In short
The episode of BBC Radio 5 Live’s Wake Up To Money covers UK politics and markets, plus business impacts and consumer costs. It discusses Andy Burnham’s first-priority speech as Prime Minister: he argues the UK’s problems stem from centralized political power, privatized economic power, de-industrialisation, austerity, and Brexit’s low-growth effects. Kemi Badenoch criticizes Burnham as proposing more taxes and government control. Freddie Cahoon (JM Finn) says rising UK gilt yields limit “headroom” for spending; he links bond pressure to global factors (oil, El Niño, and US rate expectations). Lord Jim O’Neill suggests reforming the pension “triple lock” and welfare spending to reduce borrowing costs. Ethan Wu (The Economist, Singapore) explains Japan’s 10-year yield hitting 3% as a psychological threshold signaling renewed inflation, driven by weak yen and oil-price risks; he notes Japan’s AI/semiconductors investment plan (370 trillion yen) but limited fiscal space.
Guests
Annabelle Thomas (Nookneen Whiskey, Scotland distillery; exports to US/India/Japan) and Freddie Cahoon (JM Finn investment director), plus Ethan Wu (The Economist Asia finance editor) and Chris Weatherspoon (The Athletic football finance writer).
Notable examples
whiskey tariff removals (US), Japan udon price “200 to 300 yen,” and Premier League transfers over £3bn. Also: England’s branded uniform limits (max three items) and a Bedfordshire shop manager’s view that branded sports-kit items are being dropped, potentially shifting prices toward generic blazers/jumpers.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOEconomic Priorities and Current Events
1:30 to 2:52
Discussion on the Prime Minister's economic priorities and current economic events.
“The new Prime Minister gave us more on his economic priorities as Parliament returned yesterday.”
School Uniforms and Affordability
2:52 to 4:50
Exploring the impact of new limits on branded school uniforms and their affordability.
“So children are held back to school, pupils are going back to school and new limits on branded uniform come into force in England.”
Introductions to Guests
4:50 to 6:00
Introduction of Annabelle Thomas and Freddie Cahoon, discussing their backgrounds and insights.
“But perhaps for businesses, that is not the case.”
Discussion on Tariffs and Whiskey Market
6:00 to 7:18
Annabelle shares insights on tariffs affecting the whiskey market and business opportunities.
“All right, well, let's talk about Andy Burnham because he set out his priorities yesterday in his first address to Parliament as Prime Minister.”
Andy Burnham's Economic Address
7:18 to 9:10
Analysis of Andy Burnham's address to Parliament regarding economic challenges.
“Now in response, Conservative leader Kemi Badenok accused Burnham of offering more government control, more taxes and more politicians.”
Effects of High Borrowing Costs
9:10 to 11:30
Panel discusses high borrowing costs and the implications for the UK economy.
“and gave a buffer of about£20 billion based on the figures from the budget last year, as the yield on these government bonds goes up and up, then that headroom just is shrinking on a daily basis.”
Business Perspectives on Government Spending
11:30 to 14:00
Guests share their views on government spending and its impact on businesses.
“And it's, you know, at this current trajectory, that triple lot will become unaffordable over the coming years.”
The Role of Government Spending in Business
14:00 to 15:06
Discussion on the impact of government spending via councils on businesses and the focus on balancing budgets.
“He wants to give councils more money, seriously.”
Japan's Rising Bond Yields Explained
15:07 to 16:54
Analysis of Japan's 10-year government bond yields and their implications for investors and the economy.
“And we've had a lot of that over the last few years.”
Inflation and the Weak Yen's Impact
16:55 to 21:56
Exploration of inflation in Japan and the effects of a weak yen on the economy and household costs.
“And now, again, with this current rally in yields, I mean, we've seen energy hit the Japanese economy once again.”
Show all 22 chapters
Japanese Consumer Confidence and Spending
21:57 to 23:41
Examining the effects of inflation on Japanese consumer confidence and spending habits.
“And when you talk about inflation pinching households, what are things looking like for the average person now?”
The Whiskey Market and Economic Challenges
23:42 to 28:00
Discussion on the whiskey market in Japan, currency impacts, and challenges in selling products abroad.
“Now, Freddie, I mean, it's important to say Japanese government are, you know, Japan, it is such a huge market in terms of it's one of the biggest sources of investment capital, isn't it?”
Impact of Fuel Costs on Business
28:00 to 28:42
Learn how rising transport costs affect businesses operating in the fossil fuel industry.
“If you're exporting, you've got those transport costs.”
School Uniforms and Personal Expression
28:42 to 30:15
Discussing the relevance of school uniforms in modern education and personal identity.
“Well, we're going to be talking a lot more about football transfer spending in the second half of the programme.”
Discussing School Uniforms Cost
30:19 to 31:14
Exploring the costs associated with school uniforms and opinions from listeners.
“Morning, welcome back to Wake Up To Money.”
Workplace Uniforms and Dress Code
31:14 to 32:52
Examining the concept of uniforms in both whiskey distillation and financial industries.
“I mean, Freddie, in the city, I'm sure there is a uniform of sorts.”
Football Transfer Spending Surge
32:52 to 36:29
Analyzing the recent surge in football transfer spending and its implications.
“Well, let's talk about football transfer spending because the transfer window in England and Wales is now closed and it was a big one.”
Financial Sustainability in Football
36:29 to 42:00
Understanding the financial dynamics and sustainability issues within football clubs.
“So the Premier League's TV deal, like its domestic TV deal, is so much bigger than anywhere else.”
Football Finance and Player Wages
42:00 to 45:52
Exploration of the financial challenges in football and the impact of player wages on clubs and fans.
“I quite like companies that pay dividends.”
Investment Risks in Business
45:52 to 46:40
Discussion on the balance between sensible investment and reckless spending in business, particularly in football.
“All right, Chris Weatherspoon, football finance writer for The Athletic.”
School Uniform Costs and Regulations
46:40 to 51:21
Insight into the financial implications of school uniforms for families and changes in government regulations.
“We are going to talk about school uniforms now.”
Impact on Local Uniform Shops
51:21 to 53:25
Discussion with a shop manager about the effects of new uniform regulations on local businesses and pricing.
“Well, yeah, well, we have to, I don't really know yet.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK.
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1:29Leanna Byrne:Hello, welcome to Wake Up To Money. The new Prime Minister gave us more on his economic priorities as Parliament returned yesterday. Political power was centralised. Economic power privatised. The country de-industrialised. We'll dig into all of what Andy Burnham had to say with today's panel. We'll also get you all the latest on the big sell-off on government debt. Number 10 advisor Jim O 'Neill has told the BBC things like the triple lock and welfare spending should be reined in to relieve pressure. Elsewhere, football's transfer deadline day has passed and Premier League clubs have spent more than ever.
2:09Leanna Byrne:We'll look at why and whether this is sustainable. And finally, the beginning of September means new school uniforms for millions of pupils. We'll find out how a change in what people have to buy is affecting small retailers. Wake Up To Money from BBC Radio 5 Live.
2:51Leanna Byrne:of my school uniform. So children are held back to school, pupils are going back to school and new limits on branded uniform come into force in England. So will that make the start of term more affordable? It might, it might not. If you have any thoughts on school uniforms in general, you can get in touch with us. Text 85058 or WhatsApp 08085 909693. Well, let me introduce Annabelle Thomas, founder and chief executive of Nookneen Whiskey. Their distillery is based on the west coast of Scotland. Annabelle, good morning. Good morning. Very nice to be here. Yeah, thanks so much, Anna, for being here.
3:28Leanna Byrne:I believe it's been a little while since we had you on the programme. When was the last time you came on? It has. A little while, so I'm very happy to be back. That's good. All right. We also got Freddie Cahoon, Investment Director at JM Finn. Good morning, Freddie. Morning, Leanna. Good to be back. Yeah. Freddie, were you a fan of school uniforms? Yes, I was a fan of school uniforms. I've got two of my kids going back to school today as well. And it's quiet at the moment, but I'm sure it's going to get chaotic in a couple of hours. Annabelle, how about you? Did you have a school uniform back in the day?
4:03I did. I did. And I have to say, I haven't been following this story very closely until I heard about it yesterday. But I've also got two kids going back today. So, yeah, it is the topic of the moment.
4:14Leanna Byrne:I didn't mind my school uniform, actually. I liked the idea of not having to make the decision for what to get dressed in. So I had all these dreams. I still miss that idea as an adult. I know. I had all these dreams about my school uniform. Now, it looked terrible. And looking back in photographs myself, oh, my God. But I didn't have to make any decisions, which at this hour of the morning isn't such a bad thing. Well, Annabelle, Bell, I think the last time we spoke, I've got a note here to say tariffs were a big concern for you at that point. Is that still the case? Because I feel as if in business news speak, we've almost moved on a little bit from tariffs.
4:53Leanna Byrne:But perhaps for businesses, that is not the case. Yeah, well, I can understand that everyone might have got a bit bored of them. Yeah, it's been a bit of a roller coaster on tariffs. The US tariffs have been covered a lot and that has obviously gone through a bit of a rollercoaster in the US. They have now been taken off, which is great. So we are importing tariff free to the US and that is still a really big market for us. So that has been really positive. However, the news coverage showed that mostly as being a result of the King's visit to the US. but actually most of the tariff removal seems to have been driven by the ruling that they were illegal.
5:37So who knows what's really going on. The reality behind the scenes has not always matched what's been covered in the press but right now there are no tariffs on whiskey going into the US so I'm a happy bunny. And we also have the news that the tariffs on whiskey going into India will be reduced. They're still really high but they are at least coming down. So yeah, it all seems to be heading in the right direction.
5:59Leanna Byrne:Seems like lots of opportunities there actually. Absolutely. There you go. All right, well, let's talk about Andy Burnham because he set out his priorities yesterday in his first address to Parliament as Prime Minister. So let's take a listen to part of it. What I bring back to the House after 10 years away is a clear diagnosis of what has gone wrong. Let me lay it out clearly, particularly for the right honourable gentleman since he asked. From the 1980s, this country took a series of wrong turns. Political power was centralised, economic power privatised, the country de-industrialised, austerity followed, hollowing out councils and depriving them of the agency to act to reverse any of this.
6:51Then Brexit compounded the damage, ushering in a decade of low growth and stalled regeneration. Change begins with honesty, Mr Speaker. I'm not hearing much of it this afternoon. Unless we are blunt about what went wrong, we won't turn things around. Far from taking back control, the combination of these policies took control out of the hands of communities up and down
7:21Leanna Byrne:Now in response, Conservative leader Kemi Badenok accused Burnham of offering more government control, more taxes and more politicians. She said that his diagnosis is completely wrong, his theory of growth is completely wrong, and that he thinks that if government spends more money, we will all get richer. Freddie, what do you think about that? If government spends more money, we will all get richer. But on most of the front pages this morning, we're talking about high borrowing costs, aren't we? Well, that's it. There really needs to be a bit of a balance here and an evening up of what is taken with the tax take and the spending by the central government.
8:00It doesn't necessarily make us rich. It can arguably make us poorer. As you say, Liana, the cost of borrowing is continuing to soar and we're hitting records seemingly on a daily basis that the UK borrowing cost is now higher since 2008. But, you know, he makes some valid points, I believe, you know, particularly with the suggestion that Brexit has been bad for the economy. And although he didn't state it directly, he said that trying to get closer ties to Europe would be a positive. And that's something that I'd certainly agree with.
8:33Leanna Byrne:Just going back to government borrowing, I mean, how much room does the government actually have to deliver these things and to actually grow the economy if, like you said, that yield in the benchmark 10-year guilt, and that's essentially the interest rate investors demand to lend the government. I mean, that went to its highest level since 2008 yesterday. So, I mean, how much headroom do we have here? And what do you expect from the budget? Yeah, well, in terms of the headroom, do you remember at the budget last year, Rachel Reeves deliberately increased the headroom that she had and the government had with regards to spending and gave a buffer of about£20 billion based on the figures from the budget last year, as the yield on these government bonds goes up and up, then that headroom just is shrinking on a daily basis.
9:25And so she has got less scope. Sorry, she doesn't. John Healy now has less scope. New person in the job now, I know. A lot of change. Exactly. And so, you know, yet again, we're going to have, it's a bit like Groundhog Day, the lead up to the October budget next month is probably going to be filled with speculation about possible tax rises to again increase the headroom.
9:49Leanna Byrne:And people might be listening and saying, well, why are the yields on 10-year gilts or just the bonds? Why are they going up? And is this about concerns over Britain's finances? Are investors worried about that? Or is this kind of a global bond sell-off that we're getting wrapped up into? Yeah, well, it's different to 2022, to a certain extent, because this is a global phenomenon, actually, because, you know, we've got a multitude of factors impacting government bond yields across the world. Of course, we've got the ongoing Iranian conflict that's continuing to put pressure on oil prices. We've got the effects of El Nino, particularly with the weather patterns this year, impacting soft commodities as well.
10:36And that will feed into possible increases in food prices. And then we've also had comments from the central bank of governor in America, Kevin Walsh, last week, at the end of last week at the Jackson Hole symposium, saying that America may need to raise their interest rate before the end of this month. So we really had a sort of trifecta of news over the last few days that has just continued to put pressure on bond prices across the world.
11:06Leanna Byrne:Now, speaking to the BBC overnight, Lord Jim O 'Neill, who informally advises the Prime Minister, he's argued that reforming the pension triple lock and getting welfare spending under control, he says that there are golden opportunities. Do you think that he's right that that could bring borrowing costs down? Yes, well, I mean, that's one of the elements within the spending element that I'm sure that's going to have some crosshairs put upon that at some point. And it's, you know, at this current trajectory, that triple lot will become unaffordable over the coming years. And so, again, that will probably be looked at at the budget.
11:44But it is a very politically sensitive topic.
11:48Leanna Byrne:Annabelle, listening as somebody running a business, what stood out to you from what Burnham said yesterday and has been saying over the past couple of weeks? Yeah, it's been a very interesting time, hasn't it? I normally find politics completely infuriating, but I would say on the positive, I think Andy Burnham has done an amazing job at trying to communicate very directly and honestly with people. I think one of the issues that we have is that the population overall have completely lost faith in politicians as a whole and I think he's done actually a pretty good job of trying to change that so full marks on the communication um I think he's also doing a pretty good job of trying to deliver a message of change and hope which is also what people want but of course the question is can he actually deliver it um and I think that's the bit that we don't know about yet I guess um I think on the Brexit piece and delivering closer ties with Europe that's really positive it's really interesting though because behind the scenes we're already seeing that's happening so we're as a business we're organic certified and we export a lot because we make whiskey which means we send a lot of goods to Europe and sending organic certified alcohol post-Brexit is a nightmare because of all of the regulation that surrounds those two elements of the product.
13:18But we are already seeing the fruit of work the government has been doing over the last couple of years, I think, to reduce the amount of paperwork organic goods need to go with. So I think if he can deliver more along those lines, that as a business owner would be fantastically positive. But he also needs to fix the cost of employment, I think. And I don't know whether he's going to manage to do that.
13:40Leanna Byrne:Yeah. I mean, he did talk a lot about government taking a more active role in the economy. And some people like that, some people don't. We actually had a text in there saying, good morning, is Andy Burnham serious? The new mayor of Manchester was the head of Manchester City Council under Burnham. She spent over half a billion pounds in Manchester Town Hall. It's not finished and the costs are still rising. He wants to give councils more money, seriously. I mean, as a business owner, does that appeal to you or would you rather government concentrated on things like tax, energy costs, regulation?
14:14yeah I mean I think spending a lot of money is via councils is in my view is not is not the answer and I don't think that's going to help businesses I think um he needs to focus on balancing the books that's the that's the biggest priority isn't it and um figuring out how we're going to address the rising cost of debt and all of those things is is clearly key but I think you know the one thing that would make the biggest difference to most business owners especially in the kind of broader sector that we sit in. So things like hospitality is addressing the cost of employment that rose so much.
14:51Leanna Byrne:Uncertainty as well. I feel like whenever we have somebody on the show, they're like, well, everything has just changed so much over the past couple of years that we just don't know where the land is going to lie in the next budget or the next announcement that's going to come down the tracks. Absolutely. Yeah. I think, you know, uncertainty is absolutely the enemy of business. And we've had a lot of that over the last few years. Now, sticking with the theme of government debt, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds hit 3 % for the first time since 1996 yesterday. So why is that important?
15:24Leanna Byrne:Well, it means investors are demanding a higher return to lend money to Japan's government and it's pushing up borrowing costs for a country whose national debt is already more than twice the size of its economy. It's all to do with worldwide fears of escalation and tensions between Iran and the US, and as a result, concerns over rising oil prices, which are likely to push up prices everywhere. For more on this, we have Ethan Wu, The Economist's Asia business and finance editor, and he joins us from Singapore. Ethan, thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. So 3 % might not sound especially high to listeners here, but why is it such a significant number for Japan?
16:04Yes. I mean, any given level of yields is itself symbolic. It's a psychological threshold. But I mean, in Japan, this is the highest yield on long-term bonds that they've had in decades. I think what it really signals is that, I mean, in Japan, inflation is back. The sort of old story of the deflationary decades in Japan and the doldrums. I mean, the situation has really changed in the wake of COVID, in the wake of the war in Ukraine. Japan has now been grappling with an inflation problem for coming on four years now. And so that kind of fundamental change in the economic backdrop, it's begun to show up in the bond market.
16:40Leanna Byrne:It's funny, isn't it? Because Japan spent decades actually trying to generate inflation. Yeah. No, it's true. It's true. And, you know, what they struggled to generate domestically, they ended up importing from abroad as energy prices soared after the war in Ukraine. And now, again, with this current rally in yields, I mean, we've seen energy hit the Japanese economy once again. I mean, the flaring up of the war in Iran, tension in the Strait of Hormuz, investor concerns about the price of oil. I mean, that's sort of the proximate driver of why long yields have been going up recently. What role has the weak yen played in all of this?
17:19Yes. I mean, the weak yen is a crucial bit of the inflation story. And as listeners might know, it's been continuing to weaken for a number of years. And this has become a real political liability for the government of Takaichi Sane, Japan's first female prime minister. The weekend drives up the cost of imported goods. And in Japan, that means a tremendous amount of their food and almost all of their energy has gotten a lot more expensive for ordinary households. And so that kind of cost of living crunch, you know, it's put a lot of pressure on Japanese politicians to respond to it. You know, in addition to that, I mean, the weak yen once upon a time was thought to, you know, boost the Japanese economy because a weak currency helps your exports.
18:04And Japan is a lot of, you know, world class multinational firms that sell a lot abroad. But I think these days the politics and the economic benefit of it look a little bit more negative from the Japanese perspective.
18:16Leanna Byrne:Now, markets are expecting the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again this month. But am I right to say the Bank of Japan moves a little differently to other central banks? It can be quite cautious. So why has it moved so cautiously until now? Yeah, it's been slow and steady for the BOJ over the past couple of years. And in part, that's because of what we were saying just a minute ago, that Japan has spent so long trying to get this kind of inflation to return to their economy. And the central bank, I think is a bit nervous about squashing that prematurely. In addition to that, when you have an economy that's been on sort of economic life support and monetary life support for years and years, there are concerns about what higher interest rates might do to the banking system.
19:01But I think the evidence is building for the Bank of Japan that it is time to hike rates a little bit more quickly. Just today, the central bank governor is signaling that at their meeting later this month in September. They're probably going to raise interest rates to 1.25%, which again, to a Western audience, doesn't sound like a particularly high interest rate. But Japan had negative 0.1 just a couple of years ago. So this really is a quite drastic change. And increasingly, it is being encouraged by the US as well.
19:31Leanna Byrne:Freddie, I'm going to bring you in here. What does all this mean for investors in Japanese companies? Does the weak yen still help exporters? Or are higher important energy costs beginning to outweigh that benefit? Yeah, well, there are definitely two pools there. I think the cost of doing business is going up. But as things currently sound, the yen is still historically quite weak. So the exporters are still doing quite well from the current environment. Plus, actually, some of the domestic Japanese companies are now benefiting off the sort of domestic fiscal package that the Prime Minister is introducing as well.
20:11Leanna Byrne:Yeah, well, let's talk about that, actually. I'll ask Ethan about that. So Prime Minister Takeichi, she had this investment plan that says that it's going to strengthen the economy, money's going into areas like AI and semiconductors. So do you think that that could ultimately generate the growth Japan needs? Yeah, it's a great question. And the prime minister has announced this very ambitious. I think the number is 370 trillion yen over the next decade and a half. Now, about two thirds of that would come from the private sector. So the actual public sector bill isn't quite that big. But the hope very much is that this is a supply side expansion package that they're investing in Japanese capacity, Japanese innovation, Japanese supply chains.
20:51And I think it fits with the backdrop of the prime minister herself. She was the economic security minister under a previous Japanese government. I think the issues that are really close to her heart are resisting Chinese coercion. And again, in recent months, Japan and China have been at loggerheads over historical disputes and disputes over Taiwan. And China has been restricting the sale of dual-use goods and cutting off the flow of tourism. And so I think in this environment of geopolitical risk, the prime minister wants to strengthen domestic capacity, protect Japan. I think the issue is – I mean as you mentioned at the top, Japan doesn't have enormous fiscal space.
21:31This is a country that has a lot of debt. They've borrowed for many, many years. The pension system for a long time was not on sustainable footing. And so I think even as they're undergoing this ambitious expansion package, they're facing constraints, whether that's from inflation pinching households, whether that's from the weak yen, both pinching households and potentially provoking the US or on the fiscal side as well. I mean, this is a country where policymakers are very hemmed in.
22:00Leanna Byrne:And when you talk about inflation pinching households, what are things looking like for the average person now? So are they reining in spending? You know, things like are property prices coming down? What does the average day or the average economy kind of look like for the normal person? Right, right. Yeah, I mean, this is – I think it's worth saying, you know, one of the main negative effects of inflation, and this will be familiar to many listeners, is it's psychological. It's that my bowl of udon cost 200 yen for the past 30 or 40 years, which I think was the case in much of Japan, that you just didn't have prices change at all.
22:37And then suddenly after the war in Ukraine, your 200 yen bowl of udon is 300 yen. And that's quite destabilizing, I think. Layer on top of that, the fact that Japanese households have been seeing real wage cuts that is after inflation pretty much since the bursting of the bubble in the late 20th century. And so in that environment of long-term declines in spending power for the average person and then the more recent jump in the cost of food and the cost of energy, both because of the currency and because of kind of global developments in those markets, Japanese households are hurting. And I think this is why the cost of living issue has become so salient in Japanese politics, such that the prime minister, even as she's pursuing this ambitious investment agenda, also on the side is trying to cut to cut the consumption tax on food.
23:31Leanna Byrne:Good examples there, Ethan. Your Udoninomics. I appreciate that. All right. Ethan Wu, economist, Asia business and finance editor from joining us from Singapore. Thank you so much for joining us. Now, Freddie, I mean, it's important to say Japanese government are, you know, Japan, it is such a huge market in terms of it's one of the biggest sources of investment capital, isn't it? So if investors, Japanese investors can now earn better returns at home, maybe that could help them out. You know, it could push up the borrowing costs in the US as well. Yeah, absolutely. And just the inflation number in Japan, it is an interesting number.
Read the full transcript
24:16It's risen up to 2%. And as the previous guest said, it was sort of almost a negative number. So there is quite a step change there. But ultimately, you're right, there's been a lot of movements in financial markets, particularly currency markets, with regards to borrowing in a cheap currency, yen, and then investing in high yielding currencies across the world. It's called the carry trade. And that that has funded quite a lot of investment across the world. And if that starts to reverse, then that could have an impact, particularly in the US economy.
24:51Leanna Byrne:Now, Annabelle, Japan, it's an important whiskey market, isn't it? Do you currently sell there? We do. We export to Japan. So our goods are moving in the opposite direction. And, you know, indeed, the currency, the currency issues do impact us. It's a huge whiskey market. But as I'm sure everyone is aware, Japan now make their own excellent whiskey, which also makes it a very competitive one. So whilst it's not the most important market for us in the world, it is definitely one that we're trying to crack. So when the yen is close to a 40 year low against the dollar, does that make it harder to sell into the market?
25:28Leanna Byrne:OK. Yeah, exactly. Although, to be honest, I mean, it does. but we haven't been exporting there for a very long time and it's not like we're sending shipments every week. So the currency fluctuations impact us but probably what impacts us even more is the consumer confidence in Japan. That's what really drives, I think, how easy or hard it is to establish an acne. Yeah, because whiskey, I mean, it's capital intensive, isn't it? But your product, to make whiskey, I believe, I've never made whiskey before, But your product sits maturing for years before you sell it, doesn't it? Yeah, exactly. Exactly.
26:05And it's, you know, from an investment point of view, a whiskey business, a whiskey distillery is truly crazy. Yeah, we had to build a distillery from scratch and then you wait for three years until the first product is ready. Yeah, so for us, the key is, the key, the best environment for us to sell into abroad is one where the consumer is feeling great about the money in their pockets. And unfortunately, there's not many markets like that in the world at the moment.
26:32Leanna Byrne:Exactly. I mean, everything's gone up these days. all the input costs. And actually, oil has climbed again this morning. Brent crude is around$95.50 a barrel after another exchange of strikes between the US and Iran overnight. Raised fears about disruption to supplies. I mean, Freddie, we're always talking about this now. I mean, a couple of weeks ago, I mean, oil was back down, but now it's around$95 a barrel. What are investors most worried about here? Yeah, well, it's some of the byproducts off of our particularly diesel heating oil you know that's that's really the tightest part of the oil complex at the moment due to just low infantries and obviously we've got the winter months coming up and the steady build-up that needs to happen to ensure that there's enough fuel through the winter and so it's becoming increasingly tight across the markets but And obviously, you know, diesel feeds straight into transport costs, logistics costs, and again, into unfortunately costs of doing business for a number of companies.
27:37Leanna Byrne:Yeah, exactly. And Annabelle, how quickly do higher energy and those costs, how quickly do they feed through into your business? Well, the distillery itself actually operates off renewable energy. So we use sustainably harvest biomass from just around the corner on the west coast of Scotland. and in fact the whole distillery operates on in our tiny little area without fossil fuels however unfortunately we're not completely immune but it does take a little bit longer to feed through to our business as a result but of course lots of our suppliers still operate off fossil fuels so whether that is how our bottles are made or even the trucks that take the whiskey from the west case to Scotland to a shop in London or whatever it was, whatever it is, it obviously, it obviously does impact our business in that sense.
28:28Leanna Byrne:That's it. If you're exporting, you've got those transport costs. And when you've got fuel, the shipping costs rise, that puts pressure on your margins, I'm sure. So nobody's immune. That's it. All right. Okay. Well, we're going to be talking a lot more about football transfer spending in the second half of the programme. Also school uniforms, got a couple of texts in on that. We got school uniforms are a relic of impersonal industrial approach to education, which is largely inappropriate for the education we need in the 21st century. Interesting take. Also, hello, welcome to Wake Up to Money.
29:04Leanna Byrne:Sorry, hello, Wake Up to Money. I'm just on a roll there. We had a school uniform in first year of secondary school, but later on it was optional. Glory Vanderbilt jeans, very cool. I'll have to look what they look like. and Levi's jeans. I know what they look like. We look like a USA school. We were actually in Nacton High School in Ipswich. That was Yvonne Buckley in Ipswich and Suffolk. Sounds like a very cool school where you probably could have put a reality TV show or, you know, one of those films. But get the count. September's always busy. Whole Foods Market can help. Their September Stock Up event makes it easy to load your pantry and freezer with flavorful, nourishing food.
29:49Even better, there are hundreds of sales. Get dinner going with canned soups and veggies. Lean on frozen pizzas, pastas, and seafood everyone loves. Their Build Your Own Family Meals feeds four for just$35. Stock up at Whole Foods Market. Odoo, providing tools for businesses across industries into one fully integrated platform. Whatever your business needs, Odoo is committed to providing it. Learn more at odoo.com. Numbers up there. Wake Up To Money from BBC Radio 5 Live.
30:24Leanna Byrne:Morning, welcome back to Wake Up To Money. So this morning we're talking about school uniforms. Many pupils will be heading back to school this week, kitted out with new bags, new blazers. But how much is all that new gear going to cost? We had a few interesting texts in on uniforms and people's just opinions on uniforms. So new rules on the uniforms. What does that mean for shops that supply those families. We're going to be speaking to a shop later. Just get in touch with us if you have any thoughts on uniforms and the cost of them, whether you like them or not. Just get in touch with us 85058 or 08085 909693 and of course if you're listening to us on BBC Sounds or the podcast, just use the hashtag WakeUpToMoney on social media.
31:09Leanna Byrne:Still with me, Annabelle Thomas, founder and chief executive of Nugneen Whiskey. Annabelle, would you ever think about bringing in uniforms for your staff? well actually we kind of do already have them nice um and yeah i mean it's not it's not really a uniform but um for my distillers who actually make the whiskey they do get you know work clothes and those are branded t-shirts and kind of practical trousers and most importantly safety shoes so for the team who are actually making the whiskey we do have a uniform of sorts the rest of the team not but um but yeah i mean i do actually think they find that very useful in particular because they're doing you know they're doing hard jobs sometimes and that impacts their clothes that sounds really silly but it's true and not having to wear their own clothes to work is is a positive and they look smart and everyone knows where they are and sounds comfortable as well good comfortable shoes t-shirt grant exactly exactly uh freddie cahoon investment director J.M.
32:15Leanna Byrne:Finn. I mean, Freddie, in the city, I'm sure there is a uniform of sorts. You can't really stray too much outside the box. Yeah, I mean, it's definitely suits dominate still the streets of the City of London and in the offices. However, I think there's more of a kind of softer suit culture now, sort of more branded, sort of trendy suits coming in, perhaps less ties and shoes as well. It's evolving, I think. Yeah, post-pandemic, I'm sure people were just like, we'll relax a little bit. Yeah, that's right. And sort of dress down days have come in as well later in the week on Fridays. Sounds nice.
32:53Leanna Byrne:All right. Well, let's talk about football transfer spending because the transfer window in England and Wales is now closed and it was a big one. Sandro Tenali has completed a move to Tottenham. It's the second highest amount of money the club's ever received for a player in a deal thought to be worth up to£100 million. Four-nine in football, Nottingham Forest have confirmed that midfielder Elliot Anderson will join Manchester City this summer. The 23-year-old will move for£116 million. Four-chelsea have completed the signing of England's Morgan Rodgers from Aston Villa for a British record transfer fee of£117 million.
33:29Liverpool have confirmed the signing of the French international Bradley Barcola, the winger from PSG. The 23-year-old joins for an initial£106 million with a potential... Enzo Fernandes. Manchester City have reached an agreement with Chelsea to sign the midfielder for a fee of£125 million. That is a joint British record transfer fee.
33:51Leanna Byrne:So over£3 billion has been spent overall, which dwarfs the£1.13 billion spent by clubs just five years ago. So with us is Chris Weatherspoon, football finance writer for The Athletic. Good morning, Chris. Morning, Liana. How are you doing? Yeah, I'm good. More than£3 billion. That sounds extraordinary, Chris. So how does that compare with previous years? Well, it is extraordinary. And we think it's more than last year, which was extraordinary. And last year was the big, oh my goodness, we can't believe how much these clubs have spent. And the other thing to say as well is these are just the reported transfer fees that get reported at the time.
34:33What we know actually from when clubs put their accounts out later in the day, the actual costs of these transfers are much more. You know, these transfer fees tend not to include agent fees, which are huge. The Premier League paid out like£460 million last year in agent fees. Wow. There's a transfer levy from the Premier League at 4 % of every transfer fee. So actually, we're looking at about£3.5 billion gross. It's probably closer to four.
34:59Leanna Byrne:Wow. What I find to be confusing, Chris, is that many of these clubs are still losing money. So what gives them the confidence to keep spending at this level? If this was the government, people would be complaining. They would, yeah. And I think, you know, there's an argument that, well, you know, it's a private asset or whatever. And, you know, like club owners and clubs can do what they want. But, you know, these things, they don't operate in a bubble. The Premier League might often seem like it's out on its own. but there's a pyramid there, there's a championship, there's three main divisions below it, there's divisions below that.
35:35This all has a massive knock-on effect, and you're right. Even in the Premier League, where there's never been more money in football, where clubs have never made more revenue, they've never actually lost more money. You know, last year, or sorry, 24, 25, the last year for when we have accounts, if we strip out paper transactions of clubs, you know, selling women's teams to themselves or selling the ground to themselves, they lost a collective billion pounds. And I guess the reason that they keep doing it is, you know, the owners, they're having to speculate to accumulate. You know, nobody apart from historically Manchester United, which is very controversial, none of them pay dividends.
36:12But what the owners do expect is they expect the value to appreciate. And then when they sell up, as we've seen in part with Liverpool recently, they'll make a lot of money then. And so that's where it stems from. The problem with it is, like I say, it doesn't happen in a bubble. and the knock-on effect is really, really damaging.
36:28Leanna Byrne:Why is so much money now circulating within the Premier League itself? So the Premier League's TV deal, like its domestic TV deal, is so much bigger than anywhere else. You know, like on average, even the bottom team just from TV money gets around£120 million a year. That's more than most clubs in other countries get for winning the league, for finishing top of the league. So that's, and it's years and years and years of that accumulating. We've also got, like what we just said there, we've got owners who are happy to lose money and happy to put money in. You know, despite these increases in revenue, we're actually seeing more and more owner funding go in.
37:09And just the advantage that the Premier League has over everywhere else, it's kind of, it's like this vicious cycle. And we see it now with kind of the promoted teams, the promoted teams who get promoted from the championship, they're having to spend ever more just to try and stay up, you know, this year. We reckon, and you know, it's a bit, we're very fresh off it. It's a bit like, you know, when they're counting the last votes in the general election, we're still trying to work it all out. But I reckon that the three promoted clubs spent over 450 million combined this summer just gone. And they'll still be favourites to get relegated.
37:46Leanna Byrne:it is interesting essentially what that spending means for the competitive balance i guess it's not just within the premier league or between english clubs right it also probably means something for the rest of europe too doesn't it it does and this is an absolutely huge problem and this is a really big problem football's got both within the premier league and beyond you know for all the premier league's the most watched league in the world and and it actually it's probably more competitive than other divisions there's only a very small slim figure of clubs who can actually win it which you know when we're talking about a sport here that's probably not great and that's probably only been perpetuated by this summer you know clubs who the richest clubs in the division are plucking the best players from the rest of the division at record levels so they're obviously going to be even better than they were before and then you're right you're exactly right.
38:38In Europe, because English clubs and even the middling English clubs who were getting those players plucked by the bigger ones, they earned so much more money that they're so far ahead of the rest of Europe. You know, UEFA has three main competitions and the second and third competitions, English clubs are routinely the favourites to win them now.
38:58Leanna Byrne:But I suppose, Chris, supporters of Premier, you know, big supporters of Premier League, they might say, that's just evidence the Premier League is super successful it earns the most money tracks the best players to the people in the European leagues that's tough for them you know I suppose it is but I guess we're talking about sport as well and I think the problem with it is really is that we're also seeing that trend or I expect we're going to see that trend within the Premier League itself as you know the best players continually move to the better teams you know we look at the teams at the top of the league now they effectively have if they don't have two first teams They've got one and a half first teams.
39:38They've got so much depth comparative to everyone else. And the problem with it is, there's nothing actually from that we're kind of rolling back from this and we're making the balance better. Everything points to the fact that we're making it worse.
39:52Leanna Byrne:Chris, there are already financial rules intended to control what the club spends. So why aren't they having more of an effect? Well, they're not very good. All right. the thing is you know we talk there's a new rule coming in the premier league and it mirrors one you ever it's called a squad cost ratio and the idea is controlling your squad costs which are you know naturally the biggest costs at a football club now in the premier league they're set at 85 percent of revenue and now the guy who's in charge of la liga pointed out right quite rightly um that nobody's going to be able to run the rest of their club off the remaining 15 percent so there's no real sustainability there but then the other point when we talk about competitive balance is these ratios they're tied to how much clubs earn now that just naturally means that the clubs like Manchester United you know like Liverpool, Arsenal they're all able to spend so much more than everyone else because they're kind of recurring revenues so the ones that aren't relying on performance, you know, match day and commercial.
40:57They're so far beyond everyone else. You know, if you're in UA for competition, if you're in Europe, your score cost ratio is 70%. That's your limit. In the Premier League, it's been set at 85%. And they say, you know, that'll keep things competitive. The problem is that at these rich clubs, 70 % of revenue is still significantly higher than 85 % elsewhere.
41:20Leanna Byrne:Freddie, I'm going to bring you in here. If so many football clubs are losing money, why do wealthy investors, why are they so keen in them still? What's the financial attraction? Well, perhaps one of the attractions is something to do with ego. That's sort of not financial, but I would have thought that there's quite a lot of kudos in owning a football club. And I think that's the point. I think from a financial perspective, you put in the investment in the early days, you try and build success, build a brand, and then look to sell it later on down the line. and make a tidy profit. So would you describe Premier League clubs as an attractive investment?
42:00I quite like companies that pay dividends. They provide you with a sort of, you know, you're paid for a bit of patience, as it were. But, you know, I think I'm too emotional as an investor. I think I'd get carried away in all the football results and not look at the financials properly.
42:18Leanna Byrne:Maybe, Freddie, Chris, maybe he needs to invest in Man United. That's the only one that's paying dividends at the moment. Well, even they're not anymore. That's true. Yeah, so this is the thing, very few of them do. And, you know, there's an interesting thing, certainly in football, in that it's kind of seen as a really bad thing if owners take money out. But the player wages, now don't get me wrong, I think the players should get the bulk of the compensation because they're the ones providing the product as you will. But the problem is, I don't think in any other industry you would pay your employees the level that they are paid relative to income.
42:55Because it's just incredibly damaging. We've talked about the Premier League here, but the knock-on effect is really bad. If we look in the EFL, even in League One, which is the third division in England, clubs are losing on average like£7 million a year. In League Two, it's rising up to like£3 million a year. And that's across 24 clubs. It's not like just one or two. On average, they're losing those amounts of money. And they're just really dangerous amounts of money. because the problem with that is these clubs, certainly down at that level, are entirely reliant on a benefactor propping them up.
43:27And if we get to a point where they either decide, you know what, I'm a bit sick of putting this much money in, or they simply can't afford it, which is increasingly likely with the sums we're talking about, that's when these clubs run into trouble. We've got a team like Sheffield Wednesday, who were in administration all last season, finished the league basically on zero points, effectively rendered the championship a 23-team league. I mean, when we talk about competitive balance, that's a very real and obvious impact.
43:55Leanna Byrne:I mean, Chris, if a club spends£100 million on a player and that player fails to perform, who ultimately bears a financial loss? It's not the player. No, it isn't at all. And it's not the agents who broke the deal and who are making, you know, millions on some deals. I mean, ultimately, it is the clubs, But also, I think we forget, you know, fans, perhaps rightly, look and think, well, why are my ticket prices going up? Why does no game really kick off at 3pm on a Saturday anymore? And that's all linked to what I would call dangerous overspending in the Premier League, in football. Because what we see, we've got years of evidence of it, is the more money clubs get, the more they just spend on wages.
44:42Like during COVID, revenues kind of collapsed for a little bit. They didn't collapse, you know, but they went down. Wages kept rising, transfer fees kept rising. So there's really, and the problem is, now that the rules are tethered to revenue, there's an incentive there for clubs to put prices up. And the reason they do that, the reason they justify it is, well, if we put prices up, we can spend more on players. The problem is, like I was saying before, the level the players are paid now is so high, and it's very damaging to, yeah, just to the whole, the economics of it. And, you know, like I say, they bring in rules, but really I think in any other industry these rules will be laughed at.
45:24You know, the Premier League's got rid of the rule now, but they had a rule where clubs were allowed to make adjusted losses. So it wasn't even just actual losses, it was just that you could take out good expenditure of$105 million over three years. Now, in what other industry would that be a good thing? You know, like in football, losing£105 million became a target because it was like, well, we'll be as competitive as we can up to that loss limit. In another industry, if you lost£105 million over three years, you wouldn't exist.
45:52Leanna Byrne:Oh, no. Very true. Very true. All right, Chris Weatherspoon, football finance writer for The Athletic. Thank you so much for joining us. I mean, Annabelle, sometimes in a business, you have to invest heavily in the hope of growing later, don't you? So when do you decide that's a sensible risk and when does it become reckless? us. Well, absolutely. And none more so than in whiskey, where we're investing so much ahead of when we're actually going to be selling the product. But, you know, I'm not a big football fan and I'm not very close to the finances. But hearing the discussion there, it certainly seems like the money being spent is completely crazy from a finance point of view, but also a little obscene in the context of the broader context that we're all operating.
46:33Leanna Byrne:I know it's just numbers that we can't really comprehend, isn't it? Absolutely. All right. Well, listen, I've talked about this for the whole programme. We are going to talk about school uniforms now. We're back to school for millions of kids in England and Wales this week. For families, that can mean a substantial uniform bill. So research for Nationwide suggests parents across the UK spend an average of£381 a year on uniform and sports kits, shoes, trainers, blazers. They're among the most expensive items. But from this week, the government has said that schools in England should not require parents and carers to buy more than three items of branded school uniforms.
47:10Leanna Byrne:So the government says that that will make uniforms more affordable. Lawrence Joyer is shop manager at Prestige Design and Workwear in Flittick in Bedfordshire. Lawrence, hello, good morning. Good morning, how are you? You all right? Yeah, I'm good. So how has trade been around this time of year for you? It's been good, to be honest with you. Yeah, it's been fun. I think the government, this thing's been on the, especially in the school industry for a couple of years. So ourselves at Prestige, we sort of changed our way that we were selling our garments anyway. So we were bringing school stocks down and we were changing things ahead of it.
47:49So when it did drop that we'd know, it's actually three items and four items. There's two different tier structures of it. But I think it would affect some shops. And it has affected us. But we've been very, very fortunate in the way the year's gone for us with this change. Because I think everybody in the industry was very concerned how it was going to work. But we've adjusted our prices accordingly to make it affordable for everybody.
48:25Leanna Byrne:So what exactly did you change about the products you stopped? Well, I think what we did, I think some schools, what we tried, the schools are the ones that tell the shops what to sell. So there's things like logoing on trousers and skirts, and that can really put the price up of those kind of garments. So we've already encouraged the schools last year to start thinking about dropping that out and changing that around. And we're just doing the best in the local, because we've got two different shops. One's not – the two different communities that we sort of look after, one is more affluent than the other.
48:58But we kept the prices exactly the same through both communities. And we always get comments on how cheap – how affordable our uniform is. So, yeah, we've just adjusted things. But I do think with the bigger uniform suppliers, I think what – because what they did was the government – The sports kit is one of the things that everybody was branding up. You know, there was some of the shops around, you know, socks and things like that. It's just ridiculous. You know, putting a school lug on a pair of socks is just stupid. So, you know, that was done. So we've sort of said, oh, we're not going to do any more of this kind of thing.
49:36Let's get it down. Let's get everything priced down right. But I think what will happen is, unfortunately, the big manufacturers of the school uniform who use the sports kit as well to bolster their sales because that's going to dramatically change. I do think that prices of the generic stuff like your blazers and your jumpers and your one bit of PE polo, for example, I think those prices will start rising. So because they're losing money from the other stuff that we're not allowed to sell. There's only really a guideline. It's sort of set in stone, but they do say, you can do it as an advisory you can have this as well but I think that's all going to change as things go I just think they'll put the prices up so what people were saving now I don't know if it will be like that in a couple of years time to be completely honest with you I don't know What about you Lawrence?
50:32Leanna Byrne:Can you actually make as much money selling those or does that actually reduce your margins? No I think well it does reduce the margins yes definitely and I don't know how many we're very fortunate because we do a lot of other stuff and I think we've sort of we've thought out of the box for a couple of years we've been bringing other things in but we do other bits and pieces as well we do workwear we do football kits all that kind of stuff so there's always something we're doing we're not a seasonal as such a seasonal business we work all year on other stuff as well but I think school uniform shops that are just seasonal which would be your summer holidays your half terms your Easter's I think they'll struggle I really do some of them I think a lot of them will probably go off the high street which isn't a good thing because the high street's falling apart anyway in many areas so I don't think I do get what the government I do get it I'm not you know but the regional the good shops are keeping their prices as low as they can but I do think prices will unfortunately rise for us but then you have supermarkets and larger sports retailers they're you know compete fiercely on price so how does that leave you?
51:42Well, yeah, well, we have to, I don't really know yet. It hasn't really, we've sort of jumped ahead of it. We're sort of a year ahead. We sort of did this last year. We know this was coming. So this year hasn't overly affected us on that because we were already sort of, that's all in our plans, you know, all in our budgets, all in our sort of yearly sort of meetings and stuff of getting that sorted. But I think it's definitely dropped, it's dropped a bit, but we're not in trouble with anything. Do you know what I mean? But I don't know what happened.
52:15Leanna Byrne:What about generally uniform shops? Do you think they're in trouble? Some of them are. We're not. But some of them are. And I think if they're not really, it's not saying we've got the actual, not saying we're actually the best at it, but I think you need to look at what you're doing. Because what will happen, what they're asking us to do, say for the PE kits for example they just say we're not going to have branded shorts which will be something like a colour in them or a logo on it so we just go black well then we've just bought black so and what will happen with parents if they're towing their children around doing a uniform shot which I remember doing it myself isn't the greatest day out so I think if they can go to one shop and it does everything generically so actually all you need is black shorts you don't just have a logo I'll have them anyway and you know and you can yeah you can just get it all done in one place and you know we can sell it at the same price as sort of the big sports we tell us yeah alright Lawrence Joy shop manager at Prestige Desire and Workwear in Flitig thank you so much for joining us lots of Texan and school uniforms some people love them some people hate them I love them and that is it from Wake Up To Money Five Lives So here's the first ball of this series All the cricket you laugh Check Robbie W Out lives on BBC Sounds.
53:35Smash straight back down the ground, this girl. Hear ball-by-ball coverage of the biggest competitions on the domestic and international circuits. It's a fourth week and it's the huge one. Jeez, wash. Settle down, tough as only. Cricket on Five Live Sport. Oh, I've lived every ball of this. Listen on BBC Sounds.
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From the publisher
As the football transfer window in England and Wales closes, Leanna Byrne looks at the billions of pounds spent. Japanese long-term borrowing costs hit a 30-year high amid a global bond sell-off. And we look at what new rules on school uniform could mean for the high street.
