth than many of its G10 peers and high levels of productivity as well. And it is, of course, the epicenter of the AI boom. And irrespective of where prices you think prices should be for AI stocks, it is a good technology. It is likely to boost productivity and growth in the US.

28:21UK Bafta award winner:And, you know, like we've just already heard, the consumer is the consumer of last resort, if you like, in the US. Higher percentage of consumption as a percentage of GDP. It's still a good place for many customers or many firms to invest in if you can get through this period of uncertainty right now.

28:40Felicity Hannah:Simon, you seem, I think, pretty, pretty chipper, despite some of the difficulties that we've been talking about. What's your outlook? Yes.

28:49US business owner:Well, I'm a salesman at heart, so I'm always positive. And I think with a lot of this, you've got to look for where the opportunity is. And the decline of the US dollar means that sourcing in the US becomes more of a viable prospect. But we can't – your previous caller mentioned that we should look to other markets. And indeed, we're a global company, so we are. But 40 percent of our revenue is the USA. And you can't ignore that. You can't ignore some of the magnificent high tech opportunities that are there. So you just have to adapt and overcome. And any business will adapt and find the opportunities within adversity.

29:32Felicity Hannah:Cassie, any business will adapt and find the opportunities. I feel like some of the opportunities that our guests have just outlined don't necessarily kind of pertain to your business. What's your outlook?

29:45UK Bafta award winner:You're catching me at a fairly pessimistic moment. You know, like one of your guests said, it could be a really lengthy process to file for refunds. And as a small business, I mean, we have 10 employees. We don't have a legal team. We don't have in-house trade and compliance people. So, you know, the work and the distraction it will take to recoup those tariffs, those illegal tariffs. I mean, I hope that there's a simpler solution for a small business, but I'm not optimistic that there will be. And just the volatility and the constant bait and switch that we experienced last year. Like, I don't know that my team can weather that again.

30:28UK Bafta award winner:I don't know that I can weather that again. It took a huge emotional toll. And yeah, I mean, I believe in my business, but we are a U.S. business that serves U.S. consumers first and foremost. And so too many of our eggs are in one basket at this point. And yeah, I mean, I hope we get to the midterms and there's a swinging in the political landscape that has a little bit more authority to sort of divide the branches of government and stand up to the executive branch in a more meaningful way.

31:02Felicity Hannah:I think one thing that you really demonstrate is that we're talking about the drama and we're talking about global trade and we're talking about big numbers. Actually, this all comes down to businesses like yours and bosses like you and founders like you trying to make it work against a really tricky backdrop. It's been very tricky, very tricky.

31:20UK Bafta award winner:I'm ready for some normalcy.

31:22Felicity Hannah:Well, Cassie, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you, all of you. That was a really enlightening half an hour. Cassie Abel, founder and CEO of Wild Rye. Thank you. Caroline Freund, Dean of the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California. Thank you very much as well. Simon Kenny from Goodfellow. Jane Foley from Rabobank. Stick around. There is lots more to talk about. Let's just have a few of your cheap, small spends, big pleasures. Angus in Edinburgh says, My small luxury is California white sage incense to stimulate. What are you doing to me, Angus? To stimulate the olfactory scents around my house.

31:58Felicity Hannah:My guests love it. Michael says, I'm a sad older person, but a holiday bed, clean and fresh white linen. Oh, I love it. And it's not too expensive. No time to iron bedding.

32:10US business owner:If there was a big red button that would just demolish the internet,

32:15UK Bafta award winner:I would smash that button with my forehead. From the BBC, this is The Interface, the show that explores how tech is rewiring your week and your world. This isn't about quarterly earnings or about tech reviews. It's about what technology is actually doing to your work, your politics, your everyday life, and all the bizarre ways people are using the internet. Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts. Wake Up to Money with Felicity Hanna.

32:47Felicity Hannah:Good morning. If you're just joining us on Wake Up To Money, welcome to Monday. Welcome to a lot of conversations. We're about to talk about jobs. We're going to talk about the BAFTAs. We're going to talk about the state of the British film industry. Loads and loads I want to hear from you about this morning. But I'm also asking you, what is your smallest spend for biggest pleasure? What's the smallest amount you can spend for just an outsized moment of enjoyment? Because I have been I've just been loving the one pound bunches of daffodils all weekend. I put them in my home and every time I look at them, I feel really, really cheerful.

33:20Felicity Hannah:So I've been asking you for yours this morning. Peter in Cambridge says, as a cabbie, filling up with petrol and coffee every morning is my expensive pleasure. Not what I'm asking for, Peter, but I'll go with this. He says, I can't believe the price per litre and that's just the coffee. Peter, thank you for that. Let me see. Sarah on Blue Sky says,£1.29 to have a pint of milk on the doorstep in time for Wake Up To Money. A tiny bit less plastic waste and a bucket more milky coffee. Thank you for that. Johnny says, OK, not a tiny expense. We're a big family and we do our own washing. I have enough clothes and a big enough laundry basket to get me through two weeks.

33:55Felicity Hannah:Then I take it to the washeteria. I've never heard that word. 200 yards away and get a service wash and it all comes back clean, dry, folded, socks paired. Best£20 I've ever spent. Pairing socks. Yeah, that would be a very outsized pleasure for a relatively small outlay. Get in touch. Let me know your thoughts on this or on everything. You can text me on 85058. You can send me a WhatsApp message on 08085 909693. And as we've just heard, you can use the hashtag WakeUpToMoney on social media. I will keep an eye on that. But I do want to know as well how hiring is looking, where you are, for your industry.

34:34Felicity Hannah:Because last month was the worst January for hiring in five years. That's according to a report published by Adzuna this morning. It follows a similar warning from another closely watched survey on Friday. But it's worth noting that the official statistics show a somewhat more stable picture of the jobs market. So it's interesting to find out sort of what it's like in specific areas. Because according to Edzuna, hiring activity saw an especially steep decline in the logistics and warehouse sector, which fell by nearly a fifth month on month. Let's talk to Mike Harrison, who's Managing Director of Transglobal Logistics UK Limited, which is a logistics company in the town of Mildenhall in Suffolk.

35:18Felicity Hannah:Mike, good morning.

35:19US business owner:Good morning, Felicity. How are you this morning?

35:21Felicity Hannah:Well, I think after I sort of chewed over the mouthful of your company name, you better explain what it is that you do.

35:28US business owner:Yes, well, we've been around since about 2008. We are in a very niche market. we basically ship and do logistics for vehicles, yachts, boats all those kind of boys toys actually but we have a contract with the US military as well and with that we have a warehouse and we do logistics all over the world we have noticed also that we're based in Suffolk So, you know, the report that you just mentioned, we do see actually a reduction in logistics jobs over the certainly over our area. And we believe or I believe this is part of business confidence. Costs are going up. it's difficult now to look forward and have a view on how to invest in the business.

36:38US business owner:Certainly, we see lots of things happening in the world, which really push us in a logistics sense to be a bit cautious, certainly with what's happening out with global insecurity.

36:56Felicity Hannah:It feels very much like more of the conversation we've just been having, I suppose, about tariffs and that business desire for certainty. So tell me then, what's happening, Mike? Are you as a business recruiting less? Because if you look at the Adzuna data, logistics and warehouses jobs had the steepest decline of any major sector, down more than 17 % month on month. And at the same time, warehouse worker became the UK's most searched for roles. So that does suggest that this is businesses just saying, haven't got the jobs made.

37:31US business owner:To some extent, yes, I think that is a true statement. I think what we see, and we're not, you know, we're a relatively small company compared to someone like Amazon. And Amazon, they've reduced their staff at levels, I think, over the last year. We certainly look for people, but I think the numbers of people that we actually look for are less and less because we think there's a general scaling back in the market. are, again, back to the insecurity. And businesses need confidence and clarity in the market to be able to look forward to employ people. But at the same time, companies are being more efficient, so they're looking at efficiencies and driving that through the business.

38:25US business owner:We're still suffering somewhat from a UK recovery, partly due to Brexit, because that caused a lot of confusion in the shipping and logistics market. But I think generally speaking, certainly what we see in Suffolk is that I think people are more cautious. Business confidence needs to really grow in this area of the business.

38:50Felicity Hannah:When you are looking to hire, how easy is it to find the right people to work within your business?

39:01US business owner:we we we specifically look for quite uh talented individuals i suppose um because we we run a fairly tight ship in terms of the number of people that we have and the multi-functionality that they that they are uh having to do every day so uh it's not that easy i would say where we're located in Suffolk we we're not in the main port of Felix though we're not you know any anywhere close to an airport so we have to look at training and one of the the big things that I I think the UK needs to look further into is is more apprenticeships in this particular field we we work with uh eastern education which is uh based in berris and edmunds and we we try to look for keen young apprentices perhaps they don't want to go to university um that they want to formulate a career you know after they've done their a levels and we look for that sort of individual to train through the business because it's it's quite difficult to learn our business without a hands-on approach.

40:17Felicity Hannah:And do you find those more affordable as well in terms of staff to bring on?

40:21US business owner:Well, I mean, we pay quite well, I think, for an apprentice position. I think what we're, we're giving someone a career. I've travelled all around the world, lived in lots of countries, I've worked in the industry for 35 years. So there is a career there if people have the willingness to put their heart and soul into it, I would say.

40:51Felicity Hannah:Mike, stay with me. I'm going to just bring in Simon Kenny, Chief Executive of the Advanced Materials Maker Goodfellow, who's been listening along, is joining me throughout the programme today. Simon, what are you seeing in your quite specialist sector in terms of hiring and jobs and availability of talent?

41:07US business owner:I think we're probably a beneficiary of the real focus on STEM over the last few years, we hire some pretty specialist roles right through from material scientists to language speakers because we operate globally from our site in Huntingdon. And we don't really... I think where we are geographically, just north of Cambridge, is quite an advantage. We're not in Cambridge, so we're not in that melee of competing for talent. but we're sufficiently out to be able to recruit from the nearby towns and cities. So we, and interesting to your other guest Mike, he said he talked about bringing people through the business and we do a lot of that.

41:54US business owner:We like to take on graduates and we like to then promote from within because you get people that truly understand what is quite a complex business from the ground up.

42:04Felicity Hannah:OK, and let's just briefly bring in Jane Foley as well, head of FX strategy at Rabobank. Because, Jane, this is the second survey to suggest a sort of weakening in hiring. It is not the only survey. And as I say, the government figures show a slightly different, slightly more stable picture. But what we're hearing from Mike and again from Simon, it's that sort of concerns about uncertainty that do make this a really tricky time for employers to confidently grow.

42:38UK Bafta award winner:Well, I mean, what the official data tell us is that the UK unemployment rate is at its highest rate really since around about the pandemic. So not as high as if you go back to, say, the 90s recession or the 80s recession, where there was a huge amount more of supply of labour. we are now in an area where the baby boomers have mostly retired and and and there is less labor so the unemployment rates aren't as high in a cyclical downturn however you know what is really worrying and what sort of times of what both your guests are saying is within that the the young person's unemployment rate you know the 16 to 24 year olds unemployment rate is particularly high you know and the survey that we've been just seeing this morning again talks about graduate jobs, vacancies, those jobs, those been advertised, you know, really low.

43:29UK Bafta award winner:And, you know, coming back to your point about or your discussion about apprentices, you know, I know from experience that young people these days will bite employers' hands off for a good apprenticeship programme. And, of course, the government is supporting apprenticeship programmes. that there is a apprenticeship levy on all firms of a certain size, which then firms get back if they then support an apprentice. And so the difficulty that young people, the competition that young people face trying to get, say, a degree apprenticeship right now is really, really tough. It's much easier to go to university.

44:11Felicity Hannah:Mike, I can hear you agreeing.

44:14US business owner:I think it's a very emotive subject, but I mean, my feeling is from all the apprentices that we look at and, you know, we've been successful in having apprentices in the business. I think the understanding of logistics is a complicated one. So I think, in my opinion, that the apprenticeship is a great vehicle for getting a young person into employment and with a great future. But I think in the country, there's this lack of understanding about what shipping and logistics and freight forwarding. And there are so many different terms that they don't really understand that. There are not that many apprenticeships in the actual industry.

45:09US business owner:BFA, the International Freight Forwarders Association, they have been promoting this for a number of years now. And we've been very successful in employing an apprentice and worked through, and he now runs our import department. But I think the understanding, and given that the UK is a net importer of goods, there needs to be a much better understanding, and that perhaps needs to come from the government, about what logistics and freight forwarding and shipping is all about, because it really is the lifeblood of the nation, really.

45:54Felicity Hannah:Mike you make a really good point and perhaps one that we only learn about when things start to go wrong that's when we're like hang on a minute there's loads of people working in this vital sector Mike thank you so much for joining us bright and early on Wake Up To Money

46:07US business owner:That's a pleasure thank you

46:08Felicity Hannah:Mike Harrison there Managing Director of Trans Global Logistics UK Limited which is a logistics company in Suffolk really really fascinating chat lots of you getting in touch with your thoughts on jobs Brendan says unfortunately we carry a very large part time workforce which distorts the unemployment numbers giving false unemployment numbers part-time workers equals part-time unemployed brendan thank you very much for that and brendan thank you for the christmas card by the way really appreciated that uh right let's talk about something completely different because it was the 79th annual bafta awards last night we're going to get you better next to no time johnny d it's called tourette syndrome say things

46:48UK Bafta award winner:that shouldn't. What can you do?

46:50Felicity Hannah:That was the UK film I Swear and the voice of Robert Aramayo. He beat international stars Timothee Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio to land best lead actor for his role as John Davidson. And what better praise for his performance than this from the real John Davidson, whose experience as someone living with Tourette's syndrome was at the centre of I Swear.

47:12US business owner:It's absolutely surreal. Quite overwhelming as well. Watching myself, you know, watching the film and seeing Rob play such a charismatic role, he was just absolutely amazing. You know, he got my tics, my mannerisms, my walk, everything down to a tee. And it was like watching myself on the screen, you know.

47:33Felicity Hannah:That's just brilliant, isn't it, to hear him. Georgia Bailiff is a producer at Tempo Productions, which worked on the BAFTA-winning film, I swear. Georgia, good morning. Morning. I suppose the first thing to say is congratulations.

47:47UK Bafta award winner:Yes, thanks so much. It was a fantastic night. We're really thrilled with the turn of events and really proud of Rob. So we just really feel privileged that he was recognised in the way he was last night.

47:57Felicity Hannah:I mean, it must have been something really, really special to see him land that, the big acting award. There's really not much, much better.

48:05UK Bafta award winner:No, I mean, incredible. There were so many heavyweights in that category, new and old, you know, newcomers like Timothee Chalamet. I mean, he's been around for eight years, but, you know, he's young in his craft. And then Leonardo DiCaprio and Ethan Hawke and Jesse Plemons, these incredible actors. So, I mean, we knew what the performance was like seeing him every day on set and, you know, how much he worked at his craft. But it doesn't mean that the achievement is any, you know, the less. So, yeah, we're just really proud of him.

48:31Felicity Hannah:And you can also be proud that I swear won Best Casting Award.

48:35UK Bafta award winner:Yes, incredible. I mean, Lauren Evans did a wonderful job and we had a great local casting director, Sophia Cargham as well. And it was just a wonderful team. Yeah, I think Peter Mullen, Shirley Henderson, Maxine Peake, and then newcomer Scott Ellis Watson were a really great ensemble cast. And I think, because these were all true, you know, they're real individuals. So I think it was really important that you cast people that could really drive the empathy and, you know, those kind of humble personal achievements that they made and, you know, how they helped John on his life story come to life.

49:07UK Bafta award winner:So, yeah, it's wonderful, really, that, you know, our peers kind of recognise that in Lauren's work.

49:14Felicity Hannah:Well, those are the really joyful questions. Now we're a business programme. Let's talk about the business. Talk to me about working on I swear. Did you have any idea that it was going to be the hit that it has been critically and commercially?

49:28UK Bafta award winner:Gosh, I think instincts is a big thing in our field. You know, Kirk sent us the first 30 pages. And I remember reading it and Piers Tempest, who runs Tempo Reddit, it and we knew there was something sort of intriguing and fresh it felt urgent you know the kind of story that it was telling um felt woke and un-woke at the same time and it did feel potentially commercial in the way that kirk jones had written it you know it's punchy it was tragic it was comedy um and it allowed you to sort of laugh in in the contexts that were completely unlaughable and never laughing at john so i think we knew there was something quite special tonally there.

50:03UK Bafta award winner:And also, you know, producing with Tempo, we're really focused on being cast driven. So when we find something like this, that's sort of a vehicle for really incredible acting talent. But it's a personal story that can sort of resonate on a global scale. I think we saw that maybe, you know, there was kind of a route to critical success. But you know, as you say, it's a business program. And I think attaching partners like Studio Canal is really essential. They're our distributor in the UK and sort of without their market expertise and the way that they strategize releasing the film you know they released the film wide which is huge it was on about 700 screens in the UK which really is unheard of for a small independent film and they really drove the film through word of mouth and with their sort of impeccable marketing and publicity team I think that's kind of what really helped the film reach the commercial success in the UK so as producers we really can't do that without our business partners.

50:59UK Bafta award winner:So they were incredible.

51:01Felicity Hannah:An important point, isn't it? Because getting funding for this film was not necessarily easy. You can't just go along and say, this is just brilliant, this is a great idea, it's really representing this important story. It's still tough to do.

51:13UK Bafta award winner:Oh, totally. I mean, I can say that for any independent film, funding's difficult. So regardless of the film, it's always an uphill battle. It's a sort of Sisyphean struggle. But yeah, for this one, it was a particularly unique endeavour. We definitely sent it to a couple of distributors and public funders, but didn't feel like we were really getting the traction that we wanted or the notes to sort of protect the integrity of the material, you know, what Kirk Jones put on the page. I think one sales agent even told us to remove some of the swearing, so we thought we really need to be creative.

51:42Felicity Hannah:But actually, just briefly, because we're almost out of time, but the director, Kirk Jones, actually put his house on the line to make the movie.

51:49UK Bafta award winner:He did. And it's not really something that we'd normally advise as a company, but I think when we thought we need to take creative control we decided right we're going to look at a budget level that we think we can make it at and get some private equity so when Kirk was able to do it we thought we really can have full control and really we felt that we could remove crucially all the finance fees, bond fees we didn't take any fees out of it as a production company which was quite unusual just made it very streamlined financially and then it was our job just to convert it from not being pinned down by the resource restraints and kind of making it a film that represented Kirk Jones' creative ambition.

52:27Felicity Hannah:Okay. Well, what a fantastic night. What a fantastic morning. What a fantastic film. Georgia, thank you so much for joining us. Oh, thanks for having me.

52:34UK Bafta award winner:Thanks so much. Thank you.

52:35Felicity Hannah:Georgia Bailiff there, producer at Tempo Productions, which worked on Icewear. What a successful night. Thank you to her. Thank you to Jane Foley from Rabobank. Thank you to Simon Kenny from Goodfellow. Thank you to you for your company, for your messages this morning, for starting off the week with Wake Up To Money. That's it for us.

52:52US business owner:Wake Up To Money from BBC 5 Live.

52:58Felicity Hannah:That's it from Wake Up To Money. Don't forget to subscribe on BBC Sounds or wherever you get your podcasts. And when you do, we'd love it if you'd leave us a review. You can also contact us anytime on social media using the hashtag WakeUpToMoney.

53:13UK Bafta award winner:A new era of Formula One is about to dawn. I think the biggest step the sport has ever seen.

53:20Felicity Hannah:There are new rules, new cars and a brand new team.

53:24UK Bafta award winner:In Formula One it's just absolute brutal pure competition.

53:27Felicity Hannah:And the next generation of star drivers are taking us along for the ride too.

53:32UK Bafta award winner:I'm going to go like a madman. If you want to make it first of all you have to believe that you have what it takes. The biggest shake-up of F1's rulebook has been years in the making.

53:40Felicity Hannah:Somebody's going to get it right and somebody's going to get it wrong. I'm Rosamund Pike and this is F1 Back at Base. A new era. Listen on BBC Sounds.

54:17UK Bafta award winner:life and all the bizarre ways people are using the internet. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

From the publisher

Felicity Hannah gets to the bottom of President Trump's new global tariffs. What will this mean for businesses and consumers in the US and elsewhere? We assess the fallout with a US business owner and an economist. And we find out why the warehouse and logistics sector is experiencing a fall in recruitment Also, we speak to one of the big homegrown UK winners at the Bafta awards to hear about what it takes to make a film in the UK.

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