In short
Smead Capital’s quarterly “Spring Book List” episode, mixing recent reads with investment takeaways (history of bubbles, markets, competition, and human nature) and answering client questions on energy and homebuilders.
Guests
None. Hosted by Cole Smead (CEO/Portfolio Manager) with Bill Smead (Chief Investment Officer/founder; “Dad”).
Guest backgrounds
Not applicable (no external guests).
Key claims
- The 1929 crash didn’t cause the Great Depression; the deeper driver was long-run loss of agricultural employment and cascading bank failures.
- Financial bubbles follow recurring “rhymes”: leverage supplies “oxygen,” and real estate bubbles require borrowed money.
- Tech/AI and computing are tools reflecting human experience; “reasoning” may not originate solely from brain sides (citing brain surgery conclusions).
- Competition is the key societal/business force; extraction can harm society even if it’s profitable.
- Energy: a 15–20 year rotational commodity bull market driven by scarcity/underinvestment; higher prices incentivize supply.
Notable examples
- Florida land boom (1920s) as a leverage-driven debacle; “Bitcoin-like” trading; land became worthless.
- Kirk Kerkorian’s rise from pilot/shuttle to building MGM; fair dealing even after a paternity accusation.
- China’s real-estate/condo “empty malls” and slow deflation of leveraged bubbles.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOQuarterly Book Discussion Kickoff
0:45 to 1:08
The Smeads introduce their quarterly book list and discuss their recent reads.
“This is our quarterly book list where we talk about books, books, and yes, more books.”
Exploring Andrew Ross Sorkin's Insights
1:08 to 3:28
Bill discusses Andrew Ross Sorkin's book on the 1929 market crash and its historical context.
“So to kick it off, the books we've recently read, what do you have on your list, Bill?”
Kirk Kerkorian: The Gambler's Journey
3:28 to 6:14
Bill reviews 'The Gambler,' detailing Kirk Kerkorian's rise in the casino industry.
“and immediately everyone wants to be like, oh, like that book is like a good picture now.”
Tim Wu's Age of Extraction
6:14 to 8:06
The Smeads discuss Tim Wu's book on societal impacts of technology and competition.
“Jon Favreau go out to Las Vegas, drive out there.”
Navigating Campus Speech Issues
8:06 to 9:59
Discussion on the book about freedom of speech on college campuses and its complexities.
“Yeah, because Tim really asked the question, what's beneficial?”
The History and Future of Christmas Trees
9:59 to 12:42
Exploring the cultural significance and economic challenges facing Christmas tree farming.
“For every action, there's an equal and opposite reaction.”
The Arctic and Global Aspirations
12:42 to 14:00
Discussion on Ken Rosen's book about Arctic ambitions and historical context.
“For example, what if you get your Louis Vuitton, you know, real Christmas tree and you pay an obscene amount of money?”
Exploring Arctic Exceptionalism and Social Tensions
14:00 to 17:09
Discover insights on Arctic exceptionalism and societal tensions in America.
“The Russians, according to Ken's writing, are really the people that consider themselves Arctic experts or Arctic exceptionalism to use the term that's been thrown around.”
Understanding the Role of Technology in Budgeting
17:10 to 21:56
Learn how technology can assist in financial planning and budgeting.
“And I had this conversation with Tom when we had him on the podcast is, I've used, in full disclosure, I've used Claude quite a bit and I've used Grok quite a bit, Claude more recently, a lot more.”
Podcast Promotion for Smead Capital Management
21:57 to 22:41
An introduction to Smead Capital Management and their investment philosophy.
“Hi, I'm Cole Smead, CEO and Portfolio Manager here at Smead Capital Management and host of this podcast.”
Show all 33 chapters
Insights from Original Sin and Nature vs. Nurture
22:42 to 26:18
Explore the impact of genetics and upbringing on personal development.
“The other book is Original Sin by Catherine Page Harden.”
Historical Perspectives on Financial Bubbles
26:19 to 28:00
Gain historical context on financial bubbles and their implications.
“And I think that's how we want to perfect the model.”
Understanding Margin Buying
28:00 to 28:29
Learn about the concept of buying on margin and its historical context.
“They started out, oh, you could buy a lot for - On margin.”
Examples of Economic Bubbles
28:30 to 29:12
Explore examples of economic bubbles and their impacts on markets.
“and I think the one thing that I like about the Boom and Bust book is that they give examples.”
Reflections on China’s Economic Challenges
29:13 to 31:04
Discuss the unique challenges faced by China's economy and real estate sector.
“The guy that ran the program said we have more candidates for CFA in the Far East than any place in the world.”
Cultural Insights from China
31:05 to 32:54
Gain insights into the cultural implications of China's one-child policy.
“Yeah, the interesting part, if you look at their book and you think about what we've seen and what we talked about with Too Big to Fail, levered real estate bubbles always deflate.”
The Importance of Civic Duty
32:55 to 33:58
Discuss the decline of civic responsibility in Seattle's community.
“Brewer, which is intuitionism, and then David Hilbert for formalism.”
Changing Generations and Responsibility
33:59 to 36:50
Examine how generational shifts have affected community involvement in Seattle.
“So that's – if you haven't been there, it's not what it used to be.”
Book Recommendations and Future Trends
36:51 to 40:56
Review notable book recommendations and discuss future market trends.
“The Kid Stays in the Picture, about Robert Evans, by Robert Evans and his closest associate.”
The Future of Natural Gas and Commodities
41:38 to 42:00
Analyze the future market dynamics of natural gas and commodities.
“Real simple, they're just going to buy back a lot of stock.”
Understanding Natural Gas Economics
42:00 to 43:22
Learn how natural gas pricing and pipeline logistics affect market dynamics.
“The other thing too is, you just mentioned natural gas.”
Shifts in Oil Investment Strategies
43:22 to 44:45
Explore how capital allocation and market perceptions are changing in the oil industry.
“Because that incentivizes entrepreneurs to say, if you give me that price and I can lock that in, I will go out and take that risk.”
Analyzing Past Oil Market Trends
44:45 to 46:07
Examine historical oil market trends and their implications for future investments.
“And the case that was made, I'll never forget this, in 20, it's like, well, those guys are idiots.”
Energy Sector's Economic Impact
46:07 to 47:39
Discuss the importance of the energy sector within the broader U.S. economy and investment strategies.
“but then again, like those are shorter cycle wells.”
Market Reactions to Economic Changes
47:39 to 49:56
Understand how market narratives shift in response to economic indicators and investor behavior.
“And so it's now gone from 2.1 to, say, 4.5.”
Home Builders and Affordability Challenges
49:56 to 52:05
Analyze the challenges home builders face amidst rising costs and affordability issues.
“And what markets love to do is to take the prior narrative and blow it up.”
Government Policies and Home Buying
52:05 to 54:38
Explore potential government policies influencing home buying and generational wealth transfer.
“Right now, a couple can only give their child$19 ,000 per spouse that you can give$38 ,000 each year to your kids.”
Investment Strategies for Home Ownership
54:38 to 55:41
Learn about the benefits of home ownership as an investment strategy over time.
“Well, by the way, my friends, we've had fiscal problems for five years that we're begging on and we didn't care about it for most of the five years.”
Future Outlook for Home Builders
55:41 to 56:00
Discuss potential indicators of success for the home building industry moving forward.
“that people, the average age of a first-time home buyer is 40 years old, which just blows my mind away.”
Understanding Wealth Creation and Market Behavior
56:00 to 57:30
Learn how forced savings plans outperform typical stock market behavior.
“70 % or 80 % of adults in the United States.”
Risk and Return in Home Building
57:30 to 1:00:08
Explore the dynamics of home building markets and investment risks.
“So for example, let's say you have a stock market does poorly and you're like, huh, that thing just went down 25 or 30%.”
Demographic Trends Impacting Housing Demand
1:00:08 to 1:02:05
Understand the influence of demographic shifts on future home buying.
“can build you a certain amount of net worth in a non-scalable way.”
Parenting Insights and Upcoming Book Recommendations
1:02:05 to 1:04:01
Hear about parenting books and the potential for future episodes.
“Now, they're waiting later in life to get married.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:21Welcome to A Book With Legs podcast. I'm Cole Smead, CEO and Portfolio Manager here at Smead Capital Management. At our firm, we are readers and we believe in the power of books to help shape informed investors. In this podcast, we speak to great authors about their writings. The late, great Charlie Munger prescribed using multiple mental models and analysis. We analyze their work through the lens of business, markets, and people. Today's date is March 30th, 2026. This is our quarterly book list where we talk about books, books, and yes, more books. Hosting this with me is our chief investment officer and founder, Bill Smead.
1:00I call him Dad. Dad, thanks for joining me today. Great to be with you. So as we usually do, we'll talk about books we've recently read, books we're in, and then also books we've had recommended. So to kick it off, the books we've recently read, what do you have on your list, Bill? Well, digging constantly the last year into all the manias of recent modern history in the United States led me to read Andrew Ross Sorkin's book, Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History, which was really good in that it re-summarized a book I'd read recently, Once in Golconda, which was basically the main resource for Andrew Ross Sorkin.
1:43And he added a lot of very interesting personal tidbits about major players in the 1920s and 1930s that weren't in the Golconda book. And again, so important in our business to appreciate and understand history and the way that history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. And you could hear the rhymes. A lot of people think that the stock market crash caused the depression of the 1930s, and only 1 % of Americans owned common stocks at that time. So that was not the story. It might have been a trigger, but it was not the story. The story was we lost all the agricultural employment in about a 50-year time period.
2:34Yeah, but often the real estate happened before 29 to where the liquidity in the market of, call it, risk-taking was already disappearing. Yeah, 12 % of Americans – remember in 1925, most of America lived on the eastern seaboard. And the population was in the eastern part of the United States. 12 % of the American adults participated in the Florida land grab, which ended up being just a total debacle. Lots were sold to people at exorbitant prices. They traded among each other, kind of like Bitcoin has been trading. And then what ended up happening is the land ended up, in a lot of cases, being temporarily worthless.
3:16And then ultimately, the cities of Palm Beach and Miami and Coral Springs and other places all developed out of that. Yeah. By the way, a lot of people have recommended reading that book. and immediately everyone wants to be like, oh, like that book is like a good picture now. His best book that I've ever read, you know, was about 08, 09. And the fun part to that book was, you know, Too Big to Fail. The whole fun to the book was, it was just fun to figure out what was actually going on when you lived through it but you weren't getting to see all these discussions and things. And so I point that out because I think everyone looked and said, oh, I might have a tool book for the next problem.
3:59And the answer is we always have the best stories once the animals are already out of the barn. Yeah. 08 was a black hole, right? There were just so much you didn't know. To Cole's credit, something that was very valuable to our company and our investment decisions back then was we decided to take a look at who all was employed in one way or another in residential real estate because the leverage upon leverage upon leverage that was being used in financing of the residential world was what made the depths of that such a problem. And Cole figured out that only 4 % of adult employment was real estate agents, title companies, anybody involved in the process of building, financing.
4:48Yes, we figured you could have like 3 % pick up unemployment from unemployment from that. Yeah, you could lose. But it'd be tough to get five or 10%. Yeah, you could lose 60 % of the jobs in that arena. And that was only going to drive us to about 10 and a half percent inflation. And if we were - Unemployment. Unemployment. And if we were only going to limit unemployment to 10 and a half percent, it allowed us to be bullish about the future. Because I - And Amity Schley's book, The Forgotten Man. Forgotten Man. Which was a really good frame to that. That was, that's what led us. That's what caused me to go to Cole because we looked and said, okay, she did a great job of explaining what happened and how big of a factor the agricultural employment was because that means any bank that was in an agricultural area, people were losing their work.
5:36They were losing their home and there was no deposit insurance and it just cascaded down. And a shameless plug, we've done Amity for both The Forgotten Man as well as her other book, The Great Society, which we did for the Oasis a couple of years ago. So those are shameless plugs, but Amity is great. What other books do you have? Maybe the most entertaining book that I've read in a long, long time, The Gambler, which is the story of Kirk Kerkorian, how penniless dropout Kirk Kerkorian became the greatest dealmaker in capitalist history by William C. Rempel. I mean, that book is just – it's just so good.
6:11I mean, it deserves to have a movie made out of it. It's so good. so the immigrant family learns how to fly a plane comes out to southern california and starts flying people around because he but he because his skilled pilot is in the service and expands his skill pilot and gets out of it and then he creates kind of a regional carrier he he ends up buying western airlines he uh goes to he's shuttling people his shuttle business taking people from Los Angeles to Las Vegas, kind of in that Swingers movie, you know, the guys go from LA and Swingers. Yeah, Vince Vaughn and Jon Favreau. Jon Favreau go out to Las Vegas, drive out there.
6:55Well, he was shuttling people and he ended up building the two largest casinos. He built the MGM. And the great thing about it, it's like one of the greatest entrepreneurial stories I've ever read. But what was so cool about the guy was not necessarily for religious reasons, he just dealt fairly with people everywhere along the line, which I just thought that was just so wonderful about the book. Even to the point of a lady that accused him of being the father of her child, which the test proved was not true, he went ahead and paid for that kid to to be well taken care of as it grew up because he got close to the child.
7:41Yeah. And then we both read the age of extraction. We had Tim at the Oasis. Tim at the Oasis. And boy, the recent news just this week about Facebook getting sued for extracting out of kids and now kids having mental health problems. Very timely, Age of Extraction by Tim Wu. Yeah, because Tim really asked the question, what's beneficial? And you guys don't know this on the podcast, Tim is famous for coining the term net neutrality, which we have been very critical of the idea of net neutrality for much of our time. If you haven't figured this out yet, despite that, we're pragmatists. and we know that a lot of solutions are not easily solvable.
8:34And where Tim really is, and I guess an agreement with our view of the world, which is like the most natural force you always have to have at present is competition, right? Because that's what creates the creative juices to make business more efficient and capital structure, et cetera. And that was one of his big things. Is it really a competitive landscape? That was his kind of open-ended question. And we generally, regardless of the side of the aisle, you're on, we would generally agree with someone asking that question. Is it that competitive? And I think that's one of the things that even though we disagree with Tim's view of the world in net neutrality, we agree with a lot of them, but like what's good for our society is a really big open question right now.
9:14Yeah. And then we read Campus Speech by Chemerinsky and Gilman. And it's a great book if that subject of freedom of speech on college campuses is a big issue now, right? We've had practically intellectual wars going on at college. But I kind of had a headache by the time I got done because it was like almost every one of the key subjects ended up being kind of a catch-22. In other words, if you do this, there's a whole set of repercussions from solving that problem will cause new problems. Yeah, it's Newton's third law. Yeah. Right? For every action, there's an equal and opposite reaction. Yeah.
10:02And full disclosure, that book came up because I saw that Erwin Chemerinsky had co-authored the book with Howard Gilman. I hope to God nobody knows this, but I actually went to college with Erwin's son, Adam Chemerinsky. So I reached out to an old fraternity brother of mine, said, hey, I see your dad's new book. I think it's pretty timely. We should have, you know, I'd love to read the book and would love to have him on the podcast. So we're working on trying to get Irwin's schedule down, but we'd love to talk to him about that. And I even knew, I just took one look at the name. I said, cool, this must be Chimber's dad.
10:37And it was. So let's see, on my list of things I read, so I read Evergreen by Trent Pressler. He really gives kind of, it's kind of an outside the box book. he really gives the history of trees. So for example, when I hear the word spread your seed, which is like an old word or old phrase, I don't think of like a farmer. I think of like a pine cone opening up, okay? And actually, if you look at the history of trees, trees, coniferous trees were referred to as like a virility, right? So the idea of spreading your seed is like a tree thing. It's not a farming thing. but I just say that because he starts out with and it's not just from Oh Brother Where Art Thou yeah he starts out with Christmas trees and it's kind of a fun thing because he bemoans the death of the traditional Christmas tree and he talks about how many fewer Christmas tree farmers there are and things like that which I think is funny because like that is an internal turmoil subject for myself I grew up in a family that did natural Christmas trees even though they got pine needles and all that I give mom a lot of credit Dad did very little of that, just so everyone's aware.
11:45Mom did all that. I went and got it. Yeah, I remember getting it occasionally when we were kids. But over time, even my mom ended up dominating that. So that's how I grew up. My wife decided the spores weren't good for her. So we've had fake Christmas trees, despicably fake Christmas trees. Now, in fairness, I might be lazier than my father because I've had to do nothing the entire time. And it looks great and all that kind of stuff, and the kids don't seem to care. But I, when I think of like nostalgia and being a kid, I think of like a real Christmas tree. And so he gives, he really just kind of talks a lot about the history.
12:19He gets into some very unique histories in Northern California, obviously coming from the Pacific Northwest. We own some lumber companies like a West Fraser in our international portfolio. So there's a lot in those trees that we think about. That being said, I think it's really just kind of something to take your mind and say, let's learn a different history, a unique history. And again, you know, I joked with him that maybe the new business model for the Christmas tree business is to take it to a premium or luxury good. For example, what if you get your Louis Vuitton, you know, real Christmas tree and you pay an obscene amount of money?
12:53And what I've learned in this lifetime is sometimes people will pay for that. Well, it's funny you mention that, Cole, because from northern California all the way through southeast Alaska is the largest farming that goes on in the entire United States, which is cutting down fir trees and then replanting. And it's a perpetual thing, right? It's a crazy – Yeah, but the demand has fallen way off. So supply is staying the same. Demand goes down. Well, for Christmas trees. And pricing, that's not good for Christmas tree farms, if you will. But not for the wood to do other things. Yeah. So his main thing is there's a death in the business.
13:35And ultimately, it's because the fake Christmas tree is actually way cheaper to produce. So if it's cheaper to produce, guess what happens in demand? It goes way up. And so we just bought a new one this last year with lights on it. And so that's kind of the question. It's like you're seeing classics apply and demand. Let's see other books. Polar War by Ken Rosen. this is not the first time the United States has had this grandeur of being big in the Arctic. The Russians, according to Ken's writing, are really the people that consider themselves Arctic experts or Arctic exceptionalism to use the term that's been thrown around.
14:13And the only issue is like all world powers aspire to this. I think that my big takeaway from Ken's book, and he does a great job of talking about this, is there might not be much to it. These things come and go, and the United States has done this before. Right after World War II, we did it. You mentioned Age of Extraction, which is a fun book. The Crazies by Amy Gamerman. I love this because, again, different history, and it gets to some of the tensions that we see in American society, rich versus poor. It gets into some of the issues like old versus new. This is the way things were. How are people going to get up to it?
14:48Effectively, she tells a story. She writes for the Wall Street Journal in the mansion section of the journal, which would be where they do all their like really cool like fun houses and everyone sits back and says to their spouse oh wouldn't be really cool honey if we could buy something like that someday and eventually some people do right and so that's what she writes for but she she goes out and she sees this person's property out near big timber montana near the crazy mountains aka the crazies and what happens is she looks at this property and a few months later this person is in a lawsuit with their neighbors over a wind farm.
15:21And who's putting up the wind farm? A poor ranching family who's been in the valley there for, you know, been near the mountains for over 100, 150 years. And so it's really the story of like these big properties, this local town issue. She talks about stuff where it's like the local county commissioners have to get together. And all politics are local, especially in Montana. So what happens is like, who wants to get in the way of these folks and, you know, have to have this be their job? because they took this county commissioner job assuming they had really nothing to do. And it's kind of like a notable thing in town.
15:52And sure enough, they wake up on a situation where neighbors are suing neighbors. And then you have things like zoning and power rules and all this stuff. She tells a wonderful history of it. But a couple of things I would tell our listeners, like if you're listening to us and you're on the East Coast, on the West Coast, all things are local. I mean, especially true on the West Coast. A lot of states like Arizona or Montana, they're just big, small towns, even if in our case in Phoenix, We're the fourth largest city in America and the fastest growing major city in America. It just reminds me the West is so untamed, not only in its geography, but really in relationship.
16:27It's so local and communal and unique in that respect. This is the 48th state. Correct. It's the last thing. Third youngest state in the union. Yeah, youngest of the contiguous 48. Let's see. Laws of Thought by Tom Griffiths. wonderful book for thinking about um i think the main thing i took away from his book was the a you know anything compute wise is just a reflection of humanity okay um and i and i say that because the positive it's just a tool um i like in getting overly excited about new technologies like this is like that'd be like getting excited about the hammer at one point in the development and a civilization.
17:09But here's another way of thinking about this too. And I had this conversation with Tom when we had him on the podcast is, I've used, in full disclosure, I've used Claude quite a bit and I've used Grok quite a bit, Claude more recently, a lot more. And I'll give it a project. So just as something like, what can I get my arms around? That's very complex, has a lot of data. And it would be very expensive to have someone do for me. I went out and I put my entire financial life into Claude. Why? Because I wanted to build a budget. The thing I've learned when you're young and poor, it's really easy to build a budget because there's not a lot of numbers to have to bring together.
17:48But when you get older and you get kids and you're married and your income grows, it's just a lot tougher to bring in. So I said, okay, here's a lot of data. I took my credit cards, my banking, my prior tax return, and my prior W-2 loaded in, had it built me a budget. and I suddenly felt like I was dealing with like a uh an intern where it's like you get it back hey did you think about this this and this and oh Claude says yes sorry I missed this and I should break out this and there it's kind of like you'd go back and forth with an intern on it so do let's use the investment business or finance it you know at at larger scale do they hire interns each summer yes they do hire interns each summer and are those people capable yes they're commonly capable.
18:32What do they lack? They lack a lot of experience on the subject matter. So therefore, they're learning to try these things. They have to teach them. They got to teach them. And so I'm watching an experience with Claude go on, not dissimilar to a good intern, you know, an intern that's better than the average. But again, I'm still having to spend time with it and teach it. Well, here's how I'd look at that. And when you run into this, you need to do this. And here's how I would recategorize that, et cetera. And again, if I use Tom's book as a picture, that is what it is. It is a reflection of the human experience and it's a tool that's reflective of the human experience.
19:05The one thing that I do want to mention in the book that was like mind-blowing. So Noam Chomsky, who's the famous linguist who did a lot of work on how to code linguistics, he said something in the book that was just earth shattering mind mind blowing where he said that the child that is born without intelligence or a system capable of doing so accomplishes a language and and and he he argues that it's it there's nothing really to explain the fact that the human can do that i'm sitting there reading that thinking he's right there is no really metaphysical reason to argue the child can do that.
19:47And yet it does. There is something what I would call awesome, innate or divine. Like it's so incredible, it's divine. So I said that when I chatted with Tom, I said that and then I explained, you know, something I talked that you and I had heard where we were at the COSM conference and one of the people speaking there, he went into this subject of where they've dealt with severed brains because of where there's epilogue leptic attacks because the misfiring of the two sides of the brain. So they sever the brain. And what they've learned in studies is that, you know, your left brained activities and your right brained activities, you know, have trouble understanding each other, at least metaphysically.
20:29And like your left side of your body or your left brain would, you know, obviously deal with your right side of your body and your right brain would deal with your left side of your body. So when they ask you a left brain question, you should respond. Like if you're doing a survey and you're clicking a mouse, you should respond ultimately with your right hand because it's a left-brained activity and that functions to control the right hand of the body. What they found is that you're just as likely to click with your left hand, which it makes no sense because metaphysically, it should only respond on the right side of the body.
20:59And so connecting those two ideas up, they are analogous to each other is ultimately, in other words, there's something divine about what the person did in a left-brained thought. And so I mentioned that to Tom and it's like, are there other divine experiences that humans do that breach the metaphysical reasoning? That is something I'm terribly curious about. Yeah. He said that in 2 ,000 brain surgeries that he's done, he concluded that reasoning doesn't come from either side of the brain. Yeah. He argues that there is something else. He argues for the soul. But I just say that because if you can't touch it and you can't see it, there's something awesome about that because you can't really meet it in the natural world.
21:49And so that's why I use the word divine. It's something above what we can expect logically. Past our pay grade. Yep. Hi, I'm Cole Smead, CEO and Portfolio Manager here at Smead Capital Management and host of this podcast. If you enjoy this podcast, I'd like to invite you to check out SmeadCap.com. At our firm, we are stock market investors. We advise investors who play the long game with a discipline that has proven success over long periods of time. Learn more about our funds at smeadcap.com. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including loss of principle.
22:24Please refer to the prospectus for important information about the investment company, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Read and consider it carefully before investing. Smead Funds Distributed by Smead Funds Distributors, LLC, not affiliated. Let's see. The other book is Original Sin by Catherine Page Harden. She goes by Page. This was a weird book because, you know, a lot of these authors we get to talk to, they typically are closer to your age. And so I'm now talking to a woman who was born in, I think, 82 or 83. It's like talking to a peer. It's like talking to someone you went to high school with.
23:03It was super weird. where it's like, this is so bizarre. I mean, I'm talking about someone who's roughly my age, which I'd like to think of myself as a younger man. My teenage daughters called me an old man all the time. So I'm getting used to it at least quickly. But her book is mainly, a lot of her work has been done around, you know, off of some of the twin research out there. So what was the documentary about the three people, identical triplets that were separated at birth? identical strangers. And so it follows a lot of the logic and there's research done in that where what they found is that twins, when separated at birth, for example, tend to fall into similar industries, tend to have similar religious practices and fervor for those religious practices.
23:53And a lot of it's actually explained by who they are physically is what they are. And her work gets into that. You can see traits where it's like, Like, okay, are they predisposed to committing crimes or doing things they shouldn't, et cetera? There are elements of that. And so it's not Minority Report where you're doomed to that, but there are elements of that. The second thing she talks a lot about, and this comes out of her experience with like a fundamentalist Christian household, was that, okay, what do you learn from your parents? So she talks a lot about the book, about like biblical view, which she does not practice.
24:26You know, she's not like a practicing Christian. She does not go to church. But she talks a lot about the context of that. And what she really argues is, yes, your DNA codes you. But secondly, your parents code you. So in the whole nature versus nurture debate, you're coded by not just who you are physically. You're coded by the nature you're raised in. And then the last part she really makes the case for is that does not make you a victim though, right? She quoted the Bible, which says you're a sinner by nature and choice. and but she's but she points out that it's nature and choice just like it's nature and nurture you choose to do that or not and she talks about kind of the paradox it's like the victim's paradox like yes you might not have been born to the greatest home situation you might not have the parents but you control your destiny even though all those things do affect you and and can cause issues in your life and so she does I think what was a really pragmatic way of trying to you know meet those things as they are for that discussion um and and it was just it was a very cerebral conversation i think it's a very healthy conversation because i mean bill knows this but i very much um like to dunk on the millennials that are like oh you know the boomers have really like left us as bag holders wah wah wah as though like you don't have the ability to get up tomorrow and do what you want to do and the future is always bright so i think i think what i think what her book does a good job of explaining like who you are, where do you come from, how are you made, how are you parented, and how does that help inform you what you need to do in decision making?
26:03Cole and I both come from a family. The Smead family like to take small financial risks. So we got into a business of taking financial risks and we feel comfortable with that because it was in the family gene pool. Yeah, I would argue to add on that, they didn't take big enough risks on scalable things. And I think that's how we want to perfect the model. So let's pivot to what you're reading right now. Yeah. Well, again, trying to get deeper into financial bubbles. You know, I hope everybody knows that in 1636, you could trade one fine tulip bulb for a house, a fine carriage and two good horses to about seven or$800 ,000 in today's dollars.
26:49So as we watch in the markets right now, Bitcoin rollover and various manias, it's just great to step back into the history and just make sure you understand the timelines and you understand the difference. There are differences, but there are rhymes, and we have to know those rhymes. Our job as we look after other people's money. What's the name of the book though? Oh, Boom and Bust, A Global History of Financial Bubbles by William Quinn and John D. Turner. And we've had William Quinn and John D. Turner on the podcast. They use like a triangle. They explain it kind of like a fire. Their view was that you have the initial spark.
27:39You have to have oxygen. And so what provides the oxygen? Historically, they argued leverage was a way to provide oxygen. Borrowed money. Yeah. And then their other question of how long it rages, I can't remember the third leg, but I want to say it was something like how economically damaging was it based on that? That's exactly how the bubble in Florida real estate happened, right? They started out, oh, you could buy a lot for - On margin. Yeah. Yeah, they give you a margin. Buy a lot and put 10 % down. Because I remember in Boardwalk Empire, the HBO television show with Steve Buscemi, the ugliest guy in the history of TV, where they allowed him to buy it on margin.
28:17You could just pay part of it up front like you would a futures contract. The other book that falls into that, if you're going to go read that, I'll give you one other lens to look through. Harold James' book, The Seven Crashes, which is also kind of in that ilk. and I think the one thing that I like about the Boom and Bust book is that they give examples. So they use the Australian real estate boom as an example in their book. And I think that was their first example. And what you'll learn from their book is real estate bubbles are truly different. As they say, they just hit differently. And so the real estate bubbles had to have leverage because you always got to have borrowed money on real estate.
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29:03So Cole and I had this wonderful experience where Cole was going through the CFA process back in 2011. And the guy that – I was finishing it back then, yeah. The guy that ran the program said we have more candidates for CFA in the Far East than any place in the world. And the one thing we never have is anybody ever go talk to them about investments, about what to invest in. And through coal, Tom Robinson, I think, was the guy. Shout out to Tom, by the way. Hey, Tom. So he said, we will fly you to Singapore and these first places. We're already going to be in Asia, yeah. Yeah, to these places. And we'll have you talk to these CFA societies.
29:52And we'll put you up and we'll fly you over there. And it was a great experience because we got to go into the heart, and that was at the height of the excitement about the brick trade. Or really China. The growth in China, which was causing a boom in Western Australia because that's where they'd load inputs in Australia on a barge and take it up to China. And it was causing this natural resources boom all the way around the world. And then soon after that, the guys from Australia did this show about the empty malls. In other words, they'd been building condo buildings, and people were buying these condo units as investments like hotcakes, yet they're all empty.
30:46No one was living in them and no one was going to the malls that were built in the same area of the cities where all these new condo buildings were being built. And that is a perfect picture of what you're talking about in the financial bubbles. And now the banking system in China has been poisoned by the fact that there's a lot of default associated with that. Yeah, the interesting part, if you look at their book and you think about what we've seen and what we talked about with Too Big to Fail, levered real estate bubbles always deflate. If you're in a democracy, they deflate quickly. If you're in a communist society, they deflate slowly.
31:32I think that would be the one lens I would say. Those bubbles were there, but in the case of China, it's just taken years. And if you look at the stock returns, you look at the banking returns, et cetera, it's happened very, very slowly over time. So on our way over to fly the second time, Cole didn't go. I went to Shanghai and Beijing. And on the flight over, I told Cole's mom, Becky, I said, honey, I said, I want you to realize that every single person you're going to interact with while we're in China under the age of 35 is an only child. and that just, you know, for somebody that, you know, grew up in a family of four and we have five kids ourselves, I mean, you don't think about that.
32:17And that also means mostly male because they all wanted a name bearer. Yeah, infanticide. And so therefore – Infanticide. So there's way more boys than girls and every one of them is an only child. And I thought – my mom was an only child and she was a wonderful woman but she was a little psycho for that reason. And imagine the whole nation of people that are a little bit affected by being an only child. Yeah, let's see. The book I'm just cracking now is The Great Math War by Jason Socrates Barty. He's giving a history of really math and he does it through three people, George Cantor, which would be theory, L.A.J.
32:56Brewer, which is intuitionism, and then David Hilbert for formalism. And so I've kind of been in this like short history anthology, like Tom Griffith's book was a great short history of like, how do we get to where we are in compute? And so kind of like the wider math angle is something I was looking for when I found that book. Let's pivot to, you know, what you've had recommended to you or books that you're waiting to read. Yeah. A Will to Serve is actually a self-written book by a guy by the name of Jim Ellis. and I've actually been tempted. One of the books I'm tempted to write is I've been told by a number of people that since I didn't grow up in Seattle and I came there in 1980 and I lived there for 40 years and I was heavily involved in the Rotary Club and we attended church there, et cetera, I picked up a great view.
33:51Well, my biggest argument of what's gone wrong in the city of Seattle is - Well, just by the way, if you don't know this, like downtown Seattle is not what it used to be. So that's – if you haven't been there, it's not what it used to be. So what's gone wrong is the people that came before my generation, my parents' generation, they fought in World War II, and they had a strong sense of civic duty. And the number one citizen of civic duty was this Jim Ellis. And he led the effort to clean up Lake Washington when in 1950s and early 60s, you couldn't swim in Lake Washington. It was so polluted. So they cleaned up the sewage system.
34:37They did the same thing for the Puget Sound. And that's not a problem in Seattle right now. But what is a problem is there used to be a wonderful balance between the business community, the body politic, and government service. So the two senators from the state of Washington were two of the most powerful senators in the country. The Speaker, the head Senate guy, and Henry Jackson, they were super strong. The Gold Dust Twins. Yeah, they were there to bring federal resources back to all the major military operations that are strategically in the far northwest corner of the United States, which helped the Boeing Company, which was the largest economic engine in the local area.
35:25So the Boeing company got along great with the body politic. And then everybody felt a sense to serve. I was part of the largest rotary club in the United States at that time at the peak, 736 people. Started the Medic One program nationwide. That was started in Seattle. And what's happened is as the most successful people the last 25 or 30 years became a completely different generation, that the sense of responsibility to take care of the civic part of your community disappeared. So are you like saying that the millennials right, that the boomers just created bag holders? Is that weird? I'm teasing.
36:05Well, again. But to your point, I mean like many of the wealthiest people in society are boomers today and it doesn't seem to have changed the leadership. Well, think about it. We had the two wealthiest people on the planet either come from Seattle and start their business in Seattle or come to Seattle, raise the money for your business, and become the wealthiest back-to-back. And the local, whether it be Catholic Community Services or Salvation Army or Seattle's Union Gospel Mission, were begging everybody else for money because they were not getting – the most successful people in the city were not taking care of the civic side of the city.
36:49And that has hurt the city. Let's see. I got a couple books here. The Emergent Mind by Gaurav Suri. um i also have uh streetwise by lloyd blankfine he's been out kind of doing a roadshow tour um it'd be fun to have him on uh let's see our colleague will recommended the house of fidelity by justin bear which obviously is the history of fidelity and then the last book i just had handed to me that i haven't i've read it before but i i was reminded to come back and read it again was worldly wisdom uh which was munger's talk at stanford uh in the 90s um and i got a little green copy of that. I got one more.
37:27I forgot. The Kid Stays in the Picture, about Robert Evans, by Robert Evans and his closest associate. If you've seen the show The Offer, which is a show about the making of The Godfather, you met Robert Evans. And I'm guessing that this is going to be just a fantastic book. Yeah. So let's see. So to cap it off, we usually go to a couple of questions And I had gone to our client service team and just asked, like, hey, what are things you're getting questions on? And the first question that we get very commonly – I know I was on the road. You were on the road. Will energy stocks fall once the U.S.
38:07stops bombing Iran and the strait is open again? Yeah. So I'll be a little wonky with the first answer to that question. We received a chart in April of 2020 that showed that – We had the chart numerous times before that. Yeah. The commodities were the cheapest relative to common stocks in the 220-year history of the United States. The prior low points were at the bottoms of the Depression in 1932, at the bottom of the Depression in 1875, and at the bottom of the Depression in 1825. And so the answer is we are in probably a 15 to 20-year time period that began in 2020 where we have a rotational bull market in commodities based on scarcity, et cetera.
39:01Underinvestment. Underinvestment and scarcity. And we've seen it so far. Oil took off from 20 to 23. It corrected for a couple of years. We'll be happy to tell you how painful that is because you have to stay involved in it because we think it's going to be better later. And then the next leg starts. So we are in a rotational bull market in commodities. And over the course of the 15 years that end 2035, we expect that commodities will outperform common stocks like they have in all past mean reversion trades that started out the same way. Yeah, and one of the things that I think we have thought a lot about is, okay, so oil's up roughly, call it 50 % year-to-date, the commodity itself.
39:50So I go out and look at the stock and say, what are they up? Well, they're up about 50%, which doesn't make any sense just so we're all on the same page. Because if you look at, say, the EBITDA margins those businesses make, when your revenue goes up 50%, your profits don't go up 50%, your free cash doesn't go up 50%, they could double or triple. And in many cases, their free cash on a daily basis has tripled. And so a company is a leveraged way to suck up pricing power and thus returns when abnormally high returns come about. How do you get abnormally high returns? When there's a lack of competition relative to the change in supply.
40:25Yeah, the ESG people scared everyone out of the industry for about four or five years under the idea we were going to make a complete transition away from carbon fuels. and now AI comes on and you're using a massive amount of natural gas to make electricity and all of a sudden you realize, wait a second, we need oil and gas and we have not been poking holes in the ground for the last five years because we were shamed into not doing it. We hope you're enjoying the podcast. You know, we work hard putting together this show, but we work even harder for our investors at Smead Capital Management. At Smead, we believe in disciplined investing.
41:06which is why the Smead funds have a proven track record of long-term outperformance. If you're an investor who plays the long game and want to invest in wonderful companies to build wealth, we invite you to visit SmeadCap.com. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including loss of principle. Please refer to the prospectus for important information about the investment company, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Read and consider it carefully before investing. Smead funds distributed by Smead Funds Distributors, LLC, not affiliated. Yeah, so what I'm probably most excited about is when you start to see these quarterly reports and companies are explaining how much money they're making on a per day basis, because if the stocks are not responding to the level that they should, what are these companies going to do?
41:56Real simple, they're just going to buy back a lot of stock. Buy back stock or swallow each other. So I think that's where we're going. The other thing too is, you just mentioned natural gas. And if our listeners don't know this, the value of natural gas is not based on how cheap it is to extract natural gas. I'll give you an example. If you go look at Waha pricing, which would be the pricing you roughly get in Texas or ACO, as they call it when you're up in Alberta, you'll see those prices are really low. In fact, if you go talk to the companies we own, like, for example, Diamondback Energy, they'll tell you they don't make any money.
42:30They actually lose money in their gas. So how is a company losing money in gas? And supposedly we're going to use all this for AI. Well, it's because you don't actually make money in gas. You make money in gas that gets out of the basin that it's in. And why those basins are so cheap is because it's gas that doesn't get out. So what do you get out with? You got to have a pipeline. And so when we talk about how do you get more than that gas when a country like Qatar goes offline? Well, the answer is it takes time and money because that's how you get things out of these basins through pipelines or transportation or to get it to a port.
43:06And so we're in this, like to your point about scarcity, we're in this old economics paradox where it's like we have an economic problem we need to solve. Huh, what's that gonna take, Bill? Well, it's gonna take time and money. And what's the only way to speed up time? Higher prices. Yeah. Because that incentivizes entrepreneurs to say, if you give me that price and I can lock that in, I will go out and take that risk. But so here's the weird part. The higher the prices go in the near term, the sooner the problem gets solved. Yeah. High prices lead to lower prices and low prices lead to higher prices.
43:44Now, here's one big catch. And there's a chart. I just put this out on my handle on X. And I'm sure we can reshare it. But if you look, historically speaking, the price of oil has roughly tracked the CapEx numbers. Yeah. Until the last four to five years, where prices have stayed relatively high and CapEx is not growing. Okay. And so I point that out because, well, what's different? Well, if we were having this conversation in the 2010s, and many of you know this, but we were bearish as all hell in the oil business. Because ultimately, it seemed like idiots ran those businesses. Well, and the brick trade excitement was causing there to be a huge premium.
44:23Correct. But the capital allocation of those businesses were poor, were terrible. So when you run all these - They were getting by. It was in a boom time. Nobody was paying attention to how well they were run, how efficient they were. Or their capital structure. Or their capital structure. So it was just a lot of idiots. All boats float. And then what happens is capital gets really scarce. And the case that was made, I'll never forget this, in 20, it's like, well, those guys are idiots. Those gals are idiots. They're never going to do things right. Well, now you look five years later, you're like, they've done a lot right.
44:57And they get this. So we always tell people, listen, people do not change over time or overnight. Like our wives would tell you we're not going to change overnight. But over time, yes, people adapt and they have time to adapt. And so what's interesting is to think about how many people said, you know, it will never change. And these companies have all adapted. Now, as we've talked a lot about the political regime and dialogue and ideas out there are that, oh, these guys and gals are always going to drill. And we're always going to have low oil prices. And because of that rhetoric, what is doubling down these energy companies on not investing any CapEx?
45:35Because they are so deathly afraid of the political environment that they sit around. Well, and they can benefit so much more from getting a much fairer price for what they're doing than they can by making it up on volume. I mean, there's a Costco in the retail world, right? And we own what we think is kind of the Costco in the oil and gas world, Diamondback Energy, because they can produce a barrel of oil at just about the lowest cost of anybody we take a look at. But the two - I would say maybe in the Permian, but then again, like those are shorter cycle wells. So there's inherent problems in any of these business models, which is that you ultimately at a high level, you have to reinvest.
46:18Yeah. So basically the next five to 10 years is going to be the cutting of the biggest fat hog we think that they've seen for a long, long time in their business. We were talking about this, but 2020 to your point was the best buying opportunity of the last 25 years in the oil business, full stop. To your point on a rotational bull market, commodities, the metals, actually their low was in early 16. So four years removed. But since oil is the biggest commodity market, you know, the dollar weighted low in commodities was in 2020. So last spring, the spring of 2025, where we had the tariff tantrum, that was the second best buying opportunity in the energy business.
46:56So if I was going to give you a way of thinking about it, are you getting the best buying opportunity at this juncture? No, the mean reversion in multiples has taken place. Here's the catch, and this is to Bill's point, is that the return on capital for these business is just going to be high. Going to explode. So it's like it's taking a business that can make mid-teens return on invested capital. And they might go out and stomp low to mid-20s for an elongated period of time off and on. And then as a backdrop to that, they're starting out being – the energy as a part of the S &P bottomed at 2.1%.
47:38Yeah. It was 16 % back in 2014 or something like that. Yeah. And so it's now gone from 2.1 to, say, 4.5. But from the scheme of things, how important is it as a part of the American economy? And the answer is it's incredibly more important than 4.5. Well, yeah, and here's another, you know, kind of physics equation to add to it. You know, like we said, Newton's third law is for reaction. There's an equal and opposite reaction. So I remember the first week this took place, the stocks didn't even go up. Yeah. It was like a, who cares? Yeah. Because they're so used to getting tricked in the stocks.
48:13Or also like Venezuela was short and cute, but it was adorable and it was over. Yeah. Okay. So that was the first week. And then second week's like, hey, it's going to end right away. And the third week, it's like, it's not ending again. And now we're in the mode of like, people are kind of giving up on the short lived conflict. You know, we're not there fully, but we're almost there. Well, you've opened Pandora's box. Correct, so those stocks are catching a bit. Now, what else are we seeing? We're watching the big dominant, big cap tech companies have trouble for whatever reason. I don't know, the future is unknowable.
48:45But I point that out because if the cool kids were big cap tech and they lose their cool kid status, there is so much capital involved in that. You know, to quote, since you mentioned the commodity chart, that came from Barry Bannister. And I remember when he was talking about this in 2020, he said, yeah, when some of the capital comes out of the things that have been popular and goes into things like this, like the commodity space, he's like, it's going to be like shooting a fire hose into a teacup. Okay? And that is what is starting to happen. It's starting to happen. Where some of the capital tricking out and saying, hey, what if we should do something else?
49:19So I always like to say, you know, why did Willie Sutton rob banks? And, of course, the answer to that is? That's where the money's at. That's where the money's at. So from a historical perspective, where we are right now is Americans own more common stock, just for example, relative to real estate, than they've ever had. There's more confidence since the last 15 years had relatively short interruptions. The bear market in 22 and the 60-day bear market in 20 are basically the only interruptions from the bottom in 2009 to now. Therefore, people have been sold a bill of goods that all they have to do is own the S &P 500 index and live happily ever after.
50:03And what markets love to do is to take the prior narrative and blow it up. They're going to blow it up. So if Willie Sutton wants to rob banks, which is, by the way, what's happening in the market every day right now, the money is in the Magnificent Seven and the technology stocks that used to go with them. Yeah, people are hitting the bid. They're hitting the bid. They're saying, get me out of here. I'm going to go do something else. Now, it just so happens they're trying to get money out of private equity at the same time, which could make even more entertaining things happen. So the other question that we're getting a lot right now is, will home builders do well with all the affordability problems, high rates, high costs, et cetera?
50:47So I love this question because, you know, as an economic historian, Cole and I both love economic history. The weirdest thing is the homes that are built in the United States, the biggest home building booms were in 1972, 1978, and 1984. That's measured by how many homes were built divided by population. We are trolling around right now four-tenths of a percent of population, and the peak in 72 was 1.15%, 0.95 % in 78, and 0.85 % in 1984. Now, why is that important? Because the mortgage rate in all three of those instances was higher than it is right now. So this idea that all the problems of the home builders have to do with affordability problems is not the case.
51:56By the way, you weren't here yesterday. We were talking about what the body politic might do with this subject. And I got to thinking about it. Right now, a couple can only give their child$19 ,000 per spouse that you can give$38 ,000 each year to your kids. Well, what if the United States government said, hey, for the purpose of buying a home, we'll raise that number dramatically. To$100 ,000. To$100 ,000 or$150 ,000. Because what's going to happen is these baby boomers, we're all going to die in the not massively distant future. And would you rather have the inheritance be more valuable to the kids over their lifetime now?
52:51Or would you rather have them be fat and happy as a 60-year-old themselves? Without kids. Without kids. And so that hit us the last couple of days. When it's like a legacy issue, but here's another way. So let's just say, let's not play the cards on the table. Let's just play the players at the table, right? Like cards up, you know, what matters. I think this is all going on under the heading of really two primary thoughts kind of dominating the market right now. One, that this spike in oil prices is definitely going to cause an economic recession. now coming from the same people on wall street that said there can never be another recession said that no no no that said that 22's rate rise in rates was definitely going to cause a recession and they got that wrong and now now why do i mock that because if we're spending seven percent of our gdp on deficit primarily to medicare and social security can we have a recession my theory is we can't.
53:57We just can't, whether we like it or not, because we normally only spend that in deep recessions, okay? So is it going to be the economic problem people argue? I'm not buying that. I haven't been buying that and I'm not gonna be buying it until proven otherwise because as Munger says, fish where the fish are. And there just happens to be a lot of fish betting against that right now. Yeah, most people. And the key to success is weak competition. So that's the first thing. The second thing is the other big narrative going on that again, I think I was driving the home building stocks is back to your point of affordability.
54:29Well, if we're having this trouble in the oil market, do we have the same confidence around the federal government? What if we actually have some fiscal problems on our hands? Well, by the way, my friends, we've had fiscal problems for five years that we're begging on and we didn't care about it for most of the five years. Well, and also - Let me finish. Let me finish. So I say that because what is not being said is what could happen here is that the stock market gets poor enough in terms of doing poorly for forward returns for investors, the idea that investors won't go out and buy treasuries, the AKA risk-free rate, they will go buy treasuries.
55:08Or this takes me right back to, I came in the investment business in 1980. I started cold calling people in November of 1980. And I would call a business owner. And if they were willing to take my call. I'd ask them, what have they been investing in? They said, well, I own the building that my business is located in. I have two rentals. I have a couple of oil stocks and I own some gold. Okay. And that's what people are doing. So Cole's point is well taken. The fact is that people, the average age of a first-time home buyer is 40 years old, which just blows my mind away. In the last 12 months, that is.
55:52Yeah. And having someone loan you money for 30 years to buy an appreciating asset with tax-deductible interest is the greatest thing that happens to 70 % or 80 % of adults in the United States. You're much more likely to create wealth in a normal 20 or 30-year time frame from that forced savings plan than you ever would with the behavior of normal common stock owners, meaning people get into the stock market, does bad for a while, they get out of it, and then they're not around for when the rebound is. The human condition is not that high a percentage of people normally do well in the stock market, which is why they used to hire professionals to do it for them.
56:39But the S &P 500 has been almost a perfect place for 15 years and now is loaded with the stocks that are going to get robbed when Willie Sutton comes looking for money. Yeah, I think there's three things that can go well on the rate side for the home building business at large. One is how do you get out of these big government debts? It's called you put too much cheap money out there and you inflate your way the heck out of it. Inflate your way out. So will I be shocked if we wake up and the short end of the curve is at 3 %? No. Preview of coming attractions, my friends. That's one. Two is that stock market troubles become great for bonds because ultimately if you're not a volatile stock.
57:19You're scared. You're great because you're less – you get a fixed return and you have less volatility. So that's two. The third part to this I think is the interaction of this. So for example, let's say you have a stock market does poorly and you're like, huh, that thing just went down 25 or 30%. My home's gone nowhere. That seems like a much better place to invest. So where we get beyond this idea of affordability, rather it becomes a conversation of what's my opportunity cost. So just so the listeners know, Cole's college education was funded with 10-year zero-coupon treasury bonds that were paying 14 % compounded guaranteed by the United States government in a custodial account where I didn't have to pay the tax because it was – It was below the level.
58:11It was below the level. The threshold. Yeah. Yeah. So think about where we've come from. Well, and by the way, here's the other thing too. Here's some quick math if you want to use this as like a self-help thing. Let's say you have a mortgage that you'd write today at 6.5%, let's just say. Okay. So a 30-year fix at 6.5%. I think I saw that's what Wells was writing on earlier this week, 6.5%. Okay. Free advertising for Wells Fargo there. So at that rate, right, what does it take in after tax income? Well, you just take your tax bracket and, you know, so if you've got a 25 % tax bracket, you divide that by 0.75 and that would get you your pre-tax.
58:51Multiply it by 0.75. No, no, no. Divide it by 0.75. You get your pre-tax return that you're getting when you pay it down. When you'd also have to adjust that by is the tax deductibility. So you'd have to account for that too because you get to write off the interest. So you take that, you take off the interest that you get deducted from your taxes and it'd bring you somewhere down lower on your cost. Here's what I don't get. Most first-time homebuyers, everybody, they're not in high-tax brackets. Shock. So the people that benefit the most off of paying down their mortgage would be actually high-tax brackets because what it does is your high-tax bracket means your pre-tax return is higher compared to your after-tax money you pay your mortgage off with.
59:32So the idea that everyone would benefit from paying off their mortgage, you know higher incomes with higher tax brackets pay off benefit from paying off their mortgage if inflation's running high and you get a you have a low tax bracket with high deductibility you win but the problem is back to like smeeds playing these games that they could take risk you can't win a lot of money playing poker every night and that's what the smeed family learned you can make a lot more money day after day after day in the long run playing risk in the stock market to common stocks and it's a more scalable business.
1:00:06So the great part about a house is it can build you a certain amount of net worth in a non-scalable way. And they don't put the price in the newspaper every day. And that's what everyone's forgetting right now is when the S &P 500 turns sour and that price is in the paper every day, it's going to be crazy watching people fight to get out. Therefore, the home builders, one thing they have going for them right now is they're not a very big factor market cap wise in the S &P 500 index. If you look at the top 100 market caps, that's where the money is. That's where Willie's going to rob. Yeah. And just like where we've been in the last 12 months in the oil business, to go back to our prior question, the thing you really wanted to buy, if someone's like, hey, what do you want to buy?
1:00:53In the oil business, I call it torque, right? Where the revenue growth in the business relative to the fixed cost on operating leverage causes the free cash flow to explode. That's where we're at in the home builders right now. The most attractive risk, in my opinion, is where you get torque, where the change in the business prospects over the next two to three years can take the fixed cost structure and drive the highest amount of free cash flow growth. Because if you go out right now, it's like we're getting the most questions on the home builders. People think they have this very dour picture.
1:01:25We were joking about this the other day. If someone goes back and says, what were the best buying opportunities we ever had in the home builder business when no one could see a bright future? 2012, 2011. Okay. Or in the middle of the pandemic. It was the most – well, first of all, it was a depression in home building. Correct. It was the most anemic economic recovery coming off a deep recession in U.S. history because it was a recovery that didn't include home building. Yeah. And they beat President Obama up about that, but he had nothing to do with it. But here we are right now. There are more people between 25 and 40 than there's ever been in the history of the United States.
1:02:04It's a 30 percent larger group than when the baby boomers, who used to be the biggest group, came through that age. Now, they're waiting later in life to get married. If they're going to have a kid, they're waiting way later. But at some point in time, the set of circumstances might cause them to – for the guys to quit spending all their money in bad sports bets and volunteer to be civilized by a fine woman. And if that happens, there is going to be a steady stream of homebuyers for the next 10 years. So the demand for homes is going to be there. We don't get to choose when the high rates and the difficulties of right now abate, but you're likely to get better prices when there is no end in the difficulties in sight than you would if you wait.
1:02:56See, I forgot something earlier, but I will mention it because you're touching on it. Our buddy and friend, Superfan Steve, had two book recommendations. I'll dovetail what you said. He said the evolution of cooperation by Robert Axelrod. he said this kind of falls into the human behavior biology idea but on your note that you just touched on superfan steve's closer to my age and he said he mentioned to me that he's having his first child his daughter soon so he's been reading the expectant father by armin brought and he also says but if bill is offering any parenting classes to let him know so uh you know for all of our listeners that are in that season, we will have to do like the Bill's how-to guide of parenting.
1:03:44You know, at least I'm here functioning as an adult and I don't seem to have the, you know, miscoded DNA or parenting that's terribly ruined me. And I haven't done enough dumb myself. I think Cole wants to get me arrested because, you know, when I was growing up, it was spare the rod and spoil the child, right? So I don't think that flies in today's world. But, well, that's a nice compliment, but Steve, I, you might be able to do better. So we might have to do like a special episode where like Bill and Becky's how to parent, uh, in 2026 for all the millennials having kids and, and buying houses post the age of 30.
1:04:23Um, uh, dad, thanks for joining me today and sharing with our podcast listeners. What is on the Smead book list for our listeners. If you have a great book that you'd like to recommend email podcast at smeedcap.com. That's podcast at smeedcap.com. You can also reach out to us on X. Our handle is at smeedcap. We'll give you a shout out the next quarter when we do this again, like we do with super fan Steve. Thank you for joining us for a Smead book list on A Book With Legs podcast. We look forward to the next episode. Thank you for listening to A Book With Legs, a podcast brought to you by Smead Capital Management.
1:04:56The material provided in this podcast is for informational use only and should not be construed as investment advice. You can learn more about Smead Capital Management and its products at SmeadCap.com or by calling your financial advisor.
1:05:31Thank you.
From the publisher
What is the Smead Capital Management team reading, and what’s up next?
In this new quarterly ‘book list’ episode, value investors Bill and Cole Smead discuss memorable takeaways from books they have recently read – covering topics from financial crashes and speculative manias to genetics, technology and human behavior. They also discuss what they’re currently reading and preview what’s next on their list, while offering perspectives on today’s current market questions, including energy, housing, and where opportunities may lie next.
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