Oil in troubled waters

24:58Yeah, and the purchasing power, I think, is going to be impacted. But also, as well, ironically, they seem to have shot themselves in the foot here. You know, unemployment is at 5.1 % and it's apparently going to shoot up to 5.5%, you know, purely as a result of what they've done here and the burden that they've put on businesses. So this kind of feels a little bit odd that they've done this and done this so quickly because the long-term impact, you know, on unemployment is obviously going to cost them more. And Douglas, are the government now stuck as well because of what's going on internationally, what we've been talking about in terms of trying to perhaps remedy some of those burdens, as Daniel puts it?

25:33Well, the public finances are going to be a little more stretched than they were. the government is going to have to pay probably a little bit more for its debt than it was. And tax receipts, they'll be looking very nervously in the Treasury at the level of tax receipts, because when growth goes down, tax receipts go down as well. And so that raises the prospect of more borrowing than the Chancellor was reckoning on, and just possibly brings into play the prospect of a breach of her fiscal rules. Now, they don't bite for a few more years, so there isn't necessarily an immediate problem. but they'll be thinking about that as well.

26:09In a way, the current crisis may give her a little bit of a get-out-of-jail-free part. If she has to amend or temporarily suspend the fiscal rules or something like that, she can do so and with some credibility blame things on external affairs. But nevertheless, you've got to be very careful these days that you don't upset the bond markets by trying to push your luck too far and borrow too much money. And on that unemployment picture, if you were advising this prime minister rather than the previous one, would that be ringing alarm bells, those figures that Daniel was talking about? Well, it would.

26:44And I think it's clear that a lot of burdens have been piled onto employers of youth labour, particularly in areas like the hospitality sector, a big user of young people. people. Now, one crumb of comfort here is that the rise in the national living wage this year has been a bit more modest than over the past few years. So it's just gone up by about 4%. Over the previous few years, that was more like the 7 % to 10 % range. So it's come back into a range to a level that is more in keeping with wage growth in the economy as a whole. And so that is something that may help employers to cope with it a little bit better than over the past few years.

27:28But still, you know, 4 % is still 4%. And if consumers are not spending, then finding even that level of money to fund pay rises can be difficult. So what would you do? Or are there things that you'd think about doing? Well, there can be initiatives in trading, for example, and dissemination of information to help people find jobs. But ultimately, you know, it's the private sector that creates jobs. The government can't do it for them. You've got to make sure that you've got a happy, thriving private sector. And that brings you back to things like tax increases. Business rates, for example, have just gone up.

28:06That's another change this year. And some of the discount schemes, some of the relief that was in place for smaller retail, hospitality and leisure businesses has been phased out. So changes like that, areas like that are areas where the government can sometimes do some good. But then that brings you back to the previous point that we were making about the state of the public finances and the need for the government to make sure that it is not putting itself in a position where it has to borrow a lot more money than it expected. As a result, it feels like it's a conundrum. We're on these panels, isn't it?

28:44I can see Daniel's itching to come in on that. We're going to talk about business rates in particular because it comes up in our chat with TGI Fridays actually in the second half of the programme. So we'll get you in on that there as well. But we'll say bye to Douglas and thank you as always for his time this morning as well because he's going to leave us now. Douglas McNeill, the former Chief Economic Advisor to the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. But plenty more from Daniel and Lindsay in the second half when, yes, we will hear from the man who's taken over all 33 of the remaining TGI Fridays restaurants around the UK.

29:10We're going to hear about those fuel protests in Ireland over what's been going on in the Middle East. And the chief exec of Surrey is going to join us live on the program before their first home game of the season in the county championship. And it's going to be one where you can work from the stands at the Oval. We shall explain all. My Amex Blue Cash Everyday card is my go-to accessory. When I shop, I can earn 3 % cash back on U.S. online retail purchases. Try on the Blue Cash Everyday card. Learn more at americanexpress.com slash explore dash BCE. Terms and cashback cap apply. Spring showers bring epic off-road adventures.

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30:38about the introduction of better Wi-Fi right around the Oval so that you can work from there while watching the county championship. Sound like a good idea or just a good marketing gimmick? 85058. Love to know what you think. Love to know if you're going to take advantage of it if perhaps you're in the South London or Kent, top of Sussex, kind of edge of Surrey kind of areas within striking distance of the Oval and what would get you back through the doors of TGI if you used to go there and don't anymore. 85058, as I say, is the text number. But if you want to join the conversation or perhaps you've got a question for our panel this morning or 08085 99693 is the WhatsApp number if you would prefer to get in touch that way.

31:16Well, let's head to the Republic of Ireland where the country is facing a fourth day of disruptions as protests over soaring fuel prices continue.

31:28Yeah, demonstrators have been blocking major roads, fuel depots and key sites, including the Whitegate Oil Refinery in Cork, which supplies around a third of the country's fuel. Garda, Ireland's police force, are saying that it's putting food and fuel supplies at risk and the army has been deployed to help clear vehicles from critical infrastructure. The Irish government has already introduced some tax cuts, but protesters want caps on the price of diesel and petrol. Melissa McGettigan runs McGettigan's Travel in Donegal. She led a convoy from there as part of the protests and she told Arneve McDermott why she was taking part.

32:04Well, as a bus and coach operator, we pay the full at the price pump. We don't get the 23 % fat back on the fuel. So our overheads have gone through the roof to a point where we're just wondering how we're going to afford to go back after the Easter break. I know the government did come with a small increase of the rebate, but, you know, they're basically, what the rebate is, you can apply from the rebate every quarter, and it's gone up to 12 cents per litre. That is nothing. Like, some of the pumps there now are up at 224. It's absolute madness. We have about 18 to 20 buses. It's a family-run business, so, I mean, we have uncles, we have brothers, my dad, my mum, we're all there, so we are together.

32:47We're hoping the government, you know, comes with something. They're sitting on a 17 billion surplus for a future Ireland fund. So they have the figures there to be able to come and say, right, we can give you a tax break. We can give you some kind of relief. You know, at the end of the day, there's so many private operators, even holliers, farmers. It's a chain reaction. And I don't know why they're not seeing the bigger picture of this. Melissa McGettigan of McGettigan's Travel in Donegal there. Well, let's speak to Kevin McPartland, CEO of Fuels for Ireland. Kevin, morning. Thanks for being with us.

33:20Morning, Will. So how serious is the disruption at this point then? It's pretty grave. The situation that we have as things stand, and there does seem to be a little bit of hope, but at the moment, three facilities, two fuel terminals, one in Galway, one in Foynes in County Limerick, and the only refinery we have in the country, which is in Whitegate and County Cork, have all been entirely blocked by fuel protesters. And look, I'd have a good deal of sympathy with their plight, as your contributor there said. You know, small businesses, hauliers, agricultural contracts, whatever, are paying huge price increases for fuel.

34:02And those increases on commodity markets have been greatly exacerbated by the very, very high level of tax that we pay in the Republic of Ireland. And to illustrate that, just to give you an example, that in Northern Ireland, the price differential before the initial attack on Iran was somewhere around 30 cents a litre, or that's 26 pence per litre. So your contributor there from Donegal, had she nipped across the border to Derry, would have been paying 26 pence less per litre of fuel than she was in the Republic. So we were paying a very, very high level of tax. And that's why this is hurting people so much.

34:38but the tactics I have to say I think they've got them wrong because we are now in a situation last night as I was heading to bed we had about 100 that's one in 15 of all of the forecourts in the country were out of stock if this continues for for the rest of today by close of business today we could have as many as 500 that would be a third of all of the of the forecourts in the country out of stock and that increases exponentially because what happens is somebody goes to a forecourt, finds there's no fuel, they keep going to the next one, the next one, until they find one. So the ones that do still have stock run out incredibly quickly.

35:15Yeah, more reports of potential panic buying this morning from RT and the National Broadcaster and others. I'm looking as well, Kevin, at some extraordinary pictures that we've got on our website of people walking down the side of the motorway in Dublin to get to the airport. So having an impact beyond just fuel availability as well, right, the blockades. Oh, well, I mean, once you go past just the fuel terminals, they have completely shut down O 'Connell Street. Anybody who's visited Dublin will have been to O 'Connell Street, I'm sure. Completely shut that down. The quays along the River Liffey have been shut down.

35:48There's been essentially rolling blockades along the major arterial routes since Tuesday of this week. So, yes, I mean, we did hear yesterday the government did say that the Guardia or police force had asked for the defence forces to work with them on a native civil power basis. That hasn't actually happened yet. There's been no deployment. And late last night on Prime Time, our sort of flagship current affairs programme, it was discussed that the protesters have been invited to a meeting today with some government ministers, which was one of their demands. but then the water quickly muddied when a minister from the government on the same programme said, well, we haven't invited them.

36:35We've invited representative bodies and if they bring these people, that's up to them, but we haven't invited them. So it's quite unclear, but I have to say I'm hopeful that that meeting this afternoon will lead to a lifting of the blockades because we really need to get fuel out. We're now at the situation where it's not just normal punters, It's not the likes of me and you going to visit our Auntie Mary that are being discombobulated. It's actually, you know, emergency services. It's, you know, critical workers getting to and from work. This needs to be resolved very quickly. Right, so it's urgent now.

37:11Oh, it really is. It's very grave. Kevin, thanks so much for your time this morning. Really appreciate it. And best of luck navigating all of that. Kevin McPartland there, the Chief Executive of Fuels for Ireland. Well, perhaps if you are travelling, I know a lot of you listening in Northern Ireland, perhaps are you travelling for work? if you come across this, 85058, we'd love to know your experiences, or 08085 909693, the WhatsApp there. Well, let's turn to TGI Fridays, shall we? Sure, many of you have celebrated a birthday, perhaps on an anniversary there over the years. The American-themed dining chain, a feature of lots of our towns and city centres, particularly from my memory, I don't know about you, Daniel, but in like sort of shopping centres and sort of cinema complexes and places like that, right?

37:52Retail parks. Yeah, exactly. Well, Ray Blanchett is the man tasked with turning things around for a brand that sort of had its heyday in the 90s and has been under tough times here in the UK since. He bought the 33 remaining UK restaurants out of administration in sorry, the overall chain out of administration. He bought 33 UK restaurants as a result in January of this year. And despite having to close 16 of its restaurants as part of that deal, he's got high hopes for turning it around. Here he is chatting to us. The last several years have been extremely challenged. I just believe that with the right leadership, taking great care of our team members, creating jobs that they're proud to have, it's likely to come back very, very strong.

38:34You told a story, I guess, of the wreckage that you found. Fridges turned off, all this kind of stuff. Could you believe the state it was in? No, that was unnerving because we're a brand that's been built on standards, right? We have the highest training standards and the food safety standards. And so when you walk in and see the business in disrepair, that's when we decided as a management team, maybe it's time for us to step in. Right. Rather than step away. No, no, no, no. It's too important of a business. We can't step away. And what convinced me, Will, is Phil Broad, the president of Fridays and I, we were driving around the UK.

39:11I think we drove sort of 800 or 900 miles in two or three days just visiting restaurants. And you can see the team members sort of hanging on to the old culture by their fingernails. And when I saw that the culture was still there and they still want to take great care of their guests, they wanted to serve food that they were proud of. They wanted to sell experiences that they were proud of and celebrate people in the way they were accustomed to. That's really what kind of gave me the courage. I thought, we still have the base here. We can build off of this. How do you build on that? In some areas, you sort of look back and go, what are those things that we've always done that are still relevant to today around how we recognize our team members, celebrate them doing things right rather than try and catch them doing things wrong?

39:55We believe that the guest experience will never exceed the team member experience. So we kind of put our teams first so that they will then go out and put the guests first. I mean, the way you treat your team members is the way they're going to treat the guests is what we believe. And so I thought if we do that and we bring that culture back and then do our job correctly, innovating new food and making sure that the food that's on the menu is freshly prepared, served at pace. I mean, those are the things that we're known for. And obviously, we know how to throw a party, right? We know how to celebrate those meaningful milestones in people's lives.

40:32And when you look at who the customer is today, they may have celebrated their seventh or eighth birthday with us. and now they have seven or eight year olds. So we have a whole new generation that's coming into TGI Fridays and we want to be there to help them celebrate. How nerve wracking then Ray to do that in the backdrop with here in the UK. I mean, John Vinson runs the Leon restaurants telling the Times newspaper, restaurants are done, restaurants are dead and that the government is killing them. Can you run restaurants against the current backdrop of the business landscape set out from a sort of government tax perspective?

41:03It's incredibly challenging right now, But I'm bullish in that we're a major employer in the UK. We create jobs that matter. We serve communities. And when a restaurant builds in a community, it lifts everybody up. I mean, it's from the guy delivering produce, the construction worker that builds the restaurant. I mean, every part of an economy is touched when you have a vibrant restaurant industry that's growing. And so at some point, common sense will prevail. There's no way that a restaurant industry as large as it is, is going to go away in the UK. But right now it is extremely challenging.

41:42But when you say common sense prevailing, what does that look like? What needs to happen? I know as an American right now saying that, you know, common sense in politics sounds a little foolish. But we've been through cycles like this. Like I said, when you've been in this business for a long time, you've seen the ups and downs. And for us, we want to weather the storm. people are going to vote ultimately for an economy that's growing, that's creating opportunities for people, that's creating jobs. If there was sort of one thing rather than all the things that you could tinker with, perhaps. I would like to see a level playing field, especially as it relates to tax.

42:18I don't think the pub industry is any different than the restaurant industry. We have the same type of P &L. We essentially serve the public exactly the same way. So I would like to see parity and responsible taxes. I'd much rather see the tax base be predicated on a growing economy where you're creating more jobs, you're expanding your tax base. So you're talking about business rates here, right? Absolutely. That's Ray Blanchett there, the chief exec of Sugarloaf Holdings, the owners of the TGI Fridays restaurants here in the UK. Daniel, we did a lot of those kind of changes in the second half of that interview in the first half of the programme.

42:50People can whiz back on sounds and listen to that there. But business rates is one we didn't quite get to and you were itching to come in on. I'm guessing you echo what Ray Blanchett was saying there. Yeah, it's really unfair. And what they've done with relief and how it's been kind of engineered in that they're trying to make out it's fair really isn't. And we're seeing a massive increase in those business rates. And to operate a permanent site, a fixed site, bricks and mortar out there is costing exponentially more than it was two months ago. so that impact again is going to impact not only the consumer but also your staffing the amount of people you're able to employ because you have to cut back and one of the things that came back earlier was about training and how you develop you know to grow your workforce and educate and skill them but when your overheads are increasing as they are the things need to get cut back and usually what gets cuffed back is those soft skills those things that you would normally invest in like training, those are the things that then your employers begin to miss out on because you can't afford to do them.

43:46Right. So that's the thing. They're the things that get squeezed. They're the things that are the nice to haves, actually. Absolutely. And, you know, on any P &L, they are the nice to have. So the bits that you will always chip away at if you need to find a way of making a saving. And it's unfair on those people that you employ because ultimately they're looking to learn and grow with you as their employer. And you want to be able to give them those skills. should say, reviewing business rates in the whole, was in the Labour Party manifesto. Keep saying it's going to happen. We'll be interested to have the government on to tell us all about it.

44:15If and when they do launch their sort of plans for what that would look like. Lindsay, more broadly, we actually got to it in some of the stuff that hit the cutting room floor a bit in that interview with Ray Blanchett, but isn't that sort of elephant in the room a bit here that people have moved away from some of these brands a little bit? the casual dining sector has been a bit of a bit of a wreckage for multiple years now. Yeah, I think that's right. I think this started to really change in the years actually running up to the pandemic. Well, I remember we saw some of the major restaurant brands in the UK owned by the restaurant group really, really being hit by all the cost factors that have been touched on.

44:56But this has been long, long term, if you like. But there's changing trends as well in place. You know, there's a lot more appetite for people to order at home. And I think when you add up all the other costs for going out, whether that's babysitters or, you know, transport and all sorts of other things, then, you know, there's a lot of reasons why people just aren't to the same extent. Well, Daniel, you were making that point while the tape was going out, wasn't it? These restaurants aren't that cheap anymore either for a family, say, to go to. No, you know, the perception of casual dining was always that it was relatively inexpensive.

45:28It was a nice meal out, whereas now you really do count the cost and it doesn't matter what brand it is. Ultimately, when that bill comes, it's a bit of a surprise because you didn't factor in certain costs and charges. But it's also as well this element in casual dining and people's habits have changed. You know, one for a later show in the month when the World Cup starts. But we can already see Deliveroo and all those other kind of companies gearing up when the matches kick in at 9 p.m. and they know because people will stay in and they're order in. They won't go out to enjoy that particular occasion with friends and family.

45:59So, you know, our habits and the way in which we decide to spend our money to celebrate occasions, actually, it happens at home a lot of the time as well. Yeah, whatever they say, that competition is at home. We've had a few of those bosses on and say, oh, we don't see that as competition. It's a different kind of thing. It doesn't seem to be borne out in the stats, does it? Both of you have just been saying there as well. Well, you tell us what you're seeing because it's you we're talking about and your spending power. 85058 is the text number 08085 909 693 if you would like to get in touch that way.

46:31We'd love to know your thoughts on our final item today. Would you fancy an office, for example, that sounded a bit like this? Yates is playing this one solidly. Now, from a Surrey perspective, they want to work it before lunch. Yeah, well, for Surrey County Cricket Club fans, a new remote working option has appeared that could make that a reality. And Steve Elworthy, the chief exec at Surrey, joined us on the programme as well. Morning, Steve. Morning, Will. How are you? Yeah, really good, thanks. So first home game of the season today, and you've got this super fast Wi-Fi. Yes, I know. It's funny enough, it's not been – this has been happening for a while, actually.

47:09It's not something groundbreaking or new. It's been happening at the club for quite a long time. and you know on my travels and walking around the ground or the members forums over the course of the last couple of years it's been mentioned to me a few times that why don't we sort of why don't we promote it a bit more it's you know we see people with on laptops in the stands and on the terraces on Fridays and Saturdays Sundays and Mondays you know Champo Cricket is particularly Friday to Monday so I thought we thought this was a really good opportunity to maybe to try and drive some more people to watch one of the greatest Red Bull competitions in the world.

47:51So it's certainly something we've invested in. We've put in super high-speed Wi-Fi. We've made areas available so people can come down and watch. So as I said, it's not new, but I think it's just a bit more of a push to try and get a few people down, which would be great. How in your mind does it work kind of perfectly? If it was you, if you were sort of, I don't know, running your own company or chief exec like Daniel was? You're coming in and you're doing a couple of hours work and then watching a bit and doing a couple of hours work or you're sort of tinkering away on the emails in the background?

48:20How are you perceiving people to use it? Yeah, I think it's up to every individual. You know, I think there are lots of people out there. You know, there's thousands of people every day in London that are looking for dedicated workspaces. And we're saying come along to the Oval and, you know, it's an option. The backdrop is just a game of cricket in the background. We start at 11 in the morning and we continue on to sort of 6.30, 7 in the evening. And it's a short walk to the bar as well. Or the coffee shop as well. It's not too far down the road, exactly. It's all right, right, if it was like it was on Wednesday, belting sunshine in South London.

48:55It's a bit different if you've got the forecast that you've got for the weekend, though, isn't it? Yeah, it is a little bit. It is a little bit. I'm sure we'll see a few people wrapped up over the course of the weekend. But, you know, this is a, I suppose it's a long burn. You know, we've had, last year we had around about 80 odd thousand people come and watch County Champ, more than 80 ,000 people come and watch our seven County Championship home games. And we want to try and beat that record again this year. So, you know, I'm going to be a huge advocate of anything. And so it doesn't really matter if they're not fully, fully engaged.

49:27You just think if you get them in there, that what, they will might come back and watch it, watch it as a fan as well. Yes, exactly. Exactly. You know, these are potentially people who may come. You know, there might be people who've never thought of the Oval and cricket as an option. And suddenly, you know, there's cricket going on in the background and there might be in the future. So, you know, I think we've got to look at all ways of exploring. There might be a membership. It might be tickets further down the line. So, you know, I think we just got to be a little bit more open to getting people down to the ground.

49:58Well, Daniel here in the studio with me, been to the Oval a lot of times for events, you were saying, not for the cricket. What do you make of Steve's pitch? for the cricket too but I think it's great I think it's a lovely soundtrack you know it's a really calming soundtrack to be working against the backdrop of cricket I know it's really nice you've probably become more productive you should put that into the marketing spin as well as a result of it but I think it's great I mean the only thing I can see here is then how do you control the noise because if people want to make phone calls and then do video calls etc isn't that going to interrupt for those die hard cricket fans that have really come to watch the match yeah well listen I think what But where we've positioned a couple of these terraces, they're sort of mid-tier.

50:37They're a little bit higher up. And they're sort of dedicated spaces. So you're not potentially going to have too many spectators around you. If you've decided you want to sit in the stand and do some work, you're probably not going to take your call there. You might have to head off into the concourse in the back and maybe do that. So, you know, because we get a roundabout between three and a half, 4 ,000 to six and a half, 7 ,000 on a match day, the Oval, there's enough space to find places to go and make a call. So I think it should be absolutely fine just so long as people manage that themselves.

51:12Yeah. Yeah. So if I'm watching Jamie Smith bat, I certainly don't want my wife typing behind me. She's like the Kermit gift banging away on those when I hear her working from home. Lindsay, what do you make of this as an idea? I think it's terrible. Oh, no. I mean, I'm not a cricket fan, so that's probably one of the issues here. But the reason why is that time and time again, people with genuine reasons to want to work remotely, whether that's their health or whether that's the fact that childcare and holidays is nine till three and not eight till six. You know, they are constantly having to fight back from companies who are saying you need to be back in the office.

51:45And media who are often saying if you're working from home, you're not working very hard. and unfortunately you know these sorts of measures just kind of give them ammunition to say that great if it's a bit of fun in the summer on a Friday or if you work for yourself and you're having a quiet day but I think for most people with proper jobs it's a non-starter. Steve just while we've got you in the last couple of minutes as well your first home game of the season as well and presumably there's a serious bit beyond this kind of serious point that Lindsay's making as well there's a serious element to this too in that the finances of of county cricket it's always interesting to get kind of a perspective from you guys because you are financially the most stable in the country there's been more kind of wreckage hasn't there through the summer Middlesex and Sussex among those struggling financially what is the kind of health as you as you see it as we kind of begin another season or a week into another season yeah are you specifically talking about just across the game yeah and I mean kind of the county championship as well I mean we've covered the hundred money a lot of times but is that making a difference at county championship level for the counties themselves?

52:46I think so. Listen, we have a review meeting with the ECB, where funnily enough, we had ours yesterday. And, you know, I think, and as you've spoken about the hundred money there, that does shore up a lot of the county's balance sheets. But, you know, I think one of the key elements for me around the finances of the game is we've had this, we've had this injection in the middle of a broadcast cycle of just over half a billion pounds. And we need to safeguard that money so that we can keep making sure that we've got sustainable businesses going forward, as you say, whether it's the middle six of the world and Sussexes of the world.

53:26And I think it's the way the money is going to be spent is really critical for us. There are a number of places that are struggling, but it's all relative. We're a very big club but it's a very thirsty ground and a very thirsty club so you know we've just got to make sure we spend the money properly well good luck today i hope there's not too many people on their laptops and thanks for speaking to us steve wellworthy the boss of surrey there big thanks to daniel and to lindsey as well bbc sounds music radio podcasts

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