Starm brewing?

28:37And as I say, the expectations are that the oil price could well be above$100 a barrel for the whole year. That confidence in jobs and the confidence in spending around that, getting stronger from what you're seeing, why would that be? Yeah, I think it's really interesting. So consumer confidence isn't just one thing. It's confidence about various things underneath that. And so you need to be confident about job. It's confidence about jobs and there's confidence about things like discretionary spend and they can move differently. And perhaps that's what we're seeing. So I think what our data is showing is that families are still confident about their jobs and careers, actually, because what we do is we sign nannies onto the long term contracts.

29:18So they are booking child care months in some cases, you know, many months ahead. It doesn't quite fit the doom narrative on the high street. But at the same time, they may be cutting back on discretionary spend. Childcare, of course, isn't discretionary. You know, it's the last thing that you cut back, because if you cut back on childcare, that means you can't work anymore. Steve, do you see, you know, not only looking at politics as you do, but looking at economics as well, the decisions we're making as a nation and where we focus our spend, are they very much going in certain directions? We're going to be talking about holidays a little bit later, and we often hear from that industry how that has become a bit of a non-negotiable for many households where they can make that work.

30:05Childcare, another one, as Rachel's talking about there. Are there certain sectors that are getting most of our money? I think the picture is, as Rachel says, quite mixed, and it has been kind of even more mixed by the kind of big shock that came along two months ago. So now, you know, there was kind of signals at the beginning of the year of some kind of claim that the government could make that those kind of fabled green shoots of recovery and kind of consumer confidence were coming away. But at the same time, we have seen maybe a move away from some of that kind of discretionary spending in kind of sectors that aren't seen as most essential over time.

30:47And I think we'll probably see more and more of that kind of protective behaviour from consumers going forward. Steve, good to have you on the show this morning. Thank you for your time. Dr. Steve Nolan, Senior Lecturer in Economics at Liverpool's John Moores University. Thank you for your messages as well. Keith saying good morning. Regarding the UK and the constant instability, it's due to the very low level of ability of our political class. As for the PM speech, it had no fire or inspiration, just a word salad. And Archie in Inverness saying stability is all very well, But how many second chances does Starmer expect to enjoy?

31:22He's had more of them than George Best. Further, I don't see this as a mutiny. Starmer was so off-piste and so often he had no right to claim loyalty from those around him. 85058, your thoughts, please. The government situation, says Steve, a speech alone can rarely fix deep long-term problems but can inflame problems, e.g. Burnham's reference of the bond market. Please let me know what you're thinking. Thank you, Paul in Liverpool says, love to know how Brenda from Bristol is coping with all this latest drama. Maybe if not quite thinking, who is Brenda from Bristol? I mean, she may well be a gift that has been used on one of your WhatsApp groups.

32:00Oh, not another one. That was the question put to her, wasn't it? By the question by John Kay when there was one various announcement of another election within the last few years. And Brenda's response was, oh, not another one. And Rachel sort of starting the show this morning with similar vibes, Rachel. We're all Brenda now. Yeah, we're all Brenda. Now, will we get to that point? We will see. We'll talk about it a bit more. Let me know your thoughts, 85058. I see somebody's linking the transfer window to what's going on at the top of government. We'll get through that thought in a moment as well.

32:33It's 5.34. I'm here on the job site with Dale, who's a framing contractor. Hey, good morning. They all traded up to Geico Commercial Auto Insurance for all his business vehicles. We're here where he needs us most. Yep, they sure are. We make it easy for him to save on all his insurance needs, all in one place, with coverage that fits his business and bottom line. Oh, I shouldn't have looked down. It's all right. We're so far up here. Look at me. Take a deep breath. No, I'm good. So good. Get a commercial auto insurance quote today at geico.com and see how much you could save. It feels good to Geico.

33:07Make Mother's Day even more special at Whole Foods Market. Kick off brunch or dinner with quality cheese and charcuterie with no synthetic nitrates. Then go seafood. There's an abundance on sale at Whole Foods Market, where it's all sustainable while cod or responsibly farmed. At the bakery, grab seasonal treats like their strawberry pretzel cream pie, and you can't go wrong with a ready-to-heat quiche Lorraine, deviled eggs, and fresh-cut fruits to go. Celebrate mom with Whole Foods Market. Wake Up To Money with Sean Farrington. Good morning. It is Wake Up To Money on BBC 5 Live. We're waking up to those headlines this morning that the cabinet, the UK government's cabinet, is split.

33:52Shabana Mahmood, we're told, has called for Sir Keir Starmer, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, called for Sir Keir Starmer to lay out a timetable for his resignation. You may have seen and heard yesterday evening the way that the number of MPs that were calling Labour MPs that were calling for the Prime Minister to resign or lay out that timetable had got to 72 by the latest tally. So we'll see how that goes further today. There's going to be a meeting of the Cabinet this morning. So we know how these things go, don't we, in terms of how fast we get updates and the comments and leaks and calls.

34:35That won't stop, it seems, for a good few hours at the very least. The Prime Minister will be wondering if it will take days, weeks, months for that to come to an end and how that will come to an end. Stick with us on Five Live. We will bring you that as we get all of those updates. Thank you for your messages this morning. We've had Simon in Bournemouth get in touch saying, the focus of the media seems to have shifted from the Chancellor. I'm very concerned about Rachel Reeves' economic policies. Business confidence is weak. Growth is slowing. Working people are being squeezed while costs keep rising.

35:08It feels like the government has forgotten that strong economies are built by supporting businesses' investment and hard work. Rachel Cowell is with us this morning, founder and chief executive of the childcare company, Coru Kids. Rachel, you've very much reflected how strong the growth has been for your business and how you've sort of started to see that right across the country in all different parts. But again, you know, Simon's message there. Do you see that, whether it's in your peers in the business, those on the high streets around you, those maybe working who are spending their money with you, but perhaps not feeling other parts of the economy?

35:46are as strong as they once were? When Simon says there's been, you know, business confidence is weak. Yeah, there's two big themes colliding here that I'm seeing. One is consumer spending and confidence, I do feel, is down. I said before that we as Coru Kids are actually seeing growth accelerating, but that I think is because we aren't a discretionary spend. Childcare is something you have to spend on. I am, though, hearing from, you know, I've got lots of other friends who founded startups and who run businesses. I am hearing different things from the more discretionary parts of the economy. So I think that is true.

36:26The other thing, though, you know, when I get together with other CEO friends or founder friends and we talk about how our businesses are doing, the one topic that is absolutely dominating our conversation that we haven't mentioned at all this hour is artificial intelligence, AI. and the things that we're all doing within our companies to make ourselves all more efficient. It doesn't mean laying people off, by the way. Often it means getting the people that we already have within the team to do twice as much or 10 times as much. And I'm hearing incredible stories from people. I'm seeing amazing things within my own company on that as well in terms of productivity.

37:02So that's actually a really positive thing that's happening. And so for me, I would say I'm not hearing personally weak business confidence, even against that tough consumer background. What's the difference here then? How does this tally between how many were voting last week, clearly not in massive support of the approach of the government right now, with people messaging every day, many feeling that there's a squeeze on them. Their lives aren't getting better. How does that tally with the story you're telling? Yeah, I think it's different sections of the economy. I totally recognise what you're saying.

37:46I think that's also obviously completely true and completely there. I think there's a difference between maybe companies that are smaller, and smaller, more agile, maybe that have a technology element to them versus some more traditional companies, maybe some that are undergoing this big AI revolution and those that aren't and ones that are exposed to different kinds of consumers. So I think all those things are true. I think the economy is just moving in very, very different ways in very different parts of the economy. Interesting. Well, we're going to talk more about the spend on holidays is a short while.

38:24So I would like everybody's thoughts. 85058 on how their spend this year compares to last year on their holiday, their holiday plans. It looks like we're spending less, but where are we spending less and how? Is it the same holiday, but just doing less on it? Looking to downgrade a little bit, but get to the same place, go to a different place that's cheaper, have fewer of them throughout the year. Steve's been back in touch saying, what is a holiday? For me, the whole series of admin tasks Risks has knocked the joy out of the traditional Mediterranean week away. Strike scams, lurgies, insurance, ghastly people at airports.

39:00Steve's in a good mood this morning. Parking, disappointment with the locations. No BBC as well, no thanks, says Steve. Steve, you must be having a break somewhere in there. Let us know where will put you in a better frame of mind, where you're thinking this year might be for you. We'll talk about the holiday spend very shortly. Let's get the very latest on developments in that steel industry. So Prime Minister announced amidst all of this in the last 24 hours that the Chinese-owned company called British Steel will be brought into public ownership. In Scunthorpe, we've been negotiating with the current owner and a commercial sale has not been possible.

39:42And now a public interest test could be met. so I can announce that legislation will be brought forward this week to give the government powers subject to that public interest test to take full national ownership of British Steel. Gareth Stace is Director General at UK Steel, which is the trade association for the UK steel industry. It's good to be clear about these things. So representing workers and businesses right across that sector, across the UK. Gareth, good morning. Good morning, Sean. Just explain what this is all about. Well, this is about giving certainty and hope to British Steel, its workers, their families, and those communities in Scunthorpe and Teesside.

40:29But not only to the workers, but to the customers of British Steel, the whole of the steel supply chain, and indeed to the remaining six other steel producing companies in the UK. because we're all unique. We all produce different products. For example, British Steel is the only producer of rail in the UK that our trains run on. It's the only producer of heavy sections, i.e. girders for construction and a number of other products. But if those products aren't produced by British Steel, they're in Scunthorpe and Teesside, then no one else can produce them. They get imported and then we're at the whims of imports and that does nothing for our national security and supply chain resilience.

41:13So what changes? Because the government has already seized control of these steelworks from those Chinese owners, Jingye, in April last year to stop the potential closure of the blast furnaces. What changes now with this latest development? What changes is the government will own the business. At the moment, the government is maintaining the business only. It can't make any big decisions because it's still owned by Jingye. so they only maintain in it therefore maintaining losses then once it's in national ownership the government its workforce trade unions and the rest of the sector can come up with a really good plan that would bring back competitiveness for that business invest in that business and deliver it as a asset that private investors would be keen to put their money into so that's it's a real game changer and it's hugely welcome that the government is intended to nationalise British steel.

42:11If the potential as you're talking about there is private investors putting their money in if there is such potential and a possibility of that why wouldn't private investors be doing that now? I think there is a lot of work to be done I mean as I said nationalisation doesn't need to be the end goal but really that certain certainly that first and vital step to that long-term plan I think there is investment that's needed and there is money in a steel pot that the government is committed to,£2.5 billion. I think some of that money would need to be spent on British steel. But also, there are a number of policy changes that are coming in quite soon.

42:50The government has delivered a number of those policy changes a year ago on improving competitiveness in energy prices. that needs more, are on more of the steel that the government purchases coming from the UK, not through imports. But actually, the biggest thing that government has done, and they announced this two months ago, is to stop in its tracks that flood, rising flood of cheap government subsidised and often dumped imports. And what we're seeing now is 70 % of UK steel demand is met by imports. We only supply 30 % of our market. It's unsustainable. And so we need to take back market share.

43:31And what the government is proposing to come in in July is a limit on those imports. So we can now supply our home market, what we want to do, and bring that market share from a woefully low 30 % to 50%. There's a risk, Gareth, that this could be expensive for taxpayers. I mean, a series of companies that have not been able to make this work. um i think anything in the steel sector is very expensive we're a hugely capital intensive business but what's the alternative the alternative is to is to close the business is to sack all that workforce and and however costly that is it's what are we going to do with the land that the business sits on but then as i said why because it supplies 90 90 percent of the rail that the UK needs, you know, it supplies those heavy sections.

44:23Why would you shut it? Yes, at the moment it's loss making, but that can change with those government policy interventions that I've talked about. And therefore there is a brighter future for this business. And that can only be done at the moment with nationalisation and that plan to get us back on our feet and to start making money again. And I can see that happen, but it's the only game in town and I'm very supportive of it. Randeep Somal, who's with us this morning, fund manager at M &G Investments. Randeep, could this be expensive for the UK government, for the British taxpayer? I mean, it certainly could be, and hence why it's being nationalised now.

45:05We're looking at what President Trump's been doing in the US and giving certain industries nationalised status to say that we need security of supply at home. This looks like one of those decisions here. This company has been on life support for some time now and it doesn't look it's going to be in any position to make a profit anytime soon so the taxpayer will have to continue providing that capital. Gareth, what's the latest on the tariff situation and the relationship with the United States and how that is impacting the steel industry? Well we need to remember that we're the only country in the world that only pay 25 % tariff going into the US market.

45:46The rest of the world pays 50%. So there was a deal there done last summer. I'd like that to be zero, but we still have that unique ability to sell into the US market. That relationship's good. We're also negotiating a similar deal with Europe because what's the imports that we want? We want healthy trade. We want imports from countries that that understand that there is a rise in global overcapacity from the Far East that floods global markets, that damages our market position and our sector. And therefore, we want to work together with Europe and the US to stop and halt in its tracks that dumped, often dumped, steel so we have healthy free trade.

46:31Gareth, thank you for joining us this morning. Gareth Stace, Director General at UK Steel, which is the body that represents steel businesses and the industry right across the UK. British Steel, which is the company itself these days, not the entire industry as it once been referred to. It's a Chinese-owned company owned by Yinge, as Gareth was laying out there. The government's saying that it will be brought into full public ownership. Rachel, just on that tariffs issue, you mentioned a little bit earlier thinking about expanding into America, expanded into Europe, which one do you choose? What role is President Trump's approach to tariffs right now having on your decisions about where you might want to expand next?

47:20Well, luckily, since we don't ship physical goods, in theory, these tariffs would not apply to us. And so I've been able to view it as a sort of disinterested person. But one of the things about Trump and his track record on tariffs is that it seems to be very random and subject to enormous change. And so I don't really feel able to say, well, historically, for the past couple of years, it doesn't seem as though the supply of nannies, which of course is what Cory Kids does, is subject to tariffs. Therefore, you know, we should make a multi-year commitment to America because we seem to be safe from tariffs.

48:05He's what he does is just so random. It's very hard to make make plans. And, you know, we've done the analysis, risk analysis where we write down all these risks and Trump doing something random, whether that is tariff based or something else, is really high on that list. And it's a huge barrier to us actually expanding to the US. 85058, join in the chat. Let me know your holiday thoughts. Keith's been in touch saying, poor old Steve, who'd been in touch earlier, not impressed with the idea of a holiday abroad. Sounds like he needs a hug and a holiday, says Keith. Come on, Steve, let us know where you're going to get your break this year.

48:43We all want you to have one. Put a smile on your face this morning. Somebody saying holiday. Last year, we spent a few days in a UK city for our holiday. No plans this year at all. That's how spending plans can change so quickly. John in Woodbridge says, we still enjoy a good quality foreign holiday with our young son. So rather than the previous 10-day trip, we now have an eight-day break. The changing climate also means we'd rather not go to the Med in August, so we choose the May half term, which is better value. These things combined allow us to still have an overseas break. Some of those changes perhaps people are making as spending on travel and holidays dropped by not far off 6 % in April, according to those new numbers out from Barclay Card.

49:29There was a fall in March as well, spending less on travel agents, spending down on airlines. Joanna Reeve is the UK Director of Intrepid Travel, joins us now. Travel, Joanna, good morning to you. Good morning. John's reflection there about how his family are changing their holiday spend but still getting one, does that ring true? Yeah, no, it definitely does. And actually, we've been seeing these changes in behaviours for a little while now, obviously compounded by uncertainty in the Middle East. But essentially, people's behaviour is changing in terms of climate moving into seasons outside of the summer holidays.

50:08And we're particularly seeing this with families utilising those bank holiday or half term weeks and getting smarter about how they use their time because they still want to have their holidays in a lot of cases. But demand getting less, it seems. Well, I think we have to look at April as a whole. And that is generally a softer trading month with peaks happening over January, February and March. So April does tend to trade a bit softer. However, we have seen an impounded softening on that because of the uncertainty over the Middle East. So what that means essentially is operators like ourselves can't operate in countries where FCDO advice warns against all but essential travel.

50:57That's the foreign office advice that people can look up, isn't it? Yes, that's right. And where that advice is in place, that means customers travel insurance will not be valid. And that currently includes transit via Gulf States too. So at the moment, a good proportion of British travellers will go via the Middle East to onward destinations. So that's had a direct impact on onward destinations as well as the Middle East directly. And you'll be seeing some of that come through on those figures that have been reported on by Barclay Card. Right. And does that ever come back? Or are people now, do you think, changing the way they are viewing their holiday this year, next year?

51:39The tone of some people who've been getting in touch with us this morning has been sort of trending downwards, spending ever less, just about clinging on in some cases to a holiday and others, no plans at all. Yes. And I think there's probably some good reason for that in April in particular. We're seeing lots of conflicting and confusing messages for travellers over April, reports on jet fuel shortages, airlines cancelling flights. I think when you bring all of those things into play, that's making people think twice, maybe delay. However, this is less than 1%. The Department of Travel released data to show that less than 1 % of flights between May and June are being cancelled, which is largely in line with standard cancellation rates.

52:28But I think with all of those things combined, it is having an impact. But we are seeing that UK travellers are generally still resilient and want to have their summer holidays. So they're just changing where and when and how they travel. Randeep, when we hear the investment bank JP Morgan suggesting that the oil price, which this morning is still at$105 a barrel-ish and has been a lot higher than it was throughout 2025, that the oil price is expected. many now are starting to think it could stay in that low 100s range for a lot of this year. What are the longer term consequences when it stays that high for that long, Randy?

53:12Yeah, I mean, a few things. You do start to see some demand destruction. Like we've pointed out here now, people are flying less. The costs have started to increase. Inflation in economy stays much longer. Fuel still remains, especially oil, the lifeblood of everything, including supply chains. So while you might be taking less car journeys, certainly if you're eating, that food got to you somehow. But more to the point now, even if the Strait of Hormuz were to open again, global reserves have depleted to such a level now that we would need to see higher fuel prices continue for some time, not only for the day-to-day to get back to normal, but also for those reserves to be replenished again.

53:54So it will have a knock-on effect for some time to come and that's assuming that this ends pretty quickly. Joanna do you have your nervousness of longer term prospects changed at all because of this and how long the war is taking to resolve and how long the the after effects of it will be in place for? Yeah well I mean the travel industry is pretty resilient we we're in a world which is which is unfortunately quite stable, whether that's down to natural disasters or geographical challenges. And this is clearly another one of those. We're quite diverse as a business. So I think what we're seeing at the moment is people making trade-offs.

54:41So Europe, travel to Europe, for example, was 33 % up in April, Italy in particular, other destinations where Middle East can be avoided, such as Costa Rica and Africa. I think people are still booking, but what they're really needing to see is that reason for booking. So we aren't increasing our prices for 2026 travel, for example. There are some airlines out there with some great deals that you wouldn't typically see this time of year. So I think if people look for businesses that have that good value proposition plus trust and flexible terms with a known operator or travel agent, then people should still be looking to travel at this point in time.

55:19But of course, things can change. Thank you for your time this morning, Joanna Reeve, UK Director of Intrepid Travel. Big thanks to Rachel and Randeep as well. And to Steve, you got back in touch. We asked, thank you, Steve. We did either Felix Stowe or Lincolnshire, who says calm and peace and beauty. We're all just glad you're getting a little bit of that, Steve. Good morning to you. That is it from Wake Up To Money. Wake Up To Money from BBC Five Live. That's it from Wake Up To Money. You can download the podcast every Monday to Friday. so please make sure you subscribe. We'd also love it if you left us a review when you do.

55:54Get in touch. Keep the conversation going any time as well on social media. Use the hashtag WakeUpToMoney.

56:18and it's the huge one. Jeez. Settle down, Duffer. Sorry, mate. Cricket on Five Live Sport. Oh, I've lived in every ball of this. Listen on BBC Sounds.