There's money in the bank?

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1:28Three of the biggest names in AI have been calling for a slowdown in development as debates over safety continue to rage. We'll get into all of that. And here we go again.

1:48That's right. After teasing a possible new tour last week, Oasis fans look like they only have hours to wait before the band reveal all. We'll hear from one Manchester Music Shop boss about whether it will be as big for business this time around. Wake Up To Money with Will Bane. Morning. Welcome to Wake Up To Money on Monday the 14th of September. Just gone five o 'clock in the morning. Will with you this morning. Great to have your company. Yes, looks like another Oasis tour. Will it be the kind of money spinner? Not just for the band, but for those businesses as it was last time. And we will also talk about a college, university American football game heading to Wembley Stadium this week.

2:26But also lots of, I'm afraid, fairly chunky business and economics news for us to get to. Oil prices spiking again overnight. We will get into why in just a moment we'll be talking about AI and that call for perhaps the brakes to be pumped in the development of that. And yeah, you can tell we're heading everybody back at work and heading towards the budget rapidly, can't you? because lots of rows about what taxes should go up or down, beginning banks, the latest in the firing line. We will chat about that in the second half of the programme. Would love your thoughts on any of those stories. As we move through the morning, 85058 is the text number to get in touch with us.

3:0308085 909693 is the WhatsApp number. If perhaps you have a question for our panel as we move through the morning or a point you would like to make, let's introduce you to them. Rachel Kettlewell back with us on Wake Up To Money. Rachel, the founder of Fern and Rosie Jams. morning great to have you back on how are you i'm very good morning will how are you yeah not too bad thank you uh for a monday morning getting there looking busy on the program today how about for you in work yeah work is good for norese is doing really well we're growing really nicely which is exciting um so yeah lots to talk about well that's nice and we'll come to that in a bit because i think there's a lot of kind of challenge that people are going to hear on the program today and we've heard it the last few weeks actually on the program haven't we so why are you growing well at the moment why is it why is it so positive for you guys um we've had i think we've had a really good like two to three years really where the business has grown really nicely year on year part of it's been because we've increased like the distribution so like the places that people can buy our products from um so we're now um in a big chunk of the retailers like Tesco, Asda, Ricardo.

4:10But also it's because the longer we're around, the more people try our products, the more people are coming back. And I think that's what's exciting. So we're recruiting more and more shoppers, which is just lovely. Like the idea that more and more people are buying our jams and it's making it to more and more families is really exciting. And I know a big part of what you guys did, you know, is sort of around sustainability and being a B Corp and all those kind of things. we often question don't we about whether we're in a period like we are now where there's sort of a bit of a cost of living crunch whether consumers still want to pick those things sounds like from what you're saying Rachel people are willing that that's not something they're willing to compromise on I think that's what we tend to see in in more challenging economical times is that although people might not have as much money to perhaps go out and spend they're still keen to indulge in treats at home and I think that is you know that's a lovely thing that we can hopefully be a part of and then on the B Corp as well we're actually just in the middle of our B Corp recertification which is exciting because the standards have changed from like the I guess the version one standards of B Corp to a new like second version and we're just in the middle of kind of that recertification process so that's really an exciting period for the business as well because we get to um kind of look at all the pillars and all the things that we have in place and see what's working what's not working and what we want to kind of uh bring in over the next few years so yeah lots going on which is fun really interesting and nice to hear a positive story on on wake up to money because it's as i say we're going to hear a bit of challenge throughout the program today um alongside rachel for the next hour and here in the studio with me this morning russ mould uh investment director at aj bell morning morning we're lovely to be here i see AJ Bell emblazoned across the front, not just the business pages this morning, on the front pages, but luckily for the right reasons, I think.

6:03And on the Prime Minister's shirt, I believe, when he was doing the Great North Run. That was an astute sponsorship deal by someone in AJ Bell Towers. I will pat our marketing director on the back when I see him in the London office this morning. Yeah, if people haven't seen this, the Prime Minister was running the Great Manchester Run. Newcastle, I think. It was the actual Great North Run, yeah. AJ Bell, the sponsors there. And so as a result, when he was caught at the end and interviewed, you can see alongside his charity Changing Lives, you can also see the AJ Bell branding across his number on the front there as well.

6:35Russ, oil spiking again this morning. I'm just looking across at the screens away from Mr. Burnham and at a screen that's telling me it's up 3 % this morning,$107 a barrel. Is that all about, as the news headlines were playing out there, you and I were watching the BBC News channel just above us here on the screen, seeing more advances, it looks like, by Houthi rebels in Yemen. Is that what's driving that? It is, and also there have been attacks on a Saudi east-west pipeline. You may remember a couple of weeks ago, US Treasury's Scott Bissett said, the Straits of Hormuz won't be worth very much in two years' time because we'll all have found ways around it.

7:08Pipelines, new lanes and so on. Well, strange enough, pipelines can also come under attack as well, and I think this is the challenge. So from the narrow perspective of financial markets, since the April peace deal and the June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, the market's core scenario has been that ends escalation. So if escalation ends, then the next step is de-escalation. The logical conclusion is a peace deal. And that has been financial markets' core scenario right from the start. So the fact that you've now got a re-escalation, you still haven't got the Straits of Four Moves open.

7:37America's strategic petroleum reserve continues to go down every week, and they publish the number so the Iranians can follow it and think we're getting closer to the midterms and the reserves are going down. And in a non-real world, because of that core scenario of financial markets, if you look at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange numbers, oil traders are short oil and are betting against the price. If the oil price goes up, they have to change their position, buy more oil to cover, and actually that will drive the oil price up for entirely non-real world reasons. So there's technical reasons why oil is going up.

8:07but also potentially fundamental ones because of the supply crunch that we're seeing with the streets of almost still not open. Well, to join Russ and Rachel to expand on this a bit more, we're joined by Dina Arachi. Dina is a geopolitical and security analyst for the Middle East, sorry, at Control Risks International Risk Consultancy. Morning, Dina. Thank you for having me. So what's the latest then and why is this particular, well, you tell me actually, whether it's the port or the pipeline, actually, that the Houthis seem to have struck slash taken in that order of those two things that is the most concerning, strategically important here.

8:45Okay, so it's a combination of two. The Houthis over the past week, even more, although there are engaging plushes on multiple front lines in Yemen, their priority has been Ta 'ez, Muqa port. And what that means essentially is that their priority is consolidating their control over the Red Sea coastline of Yemen and control over the Babel-Mendib Strait. Now, for the east-west pipeline, that's slightly different. The Saudis shut down the east-west pipeline on Friday after drone attacks from Iraq. Another, they didn't, nobody claimed the attacks, but it's most likely to be Iran-backed paramilitary groups launching the strikes from Iraq into Saudi Arabia.

9:41This wouldn't be the first time, and it's highly likely that those are the groups that led to these attacks. So the shutdown of the east-west pipeline, which is significant, it's not the first time, but it is significant, and the developments in Yemen, these two together are what is causing this increase in energy prices because they're both significant. And just that feeling that it's spiralling, right, that more and more players, even if they are linked to Iran, that more and more players, as you say, from Iraq or other places are getting involved now too. Yeah, and they've been active, but now we've seen an increase in intensity of these attacks.

10:27And in Yemen particularly, the reactivation of the conflict has been a significant uptick. We didn't have much activity on the domestic war in Yemen since almost 2022. So that uptick, despite the Hothis threatening launching attacks against Israel between 2023 and 2025, threatening the Red Sea during that period, launching attacks on a wide range of vessels. But this domestic war in Yemen, this reactivation of the war has been significant because the Houthis essentially control part of the coastline, but not the entirety of it. So they've been in clashes with pro-government forces that are backed by Saudi Arabia to control the entire of the coastline.

11:20But just to add on to that, what that means essentially is that for the Houthis, that increases their negotiating position and leverage against Saudi Arabia because they want to extract political and financial concessions from the Saudis. And as well, it serves their main backer, Iran, by showing that Iran continues to have regional influence and its ability to exert pressure on two energy corridors in the region. Yeah, the Babel Mandib Strait, you've already mentioned it once. This is going to be a name people are going to become as familiar with our listeners, I think, Dina, aren't they, as the Strait of Hormuz so far.

11:56So tell us why so significant. And if you can, I mean, I've just brought it up on the map here as well. Give people a sense of the geography as well. So Bab al-Mandeb Strait is because where it borders Yemen and the Houthis have threatened the Red Sea from before, beginning of 2023, after the 7th of October and their campaign of attacks against Saudi Arabia. Now, the more that they control that Red Sea coastline in Yemen, they have more effective control over Bab el-Mandeb Strait, meaning that they can threaten maritime traffic even more so. So far, in mid-July, the Houthis placed an embargo against Saudi, a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

12:51However, their attacks so far only targeted Saudi flag or Saudi-owned ships. And we're unlikely to see them expanding their targeting pattern against vessels. However, the Houthis are known to be unpredictable. That means the threat from the Houthis is likely to keep the maritime shipping and traffic through the Red Sea suppressed. that coupled with Iran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz and trying to exert its authority over the Strait of Hormuz will, and over these two choke points in the region, is going to be significant, not just only for the region, but globally, and starting with the energy prices, as your guests were speaking.

13:38Dina, thanks so much for your time this morning. Dina Arachi there, geopolitical and security analyst for the Middle East at Control Risks, the consultancy there as well. Well, Russ, I mean, I've got the map up there in the studio. That is some pinch point, isn't it, right between Djibouti on the coast of Africa and that point there of the Middle East. And the other thing about that particular stretch, and I know a lot of them have moved in recent years, haven't they, because of that activity with Yemen, but there's a lot of container shipping going through there as well. It's not just energy here now.

14:06Not at all. You've seen container shipping companies trying to do all sorts to do with it. They will take different routes, which are naturally longer, so they consume more fuel. So we've seen Maersk, one of the world's biggest container shipping companies, the Danish firm, actually put rotors, sails on its ships. Not canvas sails, I hasten to add, but a metal rotor to try and use wind power to decrease its fuel consumptions. There are all sorts of different knock-on effects. And we're currently seeing oil and gas prices going up. That's kind of the first, most direct version of where maybe prices go up and inflation could creep up.

14:39But economists and financial markets are constantly looking for any second or third round implications. such as, say, higher freight costs knocking into higher, you know, say, food or clothing prices for exports, or even things like fertiliser or metals, because Qatar, world's biggest provider of sulphur, which is using sulphuric acid, which then is using heap leaching copper mining, and therefore that's one of the reasons why the copper price is up. So Qatar, world's biggest producer of liquefied natural gas. A side product there is urea, that's using fertiliser. So fertiliser prices have been going up, what's that going to do to food prices?

15:12So those are the things that everybody's looking to see if they're filtered down the pipe. And I'm sure, and we've already heard Governor Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England talk about these, and given that we've got a big triple header this week of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, these issues will all be part of the central bank's thinking process, even if directly interest rates have little or no influence over what's going on in the Middle East, or food, or fuel, or fertiliser, and so on. Yeah, we had a question about that on the programme, actually, from a listener on Friday about that, about the changing in rates.

15:41Perhaps I'll bring you in on that in a moment. as well but um Rachel any of those things immediately having an impact on the business thinking of the those food prices perhaps obviously to you energy prices being an impact yet or is it just kind of an overall confidence issue um I think as as we said before like when we're making like Fernrose is a finished product it means that you've got different elements that can be impacted by price so obviously the biggest part for us is always the fruit that's in our jams and the prices of that that changes but then also there's the rises across supply chain so for instance like if the cost of your labels goes up or if the cost of the jars goes up um so what i tend to find is if we have like an increase in some areas we can kind of find that back from different areas um that being said we're definitely at a point where our product costs more now than it did like three years ago for instance to make and that's because of like a rise in costs across supply chain.

16:43So whilst there'll be a period of time that businesses can kind of, every business will be different and they'll be able to kind of mitigate those rises, there does come a point where you might have to consider kind of passing that on and what that looks like. And I always think it's about building relationships with your manufacturers, with your retail partners, so that you can ultimately all work together. Because what we want to try and avoid is passing on any rises in costs to consumers because they have enough to do at the moment and also we want to always you know deliver a product that has a fair price so I think it's always just about working together being honest and transparent about where you are and where you think the next 24 months will take you.

17:26And we were talking about this with the guys on Friday Rachel as well just about that that's sort of for a consumer facing business like you what just even just hearing you know that oil prices are going up again that feeling you touched on here that consumers have got a lot on their minds at the moment that feeling that they're being squeezed what that does then to a customer going forward and the impact that can have have on you guys yeah and i think that's that's when the challenges always come i think often when when we have uncertainty that that's sometimes even more challenging than hearing the bad news because i think sometimes if you know if you've got the bad news then you can figure out the solution to it but when people are um unsure what's happening that can um like you said worry people more um so i think it's always just it's a kind of kind of build towards transparency and finding out the answers as quickly as we can so that we can share and be honest but also like look for alternatives like you know it's a really really small example but perhaps if the oil costs you know if oil costs are rising the way that they are doing that the impact that that can have for instance in our businesses on like plastic tubs and so if you're doing larger portions of jam and they're coming in like those big plastic buckets we don't really want to use them anyway from a sustainability perspective because you know they're not good for our environment so perhaps that would mean that would encourage us to already be looking for alternatives and so like using tanks for instance so that you can and I really believe in that like for our product when we're shipping in larger volumes like if we can produce it in tanks that can be recycled like reused that's better than producing it in like a single-use plastic that ultimately is just going to get thrown away.

19:06I know a lot of you in a similar position to Rachel running your own businesses. So what kind of decisions and things are you making or mitigations? 85058 if you want to share your experience with us. 08085 909693. The WhatsApp. Now something a little bit different this Saturday at Wembley Stadium. Yeah, there will be marching bands. There'll be cheerleaders. There'll be hundreds of giant university American football players in the UK for the first ever regular season college game to take place in the UK. University of Kansas will be playing Arizona State. It's an idea called the Union Jack Classic, which has a contract to return to Wembley for multiple years, as Brian Dubiski, one of the co-founders of the event, has been telling us.

19:48But college football has been successfully travelling for a season-starting showpiece at the Aviva Stadium over in Dublin for the past few seasons. So how can their event compete? It was something we chatted about, but first of all, why London? The NFL has been over in London for three decades and they've invested a lot of money in the infrastructure and the education of American football. We are avid college football fans. The game is different. It's a word we like to use almost of tribalism of live and die by how your team performs. And we just thought it was time to share that with the world.

20:21We questioned ourselves for several years why no one was bringing college football over. talked about it over dinner and a pint of beer one too many times and we decided to move forward. So who do you hope is coming to this game then? Is it people who've been to Tottenham or been to Wembley say to watch the NFL games and are excited and want to see more American football? Is it just a casual sports fan? Is it someone who's never watched anything before? Who is it you're hoping turns up? Well I think the NFL fans are the easiest one to identify with just because they already are fans of American football in general.

20:54What we've really done is we've invested a lot of money back into the community, specifically the growth of American football through BAFA and the Bucks system. We've made it very family friendly, so we've priced our tickets accordingly lower than most of the NFL tickets so that a family of four can come to the game. So really, we're tapping into both sides of that equation. Then we'll also have another 15 ,000 fans traveling from the States. Are you a bit unlucky in terms of where your game is going to fall? Because that game is what they call game zero, right? It starts the whole season. And so as a result, there's masses of razzmatazz that go around it.

21:32The big American networks, ESPN send all their big stars out. You've got Pat McAfee, you know, one of the best no names in American kind of sports media down in Guinnesses and all that kind of stuff. And the Dublin itself is a much smaller city than London. So you can make it feel that a whole city has been taken over by this event. I don't know, does it sort of cast a shadow, cast an unfair comparison, I suppose, to your event? Yeah, I don't think so. The great thing is moving forward, there is no week zero. Beginning next year, week zero becomes week one. Working with the teams, they have the ability to move games around, right?

22:04So in the future, someone can come over and play a game in this same specific week and have an off week the following week because there's flexibility in the schedule now going into next year. So, you know, the first year, sure, there was a little angst and pushback just in, well, it's week three. We've got a game before and after. And now we've been able to move some of those games to get both these teams over here. And the conferences now can reschedule and align an international game. So actually, we love the position we're in. And we have that same week that takes us, I believe, through 2029.

22:37So it's a multi-year agreement. And we'll be bringing college football over for the next three to four years. The media around all of this, Brian, in terms of building on it through that period then of the contract, it's going to be massive, isn't it? I say this as someone who does enjoy watching college football. It's hard to keep track of where it is on TV here in the UK. There was ESPN had something out here for a while. Then Sky took it back, who obviously have a lot of the NFL stuff here. Then it was on TNT for a while. It's on DAZN now. Would it be helpful to just have a stable partner to help kind of build that wider audience around it to get more people to come to those games over that period?

23:10Well, we would love that. The conferences, they have all of the rights to this game, even though it's an international carve-out, so to speak. So when that happens, you only have a handful of partners that can broadcast your games, right, because it's locked in. So it'll be nationally televised in the States on Fox. And we're lucky enough, as you're talking about ESPN and their college game day show, Fox has their equivalent of Big Noon Kickoff. So we will have that show live outside of Wembley Stadium for two hours before kickoff. It will be broadcast on your side of the pond on DAZN. And we're hoping to maybe expand that some and do some simulcast type platforms here in the future to where we can all work together to grow American football and viewership and fan bases and get people excited about the game.

23:55What looks like success this year then in year one to you? Oh, gosh, you're getting it off the ground. The heavy lifting has been quite right. I mean, you're bringing 300 big, huge human beings over on 777 jets and getting the properties aligned and the practice facilities. And then, of course, Wembley Stadium. You know, we chose Wembley for a reason because, number one, they have a field that's American football ready, but it's also iconic, right? So for the fan bases from the States traveling over, it's an amazing experience for them. And the players themselves are really excited about having the opportunity to play at Wembley Stadium.

24:30Brian Dubisky, one of the co-founders of what's called the Union Jack Classic, as Brian was saying, four years that they're going to be bringing in college football games to Wembley Stadium. Russ, you're a big NFL guy, but not so much a college football guy. I mean, that kind of speaks, I guess, to their challenge here. It does. I mean, I do actually try and watch a little bit of college, but if I'm subjecting my wife to the NFL on Sunday night, then subjecting her to college football on Saturday night is probably pushing my luck, if the truth be told. I'm slightly licking my wounds with Washington having got beaten overnight as well on the NFL front.

24:58On that, with the TV, the NFL has kind of built this audience here in the UK from scratch, I guess, really, because of having that stable. I mean, let's be honest about it always being on Sky and Sky giving it a bit of a push and everybody knowing and building a kind of community there as well. Is that going to be the challenge for something like this, as we were talking about there, if it's jumping around TV partner the whole time? Yeah, these things take time. I mean, Channel 4, I think, first covered the NFL on a Sunday evening, if you remember a highlight programme with Nicky Horn, I think, which I remember watching.

25:24An NFL blitz on a Saturday morning. Rachel, it speaks actually a little bit to the fragmentation of TV. Full stop. I'm not sure if it's American football that you're wanting on your TV. But just more broadly, I'm still, I don't know about you, still constantly surprised that no one has started re-bundling a lot of these streamers back together again. Are you? That would be interesting, wouldn't it? Yeah, I think. Because I don't know what your house is like, but mine's got an absolute zillion of the things. I think it'd be really interesting. And I think like that, again, it's that changing consumer behavior and getting people like building your audience base.

26:03I think that's really interesting. I was also really interested to learn about kind of the monetary value of diversifying the use of stadiums, which is something that passed me by. But I thought that was really interesting, especially with like Spurs, like the amount of money they've invested over the summer and the fact that perhaps a lot of that is linked to the fact that they're using their stadium for lots of different things. And again, I think that's really interesting and I guess a great thing for London. And I also think it's another interesting point around kind of that investment in London and how we could possibly replicate that in the north.

26:38Because I think that's really interesting as well. Yeah, those big events. And as part of the sort of rationale for the new Old Trafford and Manchester and Russell in a game that you love in cricket, what to do with great big physical bits for many months of the year and not being used for their primary purpose. No, I'm going to the Tottenham Hotspur game when Washington actually comes to play Indianapolis in a few weeks' time. I'm already chewing my fingernails about it. It's definitely a huge issue. They've got these huge assets that do depreciate and they're sat there doing nothing. It's really interesting, isn't it?

27:06Yeah, and race courses. They have more and more things on, whether it's second-hand book sales or wedding fairs. So you can see it at race courses as well. They're trying to generate extra revenues where they can. But the issue of the package is, if you look at the true global game, football, then you look at the number of subscriptions you need now if you want to watch every competition from next season I think you need three, four, five different subscriptions and for any fan even if they don't go to the games and sit at home that is a major financial commitment and at some stage you would hope from the fans perspective that somebody takes a look at the cost of participating in watch even if it's at home it's getting really pretty pricey and I think a conversation for another time because we're up against the news as well but the impact that has on all the other sports in this country too as well that it's very difficult to get a casual fan if you don't have Premier League football on your stream already.